中流击水，革故鼎新——食品行业 2025 年度中期投资策 略 20250710 摘要 白酒行业正经历深度调整，供需关系变化显著，需求端升级与降级并存， 酒企主动调整供给节奏以适应市场新变化，产品和量价策略面临深刻变 革，建议关注产品结构均衡、库存健康的企业。 大众品领域重回渠道为王时代，新渠道如会员超市、零食量贩和直播电 商颠覆传统渠道，提供性价比更高的消费选择，实现结构性增长；新产 品如休闲磨鱼等细分行业创新迭代，实现高速成长。 白酒库存周期影响企业报表，当前处于主动去库存阶段，收入增速探底， 企业对库存和市场秩序管理更加科学，高端酒价格承压，中高档产品保 持消费升级状态，优选产品结构均衡、库存良性的企业。 新消费趋势下，零食连锁、折扣零售等模式创新企业快速发展，通过高 效率、便捷化、性价比方式实现结构性增长，投资逻辑聚焦渠道企业及 关联制造企业机会，具备产能和原料优势的企业持续占优。 休闲零食销售渠道呈现均衡发展趋势，会员超市、零食量贩、直播电商 等新兴渠道兴起，仓储会员制超市持续扩容，硬折扣模式带来效率革命， 零食量贩门店迅速抢占下沉市场，相关企业享受行业红利。 Q&A 2025 年食品饮料行业的整体投 ...

Core Viewpoint - Haitian Flavor Industry has officially launched its global public offering, planning to issue 263,237,500 shares with a price range set between HKD 35.00 and HKD 36.30, expected to be listed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange on June 19, 2025 [1][3]. Offering Details - The company plans to publicly offer 15,794,300 shares in Hong Kong, accounting for approximately 6.00% of the total offering, while 247,443,200 shares will be offered internationally, making up about 94.00% of the total [3]. - The company may issue an additional 39,485,600 shares if the overallotment option is not exercised, or up to 41,854,700 shares if the option is fully exercised, leading to a maximum total of 320,886,400 shares available for global offering [3]. Cornerstone Investors - Haitian Flavor Industry has secured cornerstone investment agreements with several entities, including HHLRA, GIC, and UBS AM, committing to purchase shares worth approximately USD 595 million at the indicative price of HKD 35.65 per share, totaling around 131 million shares [4]. Financial Performance - The company reported a revenue of CNY 256.1 billion in 2022, a year-on-year increase of 2.42%, but faced a decline in net profit by 7.09% to CNY 61.98 billion [8]. - In 2023, the company experienced its first revenue decline in nearly a decade, with revenue dropping to approximately CNY 245.6 billion, a decrease of 4.10%, and net profit falling to about CNY 56.26 billion, down 9.21% [8]. - However, in 2024, the company rebounded with a revenue of CNY 269.01 billion, a year-on-year growth of 9.63%, and net profit reaching CNY 63.44 billion, up 12.75% [8]. Product Performance - The core product categories, including soy sauce, seasoning sauces, and oyster sauce, all saw revenue growth of nearly 10% year-on-year, with respective gross margin increases of 2.07%, 1.95%, and 4.69% [9]. - The "other" product category has also shown significant growth, with year-on-year increases of 32.61%, 19.35%, and 16.75% from 2022 to 2024, indicating the company's efforts to diversify its product offerings [10]. Strategic Significance - The IPO is seen as a strategic move to enhance the company's global presence and brand image, with plans to focus on markets with strong consumer bases and high demand for seasoning products [10]. - The company aims to utilize the proceeds from the global offering for product development, technological upgrades, capacity expansion, and enhancing its global supply chain capabilities [5].

新消费系列电话会：大众品跟踪 20250505 摘要 • 海天销售为完成考核任务可能少报库存，导致实际库存高于报告的 24%， 或达 24.5%，影响公司对市场需求的准确评估和库存管理。 • 二季度目标完成难度大，餐饮市场恢复不及预期，居民渠道增速放缓，小 品类动销不畅导致经销商库存积压，影响整体销售增长。 • 2025 年沙拉凉拌汁市场表现逊于去年，缺乏明星产品，增速放缓，对整 体销售贡献减少，需关注新品研发和市场推广。 • 海天增加费用投放以应对激烈的市场竞争，费用投放侧重居民渠道，加强 对二套网络经销商的扶持，以提升市场份额。 • 百润股份 4 月线下发货额同比下滑，强爽、微醺和清爽等主要产品均有不 同程度的下滑，经销商库存压力增加，授信额度大幅减少。 • 百润股份动销量下滑主要受经济环境和 Rio 价格线下行影响，经销商和渠 道利润减少，需关注市场拐点和新品推出。 • 百润股份收紧销售费用以保证利润值，但若 6 月销售不达预期，将增加费 用投入，同时积极解决库存问题，逐步恢复市场价格。 Q&A 近期海天味业的发货情况和库存压力如何？对二季度的展望是什么？ 今年 4 月份，海天味业的发货情况较为一般，出 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the company with a target price of 51.20 RMB [7][8]. Core Views - The company's Q1 performance exceeded expectations due to significant cost benefits, with revenue and net profit increasing by 8.1% and 14.8% year-on-year, respectively [1][3]. - The company is expected to continue its steady growth trajectory in the short term, supported by low inventory levels and proactive replenishment by distributors [1][4]. - The competitive landscape is intensifying, prompting the company to increase its marketing expenditures to maintain market share [3][4]. Revenue and Profitability - In Q1 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 83.2 billion RMB, with a gross margin of 40.0%, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 2.7 percentage points due to lower raw material costs [1][3]. - The net profit margin for Q1 2025 was 26.5%, up 1.5 percentage points year-on-year, indicating improved profitability despite rising sales expenses [3]. Product and Channel Performance - Revenue growth in Q1 was driven by downstream replenishment and the introduction of new products, with specific categories like soy sauce and oyster sauce showing strong performance [2]. - The company reported a 43.2% increase in online sales, while offline sales grew by 8.9%, highlighting the effectiveness of its channel strategies [2]. Market Position and Outlook - The company is expected to solidify its leading position in the market through ongoing channel reforms and product expansion strategies [4]. - Earnings per share (EPS) forecasts for 2025-2027 are projected at 1.28, 1.42, and 1.59 RMB, respectively, with a reference PE ratio of 40x for 2025 [4][6].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "BUY" rating for the company, indicating a positive outlook for potential price appreciation [5]. Core Insights - The company reported a net profit of 2.2 billion RMB for Q1 2025, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 14.8%, slightly exceeding expectations [6]. - Revenue for Q1 2025 reached 8.32 billion RMB, representing an 8.1% year-on-year growth [6]. - The company is expected to benefit from cost reductions and operational reforms, with projected net profits of 7.13 billion RMB, 7.88 billion RMB, and 8.59 billion RMB for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, showing year-on-year growth rates of 12.4%, 10.5%, and 9.1% [9]. Financial Performance Summary - For Q1 2025, the company achieved revenue of 8.32 billion RMB, with a net profit of 2.2 billion RMB, marking an increase of 14.8% year-on-year [6]. - The gross margin reached a recent high of 40%, up 2.7 percentage points year-on-year, attributed to lower raw material prices and improved operational efficiency [9]. - The company’s revenue breakdown shows soy sauce contributing 55.38%, oyster sauce 17.04%, and other sauces 11.44% to total revenue [2]. Future Projections - The company is projected to maintain a steady growth trajectory, with expected earnings per share (EPS) of 1.28 RMB, 1.42 RMB, and 1.53 RMB for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [9]. - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is expected to be 32x, 29x, and 27x for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [9]. - The company plans to continue developing new compound seasoning products while maintaining its competitive advantages in its three main product categories [9].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "BUY" rating for the company, indicating a positive outlook for investment opportunities [5]. Core Insights - The company has shown a strong performance in Q1 2025, with a net profit of RMB 2.2 billion, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 14.8%, slightly exceeding expectations [6]. - Revenue for Q1 2025 reached RMB 8.32 billion, representing an 8.1% year-on-year growth [6]. - The company is expected to benefit from cost reductions and operational reforms, maintaining its competitive advantage in three major product categories while developing new compound seasoning products [9]. Financial Performance Summary - For the fiscal year ending December 31, 2025, the company is projected to achieve a net profit of RMB 7.13 billion, a year-on-year increase of 12.4% [8]. - Earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 is estimated at RMB 1.28, with a corresponding price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 32 times [9]. - The company’s revenue is forecasted to grow from RMB 29.87 billion in 2025 to RMB 35.21 billion by 2027 [12]. Product Composition - The company's product mix includes soy sauce (55.38%), oyster sauce (17.04%), and other sauces (11.44%) [2]. Market Position - The company has a market capitalization of RMB 229.43 billion, with a current share price of RMB 41.26 [1]. - The stock has shown a 10.4% increase over the past year, with a 12-month high of RMB 52.99 and a low of RMB 33.08 [1].

证券代码：603696 证券简称：安记食品 公告编号：2025-23 安记食品股份有限公司 2025 年第一季度报告与行业相关的定期经营数据公告 本公司董事会及全体董事保证本公告内容不存在任何虚假记载、误导性陈述或者重大遗 漏，并对其内容的真实性、准确性和完整性承担个别及连带责任。 根据上海证券交易所《<上海证券交易所上市公司自律监管指引第 3 号——行业信息披 露>第十四号—食品制造》 的相关要求，安记食品股份有限公司（以下简称"公司"）现将 公司 2025 年第一季度报告与行业相关的定期经营数据披露如下： 一、报告期主营业务相关经营情况 1、 产品类别 | 产品分类 | 2025 年一季度 | 2024 年一季度 | 同比变动 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 复合调味粉 | 3,550.79 | 4,140.36 | -14.24 | | 香辛料 | 494.84 | 557.97 | -11.31 | | 风味清汤 | 20.57 | 40.68 | -49.43 | | 酱类调味品 | 389.39 | 458.75 | -15.12 | | 天然提取物调味料 | 123. ...

2024 年度与行业相关的定期经营数据公告 本公司董事会及全体董事保证本公告内容不存在任何虚假记载、误导性陈述或者重大遗 漏，并对其内容的真实性、准确性和完整性承担个别及连带责任。 证券代码：603696 证券简称：安记食品 公告编号：2025-014 安记食品股份有限公司 | 产品分类 | 2024 | 年度 | 2023 年度 | 同比变动 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 国内线下销售 | 18,132.46 | | 20,329.29 | -10.81 | | 国内线上销售 | 2,853.03 | | 3,068.07 | -7.01 | | 国外渠道 | 1,805.23 | | 2,024.49 | -10.83 | | 小计 | 22,790.72 | | 25,421.85 | -10.35 | 3、 地区分布 | 产品分类 | 2024 年度 | 2023 年度 | 同比变动 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 华东 | 10,678.45 | 11,126.78 | -4.03 | | 中南 | 9,597.07 | 10,9 ...