Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Views of the Report - The report analyzes various sectors including financial derivatives, commodities, and agricultural products. Geopolitical conflicts, especially the US - Iran conflict, have significant impacts on the markets, causing price fluctuations in energy, metals, and agricultural products. The supply - demand relationship, cost factors, and inventory levels also play crucial roles in determining the price trends of different commodities [2][3][4] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Daily Selections - **Nickel**: Macro changes and raw material contradictions support prices, but high inventory remains a constraint. The price is expected to oscillate strongly in the range of 136,000 - 145,000 [2][37] - **PX**: Short - term prices are dominated by oil prices with increased volatility. It is recommended to wait and see and go long at low prices after the market stabilizes [3][101] - **Silicon Iron**: The market sentiment is volatile, with both supply and demand increasing. The price may oscillate widely in the range of 5,700 - 6,200 [4][68] - **Soybean Meal**: The USDA March supply - demand report has limited impact. The market is expected to maintain a high - level oscillation with a strengthening basis [5][74] Macro - finance Stock Index Futures - The A - share market showed a mixed trend on Wednesday. The four major stock index futures contracts rose and fell differently. It is recommended to construct a bullish spread of far - month put options with a low position, with a neutral - oscillatory view [6][7][9] Precious Metals - Gold prices are expected to oscillate for a long time in the range of 5,000 - 5,250 dollars. Silver prices may still have downward pressure, and platinum and palladium prices have certain support [10][13][14] Non - ferrous Metals Copper - The spot copper supply is tight, and the spot premium is strengthening. In the short term, the price oscillates around 100,000 yuan/ton, and in the long term, the price center is expected to rise [15][18] Alumina - The inventory is slightly decreasing, and the spot price is rising. The price is expected to oscillate widely, and it is recommended to go short at high prices [19][20] Aluminum - Due to geopolitical conflicts, the price oscillates at a high level. In the short term, the main contract is expected to operate in the range of 24,000 - 26,000 yuan/ton [22][24] Aluminum Alloy - The social inventory and warehouse receipts are decreasing. The price oscillates strongly in the range of 23,000 - 24,500 yuan/ton [24][26] Zinc - The price oscillates narrowly. The supply and demand are relatively stable, and it is recommended to go long at low prices in the long term [27][30] Tin - The price is greatly affected by short - term market sentiment. In the long term, it is still optimistic, and it is recommended to wait and see in the short term [31][35] Nickel - The situation is similar to that in the daily selection, with high inventory constraining the upward movement, and the price is expected to oscillate strongly [36][38] Stainless Steel - The price oscillates due to geopolitical disturbances. The cost provides support, and the price is expected to oscillate and adjust in the range of 14,000 - 14,500 [38][40] Lithium Carbonate - The futures price falls. The fundamentals are resilient but lack strong driving forces. The price is expected to oscillate widely in the range of 150,000 - 165,000 [41][44] Polysilicon - The spot market is weak, and the futures price oscillates weakly. The long - term photovoltaic demand may be favorable, and it is recommended to wait and see [45][47] Industrial Silicon - The spot price stabilizes, and the futures price oscillates. The supply and demand are expected to be strong in March, and it is necessary to pay attention to the cost and market situation [48][50] Ferrous Metals Steel - The steel price center rises, and it is expected to oscillate in a range. It is necessary to pay attention to the marginal changes in steel exports and the price pressure levels [50][53] Iron Ore - The price may oscillate strongly in the range of 750 - 820 due to geopolitical impacts and supply - demand changes [55][56] Coking Coal - The spot price stabilizes, and the futures price rebounds. It is recommended to go long at low prices for the 2605 contract and conduct arbitrage by going long on coking coal and short on coke [57][61] Coke - The futures price rebounds. The supply and demand are basically balanced in the short term. It is recommended to go long at low prices for the 2605 contract and conduct arbitrage by going long on coking coal and short on coke [62][66] Silicon Iron - Similar to the daily selection, the price may oscillate widely in the range of 5,700 - 6,200 [67][68] Manganese Silicon - The price may oscillate widely in the range of 5,800 - 6,400 due to cost - pushing and supply - demand changes [69][71] Agricultural Products Meal - The USDA March report has limited impact, and the market is expected to maintain a high - level oscillation with a strengthening basis [72][74] Live Pigs - The slaughter pressure is high, and the price is expected to continue to bottom out, with the possibility of further decline in the near - month [75][76] Corn - The price oscillates at a high level, with support and pressure coexisting. It is necessary to pay attention to the specific supply and policy release [77][79] Sugar - The international and domestic sugar markets have different trends. The domestic market is expected to oscillate at a high level, and it is recommended to wait and see [80] Cotton - The cotton price shows a strong trend. The domestic and international markets have different situations, and it is necessary to pay attention to downstream demand and planting policies [82] Eggs - The supply is sufficient, and the demand is moderate. The price is expected to oscillate at a low level [86][87] Oils and Fats - Palm oil is expected to oscillate strongly in the short term, soybean oil is affected by the Middle East situation and supply rumors, and rapeseed oil oscillates in a range [88][91] Red Dates - The spot market improves, and the futures price oscillates strongly. It is recommended to operate in a short - term band with strict risk control [92][93] Apples - The spot trading is weak, and the futures price oscillates and falls. It is necessary to pay attention to the Tomb - Sweeping Festival replenishment, ordinary fruit de - stocking, and weather changes [94][96] Energy and Chemicals Crude Oil - The short - term price decline space is limited. It is necessary to pay attention to the progress of the US - Iran conflict and the passage of the Strait of Hormuz [97][98] PX - Short - term prices are dominated by oil prices with increased volatility. It is recommended to wait and see and go long at low prices after the market stabilizes [100][101] PTA - The supply - demand drive is limited, and the price follows the raw materials. It is recommended to wait and see and pay attention to oil prices [102][103] Short - fiber - The supply - demand pattern is weak, and the price follows the raw materials. It is necessary to pay attention to the downstream cost transmission [104][105] Bottle Chips - The supply - demand is expected to be tight. It is recommended to operate similarly to PTA and pay attention to the processing fee pressure [106][107] Ethylene Glycol - The supply - demand is expected to improve in March, and the price may oscillate at a high level. It is recommended to wait and see [108][109] Pure Benzene - The short - term price follows the oil price. It is recommended to wait and see and shrink the spread between pure benzene and styrene at high prices [110] Styrene - The short - term price follows the oil price. It is recommended to operate similarly to pure benzene and pay attention to the downstream recovery and the Strait of Hormuz passage [111][112] LLDPE - The price is expected to be strong in the short term due to supply contraction and demand recovery expectations. It is necessary to track the cost and demand [114] PP - The supply - demand balance improves, and the price is strong. It is recommended to gradually stop profiting from the 5 - 9 positive spread [115] Methanol - The price oscillates widely due to geopolitical conflicts. It is recommended to gradually stop profiting from long positions [115] Caustic Soda - The price rises due to geopolitical disturbances. The supply - demand is weak, and it is necessary to be vigilant against price drops after the situation eases [116][117] PVC - The price fluctuates emotionally due to cost concerns. It may be passively pushed up in the short term [118][119] Urea - The cost drives the price, and the fundamentals change little. The price is strong in the short term but may decline later. It is recommended to follow the crude oil series with a long - at - low strategy [120][121] Soda Ash - The supply and inventory are high, and the demand is average. The price is expected to oscillate, and it is recommended to wait and see [122][125] Glass - The cost provides support, and the demand improves. It is necessary to pay attention to de - stocking. The price is expected to oscillate, and it is recommended to wait and see [122][126] Natural Rubber - The price oscillates widely due to the impact of oil prices. It is expected to oscillate in the range of 16,500 - 17,500, and it is recommended to wait and see [126][129] Synthetic Rubber - The price of BR rebounds due to expected raw material shortages. It is recommended to lightly go long on the spread between RU2605 and BR2605 at low prices [129][132] Container Shipping to Europe - The price is pushed up by the fuel surcharge. It is expected to oscillate widely in the range of 1,700 - 2,100. It is recommended to pay attention to the 6 - 10 positive spread entry opportunity [133][134]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for precious metals is three red stars, indicating a more distinct upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently [1][5] Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - During the Spring Festival, precious metals showed strong performance. The U.S. Supreme Court ruled the government's large - scale tariff policy illegal, but Trump will maintain trade pressure in other ways. The U.S. - Iran negotiation has no substantial progress, and Trump said the time window for reaching an agreement is at most 10 - 15 days. There are reports that the U.S. may launch a preliminary strike against Iran in the next few days. In the short - term risk event's critical node, the strength of precious metals may continue waiting for the further development of the situation [2] - The continuous rebound of the U.S. dollar may curb the rebound space of precious metals. The large fluctuations of silver mainly reflect the two - way swing of volatility without a clear and strong logical drive. It is expected to be in a strong - side shock before the Iran issue is settled and a weak - side shock after that. The Fed will continue to observe U.S. economic data, especially non - farm and inflation data and relevant Fed officials' comments [2] Group 3: Summary According to Related Contents Macroeconomic and Market Conditions - The macro - situation during the festival drove up gold and silver prices, and the investment premium space for platinum and palladium reopened. The expected output of Norilsk, the world's major palladium supplier, in 2026 is down 11% year - on - year, and the palladium fundamentals are improving. After the festival, platinum and palladium on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange opened higher and fluctuated, but the market is waiting for non - farm data to judge the Fed's interest - rate cut trend, with cautious capital entry and limited position increase on the market [3] Geopolitical Situation - The risk of military conflict between the U.S. and Iran is rising at an unprecedented speed. The Pentagon warned Trump that a long - term military action against Iran would bring inestimable risks. The U.S. State Department ordered the evacuation of non - essential personnel and their families from the U.S. embassy in Beirut. Iran's Supreme Leader Khamenei said its forces could sink U.S. warships, making the war cloud over the Persian Gulf thicker [3] Technical Analysis - From a technical perspective, the medium - term upward trend of platinum and palladium in the outer market has not been falsified, but the rebound is temporarily under pressure at the 20 - day moving average. The short - term direction is not clear, and it is advisable to wait and see for a clearer situation [3]

Group 1: Stock Market - Geopolitical risks, particularly the US-Iran situation and Japan's election outcomes, are significant factors affecting the A-share market during the Spring Festival [1] - The correlation between A-share technology stocks and US markets has increased since November, indicating a global linkage rather than isolated market sentiment [1] - The volatility of stock indices is expected to rise if geopolitical conflicts occur during the holiday period, despite current volatility gradually decreasing [1] Group 2: Government Bonds - The 30-year, 10-year, and 5-year government bond futures saw slight increases, while the 2-year bond remained stable [2] - The People's Bank of China conducted a net injection of 403.5 billion yuan into the market through reverse repos, indicating ongoing liquidity support [2] - The bond market's strength may be limited due to the lack of strong driving forces following structural interest rate cuts and ongoing fiscal policies aimed at stabilizing growth [2] Group 3: Precious Metals - Gold and silver prices showed a strong upward trend, while platinum and palladium experienced weaker fluctuations [3] - The US non-farm payrolls data for January significantly exceeded expectations, reducing the urgency for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates [3] - Geopolitical tensions, particularly related to US-Iran negotiations, are currently supporting gold prices, although the unpredictability of these tensions may complicate market forecasts [3]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the strong performance of precious metals futures, with platinum and palladium rising over 5% and silver increasing over 4% [1] - Despite market skepticism regarding the Federal Reserve's future interest rate cuts, discussions around the potential candidates for the Fed chair and the number of rate cuts in 2016 are influencing market sentiment [1] - The current gold price is close to its historical high, with attention on whether it can effectively break through this level to open up upward potential for 2026 [1] Group 2 - Silver, platinum, and palladium continue to follow gold's trend, with stronger performance observed in these metals [1] - The sustained strength in gold prices provides market confidence for bullish positions in silver, platinum, and palladium, leading to a rapid return of the gold-silver ratio, which extends to the gold-platinum and gold-palladium ratios [1] - While prices are rising quickly, caution is advised to prevent overheating in the market, suggesting that chasing high prices should be approached with care [1]