1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Gold: ★★★, indicating a clearer long - trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently [1] - Silver: ★★★, indicating a clearer long - trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently [1] 2. Core View of the Report - Today, precious metals continued to adjust. The delayed - released September non - farm payrolls in the US increased by 119,000, exceeding expectations and the previous value, but the unemployment rate rose slightly by 0.1 percentage points to 4.4%. The weekly initial jobless claims were 223,000, lower than expected and remaining at a low level, showing employment resilience. However, the October non - farm and OPI data won't be released, and the November data will be postponed to mid - November, meaning there will be a lack of key data reference before the next Fed meeting. Fed officials' recent statements have significant differences, and the market's bets on a December rate cut have been fluctuating. On Friday, the New York Fed President's statement that there is still room for interest rate adjustment increased the implied probability of a rate cut in the interest rate market to around 70%. Geopolitically, the US proposed a 28 - point Ukraine peace plan, which was opposed by some European allies, and multi - party games will continue. The strong Nvidia earnings last week supported the US stocks, but then the US stocks sharply corrected, and there are still concerns about the bubble. Short - term market news is complex, and precious metals are in high - level oscillations. Attention should be paid to the directional breakthrough in the technical aspect [1] 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs 3.1 Russia - Ukraine Conflict - US and Ukrainian representatives said the Geneva talks "made progress", and Rubio said Trump was satisfied with the talks report. Zelensky stated that the US peace plan is expected to incorporate Ukraine's core interests. Europe put forward a counter - proposal to the 28 - point plan, including the US providing NATO Article 5 - style protection, Ukraine not using military means to recover occupied territories, territorial negotiations based on the current military contact line, and allowing Ukraine to join NATO with NATO's consensus. US and Ukrainian officials are discussing Zelensky's visit to the US this week. US Treasury Secretary Bessent said Trump is pressuring Russia to end the conflict and is confident that the Russia - Ukraine peace process is advancing. Trump thinks November 27 is a suitable deadline for Ukraine to accept the peace agreement terms [2] 3.2 Fed - Williams believes there is still room for a rate cut in the near term. Collins thinks there is a reason to be cautious about a December rate cut and expects further rate cuts in the future. Milan will support a 25 - basis - point rate cut if his vote is decisive. Logan believes the Fed needs to "temporarily keep interest rates unchanged" when inflation is still high and the labor market is generally balanced [2]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - Gold and silver are rated ★★★, indicating a clearer long/short trend and a relatively appropriate current investment opportunity [1]. 2) Core View of the Report - Overnight, precious metals fluctuated with sharp intraday movements. The Fed's October meeting minutes showed significant differences among officials, and the market's expectation of a December interest rate cut dropped below 40%. The market is waiting for the belatedly released September non - farm payroll data to weigh the economic and monetary policy outlook. However, the October data will not be released, the November data is postponed, and the Fed's December meeting resolution still faces a dilemma of lacking data support. Precious metals are oscillating at high levels, waiting for new drivers and technical directional guidance [1]. 3) Other Key Information - It is reported that the US and Russia secretly drafted a 28 - point peace negotiation framework, which requires Ukraine to cede territory, disarm, and restrict weapons. The discussion of this framework hardly consulted Ukraine or Europe. White House officials expect Russia and Ukraine to reach a framework agreement before the end of November, but Ukraine opposes the agreement [2]. - The US authorities canceled the October non - farm payroll report, and the November report is rescheduled to be released on December 16th. That is, the Fed will lack the latest non - farm data reference during its December interest rate meeting. Milan said there is a "possibility" of further reducing its balance sheet in the future. Trump's joke about the Treasury Secretary insinuated Powell. The Fed's October meeting minutes showed that officials had significant differences: during the October interest rate cut, several people opposed the cut, and some others were in favor of a cut but also accepted keeping the interest rate unchanged. Several people thought that the interest rate should be cut again in December, and many people thought it should remain unchanged [2].

Group 1 - Domestic commodities mostly declined on October 31, with lithium carbonate dropping over 3%, and other commodities like 20 rubber, methanol, and silicon iron falling over 2% [1][5] - The China Securities Commodity Futures Price Index closed at 1474.01 points, down 3.29 points or 0.22% from the previous trading day [1] - The main contract for polysilicon rose by 2.73%, driven by positive rumors regarding "storage" initiatives, reaching a two-month high [2] Group 2 - Precious metals, including gold and silver, recorded gains of over 1%, influenced by overseas market conditions and ongoing uncertainties in the U.S. economy [3] - The market for polysilicon is expected to see a supply contraction in November, further supporting price increases despite weak demand [2] - Other commodities like soybean meal, No. 2 yellow soybeans, and corn showed slight increases, contrasting with the overall market trend [4]

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The stock index futures market was boosted by brokerage stocks, with the index fluctuating upwards. The bond market was cautious due to the strong stock market and concerns about the new regulations on fund sales fees. The precious metals market continued to rise strongly due to the ongoing fermentation of the US government shutdown crisis. The shipping index (European line) showed a weak and volatile trend, and it was recommended to go long on the 12 and 02 contracts. The copper price remained high due to supply concerns. The alumina market was in a pattern of high supply, high inventory, and weak demand, with a downward - pressured price. The aluminum market was supported by the peak - season effect and inventory inflection point, with the price expected to fluctuate within a certain range. The zinc market was expected to remain volatile under the background of supply and demand. The tin price rose significantly at night due to Indonesia's crackdown on illegal tin mines. The nickel market was expected to maintain an interval shock. The stainless steel market was mainly in a short - term shock adjustment, and the lithium carbonate market was expected to fluctuate and sort out. The steel market's inventory pressure was not large, and the iron ore market was in a balanced and tight pattern but was dragged down by the weak finished products. The coking coal and coke markets were expected to fall after the peak due to the end of pre - holiday replenishment. The粕 market had supply pressure in the near - term, and the pig market was in a situation of loose supply and demand with a weak adjustment of the spot price before the National Day [2][5][8][12][13][19][22][25][32][36][39][42][46][49][51][56][63][64][67] Summary by Directory Financial Futures Stock Index Futures - **Market Situation**: On Monday, A - share major indexes fluctuated upwards and closed higher. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.90%, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 2.05%, and the ChiNext Index rose 2.74%. The four major stock index futures contracts also rose, and the basis spread of the main contracts was repaired to some extent [2][3] - **News**: Domestically, the Politburo meeting studied the 15th Five - Year Plan, and the National Development and Reform Commission supported enterprises to participate in the "Artificial Intelligence +" action. Overseas, South Korea and the US reached an agreement on exchange - rate issues [3][4] - **Funding**: On September 29, the trading volume of the A - share market increased slightly, with a total turnover of 2.16 trillion yuan. The central bank conducted a net investment of 481 billion yuan through reverse repurchase operations [4] - **Operation Suggestion**: After the Fed cut interest rates as expected, the market digested the expectation and turned to shock. It was recommended to lightly short the put option of MO2511 with an exercise price near 6800 to collect the premium [4] Treasury Futures - **Market Performance**: Treasury futures closed lower across the board. The 30 - year main contract fell 0.47%, the 10 - year main contract fell 0.01%, the 5 - year main contract fell 0.04%, and the 2 - year main contract fell 0.02% [5] - **Funding**: The inter - bank market's capital was generally stable on Monday, but there were structural contradictions at the end of the quarter. The central bank's continuous net investment of reverse repurchase made the cross - quarter funds generally stable [7] - **Operation Suggestion**: Due to the strong stock market and concerns about the new regulations on fund sales fees, the bond market sentiment was cautious. It was recommended to wait and see in the short - term and pay attention to economic data [7] Precious Metals - **Market Review**: The US government shutdown crisis continued to ferment, and the US and the Democratic Party had differences on the temporary spending bill. The US Bureau of Labor Statistics announced an emergency plan in case of a government shutdown [8] - **Market Performance**: Overnight, precious metals continued to rise strongly. The international gold price broke through the $3800 mark, and the international silver price also rose [10] - **Outlook**: In the fourth quarter, the Fed's policy and political situation in Europe and the US would drive the price of precious metals to new highs. It was recommended to buy wide - straddle options before the National Day and buy out - of - the - money call options later. For silver, it was recommended to buy on dips [11] Shipping Index (European Line) - **Spot Quotation**: As of September 30, the freight quotes for Shanghai - European basic ports of different shipping companies were provided. As of September 29, the SCFIS European line index and the SCFI composite index both declined [12] - **Logic**: The futures market was weakly volatile. Only CMA announced the price for November, and it was recommended to go long on the 12 and 02 contracts [13] Non - ferrous Metals Copper - **Spot**: As of September 29, the average price of SMM electrolytic copper and SMM Guangdong electrolytic copper decreased. The trading was quiet [13] - **Macro**: The Fed cut interest rates by 25BP in September, and the "dot plot" predicted two more interest rate cuts within the year [14] - **Supply**: The Grasberg mine accident increased supply concerns. The spot TC of copper concentrate was at a low level, and the domestic electrolytic copper production was expected to decline in September [16] - **Demand**: The operating rate of copper rod production increased. The demand in the fourth quarter might weaken marginally, but the overall demand was resilient [17] - **Inventory**: LME copper inventory decreased, while COMEX copper and domestic social inventory increased [18] - **Logic**: The copper price was expected to benefit from potential interest rate cuts. The supply was expected to tighten in the fourth quarter, and the demand was resilient. It was recommended to hold long positions [19] Alumina - **Spot**: On September 29, the spot prices of alumina in various regions decreased. The supply pattern was gradually loosening, and the inventory continued to accumulate [19] - **Supply**: In August, the production of metallurgical - grade alumina in China increased. The operating capacity was expected to continue to increase slightly in September [20][21] - **Inventory**: As of September 25, the port inventory decreased, the factory inventory of electrolytic aluminum increased, and the total registered quantity of alumina warehouse receipts increased [21] - **Logic**: The alumina market was in a pattern of high supply, high inventory, and weak demand. The price was expected to be under pressure, and the main contract was expected to fluctuate between 2850 - 3150 yuan/ton [22] Aluminum - **Spot**: On September 26, the average price of SMM A00 aluminum decreased, and the premium also decreased [23] - **Supply**: In August, the domestic electrolytic aluminum production increased, and the proportion of molten aluminum increased [23] - **Demand**: The downstream industries were in the transition from the off - season to the peak season, and the operating rate generally increased [23] - **Inventory**: As of September 25, the domestic mainstream consumption area's electrolytic aluminum ingot inventory decreased, and the LME aluminum inventory remained unchanged on September 29 [24] - **Logic**: The Fed's interest rate cut brought uncertainty, but the domestic macro - environment was warm. The supply was high, the cost support was weakened, and the demand was in the peak season. The inventory inflection point appeared, and the price was expected to fluctuate between 20,600 - 21,000 yuan/ton [25] Aluminum Alloy - **Spot**: On September 29, the average price of SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 remained unchanged [27] - **Supply**: In August, the production of recycled aluminum alloy ingots decreased, and the operating rate decreased. It was expected to increase slightly in September [27] - **Demand**: In August, the terminal demand for cast aluminum alloy was weak, but it showed a marginal improvement in the transition period. It was expected to recover moderately in September [27] - **Inventory**: As of September 25, the social inventory of aluminum alloy increased slightly [28] - **Logic**: The price of cast aluminum alloy futures fluctuated with the aluminum price. The supply was still tight, the cost support was significant, and the demand recovered moderately. The price was expected to remain high and volatile, and the main contract was expected to operate between 20200 - 20600 yuan/ton [29] Zinc - **Spot**: On September 29, the average price of SMM 0 zinc ingot decreased, and some downstream enterprises replenished inventory at low prices [30] - **Supply**: The supply of zinc ore was loose, and the domestic zinc ingot production increased significantly since June. It was expected that the cumulative production from January to September would increase by more than 9% year - on - year [31] - **Demand**: The operating rate of primary processing industries was in line with the peak - season performance, but the overall demand was still weak [32] - **Inventory**: Both domestic social inventory and LME inventory decreased [32] - **Logic**: The supply was loose, and the demand was not outstanding. The zinc price was expected to remain volatile, and the main contract was expected to operate between 21500 - 22500 yuan/ton [33] Tin - **Spot**: On September 29, the price of SMM 1 tin decreased, and the trading was light [33] - **Supply**: In August, the domestic tin ore import volume decreased slightly, and the import volume from Myanmar increased. The tin ingot import volume decreased [34] - **Demand and Inventory**: In August, the operating rate of the solder industry increased, but the overall demand was still weak. The inventory decreased [35] - **Logic**: The supply of tin ore was tight, and the demand was weak. After Indonesia's crackdown on illegal tin mines, the tin price rose at night. The price was expected to operate between 265000 - 285000 yuan/ton [36] Nickel - **Spot**: As of September 29, the average price of SMM1 electrolytic nickel and imported nickel decreased [36] - **Supply**: In August, the domestic refined nickel production increased, and the monthly production was expected to increase slightly [37] - **Demand**: The demand for electroplating and alloy was stable, the demand for stainless steel was general, and the demand for nickel sulfate was supported in the peak season but had limited sustainability [38] - **Inventory**: Overseas inventory remained high, domestic social inventory was stable, and bonded area inventory decreased [38] - **Logic**: The nickel market was in an interval shock. The Fed's interest rate cut and Indonesian mining policies were factors to be concerned about. The price was expected to operate between 120000 - 125000 yuan/ton [39] Stainless Steel - **Spot**: As of September 29, the price of Wuxi Hongwang 304 cold - rolled stainless steel decreased, and the basis decreased [40] - **Raw Materials**: The price of nickel ore was firm, the price of nickel iron was stable, and the price of ferrochrome increased [40][42] - **Supply**: In August, the domestic stainless steel production increased, and the production in September was expected to continue to increase, mainly in the 300 - series [41] - **Inventory**: The social inventory decreased slowly, and the warehouse receipt quantity decreased [41] - **Logic**: The stainless steel market was in a short - term shock adjustment. The raw material price was firm, but the peak - season demand was not obvious. The main contract was expected to operate between 12600 - 13200 yuan/ton [42] Lithium Carbonate - **Spot**: As of September 29, the average price of battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate and lithium hydroxide decreased. The trading was light before the holiday [44] - **Supply**: In August, the production of lithium carbonate increased, and the weekly production continued to increase slightly in the recent period, mainly from new projects and lithium spodumene processing [44] - **Demand**: The demand was robust and optimistic, and the orders in September and October were expected to increase [45] - **Inventory**: The whole - link inventory continued to decrease, with the upstream smelter reducing inventory and the downstream replenishing inventory [45] - **Logic**: The supply path was clear, and the demand in the peak season provided support. The price was expected to fluctuate and sort out, and the main contract price was expected to be in the range of 70,000 - 75,000 yuan [46] Black Metals Steel - **Spot**: The spot price of steel decreased. The basis of rebar was 234 yuan, and the basis of hot - rolled coil was - 42 yuan [46] - **Cost and Profit**: The cost of steel had support, and the profit decreased significantly from the high level. The profit order was billet > hot - rolled coil > rebar > cold - rolled coil [47] - **Supply**: From January to August, the iron element production increased by 2800 tons year - on - year, and it was expected to increase by 3700 tons in the first nine months. The rebar production decreased, and the hot - rolled coil production remained high [47][48] - **Demand**: From January to August, the apparent demand for five major steel products was basically flat year - on - year. The export increment was not expected to be large. The apparent demand in August - September decreased, and the inventory of rebar decreased while that of hot - rolled coil increased [48] - **Inventory**: Since August, the inventory has increased significantly. It was expected that the inventory center would continue to rise [48] - **View**: The steel price was expected to fluctuate within a range, with the rebar fluctuating between 3100 - 3350 yuan and the hot - rolled coil between 3300 - 3500 yuan [49] Iron Ore - **Spot**: As of September 29, the price of mainstream iron ore powder decreased [49] - **Futures**: The iron ore 2601 contract closed lower, and the 1 - 5 spread weakened [49] - **Basis**: The basis of different iron ore varieties was provided [49] - **Demand**: As of September 25, the daily average pig iron output, blast furnace operating rate, and iron - making capacity utilization rate increased, and the daily consumption of imported ore also increased [49] - **Supply**: Last week, the global iron ore shipment decreased, and the arrival volume at 45 ports increased [50] - **Inventory**: The port inventory increased, the daily average port clearance volume decreased, and the steel mill's imported ore inventory increased [50] - **View**: The iron ore market was in a balanced and tight pattern but was dragged down by the weak finished products. It was recommended to short the iron ore 2601 contract on rallies, with the range of 750 - 830 yuan [51] Coking Coal - **Futures and Spot**: The coking coal 2601 contract closed lower, and the 1 - 5 spread weakened. The spot price of coking coal was strong, and the Mongolian coal price followed the futures to rise and then fall [52] - **Supply**: This week, the main - producing area coal mines continued to resume production, and the Mongolian coal price increased. The port was closed for 7 days during the National Day holiday [56] - **Demand**: The pig iron output continued to rise, and the coking plant's operation was stable, with the downstream replenishment demand increasing [56] - **Inventory**: The coal mine and port inventory decreased, while the port, coal - washing plant, coking plant, and steel mill inventory increased [55] - **View**: It was recommended to short the coking coal 2601 contract on rallies, with the range of 1150 - 1300 yuan [56] Coke - **Futures and Spot**: The coke 2601 contract closed lower, and the 1 - 5 spread remained unchanged. The mainstream coking enterprises proposed a price increase, which was accepted by some steel mills and would be implemented on October 1 [58] - **Profit**: The average national profit per ton of coke was - 34 yuan/ton [59] - **Supply**: Due to the rise in coking coal prices, some coking enterprises suffered losses, and the operation rate decreased [63] - **Demand**: The steel mill continued to resume production, and the pig iron output continued to rise slightly [61] - **Inventory**: The coking plant and port inventory decreased, while the steel mill inventory increased [62] - **View**: It was recommended to short the coke 2601 contract on rallies, with the range of 1550 - 1750 yuan [63] Agricultural Products Meal - **Spot Market**: On September 29, the domestic soybean meal spot price was stable, and the vegetable meal price increased by 0 - 10 yuan/ton. The transaction volume of soybean meal increased, and the opening rate of oil mills decreased [64] - **Fundamentals**: The US soybean export sales and drought situation, Argentina's export tax policy, China's purchase of Argentine soybeans, and the EU's oilseed import situation were reported [64][65] - **Outlook**: The domestic soybean meal supply was abundant, and the near - term price was under

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided regarding the industry investment rating in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The market's expectation of multiple interest rate cuts by the Fed within this year has been further consolidated due to the mild rebound of the US CPI in August, the disappointing non - farm payroll data in August, and the significant annual downward revision of previous data, which highlights the fragility of the US labor market. In the short term, the expectation of the exhaustion of positive factors and the continuous concern about the medium - term "stagflation - like" risk may intensify the long - short game of precious metals near historical highs and amplify their volatility [8][10] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Review - In the precious metals market, during the day, the outer - market precious metals fluctuated narrowly near historical highs, with London gold trading around $3641 and London silver around $42.2. Driven by the outer - market, Shanghai gold closed up 0.1% at 831.6 yuan/gram, and the main Shanghai silver contract closed up 0.88% at 10,017 yuan/kilogram [3] - The US dollar index was consolidating at a low level, trading around 97.56 [4] - The 10 - year US Treasury yield rebounded slightly, trading around 4.07% [5] - The RMB exchange rate against the US dollar was consolidating at a high level, trading around 7.123 [6] Important Information - US macro: The preliminary value of the one - year inflation rate expectation in September in the US was 4.8% (expected 4.7%, previous value 4.80%), and the preliminary value of the University of Michigan consumer confidence index in September was 55.4 (expected 58, previous value 58.2) [7] - Trump administration dynamics: On the 12th, Trump urged the US Court of Appeals to approve the dismissal of Fed Governor Cook again. Trump also said that his patience with Russian President Putin was "rapidly running out" and threatened to impose new economic sanctions on Moscow because the efforts to mediate the Russia - Ukraine cease - fire negotiations had been blocked [7] - Fed observation: The probability of the Fed cutting interest rates by 25 basis points this week is 96.4%, and the probability of a 50 - basis - point cut is 3.6%. The probability of a cumulative 25 - basis - point cut in October is 16.0%, a cumulative 50 - basis - point cut is 81.0%, and a cumulative 75 - basis - point cut is 3.0%. The market is betting on interest rate cuts in September, October, and December this year [7] Logical Analysis - The mild rebound of the US CPI in August, combined with the disappointing non - farm payroll data and the significant downward revision of previous data, highlights the fragility of the US labor market, further consolidating the market's expectation of multiple interest rate cuts by the Fed within this year. In the short term, the expectation of the exhaustion of positive factors and the concern about the medium - term "stagflation - like" risk may intensify the long - short game of precious metals near historical highs and amplify their volatility [8][10] Trading Strategies - Unilateral: Conservative investors can consider waiting and seeing for the time being; aggressive investors can consider going long on dips against the 5 - day moving average, paying attention to setting exit points and position management [11] - Arbitrage: Wait and see [12] - Options: Wait and see for the time being [13] Data Reference - The report provides multiple sets of data charts, including the relationship between the US dollar index and precious metals, the relationship between real yields and precious metals, the relationship between domestic and foreign futures prices, the relationship between futures and spot prices, the domestic - foreign price difference, the gold - silver ratio, ETF holdings, futures trading volume, futures inventory, TD data, and the relationship between Treasury yields and the break - even inflation rate [15][17][21]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The report provides a comprehensive analysis of various financial derivatives and commodity futures, including market conditions, news, and operation suggestions for each category [1]. - Different sectors show diverse trends. For example, in the stock index futures market, major indices declined, while in the precious metals market, prices continued to rise due to weak US employment data and increased expectations of interest rate cuts [2][7]. Summary by Directory Financial Derivatives Financial Futures - **Stock Index Futures**: Major indices opened higher and then declined. The Shanghai Composite Index fell 1.16%, and most sectors adjusted. The four major stock index futures contracts also declined, and the basis of the main contracts decreased. It is recommended to wait and see [2][3][4]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The bond market sentiment improved as the stock market fell. Treasury bond futures rose across the board, and the yields of major interest - rate bonds generally declined. It is recommended to use interval operations and pay attention to the basis convergence strategy of the TL contract [5][6]. Precious Metals - Gold and silver prices continued to rise. Weak US employment data strengthened the expectation of interest rate cuts, and the decline in US Treasury yields increased the demand for precious metals. Gold reached a record high of $3559.02 per ounce, and silver closed at $41.19 per ounce. It is expected that gold may rise above $3600, and silver may quickly rise above $42, but caution is needed [7][8][9]. Container Shipping on European Routes - The spot price of container shipping continued to decline, and the futures market was expected to fluctuate. The 12 - 10 month - spread arbitrage strategy can be considered [10][11]. Commodity Futures Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: The center of copper price has risen due to the improvement of interest rate cut expectations. However, the upside space is limited, and it is expected to fluctuate. The main contract is recommended to operate in the range of 79000 - 81000 yuan/ton [12][13][16]. - **Alumina**: The market presents a pattern of "high supply, high inventory, and weak demand". The price is expected to fluctuate weakly, and it is recommended to consider short - selling at high prices in the medium term. The main contract is expected to operate in the range of 2900 - 3200 yuan/ton [17][18]. - **Aluminum**: The price is expected to fluctuate widely in the range of 20400 - 21000 yuan/ton. It is necessary to pay attention to the pressure level of 21000 yuan/ton and the actual start of peak - season demand [19][20][21]. - **Zinc**: The refined zinc output is higher than expected, and the domestic inventory continues to accumulate. The price is expected to fluctuate in the range of 21500 - 23000 yuan/ton [23][24][26]. - **Tin**: The supply remains tight, and the price fluctuates at a high level. It is recommended to wait and see, and the price is expected to fluctuate in the range of 265000 - 285000 yuan/ton [26][27][29]. - **Nickel**: The price is expected to adjust in the range of 118000 - 126000 yuan/ton. It is necessary to pay attention to macro - expectations and import/export conditions [29][30][31]. - **Stainless Steel**: The price is expected to fluctuate in the range of 12600 - 13400 yuan/ton. It is necessary to pay attention to raw material dynamics and the realization of peak - season demand [32][33][35]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The market is in a tight - balance state. The price is expected to fluctuate widely after the price center moves down, and it is recommended to wait and see. The main contract is expected to operate in the range of 70000 - 75000 yuan/ton [36][37][38]. Ferrous Metals - **Steel**: The apparent demand for rebar declined, and the steel price maintained a weak downward trend. It is recommended to sell out - of - the - money put options and consider going long on the ratio of steel to iron ore [39][40]. - **Iron Ore**: The global shipment volume increased, and the 45 - port arrival volume rose. The price is expected to fluctuate in the range of 750 - 810 yuan/ton, and it is recommended to go long on iron ore and short on coking coal [41][42][43]. - **Coking Coal**: The price fluctuated weakly. It is recommended to hold short positions and go long on iron ore and short on coking coal [44][46]. - **Coke**: The seventh round of price increase by mainstream coking plants was implemented, but the eighth round was blocked. It is recommended to hold short positions and go long on iron ore and short on coke [47][48][49]. Agricultural Products - **Meal Products**: Sino - US trade has not made substantial progress, and the domestic bullish expectation remains unchanged. It is recommended to wait for the market to stabilize and then go long on the dips [50][52]. - **Hogs**: The supply - demand contradiction in the market is limited. It is recommended to operate cautiously and pay attention to the support levels of 13500 for the 11 - contract and 13800 for the 01 - contract [53][54]. - **Corn**: The short - term market will fluctuate and adjust, and the medium - term trend is weak. It is recommended to go short on the rallies [55][56].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that various factors are intertwining, leading to fluctuations in precious metals, with a focus on gold and silver prices [1][2] - The U.S. CPI data shows a moderate inflation rate, with a 0.3% month-on-month increase and a 2.7% year-on-year rise, aligning with market expectations [2] - BCA Research suggests that the main factors driving gold prices up over the past three years are still in play, with expectations for gold to test historical highs again [3] Group 2 - Citigroup forecasts that silver prices will rise above $40 per ounce in the coming months, driven by tightening physical supply and increasing investment demand [3] - The market is currently sensitive to event-driven factors, particularly U.S. trade policies and geopolitical uncertainties, which may lead to repeated fluctuations in risk sentiment [2] - The overall long-term support logic for precious metals remains intact, despite short-term volatility, due to factors like fiscal deficits and economic slowdown expectations [2][3]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - Gold: ★★★, indicating a clearer long - term trend and relatively appropriate investment opportunities currently [1] - Silver: ★★★, indicating a clearer long - term trend and relatively appropriate investment opportunities currently [1] 2) Core View of the Report - Today, precious metals declined. The better - than - expected US non - farm payrolls in June and the decrease in the unemployment rate led the market to abandon bets on a July interest rate cut. Economic data shows that the economy is not significantly weakening, and the Fed will base its next move on data performance. After the geopolitical risks cooled down and economic data suppressed the interest rate cut expectations, the market's focus this week is on the change of the US reciprocal tariff policy expiring on July 9. Trump said new tariffs would take effect on August 1, with rates ranging from 10 - 70%. The short - term direction of precious metals is unclear, and they will continue to fluctuate waiting for the impact of the final policy on market risk sentiment [1] 3) Other Key Points - On July 4, Trump signed a nearly 900 - page "big and beautiful" tax and spending bill, which includes many of his 2024 campaign promises. The bill will increase the federal fiscal deficit by about $3.3 trillion in the next decade [2] - US Treasury Secretary Besent said that several major agreements are close to being reached. If countries receiving tariff letters fail to reach an agreement, the tax rate will return to the April level on August 1. US Commerce Secretary Lutnick said tariffs will take effect on August 1, and Trump is "now formulating tax rates and agreements". White House economic adviser Hassett said some trade negotiations may exceed the deadline [2] - Israel and Hamas' first - round indirect cease - fire negotiations in Qatar ended without results, with Israel saying Hamas' demands were "unacceptable" [2]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The Fed will shift to a dovish stance in the July FOMC meeting, confirm the pace of interest rate cuts in the second half of the year, and cut interest rates by 25 basis points in the September FOMC meeting [3] - In the context of the expected loosening of the Fed's monetary policy, attention should be paid to the opportunity to go long on silver. The reference operating range for the main contract of Shanghai Gold is 760 - 801 yuan/gram, and the reference operating range for the main contract of Shanghai Silver is 8638 - 9300 yuan/kilogram [3] - Although Fed Chairman Powell's stance was neutral to hawkish, it is certain that the Fed will enter a new round of interest rate cut cycle in the second half of the year, and a long - position thinking should be maintained for precious metal prices [2] Group 3: Summary by Related Content Market Quotes - Shanghai Gold rose 0.84% to 777.10 yuan/gram, Shanghai Silver rose 0.35% to 8770.00 yuan/kilogram; COMEX Gold rose 0.03% to 3350.90 US dollars/ounce, COMEX Silver fell 0.36% to 36.27 US dollars/ounce; the US 10 - year Treasury yield was 4.26%, and the US dollar index was 96.65 [2] Data Comparison - For gold: COMEX gold's closing price (active contract) was 3349.90 US dollars/ounce, up 1.05%; trading volume was 16.45 million lots, up 16.22%; open interest was 43.50 million lots, down 1.42%; inventory was 1152 tons, unchanged. LBMA gold's closing price was 3349.00 US dollars/ounce, up 1.87%. SHFE gold's closing price (active contract) was 776.10 yuan/gram, up 1.11%; trading volume was 27.96 million lots, down 29.87%; open interest was 41.39 million lots, up 0.75%; inventory was 18.45 tons, up 1.18%; precipitation funds were 51.393 billion yuan, up 1.86%. Au(T + D)'s closing price was 772.04 yuan/gram, up 1.03%; trading volume was 39.12 tons, down 32.28%; open interest was 217.60 tons, down 1.07% [6] - For silver: COMEX silver's closing price (active contract) was 36.25 US dollars/ounce, down 0.23%; open interest was 17.46 million lots, down 5.53%; inventory was 15589 tons, up 0.30%. LBMA silver's closing price was 36.51 US dollars/ounce, up 1.47%. SHFE silver's closing price (active contract) was 8810.00 yuan/kilogram, up 0.55%; trading volume was 65.91 million lots, down 30.60%; open interest was 86.04 million lots, down 0.05%; inventory was 1338.84 tons, up 3.01%; precipitation funds were 20.467 billion yuan, up 0.50%. Ag(T + D)'s closing price was 8805.00 yuan/kilogram, up 0.88%; trading volume was 413.62 tons, down 15.18%; open interest was 3131.158 tons, down 0.43% [6] Price and Volume Charts - Multiple charts show the relationship between precious metal prices (such as COMEX gold, Shanghai Gold, COMEX silver, Shanghai Silver), trading volume, open interest, and other factors, as well as the relationship between precious metal prices and the US dollar index, real interest rates, etc. [8][9][11][16][21][22][28][30][39][40][42][50][54] Price Difference Statistics - On July 1, 2025, for gold, the SHFE - COMEX spread was 3.92 yuan/gram or 31.1035 US dollars/ounce; the SGE - LBMA spread was - 1.54 yuan/gram or - 6.69 US dollars/ounce. For silver, the SHFE - COMEX spread was 492.79 yuan/kilogram or 2.14 US dollars/ounce [54]

Core Viewpoint - The article identifies the top ten industries with growth potential for 2025 based on the analysis of A-share listed companies' salary increases and employee numbers, indicating a positive outlook for these sectors [4][5]. Industry Summaries Lithium Battery Industry - The lithium battery industry has a favorable outlook index of 48.4%, with 15 out of 31 companies meeting the criteria of a salary increase over 5% and a decrease in employee numbers not exceeding 2% [9][10]. - In 2024, the industry is projected to have a revenue of 636.5 billion yuan, a decrease of 2.84% year-on-year, but a positive trend is expected in 2025 with a revenue increase of 12.5% in Q1 [11]. - The global lithium battery shipment is expected to reach 1,545 GWh in 2024, with a compound annual growth rate of 22.1% from 2024 to 2030 [10][11]. Electric Motor Industry - The electric motor industry has a favorable outlook index of 50%, with 12 out of 24 companies meeting the criteria [17][20]. - In Q1 2025, the industry revenue is projected to be 17.2 billion yuan, an increase of 11% year-on-year, indicating a positive trend [21]. - The industry is evolving towards smart, digital, lightweight, efficient, and new types of motors [19]. Discrete Devices Industry - The discrete devices industry has a favorable outlook index of 52.9%, with 9 out of 17 companies meeting the criteria [28][31]. - In Q1 2025, the industry revenue is expected to be 8.9 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 20.3% [34]. - The industry is experiencing a period of adjustment, but inventory turnover days have significantly decreased for 11 out of 17 companies, indicating a positive trend [32]. Printed Circuit Board (PCB) Industry - The PCB industry has a favorable outlook index of 53.5%, with 23 out of 43 companies meeting the criteria [40][42]. - In Q1 2025, the industry revenue is projected to be 62.8 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 24.6% [43]. - The industry is expected to continue its growth trajectory, supported by increasing demand for high-end PCBs [41]. Chip Packaging and Testing Industry - The chip packaging and testing industry has a favorable outlook index of 53.8%, with 7 out of 13 companies meeting the criteria [48][50]. - In Q1 2025, the industry revenue is expected to be 21.9 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 23.7% [51]. - The industry is recovering from an adjustment period, with a steady increase in R&D expenses [52]. Chip Manufacturing Equipment Industry - The chip manufacturing equipment industry has a favorable outlook index of 55%, with 11 out of 20 companies meeting the criteria [58][62]. - In Q1 2025, the industry revenue is projected to be 17.9 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 34.6% [63]. - The industry is experiencing rapid growth, with significant increases in both revenue and net profit [62]. Power Transmission and Transformation Equipment Industry - The power transmission and transformation equipment industry has a favorable outlook index of 55.2%, with 16 out of 29 companies meeting the criteria [68][71]. - In Q1 2025, the industry revenue is expected to be 47.8 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.9% [72]. - The industry is supported by increasing demand for renewable energy integration and smart grid upgrades [70]. Digital Chip Design Industry - The digital chip design industry has a favorable outlook index of 56.3%, with 27 out of 48 companies meeting the criteria [78][81]. - In Q1 2025, the industry revenue is projected to be 38 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 20.3% [82]. - The industry is expected to benefit from the growing demand for GPUs and storage technologies [80]. Precious Metals Industry - The precious metals industry has a favorable outlook index of 58.3%, with 7 out of 12 companies meeting the criteria [88][92]. - In Q1 2025, the industry revenue is expected to be 162.8 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 13.4% [92]. - The industry is experiencing a positive trend due to rising gold and silver prices driven by market concerns [89].