贵金属(黄金

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广发早知道:汇总版-20250930
Guang Fa Qi Huo· 2025-09-30 01:52
2025 年 9 月 30 日星期二 广发早知道-汇总版 投资咨询业务资格: 广发期货研究所 电 话:020-88818009 E-Mail:zhangxiaozhen@gf.com.cn 目录: 2025 年 9 月 30 日 金融衍生品: 金融期货: 股指期货、国债期货 贵金属: 黄金、白银 集运欧线 商品期货: 有色金属: 铜、氧化铝、铝、铝合金、锌、锡、镍、不锈钢、碳酸锂 黑色金属: 钢材、铁矿石、焦煤、焦炭 农产品: 油脂、粕类、玉米、生猪、白糖、棉花、鸡蛋、红枣、苹果 能源化工: 原油、PTA、乙二醇、苯乙烯、短纤、尿素、瓶片、烧碱、PVC、LLDPE、 PP 特殊商品: 橡胶、玻璃纯碱、工业硅、多晶硅 证监许可【2011】1292 号 组长联系信息: 张晓珍(投资咨询资格:Z0003135) 电话:020- 88818009 邮箱:zhangxiaozhen@gf.com.cn 刘珂(投资咨询资格:Z0016336) 电话:020-88818026 邮箱:qhliuke@gf.com.cn 分行业板块看,化工及金融强势,上涨板块中,券商、贵金属、基本金属分别上涨 4.89%、4.30%、 3.2 ...
银河期货贵金属衍生品日报-20250915
Yin He Qi Huo· 2025-09-15 12:15
大宗商品研究所 贵金属研发报告 贵金属衍生品日报 2025 年 9 月 15 日 研究所副所长:车红云 期货从业证号:F03088215 投资咨询号:Z0017510 研究员:王露晨 CFA 期货从业证号:F03110758 投资咨询号:Z0021675 联系方式: 上海:021-65789219 北京:010-68569781 邮箱: wangluchen_qh@chinastock.co m.cn 贵金属衍生品日报 【市场回顾】 1.贵金属市场: 今天白天,外盘贵金属在历史高位附近窄幅波动,伦敦金当前 交投于 3641 美元附近;伦敦银当前交投于 42.2 美元附近。受外盘驱动,沪金最 终收涨 0.1%,报 831.6 元/克;沪银主力合约最终收涨 0.88%,报 10017 元/千 克。 2.美元指数:美元指数低位盘整,当前交投于 97.56 附近。 3.美债收益率:10 年美债收益率小幅反弹,当前交投于 4.07%附近。 1.美国宏观:①美国 9 月一年期通胀率预期初值 4.8%,预期 4.7%,前值 4.80%。②美国 9 月密歇根大学消费者信心指数初值 55.4,预期 58,前值 58.2。 2. ...
广发早知道:汇总版-20250904
Guang Fa Qi Huo· 2025-09-04 02:24
Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The report provides a comprehensive analysis of various financial derivatives and commodity futures, including market conditions, news, and operation suggestions for each category [1]. - Different sectors show diverse trends. For example, in the stock index futures market, major indices declined, while in the precious metals market, prices continued to rise due to weak US employment data and increased expectations of interest rate cuts [2][7]. Summary by Directory Financial Derivatives Financial Futures - **Stock Index Futures**: Major indices opened higher and then declined. The Shanghai Composite Index fell 1.16%, and most sectors adjusted. The four major stock index futures contracts also declined, and the basis of the main contracts decreased. It is recommended to wait and see [2][3][4]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The bond market sentiment improved as the stock market fell. Treasury bond futures rose across the board, and the yields of major interest - rate bonds generally declined. It is recommended to use interval operations and pay attention to the basis convergence strategy of the TL contract [5][6]. Precious Metals - Gold and silver prices continued to rise. Weak US employment data strengthened the expectation of interest rate cuts, and the decline in US Treasury yields increased the demand for precious metals. Gold reached a record high of $3559.02 per ounce, and silver closed at $41.19 per ounce. It is expected that gold may rise above $3600, and silver may quickly rise above $42, but caution is needed [7][8][9]. Container Shipping on European Routes - The spot price of container shipping continued to decline, and the futures market was expected to fluctuate. The 12 - 10 month - spread arbitrage strategy can be considered [10][11]. Commodity Futures Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: The center of copper price has risen due to the improvement of interest rate cut expectations. However, the upside space is limited, and it is expected to fluctuate. The main contract is recommended to operate in the range of 79000 - 81000 yuan/ton [12][13][16]. - **Alumina**: The market presents a pattern of "high supply, high inventory, and weak demand". The price is expected to fluctuate weakly, and it is recommended to consider short - selling at high prices in the medium term. The main contract is expected to operate in the range of 2900 - 3200 yuan/ton [17][18]. - **Aluminum**: The price is expected to fluctuate widely in the range of 20400 - 21000 yuan/ton. It is necessary to pay attention to the pressure level of 21000 yuan/ton and the actual start of peak - season demand [19][20][21]. - **Zinc**: The refined zinc output is higher than expected, and the domestic inventory continues to accumulate. The price is expected to fluctuate in the range of 21500 - 23000 yuan/ton [23][24][26]. - **Tin**: The supply remains tight, and the price fluctuates at a high level. It is recommended to wait and see, and the price is expected to fluctuate in the range of 265000 - 285000 yuan/ton [26][27][29]. - **Nickel**: The price is expected to adjust in the range of 118000 - 126000 yuan/ton. It is necessary to pay attention to macro - expectations and import/export conditions [29][30][31]. - **Stainless Steel**: The price is expected to fluctuate in the range of 12600 - 13400 yuan/ton. It is necessary to pay attention to raw material dynamics and the realization of peak - season demand [32][33][35]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The market is in a tight - balance state. The price is expected to fluctuate widely after the price center moves down, and it is recommended to wait and see. The main contract is expected to operate in the range of 70000 - 75000 yuan/ton [36][37][38]. Ferrous Metals - **Steel**: The apparent demand for rebar declined, and the steel price maintained a weak downward trend. It is recommended to sell out - of - the - money put options and consider going long on the ratio of steel to iron ore [39][40]. - **Iron Ore**: The global shipment volume increased, and the 45 - port arrival volume rose. The price is expected to fluctuate in the range of 750 - 810 yuan/ton, and it is recommended to go long on iron ore and short on coking coal [41][42][43]. - **Coking Coal**: The price fluctuated weakly. It is recommended to hold short positions and go long on iron ore and short on coking coal [44][46]. - **Coke**: The seventh round of price increase by mainstream coking plants was implemented, but the eighth round was blocked. It is recommended to hold short positions and go long on iron ore and short on coke [47][48][49]. Agricultural Products - **Meal Products**: Sino - US trade has not made substantial progress, and the domestic bullish expectation remains unchanged. It is recommended to wait for the market to stabilize and then go long on the dips [50][52]. - **Hogs**: The supply - demand contradiction in the market is limited. It is recommended to operate cautiously and pay attention to the support levels of 13500 for the 11 - contract and 13800 for the 01 - contract [53][54]. - **Corn**: The short - term market will fluctuate and adjust, and the medium - term trend is weak. It is recommended to go short on the rallies [55][56].
机构看金市:7月17日
Xin Hua Cai Jing· 2025-07-17 05:31
Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that various factors are intertwining, leading to fluctuations in precious metals, with a focus on gold and silver prices [1][2] - The U.S. CPI data shows a moderate inflation rate, with a 0.3% month-on-month increase and a 2.7% year-on-year rise, aligning with market expectations [2] - BCA Research suggests that the main factors driving gold prices up over the past three years are still in play, with expectations for gold to test historical highs again [3] Group 2 - Citigroup forecasts that silver prices will rise above $40 per ounce in the coming months, driven by tightening physical supply and increasing investment demand [3] - The market is currently sensitive to event-driven factors, particularly U.S. trade policies and geopolitical uncertainties, which may lead to repeated fluctuations in risk sentiment [2] - The overall long-term support logic for precious metals remains intact, despite short-term volatility, due to factors like fiscal deficits and economic slowdown expectations [2][3]
贵金属日报-20250707
Guo Tou Qi Huo· 2025-07-07 11:32
Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - Gold: ★★★, indicating a clearer long - term trend and relatively appropriate investment opportunities currently [1] - Silver: ★★★, indicating a clearer long - term trend and relatively appropriate investment opportunities currently [1] 2) Core View of the Report - Today, precious metals declined. The better - than - expected US non - farm payrolls in June and the decrease in the unemployment rate led the market to abandon bets on a July interest rate cut. Economic data shows that the economy is not significantly weakening, and the Fed will base its next move on data performance. After the geopolitical risks cooled down and economic data suppressed the interest rate cut expectations, the market's focus this week is on the change of the US reciprocal tariff policy expiring on July 9. Trump said new tariffs would take effect on August 1, with rates ranging from 10 - 70%. The short - term direction of precious metals is unclear, and they will continue to fluctuate waiting for the impact of the final policy on market risk sentiment [1] 3) Other Key Points - On July 4, Trump signed a nearly 900 - page "big and beautiful" tax and spending bill, which includes many of his 2024 campaign promises. The bill will increase the federal fiscal deficit by about $3.3 trillion in the next decade [2] - US Treasury Secretary Besent said that several major agreements are close to being reached. If countries receiving tariff letters fail to reach an agreement, the tax rate will return to the April level on August 1. US Commerce Secretary Lutnick said tariffs will take effect on August 1, and Trump is "now formulating tax rates and agreements". White House economic adviser Hassett said some trade negotiations may exceed the deadline [2] - Israel and Hamas' first - round indirect cease - fire negotiations in Qatar ended without results, with Israel saying Hamas' demands were "unacceptable" [2]
五矿期货贵金属日报-20250702
Wu Kuang Qi Huo· 2025-07-02 03:11
市场展望: 昨日美联储主席鲍威尔表态中性偏鹰派,但联储在下半年进入新一轮的降息周期是具备确定性 的,对于贵金属价格仍需维持多头思路。 贵金属日报 2025-07-02 贵金属 钟俊轩 贵金属研究员 从业资格号:F03112694 交易咨询号:Z0022090 电话:0755-23375141 邮箱: zhongjunxuan@wkqh.cn 沪金涨 0.84 %,报 777.10 元/克,沪银涨 0.35 %,报 8770.00 元/千克;COMEX 金涨 0.03 %, 报 3350.90 美元/盎司,COMEX 银跌 0.36 %,报 36.27 美元/盎司; 美国 10 年期国债收益率 报 4.26%,美元指数报 96.65 ; 昨夜美联储主席鲍威尔在欧洲央行举办的会议中表明当前美国经济依旧稳健,联储有条件继续 观察关税上调对于物价和经济增长的影响。但鲍威尔本次对于降息的表态较先前已经有所缓 和,鲍威尔认为无法断言七月份议息会议降息是否过早,他不会排除任何一次会议降息的可能 性,但无法直接确定哪一次会议将会采取行动。关于数据,鲍威尔指出 FOMC 将会特别留意通 胀数据的表现以及劳动力市场意外走弱的情况 ...
2025年,前景最被看好的十大行业
36氪· 2025-05-19 09:42
Core Viewpoint - The article identifies the top ten industries with growth potential for 2025 based on the analysis of A-share listed companies' salary increases and employee numbers, indicating a positive outlook for these sectors [4][5]. Industry Summaries Lithium Battery Industry - The lithium battery industry has a favorable outlook index of 48.4%, with 15 out of 31 companies meeting the criteria of a salary increase over 5% and a decrease in employee numbers not exceeding 2% [9][10]. - In 2024, the industry is projected to have a revenue of 636.5 billion yuan, a decrease of 2.84% year-on-year, but a positive trend is expected in 2025 with a revenue increase of 12.5% in Q1 [11]. - The global lithium battery shipment is expected to reach 1,545 GWh in 2024, with a compound annual growth rate of 22.1% from 2024 to 2030 [10][11]. Electric Motor Industry - The electric motor industry has a favorable outlook index of 50%, with 12 out of 24 companies meeting the criteria [17][20]. - In Q1 2025, the industry revenue is projected to be 17.2 billion yuan, an increase of 11% year-on-year, indicating a positive trend [21]. - The industry is evolving towards smart, digital, lightweight, efficient, and new types of motors [19]. Discrete Devices Industry - The discrete devices industry has a favorable outlook index of 52.9%, with 9 out of 17 companies meeting the criteria [28][31]. - In Q1 2025, the industry revenue is expected to be 8.9 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 20.3% [34]. - The industry is experiencing a period of adjustment, but inventory turnover days have significantly decreased for 11 out of 17 companies, indicating a positive trend [32]. Printed Circuit Board (PCB) Industry - The PCB industry has a favorable outlook index of 53.5%, with 23 out of 43 companies meeting the criteria [40][42]. - In Q1 2025, the industry revenue is projected to be 62.8 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 24.6% [43]. - The industry is expected to continue its growth trajectory, supported by increasing demand for high-end PCBs [41]. Chip Packaging and Testing Industry - The chip packaging and testing industry has a favorable outlook index of 53.8%, with 7 out of 13 companies meeting the criteria [48][50]. - In Q1 2025, the industry revenue is expected to be 21.9 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 23.7% [51]. - The industry is recovering from an adjustment period, with a steady increase in R&D expenses [52]. Chip Manufacturing Equipment Industry - The chip manufacturing equipment industry has a favorable outlook index of 55%, with 11 out of 20 companies meeting the criteria [58][62]. - In Q1 2025, the industry revenue is projected to be 17.9 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 34.6% [63]. - The industry is experiencing rapid growth, with significant increases in both revenue and net profit [62]. Power Transmission and Transformation Equipment Industry - The power transmission and transformation equipment industry has a favorable outlook index of 55.2%, with 16 out of 29 companies meeting the criteria [68][71]. - In Q1 2025, the industry revenue is expected to be 47.8 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.9% [72]. - The industry is supported by increasing demand for renewable energy integration and smart grid upgrades [70]. Digital Chip Design Industry - The digital chip design industry has a favorable outlook index of 56.3%, with 27 out of 48 companies meeting the criteria [78][81]. - In Q1 2025, the industry revenue is projected to be 38 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 20.3% [82]. - The industry is expected to benefit from the growing demand for GPUs and storage technologies [80]. Precious Metals Industry - The precious metals industry has a favorable outlook index of 58.3%, with 7 out of 12 companies meeting the criteria [88][92]. - In Q1 2025, the industry revenue is expected to be 162.8 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 13.4% [92]. - The industry is experiencing a positive trend due to rising gold and silver prices driven by market concerns [89].