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Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that various factors are intertwining, leading to fluctuations in precious metals, with a focus on gold and silver prices [1][2] - The U.S. CPI data shows a moderate inflation rate, with a 0.3% month-on-month increase and a 2.7% year-on-year rise, aligning with market expectations [2] - BCA Research suggests that the main factors driving gold prices up over the past three years are still in play, with expectations for gold to test historical highs again [3] Group 2 - Citigroup forecasts that silver prices will rise above $40 per ounce in the coming months, driven by tightening physical supply and increasing investment demand [3] - The market is currently sensitive to event-driven factors, particularly U.S. trade policies and geopolitical uncertainties, which may lead to repeated fluctuations in risk sentiment [2] - The overall long-term support logic for precious metals remains intact, despite short-term volatility, due to factors like fiscal deficits and economic slowdown expectations [2][3]

| Millio | > 国技期货 | 贵金属日报 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 操作评级 | 2025年07月07日 | | 黄金 | ☆☆☆ | 刘冬博 高级分析师 | | 白银 | ☆☆☆ | F3062795 Z0015311 | | | | 吴江 高级分析师 | | | | F3085524 Z0016394 | | | | 010-58747784 gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn | 今日贵金属回落。上周美国6月季调后非农就业人口录得14.7万人好于普遍预期，失业率更是与预期反向下 降0.1个百分点至4.1%. 就业市场保持韧性令市场放弃七月降息押注。其他多项数据来看,ISM制造业 PMI49、职位空缺上升至去年11月以来最高水平，周度初请失业金人数维持低位均体现经济并未显著走弱, 周内鲍威尔在活动中讲话重申在经济依然稳健的情况下美联储选择保持耐心，下一步行动将完全取决于数据 表现。在地缘风险阶段性降温，经济数据压制降息预期后，本周市场关注点转向即将于7月9日到期的美国对 等关税政策变化,周五特朗普表示，美国政府将从当天起开始致函贸易伙伴,设定新的单 ...

市场展望： 昨日美联储主席鲍威尔表态中性偏鹰派，但联储在下半年进入新一轮的降息周期是具备确定性 的，对于贵金属价格仍需维持多头思路。 贵金属日报 2025-07-02 贵金属 钟俊轩 贵金属研究员 从业资格号：F03112694 交易咨询号：Z0022090 电话：0755-23375141 邮箱： zhongjunxuan@wkqh.cn 沪金涨 0.84 %，报 777.10 元/克，沪银涨 0.35 %，报 8770.00 元/千克；COMEX 金涨 0.03 %， 报 3350.90 美元/盎司，COMEX 银跌 0.36 %，报 36.27 美元/盎司； 美国 10 年期国债收益率 报 4.26%，美元指数报 96.65 ； 昨夜美联储主席鲍威尔在欧洲央行举办的会议中表明当前美国经济依旧稳健，联储有条件继续 观察关税上调对于物价和经济增长的影响。但鲍威尔本次对于降息的表态较先前已经有所缓 和，鲍威尔认为无法断言七月份议息会议降息是否过早，他不会排除任何一次会议降息的可能 性，但无法直接确定哪一次会议将会采取行动。关于数据，鲍威尔指出 FOMC 将会特别留意通 胀数据的表现以及劳动力市场意外走弱的情况 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article identifies the top ten industries with growth potential for 2025 based on the analysis of A-share listed companies' salary increases and employee numbers, indicating a positive outlook for these sectors [4][5]. Industry Summaries Lithium Battery Industry - The lithium battery industry has a favorable outlook index of 48.4%, with 15 out of 31 companies meeting the criteria of a salary increase over 5% and a decrease in employee numbers not exceeding 2% [9][10]. - In 2024, the industry is projected to have a revenue of 636.5 billion yuan, a decrease of 2.84% year-on-year, but a positive trend is expected in 2025 with a revenue increase of 12.5% in Q1 [11]. - The global lithium battery shipment is expected to reach 1,545 GWh in 2024, with a compound annual growth rate of 22.1% from 2024 to 2030 [10][11]. Electric Motor Industry - The electric motor industry has a favorable outlook index of 50%, with 12 out of 24 companies meeting the criteria [17][20]. - In Q1 2025, the industry revenue is projected to be 17.2 billion yuan, an increase of 11% year-on-year, indicating a positive trend [21]. - The industry is evolving towards smart, digital, lightweight, efficient, and new types of motors [19]. Discrete Devices Industry - The discrete devices industry has a favorable outlook index of 52.9%, with 9 out of 17 companies meeting the criteria [28][31]. - In Q1 2025, the industry revenue is expected to be 8.9 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 20.3% [34]. - The industry is experiencing a period of adjustment, but inventory turnover days have significantly decreased for 11 out of 17 companies, indicating a positive trend [32]. Printed Circuit Board (PCB) Industry - The PCB industry has a favorable outlook index of 53.5%, with 23 out of 43 companies meeting the criteria [40][42]. - In Q1 2025, the industry revenue is projected to be 62.8 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 24.6% [43]. - The industry is expected to continue its growth trajectory, supported by increasing demand for high-end PCBs [41]. Chip Packaging and Testing Industry - The chip packaging and testing industry has a favorable outlook index of 53.8%, with 7 out of 13 companies meeting the criteria [48][50]. - In Q1 2025, the industry revenue is expected to be 21.9 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 23.7% [51]. - The industry is recovering from an adjustment period, with a steady increase in R&D expenses [52]. Chip Manufacturing Equipment Industry - The chip manufacturing equipment industry has a favorable outlook index of 55%, with 11 out of 20 companies meeting the criteria [58][62]. - In Q1 2025, the industry revenue is projected to be 17.9 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 34.6% [63]. - The industry is experiencing rapid growth, with significant increases in both revenue and net profit [62]. Power Transmission and Transformation Equipment Industry - The power transmission and transformation equipment industry has a favorable outlook index of 55.2%, with 16 out of 29 companies meeting the criteria [68][71]. - In Q1 2025, the industry revenue is expected to be 47.8 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.9% [72]. - The industry is supported by increasing demand for renewable energy integration and smart grid upgrades [70]. Digital Chip Design Industry - The digital chip design industry has a favorable outlook index of 56.3%, with 27 out of 48 companies meeting the criteria [78][81]. - In Q1 2025, the industry revenue is projected to be 38 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 20.3% [82]. - The industry is expected to benefit from the growing demand for GPUs and storage technologies [80]. Precious Metals Industry - The precious metals industry has a favorable outlook index of 58.3%, with 7 out of 12 companies meeting the criteria [88][92]. - In Q1 2025, the industry revenue is expected to be 162.8 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 13.4% [92]. - The industry is experiencing a positive trend due to rising gold and silver prices driven by market concerns [89].