Group 1: Copper Market - The main copper futures in Shanghai fluctuated around 103,400 CNY, while London copper traded near 13,200 USD [4][19] - U.S. durable goods orders for November increased by 5.3%, marking the largest growth in six months, which weakened expectations for interest rate cuts and put pressure on copper prices [5][19] - The Shanghai Futures Exchange copper warehouse receipts decreased by 1,479 tons to 145,000 tons, while LME copper inventories fell by 1,175 tons to 170,000 tons [5][19] - Short-term copper prices are expected to remain high due to tight supply expectations, but high inventory levels may limit price increases [5][19] Group 2: Nickel and Stainless Steel - The nickel and stainless steel market continues to react to Indonesian policy developments, with prices expected to remain high in the short term [6][20] - The Indonesian policy outlook remains tight, with concerns over monopolistic behavior in logistics affecting market sentiment [6][20] - The reference trading range for nickel is set between 140,000 and 160,000 CNY per ton [7][21] Group 3: Aluminum Market - The aluminum market is experiencing weak fluctuations, with spot prices stabilizing [8][22] - Supply-side adjustments are being made by high-cost producers, and logistics are tightening ahead of the Spring Festival, limiting further price declines [8][22] - The reference trading range for aluminum is projected between 23,500 and 24,500 CNY per ton [9][24] Group 4: Zinc Market - Zinc prices showed strong fluctuations, supported by low treatment charges (TC) and market sentiment [10][25] - The reference trading range for zinc is set between 24,500 and 26,000 CNY per ton [10][25] Group 5: Lead Market - The lead market is experiencing weak fluctuations, with supply-demand imbalances persisting [11][25] - The reference trading range for lead is projected between 16,800 and 17,800 CNY per ton [11][25] Group 6: Precious Metals - Precious metals experienced a significant pullback after reaching new highs, driven by profit-taking and heightened market volatility [12][27] - The reference trading ranges for gold, silver, platinum, and palladium are set at 1,120-1,160 CNY per gram, 27,000-29,500 CNY per kilogram, 660-720 CNY per gram, and 480-530 CNY per gram, respectively [12][27]

Group 1: Copper Market - The main copper futures in Shanghai rose over 2% to 102,830 yuan, while London copper increased to approximately 13,134 USD [4][17] - The macroeconomic environment is neutral, with the US threatening to cut dollar supplies to Iraq, leading to a decline in the dollar to 97, which boosted copper prices [4][17] - Global copper inventories increased to 1.015 million tons, with domestic copper stocks rising by about 14,400 tons to 330,000 tons [4][17] - Short-term copper prices are expected to remain high due to tight supply expectations, but high inventory levels may limit price increases [4][17] Group 2: Nickel and Stainless Steel - The nickel and stainless steel market is experiencing short-term high-level fluctuations, influenced by tight policy expectations from Indonesia [18][19] - The supply of nickel from the Philippines is hindered by weather conditions, while Indonesian wet method nickel is relatively abundant [18][19] - Short-term nickel and stainless steel prices are expected to remain high until Indonesian policies are relaxed [18][19] Group 3: Aluminum Market - The aluminum market is seeing weak fluctuations in spot prices, with futures prices rebounding slightly after a decline [20][21] - The supply side is affected by high-cost producers adjusting production, while the production capacity of alumina remains high at 96.55 million tons [20][21] - The expected operational range for alumina futures is between 2,500 and 2,800 yuan per ton, with a bearish outlook on price rebounds [20][21] Group 4: Zinc Market - Zinc prices showed strong fluctuations, supported by improved macroeconomic sentiment and easing trade tensions between the US and Europe [23][24] - The overall supply remains limited despite some production plans being maintained, while demand from the black metal sector is weak [23][24] - The operational range for zinc futures is expected to be between 24,000 and 25,000 yuan per ton [23][24] Group 5: Lead Market - Lead prices are experiencing strong fluctuations, with supply-demand imbalances persisting due to limited domestic ore and insufficient imports [24][25] - The operational range for lead futures is expected to be between 16,800 and 17,800 yuan per ton [24][25] Group 6: Precious Metals - Precious metals are steadily rising, driven by geopolitical tensions and increased demand for safe-haven assets [27][28] - The operational ranges for gold, silver, platinum, and palladium futures are set at 1,120-1,170 yuan per gram, 25,500-27,500 yuan per kilogram, 690-750 yuan per gram, and 510-550 yuan per gram, respectively [27][28]

Core Viewpoint - The CEO of Picton Investments warns that if President Trump appoints a Federal Reserve chair perceived as too compliant, the bond market will quickly "discipline" the U.S. [1] Group 1: Market Reactions - The bond market is expected to react negatively to a Federal Reserve chair who is seen as overly submissive to political pressures [1] - Precious metals are highlighted as effective hedges against political volatility [1] Group 2: Social Media Influence - There is a noted correlation between the volume of posts on Truth Social and the trends in what is termed "debasement trade," which includes investments in gold, silver, and commodity-based hedging strategies [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The bull market of gold and silver is not over yet, and it is likely that the interest rate cut will accelerate in the second half of 2026, which is an important support for the bull market [3] - Before the new Fed Chairman takes office in May 2026, the gold and silver market should not have major problems. However, if the interest rate cut is less than expected after the new chairman takes office, there may be significant fluctuations or even a turning point [5] 3. Summary by Related Contents 3.1 Market Performance of Precious Metals - In the week before the holiday, the precious metal market experienced a roller - coaster ride. The silver price once rose by more than 10% in a single day, reaching $79 per ounce, with a year - to - date increase of more than 150%. The domestic silver price also rose significantly. It had a large intraday amplitude, with a sharp drop in the afternoon after a sharp rise on Monday, a quick rebound the next day, and a significant decline again on the last trading day before New Year's Day [1] - During the New Year's Day holiday, the international market resumed trading on January 2nd, and both gold and silver prices rebounded slightly [1] - Currently, the international silver price is in a high - level shock consolidation state. It has formed an ascending triangle consolidation pattern, with the 10 - day moving average providing support. The gold price is weaker than the silver price but is also supported by the 20 - day moving average, maintaining a slow upward trend [5] 3.2 Fed Interest Rate Expectations - The Fed's December meeting minutes showed that policymakers had significant differences on whether inflation or unemployment posed a greater risk to the US economy. Most officials believed that the labor market risk was still downward, while inflation risk was upward. They also thought that further interest rate cuts might be appropriate in the future if new data supported the expected gradual decline of inflation [1] - According to CME "FedWatch", the probability of a 25 - basis - point interest rate cut by the Fed in January 2026 is 14.9%, and the probability of keeping the interest rate unchanged is 85.1%. The probability of a cumulative 25 - basis - point interest rate cut in March is 45.2%, and the probability of keeping the interest rate unchanged is 48.3% [1] - It is estimated that there will be at most one interest rate cut before Powell leaves office in May, and the market has basically digested this expectation. The key is whether the new Fed Chairman after May will implement a cliff - like interest rate cut as Trump wishes, which remains highly uncertain [2][3] - If the economic situation, employment, and inflation do not change significantly from the current situation, especially if inflation does not rebound significantly, it is likely that the interest rate cut will accelerate in the second half of 2026 [3] 3.3 International Geopolitical Events - During the New Year's Day holiday, Venezuelan President Maduro was arrested by the US, which is expected to have a short - term impact on oil and gold prices [4] - Ukraine launched a fierce attack on the Kherson region, and Russia carried out large - scale retaliatory strikes on Ukrainian military enterprises and related energy facilities. The Russia - Ukraine situation has fallen into great uncertainty again [4]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report The report offers a comprehensive analysis of multiple sectors including financial derivatives, precious metals, shipping, non - ferrous metals, black metals, agricultural products, and energy chemicals. It assesses the market conditions, supply - demand dynamics, and price trends of various commodities, and provides corresponding investment suggestions based on these analyses [2][3][5]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily Selections - **Nickel**: Indonesia's plan to cut nickel production in 2026 has boosted market sentiment, but the actual implementation remains uncertain. The short - term reality is weak, and the medium - term fundamentals are loose. The price is expected to be strong in the short term, but the upward space is limited, with the main contract reference range of 126,000 - 135,000 [2]. - **Methanol**: Methanex's production interruption in Chile has led to a price increase. The port is facing inventory accumulation in December, but the supply - demand balance sheet is expected to shift to destocking in the first quarter of the next year. The price in the inland area is expected to fluctuate slightly [3]. - **Iron Ore**: The price is supported by the steel mill's restocking expectation, but the supply is in the off - season. It is expected to be volatile and slightly strong, with the reference range of 770 - 840 [3]. - **Corn**: The upward momentum is insufficient, and the price has fallen after reaching a high. The short - term supply pressure exists, and the price is expected to be mainly short - term, with attention paid to the changes in farmers' selling mentality and policy releases [4]. 3.2 Financial Derivatives 3.2.1 Stock Index Futures - The A - share market shows a structural theme market, with the index oscillating at a high level. The short - term negative factors are exhausted, and the index has rebounded. It is recommended to hold a bull spread combination and sell a small amount of near - month out - of - the - money call options for hedging [5][7]. 3.2.2 Treasury Bond Futures - The bond market sentiment has recovered, but it is still fragile. It is expected to be in a volatile situation in the short term. After the New Year, attention should be paid to the capital flow, central bank's bond - buying, and other factors [8][10]. 3.3 Precious Metals - The Fed's December meeting minutes have a neutral impact. The precious metals market shows a differentiated trend. In the short term, it is recommended to wait and see, and in the medium - to - long - term, investors can consider bargain - hunting after the New Year [11][13]. 3.4 Shipping (Container Shipping Index - Europe Line) - The futures contract is in a consolidation phase, lacking obvious driving forces. It is expected to be in a volatile pattern in the short term [15]. 3.5 Non - Ferrous Metals - **Copper**: The price has corrected, and the spot discount has narrowed. The medium - to - long - term fundamentals are good, but the short - term price is overestimated. It is recommended to take profits on long positions at high prices [16][19]. - **Alumina**: Policy incentives are difficult to reverse the short - term supply - demand situation. The price is expected to fluctuate widely around the cash cost line. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term and short at high prices in the medium term [19][21]. - **Aluminum**: The market is dominated by the game between strong macro expectations and weak fundamentals. It is expected to be in a high - level wide - range oscillation. It is recommended to take profits on long positions at high prices [22][24]. - **Zinc**: The TC decline supports the price. The short - term price is expected to be volatile, with attention paid to import profitability, TC inflection points, and refined zinc inventory changes [27][30]. - **Tin**: The market sentiment has subsided, and the price has fallen sharply. It is recommended to wait and see, paying attention to the macro situation and supply - side recovery [30][35]. - **Nickel**: Driven by news and technical factors, the price has broken through the previous high. The short - term supply is still sufficient, and the price is expected to be strong in the short term, but the upward space is limited [35][37]. - **Stainless Steel**: The market is in a game between strong expectations and weak reality. It is expected to be in a strong - side oscillation, with attention paid to nickel ore news and steel mill production cuts [38][40]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The end - of - year news has increased, and the price is expected to be in a wide - range oscillation. It is recommended to wait and see [42][44]. - **Polysilicon**: The price is in a high - level oscillation. In January, there is pressure to cut production due to weak demand. It is recommended to wait and see [45][47]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The price is in a low - level oscillation. Attention should be paid to the implementation of production cuts [47][49]. 3.6 Black Metals - **Steel**: The steel price is in a volatile trend. The production cut and inventory reduction support the price, but the weak demand limits the upward space. It is recommended to wait and see [49][51]. - **Iron Ore**: The price is supported by the steel mill's restocking expectation, but the supply is facing the off - season. It is expected to be volatile and slightly strong, with a short - term long - position attempt [52][53]. - **Coking Coal**: The spot price fluctuates, and the futures price has peaked and declined. It is recommended to short at high prices and consider a long - coking - coal short - coke arbitrage [55][59]. - **Coke**: The fourth round of price cuts has been launched. The supply - demand situation has weakened. It is recommended to short at high prices and consider a long - coking - coal short - coke arbitrage [60][64]. - **Ferrosilicon**: Production cuts have alleviated the supply - demand contradiction. The price is expected to be in a range - bound oscillation [65][68]. - **Silicomanganese**: The manganese ore supports the price, but the supply - demand contradiction still exists. The price is expected to be volatile, with interval operations recommended [69][71]. 3.7 Agricultural Products - **Soybean Meal**: The South American soybean harvest expectation suppresses the market. The domestic spot is loose. The short - term price is expected to be volatile, and cautious operation is recommended [72][74]. - **Pig**: The demand supports the market. The spot price is expected to be strong in the short term, and the futures price is expected to be in a strong - side oscillation [75][76]. - **Corn**: The upward momentum is insufficient, and the price has fallen after reaching a high. The short - term supply pressure exists, and the price is expected to be mainly short - term [77][79]. - **Sugar**: The raw sugar price is in a low - level oscillation. The domestic supply pressure restricts the price. It is recommended to short on rebounds [80][82]. - **Cotton**: The ICE cotton futures are in a bottom - level oscillation. The domestic price has reached a new high for the year. The short - term price may correct, and the medium - to - long - term trend is relatively optimistic [83][85]. - **Egg**: The supply is loose, and the demand is weak. The price is expected to be in a low - level oscillation [86][87]. - **Edible Oils**: The palm oil has a short - term upward trend, but the overall oils should not be over - bullish. Different oils have different price trends and risks [88][90]. - **Jujube**: The cost supports the price, but the consumption improvement is limited. Attention should be paid to the delivery situation of the 01 contract and the Spring Festival stocking [91][92]. - **Apple**: The demand is weak, and the price is declining. The short - term market is in a game between scarce delivery fruits and high - inventory ordinary fruits [93]. 3.8 Energy Chemicals - **PX**: The valuation has increased significantly, and the downstream negative feedback is prominent. The short - term price is under pressure. It is recommended to wait and see before the festival and go long at low prices in the medium term [94][95]. - **PTA**: The processing fee has recovered, and the downstream negative feedback is obvious. The short - term price is under pressure. It is recommended to wait and see before the festival and go long at low prices in the medium term [96][97]. - **Short - Fiber**: The supply - demand expectation is weak, and the price follows the raw materials. It is recommended to have the same strategy as PTA and short the processing fee at high prices [98]. - **Bottle Chip**: The cost is strong, and the supply expectation increases. The short - term processing fee will be compressed. It is recommended to have the same strategy as PTA and short the processing fee at high prices [99][101]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The overseas supply is expected to shrink, but the near - month inventory accumulation expectation remains unchanged. It is recommended to conduct a reverse spread on EG5 - 9 at high prices [102]. - **Pure Benzene**: The supply - demand pattern is weak, and the price driving force is limited. The price is expected to be in a low - level oscillation [103][104]. - **Styrene**: The supply - demand expectation is weak, and the rebound space is limited. It is recommended to short above 6800 and short the processing fee at high prices [105][106]. - **LLDPE**: The basis remains stable, and the transaction is neutral. It is recommended to go long on the 2605 contract in the short term [107]. - **PP**: The supply and demand are both weak, and the price fluctuates slightly. Attention should be paid to the PDH profit expansion [107]. - **Methanol**: Affected by geopolitical factors, the price has strengthened. It is recommended to pay attention to the MTO05 spread contraction [108][109]. - **Caustic Soda**: The futures price has rebounded strongly, and the现货 price has declined steadily. The price is expected to be in a wide - range oscillation [109][110]. - **PVC**: The supply pressure has increased marginally, and the high - price transaction is light. The price is expected to weaken after a rebound [111][112]. - **Soda Ash**: The production rate has declined, and the inventory has decreased. It is recommended to wait and see [113][114]. - **Glass**: Supported by production line cold - repair and improved sales rate, the price is expected to be in a bottom - level oscillation and strengthen [113][115]. - **Natural Rubber**: The market sentiment has subsided, and it is recommended to hold short positions [117]. - **Synthetic Rubber**: The fundamental support is limited, and the price follows the commodity trend. It is expected to be in a wide - range oscillation between 11,200 - 12,000 [118][119].

Domestic Economic Indicators - Industrial enterprise profits from January to November increased by 0.1% year-on-year, while profits in November alone fell by 13.1% due to weakening production and profit margins[1] - The average operating rate of blast furnaces in December recorded 78.88%, a decrease of 3.42 percentage points from the previous month[1] - Retail sales of passenger cars in December decreased by 19.5% year-on-year, with a month-on-month increase of 2.9%[1] International Economic Indicators - The U.S. GDP for Q3 2025 grew at an annualized rate of 4.3%, driven primarily by increased consumer spending, exports, and government expenditure[4] - Core PCE inflation in the U.S. rose to an annualized rate of 2.9%, indicating a marginal increase in inflationary pressures[4] - Gold prices reached a new high of $4549.95 per ounce, while silver prices hit a record high of $79.33, reflecting a strong performance in precious metals markets[1] Market Trends - The Baltic Dry Index (BDI) averaged 2339.2, showing a month-on-month increase of 6.2% and a year-on-year increase of 113.6%[1] - The average price of copper increased by 3.65% week-on-week, driven by a combination of weak dollar and improved global demand expectations[3] - The issuance of local government bonds is planned at 580 billion yuan for January 2026, with a total of 4.58 trillion yuan issued this year, exceeding the annual quota[3]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that Federal Reserve Chair Beth Hammack suggests maintaining current interest rates for a period, reflecting her hawkish stance amid inflation uncertainties [1][4] - Hammack's "baseline assumption" is that rates will remain unchanged until inflation significantly decreases or the job market shows notable weakness [1][4] - Recent CPI data indicates a drop in overall inflation from 3.1% to 2.7% in November, with core inflation showing a similar decline, but Hammack remains cautious about the data due to potential statistical distortions from government shutdowns [1][4] Group 2 - Hammack has been viewed as one of the most hawkish members of the Federal Reserve since joining in 2024, and her future voting power in the FOMC could directly influence interest rate decisions [2][5] - There is a divergence within the Federal Reserve regarding the neutral interest rate level, with current rates perceived by some as above neutral, while Hammack views them as slightly below, indicating a potentially stimulative policy [2][5] - The differing opinions on interest rates may lead to increased uncertainty in future rate decisions, particularly as Hammack's hawkish position could maintain high rates in the coming months [3][6]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Gold: ★★★, indicating a clearer long - trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently [1] - Silver: ★★★, indicating a clearer long - trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently [1] 2. Core View of the Report - Today, precious metals continued to adjust. The delayed - released September non - farm payrolls in the US increased by 119,000, exceeding expectations and the previous value, but the unemployment rate rose slightly by 0.1 percentage points to 4.4%. The weekly initial jobless claims were 223,000, lower than expected and remaining at a low level, showing employment resilience. However, the October non - farm and OPI data won't be released, and the November data will be postponed to mid - November, meaning there will be a lack of key data reference before the next Fed meeting. Fed officials' recent statements have significant differences, and the market's bets on a December rate cut have been fluctuating. On Friday, the New York Fed President's statement that there is still room for interest rate adjustment increased the implied probability of a rate cut in the interest rate market to around 70%. Geopolitically, the US proposed a 28 - point Ukraine peace plan, which was opposed by some European allies, and multi - party games will continue. The strong Nvidia earnings last week supported the US stocks, but then the US stocks sharply corrected, and there are still concerns about the bubble. Short - term market news is complex, and precious metals are in high - level oscillations. Attention should be paid to the directional breakthrough in the technical aspect [1] 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs 3.1 Russia - Ukraine Conflict - US and Ukrainian representatives said the Geneva talks "made progress", and Rubio said Trump was satisfied with the talks report. Zelensky stated that the US peace plan is expected to incorporate Ukraine's core interests. Europe put forward a counter - proposal to the 28 - point plan, including the US providing NATO Article 5 - style protection, Ukraine not using military means to recover occupied territories, territorial negotiations based on the current military contact line, and allowing Ukraine to join NATO with NATO's consensus. US and Ukrainian officials are discussing Zelensky's visit to the US this week. US Treasury Secretary Bessent said Trump is pressuring Russia to end the conflict and is confident that the Russia - Ukraine peace process is advancing. Trump thinks November 27 is a suitable deadline for Ukraine to accept the peace agreement terms [2] 3.2 Fed - Williams believes there is still room for a rate cut in the near term. Collins thinks there is a reason to be cautious about a December rate cut and expects further rate cuts in the future. Milan will support a 25 - basis - point rate cut if his vote is decisive. Logan believes the Fed needs to "temporarily keep interest rates unchanged" when inflation is still high and the labor market is generally balanced [2]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - Gold and silver are rated ★★★, indicating a clearer long/short trend and a relatively appropriate current investment opportunity [1]. 2) Core View of the Report - Overnight, precious metals fluctuated with sharp intraday movements. The Fed's October meeting minutes showed significant differences among officials, and the market's expectation of a December interest rate cut dropped below 40%. The market is waiting for the belatedly released September non - farm payroll data to weigh the economic and monetary policy outlook. However, the October data will not be released, the November data is postponed, and the Fed's December meeting resolution still faces a dilemma of lacking data support. Precious metals are oscillating at high levels, waiting for new drivers and technical directional guidance [1]. 3) Other Key Information - It is reported that the US and Russia secretly drafted a 28 - point peace negotiation framework, which requires Ukraine to cede territory, disarm, and restrict weapons. The discussion of this framework hardly consulted Ukraine or Europe. White House officials expect Russia and Ukraine to reach a framework agreement before the end of November, but Ukraine opposes the agreement [2]. - The US authorities canceled the October non - farm payroll report, and the November report is rescheduled to be released on December 16th. That is, the Fed will lack the latest non - farm data reference during its December interest rate meeting. Milan said there is a "possibility" of further reducing its balance sheet in the future. Trump's joke about the Treasury Secretary insinuated Powell. The Fed's October meeting minutes showed that officials had significant differences: during the October interest rate cut, several people opposed the cut, and some others were in favor of a cut but also accepted keeping the interest rate unchanged. Several people thought that the interest rate should be cut again in December, and many people thought it should remain unchanged [2].

Group 1 - Domestic commodities mostly declined on October 31, with lithium carbonate dropping over 3%, and other commodities like 20 rubber, methanol, and silicon iron falling over 2% [1][5] - The China Securities Commodity Futures Price Index closed at 1474.01 points, down 3.29 points or 0.22% from the previous trading day [1] - The main contract for polysilicon rose by 2.73%, driven by positive rumors regarding "storage" initiatives, reaching a two-month high [2] Group 2 - Precious metals, including gold and silver, recorded gains of over 1%, influenced by overseas market conditions and ongoing uncertainties in the U.S. economy [3] - The market for polysilicon is expected to see a supply contraction in November, further supporting price increases despite weak demand [2] - Other commodities like soybean meal, No. 2 yellow soybeans, and corn showed slight increases, contrasting with the overall market trend [4]