图：1月8日下午，深圳水贝金展珠宝市场部分柜台展示着新增的白银产品；图源：上证报记者杨仪摄 一度作为黄金"影子"的白银在近期创下价格历史纪录后，出现大幅回调，步入高位震荡状态。 银价的震荡之势，也使得国内最大的黄金珠宝交易集散地深圳水贝，在过去一段时间出现了罕见的白银现货需求大起伏。 实探深圳水贝白银需求起伏 在刚刚过去的2025年，伦敦现货白银价格全年上涨近150%，高于现货黄金同期约65%的涨幅。近日，记者实地走访发现，伴随白银价格迭创新高，深圳 水贝黄金珠宝市场一些原本售卖黄金饰品的铺位在柜台新增了白银产品。部分商家销量上扬，尤其银条、银元宝等"低工费、偏投资"品类更受追捧。 "很多之前投资黄金的散户投资客，近期改为投资银条、银锭。近一个月水贝的白银经常拿不到现货。尤其是白银价格快速上涨的那段时间，购买需求旺 盛，但很多商家没有备很多货，因此出现了加价购买的情况。"锦绣传承珠宝黄金店店长邓维佳对上证报记者说。 邢宁是深圳一家贵金属实物产品零售企业的副总经理。他所在的公司主要从上海黄金交易所会员单位采购贵金属原材料再加工为贵金属投资类产品在线下 销售。 "现在白银供不应求，经常有断货的情况，很多白银加工工 ...

2026年刚开年，黄金、白银便强势飘红，给了市场一个不小的惊喜。 Wind数据显示，截至1月6日盘中，2026年以来仅短短4个交易日，COMEX白银期货大幅上涨超10%， COMEX黄金期货也涨超3%。 业内专家预测，在地缘政治、央行购金、美联储降息等推动下，黄金价格后续可能涨至5000美元/盎 司，白银涨至100美元/盎司。 金银齐涨，有黄金ETF一日吸金超10亿元 "2025年12月初，我给朋友送了个40克的银手镯当生日礼物。当时价格约为609元，这还不到一个月，同 样的银手镯已经涨到了1126元，真的是太快了！"杨女士对贝壳财经记者感叹，同一天，自己还买了一 个30克的银元宝，买价455元，现在已涨至715元。 高盛预计，国际金价可能在2026年第一季度回落至4200美元/盎司的低位，第二季度有望回升至4400美 元/盎司上方，第三季度或站上4600美元/盎司，第四季度末甚至可能升至4900美元/盎司。 不足一个月，银手镯和银元宝分别上涨85%和约57%，背后是国际银价的飙升。 Wind数据显示，2025年以来，白银价格一路狂奔。2025年10月13日，COMEX白银期货价格突破50美 元/盎司，为历史 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the significant rise in silver prices, driven by a combination of supply-demand dynamics and expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [4][5][6]. - Silver has experienced a remarkable increase, with prices reaching $57 per ounce, marking a year-to-date gain of nearly 100% [5][6]. - The Shanghai Futures Exchange reported that the main silver contract price surged to 13,520 yuan per kilogram, reflecting an increase of over 7% and marking eight consecutive months of price growth [5][6]. Group 2 - The Federal Reserve is expected to lower interest rates in December, with a probability of 87.4% for a 25 basis point cut, which is anticipated to support precious metal prices [4][5]. - The global silver supply has been in a state of shortage for the past five years, with increasing demand from the solar energy sector contributing to the price surge [5][6]. - Analysts suggest that the current economic environment, characterized by rising inflation and a weakening job market, is favorable for silver, which possesses both precious and industrial metal attributes [7][8]. Group 3 - The inflow of speculative funds and strong fundamentals have led to silver exhibiting greater price elasticity compared to gold [8]. - The largest silver ETF, SLV, reported a holding of 15,610.54 tons, indicating a daily increase of 28.21 tons, maintaining high levels of investment interest [9]. - Sales of silver investment products, such as silver bars and coins, have surged by over 40% year-on-year due to the recent price increases [10].

上海期货交易所的白银主力合约价格涨至13520元/公斤，涨幅超过7%，月线上已经连续上涨8个月。 截至发稿，国际银价、铜价早盘大涨后小幅回落，现货白银涨0.97%，报56.945美元/盎司，COMEX白 银涨0.5%。 12月1日，LME铜期货价格大幅拉涨，截至发稿报11249美元/吨。沪铜站上89100元/吨，大涨超2%，盘 中刷新历史新高。 本周，美联储将进入12月会议前的"噤声期"。本周二，美联储主席鲍威尔将在一场纪念活动中发表讲 话。正值"噤声期"，鲍威尔料不会发表有关货币政策相关的重要表态。 市场焦点转向即将出炉的诸多经济数据。其中，"美联储最青睐的通胀指标"——美国9月个人消费支出 （PCE）报告将于周五公布，预计9月整体PCE同比涨幅将微升至2.8%，核心PCE价格指数同比涨幅预 计将维持在2.9%不变。 据CME"美联储观察"的最新数据显示，美联储12月降息25个基点的概率为87.4%，维持利率不变的概率 为12.6%。美联储到明年1月累计降息25个基点的概率为67.5%，维持利率不变的概率为9.2%，累计降息 50个基点的概率为23.2%。 高盛表示，美联储将在12月9—10日议息会议上下调 ...

记者丨 叶麦穗 编辑丨曾芳 12月1日，亚洲早盘，避险情绪再度升温，现货黄金在4220美元关口上方震荡； 现货白银历史首次触及57美元/盎司，日内涨幅一度超过 2.5%，今年以来涨幅已经达到98%，逼近100% ；COMEX白银盘中突破58美元/盎司，日内涨1.47%。 上海期货交易所的白银主力合约价格涨至13520元/公斤，涨幅超过7%，月线上已经连续上涨8个月。 截至发稿，国际银价、铜价早盘大涨后小幅回落，现货白银涨0.97%，报56.945美元/盎司，COMEX白银涨0.5%。 12月1日，LME铜期货价格大幅拉涨，截至发稿报11249美元/吨。沪铜站上89100元/吨，大涨超2%，盘中刷新历史新高。 白银已经连续8个月上涨 本周，美联储将进入12月会议前的"噤声期"。本周二，美联储主席鲍威尔将在一场纪念活动中发表讲话。正值"噤声期"，鲍威尔料不会发表有 关货币政策相关的重要表态。 市场焦点转向即将出炉的诸多经济数据。其中，"美联储最青睐的通胀指标"——美国9月个人消费支出（PCE）报告将于周五公布，预计9 月整体PCE同比涨幅将微升至2.8%，核心PCE价格指数同比涨幅预计将维持在2.9%不变。 与此 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent surge in gold and silver prices has led to a significant shift in investor interest, with silver emerging as a more attractive investment option compared to gold, particularly due to its lower entry cost and higher percentage gains [1][6][11]. Price Trends - Gold prices increased from $4000/oz to $4300/oz within a week, while domestic investment gold approached 1000 RMB/g [1]. - Silver has seen a year-to-date increase of over 87%, outperforming gold during the same period [1][11]. Market Dynamics - The silver market is experiencing heightened activity, with increased foot traffic at silver counters and a notable rise in silver group purchases, indicating a shift in consumer behavior [1][8]. - A silver group established by an investor saw membership grow by nearly 300 people in just a few days, highlighting the growing interest in silver investments [8]. Investment Comparisons - An investor noted that with the same amount of 10,000 RMB, one could purchase approximately 10 grams of gold or over 800 grams of silver, with silver yielding a profit of over 700 RMB compared to gold if purchased a month ago [4][6]. - The lower entry barrier for silver investments is attracting more retail investors, including those who previously focused on gold [6][11]. Supply and Demand - The demand for silver has surged, with reports of silver bar sales reaching over 100 kg in a single day for some sellers, and a doubling of silver board material sales in the past month [8][10]. - A silver board manufacturer reported that their inventory was completely booked, indicating strong demand amid rising prices [10]. Future Outlook - Analysts suggest that silver prices may continue to rise due to macroeconomic factors and industrial demand, although they caution about the potential for increased volatility and risks associated with speculative trading [13][14]. - The industrial demand for silver is expected to benefit from the transition to green energy and economic recovery, further supporting price increases [11][14].

Core Viewpoint - The prices of gold and silver have surged significantly since October, with gold reaching $4,300 per ounce and silver showing an impressive increase of over 87% year-to-date, making it an attractive investment option for many [1][2][5]. Price Trends - As of October 17, 2023, the international gold price opened at $4,392 per ounce, while domestic gold prices exceeded 990 yuan per gram, reflecting a year-to-date increase of over 60% [2][10]. - The London silver spot price reached $54.17 per ounce, with domestic silver prices surpassing 12 yuan per gram, indicating a year-to-date increase of over 87% [2][10]. Investment Shifts - Investors are increasingly favoring silver over gold due to lower entry costs and higher potential returns, with one investor noting a profit of over 700 yuan from silver compared to gold for the same investment amount [2][5]. - There is a noticeable shift in investment strategies, with large institutions adjusting their portfolios to increase silver holdings, and retail investors showing heightened interest in silver investments [5][10]. Market Dynamics - The demand for silver has surged, leading to a doubling of sales for silver products in the past month, with some manufacturers reporting sold-out inventories [6][9]. - The silver market is experiencing heightened activity, with traders facing tight supplies and fluctuating prices, indicating a competitive environment for silver procurement [9][10]. Future Outlook - Analysts predict that silver prices may continue to rise due to industrial demand and macroeconomic factors, although short-term volatility and risks are expected to be higher than those for gold [10][14]. - The industrial demand for silver is projected to reach a historical high, with a 17% year-on-year increase, further supporting the bullish outlook for silver [10][11].

Core Insights - Silver prices have surged significantly, reaching historical highs, with London spot silver hitting over $53 per ounce, marking an 84% increase year-to-date, outperforming gold's 60% rise [1][2] - The demand for silver has intensified, leading to shortages in the market, particularly in major trading hubs like Shenzhen [2][3] - Investment interest in silver is growing, with banks launching new silver investment products to cater to rising consumer demand [3][4] Price Performance - As of October 16, 2023, London silver prices reached $53.20 per ounce, while COMEX silver was at $52.85 per ounce, both showing over 80% gains since the beginning of the year [1][2] - The year-to-date increase in silver prices has been 82.54%, significantly higher than gold's 61.21% [2] Market Dynamics - The tight supply of silver has led to a "silver rush," with reports of high demand and limited availability for larger silver bars [2][3] - The price of silver has risen from approximately 7 yuan per gram last year to over 12 yuan per gram currently, indicating a substantial increase in market value [2] Investment Trends - There is a notable shift in investor sentiment, with many moving from gold to silver due to the latter's price performance [1][3] - Financial institutions are increasingly offering silver investment products, with various banks launching silver bars and related investment options [3][4] Risk and Volatility - Silver prices are characterized by higher volatility compared to gold, which may pose risks for investors [4] - The industrial demand for silver, particularly in the photovoltaic sector, adds complexity to its price dynamics, with potential for both upward and downward movements based on market conditions [4] Future Outlook - Analysts suggest that while silver has experienced rapid price increases, a period of consolidation may be necessary before further gains can be realized [5] - The medium-term outlook remains positive, with expectations for silver prices to maintain levels above 15 yuan per gram [5]

Core Viewpoint - The prices of gold and silver have surged significantly since October, with gold reaching $4,300 per ounce and silver gaining over 87% year-to-date, leading to increased interest and investment in silver as an alternative to gold [1][4][6]. Price Trends - As of October 17, 2023, international gold prices opened at $4,392 per ounce, marking a year-to-date increase of over 60%, while silver prices reached $54.17 per ounce, with domestic investment silver prices exceeding 12 yuan per gram [4][6]. - The price ratio of gold to silver has shifted to approximately 80:1, indicating that silver may be undervalued compared to historical averages [11]. Market Dynamics - The surge in silver prices has led to a notable increase in consumer interest, with reports of significant sales volumes, such as over 100 kilograms of silver sold in a single day by some dealers [1][6][9]. - Many gold merchants are now promoting silver products, highlighting their cost-effectiveness, as evidenced by a doubling of silver board sales in the past month [7][9]. Investment Behavior - Investors are increasingly turning to silver due to its lower entry cost and higher potential returns compared to gold, with some reporting profits of over 20,000 yuan within a week of investing in silver [6][10]. - The market is seeing a mix of industrial demand and speculative investment, which may amplify price volatility, especially as silver prices continue to rise [11][13]. Future Outlook - Analysts suggest that while silver has strong upside potential due to industrial demand and economic recovery, its price volatility and associated risks are higher than those of gold [11][13]. - The silver market is expected to benefit from increased industrial demand, particularly in the context of green energy transitions, which could further support price increases [11].

Core Viewpoint - Silver prices have surged significantly this year, with a current spot price reaching $49.675 per ounce, just shy of the historical high of $49.84 per ounce set in 2011, reflecting a year-to-date increase of over 70%, outperforming gold [1][2]. Group 1: Market Performance - Silver has experienced a five-month consecutive increase in monthly prices, with a notable rise of over 20% in just over a month, surpassing $49 per ounce as of October 8 [2]. - The Shanghai Futures Exchange's main silver contract price reached 11,169 yuan per kilogram, with an intraday high of 11,309 yuan per kilogram [2]. - The global silver ETF holdings have seen a significant increase, with the largest ETF, SLV, holding 15,415.53 tons, up by 19.76 tons from the previous day [4][6]. Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The rise in silver prices is attributed to a combination of factors, including a persistent global supply shortage and increased industrial demand, particularly from the solar energy sector [2][3]. - The World Silver Association projects a 2% increase in total silver supply and a 1% decrease in total demand by 2025, indicating a narrowing supply gap to 117.6 million ounces [2][6]. Group 3: Investment Trends - Institutional investors are increasingly entering the silver market through various channels, including ETFs and futures contracts, with speculative net long positions in COMEX silver futures reaching historical peak levels [3][4]. - Retail investors are also showing heightened interest in silver, with sales of silver bars and coins increasing by over 40% year-on-year [4][6]. Group 4: Future Outlook - Analysts have raised silver price forecasts, with Citibank setting a target price of $55 per ounce in the next three months, driven by strong demand from the solar energy and electric vehicle sectors [7]. - The ongoing monetary easing and geopolitical uncertainties are expected to continue supporting silver prices, although there are concerns about potential profit-taking by speculative investors [8].