我们认为明年这一点依然非常重要。考虑到年末的销售费率新规可能在明年落地，明年负债端的资金流 向大概率会从银行表外重新回流至表内。过去几年更多是银行表内资金出表的阶段，在此过程中，市场 利率的比价有效性可能会有所减弱。因此我们能看到，明明阶段性资产利率下行速度非常快，但相较于 贷款，其性价比仍相对偏弱，而银行似乎有更强的追加配置贷款的诉求。 这背后核心是银行负债端的变化。过去，银行理财、公募基金等广义基金产品的发展，使得比价效应在 定价过程中并未充分发挥作用。但这一特征在明年可能会出现变化：去年大量出表负债的定价利差被压 至极低水平，且这几年广义基金规模逐步筑顶后，明年部分广义基金资金可能重新回流银行表内。在这 一趋势下，银行各类资产的比价重要性将日益凸显，因此明年我们可重点跟踪银行负债端变化及对各类 资产的性价比倾向。 我们来聊聊今年政策的整体变化。感受特别明显的是，今年政策利率的锚发生了一些切换，包括货币政 策投放工具的多元化。今年央行对于整个货币政策的降准降息，似乎也不如大家在年初预期的那么宽 松，因此明年在货币政策这一块，可能也会有比较多的预期差交易机会。 我们来具体聊聊货币政策的部分。央行在今年的三季 ...

Economic Overview - The internal momentum of the US economy is weakening, with the Atlanta Fed's GDPNOW model predicting a 0.4 percentage point decline in Q2 real GDP growth to 3.4% [2] - Personal consumption expenditure (PCE) growth has decreased by 0.6 percentage points to 1.9%, primarily due to a slowdown in the services sector [2] - Private investment growth (excluding inventory) has dropped by 0.8 percentage points to 0.4%, with significant contractions in real estate (-4.4%) and construction (-3.4%) [2] - The job market remains stable, with weekly initial jobless claims falling by 0.3 thousand to 245 thousand, aligning with seasonal levels [2] - The worsening situation in the Middle East is increasing inflationary pressures, as indicated by the Truflation daily inflation index rising by 8 basis points to 2.14% [2] Fiscal and Monetary Policy - Fiscal policy remains expansionary, with a weekly fiscal surplus of $18.5 billion, which is weaker than seasonal levels but stronger than historical averages [3] - The Federal Reserve maintained a wait-and-see stance during the June meeting, with the dot plot indicating that 7 out of 18 members do not expect rate cuts this year [3] Market Performance - Overseas markets showed muted performance last week, with the US dollar slightly rebounding and US Treasury yields fluctuating [4] - The US stock market was nearly flat, up 0.1%, with expectations that the most significant tariff impacts have passed, potentially leading to a renewed upward trend driven by corporate earnings resilience [4] - However, high valuations and increased tariffs may limit upward potential [4] - The strategy suggests maintaining a neutral position on US stocks with a balanced allocation [4] Chinese Economic Conditions - Domestic demand shows mixed signals, with strong automotive consumption but a slowdown in real estate transactions [6] - In June, average daily retail sales of passenger cars reached 48,000 units, a 17% year-on-year increase [7] - Real estate sales are declining, with new home transaction volumes in 30 major cities dropping by 8.6% year-on-year [7] - The land market is also cooling, with land supply and transaction volumes decreasing [7] External Demand and Trade - High-frequency data indicates a potential slowdown in China's export growth in June, with port cargo and container throughput growth rates declining [8] - Exports to the US may have seen some recovery, while exports to non-US regions are expected to decline from previous highs [8] Fiscal Performance - In May, fiscal revenue growth slowed, with public budget revenue increasing by only 0.1% year-on-year [9] - Tax revenue growth decreased to 0.6%, while non-tax revenue turned negative for the first time in 2024 [9] - Government spending growth was also slower, with a 2.6% increase year-on-year [9] Market Strategy - The bond market is showing strength, with short-term rates performing well due to a stable funding environment [10] - The A-share market experienced a slight decline, with uncertainties in corporate earnings and the need for further policy support for real estate and consumption [12] - The Hong Kong stock market is facing risks of correction, with high valuations and unstable fundamentals [12]