（原标题：38万亿险资调仓：固收打底但增配放缓 股票占比创近年新高） 在负债端保费规模稳步增长的支撑下，险资资产配置逐渐从"固收独大"到"固收打底、权益增强、另类补位"的结构优化。 2026年2月，国家金融监督管理总局发布保险业2025年四季度资金运用情况及相关数据。截至2025年四季度末，我国保险资金运用余额站上38万亿 元关口，较当年初增长15.7%，全年增速为2021年以来最高水平。 其中，人身险公司仍为绝对主力，2025年末其资金运用余额达34.66万亿元，较当年初增长15.73%，占行业总规模约90.1%；财产险公司资金运用 余额2.42万亿元，较当年初增长8.78%，占比约6.27%。二者共同推动险资运用余额实现连续三年双位数增长。 从具体资产配置看，固收方面，债券占比小幅提升但增配节奏放缓，银行存款和非标占比维持低位；权益方面，股票投资在保险资金运用余额中 的占比创近四年新高，基金和长股投占比较当年初小幅提升/持平。 （图片来源：国家金融监督管理总局官网） 长久期债券仍是险资"基本盘"，但增配节奏放缓 从数据看，长久期债券始终是保险公司重要的收益"压舱石"，占比继续提升，但增配节奏放缓。 截至 ...

| | | | 年以: 167」, 70 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 项目 | 截至当期 | | | 机构类别/指标 | | 账面余额 | 足尼 | | 保险公司 | 资金运用余额 | 384, 799 | 100. 00% 100. 00% | | 其中:财产险公司 | 资金运用余额 | 24,156 | | | | 其中:银行存款 | 3. 888 | 16. 09% | | | 债券 | 9,813 | 40. 63% | | | 股票 | 2, 268 | 9. 39% | | | 证券投资基金 | 1,874 | 7.76% | | | 长期股权投资 | 1, 396 | 5.78% | | 人身险公司 | 资金运用余额 | 346.645 | 100. 00% | | | 其中:银行存款 | 26, 474 | 7.64% | | | 债券 | 177, 183 | 51. 11% | | | 股票 | 35, 077 | 10. 12% | | | 证券投资基金 | 17,813 | 5.14% | | | 长期股权投资 | 26, 943 | 7.77% | ...

Group 1 - The overall change in monetary policy this year includes a shift in the anchor of policy interest rates and diversification of monetary policy tools, with less aggressive easing than initially expected for next year [1] - The central bank's focus on maintaining reasonable interest rate comparisons is crucial, especially as market interest rates may enter a "no man's land" in 2024, raising questions about the pricing logic of long-duration bonds [1][2] - The anticipated return of funds from off-balance sheet to on-balance sheet for banks is expected to enhance the importance of asset pricing comparisons in the coming year [2] Group 2 - The central bank's actions, including the cessation of bond sales and the initiation of bond purchases, have led to significant mid-term liquidity injections through various tools, indicating a more diverse set of liquidity provision methods for next year [2][3] - Market focus is expected to shift towards the duration and structure of bond purchases by the central bank, as well as the operational details of various monetary policy tools [3] - A stable liquidity environment is anticipated for next year, with expectations of one or two interest rate cuts or reserve requirement ratio reductions, primarily aligned with major policy meetings [3] Group 3 - Broad credit is expected to expand moderately, driven by a backlog of projects ready for next year, with government remaining the primary driver of leverage, while household and corporate leverage intentions are relatively weak [4] - The ten-year government bond ETF (511260) is highlighted as a valuable investment, aligning with banks' needs to return off-balance sheet assets and providing opportunities for capturing returns in a low-interest-rate environment [4]

Economic Overview - The internal momentum of the US economy is weakening, with the Atlanta Fed's GDPNOW model predicting a 0.4 percentage point decline in Q2 real GDP growth to 3.4% [2] - Personal consumption expenditure (PCE) growth has decreased by 0.6 percentage points to 1.9%, primarily due to a slowdown in the services sector [2] - Private investment growth (excluding inventory) has dropped by 0.8 percentage points to 0.4%, with significant contractions in real estate (-4.4%) and construction (-3.4%) [2] - The job market remains stable, with weekly initial jobless claims falling by 0.3 thousand to 245 thousand, aligning with seasonal levels [2] - The worsening situation in the Middle East is increasing inflationary pressures, as indicated by the Truflation daily inflation index rising by 8 basis points to 2.14% [2] Fiscal and Monetary Policy - Fiscal policy remains expansionary, with a weekly fiscal surplus of $18.5 billion, which is weaker than seasonal levels but stronger than historical averages [3] - The Federal Reserve maintained a wait-and-see stance during the June meeting, with the dot plot indicating that 7 out of 18 members do not expect rate cuts this year [3] Market Performance - Overseas markets showed muted performance last week, with the US dollar slightly rebounding and US Treasury yields fluctuating [4] - The US stock market was nearly flat, up 0.1%, with expectations that the most significant tariff impacts have passed, potentially leading to a renewed upward trend driven by corporate earnings resilience [4] - However, high valuations and increased tariffs may limit upward potential [4] - The strategy suggests maintaining a neutral position on US stocks with a balanced allocation [4] Chinese Economic Conditions - Domestic demand shows mixed signals, with strong automotive consumption but a slowdown in real estate transactions [6] - In June, average daily retail sales of passenger cars reached 48,000 units, a 17% year-on-year increase [7] - Real estate sales are declining, with new home transaction volumes in 30 major cities dropping by 8.6% year-on-year [7] - The land market is also cooling, with land supply and transaction volumes decreasing [7] External Demand and Trade - High-frequency data indicates a potential slowdown in China's export growth in June, with port cargo and container throughput growth rates declining [8] - Exports to the US may have seen some recovery, while exports to non-US regions are expected to decline from previous highs [8] Fiscal Performance - In May, fiscal revenue growth slowed, with public budget revenue increasing by only 0.1% year-on-year [9] - Tax revenue growth decreased to 0.6%, while non-tax revenue turned negative for the first time in 2024 [9] - Government spending growth was also slower, with a 2.6% increase year-on-year [9] Market Strategy - The bond market is showing strength, with short-term rates performing well due to a stable funding environment [10] - The A-share market experienced a slight decline, with uncertainties in corporate earnings and the need for further policy support for real estate and consumption [12] - The Hong Kong stock market is facing risks of correction, with high valuations and unstable fundamentals [12]