医药生物 2025 年 06月 09 日 从供需看,中国创新药能从海外分成多少钱? 投资要点: 行情回顾:本周(2025年6月3日-2025年6月6日)中信医药指数 A 上涨 1.2%,跑赢沪深 300指数 0.3 pct,在中信一级行业分类中排名第 16 位;2025年初至今中信医药生物板块指数上涨 8.3%,跑赢沪深 300 指数 9.9pct,在中信行业分类中排名第5位。本周涨幅前五的个股为:易明医药 (+33.09%)、万邦德(+32.59%)、昂利康(+30.28%)、新诺威(+21.36%)、 海辰药业(+20.93%)。 周专题:跨国药企专利悬崖释放超 2400 亿美元市场空间,中国凭借技 A 术平台与研发效率优势成为全球创新药供给的核心力量。截至 2037年,全 球市场 27款 2024年销售额超 40亿美元的重磅药物面临专利失效,MNC 均有迫切寻找重磅创新药的需求。我们认为目前已经进入下一个创新药周 期的投入阶段,中国创新药在细胞疗法、ADC、双抗等技术领域在研管线 数量全球第一,在 716个赛道研发进度第一,有望依托 License-out 模式实 现技术价值全球化兑现,加速填补 MNC ...

全球首创心肌肌球蛋白抑制剂玛伐凯泰，是全球首个针对HCM核心病理生理机制的创新药物。近年来，百时美施贵宝（BMS）通过不断深入玛伐凯泰在 全球和中国的研发，持续验证疗效，中国研究者也深度参与其中。例如，玛伐凯泰用于中国患者的关键III期临床研究——EXPLORER-CN，与多项全球研 究结果共同推动了玛伐凯泰在中国获批。与此同时，BMS还与中国本土科研力量合作，共同推动全球创新更好地"落地中国"。 *仅供医学专业人士阅读参考 肥厚型心肌病（HCM）是临床上最常见的单基因遗传性心脏病，主要表现为心肌非对称性肥厚[1]。根据是否存在左心室流出道梗阻，HCM又分为梗阻性 与非梗阻性两类，梗阻性HCM患者生存率更低。 呼吸困难、乏力、胸痛、甚至晕厥，几乎是所有梗阻性HCM患者所经历的。疾病不仅限制了他们的活动能力，还带来长期的精神压力——许多患者不得 不告别工作、运动和旅行，甚至连日常生活都被迫"放慢节奏"。 据估算，HCM的全球患病率为0.2%至0.5%，中国约有200万HCM患者[2]。由于公众认知不足、基层诊断能力有限，有大量患者未被确诊或未能获得规范 治疗。多年来，梗阻性HCM患者亟需一种能够针对疾病根源的治 ...

Core Insights - The collaboration between Nvidia and Eli Lilly aims to establish the world's first dedicated "AI super factory" for the pharmaceutical industry, leveraging advanced computing power to revolutionize drug development throughout its lifecycle [1][4][30] Group 1: Nvidia's Technological Advancements - Nvidia has announced the creation of the DGX SuperPOD supercomputer, built with 1000 B300 GPUs, which enhances computational density by three times compared to traditional supercomputers, significantly reducing model training time from weeks to hours [4] - This supercomputer will be operated by Eli Lilly, providing the necessary computational power for their AI factory to develop, train, and deploy AI models for drug discovery [4][30] Group 2: Eli Lilly's Financial Performance - Eli Lilly reported a third-quarter revenue of $17.6 billion for 2025, a 54% increase year-over-year, with a net profit of $5.58 billion, marking a staggering 475.34% growth [12] - The company’s total revenue for the first nine months of 2025 reached $45.89 billion, a 46% increase compared to the previous year, prompting an upward revision of its full-year revenue forecast to between $63 billion and $63.5 billion [1][12] Group 3: AI Integration in Drug Development - Eli Lilly's AI platform, TuneLab, which includes 18 AI models, will be deployed in the AI factory, enhancing drug discovery efficiency [5] - The AI factory is expected to reduce the early drug discovery cycle by 40% and lower preclinical development costs by 30%, while also enabling the design of novel molecular structures [20][30] Group 4: Industry Context and Competitive Landscape - The collaboration reflects a broader trend in the pharmaceutical industry, where companies are increasingly investing in AI, with many raising their AI R&D budget to over 20% of total R&D expenses [27] - The partnership signifies a shift from traditional drug development methods to a data-driven, intelligent assembly line approach, which may require substantial capital investment [30] Group 5: Long-term Strategic Considerations - Eli Lilly's focus on AI drug development is a strategic response to short-term growth pressures and long-term survival challenges, particularly in light of the impending patent cliff for its key products [13][14] - The company is racing against time to develop new blockbuster drugs before the expiration of key patents, which could significantly impact its revenue base [16][17]

Core Viewpoint - After a decade of growth, multinational pharmaceutical companies are facing a changing environment in China, entering a phase of cyclical adjustment, as evidenced by Bristol-Myers Squibb's (BMS) decision to sell 60% of its stake in its joint venture in China, Shanghai Bristol-Myers Squibb Pharmaceutical (SASS) [1][3][4] Group 1: Company Actions - BMS has signed an agreement to sell its 60% stake in SASS to Hillhouse Capital, with the transaction expected to be completed by early 2026 [2][3] - The divestiture reflects BMS's evolving network strategy, allowing the company to focus resources on core areas with the highest growth potential [2][5] - BMS's decision to exit the joint venture indicates a shift towards innovation and a focus on drug development rather than reliance on established products [4][13] Group 2: Market Context - The Chinese pharmaceutical market has undergone significant changes, with government policies increasingly favoring innovative drugs, making it difficult for multinational companies to rely on high-priced original drugs [8][9] - The implementation of centralized procurement policies since 2018 has severely compressed profit margins for off-patent original drugs, with price reductions typically ranging from 50% to 85% for selected drugs [5][9] - BMS's revenue from mature products has declined by 20%, primarily due to intensified competition from generics and changes in U.S. healthcare policies [6][7] Group 3: Strategic Implications - Analysts suggest that multinational pharmaceutical companies must adapt to the changing landscape by focusing on innovative drug development, local partnerships, and financial health [3][13] - The transition from a broad coverage strategy to a more focused approach emphasizes the importance of local ecosystems and collaboration with domestic firms [3][10] - Future strategies may include prioritizing high-barrier and differentiated innovative drugs, deepening local cooperation, and restructuring business models to mitigate risks associated with mature products [13][12]

Core Insights - The global top-selling drugs for the first half of 2025 have been released, with Novo Nordisk's semaglutide leading the sales at 166.83 billion USD, followed by Merck's pembrolizumab and Eli Lilly's tirzepatide [1][3][4] Group 1: Top-Selling Drugs - Semaglutide from Novo Nordisk achieved sales of 166.83 billion USD, maintaining its position as the "king of drugs" [1][3] - Pembrolizumab from Merck recorded sales of 151.61 billion USD, ranking second [3] - Tirzepatide from Eli Lilly reached sales of 147.34 billion USD, securing the third position [3] Group 2: Sales Growth and Market Dynamics - Semaglutide's sales growth is driven by its three products: Ozempic (95.46 billion USD), Rybelsus (16.79 billion USD), and Wegovy (54.58 billion USD), with Wegovy showing a remarkable growth of 78% [5][6] - Tirzepatide has rapidly gained market share, with Mounjaro's sales skyrocketing from 4.83 billion USD in 2022 to an expected 115.4 billion USD in 2024 [7] - The competition between semaglutide and tirzepatide is intensifying, with both drugs exceeding 140 billion USD in sales for the first half of 2025 [7] Group 3: Market Challenges - The entry of biosimilars has impacted the sales of established drugs, with Janssen's ustekinumab dropping out of the top 10 due to a significant decline in sales [8] - Ustekinumab's sales fell by 38.6% in the first half of 2025, reaching only 32.78 billion USD [8] - Despite challenges, Johnson & Johnson's daratumumab saw a 21.7% increase in sales, reaching 67.76 billion USD, indicating strong demand in the multiple myeloma market [9][10]

Core Insights - The global top-selling drugs for the first half of 2025 have been released, with Novo Nordisk's semaglutide leading the sales at 166.83 billion USD, followed by Merck's pembrolizumab and Eli Lilly's tirzepatide [1][3][4] Sales Performance - Semaglutide achieved sales of 166.83 billion USD, maintaining its position as the top-selling drug [1][3] - Pembrolizumab (K drug) recorded sales of 151.61 billion USD, while tirzepatide reached 147.34 billion USD [3] - Other notable drugs include apixaban at 111.71 billion USD and dupilumab at 80.15 billion USD [3] Market Dynamics - The competition for the title of "King of Drugs" is intensifying, with new entrants like tirzepatide rapidly gaining market share [1][5] - Semaglutide's sales are bolstered by its three product variants, with the weight loss version, Wegovy, showing a remarkable growth of 78% [5][6] - Tirzepatide has been recognized for its rapid market uptake, with sales skyrocketing from 4.83 billion USD in 2022 to an expected 115.4 billion USD in 2024 [7] Product Innovations - Wegovy has recently gained approval for treating metabolic-associated fatty liver disease, which is expected to further enhance its sales [6] - Tirzepatide is the first and only dual-target GLP-1 receptor agonist approved for type 2 diabetes, positioning it as a strong competitor to semaglutide [7] Market Challenges - The entry of biosimilars has impacted the sales of established drugs, with Johnson & Johnson's ustekinumab dropping out of the top 10 due to a significant sales decline [8] - Ustekinumab's sales fell by 38.6% in the first half of 2025, reflecting the challenges faced by original drugs as patents expire [8] Future Outlook - Daratumumab from Johnson & Johnson has shown a 21.7% increase in sales, indicating strong market potential in the multiple myeloma segment [9][10] - The overall trend suggests a shift in market leadership as newer drugs gain traction and established drugs face competitive pressures [1][5][8]

Group 1: Impact of Tariffs and Sales Distribution - The company's direct exports to the U.S. are low, so the impact of U.S. tariffs on raw material exports is minimal [1] - Domestic sales account for nearly 20% of total revenue; high-end markets contribute approximately 60% to overseas sales, while emerging markets account for around 20% [1] Group 2: Future Product Potential and Profit Margins - High-potential new products include Rivaroxaban, Apixaban, Empagliflozin, Canagliflozin, Vildagliptin, Febuxostat, and Azilsartan [2] - An improvement in gross margin is expected in the upcoming quarters compared to Q1 [2] Group 3: Depreciation and Raw Material Sales - Two new workshops in the second phase of the second plant will start depreciation after process validation in 2026, with an estimated annual depreciation of around 10 million [2] - Raw materials typically account for about 10% of the sales revenue from generic drug formulations [2] Group 4: Supplier Selection and Competitive Advantage - Generic drug companies usually start looking for qualified raw material suppliers 6-7 years before patent expiration; the company often initiates projects 10 years in advance [2] - The company has established a strong reputation and competitive edge through rigorous quality management and successful audits in high-end markets [2] Group 5: Pricing Trends and Investment - More than half of mature product prices have stabilized, with some still declining but at a reduced rate; raw material capacity is being cleared, preventing long-term price drops [3] - The investment in Boya Biotech focuses on developing high-difficulty specialty formulations, which have high industry entry barriers [3]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the pharmaceutical industry [7] Core Insights - The report highlights that the Chinese innovative drug sector is poised to capitalize on the patent cliff faced by multinational corporations (MNCs), with a potential market space exceeding $240 billion due to the expiration of patents on 31 major drugs by 2037 [5][18] - It emphasizes that China has the largest number of innovative drug pipelines globally, particularly in cell therapy, ADCs, and bispecific antibodies, which positions it as a key player in the global market [5][32] - The report suggests that the ongoing trend of licensing out Chinese innovations to MNCs could lead to significant profit opportunities, estimating a net profit of approximately $8.2 billion from authorized projects between 2020 and 2025, translating to a potential market capitalization increase of $81.7 billion [5][46][47] Summary by Sections Market Review - The report notes that the CITIC Pharmaceutical Index rose by 1.2% during the week of June 3-6, 2025, outperforming the CSI 300 Index by 0.3 percentage points [4][48] - The pharmaceutical sector has shown a year-to-date increase of 8.3%, surpassing the CSI 300 Index by 9.9 percentage points [4][48] MNC Patent Cliff - The report identifies that 27 drugs with projected sales exceeding $4 billion in 2024 will face patent expiration by 2037, leading to a potential loss of approximately $244.3 billion for MNCs [18][19] - Specific drugs mentioned include Merck's Keytruda and Pfizer's Eliquis, which are expected to face significant sales declines post-patent expiration [19][20] Supply and Demand Dynamics - China leads globally in the number of innovative drug pipelines, particularly in cell therapy and ADCs, with 58% of these drugs currently in clinical phase I trials [32][33] - The report indicates that Chinese companies are involved in 716 research tracks, ranking first in development progress [32][33] Transaction Trends - The report highlights a significant increase in global pharmaceutical transactions, with the number of deals rising from 358 in 2015 to 743 in 2024, and total transaction value increasing from $56.9 billion to $187.4 billion [36][39] - Chinese companies accounted for 30% of global transaction value in 2024, with a total of $57.1 billion in deals [39][40] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies with strong overseas clinical progress and those with potential for significant licensing deals, including Innovent Biologics, Eddingpharm, and others [5][6] - It also recommends monitoring companies that have received approval for commercialization, such as BeiGene and Kingsoft Biopharma [5][6]

Core Viewpoint - The collaboration between 3SBio and Pfizer for the dual antibody PD-1/VEGF product SSGJ-707 marks a significant milestone in the biopharmaceutical industry, with a record-breaking upfront payment of $1.25 billion and potential total payments exceeding $6 billion, highlighting the growing interest and investment in innovative cancer therapies [1][3][4]. Group 1: Financial Aspects - The deal includes an upfront payment of $1.25 billion, making it the highest upfront payment for a domestic transaction in China to date [1]. - The total potential payments could reach $4.8 billion in milestone payments, bringing the total deal value to over $6 billion [1]. - 3SBio's stock price has surged over 200% since February, with a market capitalization increase of approximately HKD 30 billion [3]. Group 2: Product Development and Market Potential - SSGJ-707 has shown significant anti-tumor activity and safety in early clinical trials, positioning it as a potential best-in-class therapy [3][6]. - The product is currently undergoing four Phase II clinical studies targeting various cancers, with projected peak sales of approximately RMB 4 billion domestically and $4.5 billion in overseas markets [3][4]. - The product has received breakthrough therapy designation for treating PD-L1 positive non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) [4]. Group 3: Strategic Implications for Pfizer - Pfizer is actively seeking new products to bolster its portfolio, especially after a significant revenue drop in 2023 [5]. - The collaboration with 3SBio allows Pfizer to enhance its offerings in the PD-1/VEGF space, where it has previously engaged in clinical collaborations [6]. - The urgency for Pfizer to acquire new blockbuster products is underscored by its recent challenges in the GLP-1 drug development space [5].

Group 1 - The core point of the article is that President Trump announced plans to sign an executive order aimed at reducing prescription drug prices in the U.S. by 30% to 80%, aligning U.S. drug prices with those of the lowest-priced countries globally [1][3][10] - The announcement led to a decline in stock prices for major pharmaceutical companies, particularly affecting Chinese innovative drug firms like BeiGene and others listed in Hong Kong and the U.S. [1][13] - Despite the ambitious price reduction targets, Trump did not provide specific details on how these goals would be achieved, leading to uncertainty in the market [1][10] Group 2 - The high drug prices in the U.S. are attributed to a complex interplay of commercial insurance and the pharmaceutical industry's profit motives, with the government lacking effective tools to lower prices [2][8] - The U.S. healthcare expenditure reached $4.46 trillion in 2022, with prescription drugs accounting for 13% of this total, highlighting the significant role of government spending in the pharmaceutical market [4][10] - The average price of brand-name prescription drugs in the U.S. is 2.56 times higher than in other major developed countries, indicating a substantial pricing disparity [5][8] Group 3 - The "Most Favored Nation" policy proposed by Trump aims to link U.S. drug prices to the lowest prices in other countries, which could lead to significant savings in healthcare costs [3][4] - The implementation of drug price negotiations by the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services (CMS) is limited to certain insurance channels, leaving a significant portion of the market without direct price controls [10][11] - The potential impact of Trump's executive order on the pharmaceutical industry could lead to a reevaluation of pricing strategies and profit distribution among global pharmaceutical companies [12][14] Group 4 - The reaction from the industry has been cautious, with stakeholders expressing the need for clarity on the implementation of the proposed measures and their potential effects on the market [14][15] - Some industry experts believe that if the policy is effectively implemented, it could lead to a decrease in the overall market size for pharmaceuticals in the U.S., affecting the global market potential for innovative drugs [14][15] - Chinese innovative drug companies, while currently facing stock price declines, may find long-term benefits if the U.S. market adjusts to lower drug prices, given the high costs of drug development in the U.S. compared to China's efficiency [14][15]