证券研究报告 汽车 25 年两新政策刺激行业景气度，反内卷驱动促销力度收敛，25 年 1-10 月 自主份额由去年同期 60%提至 66%，其中中低端增速最快。展望 26 年，我 们预计乘用车批发/零售销量同比+3%/-1%，总量平淡。国内方面，我们汇 总 100+个 26 年新车，预计国内车企竞争更激烈，结构上，自主高端发力大 五/六座 SUV 市场，关注小米 YU9、蔚来 ES7、极氪 8X、启境 F05、问界 M9L、零跑 D19、魏牌 DE 系列等重磅车型。出海方面，我们看好欧洲新能 源市场高增，预计 26 年欧洲新能源销量为 365 万辆（yoy+35%），驱动力 为碳排放法规及优质新车供给，此外我们看好新兴市场自主本地产能放量。 零部件：出海提速，科技突围扩展成长空间 汽零板块 26 年重点关注全球化+新赛道。出海方面，欧美市场空间大 ASP 高+欧洲电动化提速+传统国际巨头处于转型阵痛期+海外主机厂降本需求， 汽零出海迎来结构性机遇，特别关注细分赛道龙头。AI 革新汽零新成长， 汽零企业在技术同源/客户资源导入/制造等优势明显，进攻新领域驱动板块 由传统制造向"科技+高端制造"重塑，有望带来业绩 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the automotive industry, particularly emphasizing the importance of smart vehicles as a key investment theme for 2026 [2]. Core Insights - The Guangzhou Auto Show highlights the democratization of intelligent driving and the deep integration of smart cockpits with large models, indicating that intelligence is no longer an added value but a necessity for market entry [2]. - The report suggests focusing on technology-leading companies such as Tesla and XPeng, as well as companies with strong performance and low valuations like Kobot, Xingyu, and Jifeng [2]. - The report also notes the impact of state-owned enterprise reforms, recommending continued attention to SAIC and Dongfeng [2]. Industry Update - According to the China Passenger Car Association, the average daily retail sales of passenger cars in the first week of November were 46,000 units, a year-on-year decrease of 19% [2]. - The traditional and new energy raw material price indices have increased recently, with traditional car raw material prices rising by 0.7% week-on-week and 1.8% month-on-month [2]. - The total transaction value of the automotive industry this week was 517.096 billion yuan, a week-on-week decrease of 13.15% [2]. Market Situation - The automotive industry index closed at 7684.80 points, down 2.11% for the week, which is a greater decline than the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index [2]. - A total of 112 stocks in the industry rose, while 156 fell, with the largest gainers being Langbo Technology, Yingli Automobile, and Xinpeng Co., which rose by 19.6%, 17.6%, and 14.4% respectively [2]. - Key events include the upcoming Guangzhou Auto Show, which will showcase the acceleration of electrification, intelligence, and product diversification in the automotive market [3]. Investment Analysis - The report recommends focusing on domestic leading manufacturers such as NIO, Xiaomi, XPeng, and Li Auto, as well as companies that exemplify the trend of intelligence, such as Jianghuai Automobile and Seres [2]. - It also highlights the importance of state-owned enterprise integration, suggesting attention to SAIC Group, Dongfeng Group, and Changan Automobile [2]. - Companies with strong performance growth and capabilities in robotics or overseas expansion, such as Xingyu, Fuyao Glass, and New Spring, are also recommended [2].

Core Insights - The 2025 Guangzhou Auto Show will feature 93 global debut vehicles, with 629 of the total 1,085 vehicles being new energy models, representing nearly 60% of the exhibition [1] - The penetration rate of new energy vehicles reached 56.98% in October, with a year-to-date rate of 52.71%, indicating a significant shift towards electrification in the automotive market [1] - New energy vehicles have transitioned from being a supporting role to becoming the main focus at the auto show, highlighting the industry's transformation [1] Industry Trends - The auto market is experiencing a "Matthew Effect," leading to intensified competition and brand differentiation, with technology iteration and price restructuring occurring simultaneously [4] - New energy vehicles are now the primary attraction at major auto shows, reflecting a shift in consumer interest and market dynamics [5] New Vehicle Highlights - XPeng Motors will unveil its first range-extended vehicle, the XPeng X9 Super Range Extender, at the auto show, which boasts a comprehensive range of 1,602 km and a pure electric range of 452 km [6][8] - The new XPeng X9 aims to capture a larger market share in the popular 300,000 RMB hybrid MPV segment, leveraging its established presence in the pure electric MPV market [8] - The new AITO M9 and other models from traditional manufacturers are also set to showcase their latest offerings, emphasizing the competitive landscape in the high-end SUV market [25] Competitive Landscape - Li Auto's new model, the AITO M8, and other competitors like Tesla's Model 3 are dominating the 250,000-300,000 RMB pure electric sedan market, creating challenges for new entrants like the AITO S9 [12] - Leap Motor plans to introduce three new models, including the Leap Lafa 5 and D19, targeting different market segments with a diverse product lineup [13][16] - The high-end electric vehicle segment is becoming increasingly competitive, with traditional automakers focusing on technology upgrades and market segmentation to capture consumer interest [25][28] Strategic Moves - Lido's new L80 model aims to provide a more affordable five-seat option, enhancing its market appeal by optimizing space and reducing entry costs [18][24] - Lantu will showcase three flagship models at the auto show, emphasizing its self-developed hybrid technology and targeting various consumer needs [26][29] - Zeekr's upcoming model, the Zeekr 8X, is positioned as a "mini flagship," aiming to leverage the success of its larger counterpart, the Zeekr 9X, in the competitive SUV market [30][35] Conclusion - The Guangzhou Auto Show is set to highlight the ongoing transformation in the automotive industry, particularly in the new energy vehicle sector, with a focus on technology advancements and market segmentation [41] - The competition in the high-end SUV market is intensifying, as brands strive to establish their presence and differentiate their offerings in a crowded marketplace [41]

Group 1: Pig Industry - The pig industry is undergoing a period of regulatory control, with measures aimed at reducing production capacity to stabilize prices. Short-term pressures on prices are expected due to increased market supply, but the overall regulatory approach is likely to be moderate, focusing on sustainable price recovery [3][4] - The recommendation is to focus on leading companies such as Muyuan Foods and Wens Foodstuffs, while also considering opportunities in lower-cost producers like Dekang Agriculture and Shennong Group [3] Group 2: Poultry Industry - The poultry sector is expected to see improvements in its fundamentals, with significant updates in breeding stock. In September 2025, 136,800 sets of grandparent stock were updated, contributing to a total of 803,300 sets for the year [4] - The recommendation includes companies like San Nong Development and Lihua Stock, as the market dynamics are anticipated to shift positively [4] Group 3: Animal Health - The competitive landscape in the animal health sector is expected to improve, supported by government initiatives to optimize the veterinary drug industry and encourage innovation among leading firms [5] - The clinical trials for African swine fever vaccines are progressing, with companies like BioFeng and Zhongmu Bio receiving clinical approval, which could enhance market prospects for these vaccines [5] Group 4: Planting Industry - The pig-to-grain price ratio is continuing to decline, which may benefit companies that have invested early in genetically modified seed development. Companies like Suqian Agricultural Development and Longping High-Tech are recommended [6] Group 5: Feed Industry - The feed industry is experiencing price fluctuations, but there is an expectation of increased market concentration. Hai Da Group is recommended, with a focus on He Feng Stock as a potential opportunity [7] Group 6: Pet Industry - The pet economy is thriving, with domestic brands gaining significant market share. The profitability of the industry is improving, and companies like Guibao Pet and Zhongchong Stock are recommended for investment [8] Group 7: Automotive Industry - In September 2025, wholesale automotive sales increased by 14.9% year-on-year, with significant growth in new energy vehicles, which accounted for 46.1% of total new car sales [9][10] - The launch of new models like the Leap D19 and Wei Brand's Gaoshan 7 is expected to enhance market competitiveness, with the latter achieving a sales price of 285,800 yuan [10][11] - The automotive sector is recommended for investment, particularly in companies that are positioned for high-end and intelligent vehicle development, such as Li Auto and BYD [12] Group 8: Beauty and Healthcare - Meili Tianyuan's acquisition of Siyuanli for 1.25 billion yuan is set to strengthen its position in the high-end beauty market, with the deal structured as 67% cash and 33% stock [14][15] - The acquisition is expected to enhance revenue and profit scales, with projected revenues of 3 billion yuan in 2025, growing to 5.2 billion yuan by 2027 [16]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the automotive industry [4][6]. Core Insights - The automotive industry is expected to see stable growth in consumer demand due to supportive policies and increasing sales of new energy vehicles (NEVs) [4][16]. - In September 2025, NEVs accounted for approximately 49.7% of the total market share, indicating a significant shift towards electric vehicles [2][34]. - The report highlights key companies to watch, including SAIC Motor, XPeng Motors, Xiaomi Group, and Leap Motor in the vehicle segment, and focuses on electric intelligence and the AIDC liquid cooling supply chain in the parts segment [4][17]. Summary by Sections Market Review - The automotive sector experienced a decline of 2.53% from October 13 to October 17, 2025, ranking 27th among all primary industries [1][18]. - The motorcycle and other segments saw the highest increase of 0.58%, while automotive parts experienced the largest decline of 4.04% during the same period [1][21]. Industry Data Tracking - In September 2025, total vehicle sales reached approximately 3.226 million units, with a month-on-month increase of 12.9% and a year-on-year increase of 14.9% [2][25]. - Retail sales of passenger vehicles for the first 12 days of October 2025 were about 686,000 units, showing a year-on-year decrease of 8% but a month-on-month increase of 12% [2][36]. - The average price of battery-grade lithium carbonate was approximately 73,350 CNY per ton as of October 17, 2025, with no change from the previous week [2][41]. Industry Dynamics - Key developments include Seres Group's progress in its IPO process and Tesla's expansion plans for its Shanghai Gigafactory [3][45]. - Leap Motor launched its D19 model, which offers a pure electric range of 500 kilometers, expected to be available in Q1 2026 [3][45]. Company Announcements - Bojun Technology anticipates a net profit of approximately 552 million to 662 million CNY for the first three quarters of 2025, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 50% to 80% [3][47]. - Mingxin Xuteng received a notification from a major NEV client to supply interior materials, with a total sales amount projected at approximately 650 million CNY [3][47].

Group 1: NIO and GIC Lawsuit - Singapore's Government Investment Corporation (GIC) has filed a lawsuit against NIO, accusing the company of inflating revenue and profits through a partnership with Wuhan Weinan Battery Asset Co., misleading investors and causing financial losses to GIC [1] - NIO responded that the lawsuit is based on unfounded allegations from a short-seller report by Grizzly Research in June 2022, which the company claims contains numerous errors and misleading conclusions [1] - Following the short-seller report, major financial institutions like Deutsche Bank, Morgan Stanley, and JP Morgan released reports that did not support Grizzly's conclusions, indicating a misunderstanding of NIO's Battery as a Service (BaaS) model [1] Group 2: Fuyao Glass Leadership Change - Fuyao Glass announced that its chairman, Cao Dewang, has resigned to optimize the company's governance structure and pursue retirement, although he will remain a board member and hold other positions [2][3] - Cao Dewang expressed that stepping down would benefit Fuyao by allowing a new generation to take over [3] - The company has elected Cao Hui as the new chairman, and Cao Dewang has been appointed as the honorary chairman for life [2] Group 3: Tesla Shareholder Returns - Tesla reported a total shareholder return of 39,140% since its IPO, significantly outperforming the S&P 500 index and other peers [6][7] - This return indicates that an initial investment of $10,000 at the time of Tesla's IPO would now be worth approximately $3.914 million [7] - Tesla emphasized that strong corporate governance is essential for achieving sustainable long-term shareholder returns [8] Group 4: Meituan's AI Investment - Meituan's core local business CEO, Wang Puzhong, revealed that the company has invested hundreds of millions of RMB in AI technology, which is expected to benefit the restaurant industry [10][11] - Meituan has developed and open-sourced the LongCat large language model, which is noted for its speed and accuracy, and is the only model trained using domestically produced chips [11] - The company aims to integrate AI into decision-making processes in the restaurant sector through tools like "Kangaroo Advisor" [12] Group 5: Apple Watch Research Initiative - Apple announced a collaboration with Beijing Anzhen Hospital and the American Heart Association to explore the use of Apple Watch in monitoring heart failure patients with atrial fibrillation [14][17] - The study will involve over 200 discharged patients and will track their conditions for 90 days to assess the effectiveness of Apple Watch in managing heart failure [17] - Apple aims to leverage advanced machine learning capabilities in the watch for early detection of health deterioration [17] Group 6: Volcanic Engine AI Model Updates - Volcanic Engine unveiled updates to its Doubao series models, reporting a daily token usage exceeding 30 trillion, reflecting an 80% increase since May [18] - The company holds a 49.2% market share in China's public cloud large model service sector as of the first half of 2025 [18] Group 7: OPPO Find X9 Series Launch - OPPO launched its flagship Find X9 series, featuring a new design and advanced camera capabilities, including the world's first full-focus Hasselblad 8K photo function [20][21] - The series is equipped with a Dimensity 9500 flagship chip and supports various high-end features, including IP68 water and dust resistance [20] Group 8: Leap Motor D19 SUV Introduction - Leap Motor introduced its flagship D19 SUV, available in both pure electric and range-extended versions, with the pure electric variant offering a range of 720 km [21][23] - The D19 features a 115 kWh battery and supports 800V fast charging, with a 0-100 km/h acceleration time of around 3 seconds for the pure electric version [23][24]