1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - On August 14, industrial silicon fluctuated weakly. The main contract 2511 closed at 8,675 yuan/ton, with an intraday decline of 1.14%. The open interest decreased by 5,465 lots to 279,000 lots. The spot reference price of industrial silicon from Baichuan was 9,540 yuan/ton, remaining stable compared to the previous trading day. The price of the lowest deliverable 421 grade rebounded to 8,950 yuan/ton, and the spot premium narrowed to 315 yuan/ton [2]. - Polysilicon also fluctuated weakly. The main contract 2511 closed at 50,430 yuan/ton, with an intraday decline of 3.08%. The open interest decreased by 4,706 lots to 128,000 lots. The price of N-type recycled polysilicon material rose to 47,000 yuan/ton, while the price of the lowest deliverable silicon material dropped to 44,500 yuan/ton. The spot discount narrowed to 5,270 yuan/ton [2]. - The north and south of China's industrial silicon production areas continued to resume production, and the downstream crystalline silicon production increased significantly. The supply and demand showed a pattern of double - growth, and in the short term, it continued to fluctuate following the sentiment of coal and coke [2]. - Recently, industrial silicon industry associations in multiple provinces put forward a joint initiative against "involution." In the short term, relevant news may become an important driver for the industrial silicon futures market [2]. - After the polysilicon futures market showed a premium again, it attracted an increase in warehouse receipts. The market was trading on a series of news such as capacity storage. In the short term, the range pattern of polysilicon with a clear upper and lower limit was relatively obvious [2]. - Attention should be paid to the resumption progress of industrial silicon production, the impact of the association's initiative, and the policy promotion of polysilicon [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Data Monitoring Industrial Silicon - Futures settlement price: The main contract decreased from 8,775 yuan/ton on August 13 to 8,695 yuan/ton on August 14, a decrease of 80 yuan/ton. The near - month contract increased from 8,575 yuan/ton to 8,635 yuan/ton, an increase of 60 yuan/ton [4]. - Spot prices of various grades remained stable, with no change in the prices of non - oxygenated 553 silicon, oxygenated 553 silicon, and 421 silicon in different regions [4]. - The current lowest deliverable price remained at 8,950 yuan/ton, and the spot premium decreased from 375 yuan/ton to 315 yuan/ton [4]. Polysilicon - Futures settlement price: The main contract decreased from 51,290 yuan/ton on August 13 to 50,430 yuan/ton on August 14, a decrease of 860 yuan/ton. The near - month contract decreased from 51,290 yuan/ton to 49,770 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1,520 yuan/ton [4]. - Spot prices: The price of N - type polysilicon dense material increased from 44,000 yuan/ton to 46,000 yuan/ton, an increase of 2,000 yuan/ton. The price of N - type recycled polysilicon material increased from 45,500 yuan/ton to 47,000 yuan/ton, an increase of 1,500 yuan/ton. The price of N - type granular silicon material increased from 34,000 yuan/ton to 44,000 yuan/ton, an increase of 10,000 yuan/ton. The prices of P - type polysilicon dense material and P - type recycled polysilicon material remained unchanged [4]. - The current lowest deliverable price remained at 44,500 yuan/ton, and the spot discount narrowed from 6,790 yuan/ton to 5,270 yuan/ton [4]. Organic Silicon - Spot prices: The DMC price in the East China market decreased from 12,000 yuan/ton to 11,500 yuan/ton, a decrease of 500 yuan/ton. The prices of raw rubber, 107 glue decreased by 500 yuan/ton, while the price of dimethyl silicone oil increased by 1,800 yuan/ton [4]. Inventory - Industrial silicon: The daily industrial silicon warehouse receipts remained at 50,701. The weekly inventory of the Guangzhou Futures Exchange decreased by 880 tons to 251,700 tons. The weekly inventory at Huangpu Port remained at 55,000 tons, and the weekly inventory at Tianjin Port and Kunming Port remained unchanged. The industrial silicon factory inventory increased by 4,100 tons to 272,500 tons, and the total social inventory increased by 4,100 tons to 444,000 tons [4]. - Polysilicon: The daily polysilicon warehouse receipts remained at 5,150. The weekly inventory of the Guangzhou Futures Exchange increased by 13,000 tons to 108,600 tons. The weekly polysilicon factory inventory decreased by 2,000 tons to 273,400 tons, and the total social inventory decreased by 2,000 tons to 273,000 tons [4]. 3.2 Chart Analysis Industrial Silicon and Cost - end Prices Charts show prices of different grades of industrial silicon, grade spreads, regional spreads, electricity prices, silica prices, and refined coal prices [5][7][10]. Downstream Product Prices Charts present prices of DMC, organic silicon products, polysilicon, silicon wafers, solar cells, and solar modules [13][14][16]. Inventory Charts display industrial silicon futures inventory, factory inventory, weekly industry inventory, weekly inventory changes, DMC weekly inventory, and polysilicon weekly inventory [19][20][22]. Cost - profit Charts show average cost levels, average profit levels of main production areas, weekly cost - profit of industrial silicon, aluminum alloy processing industry profit, DMC cost - profit, and polysilicon cost - profit [25][27][32]. 3.3 Team Introduction - Zhan Dapeng, a master of science, is the director of non - ferrous research at Everbright Futures Research Institute, a senior researcher in precious metals, a medium - level investment analyst in gold, an excellent metal analyst of the Shanghai Futures Exchange, and the best industrial product futures analyst of Futures Daily and Securities Times. He has more than ten years of experience in commodity research, serves many leading spot enterprises, and has published dozens of professional articles in public newspapers and magazines. His team has won awards such as the 15th and 16th Best Metal Industry Futures Research Team Awards of Futures Daily and Securities Times and the title of Excellent Non - ferrous Metal Industry Team of the Shanghai Futures Exchange in 2016 [34]. - Wang Heng, a master of finance from the University of Adelaide in Australia, is a non - ferrous researcher at Everbright Futures Research Institute, mainly focusing on aluminum and silicon research [34]. - Zhu Xi, a master of science from the University of Warwick in the UK, is a non - ferrous researcher at Everbright Futures Research Institute, mainly focusing on lithium and nickel research [35].

Group 1: Research View - On August 12, industrial silicon fluctuated weakly. The main contract 2511 closed at 8,840 yuan/ton, with an intraday decline of 1.12%. The position increased by 6,917 lots to 279,000 lots. The spot reference price of industrial silicon by Baichuan was 9,540 yuan/ton, remaining stable compared to the previous trading day. The price of the lowest deliverable 421 grade rebounded to 8,950 yuan/ton, and the spot premium widened to 150 yuan/ton [2]. - Polysilicon fluctuated strongly. The main contract 2511 closed at 51,800 yuan/ton, with an intraday increase of 0.69%. The position decreased by 3,684 lots to 136,000 lots. The price of N-type recycled polysilicon materials dropped to 44,500 yuan/ton, and the price of the lowest deliverable silicon materials also dropped to 44,500 yuan/ton. The spot discount narrowed to 6,005 yuan/ton [2]. - The north and south of industrial silicon continued to resume production, and the downstream crystalline silicon production increased significantly. The supply and demand showed a double - increase pattern, and it will continue to fluctuate following the sentiment of coking coal in the short term. Recently, industrial silicon industry associations in many provinces put forward a joint initiative against involution. In the short term, relevant news may become an important driver for the industrial silicon futures market [2]. - After the polysilicon futures market showed a premium again, it attracted an increase in warehouse receipts. The market traded on a series of news such as capacity storage. In the short term, the range pattern of polysilicon with a clear upper and lower limit is relatively obvious. Attention should be paid to the resumption progress of industrial silicon production, the impact of the association's initiative, and the policy promotion of polysilicon [2]. Group 2: Daily Data Monitoring Industrial Silicon - The futures settlement price of the main contract decreased from 8,940 yuan/ton on August 11 to 8,905 yuan/ton on August 12, a decrease of 35 yuan/ton. The near - month contract decreased from 8,860 yuan/ton to 8,800 yuan/ton, a decrease of 60 yuan/ton [4]. - The spot prices of most grades of industrial silicon remained stable, except for some minor price increases in the 421 grade in certain regions. The current lowest deliverable price was 8,950 yuan/ton, and the spot premium widened from 90 yuan/ton to 150 yuan/ton [4]. - The industrial silicon warehouse receipts decreased by 102 to 50,658 (daily), and the Guangzhou Futures Exchange inventory decreased by 880 to 251,700 tons (weekly). The total social inventory of industrial silicon increased by 4,100 tons to 444,000 tons [4]. Polysilicon - The futures settlement price of the main contract decreased from 52,985 yuan/ton on August 11 to 51,800 yuan/ton on August 12, a decrease of 1,185 yuan/ton. The near - month contract decreased from 52,985 yuan/ton to 50,505 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2,480 yuan/ton [4]. - The prices of some polysilicon materials increased, while the prices of P - type polysilicon materials remained stable. The current lowest deliverable price was 44,500 yuan/ton, and the spot discount narrowed from 8,485 yuan/ton to 6,005 yuan/ton [4]. - The polysilicon warehouse receipts increased by 240 to 4,940 (daily). The Guangzhou Futures Exchange inventory increased by 13,000 tons to 108,600 tons (weekly), and the factory inventory decreased by 2,000 tons to 273,400 tons. The total social inventory of polysilicon decreased by 2,000 tons to 273,000 tons [4]. Organic Silicon - The DMC price in the East China market remained stable at 12,500 yuan/ton. The prices of raw rubber and 107 glue remained stable, while the price of dimethyl silicone oil increased by 1,500 yuan/ton to 14,500 yuan/ton [4]. Group 3: Chart Analysis Industrial Silicon and Cost - end Prices - Charts show the prices of different grades of industrial silicon, grade spreads, regional spreads, electricity prices, silica prices, and refined coal prices [5][7][10]. Downstream Product Prices - Charts display the prices of DMC, organic silicon products, polysilicon, silicon wafers, battery cells, and components [13][14][16]. Inventory - Charts present the industrial silicon futures inventory, factory inventory, weekly industry inventory, weekly inventory changes, DMC weekly inventory, and polysilicon weekly inventory [19][20][22]. Cost and Profit - Charts show the average cost and profit levels in major production areas, the weekly cost - profit of industrial silicon, the profit of the aluminum alloy processing industry, the cost - profit of DMC, and the cost - profit of polysilicon [25][27][28]. Group 4: Team Introduction - The non - ferrous metals team includes Zhan Dapeng, Wang Heng, and Zhu Xi. Zhan Dapeng is the director of non - ferrous research at Everbright Futures Research Institute, with more than a decade of commodity research experience. Wang Heng focuses on aluminum and silicon research, and Zhu Xi focuses on lithium and nickel research [33][34].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The industrial silicon market continues to face issues of oversupply and insufficient effective demand, with short - term prices tending to be weak, but the possibility of price fluctuations due to new narratives needs to be watched [15]. - The polysilicon market is expected to see production increases in August, with downstream production scheduling also increasing to a certain extent. However, the inventory may slightly accumulate, and the short - term price may fluctuate widely [17]. Summary by Directory 01. Week - ly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation Weekly Key Points Summary - Demand: The weekly polysilicon production was 27,700 tons, showing an obvious rebound but still lower than the same period in 2024. The DMC production was 47,800 tons, a week - on - week increase of 2,200 tons [13]. - Price: The spot price of 553 (non - oxygenated) industrial silicon in the East China region was 9,550 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 300 yuan/ton; the 421 industrial silicon spot price was 10,150 yuan/ton, with a converted futures price of 9,350 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 200 yuan/ton. The futures main contract (SI2509) closed at 8,500 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 1,225 yuan/ton [14]. - Cost: The average cost in Xinjiang was 8,325 yuan/ton, remaining unchanged; in Yunnan, it was 9,533.3 yuan/ton, also unchanged; in Sichuan, it was 9,178.6 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 21.4 yuan/ton [14]. - Supply: The weekly industrial silicon production was 78,600 tons, a week - on - week increase of 3,500 tons. From January to June, the cumulative aluminum alloy production was 9.097 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 1.089 million tons or 13.6%. The cumulative net export of industrial silicon from January to June was 335,500 tons, a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 15,800 tons or 4.49% [14]. - Inventory: The industrial silicon inventory was 696,600 tons, a week - on - week increase of 510 tons, remaining at a high level. Among them, the factory inventory was 272,500 tons, a week - on - week increase of 110 tons; the market inventory was 171,500 tons, remaining unchanged; the registered warehouse receipt inventory was 252,600 tons, a week - on - week increase of 400 tons [14]. Fundamental Assessment - The industrial silicon market has a complex situation. The basis shows a premium, the cost is basically stable, the supply has increased this week, the demand has marginally improved, and the inventory remains high. The short - term price is expected to be highly volatile, and it is recommended to wait and see [15]. - The polysilicon market is affected by capacity integration expectations and corporate price - holding strategies. The price is in a high - level shock. The production is expected to increase in August, and the inventory may slightly accumulate. The short - term price may fluctuate widely, and cautious participation is advised [17]. 02. Spot and Futures Market Industrial Silicon - As of August 1, 2025, the spot price of 553 (non - oxygenated) industrial silicon in the East China region was 9,550 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 300 yuan/ton; the 421 industrial silicon spot price was 10,150 yuan/ton, with a converted futures price of 9,350 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 200 yuan/ton. The futures main contract (SI2509) closed at 8,500 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 1,225 yuan/ton [22]. Polysilicon - As of August 1, 2025, the average price of N - type re -投料 polysilicon was 47 yuan/kg, a week - on - week increase of 0.5 yuan/kg; the average price of N - type dense material was 46 yuan/kg, a week - on - week increase of 0.5 yuan/kg. The futures main contract (PS2509) closed at 49,200 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 1,825 yuan/ton. The basis of the main contract was - 2,200 yuan/ton, with a basis rate of - 4.68% [25]. 03. Industrial Silicon Total Production - As of August 1, 2025, the weekly industrial silicon production was 78,600 tons, a week - on - week increase of 3,500 tons. In June 2025, the industrial silicon production was 331,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 26,000 tons. From January to June, the cumulative year - on - year decrease was 321,000 tons or 14.74% [30]. Main Production Areas' Production - The report shows the production trends of industrial silicon in main production areas such as Sichuan, Yunnan, Xinjiang, Inner Mongolia, and Gansu through charts [32][34][37]. Production Cost - As of August 1, 2025, the electricity price and silica price in main production areas remained unchanged. The price of refined coal in main production areas also remained unchanged. The average cost in Xinjiang was 8,325 yuan/ton, remaining unchanged; in Yunnan, it was 9,533.3 yuan/ton, also unchanged; in Sichuan, it was 9,178.6 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 21.4 yuan/ton [43][46]. Visible Inventory - As of August 1, 2025, the industrial silicon inventory was 696,600 tons, a week - on - week increase of 510 tons, remaining at a high level. Among them, the factory inventory was 272,500 tons, a week - on - week increase of 110 tons; the market inventory was 171,500 tons, remaining unchanged; the registered warehouse receipt inventory was 252,600 tons, a week - on - week increase of 400 tons [49]. 04. Polysilicon Production - As of August 1, 2025, the weekly polysilicon production was 27,700 tons, showing an obvious rebound but still lower than the same period in 2024. In July, the polysilicon production was 106,300 tons, a month - on - month increase of 5,300 tons. From January to July, the cumulative polysilicon production was 679,400 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 41.03% [54]. Operating Rate and Scheduling - As of August 1, 2025, the operating rate of polysilicon in July was 39.23%, a month - on - month increase of 3.91 percentage points. The expected production in August was 130,500 tons, with the operating rate continuing to rise [57]. Inventory - As of August 1, 2025, the polysilicon inventory was 275,800 tons according to Baichuan Yingfu's statistics and 229,000 tons according to SMM's statistics, remaining at a high level compared to the same period [60]. Cost and Profit - As of August 1, 2025, the polysilicon production cost was 41,333.25 yuan/ton, a week - on - week slight decrease; the gross profit was 3,416.75 yuan/ton, a week - on - week continuous improvement [63]. Silicon Wafer - The weekly silicon wafer production was 11GW, a week - on - week slight decrease. In July, the silicon wafer production was 52.75GW, a month - on - month decrease of 6.09GW. From January to July, the silicon wafer production was 373.08GW, a year - on - year decrease of 10.31%. The silicon wafer inventory was 18.15GW, a week - on - week slight increase. The predicted production in August was 53.29GW, a month - on - month slight increase [66][69]. Battery Cell - In July, the battery cell production was 57.26GW, a month - on - month increase of 1.07GW. The operating rate of photovoltaic batteries in July was 62.4%, a month - on - month increase of 3.32 percentage points. From January to July, the cumulative battery cell production was 385.79GW, a year - on - year increase of 0.33%. The inventory of photovoltaic battery export factories was 5.33GW, a week - on - week continuous decrease. The expected production in August was 59.15GW, a month - on - month slight increase [74][77]. Module - In July, the module production was 47.1GW, a month - on - month increase of 0.8GW. The operating rate of modules in July was 45.92%, a month - on - month increase of 0.72 percentage points. From January to July, the cumulative module production was 330.4GW, a year - on - year increase of 1.47%. The finished product inventory of photovoltaic modules was 33.5GW, a week - on - week continuous increase. The expected production in August was 46.82GW, a decrease compared to July [82][85]. 05. Organic Silicon Production - As of August 1, 2025, the DMC production was 47,800 tons, a week - on - week increase of 2,200 tons. In July, the DMC production was 206,600 tons, a month - on - month increase of 6,300 tons. From January to July, the cumulative DMC production was 1.4334 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 18.17% [92]. Price and Profit - As of August 1, 2025, the average price of organic silicon was 12,400 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 50 yuan/ton. The DMC gross profit was - 215.63 yuan/ton, remaining unchanged [95]. Inventory - As of August 1, 2025, the DMC inventory was 46,800 tons, a week - on - week increase of 1,100 tons [99]. 06. Silicon - Aluminum Alloy and Exports Aluminum Alloy - As of August 1, 2025, the price of primary aluminum alloy A356 was 20,920 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 320 yuan/ton; the price of recycled aluminum alloy ADC12 was 19,970 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 190 yuan/ton. From January to June, the cumulative aluminum alloy production was 909,700 tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 108,900 tons or 13.6%. The operating rate of primary aluminum alloy was 54.6%, and that of recycled aluminum alloy was 53.1% [104][107]. Exports - From January to June, the cumulative net export of industrial silicon in China was 335,500 tons, a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 15,800 tons or 4.49% [110].

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call on the Photovoltaic Industry Industry Overview - The photovoltaic industry is facing challenges related to overcapacity and price competition, prompting discussions among top-level officials and major companies to address these issues [1][2][6]. Core Insights and Arguments - A joint platform company is proposed to acquire approximately 1 million tons of excess capacity, with an estimated acquisition cost of 60 to 70 billion yuan, funded by corporate funds, bank loans, and asset management companies (AMC) [1][2]. - Recent meetings led by high-level officials and the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) have emphasized the need for selling prices to exceed full costs, with penalties for low-price sales, marking a shift from previous self-regulatory policies [2][6]. - The short-term outlook for polysilicon futures remains positive, with increased positions and significant inflow of external funds, while the net short positions are rising, indicating potential for further price increases [4][10]. - The cost structure indicates that small enterprises have a minimum full cost of at least 40,000 yuan per ton, while larger companies exceed this cost, providing a price support ceiling for polysilicon [4][10]. Stock Performance - Recent stock performance in the photovoltaic sector has been closely tied to polysilicon futures, with leading stocks like Tongwei and Daqo experiencing significant gains of 20-30% over two weeks, while other segments lagged behind [5][10]. - The overall market sentiment remains optimistic regarding policy implementation, given the industry's large scale and the necessity for governance [5][10]. Challenges and Opportunities - The industry faces rapid demand decline, with significant price fluctuations in 182 silicon wafers, necessitating urgent measures against price competition [3][6]. - Despite challenges, there are opportunities for growth, particularly in polysilicon futures and undervalued stocks, with a recommendation to focus on segments like polysilicon, batteries, and glass [10][12]. - Companies such as GCL-Poly, Tongwei, and Daqo are highlighted for their competitive advantages in their respective fields [11]. Key Factors for Future Development - Future growth will depend on policy support, the trajectory of polysilicon futures prices, and the health of the entire supply chain [12]. - The expectation of favorable policies and the potential for continued price increases in polysilicon futures are seen as critical for the industry's recovery and growth [12].