Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [2][6][10] Core Insights - The company has experienced lower-than-expected performance, with a reported loss of 950 million RMB in 2H25, which is a 69% year-on-year improvement but a 270% increase quarter-on-quarter [6] - The average selling price of polysilicon has decreased to approximately 40,500 RMB per ton, following a government halt on capacity storage plans, which previously led to price increases [6] - The target price has been revised down to 6.30 HKD from 8.62 HKD due to the decline in polysilicon prices, while maintaining a "Buy" rating as the stock is considered undervalued after recent price corrections [6][10] Financial Overview - Revenue projections for the company are as follows: 21,213 million RMB in 2024, 15,254 million RMB in 2025, and 17,188 million RMB in 2026E, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 31.0% and 28.1% for 2024 and 2025 respectively [5][12] - Net profit is expected to improve from a loss of 3,905 million RMB in 2024 to a profit of 1,038 million RMB by 2028 [5][12] - The company’s market capitalization is approximately 1,948.56 million HKD, with a 52-week high of 9.01 HKD and a low of 4.11 HKD [4][10] Business Segment Performance - The polysilicon segment is projected to see sales volumes of 20.3 million tons in 2023, decreasing to 8.3 million tons in 2025, with an expected average selling price of 40,000 RMB per ton in 2026E [8] - The company’s gross margin for polysilicon is expected to remain negative, with projections indicating a gross loss of 1.2 million RMB per ton in 2026E [8] - Investment income is projected at 660 million RMB for 2025, primarily from the sale of power plants and investments in joint ventures [6][12]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [2][6][10] Core Insights - The company has experienced lower-than-expected performance, with a reported loss of 950 million RMB in 2H25, which is a 69% year-on-year improvement but a 270% increase quarter-on-quarter [6] - The average selling price of polysilicon has decreased to approximately 40,500 RMB per ton, following a government halt on capacity storage plans, which previously led to price increases [6] - The target price has been revised down to 6.30 HKD from 8.62 HKD due to the decline in polysilicon prices, while maintaining a "Buy" rating as the stock is considered undervalued after recent price corrections [6][10] Financial Overview - Revenue projections for the company are as follows: 21,213 million RMB in 2024, 15,254 million RMB in 2025, and 17,188 million RMB in 2026E, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 31.0% and 28.1% for 2024 and 2025 respectively [5][12] - Net profit is expected to improve from a loss of 3,905 million RMB in 2024 to a profit of 1,038 million RMB by 2028 [5][12] - The company’s market capitalization is approximately 1,948.56 million HKD, with a 52-week high of 9.01 HKD and a low of 4.11 HKD [4][10] Polysilicon Business Insights - The forecast for polysilicon sales volume is projected at 20.3 million tons in 2023, decreasing to 8.3 million tons in 2025, and recovering to 12.0 million tons in 2026E [8] - The estimated average selling price for polysilicon is expected to be 43,000 RMB per ton in 2024 and 40,000 RMB per ton in 2025 [8] - The gross margin for the polysilicon segment is projected to be negative, with estimates of -30.8% in 2024 and -47.9% in 2025 [8] Market Context - The company operates in the renewable energy sector, specifically in polysilicon manufacturing, which has been affected by government policies aimed at reducing overcapacity [6][10] - The overall market sentiment has shifted due to the government's decision to halt capacity storage plans, leading to a decline in polysilicon prices and impacting the profitability of companies in this sector [6][10]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the short term, the "rush to export" market caused by the adjustment of the export tax - rebate policy boosts market confidence and improves the extremely sluggish demand in the off - season. The increase in component exports from January to March will drive the growth of polysilicon demand. But if enterprises do not actively cut production to digest inventory, polysilicon prices will face significant downward pressure in the medium and long term [2][21]. - In the long run, cost control and technological optimization are the core competitiveness of enterprises and key variables affecting the long - term trend of polysilicon futures. As the industry returns to a market - oriented competition order, the supply - demand pattern will shift from "oversupply and high inventory" to a healthy state, and the futures price will more accurately reflect the real value of the industry [3][21]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Policy Influence - Since May 2025, rumors and measures related to polysilicon capacity storage have dominated the sentiment and price trend of polysilicon futures, showing characteristics of "expected - driven rise - regulatory cooling and shock - policy reversal and sharp decline". The establishment of the capacity integration and acquisition platform "Guanghe Qiancheng" in December 2025 drove the futures price to a high of 61,985 yuan/ton on December 17. However, subsequent regulatory interventions, including the market supervision department's约谈 of leading enterprises in January 2026, reversed the policy expectation, causing a sharp decline in the futures price [4]. Current Situation of the Polysilicon Industry - From January 2023 to December 2025, the polysilicon industry's over - supply is a long - term problem with periodic adjustments. The mismatch between production expansion and demand, and the subsequent supply rebound after industry adjustment, have led to continuous over - supply. The industry's high inventory, reaching 32,234 tons for polysilicon enterprises and over 500,000 tons in the industrial chain by 2026, will suppress prices in the first half of 2026 [7][9]. - Before 2024, the photovoltaic industry chain had high profitability. After 2024, intensified competition led to profit decline. In the second half of 2025, profits concentrated in the polysilicon segment, while downstream segments suffered losses. The anti - monopoly约谈 in January 2026 will reshape the profit distribution logic, promoting a return to market - oriented rationality [10][13]. Cancellation of Export Tax Rebates - From April 1, 2026, the 13% VAT export tax - rebate rate for photovoltaic products will be zeroed, and the tax - rebate rate for power batteries will be gradually reduced to zero. Before April 1, a "rush to export" is likely to occur. It is estimated that the demand for polysilicon may increase by 1 - 1.5 tons per month, and the oversupply may be reduced to less than 10,000 tons. However, after April, the demand will face pressure, and enterprises need to cut production [16][18]. Polysilicon Futures - In the short term, the "rush to export" will drive polysilicon demand growth. But without production cuts, prices will face downward pressure in the medium and long term. In the long run, cost control and technological optimization will drive the industry to a more balanced state, and the futures price will better reflect the real value of the industry [21].

Report Industry Investment Rating No specific industry investment ratings were provided in the report. Core Viewpoints of the Report - A-share market is expected to continue its upward trend in the short term and may rise further in 2026 compared to 2025, supported by macro policies, inflation, capital market reforms, and the role of Central Huijin [1]. - The bond market is favored by asset shortages and weak economic conditions, but the central bank has recently warned of interest rate risks [1]. - Metal prices are influenced by factors such as supply disruptions, macro sentiment, and cost changes. Some metals are expected to have upward trends, while others may experience volatility or are subject to supply concerns [1]. - Energy and chemical product prices are affected by factors such as geopolitical conflicts, supply and demand, and cost support. Some products are expected to have upward trends, while others may experience volatility [1]. - Agricultural product prices are influenced by factors such as seasonal changes, policy support, and supply and demand. Some products are expected to have upward trends, while others may experience volatility [1]. Summary by Category A-shares - A-share market has continuous trading volume increase. Short-term, the index is expected to remain strong. In 2026, the index may continue to rise on the basis of 2025, supported by macro policies, inflation, capital market reforms, and Central Huijin [1]. Bonds - Asset shortages and weak economic conditions are favorable for bond futures, but the central bank has recently warned of interest rate risks. Attention should be paid to the Bank of Japan's interest rate decision [1]. Metals - Copper: Supply disruptions and improved macro sentiment have led to a rise in copper prices, and the upward trend is expected to continue [1]. - Aluminum: Domestic electrolytic aluminum has accumulated inventory, but macro sentiment is positive, and global aluminum ingot supply is expected to tighten, leading to a strong aluminum price [1]. - Alumina: Supply has significant release potential, putting pressure on prices. However, the current price is close to the cost line, and the price is expected to oscillate [1]. - Zinc: Fundamentals have improved, and the cost center has shifted upward. With positive macro sentiment, zinc prices have risen, but the upside space is limited due to fundamental pressure [1]. - Nickel: Supply concerns have led to a significant increase in nickel prices and an increase in positions. The short-term price may be strongly oscillating, but high risks and volatility are present at high price levels. Attention should be paid to Indonesian policies and macro sentiment [1]. Industrial and Energy Chemicals - Polycrystalline silicon: Northwest production has increased, while southwest production has decreased. December production schedules for polycrystalline silicon and organic silicon have declined [1]. - Carbonate lithium: It is the traditional peak season for new energy vehicles, with strong energy storage demand and increased supply from restarts. Prices have risen rapidly in the short term [1]. - Rebar and hot-rolled coil: Futures-spot arbitrage positions can be rolled for profit-taking. The price valuation is not high, and short-selling is not recommended [1]. - Iron ore: Near-term contracts are restricted by production cuts, but the commodity sentiment is positive, and there is still an upward opportunity for far-term contracts [1]. - Silicone and ferrosilicon: There is a combination of weak reality and strong expectations. In the short term, expectations dominate, and energy consumption control and anti-involution may disrupt supply [1]. - Soda ash: The market sentiment has improved, and the supply and demand are supportive. The price is low and expected to be strong in the short term [1]. - Coking coal and coke: If the "capacity reduction" expectation continues to ferment and there is pre-holiday restocking of spot goods, there may still be room for price increases, but the actual increase is difficult to judge, and volatility increases after a significant rise [1]. Agricultural Products - Palm oil: The December MPOB data is expected to be bearish, but the price is expected to reverse under themes such as seasonal production cuts, the B50 policy, and US biofuels. Short-term rebounds due to macro sentiment should be watched out for [1]. - Soybean oil: The fundamentals are strong, and it is recommended to be overweight in the oil market. Consider the spread between soybean oil and palm oil [1]. - Cotton: There is support but no driving force in the short term. Future attention should be paid to the central government's No. 1 document in the first quarter of next year, planting area intentions, weather during the planting period, and peak season demand [1]. - Sugar: There is a global surplus and increased domestic supply. The short side consensus is strong. If the price continues to fall, there is strong cost support, but there is a lack of continuous driving force in the short term [1]. - Corn: With the release of reserve and imported grains, the supply has increased. The spot price is expected to be firm in the short term, and the futures price will oscillate within a range [1]. - Pulp: The 05 contract is expected to oscillate between 5400 - 5700 yuan/ton due to the tug-of-war between "strong supply" and "weak demand" [1]. - Logs: The spot price has shown signs of bottoming out and rebounding, and the downward space for the futures price is limited. However, the January overseas quotation has slightly declined, and there is a lack of upward driving factors. The price is expected to oscillate between 760 - 790 yuan/m³ [1]. Energy and Chemicals - Crude oil: OPEC+ has suspended production increases until the end of 2026. The uncertainty of the Russia-Ukraine peace agreement and US sanctions on Venezuelan oil exports have an impact [1]. - Fuel oil: Follows the trend of crude oil in the short term, with no prominent supply-demand contradictions [1]. - Asphalt: The "14th Five-Year Plan" rush demand is likely to be disproven, and the supply of Ma Rui crude oil is sufficient. The profit margin is high [1]. - Natural rubber: The raw material cost provides strong support, the futures-spot price difference has rebounded significantly, and the midstream inventory has increased substantially [1]. - BR rubber: The upward momentum has slowed down, the spot price has led the recovery of the basis, and the processing profit has narrowed. There are positive factors for future domestic butadiene exports [1]. - PTA: The PX market has experienced a sharp rise, and the PTA market is expected to remain tight in 2026. Domestic PTA maintains high production, and the gasoline spread provides support for aromatics [1]. - Ethylene glycol: Two MEG plants in Taiwan, China, plan to shut down next month. The price has rebounded rapidly due to supply-side news, and the downstream demand is slightly better than expected [1]. - Styrene: The Asian market is stable, with suppliers reluctant to cut prices due to losses and buyers pressing for lower prices due to weak downstream demand. The market is in a weak balance, and the upward momentum depends on overseas markets [1]. - Urea: The export sentiment has eased, and the upside space is limited due to insufficient domestic demand. There is support from anti-involution and the cost side [1]. - PE: There is a risk of rising crude oil prices due to geopolitical conflicts. The supply pressure is high, and the market expectation is weak due to planned production increases in 2026 [1]. - PP: The supply pressure is high, and the downstream improvement is less than expected. The cost is supported by high propylene monomer and crude oil prices [1]. - PVC: The global production is expected to be low in 2026, but the current supply pressure is rising. The demand is weak, and the implementation of differential electricity prices in the northwest may force the clearance of PVC production capacity [1]. - LPG: The January CP has risen unexpectedly, and the import cost provides strong support. Geopolitical conflicts have increased the risk premium. The inventory accumulation trend has slowed down, and the domestic port inventory is decreasing. The long-term demand for LPG is expected to increase [1]. Aviation - It is expected to peak in mid-January. Airlines are still cautious about trial resumptions [1].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report is that after a recent stock price correction, valuations of certain leading photovoltaic companies have become attractive, with a particular focus on polysilicon as a benchmark for "anti-involution" [1] - The report highlights that the preferred choice is the leading granular silicon company, GCL-Poly Energy Holdings Limited (03800), and also favors the undervalued rod silicon leader, Xinte Energy Co., Ltd. (01799), which is expected to benefit more from capacity consolidation [1] - The recent Central Work Conference emphasized the need for deeper regulation of "involution-style" competition, marking a shift from "comprehensive regulation" to "in-depth regulation," which suggests that substantial capacity reduction policies may gradually be introduced [1] Group 2 - The establishment of a polysilicon capacity consolidation platform has been officially completed, as reported by the China Photovoltaic Industry Association, indicating a significant step in the long-anticipated integration of the photovoltaic industry [1] - Beijing Huaguang Qiancheng Technology Co., Ltd. has completed its registration, marking the formal launch of the "polysilicon capacity integration acquisition platform" [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the report industry investment rating is provided in the content. Core Viewpoints - On December 16, industrial silicon fluctuated weakly. The main contract 2605 closed at 8,365 yuan/ton, with an intraday decline of 0.59%, and the position increased by 1,514 lots to 202,000 lots. The spot reference price of industrial silicon from Baichuan was 9,580 yuan/ton, remaining stable compared to the previous trading day. The price of the lowest deliverable 421 grade dropped to 8,850 yuan/ton, and the spot premium narrowed to 485 yuan/ton [2]. - Polysilicon fluctuated strongly. The main contract 2605 closed at 58,600 yuan/ton, with an intraday increase of 1.48%, and the position increased by 5,174 lots to 148,000 lots. The price of N-type recycled polysilicon material remained stable at 52,350 yuan/ton, and the price of the lowest deliverable silicon material also remained stable at 52,350 yuan/ton. The spot discount to the main contract widened to 6,300 yuan/ton [2]. - Silicon plants in the southwest region have reduced production to the expected level. However, due to the long production - reduction period, the production reduction is less than the decline in downstream procurement volume, and the market is not very sensitive to the production - reduction news. Current transactions are concentrated in hedging orders or undelivered previous orders. Industrial silicon is unlikely to show a trend in the short term and will continue to fluctuate and adjust [2]. - The exchange has taken measures such as increasing margin requirements, limiting positions, and expanding the delivery end for polysilicon to ease the intensity of squeeze - out fluctuations. Recently, there have been various speculations about the registration dynamics of the capacity storage company, and the stock and futures markets have shown different reactions. The oversupply of polysilicon in the spot market and the shortage of warehouse receipts have led to the decoupling of spot and futures operations. There is no upward driving force for the spot market, but the high virtual - to - real ratio structure provides support for the futures market in the absence of a large - scale registration of warehouse receipts [2]. Summary by Directory 1. Research Viewpoints - Industrial silicon and polysilicon showed different trends on December 16. Industrial silicon was weak, while polysilicon was strong. The production reduction in the southwest region did not have a significant impact on the market, and the short - term trend of industrial silicon is uncertain. The exchange's measures for polysilicon aim to stabilize the market, and the relationship between spot and futures is complex [2]. 2. Daily Data Monitoring - **Industrial Silicon**: The futures settlement price of the main contract increased by 15 yuan/ton to 8,365 yuan/ton. Most spot prices remained stable, and the spot premium narrowed by 15 yuan/ton to 485 yuan/ton. The industrial silicon warehouse receipts increased by 72 to 8,815, and the Guangzhou Futures Exchange inventory increased by 6,655 tons to 43,095 tons. The total social inventory decreased by 10,100 tons to 454,300 tons [3]. - **Polysilicon**: The futures settlement price of the main contract increased by 570 yuan/ton to 58,600 yuan/ton. The spot prices of various types of polysilicon remained stable, and the spot discount to the main contract widened by 570 yuan/ton to 6,300 yuan/ton. The polysilicon warehouse receipts remained unchanged at 3,640, and the Guangzhou Futures Exchange inventory increased by 40,000 tons to 109,200 tons. The total social inventory increased by 8,000 tons to 299,000 tons [3]. - **Organic Silicon**: The price of DMC in the East China market remained stable at 13,700 yuan/ton. The price of dimethyl silicone oil increased by 1,000 yuan/ton to 15,200 yuan/ton, while the prices of other organic silicon products remained stable [3]. 3. Chart Analysis - **3.1 Industrial Silicon and Cost - end Prices**: The charts show the prices of different grades of industrial silicon, grade spreads, regional spreads, electricity prices, silica prices, and refined coal prices [5][7][10]. - **3.2 Downstream Product Prices**: The charts display the prices of DMC, organic silicon products, polysilicon, silicon wafers, battery cells, and components [13][15][17]. - **3.3 Inventory**: The charts present the futures inventories of industrial silicon and polysilicon, the weekly industry inventories of industrial silicon, the weekly inventory changes of industrial silicon, the weekly inventories of polysilicon, and the weekly inventory of DMC [20][21][23]. - **3.4 Cost and Profit**: The charts show the average cost and profit levels of industrial silicon, the weekly cost and profit of industrial silicon, the processing industry profit of polysilicon, the cost and profit of DMC, and the cost and profit of aluminum alloy [25][27][29].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - On the 15th, industrial silicon fluctuated strongly. The main contract 2605 closed at 8,350 yuan/ton, with an intraday increase of 1.15%. The position increased by 11,817 lots to 201,000 lots. The spot reference price of industrial silicon from Baichuan was 9,580 yuan/ton, remaining stable compared to the previous trading day. The price of the lowest deliverable 421 dropped to 8,850 yuan/ton, and the spot premium expanded to 500 yuan/ton. Polysilicon also fluctuated strongly. The main contract 2605 closed at 58,030 yuan/ton, with an intraday increase of 3.61%. The position increased by 16,408 lots to 143,000 lots. The price of N-type recycled polysilicon material remained stable at 52,350 yuan/ton, and the price of the lowest deliverable silicon material remained stable at 52,350 yuan/ton. The spot discount to the main contract expanded to 5,730 yuan/ton. [2] - Silicon plants in the southwest have reduced production to the previously expected level. Due to the long production reduction rhythm, the production reduction is less than the decline in downstream procurement volume, and the market is not very sensitive to the production reduction news. Current transactions are concentrated in hedging orders or undelivered previous orders. Industrial silicon is unlikely to show a trend in the short term and will continue to fluctuate and adjust. The exchange has increased margin requirements, limited positions, and expanded the delivery end for polysilicon to ease the intensity of squeeze fluctuations. Recently, there have been various speculations about the registration dynamics of the capacity storage company in the market, and there are differences in the feedback between the stock and futures markets. The surplus of polysilicon spot and the shortage of warehouse receipts have led to the decoupling of spot and futures operations. There is currently no upward driving force for the spot, but on the basis that there is no significant registration of warehouse receipts, the high virtual-to-real ratio structure provides support for the futures price. [2] Group 3: Summary of Each Section 1. Daily Data Monitoring - **Industrial Silicon**: The futures settlement price of the main contract decreased by 85 yuan/ton to 8,350 yuan/ton, and the near-month contract remained unchanged at 8,385 yuan/ton. The spot prices of various grades of industrial silicon remained stable. The current lowest deliverable price was 8,850 yuan/ton, and the spot premium expanded by 85 yuan to 500 yuan/ton. The industrial silicon warehouse receipts remained unchanged at 8,619, the Guangzhou Futures Exchange inventory increased by 6,655 tons to 43,095 tons, the inventory at Huangpu Port decreased by 2,000 tons to 56,000 tons, the inventory at Tianjin Port decreased by 1,000 tons to 80,000 tons, the inventory at Kunming Port remained unchanged at 52,000 tons, the factory inventory decreased by 7,100 tons to 266,300 tons, and the total social inventory decreased by 10,100 tons to 454,300 tons. [3] - **Polysilicon**: The futures settlement price of the main contract increased by 840 yuan/ton to 58,030 yuan/ton, and the near-month contract increased by 2,385 yuan/ton to 59,385 yuan/ton. The spot prices of various grades of polysilicon remained stable. The current lowest deliverable price was 52,300 yuan/ton, and the spot discount to the main contract expanded by 840 yuan to 5,730 yuan/ton. The polysilicon warehouse receipts remained unchanged at 3,640, the Guangzhou Futures Exchange inventory increased by 40,000 tons to 109,200 tons, the factory inventory increased by 8,000 tons to 298,800 tons, and the total social inventory increased by 8,000 tons to 299,000 tons. [3] - **Organic Silicon**: The DMC price in the East China market remained stable at 13,700 yuan/ton, the price of raw rubber remained stable at 14,500 yuan/ton, the price of 107 glue remained stable at 14,200 yuan/ton, and the price of dimethyl silicone oil increased by 1,000 yuan/ton to 15,200 yuan/ton. [3] 2. Chart Analysis 2.1 Industrial Silicon and Cost-side Prices - The report provides charts showing the prices of various grades of industrial silicon, grade price differences, regional price differences, electricity prices, silica prices, and refined coal prices. [5][8][10] 2.2 Downstream Product Prices - The report provides charts showing the prices of DMC, organic silicon products, polysilicon, silicon wafers, battery cells, and components. [14][16][18] 2.3 Inventory - The report provides charts showing the industrial silicon futures inventory, factory inventory, weekly industry inventory, and weekly inventory changes, as well as the DMC weekly inventory and polysilicon weekly inventory. [21][24] 2.4 Cost and Profit - The report provides charts showing the average cost and profit levels of main production areas, the weekly cost and profit of industrial silicon, the profit of the aluminum alloy processing industry, the cost and profit of DMC, and the cost and profit of polysilicon. [27][29][31]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - On November 24, industrial silicon fluctuated weakly. The main contract 2601 closed at 8,940 yuan/ton, with an intraday decline of 1%. The position increased by 1,672 lots to 263,000 lots. The reference price of industrial silicon spot by Baichuan was 9,745 yuan/ton, up 63 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The price of the lowest deliverable 421 remained stable at 8,950 yuan/ton, and the spot premium narrowed to 10 yuan/ton [2]. - Polysilicon fluctuated strongly. The main contract 2601 closed at 53,315 yuan/ton, with an intraday increase of 1.15%. The position increased by 2,161 lots to 128,000 lots. The price of N-type recycled polysilicon was 52,250 yuan/ton, and the price of the lowest deliverable silicon material was also 52,250 yuan/ton. The spot discount to the main contract widened to 4,040 yuan/ton [2]. - Organic silicon enterprises started to respond to the national call against involution, jointly reducing production to support prices. Funds entered the market in advance to layout related varieties. Southwest industrial silicon plants expanded production cuts, but the overall supply in the north remained stable, actively shipping to spot-futures traders, resulting in the price not recovering to the level where Southwest silicon plants could sell easily. Industrial silicon is unlikely to show a trend in the short term and will continue to fluctuate and adjust [2]. - Due to the significant contraction of silicon wafer orders, second- and third-tier manufacturers experienced panic price cuts, but silicon material manufacturers had a strong willingness to support prices. The market is not optimistic about the storage of polysilicon production capacity. Coupled with the contraction of terminal demand, there is pressure of high prices but low trading volume on the silicon material end. It is expected that polysilicon will mainly fluctuate weakly, with the bottom anchored to the spot price. Attention should be paid to whether the willingness of silicon material enterprises to support prices can continue [2]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Daily Data Monitoring - **Industrial Silicon**: The futures settlement price of the main contract decreased by 20 yuan/ton to 8,940 yuan/ton; the price of some oxygen-free 553 silicon remained unchanged, while the price of some oxygenated 553 silicon decreased by 50 - 100 yuan/ton; the price of 421 silicon decreased by 50 yuan/ton in some regions; the current lowest deliverable price decreased by 50 yuan/ton to 8,950 yuan/ton; the spot premium decreased by 15 yuan/ton to 10 yuan/ton; the industrial silicon warehouse receipt decreased by 854 to 41,524, and the Guangzhou Futures Exchange inventory decreased by 14,835 tons to 211,890 tons [4]. - **Polysilicon**: The futures settlement price of the main contract decreased by 45 yuan/ton to 53,315 yuan/ton, while the near-month contract increased by 525 yuan/ton to 56,290 yuan/ton; the price of some polysilicon materials remained unchanged, and the price of N-type recycled polysilicon decreased by 50 yuan/ton; the current lowest deliverable price decreased by 50 yuan/ton to 52,250 yuan/ton; the spot discount widened by 575 yuan/ton to 4,040 yuan/ton; the polysilicon warehouse receipt decreased by 230 to 7,270, and the Guangzhou Futures Exchange inventory decreased by 19,000 tons to 225,000 tons [4]. - **Organic Silicon**: The prices of DMC in the East China market, raw rubber, and 107 glue remained unchanged, while the price of dimethyl silicone oil increased by 700 yuan/ton to 14,000 yuan/ton [4]. 2. Chart Analysis 2.1 Industrial Silicon and Cost-side Prices - Charts show the prices of different grades of industrial silicon, grade price differences, regional price differences, electricity prices, silica prices, and refined coal prices [6][8][11] 2.2 Downstream Product Prices - Charts display the prices of DMC, organic silicon products, polysilicon, silicon wafers, battery cells, and components [14][16][18] 2.3 Inventory - Charts present the industrial silicon futures inventory, factory warehouse inventory, weekly industry inventory, weekly inventory changes, DMC weekly inventory, and polysilicon weekly inventory [21][22][25] 2.4 Cost and Profit - Charts show the average cost and profit levels in major production areas, weekly cost and profit of industrial silicon, profit of the aluminum alloy processing industry, DMC cost and profit, and polysilicon cost and profit [28][30][31] Group 4: Team Introduction - Zhai Dapeng, a master of science, is the director of non-ferrous research at Everbright Futures Research Institute, a senior researcher of precious metals, an intermediate investment analyst of gold, an excellent metal analyst of the Shanghai Futures Exchange, and the best industrial futures analyst of Futures Daily and Securities Times. He has more than a decade of experience in commodity research, serves many leading spot enterprises, and has published dozens of professional articles in public newspapers and magazines. He is often interviewed by multiple media. His team has won the awards of the 16th and 15th Best Metal Industry Futures Research Teams of Futures Daily and Securities Times and the title of Excellent Non-ferrous Metal Industry Team of the Shanghai Futures Exchange in 2016 [35]. - Wang Heng, a master of finance from the University of Adelaide in Australia, is a non-ferrous researcher at Everbright Futures Research Institute, mainly researching aluminum and silicon. He focuses on domestic non-ferrous industry research, tracks the dynamics of the new energy industry chain, provides timely hot - spot and policy interpretations for customers, and has written many in - depth reports, highly recognized by customers [35]. - Zhu Xi, a master of science from the University of Warwick in the UK, is a non-ferrous researcher at Everbright Futures Research Institute, mainly researching lithium and nickel. She focuses on the integration of non-ferrous metals and new energy, tracks the dynamics of the new energy industry chain, provides timely hot - spot and policy interpretations for customers, and has written many in - depth reports, highly recognized by customers [36].

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Ratings The report does not provide an overall industry investment rating. For specific industries: - **Industrial Silicon**: The investment view is that the price may fluctuate strongly in the short - term, and the trading strategy is a unilateral, fluctuating - upward trend [7]. - **Polysilicon**: The price is expected to fluctuate between 4.8 - 5.8, and the trading strategy is a unilateral, fluctuating trend [8]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The price has a callback pressure and may fluctuate widely after stabilizing, and the trading strategy is to partially close long positions [89]. 2. Core Views The report analyzes the supply, demand, inventory, cost - profit, and other aspects of industrial silicon, polysilicon, and lithium carbonate. It points out that industrial silicon may fluctuate strongly in the short - term due to supply - demand reduction and increased inventory reduction; polysilicon is in a situation of "weak reality, strong expectation", and the anti - involution policy will continue to be promoted; lithium carbonate has a callback pressure due to factors such as the slowdown of inventory reduction and the increase of overseas ore supply, but the terminal demand remains strong [7][8][89]. 3. Summary by Catalog 3.1 Industrial Silicon (SI) - **Supply**: The national weekly output is 8.92 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.42%. The output and furnace - opening numbers in major producing areas have decreased. The production in November is expected to be 38.95 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 13.88% [7]. - **Demand**: The weekly output of polysilicon is 2.75 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.24%. The weekly output of silicone is 4.92 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.03% [7]. - **Inventory**: The explicit inventory is 66.01 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.75%, and the industry inventory is 44.82 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.84% [7]. - **Cost - Profit**: The national average cost per ton is 9244 yuan, a month - on - month increase of 0.04%, and the profit per ton is - 40 yuan, a month - on - month increase of 16 yuan [7]. 3.2 Polysilicon (PS) - **Supply**: The national weekly output is 2.75 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.24%. The production in major producing areas shows different trends [8]. - **Demand**: The weekly output of silicon wafers is 12.75GW, a month - on - month decrease of 1.76%. The new installed capacity in September 2025 is 9.66GW, a month - on - month increase of 31.25% [8]. - **Inventory**: The factory inventory is 27.92 tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.22%, showing continuous inventory accumulation [8]. - **Cost - Profit**: The national average cost per ton is 41714 yuan, a month - on - month increase of 0.20%, and the profit per ton is 8391 yuan, a month - on - month decrease of 226 yuan [8]. 3.3 Lithium Carbonate (LC) - **Supply**: The national weekly output is 2.21 tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.72%. The production in November is expected to be 9.21 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.20% [89]. - **Import**: In October, the import volume of lithium carbonate was 2.39 tons, a month - on - month increase of 21.86%, and the import volume of lithium concentrate was 53.10 tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.02% [89]. - **Demand**: The weekly output of iron - lithium materials is 10.21 tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.15%. In October, the output of new energy vehicles was 177.20 million, a month - on - month increase of 9.59% [89]. - **Inventory**: The social inventory (including warehouse receipts) is 11.84 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.70%, and the inventory of lithium salt factories is 2.61 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 7.96% [89]. - **Cost - Profit**: The cost of purchasing lithium mica and lithium spodumene for lithium extraction is 97058 yuan per ton, a month - on - month increase of 11.09%, and the profit is negative [89].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Industrial Silicon: Oscillating [7] - Polysilicon: Oscillating [8] - Lithium Carbonate: Bullish [86] 2. Core Views of the Report - The market is pricing in the expectation of mine restart and continues to trade based on demand narratives. Industrial silicon and polysilicon are in a state of double - reduction in supply and demand in November, while lithium carbonate shows an increase in supply and strong demand [7][8][86]. - For industrial silicon, due to the dry season in the southwest, production is decreasing, and prices are expected to oscillate between 8200 - 9400. Polysilicon's production cut in November and the steady progress of capacity storage maintain the view of long - term improvement in fundamentals, with prices oscillating between 4.8 - 5.8. Lithium carbonate is bullish, but the upward trend depends on the supply - side restart situation [7][8][86]. 3. Summaries According to the Directory 3.1 Industrial Silicon (SI) - **Supply**: National weekly production is 9.10 tons, a 7.85% decrease from the previous week. In November, the planned production is 38.95 tons, a 13.88% decrease from the previous month. The dry season in the southwest has led to a large - scale furnace shutdown [7]. - **Demand**: The weekly production of polysilicon is 2.92 tons, a 5.05% decrease from the previous week, and the planned production in November is 12.01 tons, a 10.37% decrease from the previous month. The organic silicon weekly production is 4.79 tons, a 5.51% increase from the previous week, and the planned production in November is 21.76 tons, a 3.82% increase from the previous month [7]. - **Inventory**: The explicit inventory is 69.23 tons, a 1.22% increase from the previous week, showing a slight accumulation. The industry inventory is 46.14 tons, a 3.06% increase from the previous week [7]. - **Cost and Profit**: The national average cost per ton is 9245 yuan, a 1.66% increase from the previous week, and the profit per ton is - 45 yuan, a 225 - yuan decrease from the previous week. The average profit per ton in the main production areas has increased [7]. - **Investment View**: In the short term, prices are expected to oscillate between 8200 - 9400 [7]. 3.2 Polysilicon (PS) - **Supply**: National weekly production is 2.92 tons, a 5.05% decrease from the previous week, and the planned production in November is 12.01 tons, a 10.37% decrease from the previous month [8]. - **Demand**: The weekly production of silicon wafers is 13.24GW, a 1.54% decrease from the previous week, and the planned production in November is 57.66GW, a 4.93% decrease from the previous month [8]. - **Inventory**: Factory inventory is 27.69 tons, a 0.25% increase from the previous week, showing continuous accumulation [8]. - **Cost and Profit**: The national average cost per ton is 41603 yuan, a 0.12% increase from the previous week, and the profit per ton is 8647 yuan, a 50 - yuan decrease from the previous week [8]. - **News**: The total investment in capacity storage may range from 20 billion to 30 billion yuan, but the specific amount is uncertain [8]. - **Investment View**: In the short term, prices are expected to oscillate between 4.8 - 5.8 [8]. 3.3 Lithium Carbonate (LC) - **Supply**: National weekly production is 2.15 tons, a 2.15% increase from the previous week. The planned production in November is about 9.21 tons, a 0.20% decrease from the previous month [86]. - **Import**: In September, the import volume of lithium carbonate was 1.96 tons, a 10.30% decrease from the previous month, and the import volume of lithium concentrate was 52.05 tons, a 10.61% increase from the previous month [86]. - **Material Demand**: The weekly production of iron - lithium materials is 9.69 tons, a 9.52% increase from the previous week, and the weekly production of ternary materials is 1.97 tons, a 2.61% increase from the previous week [86]. - **Terminal Demand**: In September, the production of new energy vehicles was 1.617 million, a 16.29% increase from the previous month, and the sales volume was 1.604 million, a 14.96% increase from the previous month. From January to October, the cumulative tender for energy storage was 201.5GWh, a 44% increase year - on - year [86]. - **Inventory**: Social inventory (including warehouse receipts) is 12.40 tons, a 2.67% decrease from the previous week, showing continuous destocking [86]. - **Cost and Profit**: The cash production cost of外购 lithium mica for lithium extraction is 82865 yuan/ton, a 3.28% decrease from the previous week, and the production profit is - 5626 yuan/ton, a 3204 - yuan increase from the previous week [86]. - **Investment View**: Bullish, but the upward trend depends on the supply - side restart situation [86].