Report Industry Investment Rating No specific industry investment ratings were provided in the report. Core Viewpoints of the Report - A-share market is expected to continue its upward trend in the short term and may rise further in 2026 compared to 2025, supported by macro policies, inflation, capital market reforms, and the role of Central Huijin [1]. - The bond market is favored by asset shortages and weak economic conditions, but the central bank has recently warned of interest rate risks [1]. - Metal prices are influenced by factors such as supply disruptions, macro sentiment, and cost changes. Some metals are expected to have upward trends, while others may experience volatility or are subject to supply concerns [1]. - Energy and chemical product prices are affected by factors such as geopolitical conflicts, supply and demand, and cost support. Some products are expected to have upward trends, while others may experience volatility [1]. - Agricultural product prices are influenced by factors such as seasonal changes, policy support, and supply and demand. Some products are expected to have upward trends, while others may experience volatility [1]. Summary by Category A-shares - A-share market has continuous trading volume increase. Short-term, the index is expected to remain strong. In 2026, the index may continue to rise on the basis of 2025, supported by macro policies, inflation, capital market reforms, and Central Huijin [1]. Bonds - Asset shortages and weak economic conditions are favorable for bond futures, but the central bank has recently warned of interest rate risks. Attention should be paid to the Bank of Japan's interest rate decision [1]. Metals - Copper: Supply disruptions and improved macro sentiment have led to a rise in copper prices, and the upward trend is expected to continue [1]. - Aluminum: Domestic electrolytic aluminum has accumulated inventory, but macro sentiment is positive, and global aluminum ingot supply is expected to tighten, leading to a strong aluminum price [1]. - Alumina: Supply has significant release potential, putting pressure on prices. However, the current price is close to the cost line, and the price is expected to oscillate [1]. - Zinc: Fundamentals have improved, and the cost center has shifted upward. With positive macro sentiment, zinc prices have risen, but the upside space is limited due to fundamental pressure [1]. - Nickel: Supply concerns have led to a significant increase in nickel prices and an increase in positions. The short-term price may be strongly oscillating, but high risks and volatility are present at high price levels. Attention should be paid to Indonesian policies and macro sentiment [1]. Industrial and Energy Chemicals - Polycrystalline silicon: Northwest production has increased, while southwest production has decreased. December production schedules for polycrystalline silicon and organic silicon have declined [1]. - Carbonate lithium: It is the traditional peak season for new energy vehicles, with strong energy storage demand and increased supply from restarts. Prices have risen rapidly in the short term [1]. - Rebar and hot-rolled coil: Futures-spot arbitrage positions can be rolled for profit-taking. The price valuation is not high, and short-selling is not recommended [1]. - Iron ore: Near-term contracts are restricted by production cuts, but the commodity sentiment is positive, and there is still an upward opportunity for far-term contracts [1]. - Silicone and ferrosilicon: There is a combination of weak reality and strong expectations. In the short term, expectations dominate, and energy consumption control and anti-involution may disrupt supply [1]. - Soda ash: The market sentiment has improved, and the supply and demand are supportive. The price is low and expected to be strong in the short term [1]. - Coking coal and coke: If the "capacity reduction" expectation continues to ferment and there is pre-holiday restocking of spot goods, there may still be room for price increases, but the actual increase is difficult to judge, and volatility increases after a significant rise [1]. Agricultural Products - Palm oil: The December MPOB data is expected to be bearish, but the price is expected to reverse under themes such as seasonal production cuts, the B50 policy, and US biofuels. Short-term rebounds due to macro sentiment should be watched out for [1]. - Soybean oil: The fundamentals are strong, and it is recommended to be overweight in the oil market. Consider the spread between soybean oil and palm oil [1]. - Cotton: There is support but no driving force in the short term. Future attention should be paid to the central government's No. 1 document in the first quarter of next year, planting area intentions, weather during the planting period, and peak season demand [1]. - Sugar: There is a global surplus and increased domestic supply. The short side consensus is strong. If the price continues to fall, there is strong cost support, but there is a lack of continuous driving force in the short term [1]. - Corn: With the release of reserve and imported grains, the supply has increased. The spot price is expected to be firm in the short term, and the futures price will oscillate within a range [1]. - Pulp: The 05 contract is expected to oscillate between 5400 - 5700 yuan/ton due to the tug-of-war between "strong supply" and "weak demand" [1]. - Logs: The spot price has shown signs of bottoming out and rebounding, and the downward space for the futures price is limited. However, the January overseas quotation has slightly declined, and there is a lack of upward driving factors. The price is expected to oscillate between 760 - 790 yuan/m³ [1]. Energy and Chemicals - Crude oil: OPEC+ has suspended production increases until the end of 2026. The uncertainty of the Russia-Ukraine peace agreement and US sanctions on Venezuelan oil exports have an impact [1]. - Fuel oil: Follows the trend of crude oil in the short term, with no prominent supply-demand contradictions [1]. - Asphalt: The "14th Five-Year Plan" rush demand is likely to be disproven, and the supply of Ma Rui crude oil is sufficient. The profit margin is high [1]. - Natural rubber: The raw material cost provides strong support, the futures-spot price difference has rebounded significantly, and the midstream inventory has increased substantially [1]. - BR rubber: The upward momentum has slowed down, the spot price has led the recovery of the basis, and the processing profit has narrowed. There are positive factors for future domestic butadiene exports [1]. - PTA: The PX market has experienced a sharp rise, and the PTA market is expected to remain tight in 2026. Domestic PTA maintains high production, and the gasoline spread provides support for aromatics [1]. - Ethylene glycol: Two MEG plants in Taiwan, China, plan to shut down next month. The price has rebounded rapidly due to supply-side news, and the downstream demand is slightly better than expected [1]. - Styrene: The Asian market is stable, with suppliers reluctant to cut prices due to losses and buyers pressing for lower prices due to weak downstream demand. The market is in a weak balance, and the upward momentum depends on overseas markets [1]. - Urea: The export sentiment has eased, and the upside space is limited due to insufficient domestic demand. There is support from anti-involution and the cost side [1]. - PE: There is a risk of rising crude oil prices due to geopolitical conflicts. The supply pressure is high, and the market expectation is weak due to planned production increases in 2026 [1]. - PP: The supply pressure is high, and the downstream improvement is less than expected. The cost is supported by high propylene monomer and crude oil prices [1]. - PVC: The global production is expected to be low in 2026, but the current supply pressure is rising. The demand is weak, and the implementation of differential electricity prices in the northwest may force the clearance of PVC production capacity [1]. - LPG: The January CP has risen unexpectedly, and the import cost provides strong support. Geopolitical conflicts have increased the risk premium. The inventory accumulation trend has slowed down, and the domestic port inventory is decreasing. The long-term demand for LPG is expected to increase [1]. Aviation - It is expected to peak in mid-January. Airlines are still cautious about trial resumptions [1].

上周举行的中央工作会议指出深入整治"内卷式"竞争，对反内卷的表述首次由"综合整治"变为"深入整 治"，结合多晶硅产能收储平台正式成立，该行预计光伏"反内卷"将进一步深入，实质性去产能政策有 望逐步推出。多晶硅产能收储平台正式成立。据中国光伏行业协会报道，近日北京光和谦成科技有限责 任公司完成注册，标志着光伏行业酝酿已久的"多晶硅产能整合收购平台"正式落地。 交银国际发布研报称，在近期股价回调后，部分光伏龙头估值已具吸引力，并看好多晶硅这一"反内 卷"的标竿环节，首选颗粒硅龙头协鑫科技(03800)，同时看好更加受益于产能收储的低估值棒状硅龙头 新特能源(01799)。 ...

一、研究观点 点评 工业硅日报 工业硅&多晶硅日报（2025 年 12 月 17 日） 16 日工业硅震荡偏弱，主力 2605 收于 8365 元/吨，日内跌幅 0.59%，持仓 增仓 1514 手至 20.2 万手。百川工业硅现货参考价 9580 元/吨，较上一交易 日持稳。最低交割品#421 价格跌至 8850 元/吨，现货升水收至 485 元/ 吨。多晶硅震荡偏强，主力 2605 收于 58600 元/吨，日内涨幅 1.48%，持仓 增仓 5174 手至 14.8 万手；多晶硅 N 型复投硅料价格持稳在 52350 元/吨， 最低交割品硅料价格持稳在 52350 元/吨，现货对主力贴水扩至 6300 元/ 吨。西南两地硅厂减产达到此前预期位置，由于减产节奏拉的比较长，减 产不及下游采购跌量，市场对于减产消息反馈不太敏感。当前成交集中在 套保单或未交付前期订单。工业硅短期难见趋势，延续震荡调整。交易所 针对多晶硅进行提保限仓和交割端扩容，缓和挤仓波动烈度。近期市场关 于产能收储公司注册动态众说纷纭，股市期市反馈分歧。晶硅现货过剩和 仓单短缺导致期现运行脱钩，现货暂无上行驱动；但未出现仓单大幅注册 基础上， ...

工业硅&多晶硅日报（2025 年 12 月 16 日） 一、研究观点 点评 工业硅日报 15 日工业硅震荡偏强，主力 2605 收于 8350 元/吨，日内涨幅 1.15%，持仓 增仓 11817 手至 20.1 万手。百川工业硅现货参考价 9580 元/吨，较上一交 易日持稳。最低交割品#421 价格跌至 8850 元/吨，现货升水扩至 500 元/ 吨。多晶硅震荡偏强，主力 2605 收于 58030 元/吨，日内涨幅 3.61%，持仓 增仓 16408 手至 14.3 万手；多晶硅 N 型复投硅料价格持稳在 52350 元/ 吨，最低交割品硅料价格持稳在 52350 元/吨，现货对主力贴水扩至 5730 元/吨。西南两地硅厂减产达到此前预期位置，由于减产节奏拉的比较长， 减产不及下游采购跌量，市场对于减产消息反馈不太敏感。当前成交集中 在套保单或未交付前期订单。工业硅短期难见趋势，延续震荡调整。交易 所针对多晶硅进行提保限仓和交割端扩容，缓和挤仓波动烈度。近期市场 关于产能收储公司注册动态众说纷纭，股市期市反馈分歧。晶硅现货过剩 和仓单短缺导致期现运行脱钩，现货暂无上行驱动；但未出现仓单大幅注 册基础上 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - On November 24, industrial silicon fluctuated weakly. The main contract 2601 closed at 8,940 yuan/ton, with an intraday decline of 1%. The position increased by 1,672 lots to 263,000 lots. The reference price of industrial silicon spot by Baichuan was 9,745 yuan/ton, up 63 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The price of the lowest deliverable 421 remained stable at 8,950 yuan/ton, and the spot premium narrowed to 10 yuan/ton [2]. - Polysilicon fluctuated strongly. The main contract 2601 closed at 53,315 yuan/ton, with an intraday increase of 1.15%. The position increased by 2,161 lots to 128,000 lots. The price of N-type recycled polysilicon was 52,250 yuan/ton, and the price of the lowest deliverable silicon material was also 52,250 yuan/ton. The spot discount to the main contract widened to 4,040 yuan/ton [2]. - Organic silicon enterprises started to respond to the national call against involution, jointly reducing production to support prices. Funds entered the market in advance to layout related varieties. Southwest industrial silicon plants expanded production cuts, but the overall supply in the north remained stable, actively shipping to spot-futures traders, resulting in the price not recovering to the level where Southwest silicon plants could sell easily. Industrial silicon is unlikely to show a trend in the short term and will continue to fluctuate and adjust [2]. - Due to the significant contraction of silicon wafer orders, second- and third-tier manufacturers experienced panic price cuts, but silicon material manufacturers had a strong willingness to support prices. The market is not optimistic about the storage of polysilicon production capacity. Coupled with the contraction of terminal demand, there is pressure of high prices but low trading volume on the silicon material end. It is expected that polysilicon will mainly fluctuate weakly, with the bottom anchored to the spot price. Attention should be paid to whether the willingness of silicon material enterprises to support prices can continue [2]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Daily Data Monitoring - **Industrial Silicon**: The futures settlement price of the main contract decreased by 20 yuan/ton to 8,940 yuan/ton; the price of some oxygen-free 553 silicon remained unchanged, while the price of some oxygenated 553 silicon decreased by 50 - 100 yuan/ton; the price of 421 silicon decreased by 50 yuan/ton in some regions; the current lowest deliverable price decreased by 50 yuan/ton to 8,950 yuan/ton; the spot premium decreased by 15 yuan/ton to 10 yuan/ton; the industrial silicon warehouse receipt decreased by 854 to 41,524, and the Guangzhou Futures Exchange inventory decreased by 14,835 tons to 211,890 tons [4]. - **Polysilicon**: The futures settlement price of the main contract decreased by 45 yuan/ton to 53,315 yuan/ton, while the near-month contract increased by 525 yuan/ton to 56,290 yuan/ton; the price of some polysilicon materials remained unchanged, and the price of N-type recycled polysilicon decreased by 50 yuan/ton; the current lowest deliverable price decreased by 50 yuan/ton to 52,250 yuan/ton; the spot discount widened by 575 yuan/ton to 4,040 yuan/ton; the polysilicon warehouse receipt decreased by 230 to 7,270, and the Guangzhou Futures Exchange inventory decreased by 19,000 tons to 225,000 tons [4]. - **Organic Silicon**: The prices of DMC in the East China market, raw rubber, and 107 glue remained unchanged, while the price of dimethyl silicone oil increased by 700 yuan/ton to 14,000 yuan/ton [4]. 2. Chart Analysis 2.1 Industrial Silicon and Cost-side Prices - Charts show the prices of different grades of industrial silicon, grade price differences, regional price differences, electricity prices, silica prices, and refined coal prices [6][8][11] 2.2 Downstream Product Prices - Charts display the prices of DMC, organic silicon products, polysilicon, silicon wafers, battery cells, and components [14][16][18] 2.3 Inventory - Charts present the industrial silicon futures inventory, factory warehouse inventory, weekly industry inventory, weekly inventory changes, DMC weekly inventory, and polysilicon weekly inventory [21][22][25] 2.4 Cost and Profit - Charts show the average cost and profit levels in major production areas, weekly cost and profit of industrial silicon, profit of the aluminum alloy processing industry, DMC cost and profit, and polysilicon cost and profit [28][30][31] Group 4: Team Introduction - Zhai Dapeng, a master of science, is the director of non-ferrous research at Everbright Futures Research Institute, a senior researcher of precious metals, an intermediate investment analyst of gold, an excellent metal analyst of the Shanghai Futures Exchange, and the best industrial futures analyst of Futures Daily and Securities Times. He has more than a decade of experience in commodity research, serves many leading spot enterprises, and has published dozens of professional articles in public newspapers and magazines. He is often interviewed by multiple media. His team has won the awards of the 16th and 15th Best Metal Industry Futures Research Teams of Futures Daily and Securities Times and the title of Excellent Non-ferrous Metal Industry Team of the Shanghai Futures Exchange in 2016 [35]. - Wang Heng, a master of finance from the University of Adelaide in Australia, is a non-ferrous researcher at Everbright Futures Research Institute, mainly researching aluminum and silicon. He focuses on domestic non-ferrous industry research, tracks the dynamics of the new energy industry chain, provides timely hot - spot and policy interpretations for customers, and has written many in - depth reports, highly recognized by customers [35]. - Zhu Xi, a master of science from the University of Warwick in the UK, is a non-ferrous researcher at Everbright Futures Research Institute, mainly researching lithium and nickel. She focuses on the integration of non-ferrous metals and new energy, tracks the dynamics of the new energy industry chain, provides timely hot - spot and policy interpretations for customers, and has written many in - depth reports, highly recognized by customers [36].

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Ratings The report does not provide an overall industry investment rating. For specific industries: - **Industrial Silicon**: The investment view is that the price may fluctuate strongly in the short - term, and the trading strategy is a unilateral, fluctuating - upward trend [7]. - **Polysilicon**: The price is expected to fluctuate between 4.8 - 5.8, and the trading strategy is a unilateral, fluctuating trend [8]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The price has a callback pressure and may fluctuate widely after stabilizing, and the trading strategy is to partially close long positions [89]. 2. Core Views The report analyzes the supply, demand, inventory, cost - profit, and other aspects of industrial silicon, polysilicon, and lithium carbonate. It points out that industrial silicon may fluctuate strongly in the short - term due to supply - demand reduction and increased inventory reduction; polysilicon is in a situation of "weak reality, strong expectation", and the anti - involution policy will continue to be promoted; lithium carbonate has a callback pressure due to factors such as the slowdown of inventory reduction and the increase of overseas ore supply, but the terminal demand remains strong [7][8][89]. 3. Summary by Catalog 3.1 Industrial Silicon (SI) - **Supply**: The national weekly output is 8.92 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.42%. The output and furnace - opening numbers in major producing areas have decreased. The production in November is expected to be 38.95 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 13.88% [7]. - **Demand**: The weekly output of polysilicon is 2.75 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.24%. The weekly output of silicone is 4.92 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.03% [7]. - **Inventory**: The explicit inventory is 66.01 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.75%, and the industry inventory is 44.82 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.84% [7]. - **Cost - Profit**: The national average cost per ton is 9244 yuan, a month - on - month increase of 0.04%, and the profit per ton is - 40 yuan, a month - on - month increase of 16 yuan [7]. 3.2 Polysilicon (PS) - **Supply**: The national weekly output is 2.75 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.24%. The production in major producing areas shows different trends [8]. - **Demand**: The weekly output of silicon wafers is 12.75GW, a month - on - month decrease of 1.76%. The new installed capacity in September 2025 is 9.66GW, a month - on - month increase of 31.25% [8]. - **Inventory**: The factory inventory is 27.92 tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.22%, showing continuous inventory accumulation [8]. - **Cost - Profit**: The national average cost per ton is 41714 yuan, a month - on - month increase of 0.20%, and the profit per ton is 8391 yuan, a month - on - month decrease of 226 yuan [8]. 3.3 Lithium Carbonate (LC) - **Supply**: The national weekly output is 2.21 tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.72%. The production in November is expected to be 9.21 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.20% [89]. - **Import**: In October, the import volume of lithium carbonate was 2.39 tons, a month - on - month increase of 21.86%, and the import volume of lithium concentrate was 53.10 tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.02% [89]. - **Demand**: The weekly output of iron - lithium materials is 10.21 tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.15%. In October, the output of new energy vehicles was 177.20 million, a month - on - month increase of 9.59% [89]. - **Inventory**: The social inventory (including warehouse receipts) is 11.84 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.70%, and the inventory of lithium salt factories is 2.61 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 7.96% [89]. - **Cost - Profit**: The cost of purchasing lithium mica and lithium spodumene for lithium extraction is 97058 yuan per ton, a month - on - month increase of 11.09%, and the profit is negative [89].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Industrial Silicon: Oscillating [7] - Polysilicon: Oscillating [8] - Lithium Carbonate: Bullish [86] 2. Core Views of the Report - The market is pricing in the expectation of mine restart and continues to trade based on demand narratives. Industrial silicon and polysilicon are in a state of double - reduction in supply and demand in November, while lithium carbonate shows an increase in supply and strong demand [7][8][86]. - For industrial silicon, due to the dry season in the southwest, production is decreasing, and prices are expected to oscillate between 8200 - 9400. Polysilicon's production cut in November and the steady progress of capacity storage maintain the view of long - term improvement in fundamentals, with prices oscillating between 4.8 - 5.8. Lithium carbonate is bullish, but the upward trend depends on the supply - side restart situation [7][8][86]. 3. Summaries According to the Directory 3.1 Industrial Silicon (SI) - **Supply**: National weekly production is 9.10 tons, a 7.85% decrease from the previous week. In November, the planned production is 38.95 tons, a 13.88% decrease from the previous month. The dry season in the southwest has led to a large - scale furnace shutdown [7]. - **Demand**: The weekly production of polysilicon is 2.92 tons, a 5.05% decrease from the previous week, and the planned production in November is 12.01 tons, a 10.37% decrease from the previous month. The organic silicon weekly production is 4.79 tons, a 5.51% increase from the previous week, and the planned production in November is 21.76 tons, a 3.82% increase from the previous month [7]. - **Inventory**: The explicit inventory is 69.23 tons, a 1.22% increase from the previous week, showing a slight accumulation. The industry inventory is 46.14 tons, a 3.06% increase from the previous week [7]. - **Cost and Profit**: The national average cost per ton is 9245 yuan, a 1.66% increase from the previous week, and the profit per ton is - 45 yuan, a 225 - yuan decrease from the previous week. The average profit per ton in the main production areas has increased [7]. - **Investment View**: In the short term, prices are expected to oscillate between 8200 - 9400 [7]. 3.2 Polysilicon (PS) - **Supply**: National weekly production is 2.92 tons, a 5.05% decrease from the previous week, and the planned production in November is 12.01 tons, a 10.37% decrease from the previous month [8]. - **Demand**: The weekly production of silicon wafers is 13.24GW, a 1.54% decrease from the previous week, and the planned production in November is 57.66GW, a 4.93% decrease from the previous month [8]. - **Inventory**: Factory inventory is 27.69 tons, a 0.25% increase from the previous week, showing continuous accumulation [8]. - **Cost and Profit**: The national average cost per ton is 41603 yuan, a 0.12% increase from the previous week, and the profit per ton is 8647 yuan, a 50 - yuan decrease from the previous week [8]. - **News**: The total investment in capacity storage may range from 20 billion to 30 billion yuan, but the specific amount is uncertain [8]. - **Investment View**: In the short term, prices are expected to oscillate between 4.8 - 5.8 [8]. 3.3 Lithium Carbonate (LC) - **Supply**: National weekly production is 2.15 tons, a 2.15% increase from the previous week. The planned production in November is about 9.21 tons, a 0.20% decrease from the previous month [86]. - **Import**: In September, the import volume of lithium carbonate was 1.96 tons, a 10.30% decrease from the previous month, and the import volume of lithium concentrate was 52.05 tons, a 10.61% increase from the previous month [86]. - **Material Demand**: The weekly production of iron - lithium materials is 9.69 tons, a 9.52% increase from the previous week, and the weekly production of ternary materials is 1.97 tons, a 2.61% increase from the previous week [86]. - **Terminal Demand**: In September, the production of new energy vehicles was 1.617 million, a 16.29% increase from the previous month, and the sales volume was 1.604 million, a 14.96% increase from the previous month. From January to October, the cumulative tender for energy storage was 201.5GWh, a 44% increase year - on - year [86]. - **Inventory**: Social inventory (including warehouse receipts) is 12.40 tons, a 2.67% decrease from the previous week, showing continuous destocking [86]. - **Cost and Profit**: The cash production cost of外购 lithium mica for lithium extraction is 82865 yuan/ton, a 3.28% decrease from the previous week, and the production profit is - 5626 yuan/ton, a 3204 - yuan increase from the previous week [86]. - **Investment View**: Bullish, but the upward trend depends on the supply - side restart situation [86].

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core Viewpoints - The pattern of both supply and demand reduction in the polysilicon production schedule for November, with a situation of "weak reality and strong expectation", remains unchanged. The previously rumored capacity storage method has been confirmed for the first time, boosting market sentiment. The "involution" measures will take another step, and the progress of capacity clearance continues. In the short term, prices may show a strong trend [2] Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Price - PS2511 closed at 55,000 with a decline of 4.14%. PS2512 closed at 53,750 with a decline of 4.12%. PS2601 closed at 53,715 with a decline of 4.19%. PS2602 closed at 53,685 with a decline of 4.19% [1] - The price difference between PS2511 - PS2512 is -2,175 with an increase of 80. The price difference between PS2512 - PS2601 is 35 with an increase of 40. The price difference between PS2601 - PS2602 is 30 with no change [1] Spot Price - The average price of N - type compact material is 51 with no change. The average price of N - type mixed material is 50.5 [1][2] Basis - The basis between N - type compact material and PS2601 is -2,715 with an increase of 2,350. The basis between N - type mixed material and PS2601 is -3,215 with an increase of 2,350 [2] Inventory - The polysilicon inventory (weekly, in ten thousand tons) is 26.1 with an increase of 0.3. The silicon wafer inventory (weekly, in GW) is 18.93 with an increase of 0.46. The registered warehouse receipts (daily, in tons) is 9,590 with an increase of 490 [2] Newly - installed Capacity - In September 2025, the newly - installed capacity was 9.66 GW, a year - on - year decrease of 53.76% and a month - on - month increase of 31.25%. From January to September 2025, the cumulative installed capacity was 240.27 GW, a year - on - year increase of 49.35% [2]

Group 1: U.S. Tariff Policy - The U.S. Senate has voted to terminate President Trump's comprehensive tariff policy, with a result of 51 votes in favor and 47 against [1] - The Senate approved a joint resolution to end the national emergency declared by the President for implementing global tariffs [1] Group 2: Afghanistan and Pakistan Ceasefire - Afghanistan and Pakistan have agreed to continue the ceasefire and will hold high-level talks on November 6 to discuss the implementation mechanisms [2] - The talks were facilitated by Turkey and Qatar, marking a significant step towards reducing tensions between the two countries [2] - A monitoring and verification mechanism will be established to ensure the ceasefire is maintained, with penalties for any violations [2] Group 3: Ukraine War Status - Ukraine's President Zelensky has signed a law extending the wartime state and mobilization order for an additional 90 days, effective from November 5 [3] Group 4: Polysilicon Market Dynamics - Recent news regarding "stockpiling" has caused disturbances in the photovoltaic market, with major companies forming a consortium to complete this by the end of the year [4] - Polysilicon futures have shown limited reaction to the news, with the main contract closing at 54,950 yuan/ton, down 0.15% [4] - The absolute price of polysilicon futures had already risen above 53,000 yuan/ton prior to the news, leading to a muted market response [4] Group 5: Industry Confidence and Price Predictions - The news has strengthened industry confidence regarding the "stockpiling" initiative, which is crucial for supporting polysilicon prices [5] - Analysts predict that if the stockpiling progresses smoothly, it could lead to the clearance of 430,000 to 480,000 tons of capacity [5] - The overall market is expected to see a reduction in polysilicon supply, potentially balancing supply and demand in November [8] Group 6: Supply and Demand Outlook - The current polysilicon market is characterized by a mismatch between supply and demand, with global production expected to increase slightly in October [6] - Despite high production levels, the demand for new photovoltaic installations has been declining since the "5·31" rush, with September's new installations at 9.66 GW, a 31.4% increase month-on-month but a 53.75% decrease year-on-year [6] - The industry anticipates a potential reduction in polysilicon supply in November, which may lead to a more balanced market [8]

Core Viewpoint - Recent news regarding "storage" has stirred the photovoltaic market, with 17 leading companies reportedly forming a consortium to complete this initiative by the end of the year [1][2] Group 1: Market Reactions - The market appears to be largely unaffected by the news, as the main contract for polysilicon futures closed at 54,950 yuan/ton, down 0.15% [1] - Analysts suggest that the absolute price of polysilicon futures, which had already risen above 53,000 yuan/ton, limits the market's reaction to the news [1][2] Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The current polysilicon market is characterized by a supply-demand mismatch, with global production expected to slightly increase to 13.34 million tons in October [3] - After a surge in installations following the "5·31" policy, new photovoltaic installations have begun to decline, with September's figures showing a year-on-year decrease of 53.75% [3] Group 3: Future Outlook - Analysts predict that if the storage initiative progresses smoothly, it could lead to the clearance of 430,000 to 480,000 tons of capacity, with a total of over 1.4 million tons potentially being removed from the market [2] - Despite current weak fundamentals, the impact of the storage initiative may provide short-term support for polysilicon prices, although demand remains weak [4]