证券研究报告 行业研究 2025 年 11 月 24 日 行业龙头上调业绩指引，户外行业景气度不减 第一创业证券研究所 分析师：刘笑瑜 证书编号：S1080525070001 电话：0755-23838239 邮箱：liuxiaoyu@fcsc.com 请务必阅读正文后免责条款部分 第 1页共 4页 户外品牌龙头亚玛芬体育与昂跑 2025 年以来业绩表现亮眼，均多次上调财年 业绩指引。亚玛芬体育凭借"多品牌、跨区域、DTC 驱动"战略，2Q25 及 3Q25 调整后毛利率与 EBIT 率均超市场预期，收入指引持续上调，萨洛蒙、始祖鸟 等核心品牌及亚太、中国区域增速尤为突出；昂跑 3Q25 亚太地区净销售额增 速高达 109.2%。龙头企业的高增长与盈利扩张，印证了户外行业的高景气度。 国内户外市场正处于高速成长期，2019-2024 年高性能户外服饰市场 CAGR 达 13.8%，2025 年前三季度线上增速持续优于服装大盘。尽管中国户外运动参与 人数超 4 亿，但参与率仍低于欧美成熟市场，增长潜力充足。行业竞争格局 分散，高端市场由国际品牌主导，专业国产品牌凭借功能优势、高性价比或 渠道创新在中端市场突围， ...

盈利预测与投资建议 智通财经APP获悉，东方证券发布研报称，维持安踏体育(02020)"买入"评级和目标价112.89港币，其联 营企业Amer Sports, Inc(亚玛芬体育)三季度业绩优异，公司旗下Fila、迪桑特、可隆等品牌在双十一表现强 劲，增长动力充足，体现了公司多品牌全球化的运营能力。 东方证券主要观点如下： 业绩表现 公司联营企业Amer(公司是其第一大股东)近日公布25年第三季度的经营业绩，营收同比增长30%，营业 利润同比增长22%，整体超过之前市场的预计。第三季度亚玛芬在全球四大区域市场均实现双位数营收 增长。其中，亚玛芬大中华区实现营收同比增长47%。伴随三季报，Amer同时上调25年全年的收入增 速由之前的20%-21%至23%-24%。该行认为Amer优异的三季报再次展现了公司收购其以后在全球化、 多品牌方面优秀的运营能力(除了始祖鸟，Amer旗下的萨洛蒙和威尔胜也开始焕发强劲的增长潜能)，同 时也部分反映之前的烟花事件对实际的销售影响相对有限。从财务角度，Amer业绩优异为安踏公司投 资收益提供了良好的保障。 Fila保持稳健增长，以迪桑特和可隆为首的其他品牌有望延续高增态势， ...

Core Viewpoint - The "fireworks show" incident involving the brand Arc'teryx has significantly impacted the stock prices of its parent company Anta Sports and its major shareholder Amer Sports, leading to substantial market value losses and raising concerns about brand image and marketing strategies [1][2]. Group 1: Stock Market Impact - On September 22, Anta Sports' stock opened down 4.6%, with an intraday drop exceeding 7%, resulting in a market value loss of 5.8 billion HKD by the end of trading [1]. - Amer Sports, listed on the NYSE and owned primarily by Anta Sports, saw its stock drop over 11% in pre-market trading on the same day [1]. Group 2: Brand Image and Marketing Concerns - The incident has led to negative public sentiment, with the China Advertising Association criticizing the brand for potentially harming the environment under the guise of creative marketing [1]. - Industry analysts suggest that the brand's image and popularity have been adversely affected, indicating that mere public relations efforts will not suffice to mitigate the damage; substantial actions are required [2]. Group 3: Financial Performance and Market Trends - The technical apparel segment of Amer Sports, which includes Arc'teryx, reported second-quarter revenues of approximately 509 million USD, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 24.94%, but a noticeable decline from previous quarters' growth rates of 30.08% and 35.45% [2]. - Analysts highlight that the high-end sportswear market is experiencing a slowdown in growth, suggesting that the outdoor market may not sustain its previous high growth rates due to economic and competitive pressures [2]. Group 4: Strategic Reflections - There are calls for Anta Sports to reconsider its aggressive acquisition strategy, questioning the sustainability of growth achieved through external acquisitions while the core brand management remains average [3].

Core Viewpoint - The parent company of Arc'teryx, Amer Sports, experienced a nearly 12% drop in pre-market trading, with shares priced at $33, following a controversy related to an event in the Himalayas involving artist Cai Guoqiang [1] Company Summary - Arc'teryx, a leading outdoor brand, was founded in Vancouver, Canada in 1989 and was acquired by a consortium led by Anta Group in 2019. It is currently owned by Finnish company Amer Sports, which also owns brands like Salomon and Wilson [1] - On September 21, Arc'teryx issued an apology via its official Weibo account, promising to cooperate with government oversight and the artist team to review the environmental impact of the project, and to engage a third-party environmental organization for assessment [1]

Core Viewpoint - Amer Sports has raised its Q3 2025 revenue guidance, now expecting over 20% year-on-year growth, compared to the previous forecast of approximately 20% growth [1] - The adjusted operating profit margin is anticipated to reach or exceed the upper end of the previous guidance range of 12%-13% [1] Group 1 - The CEO of Amer Sports, James Zheng, indicated that strong performance in Q3 is expected to be driven by Salomon and Arc'teryx brands [1]

Core Viewpoint - Anta Group is committed to a global strategy that emphasizes local market adaptation while maintaining brand identity, aiming to open 1,000 stores in Southeast Asia over the next three years [2][3]. Group 1: Global Strategy and Market Expansion - Anta Group has established its Southeast Asia headquarters in Singapore, using it as a base to strengthen market advantages and expand into South Asia, Australia, and New Zealand [3]. - The company employs a direct-to-consumer (DTC) approach, utilizing a "single platform, multiple brands, all-channel" model to operate various brands, including Anta, Fila, Descente, Salomon, and Wilson [3][4]. - In Southeast Asia, Anta Group is leveraging sports resources by collaborating with local sports organizations to host events and create job opportunities, with over 400 local positions created at the Singapore headquarters [3]. Group 2: Financial Performance and Growth - Anta's revenue in the Southeast Asian market is projected to grow nearly 100% year-on-year by the first half of 2025, while overseas business revenue has increased by over 150% due to new operations in the U.S. and the Middle East [5]. - The company has adopted a strategy of acquiring high-end brands to penetrate competitive markets in Europe and North America, establishing a strong global brand image from the outset [5][6]. Group 3: Strategic Focus and Future Outlook - Anta Group maintains a strategic focus on "single focus, multiple brands, globalization," aiming to meet diverse consumer needs across various categories and scenarios [6]. - The global sports goods market presents significant growth potential for Anta's multi-brand strategy, which is expected to drive long-term performance and open up broader premium pricing opportunities [6].

Core Viewpoint - Anta Group announced its goal to implement a thousand-store plan for the Anta brand in Southeast Asia over the next three years, aiming for nearly double year-on-year revenue growth by the first half of 2025 [1] Group 1: Globalization Strategy - Anta Group's globalization process is divided into three phases: establishing international brand presence in China, expanding global brand operations, and promoting Chinese brands globally [1] - The company is currently focused on the third phase of its globalization strategy [1] Group 2: Southeast Asia Operations - Anta Group has established its Southeast Asia headquarters in Singapore to strengthen its market position and plans to expand into South Asia, Australia, and New Zealand [1] - The company employs a "single platform, multiple brands, all-channel" model to operate various brands under Anta Group and Amer Sports, including Anta, Fila, Descente, Salomon, and Wilson [1] - This model aims to create a seamless online and offline sales ecosystem for each brand [1]

Core Viewpoint - Anta Group's subsidiary Amer Sports reported a significant increase in net profit for the first half of 2025, exceeding market expectations with a year-on-year growth of 3047.06% [1] Financial Performance - Amer Sports' revenue increased by 23.46% from approximately $2.194 billion in the same period last year to $2.708 billion (approximately 19.457 billion RMB) [1] - The net profit for the first half of 2025 reached $161 million (approximately 1.157 billion RMB), a substantial increase from $5.1 million in the previous year [1] Market Analysis - In the second quarter, Amer Sports' revenue from the China market surpassed that of North America, achieving $410 million [1] - The Asia-Pacific region, excluding China, saw a revenue growth of 45%, leading the global market [1] - The synergistic effect of Amer Sports' brand matrix is being realized, with Salomon's growth outpacing Arc'teryx, becoming a new growth engine for the group [1] Future Outlook - Based on the strong performance in the first half of the year, Amer Sports has raised its full-year performance guidance, expecting a revenue growth of 20% to 21% for the fiscal year 2025 [1]

Core Viewpoint - The potential sale of Puma shares by the Pinault family is being evaluated, with interest from Chinese sports brands like Anta and Li Ning, as well as American companies and Middle Eastern sovereign wealth funds [1][2] Group 1: Puma's Financial Performance - In 2023, Puma's sales increased by 6.6% year-on-year to €8.6017 billion, but net profit fell by 13.7% to €304.9 million [5] - For 2024, sales are projected to grow by 4.4% to €8.82 billion, while net profit is expected to decline by 7.6% to €282 million [5] - In Q2 2025, Puma's sales dropped by 2.0% year-on-year to €1.9422 billion, with declines in the EMEA and Americas regions [5][6] Group 2: Li Ning's Position - Li Ning reported a 3.3% increase in revenue to ¥14.82 billion in the first half of the year, but net profit decreased by 11.0% to ¥1.74 billion [8] - The company acknowledges challenges in offline customer traffic and competitive pressures in the sports brand sector [8][9] - Li Ning's strategy focuses on targeted investments and strict cost control, with an emphasis on managing inventory effectively [9] Group 3: Anta's Acquisition Strategy - Anta has a history of successful acquisitions, including FILA and Amer Sports, and continues to pursue a multi-brand strategy [11][12] - In 2024, Anta's revenue grew by 13.6% to ¥70.826 billion, with Amer Sports contributing significantly to this growth [12] - Anta's systematic advantages in retail and supply chain management have led to successful brand performance, particularly for the Arc'teryx brand [14][15] Group 4: Competitive Landscape - The competitive environment for sports brands is intensifying, with both Anta and Li Ning facing challenges in maintaining market share [8][18] - Anta's FILA brand is experiencing fluctuations in performance, with sales declining in certain segments [18] - The potential acquisition of Puma may not align with Anta's strategic interests due to competition with the FILA brand [17][18]

Group 1: Kering's Credit Outlook - S&P Global Ratings downgraded Kering's credit outlook from stable to negative, currently rated at BBB+ due to significant sales decline in its core brand Gucci [1] - Kering's overall revenue for the first half of the year was €7.587 billion, a 16% year-over-year decrease, with net profit plummeting 46% to €474 million [1] - Kering's management is undergoing changes, with new CEO Luca de Meo planning to restructure the company and focus on potential brands like Balenciaga while accelerating product and creative updates for Gucci [1] Group 2: Tapestry's Performance - Tapestry reported a revenue increase of 8.3% year-over-year to $1.723 billion for Q4 of fiscal year 2025, exceeding analyst expectations [2] - The core brand Coach saw a revenue growth of 14.3%, while Kate Spade experienced a revenue decline of 13% in Q4 and a 10% drop for the entire year [2] - Tapestry anticipates an additional cost of approximately $160 million due to tariffs, which negatively impacted its stock price despite strong financial results [2] Group 3: Valentino's CEO Departure - Jacopo Venturini, CEO of Valentino, resigned for personal reasons after a five-year tenure, marking his third departure from the company [3] - Valentino's financial performance is under pressure, with a projected 2% decline in sales to €1.31 billion and a 22% drop in core operating profit to €246 million for 2024 [3] - The departure of Venturini raises concerns about the potential impact on creative director Alessandro Michele, who previously worked with him at Gucci [3] Group 4: Amer Sports Growth - Amer Sports, the parent company of Arc'teryx, is experiencing strong growth, driven by the ongoing outdoor trend [4] - UBS analysts expect Amer Sports to continue exceeding revenue expectations in Q2, maintaining a buy rating and raising the target price from around $37 to $50 [5] - Amer Sports has seen a remarkable 224% return on investment over the past year, with several investment firms maintaining positive ratings due to the growth potential of brands like Arc'teryx and Salomon [5]