近期，国泰基金、招商基金、汇丰晋信基金、长城基金等多家公募机构召开了2026年度策略会，多位基 金经理围绕AI科技、消费、创新药等热门板块的后续投资机遇展开深度探讨。 展望2026年，有业内人士表示，市场值得乐观期待，上涨动力或将从单一的估值驱动逐渐转向"盈利 +估值"双重驱动。2026年作为"十五五"开局之年，相关产业政策及宏观经济支持政策值得期待。明年上 市公司整体业绩有望进一步改善，结构性亮点大概率增多，有利于提高市场风险偏好。当前A股自由流 通市值与居民存款的比值仍然处于相对较低的水平，股票市场或迎来更多新增资金。此外，当前市场估 值结构较为健康，并未出现整体过热的情况。 企业整体业绩大概率提升 从宏观层面来看，招商基金研究部首席经济学家李湛认为，中国经济增长模式逐渐转向创新驱动，基建 和高技术产业拉动经济增长。权益方面，市场目前开启了一轮估值修复与资产轮动逻辑驱动的行情。综 合来看，2026年消费有望缓慢抬升，出口有韧性，商品价格温和走高，进而带动名义GDP上行，企业业 绩或持续修复，这将成为市场的基本面支撑。A股行情或逐渐过渡至公司业绩支撑的"缓而慢"的格局。 国泰基金宏观策略分析师杨轶婷表示，基 ...

以下文章来源于妙投APP ，作者丁萍 妙投APP . 虎嗅旗下二级市场投研服务品牌，为您提供精选上市公司价值拆解，热门赛道产业链梳理 出品 | 妙投APP 作者 | 丁萍 编辑 | 关雪菁 头图 | AI生图 今年债市整体的性价比很低，超长期国债尤为明显。即便做波段，胜算也相对有限。近期超长债持 续走弱，价格不断回调。即便是今年不看好国债的我，也开始关注其中出现的一些阶段性机会。 那么，超长期国债是什么？ 简单来说，就是到期年限在20年及以上的国债，这类国债主要由保险、养老金等长期资金进行配 置。普通投资者较为常见的参与方式，是场内的30年期国债ETF （511090） 。 为什么很多普通者会选择30年国债ETF？主要因为它的弹性大。 期限越长，国债价格对利率变化越 敏感 。当利率处于趋势性下行阶段时，这种高久期特征往往能够被充分放大。 2024年就是典型的例子。这一年，30年期国债ETF （511090） 收涨了23.21%，收益率相当可观。 进入今年年初，超长债虽然延续了约两个月的债牛行情，但随后逐步进入回调通道，近期跌幅尤为 明显。 从11月初至12月8日，30年期国债ETF （511090） 累计下跌 ...

证券研究报告 | 2025年12月14日 超长债周报 中央经济工作会议召开，超长债波动剧烈 一级发行：上周超长债发行量激增。和上上周相比，超长债总发行量大 幅上升。 成交量：上周超长债交投非常活跃。上周超长债交投活跃度小幅回落。 收益率：上周中央经济工作会议和政治局会议召开，提出要坚持稳中求进、 提质增效，发挥存量政策和增量政策集成效应，加大逆周期和跨周期调节力 度，提升宏观经济治理效能，政策力度总体低于市场预期，债市触底反弹， 但是周五市场再次担心超长债供给 30 年国债涨幅快速回吐。全周来看，债 市大幅波动，总体略微回暖。 利差分析：上周超长债期限利差走平，绝对水平偏低。上周超长债品种利差 走阔，绝对水平偏低。 核心观点 固定收益周报 超长债复盘：上周中央经济工作会议和政治局会议召开，提出要坚持稳 中求进、提质增效，发挥存量政策和增量政策集成效应，加大逆周期和 跨周期调节力度，提升宏观经济治理效能，政策力度总体低于市场预期， 债市触底反弹，但是周五市场再次担心超长债供给 30 年国债涨幅快速 回吐。全周来看，债市大幅波动，总体略微回暖。成交方面，上周超长 债交投活跃度小幅回落，交投非常活跃。利差方面，上周 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views - Last week, after the release of May economic data, with the year-on-year growth rate of social consumption reaching 6.4% and the estimated monthly GDP at 5.0%, and the tightening of the capital market, bond yields continued to decline, and non-active ultra-long bonds rose significantly. The trading activity of ultra-long bonds increased slightly, and the term spread remained flat while the variety spread widened [1][3][11]. - As of June 20, the spread between 30-year treasury bonds and 10-year treasury bonds was 20BP, at a historically low level. The May economic data showed resilience, with an estimated GDP growth rate of about 5.0%, a 0.1% decline from April but still higher than the annual target. With deflation risks, a decline in exports, a negative month-on-month change in housing prices, and a decrease in capital interest rates, the bond market sentiment improved. It is expected that the bond market is more likely to continue rising in the short term, but the term spread protection is limited [2]. - As of June 20, the spread between 20-year CDB bonds and 20-year treasury bonds was 4BP, at a historically extremely low level. Similar to the 30-year treasury bonds, considering the economic situation and market conditions, the bond market is expected to rise in the short term, but the variety spread protection is limited [3]. Summary by Directory Weekly Review Ultra-long Bond Review - After the release of May economic data, with the year-on-year growth rate of social consumption reaching 6.4% and the estimated monthly GDP at 5.0%, and the tightening of the capital market, bond yields continued to decline, and non-active ultra-long bonds rose significantly. The trading activity of ultra-long bonds increased slightly and was quite active. The term spread remained flat, and the variety spread widened [1][11]. Ultra-long Bond Investment Outlook - **30-year Treasury Bonds**: As of June 20, the spread between 30-year and 10-year treasury bonds was 20BP, at a historically low level. The May economic data showed resilience, with an estimated GDP growth rate of about 5.0%, a 0.1% decline from April but still higher than the annual target. With deflation risks, a decline in exports, a negative month-on-month change in housing prices, and a decrease in capital interest rates, the bond market sentiment improved. It is expected that the bond market is more likely to continue rising in the short term, but the term spread protection is limited [2][12]. - **20-year CDB Bonds**: As of June 20, the spread between 20-year CDB bonds and 20-year treasury bonds was 4BP, at a historically extremely low level. Similar to the 30-year treasury bonds, considering the economic situation and market conditions, the bond market is expected to rise in the short term, but the variety spread protection is limited [3][13]. Ultra-long Bond Basic Overview - The balance of outstanding ultra-long bonds exceeded 21.6 trillion. As of May 31, the total amount of ultra-long bonds with a remaining term of over 14 years was 216,823 billion (excluding asset-backed securities and project revenue notes), accounting for 14.4% of the total bond balance. Local government bonds and treasury bonds were the main varieties. By variety, treasury bonds accounted for 26.1%, local government bonds 67.8%, policy financial bonds 2.1%, government agency bonds 2.0%, commercial bank subordinated bonds 0.2%, corporate bonds 0.5%, enterprise bonds 0.1%, medium-term notes 1.2%, private bonds 0.0%, and directional instruments 0.0%. By remaining term, the 14 - 18-year (inclusive) category accounted for 26.7%, the 18 - 25-year (inclusive) 26.9%, the 25 - 35-year (inclusive) 40.3%, and over 35 years 6.2% [14]. Primary Market Weekly Issuance - Last week (June 16 - 20, 2025), the issuance of ultra-long bonds was relatively small, with a total issuance of 1,147 billion yuan. Compared with the week before last, the total issuance of ultra-long bonds increased significantly. By variety, treasury bonds accounted for 500 billion, local government bonds 505 billion, policy bank bonds 0 billion, government-supported agency bonds 0 billion, medium-term notes 30 billion, corporate bonds 113 billion, directional instruments 0 billion, enterprise bonds 0 billion, and bank subordinated bonds 0 billion. By term, 149 billion were issued with a term of 15 years, 684 billion with 20 years, 315 billion with 30 years, and 0 billion with 50 years [19]. This Week's Pending Issuance - The announced issuance plan for ultra-long bonds this week totals 3,663 billion. By variety, ultra-long treasury bonds account for 710 billion, ultra-long local government bonds 2,788 billion, ultra-long corporate bonds 0 billion, and ultra-long medium-term notes 165 billion [25]. Secondary Market Trading Volume - Last week, the trading of ultra-long bonds was quite active, with a trading volume of 11,298 billion, accounting for 11.0% of the total bond trading volume. By variety, the trading volume of ultra-long treasury bonds was 7,764 billion, accounting for 29.8% of the total treasury bond trading volume; ultra-long local bonds 2,799 billion, accounting for 51.4% of the total local bond trading volume; ultra-long policy financial bonds 103 billion, accounting for 0.3% of the total policy financial bond trading volume; and ultra-long government agency bonds 89 billion, accounting for 78.8% of the total government agency bond trading volume. The trading activity of ultra-long bonds increased slightly compared with the week before last, with an increase of 2,330 billion in trading volume and a 0.1% increase in the proportion. Among them, the trading volume of ultra-long treasury bonds increased by 1,474 billion, but the proportion decreased by 6.3%; the trading volume of ultra-long local bonds increased by 388 billion, and the proportion increased by 3.5%; the trading volume of ultra-long policy financial bonds decreased by 5 billion, and the proportion decreased by 0.1%; the trading volume of ultra-long government agency bonds increased by 66 billion, and the proportion increased by 66.2% [28]. Yield - After the release of May economic data, with the year-on-year growth rate of social consumption reaching 6.4% and the estimated monthly GDP at 5.0%, and the tightening of the capital market, bond yields continued to decline. For treasury bonds, the yields of 15-year, 20-year, 30-year, and 50-year bonds changed by -3BP, -5BP, -1BP, and -5BP to 1.78%, 1.87%, 1.84%, and 1.95% respectively. For CDB bonds, the yields of 15-year, 20-year, 30-year, and 50-year bonds changed by -5BP, -6BP, -1BP, and -5BP to 1.86%, 1.90%, 2.02%, and 2.19% respectively. For local bonds, the yields of 15-year, 20-year, and 30-year bonds changed by -5BP, -4BP, and -4BP to 1.98%, 2.03%, and 2.03% respectively. For railway bonds, the yields of 15-year, 20-year, and 30-year bonds changed by -5BP, -4BP, and -4BP to 1.92%, 1.95%, and 2.05% respectively. For representative individual bonds, the yield of the 30-year treasury bond active bond 24 Special Treasury Bond 06 changed by -2BP to 1.88%, and the yield of the 20-year CDB bond active bond 21 CDB 20 changed by -5BP to 1.89% [44][45]. Spread Analysis - **Term Spread**: Last week, the term spread of ultra-long bonds remained flat, and the absolute level was low. The spread between the benchmark 30-year and 10-year treasury bonds was 20BP, unchanged from the week before last, at the 4% percentile since 2010 [53]. - **Variety Spread**: Last week, the variety spread of ultra-long bonds widened, and the absolute level was low. The spread between the benchmark 20-year CDB bonds and treasury bonds was 4BP, and the spread between 20-year railway bonds and treasury bonds was 9BP, with a 0BP and 1BP change from the week before last respectively, at the 6% and 5% percentiles since 2010 [54]. 30-year Treasury Bond Futures - Last week, the main 30-year treasury bond futures contract TL2509 closed at 121.32 yuan, an increase of 0.68%. The total trading volume was 327,300 lots (5,583 lots), and the open interest was 137,700 lots (13,009 lots). The trading volume and open interest increased slightly compared with the week before last [60].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Last week, the central bank announced in advance a 1 - trillion - yuan outright reverse repurchase operation, leading to a loose funding situation. However, the progress of the trade - war negotiation remained unclear, resulting in a slight increase in the bond market and also a small rise in ultra - long bonds. The trading activity of ultra - long bonds decreased slightly last week but was still relatively active. The term spread and variety spread of ultra - long bonds narrowed [1][3][11][41]. - For the 30 - year treasury bond, as of June 6, the spread between the 30 - year and 10 - year treasury bonds was 22BP, at a historically low level. In April, the economy showed resilience, with the estimated GDP year - on - year growth rate at about 4.1%, down 0.8% from March but still higher than the annual economic growth target. The CPI in April was - 0.1% and PPI was - 2.7%, indicating obvious deflation risks. With the recent phased easing of Sino - US trade frictions, investors' pessimistic expectations have dissipated. The short - term focus will return to China's second - quarter economic data. It is expected that as the policy support effect weakens, the probability of a decline in bond yields is greater. However, the current term spread of the 30 - year treasury bond is still low, with limited term spread protection [2][12]. - For the 20 - year CDB bond, as of June 6, the spread between the 20 - year CDB bond and the 20 - year treasury bond was 1BP, at a historically extremely low level. The economic situation in April was similar to that of the 30 - year treasury bond analysis. It is also expected that bond yields will likely decline as the policy support effect weakens. But the current variety spread of the 20 - year CDB bond is still low, with limited variety spread protection [3][13]. 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs 3.1 Weekly Review 3.1.1 Ultra - long Bond Review - The central bank's pre - announced 1 - trillion - yuan outright reverse repurchase operation led to a loose funding situation. With unclear trade - war negotiation progress, the bond market and ultra - long bonds rose slightly. The trading activity of ultra - long bonds decreased slightly but was still relatively active. The term spread and variety spread of ultra - long bonds narrowed [1][11]. 3.1.2 Ultra - long Bond Investment Outlook - **30 - year Treasury Bond**: The spread between the 30 - year and 10 - year treasury bonds was 22BP as of June 6, at a low historical level. Economic data in April showed resilience, with deflation risks. With the easing of trade frictions, the short - term focus will be on second - quarter economic data. Bond yields are likely to decline as policy support weakens, but the term spread protection is limited [2][12]. - **20 - year CDB Bond**: The spread between the 20 - year CDB bond and the 20 - year treasury bond was 1BP as of June 6, at an extremely low historical level. Similar to the 30 - year treasury bond situation, bond yields are likely to decline, but the variety spread protection is limited [3][13]. 3.1.3 Ultra - long Bond Basic Overview - The balance of outstanding ultra - long bonds exceeded 21.6 trillion yuan. As of May 31, the total amount of ultra - long bonds with a remaining maturity of over 14 years was 216,823 billion yuan, accounting for 14.4% of the total bond balance. Local government bonds and treasury bonds were the main varieties. By variety, treasury bonds accounted for 26.1%, local government bonds 67.8%, etc. By remaining maturity, the 30 - year variety had the highest proportion [14]. 3.2 Primary Market 3.2.1 Weekly Issuance - Last week (from May 26 to May 30, 2025), the issuance volume of ultra - long bonds was relatively small, totaling 1,091 billion yuan, a slight decrease compared with the week before last. By variety, treasury bonds were 710 billion yuan, local government bonds 371 billion yuan, etc. By term, 15 - year bonds were 11 billion yuan, 20 - year bonds 119 billion yuan, and 30 - year bonds 961 billion yuan [19]. 3.2.2 This Week's Upcoming Issuance - The announced ultra - long bond issuance plan for this week is 306 billion yuan in total, all of which are ultra - long local government bonds [23]. 3.3 Secondary Market 3.3.1 Trading Volume - Last week, the trading of ultra - long bonds was relatively active, with a trading volume of 4,687 billion yuan, accounting for 9.7% of the total bond trading volume. By variety, the trading volume of ultra - long treasury bonds was 3,269 billion yuan, accounting for 29.8% of the total treasury bond trading volume; that of ultra - long local bonds was 1,302 billion yuan, accounting for 49.5% of the total local bond trading volume, etc. The trading activity of ultra - long bonds decreased slightly last week. Compared with the week before last, the trading volume and proportion of ultra - long bonds decreased [25]. 3.3.2 Yield - Due to the pre - announced 1 - trillion - yuan outright reverse repurchase operation and unclear trade - war negotiation progress, the bond market and ultra - long bonds rose slightly. The yields of 15 - year, 20 - year, 30 - year, and 50 - year treasury bonds, CDB bonds, local bonds, and railway bonds all changed to different extents [41]. 3.3.3 Spread Analysis - **Term Spread**: The term spread of ultra - long bonds narrowed last week, and the absolute level was low. The spread between the 30 - year and 10 - year treasury bonds was 22BP, down 1BP from the week before last, at the 6% percentile since 2010 [49]. - **Variety Spread**: The variety spread of ultra - long bonds narrowed last week, and the absolute level was low. The spread between the 20 - year CDB bond and the treasury bond was 1BP, and that between the 20 - year railway bond and the treasury bond was 5BP, down 1BP and 2BP respectively from the week before last, both at the 2% percentile since 2010 [50]. 3.4 30 - year Treasury Bond Futures - Last week, the main 30 - year treasury bond futures contract TL2509 closed at 119.78 yuan, an increase of 0.31%. The total trading volume was 284,800 lots (a decrease of 124,088 lots), and the open interest was 117,800 lots (an increase of 4,256 lots). The trading volume decreased significantly compared with the week before last, while the open interest increased slightly [55].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - Last week, the tariff storm continued to intensify. China introduced countermeasures, and the US suspended tariffs for 90 days on countries that did not retaliate. With domestic liquidity remaining loose, the bond market opened higher and fluctuated, and ultra-long bonds continued to rise significantly. The trading activity of ultra-long bonds increased slightly last week, and trading was quite active. The term spread of ultra-long bonds widened, while the variety spread narrowed [1][3][11][39]. - As of April 11, the spread between 30-year and 10-year treasury bonds was 21BP, at a historically low level. The domestic economy started well this year, with the estimated monthly GDP from January to February at 5.1%, higher than the 2025 annual economic target of 5%. In March, CPI was -0.1%, indicating obvious deflation risks. Considering the fundamental data, the economy is still at the bottom, and the probability of the central bank tightening monetary policy is low. Recently, global trade frictions have intensified, leading to turmoil in global capital markets and increasing downward pressure on the global economy. Short-term risk aversion is expected to remain strong, and the bond market will fluctuate with an upward bias. However, the current term spread of 30-year treasury bonds is extremely low, providing limited protection [2][12]. - As of April 11, the spread between 20-year CDB bonds and 20-year treasury bonds was 2BP, at a historically extremely low level. The domestic economy started well this year, with the estimated monthly GDP from January to February at 5.1%, higher than the 2025 annual economic target of 5%. In March, CPI was -0.1%, indicating obvious deflation risks. Considering the fundamental data, the economy is still at the bottom, and the probability of the central bank tightening monetary policy is low. Recently, global trade frictions have intensified, leading to turmoil in global capital markets and increasing downward pressure on the global economy. Short-term risk aversion is expected to remain strong, and the bond market will fluctuate with an upward bias. However, the current variety spread of 20-year CDB bonds is extremely low, providing limited protection [3][13]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Weekly Review Ultra-long Bond Review - Last week, due to the tariff storm, China's countermeasures, and the US tariff suspension, with loose domestic liquidity, the bond market opened higher and fluctuated, and ultra-long bonds continued to rise significantly. Trading activity increased slightly, and the term spread widened while the variety spread narrowed [1][3][11]. Ultra-long Bond Investment Outlook - **30-year Treasury Bonds**: The spread is at a low level, the economy shows mixed signals, deflation risks exist, and the bond market is expected to be strong in the short term, but the term spread protection is limited [2][12]. - **20-year CDB Bonds**: The spread is extremely low, the economic situation is similar to that of 30-year treasury bonds, and the bond market outlook is also positive in the short term, but the variety spread protection is limited [3][13]. Ultra-long Bond Basic Overview - The balance of outstanding ultra-long bonds exceeds 20.7 trillion. As of March 31, the total amount of ultra-long bonds with a remaining maturity of over 14 years was 207,961 billion (excluding asset-backed securities and project revenue notes), accounting for 14.1% of the total bond balance. Local government bonds and treasury bonds are the main varieties. By remaining maturity, the 30-year variety has the highest proportion [14]. Primary Market Weekly Issuance - Last week, a relatively large amount of ultra-long bonds were issued, with a slight increase compared to the previous week. By variety, local government bonds and treasury bonds were the main issuers. By term, 30-year bonds had the largest issuance volume [19]. This Week's Pending Issuance - The announced issuance plan for this week totals 1,144 billion, mainly consisting of local government bonds [26]. Secondary Market Trading Volume - Last week, ultra-long bond trading was quite active, with an increase in trading volume and proportion compared to the previous week. Different bond varieties showed different trends in trading volume and proportion changes [28][29]. Yield - Last week, due to the tariff situation and domestic liquidity, ultra-long bond yields generally declined. Different types of bonds, such as treasury bonds, CDB bonds, local bonds, and railway bonds, all saw yield decreases [39]. Spread Analysis - **Term Spread**: It widened last week but remained at a relatively low absolute level [49]. - **Variety Spread**: It narrowed last week and was also at a low absolute level [52]. 30-year Treasury Bond Futures - Last week, the main 30-year treasury bond futures contract TL2506 closed at 119.53 yuan, up 0.66%. Trading volume increased significantly, while open interest decreased slightly [54].