超长债投资展望： 30 年国债：截至 2 月 13 日，30 年国债和 10 年国债利差为 45BP，处于 历史偏低水平。从国内经济数据来看，12 月经济下行压力有所缓解。我 们测算的 12 月国内 GDP 同比增速约 4.5%，增速较 11 月回升 0.4%。通 胀方面，1 月 CPI 为 0.2%，PPI 为-1.4%，通缩风险继续缓解。我们认为， 近期债市回调概率更大。一方面，2024 年四季度以来的经济企稳，主要 来自于中央加杠杆的托底。2025 年四季度无增发国债，短期政府托底经 济力度减弱，2025年四季度 GDP增速已经回落到了后疫情时代最低水平， 我国经济依然承压。同时从中央经济工作会议和政治局会议来看，2026 年党中央更加重视高质量发展，经济总量"稳中求进"的重要性次序有 所调降。另一方面，春节前后属于统计局数据真空期，当前利率绝对水 平偏低，A 股春季躁动量价齐升，预计股债跷跷板效应强化。近期 30-10 利差高位企稳，预计短期利差高位震荡为主。 证券研究报告 | 2026年02月23日 超长债周报 30-10 期限利差继续高位震荡 核心观点 固定收益周报 超长债复盘：1 月通胀继续回暖 ...

Core Viewpoint - The investment outlook for 2026 is optimistic, with expectations of a shift from valuation-driven to a dual driver of "profit + valuation" for market growth [1][2] Group 1: Overall Market Performance - The overall corporate performance is expected to improve in 2026, supported by a transition to an innovation-driven economic growth model, with infrastructure and high-tech industries driving growth [1][2] - The A-share market is anticipated to gradually shift towards a "slow and steady" performance supported by corporate earnings, with structural highlights likely to increase [1][2] - The current ratio of A-share free float market value to household deposits is relatively low, indicating potential for more new funds entering the stock market [1] Group 2: Sector-Specific Insights - The AI technology sector is expected to continue its growth, with long-term opportunities outweighing short-term risks, focusing on the AI industry chain's weak links [2] - The consumer sector is poised for a turning point, driven by rising resident income expectations and a recovery in consumer goods prices, with investment strategies focusing on leading companies with improved cash flow and competitive positioning [3] Group 3: Fixed Income and Bond Market - The macroeconomic environment in 2026 is expected to be stable, with fixed asset investment from state-owned sectors contributing to growth, and a focus on long-term bond investment opportunities following recent declines [4] - The bond market is anticipated to experience a balance between supply and demand, providing support for overall valuation in the convertible bond market [4]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the current state of the long-term bond market, particularly focusing on the performance and investment potential of ultra-long government bonds, highlighting the challenges and opportunities present in this segment [4][11]. Group 1: Ultra-Long Government Bonds - Ultra-long government bonds are defined as those with maturities of 20 years or more, primarily held by institutions like insurance companies and pension funds [5]. - The 30-year government bond ETF (511090) saw a significant increase of 23.21% in 2024, but has recently experienced a decline of approximately 4% from early November to December 8, with yields rising from 2.136% to 2.265% [7][9]. - The yield spread between the 30-year and 10-year government bonds has widened to about 41 basis points, indicating a divergence in performance [9]. Group 2: Market Dynamics and Influences - The decline in ultra-long bonds is attributed to several factors, including credit events in the real estate sector affecting market sentiment, leading to a reduction in duration by investors [17]. - Central bank operations and changes in policy expectations have also contributed to the volatility in the ultra-long bond market, with recent net bond purchases signaling uncertainty about future rate movements [19]. - Global trends, such as rising long-term interest rates in other markets, have further pressured China's ultra-long bond yields, making institutions more cautious [19][20]. Group 3: Investment Strategy and Outlook - The article suggests that the current environment presents a mismatch between market expectations and reality, with the 30-year bond yield having risen back above 2.2% due to slower-than-expected easing measures [21][22]. - Investors are advised to adopt a cautious approach, focusing on key policy signals and liquidity conditions, rather than aggressively pursuing directional bets [22][23]. - A specific yield level of 2.35% for the 30-year bond is highlighted as a potential entry point for investors looking to gradually accumulate positions [24].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the report industry investment rating is provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints - The bond market is likely to fluctuate. The economic stabilization since Q4 last year was mainly due to central government leverage - up. With no additional treasury bond issuance this Q4, government bond financing growth is expected to decline rapidly, and the domestic economy will still face pressure. The Party Central Committee will focus more on high - quality development in 2026, and the importance of "seeking progress while maintaining stability" in economic aggregate has been adjusted down. Also, the absolute interest rate level is low, the market is desensitized to positive factors, and investor sentiment is weak recently [2][3][13] - For the 30 - year treasury bond, as of December 12, the spread between the 30 - year and 10 - year treasury bonds was 41BP, at a historically low level. The 30 - 10 spread has widened again this week, close to the October high, and is expected to face short - term pressure [2][13] - For the 20 - year CDB bond, as of December 12, the spread between the 20 - year CDB bond and the 20 - year treasury bond was 15BP, at a historically extremely low position. Considering the short - term bond market fluctuations, the spread of the 20 - year CDB bond is expected to fluctuate within a narrow range [3][14] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Super - long Bond Review - Last week, the Central Economic Work Conference and the Political Bureau Meeting were held. The policy intensity was generally lower than market expectations, the bond market rebounded from the bottom, but on Friday, the market worried about super - long bond supply, and the gains of the 30 - year treasury bond were quickly reversed. Overall, the bond market fluctuated greatly and slightly recovered [1][4][12] - Last week, the trading activity of super - long bonds slightly declined but remained very active. The term spread of super - long bonds flattened, and the variety spread widened [1][12] 3.2 Super - long Bond Investment Outlook - **30 - year Treasury Bond**: The spread between the 30 - year and 10 - year treasury bonds was 41BP as of December 12, at a historically low level. The domestic economic data in October showed increased downward pressure, with the estimated GDP growth rate of about 4.2% year - on - year, a 1.1% decline from September. In November, CPI was 0.7% and PPI was - 2.2%, and the deflation risk was alleviated [2][13] - **20 - year CDB Bond**: The spread between the 20 - year CDB bond and the 20 - year treasury bond was 15BP as of December 12, at a historically extremely low position. Similar to the 30 - year treasury bond, the domestic economic situation in October was under pressure, and inflation data showed deflation risk alleviation [3][14] 3.3 Super - long Bond Basic Overview - As of November 30, the balance of remaining super - long bonds was 24.3 trillion, accounting for 15.1% of the total bond balance. Local government bonds and treasury bonds were the main varieties. By variety, treasury bonds accounted for 26.8%, local government bonds 67.8%, etc. By remaining term, the 30 - year variety had the highest proportion [15] 3.4 Primary Market - **Weekly Issuance**: Last week (December 8 - 12, 2025), the issuance of super - long bonds surged, with a total of 385.2 billion yuan. By variety, treasury bonds accounted for 350 billion, local government bonds 34.7 billion, etc. By term, 15 - year bonds accounted for 353.1 billion, 20 - year 22.4 billion, 30 - year 9.7 billion [21] - **This Week's Planned Issuance**: The announced super - long bond issuance plan this week is 2.03 billion yuan, all of which are super - long local government bonds [26] 3.5 Secondary Market - **Trading Volume**: Last week, super - long bonds were very actively traded, with a turnover of 1230.2 billion yuan, accounting for 14.1% of the total bond turnover. By variety, super - long treasury bonds accounted for 41.9% of the total treasury bond turnover, super - long local bonds 47.9% of the total local bond turnover, etc. The trading activity slightly declined, but the turnover increased by 95.6 billion yuan, and the proportion decreased by 0.5% [30] - **Yield**: After the Central Economic Work Conference and the Political Bureau Meeting last week, the bond market rebounded but then faced supply concerns. The yields of 15 - year, 20 - year, 30 - year, and 50 - year treasury bonds changed by - 1BP, - 2BP, - 1BP, and 0BP to 2.12%, 2.24%, 2.25%, and 2.46% respectively. Similar data is available for CDB bonds, local bonds, and railway bonds [41] - **Spread Analysis**: - **Term Spread**: Last week, the term spread of super - long bonds flattened, and the absolute level was low. The 30 - 10 year spread of benchmark treasury bonds was 41BP, unchanged from the previous week, at the 25% quantile since 2010 [51] - **Variety Spread**: Last week, the variety spread of super - long bonds widened, and the absolute level was low. The spread between the 20 - year CDB bond and the treasury bond was 15BP, and the spread between the 20 - year railway bond and the treasury bond was 22BP, changing by 1BP and 6BP respectively from the previous week, at the 13% and 17% quantiles since 2010 [52] 3.6 30 - year Treasury Bond Futures - Last week, the main contract TL2603 of the 30 - year treasury bond futures closed at 112.47 yuan, with a decline of 0.00%. The total trading volume was 684,300 lots (- 22,523 lots), and the open interest was 142,600 lots (- 2,964 lots). The trading volume and open interest slightly decreased compared to the previous week [56]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views - Last week, after the release of May economic data, with the year-on-year growth rate of social consumption reaching 6.4% and the estimated monthly GDP at 5.0%, and the tightening of the capital market, bond yields continued to decline, and non-active ultra-long bonds rose significantly. The trading activity of ultra-long bonds increased slightly, and the term spread remained flat while the variety spread widened [1][3][11]. - As of June 20, the spread between 30-year treasury bonds and 10-year treasury bonds was 20BP, at a historically low level. The May economic data showed resilience, with an estimated GDP growth rate of about 5.0%, a 0.1% decline from April but still higher than the annual target. With deflation risks, a decline in exports, a negative month-on-month change in housing prices, and a decrease in capital interest rates, the bond market sentiment improved. It is expected that the bond market is more likely to continue rising in the short term, but the term spread protection is limited [2]. - As of June 20, the spread between 20-year CDB bonds and 20-year treasury bonds was 4BP, at a historically extremely low level. Similar to the 30-year treasury bonds, considering the economic situation and market conditions, the bond market is expected to rise in the short term, but the variety spread protection is limited [3]. Summary by Directory Weekly Review Ultra-long Bond Review - After the release of May economic data, with the year-on-year growth rate of social consumption reaching 6.4% and the estimated monthly GDP at 5.0%, and the tightening of the capital market, bond yields continued to decline, and non-active ultra-long bonds rose significantly. The trading activity of ultra-long bonds increased slightly and was quite active. The term spread remained flat, and the variety spread widened [1][11]. Ultra-long Bond Investment Outlook - **30-year Treasury Bonds**: As of June 20, the spread between 30-year and 10-year treasury bonds was 20BP, at a historically low level. The May economic data showed resilience, with an estimated GDP growth rate of about 5.0%, a 0.1% decline from April but still higher than the annual target. With deflation risks, a decline in exports, a negative month-on-month change in housing prices, and a decrease in capital interest rates, the bond market sentiment improved. It is expected that the bond market is more likely to continue rising in the short term, but the term spread protection is limited [2][12]. - **20-year CDB Bonds**: As of June 20, the spread between 20-year CDB bonds and 20-year treasury bonds was 4BP, at a historically extremely low level. Similar to the 30-year treasury bonds, considering the economic situation and market conditions, the bond market is expected to rise in the short term, but the variety spread protection is limited [3][13]. Ultra-long Bond Basic Overview - The balance of outstanding ultra-long bonds exceeded 21.6 trillion. As of May 31, the total amount of ultra-long bonds with a remaining term of over 14 years was 216,823 billion (excluding asset-backed securities and project revenue notes), accounting for 14.4% of the total bond balance. Local government bonds and treasury bonds were the main varieties. By variety, treasury bonds accounted for 26.1%, local government bonds 67.8%, policy financial bonds 2.1%, government agency bonds 2.0%, commercial bank subordinated bonds 0.2%, corporate bonds 0.5%, enterprise bonds 0.1%, medium-term notes 1.2%, private bonds 0.0%, and directional instruments 0.0%. By remaining term, the 14 - 18-year (inclusive) category accounted for 26.7%, the 18 - 25-year (inclusive) 26.9%, the 25 - 35-year (inclusive) 40.3%, and over 35 years 6.2% [14]. Primary Market Weekly Issuance - Last week (June 16 - 20, 2025), the issuance of ultra-long bonds was relatively small, with a total issuance of 1,147 billion yuan. Compared with the week before last, the total issuance of ultra-long bonds increased significantly. By variety, treasury bonds accounted for 500 billion, local government bonds 505 billion, policy bank bonds 0 billion, government-supported agency bonds 0 billion, medium-term notes 30 billion, corporate bonds 113 billion, directional instruments 0 billion, enterprise bonds 0 billion, and bank subordinated bonds 0 billion. By term, 149 billion were issued with a term of 15 years, 684 billion with 20 years, 315 billion with 30 years, and 0 billion with 50 years [19]. This Week's Pending Issuance - The announced issuance plan for ultra-long bonds this week totals 3,663 billion. By variety, ultra-long treasury bonds account for 710 billion, ultra-long local government bonds 2,788 billion, ultra-long corporate bonds 0 billion, and ultra-long medium-term notes 165 billion [25]. Secondary Market Trading Volume - Last week, the trading of ultra-long bonds was quite active, with a trading volume of 11,298 billion, accounting for 11.0% of the total bond trading volume. By variety, the trading volume of ultra-long treasury bonds was 7,764 billion, accounting for 29.8% of the total treasury bond trading volume; ultra-long local bonds 2,799 billion, accounting for 51.4% of the total local bond trading volume; ultra-long policy financial bonds 103 billion, accounting for 0.3% of the total policy financial bond trading volume; and ultra-long government agency bonds 89 billion, accounting for 78.8% of the total government agency bond trading volume. The trading activity of ultra-long bonds increased slightly compared with the week before last, with an increase of 2,330 billion in trading volume and a 0.1% increase in the proportion. Among them, the trading volume of ultra-long treasury bonds increased by 1,474 billion, but the proportion decreased by 6.3%; the trading volume of ultra-long local bonds increased by 388 billion, and the proportion increased by 3.5%; the trading volume of ultra-long policy financial bonds decreased by 5 billion, and the proportion decreased by 0.1%; the trading volume of ultra-long government agency bonds increased by 66 billion, and the proportion increased by 66.2% [28]. Yield - After the release of May economic data, with the year-on-year growth rate of social consumption reaching 6.4% and the estimated monthly GDP at 5.0%, and the tightening of the capital market, bond yields continued to decline. For treasury bonds, the yields of 15-year, 20-year, 30-year, and 50-year bonds changed by -3BP, -5BP, -1BP, and -5BP to 1.78%, 1.87%, 1.84%, and 1.95% respectively. For CDB bonds, the yields of 15-year, 20-year, 30-year, and 50-year bonds changed by -5BP, -6BP, -1BP, and -5BP to 1.86%, 1.90%, 2.02%, and 2.19% respectively. For local bonds, the yields of 15-year, 20-year, and 30-year bonds changed by -5BP, -4BP, and -4BP to 1.98%, 2.03%, and 2.03% respectively. For railway bonds, the yields of 15-year, 20-year, and 30-year bonds changed by -5BP, -4BP, and -4BP to 1.92%, 1.95%, and 2.05% respectively. For representative individual bonds, the yield of the 30-year treasury bond active bond 24 Special Treasury Bond 06 changed by -2BP to 1.88%, and the yield of the 20-year CDB bond active bond 21 CDB 20 changed by -5BP to 1.89% [44][45]. Spread Analysis - **Term Spread**: Last week, the term spread of ultra-long bonds remained flat, and the absolute level was low. The spread between the benchmark 30-year and 10-year treasury bonds was 20BP, unchanged from the week before last, at the 4% percentile since 2010 [53]. - **Variety Spread**: Last week, the variety spread of ultra-long bonds widened, and the absolute level was low. The spread between the benchmark 20-year CDB bonds and treasury bonds was 4BP, and the spread between 20-year railway bonds and treasury bonds was 9BP, with a 0BP and 1BP change from the week before last respectively, at the 6% and 5% percentiles since 2010 [54]. 30-year Treasury Bond Futures - Last week, the main 30-year treasury bond futures contract TL2509 closed at 121.32 yuan, an increase of 0.68%. The total trading volume was 327,300 lots (5,583 lots), and the open interest was 137,700 lots (13,009 lots). The trading volume and open interest increased slightly compared with the week before last [60].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Last week, the central bank announced in advance a 1 - trillion - yuan outright reverse repurchase operation, leading to a loose funding situation. However, the progress of the trade - war negotiation remained unclear, resulting in a slight increase in the bond market and also a small rise in ultra - long bonds. The trading activity of ultra - long bonds decreased slightly last week but was still relatively active. The term spread and variety spread of ultra - long bonds narrowed [1][3][11][41]. - For the 30 - year treasury bond, as of June 6, the spread between the 30 - year and 10 - year treasury bonds was 22BP, at a historically low level. In April, the economy showed resilience, with the estimated GDP year - on - year growth rate at about 4.1%, down 0.8% from March but still higher than the annual economic growth target. The CPI in April was - 0.1% and PPI was - 2.7%, indicating obvious deflation risks. With the recent phased easing of Sino - US trade frictions, investors' pessimistic expectations have dissipated. The short - term focus will return to China's second - quarter economic data. It is expected that as the policy support effect weakens, the probability of a decline in bond yields is greater. However, the current term spread of the 30 - year treasury bond is still low, with limited term spread protection [2][12]. - For the 20 - year CDB bond, as of June 6, the spread between the 20 - year CDB bond and the 20 - year treasury bond was 1BP, at a historically extremely low level. The economic situation in April was similar to that of the 30 - year treasury bond analysis. It is also expected that bond yields will likely decline as the policy support effect weakens. But the current variety spread of the 20 - year CDB bond is still low, with limited variety spread protection [3][13]. 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs 3.1 Weekly Review 3.1.1 Ultra - long Bond Review - The central bank's pre - announced 1 - trillion - yuan outright reverse repurchase operation led to a loose funding situation. With unclear trade - war negotiation progress, the bond market and ultra - long bonds rose slightly. The trading activity of ultra - long bonds decreased slightly but was still relatively active. The term spread and variety spread of ultra - long bonds narrowed [1][11]. 3.1.2 Ultra - long Bond Investment Outlook - **30 - year Treasury Bond**: The spread between the 30 - year and 10 - year treasury bonds was 22BP as of June 6, at a low historical level. Economic data in April showed resilience, with deflation risks. With the easing of trade frictions, the short - term focus will be on second - quarter economic data. Bond yields are likely to decline as policy support weakens, but the term spread protection is limited [2][12]. - **20 - year CDB Bond**: The spread between the 20 - year CDB bond and the 20 - year treasury bond was 1BP as of June 6, at an extremely low historical level. Similar to the 30 - year treasury bond situation, bond yields are likely to decline, but the variety spread protection is limited [3][13]. 3.1.3 Ultra - long Bond Basic Overview - The balance of outstanding ultra - long bonds exceeded 21.6 trillion yuan. As of May 31, the total amount of ultra - long bonds with a remaining maturity of over 14 years was 216,823 billion yuan, accounting for 14.4% of the total bond balance. Local government bonds and treasury bonds were the main varieties. By variety, treasury bonds accounted for 26.1%, local government bonds 67.8%, etc. By remaining maturity, the 30 - year variety had the highest proportion [14]. 3.2 Primary Market 3.2.1 Weekly Issuance - Last week (from May 26 to May 30, 2025), the issuance volume of ultra - long bonds was relatively small, totaling 1,091 billion yuan, a slight decrease compared with the week before last. By variety, treasury bonds were 710 billion yuan, local government bonds 371 billion yuan, etc. By term, 15 - year bonds were 11 billion yuan, 20 - year bonds 119 billion yuan, and 30 - year bonds 961 billion yuan [19]. 3.2.2 This Week's Upcoming Issuance - The announced ultra - long bond issuance plan for this week is 306 billion yuan in total, all of which are ultra - long local government bonds [23]. 3.3 Secondary Market 3.3.1 Trading Volume - Last week, the trading of ultra - long bonds was relatively active, with a trading volume of 4,687 billion yuan, accounting for 9.7% of the total bond trading volume. By variety, the trading volume of ultra - long treasury bonds was 3,269 billion yuan, accounting for 29.8% of the total treasury bond trading volume; that of ultra - long local bonds was 1,302 billion yuan, accounting for 49.5% of the total local bond trading volume, etc. The trading activity of ultra - long bonds decreased slightly last week. Compared with the week before last, the trading volume and proportion of ultra - long bonds decreased [25]. 3.3.2 Yield - Due to the pre - announced 1 - trillion - yuan outright reverse repurchase operation and unclear trade - war negotiation progress, the bond market and ultra - long bonds rose slightly. The yields of 15 - year, 20 - year, 30 - year, and 50 - year treasury bonds, CDB bonds, local bonds, and railway bonds all changed to different extents [41]. 3.3.3 Spread Analysis - **Term Spread**: The term spread of ultra - long bonds narrowed last week, and the absolute level was low. The spread between the 30 - year and 10 - year treasury bonds was 22BP, down 1BP from the week before last, at the 6% percentile since 2010 [49]. - **Variety Spread**: The variety spread of ultra - long bonds narrowed last week, and the absolute level was low. The spread between the 20 - year CDB bond and the treasury bond was 1BP, and that between the 20 - year railway bond and the treasury bond was 5BP, down 1BP and 2BP respectively from the week before last, both at the 2% percentile since 2010 [50]. 3.4 30 - year Treasury Bond Futures - Last week, the main 30 - year treasury bond futures contract TL2509 closed at 119.78 yuan, an increase of 0.31%. The total trading volume was 284,800 lots (a decrease of 124,088 lots), and the open interest was 117,800 lots (an increase of 4,256 lots). The trading volume decreased significantly compared with the week before last, while the open interest increased slightly [55].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - Last week, the tariff storm continued to intensify. China introduced countermeasures, and the US suspended tariffs for 90 days on countries that did not retaliate. With domestic liquidity remaining loose, the bond market opened higher and fluctuated, and ultra-long bonds continued to rise significantly. The trading activity of ultra-long bonds increased slightly last week, and trading was quite active. The term spread of ultra-long bonds widened, while the variety spread narrowed [1][3][11][39]. - As of April 11, the spread between 30-year and 10-year treasury bonds was 21BP, at a historically low level. The domestic economy started well this year, with the estimated monthly GDP from January to February at 5.1%, higher than the 2025 annual economic target of 5%. In March, CPI was -0.1%, indicating obvious deflation risks. Considering the fundamental data, the economy is still at the bottom, and the probability of the central bank tightening monetary policy is low. Recently, global trade frictions have intensified, leading to turmoil in global capital markets and increasing downward pressure on the global economy. Short-term risk aversion is expected to remain strong, and the bond market will fluctuate with an upward bias. However, the current term spread of 30-year treasury bonds is extremely low, providing limited protection [2][12]. - As of April 11, the spread between 20-year CDB bonds and 20-year treasury bonds was 2BP, at a historically extremely low level. The domestic economy started well this year, with the estimated monthly GDP from January to February at 5.1%, higher than the 2025 annual economic target of 5%. In March, CPI was -0.1%, indicating obvious deflation risks. Considering the fundamental data, the economy is still at the bottom, and the probability of the central bank tightening monetary policy is low. Recently, global trade frictions have intensified, leading to turmoil in global capital markets and increasing downward pressure on the global economy. Short-term risk aversion is expected to remain strong, and the bond market will fluctuate with an upward bias. However, the current variety spread of 20-year CDB bonds is extremely low, providing limited protection [3][13]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Weekly Review Ultra-long Bond Review - Last week, due to the tariff storm, China's countermeasures, and the US tariff suspension, with loose domestic liquidity, the bond market opened higher and fluctuated, and ultra-long bonds continued to rise significantly. Trading activity increased slightly, and the term spread widened while the variety spread narrowed [1][3][11]. Ultra-long Bond Investment Outlook - **30-year Treasury Bonds**: The spread is at a low level, the economy shows mixed signals, deflation risks exist, and the bond market is expected to be strong in the short term, but the term spread protection is limited [2][12]. - **20-year CDB Bonds**: The spread is extremely low, the economic situation is similar to that of 30-year treasury bonds, and the bond market outlook is also positive in the short term, but the variety spread protection is limited [3][13]. Ultra-long Bond Basic Overview - The balance of outstanding ultra-long bonds exceeds 20.7 trillion. As of March 31, the total amount of ultra-long bonds with a remaining maturity of over 14 years was 207,961 billion (excluding asset-backed securities and project revenue notes), accounting for 14.1% of the total bond balance. Local government bonds and treasury bonds are the main varieties. By remaining maturity, the 30-year variety has the highest proportion [14]. Primary Market Weekly Issuance - Last week, a relatively large amount of ultra-long bonds were issued, with a slight increase compared to the previous week. By variety, local government bonds and treasury bonds were the main issuers. By term, 30-year bonds had the largest issuance volume [19]. This Week's Pending Issuance - The announced issuance plan for this week totals 1,144 billion, mainly consisting of local government bonds [26]. Secondary Market Trading Volume - Last week, ultra-long bond trading was quite active, with an increase in trading volume and proportion compared to the previous week. Different bond varieties showed different trends in trading volume and proportion changes [28][29]. Yield - Last week, due to the tariff situation and domestic liquidity, ultra-long bond yields generally declined. Different types of bonds, such as treasury bonds, CDB bonds, local bonds, and railway bonds, all saw yield decreases [39]. Spread Analysis - **Term Spread**: It widened last week but remained at a relatively low absolute level [49]. - **Variety Spread**: It narrowed last week and was also at a low absolute level [52]. 30-year Treasury Bond Futures - Last week, the main 30-year treasury bond futures contract TL2506 closed at 119.53 yuan, up 0.66%. Trading volume increased significantly, while open interest decreased slightly [54].