通讯业务海外客户全面突破，长期成长潜 力被低估 核心观点 盈利预测与投资建议 ⚫ 我们预测公司 25-27 年每股收益分别为 2.25/3.09/3.84 元（原 25/26 年预测分别为 2.42/2.95 元，参考下游客户销量变化、通讯业务海外放量、闻泰产品集成业务及莱 尼并表等因素调整盈利预测），根据可比公司 25 年 32 倍 PE 估值水平，对应目标价 为 72.00 元，维持给予买入评级。 风险提示 ⚫ 大客户占比较高风险、行业竞争加剧风险、中美贸易冲突加剧风险 公司主要财务信息 | | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业收入(百万元) | 231,905 | 268,795 | 361,270 | 475,850 | 544,985 | | 同比增长 (%) | 8.4% | 15.9% | 34.4% | 31.7% | 14.5% | | 营业利润(百万元) | 12,860 | 16,142 | 19,233 | 25,997 | 32,241 | | 同比增长 ...

Core Insights - The Chinese pan-technology sector is experiencing significant growth driven by AI computing power, with a clear differentiation among various segments and leading companies outperforming [1][2]. Industry Overview - The high demand for AI computing power is leading to a full-chain growth pattern from upstream infrastructure to downstream applications [2]. - The global semiconductor market reached $346 billion in the first half of 2025, showing an 18.9% year-on-year increase, with logic semiconductors growing by 37% [2]. - China's semiconductor market demonstrated resilience, with total investment down 9.8% year-on-year, a significant improvement from a 41.6% decline in the previous year [2]. Company Performance - Industrial Fulian reported a revenue of 360.8 billion yuan, a 35.6% increase, and a net profit of 12.11 billion yuan, up 38.6%, driven by AI server shipments [5]. - Cambrian-U achieved a revenue of 2.881 billion yuan, a staggering 4347.82% increase, and a net profit of 1.038 billion yuan, marking its first profitable half-year since its listing [6]. - Zhongji Xuchuang reported a revenue of 14.789 billion yuan, a 36.95% increase, and a net profit of 3.995 billion yuan, up 69.40%, benefiting from increased capital expenditure from key clients [7]. Market Trends - The light module market is expected to grow by 45% in 2024, driven by AI industry demand, with a forecast of 4.7 million units shipped in 2025 [3]. - The AI chip sector is seeing breakthroughs in performance and cost, with domestic products like Cambrian's chips showing competitive advantages [9][10]. - Traditional hardware companies like Hikvision and Luxshare Precision are adjusting their structures to find new growth points, with Hikvision's innovative business growing by 13.92% [8]. Policy and Technological Support - The Chinese government is implementing supportive policies, including the "Artificial Intelligence +" initiative, aiming for deep integration of AI across six key sectors by 2027 [3][10]. - The domestic semiconductor industry is increasing R&D investments to reduce reliance on imports, with breakthroughs in key materials and equipment expected to enhance competitiveness [10].

Core Viewpoint - The company reported a strong performance in the first half of 2025, with revenue of 124.5 billion and a year-on-year growth of 20.18%, while net profit reached 6.644 billion, growing by 23.13% [2][14]. Group 1: Financial Performance - The company's revenue for the first half of 2025 was 1245 billion, with a net profit of 66.44 billion, both exceeding initial expectations [2][14]. - The second quarter alone saw revenue of 627 billion, a year-on-year increase of 22.5% [2]. - The gross profit margin for the first half of 2025 was 11.61%, slightly down by 0.1 percentage points due to currency fluctuations and increased production costs [19][20]. Group 2: Business Segments - The consumer electronics segment generated 978 billion in revenue, growing by 14.3%, with strong performance from Apple-related products [3][4]. - The communications business experienced significant growth, with revenue of 111 billion, up 48.7%, driven by AI computing capabilities [5][6]. - The automotive segment saw remarkable growth, with revenue of 87 billion, increasing by 82.1%, supported by new projects and successful acquisitions [6][10]. Group 3: Future Outlook - The company anticipates a net profit range of 108.90 to 113.45 billion for the first three quarters of 2025, corresponding to a growth rate of 20-25% [8]. - The long-term growth drivers remain clear, with expectations for continued expansion in consumer electronics, communications, and automotive sectors [8][12]. - The company is well-positioned to leverage its global manufacturing advantages and customized services to enhance market competitiveness [8][18]. Group 4: Strategic Initiatives - The company is focusing on vertical integration and innovation in the ODM sector, aiming to enhance its product offerings across various applications [8][15]. - In the communications sector, the company is building a comprehensive technology matrix to support high-speed connectivity and AI applications [9][16]. - The automotive business is expected to achieve significant revenue growth, with plans to become a leading global supplier of automotive components [10][11].

Summary of Lixun Precision's Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: Lixun Precision - **Period**: First half of 2025 - **Revenue**: 594.44 billion CNY - **Net Profit**: 55.99 billion CNY - **Year-on-Year Growth**: Revenue up 12.9%, Net Profit up 12.9% [2][3] Key Financial Metrics - **Gross Margin**: 11.61%, down 0.1 percentage points [2][3] - **Operating Expense Ratio**: 6.68%, down 0.31 percentage points [2][3] - **Net Profit Margin**: 5.86%, up 0.3 percentage points [2][4] - **Net Cash Flow**: Outflow of 16.58 billion CNY [3][10] - **Debt Ratio**: 62.87%, up 0.71 percentage points [3][10] - **Capital Expenditure**: Over 9.5 billion CNY, focused on overseas expansion and new product lines [3][10] Business Segments Performance Consumer Electronics - **Revenue Growth**: 14.32% year-on-year [2][5] - **Strategy**: Vertical integration and scenario innovation to strengthen market position [5] Communication - **Revenue Growth**: 48.65% year-on-year in communication interconnect products and precision components [2][6] - **Product Development**: 224G high-speed cables in mass production, 448G in research, and 800G silicon photonic modules in mass production [6] Automotive - **Revenue Growth**: 82.07% year-on-year [2][7] - **Key Projects**: High-voltage wiring harnesses and smart cockpit products expected to enter mass production in 2025 [7][8] Strategic Initiatives - **Global Expansion**: Establishing production bases in Vietnam, Malaysia, and other countries to enhance flexibility and meet customer demands [3][9] - **Technological Innovation**: Focus on AI applications and smart manufacturing to improve operational efficiency and cost control [3][9][12] Future Outlook - **Growth Potential**: Plans to solidify leadership in consumer electronics while expanding communication and automotive sectors, similar to the growth seen in 2017 [3][12] - **AI Integration**: Continuous investment in AI technologies to enhance product offerings and market competitiveness [13][25] - **ODM Industry Expectations**: Aiming for innovation in product definitions and maintaining competitiveness in the ODM sector [21] Challenges and Responses - **Global Economic Environment**: Adapting to challenges posed by global economic conditions and supply chain restructuring [9][18] - **Tariff Impacts**: Preparedness for tariff changes, particularly in relation to Indian manufacturing [17][18] Additional Insights - **Integration of New Businesses**: Successful integration of new acquisitions, leading to improved operational efficiency and customer satisfaction [19][20] - **Focus on Customer Value**: Emphasis on maintaining high service standards across all customer segments, regardless of size [22] This summary encapsulates the key points from Lixun Precision's conference call, highlighting financial performance, business segment growth, strategic initiatives, and future outlook.

Group 1: Market Overview - A new wealth creation wave is emerging in the Chinese capital market, with the "A+H" listing model gaining popularity by 2025, leading many companies to wealth peaks [1] - As of the first half of 2025, 42 companies successfully listed on the Hong Kong stock market, with leading A-share companies like CATL and Haidilao raising over 100 billion HKD, accounting for 72% of the total fundraising in the Hong Kong market [1] Group 2: Company Profile - Luxshare Precision - Luxshare Precision, a leading player in the "fruit chain" with a market value exceeding 300 billion CNY, has submitted a listing application to the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, potentially becoming a major winner in the second half of 2025 [1] - The company has experienced significant growth since its A-share debut in 2010, with its market value increasing from 6.9 billion CNY to over 300 billion CNY, representing a more than 40-fold increase over the past decade [2] Group 3: Leadership and Personal Wealth - Founder Wang Laichun's personal wealth has surged alongside Luxshare Precision's market value, ranking 13th on the "2025 New Fortune 500 Wealth Creation List" with assets of 131.52 billion CNY [4] - Wang Laichun's journey from a factory worker at Foxconn to a successful entrepreneur highlights her resilience and strategic vision, which have been crucial to the company's success [4][5] Group 4: Business Strategy and Market Position - Luxshare Precision has established a strong position in the global smart terminal supply chain, leveraging its experience from Foxconn and focusing on building unique technological barriers [5] - The company has diversified its business by expanding into automotive electronics and communication sectors, with automotive electronics experiencing a year-on-year growth of 98.9% in Q1 2025 [6] - The successful listing on the Hong Kong market is expected to provide Luxshare Precision with more financing channels and broader development opportunities, supported by its strong performance and market advantages [6]

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese capital market is experiencing a surge in wealth creation opportunities, particularly through the "A+H" model, with significant IPO activities in Hong Kong driven by leading A-share companies [2][3]. Group 1: IPO Activities and Market Dynamics - By mid-2025, Hong Kong has seen 42 IPOs, with leading A-share companies like CATL and Haitian Flavoring raising over 100 billion HKD, accounting for 72% of the total fundraising in Hong Kong [3]. - The "A+H" model is becoming increasingly attractive for A-share companies, prompting firms like Luxshare Precision to pursue IPOs in Hong Kong [3][4]. - Luxshare Precision, a major player in the Apple supply chain, is expected to be one of the biggest winners in the Hong Kong IPO market in the second half of 2025 [3][4]. Group 2: Company Background and Growth - Luxshare Precision was founded by Wang Laichun, who transitioned from a factory worker at Foxconn to a successful entrepreneur, leveraging opportunities in the global smart terminal market [4][5]. - The company went public in 2010 with an initial market value of 6.9 billion RMB, and its stock price has since surged over 40 times, reflecting its strong performance in the smart manufacturing sector [4][8]. - In 2024, Luxshare Precision achieved a revenue of 268.8 billion RMB, with a year-on-year growth of 15.91%, and a net profit of 13.37 billion RMB, marking a 22.03% increase [13]. Group 3: Strategic Partnerships and Market Position - Luxshare Precision has established itself as a key player in the Apple supply chain, securing significant orders for products like AirPods, which have revolutionized the wireless earphone market [10][11]. - The company has diversified its client base, reducing its reliance on Apple, with non-Apple revenue accounting for 25% of its total income by 2025 [13]. - Luxshare Precision's automotive electronics and communication businesses have shown remarkable growth, with automotive electronics revenue increasing by 98.9% in early 2025 [13]. Group 4: Future Prospects and Wealth Creation - The upcoming IPO in Hong Kong is expected to further enhance Luxshare Precision's market position and potentially increase Wang Laichun's wealth, positioning her as a leading figure in the Chinese business landscape [14][15]. - The success of the IPO could lead to a new wave of wealth creation in the market, following the trend set by other leading A-share companies [14].

Group 1 - The company has completed the research and manufacturing of its 224G high-speed cable [1] - Samples of the 224G high-speed cable have been sent to Amphenol for trial [1]