经纬恒润（688326.SH）系列点评七 2025Q4 业绩超预期 商业航天全面布局 glmszqdatemark [盈利预测与财务指标 Table_Forcast] | 项目/年度 | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业收入（百万元） | 5,541 | 7,324 | 9,043 | 10,748 | | 增长率（%） | 18.5 | 32.2 | 23.5 | 18.9 | | 归属母公司股东净利润（百万元） | -550 | 94 | 416 | 651 | | 增长率（%） | -153.3 | 117.1 | 341.7 | 56.6 | | 每股收益（元） | -4.59 | 0.78 | 3.47 | 5.43 | | PE | / | 188 | 43 | 27 | | PB | 4.2 | 4.3 | 3.9 | 3.4 | 资料来源：Wind，国联民生证券研究所预测；（注：股价为 2026 年 1 月 27 日收盘价） 2026 年 01 月 28 日 | 推荐 | 维持评级 | | ...

经纬恒润（688326.SH）系列点评七 2025Q4 业绩超预期 商业航天全面布局 glmszqdatemark [盈利预测与财务指标 Table_Forcast] | 项目/年度 | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业收入（百万元） | 5,541 | 7,324 | 9,043 | 10,748 | | 增长率（%） | 18.5 | 32.2 | 23.5 | 18.9 | | 归属母公司股东净利润（百万元） | -550 | 94 | 416 | 651 | | 增长率（%） | -153.3 | 117.1 | 341.7 | 56.6 | | 每股收益（元） | -4.59 | 0.78 | 3.47 | 5.43 | | PE | / | 188 | 43 | 27 | | PB | 4.2 | 4.3 | 3.9 | 3.4 | 资料来源：Wind，国联民生证券研究所预测；（注：股价为 2026 年 1 月 27 日收盘价） 2026 年 01 月 28 日 | 推荐 | 维持评级 | | ...

答：公司围绕高阶智能驾驶所需的"域控制器+感知+传感器+安全合规"已持续布局，产品的智驾方案涵 盖低、中、高阶以满足客户多样性需求。随着L3准入放开、试点扩大，公司将积极配合主机厂与生态 伙伴推进面向法规与全生命周期安全要求的工程化落地。高阶智驾带来的域控制器、高性能计算平台及 感知类产品（如4D毫米波雷达、DMS等）单车价值量提升与量产项目加速导入，以及围绕功能安全、 信息安全、OT与测试验证等研发服务需求的同步增长都将赋能公司业绩提升，但具体贡献节奏仍取决 于客户车型的准入进度、试点推广范围及量产爬坡情况。 问：子公司润科通用在商业航天业务方面的进展有哪些？ 机构调研要点 问：我国首批L3级自动驾驶车型获准入许可，对公司业绩有何驱动？ 答：润科通用具有综合电子、雷达、通信、控制、机电、电气等专业优势，向客户提供覆盖商业航天全 生命周期的完整技术体系与综合解决方案。火箭方面，2019年由某火箭仿真实验室开启商业航天客户往 来并获得了客户的认可，助力了电子产品方向的配套进展，现已提供的产品包含控制系统的重要组成部 分；卫星方面，子公司已与业内知名公司建立卫星载荷合作关系，获得合作开发某设备的机会。 截至202 ...

Core Insights - The article highlights the evolution of Shenzhen Haon Automotive Electronics Co., Ltd. from a supplier of ultrasonic radar to a comprehensive provider of "perception + decision" systems in the automotive industry [1] - The company aims to leverage its technological capabilities to expand into robotics and low-altitude economy sectors, marking a significant strategic shift [1] Group 1: Company Evolution - Haon Automotive has transitioned from a single product supplier of ultrasonic sensors to an integrated solution provider for perception and decision systems over 16 years [2] - The product matrix now includes ultrasonic radar (including the latest AK2), visual perception systems, and 4D millimeter-wave radar, with the AK2 being crucial for advanced parking solutions [2] - The company has established partnerships with leading chip manufacturers to enhance decision-making capabilities, which are essential for advancing from L2 to L4 autonomous driving [2] Group 2: Market Positioning - Haon Automotive has successfully entered the supply chains of major international automotive manufacturers such as Ford, Stellantis, and Renault, demonstrating its competitive edge [2] - The rigorous process of gaining supplier codes from top-tier manufacturers took eight years, emphasizing the importance of technical integration and management capabilities [3] Group 3: Strategic Expansion - In 2024, Haon Automotive plans to enter the robotics sector, viewing it as a next trillion-yuan market with significant technological overlap with automotive applications [3][4] - The company is focusing on developing advanced algorithms for motion control and environmental perception, which are critical for robotics [4] - A phased approach is being adopted for the robotics business, with a projected one to five years for large-scale production, while also preparing for emerging fields like low-altitude economy [5] Group 4: Growth Objectives - Since its IPO in 2023, Haon Automotive has set ambitious revenue and profit growth targets, aiming for a tenfold increase [6] - The growth strategy includes expanding existing automotive business, entering new markets, and pursuing strategic acquisitions to mitigate risks [7][8] - The company emphasizes strategic execution over aggressive short-term expansion, allowing flexibility for its R&D teams while maintaining strict quality standards [8]

Group 1 - The core investment involves Tianlong Co., Ltd. acquiring a 54.87% stake in Suzhou Haomibo Technology Co., Ltd. for 232 million RMB, making it a subsidiary included in the consolidated financial statements [2][4] - Suzhou Haomibo, established in 2016, focuses on 4D millimeter-wave radar sensor development and aims to provide mass-producible ADAS systems and unmanned traffic control solutions for automotive manufacturers [3][5] - The investment is part of Tianlong's strategy to transition from automotive component supply to integrated smart sensing components, enhancing its competitive edge in the automotive electronics sector [5] Group 2 - The transaction includes a cash payment of 132 million RMB for a 32.30% stake and an additional 100 million RMB for a capital increase, resulting in Tianlong holding a 33.33% stake post-investment [4] - Suzhou Haomibo's revenue for the first three quarters of 2025 is projected to be 33.79 million RMB, reflecting a 288.64% increase compared to 2024 [3] - The deal includes performance-based clauses, with revenue targets set at 1.2 billion RMB and net profit targets at 48 million RMB over the next four years [5]

Core Viewpoint - Tianlong Co., Ltd. is making a significant strategic shift from a traditional automotive parts supplier to an intelligent perception integrator by acquiring a controlling stake in Suzhou Haomibo Technology Co., Ltd. for 232 million yuan [1][2]. Group 1: Acquisition Details - Tianlong plans to acquire 54.87% of Suzhou Haomibo through a combination of equity transfer and capital increase, with a total investment of 232 million yuan [1][2]. - The acquisition consists of two parts: 131.84 million yuan for acquiring 32.2998% equity from seven shareholders and 100 million yuan for capital increase to subscribe to the new registered capital of 7.608 million yuan [2]. - The deal includes performance-based clauses, requiring Suzhou Haomibo to achieve a cumulative revenue of 1.2 billion yuan and a net profit of 48 million yuan from 2026 to 2029 [2]. Group 2: Company Performance - Tianlong's financial performance remains robust, with a revenue of 947 million yuan and a net profit of 82.7036 million yuan for the first three quarters of 2025 [4]. - In Q3 2025, the company reported a revenue of 333 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2.03%, and a net profit of 26.1814 million yuan, up 6.31% [4]. - The company's net profit excluding non-recurring items grew by 21.56%, indicating strong resilience in its core business [4]. Group 3: Suzhou Haomibo's Growth - Suzhou Haomibo, established in 2016, focuses on R&D in intelligent perception devices, including 4D millimeter-wave radar and UWB sensors [2]. - The company has shown rapid revenue growth, achieving 33.7945 million yuan in revenue for the first three quarters of 2025, a staggering increase of 288.64% compared to the entire year of 2024 [3]. - With the increasing penetration of intelligent driving technology and the gradual mass production of projects, Suzhou Haomibo's operational performance is expected to continue improving [3]. Group 4: Market Outlook - The acquisition positions Tianlong to leverage Suzhou Haomibo's technological expertise in intelligent perception to enter high-growth sectors such as intelligent driving, low-altitude flight, smart transportation, and robotics [5]. - The market for 4D millimeter-wave radar is projected to experience explosive growth, with the Chinese market expected to reach 12.8 billion yuan in 2024 and 37 billion yuan by 2030, reflecting a compound annual growth rate of 20% [5].

Core Viewpoint - Tianlong Co., Ltd. plans to acquire a 54.8666% stake in Suzhou Haomibo Technology Co., Ltd. for a total cash consideration of 231.84 million yuan, making it a controlling subsidiary and consolidating it into its financial statements [2] Group 1: Transaction Details - The acquisition consists of two parts: a share transfer and a capital increase, with Tianlong investing 131.84 million yuan to acquire 32.2998% of the shares from seven entities and an additional 10 million yuan for a capital increase to obtain 33.3333% of the shares [2] - The transaction is structured as a package deal aimed at acquiring control of Suzhou Haomibo [2] Group 2: Company Profile and Financials - Suzhou Haomibo, established in 2016, focuses on high-tech fields such as 4D millimeter-wave radar and UWB sensors, providing ADAS solutions to automotive manufacturers [3] - Financial data indicates that Suzhou Haomibo achieved revenue of 8.70 million yuan in 2024, with a net loss of 59.21 million yuan, and for the first nine months of 2025, revenue increased to 33.79 million yuan with a reduced net loss of 43.59 million yuan [3] Group 3: Strategic Alignment and Synergies - The transaction aligns with Tianlong's strategic plan to develop hard technology and adapt to the automotive industry's trend towards intelligence [4] - Significant synergies are expected, with Tianlong's precision manufacturing capabilities enhancing Suzhou Haomibo's product mass production, while Suzhou Haomibo's technology will facilitate Tianlong's industrial upgrade [4] Group 4: Performance Clauses and Governance - The deal includes performance targets, with the founders of Suzhou Haomibo committing to achieve a cumulative revenue of 1.2 billion yuan and a net profit of 48 million yuan from 2026 to 2029, with penalties for underperformance [4] - Post-transaction, the board of Suzhou Haomibo will be restructured, allowing Tianlong to appoint two directors and nominate the financial officer [4]

Group 1: Xiaomi's Automotive Goals - Xiaomi's chairman Lei Jun announced a delivery target of 550,000 vehicles for 2026, exceeding the previous plan of 300,000 for 2025, which is now set at over 410,000 [2] - Since the factory's production began 20 months ago, Xiaomi has delivered 500,000 vehicles, with December alone seeing over 50,000 deliveries [2] - The YU7 SUV model has performed exceptionally well, delivering over 150,000 units in six months, which is 2.3 times the delivery of the SU7 in the same period [2] Group 2: Company Clarifications - Yushu Technology clarified that it is not involved in applying for a "green channel" for its A-share listing, and the regular listing process is proceeding normally [3] - Luxshare Precision issued a statement denying rumors that it would be affected by the production of OpenAI's first AI hardware, confirming that its core business is operating as planned [4] Group 3: New Developments in Technology - Black Sesame Intelligence announced that its high-performance intelligent driving chip, the Huashan A2000, has passed U.S. regulatory reviews and is now approved for global sales [10] - Lenovo's CEO Yang Yuanqing and NVIDIA's CEO Jensen Huang discussed future collaborations in AI, with plans to launch a new enterprise-level AI product at CES 2026 [9] Group 4: Investment and Acquisitions - Shengyi Technology signed an investment agreement for a high-performance copper-clad laminate project worth approximately 4.5 billion yuan, aimed at supporting growth in AI, cloud computing, and 6G communications [6] - Tianlong Co. plans to acquire a 54.87% stake in Suzhou Haomibow, a company focused on 4D millimeter-wave radar technology, to expand into smart driving and related fields [12] - Jincai Hulin announced plans to acquire a 51% stake in Wuxi Sanli, aiming to extend heat treatment technology into robot component manufacturing [14]

Group 1: Bond Market Strategy - The macroeconomic environment for 2026 is expected to maintain a GDP growth target of around 5%, focusing on internal demand recovery while external demand may slow down [14] - Fiscal policy is projected to remain proactive with a deficit rate around 4%, corresponding to a deficit scale of 5.95 trillion yuan, indicating an increase in government bond financing and special local government bonds [14] - The monetary policy is anticipated to remain moderately loose, with a potential interest rate cut of 10-20 basis points in 2026, while structural monetary policy tools are expected to remain stable [14] Group 2: Financial Stability Framework - The 2025 report shifts its focus from "risk resolution" to "function expansion and proactive stability," indicating a change in the approach to financial stability [14] - The report emphasizes the need to integrate financial stability into the macro-control system, linking it with monetary policy and capital market stability [14] Group 3: Manufacturing PMI - The December 2025 manufacturing PMI rose above 50, indicating a return to the expansion zone after several months below the threshold [14][15] - This improvement reflects a phase of macroeconomic recovery, suggesting limited downward pressure on interest rates, with yields expected to enter a volatile phase [15] Group 4: Carbon Fiber Materials - Carbon fiber composite materials are positioned to benefit from the low-altitude economy and commercial aerospace sectors, with significant demand expected from eVTOL and drone applications [14] - The price of aerospace-grade carbon fiber composites can reach 30,000 yuan/kg, while the demand for these materials is projected to increase significantly due to the growth in China's aerospace sector [14] - Domestic production of low-end carbon fiber products has increased, achieving an 80% replacement rate, while high-end products remain reliant on imports, indicating a market opportunity for domestic manufacturers [14] Group 5: AIGC and Content Ecosystem - The AIGC (Artificial Intelligence Generated Content) sector is identified as a high-potential area for monetization, particularly through the production of animated dramas [14] - The market for short dramas has surpassed 50 billion yuan, with the animated drama market expected to exceed 20 billion yuan, driven by platforms like Douyin and Tencent [14] - The stability and fluidity of AI-generated video content have improved significantly, leading to the release of successful AI-generated short dramas [14]

Group 1: Capital Market Insights - Global markets showed overall recovery during the New Year holiday, with Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index rising 2.7%, marking the strongest start in over a decade [2] - The Chinese yuan continues to appreciate, breaking the 7 mark, benefiting Chinese assets due to a weaker dollar and stable economic fundamentals [2] - Major brokerages remain optimistic about the A-share market, predicting a sustained bull market into 2026 [2] - A total of 71 new funds are scheduled for issuance in January, with 44 launching in the first trading week [2] Group 2: Industry Highlights - AI sector sees renewed attention with DeepSeek introducing a new AI model architecture that significantly reduces computing power requirements while enhancing efficiency [4] - The low-altitude economy is set to grow, with Shanghai aiming for a core industry scale of approximately 80 billion yuan by 2028 [4] - The film industry is projected to reach a box office of 51.83 billion yuan by 2025, with a year-on-year growth of 21.95% [4] - The real estate market in Beijing has seen increased viewing and transaction volumes since the implementation of new policies, with daily new home sales rising significantly [4] Group 3: Company Developments - Baidu plans to spin off Kunlun Chip for an IPO, with Goldman Sachs estimating its valuation at up to $16.5 billion, leading to a 10% surge in Baidu's Hong Kong shares [6] - BYD's electric vehicle sales have surpassed Tesla for the first time, with BYD selling 2.25 million units, a 28% increase year-on-year, while Tesla's deliveries are projected to decline by 8.6% to 1.64 million units in 2025 [6] - Ningde Times has repurchased 15.99 million shares for a total of 4.386 billion yuan [7] - DreamNet Technology has partnered with Shenzhou Liuhe to develop heavy-duty drone products [7]