Flash | 22 Aug 2025 00:14:58 ET │ 10 pages Buy On 21-Aug, Nio started the pre-sales of its new ES8 (link), with pre-sales pricing starting from Rmb416.8k or Rmb308.8k (under BaaS mode). If the final price of the new ES8 is in the Rmb285-300k range, we would expect monthly sales of 5k units; if it is lower than Rmb285k, we would expect monthly sales to be 7-8k units. Also read: China Auto Manufacturers: In the middle of a short-lived Aug earnings-rerating cycle; Weekly retail sales also recovered and Open 30 ...

研报指出，大摩分析师注意到客户对蔚来基本面需求和执行风险的询问大幅减少，更多关注即将推出的 L60和L80改款车型。 大摩预测，蔚来2025年净收入预计达到1012.44亿元人民币，2026年增长至1393.23亿元人民币，2027年 进一步攀升至1753.39亿元人民币，预计将在2028年实现净利润盈亏平衡。 摩根士丹利维持蔚来"增持"评级，目标价6.5美元，较当前6.34美元的收盘价仍有3%的上升空间。 摩根士丹利认为，本轮涨势有四大驱动因素：ES8预订单突破3万辆表现强劲，为月销4-5万辆目标提供 支撑；资金流入良性，两天成交额超25亿美元；市场情绪从质疑转向期待，投资者关注焦点转向新车型 L60、L80；股价上涨形成自我强化效应，提升融资能力。该行维持蔚来"增持"评级。 在过去60天内，蔚来股价从低点暴涨超过90%，远远跑赢恒指9%的涨幅。这背后到底有什么利好？ 8月26日，据追风交易台消息，摩根士丹利在最新研报中称，蔚来股价此前已经触及50.7港元（6.5美 元）的目标价位，其本轮涨势主要由四大因素驱动： ES8车型预订量强劲增长、资金流入良性、市场情绪显著改善，以及股价上涨的自我强化效 应。 大摩 ...

8月26日，据追风交易台消息，摩根士丹利在最新研报中称，蔚来股价此前已经触及50.7港元（6.5美 元）的目标价位，其本轮涨势主要由四大因素驱动： ES8车型预订量强劲增长、资金流入良性、市场情绪显著改善，以及股价上涨的自我强化效应。 研报指出，大摩分析师注意到客户对蔚来基本面需求和执行风险的询问大幅减少，更多关注即将推出的 L60和L80改款车型。 大摩预测，蔚来2025年净收入预计达到1012.44亿元人民币，2026年增长至1393.23亿元人民币，2027年 进一步攀升至1753.39亿元人民币，预计将在2028年实现净利润盈亏平衡。 摩根士丹利维持蔚来"增持"评级，目标价6.5美元，较当前6.34美元的收盘价仍有3%的上升空间。 ES8预订单火爆 摩根士丹利的调研显示，蔚来ES8车型的预订单表现超出预期。截至上周末，ES8的预订单（需缴纳 5000元人民币可退还定金）可能已突破30000辆，且数字仍在持续增长。 虽然真实需求仍需看订单转化率，但积极的反馈强化了市场对ES8可能像上月L90一样火爆的预期，这 为蔚来集团从10月开始实现月销4-5万辆的目标提供了有力支撑。 资金流入呈现良性态势 过去两天 ...

另外，花旗发表报告，给予蔚来目标价8.1美元，并列出支持其"买入"评级的五大理由：1)该行预计L90 车型于2025年9月产量将突破10,000辆。2)若新ES8月销量达到5000至8000辆且毛利率为15%至20%，将 显著提升公司整体毛利率。3)凭借强劲的销量动能和成本控制，该行预计蔚来将于2025年第四季度实现 净利润收支平衡。4)2026年购置税减免政策减半对蔚来相对有利，因BaaS模式下的电池费用无需缴纳购 置税。5)该行预计ES9及L80车型将于2026年上半年推出，其中ES9定位为旗舰SUV，定价约50万元。 (格隆汇) 蔚来(NIO.US)盘前涨超5.6%，报6.7美元；H股盘中创近十个月新高，最终收涨超15%，报52.7港元。 消息面上，蔚来于8月21日正式开启新ES8车型预售，预售价格为41.68万元起，采用电池租用服务 (BaaS)模式则为30.88万元起。蔚来汽车总裁秦力洪在新车发布翌日透露，"蔚来不公布订单数量，但是 如果按照小时算，到目前为止，全新ES8的订单量是超过上个月乐道L90的。" ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report is that NIO-SW (09866) is expected to see marginal improvements and cost reduction effects, which will become a market focus [1] - Despite a 50% rebound from its low price, the group's price-to-sales ratio for 2025 is only 0.85 times, indicating potential for continued price rebound [1] - The pricing strategy for NIO's L90 model is aggressive, with a starting price of 265,800 RMB, and even the top-spec Ultra version does not exceed 300,000 RMB [1] Group 2 - The report anticipates that the group will achieve stable monthly sales exceeding the market expectation of 5,000 units [1] - The success of the L90 model is seen as paving the way for the upcoming L80 model, which will help NIO reverse its sales trend [1]

Group 1 - The report from CMB International maintains a "Buy" rating for NIO-SW (09866), indicating a potential short-term rebound in stock price due to marginal improvements, particularly in sales recovery [1] - Despite a 50% rebound from lower levels, NIO's price-to-sales ratio for 2025 is only 0.85 times, which is still lower than the 1-2 times valuation of its peers in the new energy vehicle sector, suggesting further upside potential for the stock [1] Group 2 - The launch of the Lido L90 model has a starting price of 265,800 RMB for the Pro version, with the Max and Ultra versions priced at 279,800 RMB and 299,800 RMB respectively; the seven-seat model starts at 271,800 RMB [2] - The official pricing is approximately 14,100 RMB lower than the pre-sale price announced on July 10, indicating a strategic pricing adjustment [2] - The L90 model includes high-end features such as an 85kWh battery, L2-level intelligent driving assistance system, and Orin-X chip, with promotional offers to encourage purchases [2] - The management's pricing strategy reflects a strong commitment to achieving sales targets, with expectations of monthly sales exceeding the market forecast of 5,000 units [2] - The success of the L90 model is anticipated to pave the way for the upcoming L80 model, contributing to a turnaround in NIO's sales performance [2]

Summary of NIO's Q1 2025 Earnings Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: NIO Inc. - **Industry**: Smart Electric Vehicles (EVs) Key Financial Results - **Total Revenues**: 12 billion RMB, up 21.5% year-over-year, down 38.9% quarter-over-quarter [6] - **Vehicle Sales**: 9.9 billion RMB, up 37.2% year-over-year, down 5.9% quarter-over-quarter [6] - **Vehicle Margin**: 10.2%, compared to 9.2% in Q1 last year and 13.1% last quarter [6] - **Overall Gross Margin**: 7.6%, compared to 4.9% in Q1 last year and 11.7% last quarter [6] - **R&D Expenses**: 3.2 billion RMB, up 11.1% year-over-year, down 12.5% quarter-over-quarter [7] - **Net Loss**: 6.8 billion RMB, up 30.2% year-over-year, down 5.1% quarter-over-quarter [7] Delivery and Production Highlights - **Q1 Deliveries**: 42,094 smart EVs, up 4.1% year-over-year [1] - **Q2 Delivery Guidance**: Expected between 72,000 and 75,000 units, representing 25.5% to 30.7% growth year-over-year [2] - **New Model Launches**: Successful launch of ES6, EC6, EQ5, and EQ5P in late May [2] Product and Technology Updates - **New Models**: EP9 deliveries surpassed BMW 7 Series and Audi A8 L in China [2] - **Smart Driving Innovations**: Deployment of NS9031 smart driving chip and full-domain vehicle operating system, SkyOS [3] - **NIO World Model (NWM)**: Enhancements in active safety, urban and highway driving, and parking features [4][15] Operational Efficiency and Cost Management - **Cost Reduction Efforts**: Focus on improving operational efficiency across R&D, supply chain, sales, and service functions [5][11] - **Target for Q2**: Achieve a 15% efficiency increase compared to Q1 [12] - **Long-term Goals**: Aim for a profit-loss balance by Q4, with R&D costs controlled between 2 to 2.5 billion RMB per quarter [13] Market Position and Competitive Strategy - **Brand Performance**: NIO's new models are expected to drive significant sales growth, with a target of 25,000 units per month by Q4 [9][10] - **Sales Strategy**: Focus on maintaining price stability while improving vehicle gross margins [10] - **Expansion Plans**: Continued international expansion and partnerships in over 15 core markets [4] User Feedback and Market Response - **User Feedback on New Models**: Positive reception for new ES6, EC6, and ET5 models, with improvements in product competitiveness noted [29] - **Battery Technology**: Current models utilize 400-volt systems, with no immediate plans to switch to 900-volt systems [30] Additional Insights - **Power Swap Network**: NIO operates 3,408 power swap stations globally, with over 75 million swaps provided to users [4] - **Sales Network Development**: Over 440 stores in China, with ongoing improvements in sales and service efficiency [20] - **Future Product Launches**: L90 expected to launch in Q3, with strong market anticipation [22] This summary encapsulates the key points from NIO's Q1 2025 earnings conference call, highlighting financial performance, product developments, operational strategies, and market positioning.

Core Viewpoint - NIO is facing intense competition in the automotive industry, but CEO Li Bin expresses confidence in the company's ability to recover and achieve profitability through self-reliance and management improvements [2][12]. Group 1: Financial Performance - In Q1, NIO delivered 42,094 vehicles, a year-on-year increase of over 40%, with revenue exceeding 12 billion RMB, up over 21% year-on-year [2]. - Despite not yet achieving profitability, NIO's stock price rose nearly 10% following the Q1 report, indicating positive market sentiment [2]. - NIO's operational cash flow is expected to improve significantly starting Q2, supporting stable development for the year [3][23]. Group 2: Sales and Production Outlook - NIO's sales have stabilized at around 23,000 units per month in Q2, with a projected total of 72,000 to 75,000 units for the quarter [3]. - The NIO brand's flagship model, ET9, has outperformed traditional luxury brands in sales, marking a significant achievement for Chinese brands [3]. - NIO aims for total monthly sales across its three brands to exceed 50,000 units, with a gross margin target of 17%-18% and a sales management expense ratio of around 10% [5][26]. Group 3: Brand Strategy and Market Position - NIO's sub-brands, including Ladao and Firefly, are showing promising growth, with Ladao's deliveries increasing by over 40% in May compared to April [4]. - The company is focusing on expanding its battery swap station network, which is crucial for increasing sales in lower-tier markets [7][8]. - NIO's internal restructuring aims to enhance efficiency and reduce resource waste, with a focus on maintaining brand differentiation while sharing resources in the backend [8][19]. Group 4: Product Development and Innovation - NIO is set to launch new models, including L90 and L80, which are expected to significantly impact the SUV market [9][36]. - The company is investing in advanced technologies, including self-developed chips and intelligent operating systems, to drive sales growth [10]. - NIO's R&D expenses are being optimized, with a target reduction to 20-25 billion RMB per quarter while maintaining competitive strength [22]. Group 5: Competitive Landscape and Industry Challenges - NIO is navigating a highly competitive environment, with price wars posing challenges to profitability [15][16]. - The company emphasizes the importance of technological innovation and user experience over price competition to ensure sustainable growth [16]. - Li Bin acknowledges that the current competitive landscape is more intense than in previous years, requiring NIO to prove its capabilities [14].

Core Viewpoint - NIO's recent quarterly financial report shows significant losses and a decrease in cash reserves, yet the stock price rose over 6% post-announcement, indicating market optimism about future performance [1][3][21]. Financial Performance - In Q1, NIO reported a net loss of 6.75 billion yuan, a 30% increase year-over-year, marking the second-highest quarterly loss in its history [21]. - Total revenue for Q1 was 12.035 billion yuan, a 21.5% year-over-year increase, but below the guidance of 12.367 to 12.859 billion yuan [5]. - Vehicle sales revenue was 9.939 billion yuan, up 18.6% year-over-year, with an average selling price of approximately 236,100 yuan, down 15.3% year-over-year [7]. Delivery and Production - NIO delivered a total of 42,094 vehicles in Q1, a 40.1% increase year-over-year, but the delivery of NIO-branded vehicles decreased by 9.1% [4]. - The company has set a Q2 delivery guidance of 72,000 to 75,000 vehicles, indicating a potential recovery in performance [3][41]. Cost Structure - R&D expenses for Q1 were 3.181 billion yuan, an 11.1% increase year-over-year, while selling, general, and administrative expenses rose by 46.8% to 4.4 billion yuan [11]. - NIO's overall gross profit was 920 million yuan, with a gross margin of 7.6%, while the automotive gross margin remained above 10% [14]. Cash Flow and Financial Health - Cash reserves decreased significantly from 41.9 billion yuan at the end of last year to 26 billion yuan, attributed to seasonal sales impacts and capital expenditures [17]. - NIO's current liabilities exceeded current assets, and shareholder equity was negative, raising concerns about financial stability [18]. Market Position and Competitors - Compared to competitors, NIO's losses are significantly higher, with Li Auto reporting a profit of 647 million yuan in Q1, while Xpeng and Xiaomi reported losses of 660 million yuan and 500 million yuan, respectively [25]. - The competitive landscape is shifting, with NIO needing to improve its delivery and profitability metrics to keep pace with rivals [24][27]. Future Outlook - NIO's management remains optimistic about achieving profitability by Q4, focusing on increasing sales volume, improving gross margins, and reducing costs [23][40]. - The company plans to implement cost-cutting measures and efficiency improvements, aiming to reduce R&D expenses by 20-25% by Q4 [45].

NIO Q1 2025 Earnings Call Summary Company Overview - **Company**: NIO Inc. - **Industry**: Electric Vehicles (EVs) Key Financial Performance - **Q1 2025 Deliveries**: 42,094 smart EVs, a 40.1% year-over-year increase [2][3] - **Revenue**: RMB 12 billion, a 21.5% year-over-year increase [2][13] - **Vehicle Sales**: RMB 9.9 billion, up 18.6% year-over-year [2][13] - **Gross Margin**: Vehicle margin at 10.2%, overall gross margin at 7.6% [2][15] - **Net Loss**: RMB 6.8 billion, a 30.2% increase year-over-year [14] Delivery Expectations - **Q2 2025 Deliveries**: Anticipated between 72,000 to 75,000 units, representing a year-over-year growth of approximately 25.5% to 30.7% [2][3][14] Product Launches and Innovations - **New Models**: Launched ES6, EC6, ET5, and ET5T in May 2025, with deliveries starting shortly after [2][5] - **Product Competitiveness**: The ET9 model surpassed competitors in the premium segment within its first four months [5] - **AI Model Feedback**: Positive reception for the new AI model with significant improvements in active safety features [22][24] Infrastructure and Expansion - **Power Swap Stations**: 3,408 stations established globally, with over 65 million swaps conducted [2][7] - **Charging Infrastructure**: Over 26,000 power chargers installed [2][7] - **International Expansion**: Partnerships with over ten local partners across fifteen core markets planned for Q3 [8][9] Cost Management and Operational Efficiency - **Cost Reduction Measures**: Implemented strict reviews and adjustments to improve operational efficiency [12][17] - **R&D and SG&A Expenses**: Aiming for a 15% efficiency improvement in R&D spending in Q2 2025 [19][21] Market Trends and Competitive Landscape - **BEV Market Growth**: Mid-size to large SUV segments for BEVs grew by 63% year-over-year in early 2025 [41] - **Sales Network Maturity**: Over 440 operational stores contributing to increased sales volumes [28] Future Outlook - **Q4 2025 Break-even Target**: Monthly sales volume of over 50,000 units expected, with combined gross margin of 17-18% [34][35] - **Product Launches**: Anticipated significant product launches in the second half of 2025, including the next-generation ES8 [11][31] Strategic Initiatives - **Lower-tier City Strategy**: Utilizing power swap stations as sales points in lower-tier cities to reduce costs [30] - **Channel Network Management**: Separate management for Kuniko and NIO brands while leveraging synergies in operations [37][38] Conclusion NIO's Q1 2025 performance reflects strong growth in deliveries and revenues, supported by new product launches and an expanding infrastructure. The company is focused on cost management and operational efficiency while preparing for significant growth in the second half of the year.