中金主要观点如下： 业绩符合市场预期，改革成效持续兑现 （原标题：中金：维持蔚来-SW(09866)跑赢行业评级 目标价62港元） 智通财经APP获悉，中金发布研报称，当前蔚来-SW(09866)美股及港股分别对应2026年0.7/0.8x P/S，维 持跑赢行业评级，港美股目标价分别为62港元/8美元，均对应2026年1.0x P/S，港股和美股分别较当前 股价存32%/46%的上行空间。公司公布3Q25业绩：营收为217.9亿元，整体业绩符合市场和该行预期。 在强劲的产品周期带动下，公司财报表示3Q经营性现金流和自由现金流均实现转正。此前公司于9月17 日完成11.6亿美元公开增发新股融资，所筹资金规划用于智能电动汽车核心技术的研发、新一代技术平 台及车型的开发、充换电基础设施的扩展，以及进一步优化公司资产负债表，增强资金实力，该行认为 公司安全垫持续提升。 风险提示：市场竞争加剧致需求不及预期，费用控制及换电合作不及预期。 公司3Q25交付87,071辆，实现营收217.9亿元。综合毛利率环比+3.9ppt至13.9%，汽车毛利率环比+4.4ppt 至14.7%，创下公司1Q23以来季度最好水平，主因推 ...

Core Insights - The report from CICC indicates that NIO's overall performance in Q3 surpassed industry expectations, with multiple key metrics aligning with market forecasts, showcasing the effectiveness of recent reforms and entering a strong product cycle [1] - Looking ahead to Q4, CICC is optimistic about NIO's continued positive operational momentum, with monthly delivery volumes expected to exceed previous highs [1] Company Performance - NIO's Q3 financial report revealed historic breakthroughs in delivery volumes, revenue capabilities, and overall gross margin [1] - The revenue guidance for Q4 is projected to reach between 32.76 billion to 34.04 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 66.3% to 72.8%, positioning NIO as a leader among new energy vehicle companies [1] Product Strategy - NIO currently has three clearly defined brands, and its product matrix is becoming increasingly comprehensive [1] - The company plans to launch three SUV models, ES9, ES7, and L80, by 2026 to further strengthen its competitiveness in the pure electric large vehicle segment [1]

25 November 2025 | 7:49PM CST Equity Research NIO Inc. (NIO): 3Q25 First Take: Operating profit beat on higher vehicle margin, 4Q25 volume/revenue guidance below expectation Exhibit 1: Nio 3Q25 result summary Nio reported 3Q25 result with total revenue slightly below expectation but operating profit beat, mainly attributed to higher vehicle gross margin from greater-than-expected BOM cost reduction. However, 4Q25 volume and revenue guidance was below expectation, with vehicle sales volume of 120k-125k units ...

Core Insights - NIO Inc. reported a record monthly delivery of 40,397 vehicles in October 2025, representing a year-over-year increase of 92.6% [1] - Year-to-date deliveries reached 241,618 vehicles, marking a 41.9% increase compared to the previous year [1] - Goldman Sachs raised its sales forecast for NIO from 2026 to 2030 by 6% to 11%, citing improved competitiveness of new models L90 and ES8 [1] Delivery Performance - October 2025 deliveries reached 40,397 units, a new monthly record [1] - Year-to-date deliveries as of early November 2025 totaled 241,618 units [1] - The year-over-year growth rates for October and year-to-date deliveries were 92.6% and 41.9%, respectively [1] Future Outlook - NIO plans to accelerate the delivery of the new ES8 model in November, with a projected 70% increase in production capacity compared to October [1] - The company is set to expand its product line by introducing two new models, L80 and ES9, along with a refreshed ES7 by 2026 [1] - The introduction of these new models is expected to further enhance sales momentum [1]

Core Viewpoint - Goldman Sachs has raised NIO's sales forecast for 2026 to 2030 by 6% to 11% due to the improved market competitiveness of new models like the L90 and ES8, which have driven continuous sales growth in the past quarter [1] Group 1 - The company has accelerated its new model product line rollout to 2026, planning to launch two new models, L80 and ES9, along with a facelifted model ES7, which is expected to further enhance sales momentum [1] - The firm now predicts that the company will achieve full-year non-GAAP EBIT breakeven by 2028, one year earlier than the previous forecast of 2029 [1] - The target price for the US stock has been raised from $4.3 to $7, while the target price for the H-shares has been increased from HKD 33.3 to HKD 55, maintaining a "Neutral" rating [1]

Core Insights - The article emphasizes the importance of strategic planning, branding, design, and advanced technology in the automotive industry, particularly in the context of electric vehicles [1] - Historical challenges faced by companies include execution issues related to efficiency and cost, defining second-generation products, and market conditions unfavorable for high-end electric vehicles [1] - A turnaround is noted with the introduction of the L60, which is the first vehicle on the third-generation platform, achieving energy efficiency and lightweight design comparable to Tesla, while addressing previous negative impacts of battery swapping on vehicle design [1] - The L90 has successfully established the brand position of LeDao as a quality family car, while the ES8 has demonstrated strong competitive features and differentiation from the L90, solidifying its presence in the high-end market [1] Future Pathways - In 2026, the focus will be on leveraging the advantages of the 3.0 platform for larger vehicles, with models like L80 and ES7 aiming to provide unique rear-seat experiences that are currently lacking in the market [2] - In 2027, the strategy will involve addressing the 5566 model size by enhancing driving experience through features like active suspension, which will be implemented in models such as ES6 and ET7, potentially offering a market-first experience [2]

Core Viewpoint - NIO's revenue and vehicle sales are showing significant recovery in Q2 2025, driven by new model launches and improved product mix, with optimistic guidance for Q3 and Q4 2025 [1][2] Group 1: Financial Performance - In Q2 2025, NIO's revenue reached approximately 19.01 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 9% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 57.9%, with automotive revenue around 16.3 billion RMB [1] - The average selling price per vehicle increased to approximately 239,000 RMB, slightly above market expectations, primarily due to new model launches [1] - Q2 2025 gross margin was 10.0%, up 2.4 percentage points quarter-on-quarter, with automotive gross margin at 10.3%, remaining stable compared to Q1 2025 [1] - NIO reported a net loss of 4.99 billion RMB in Q2 2025, an 11% year-on-year increase but a narrowing quarter-on-quarter [1] Group 2: Sales Guidance and Projections - The company is optimistic about Q3 2025, expecting deliveries between 87,000 and 91,000 vehicles, with revenue projected at 21.8 to 22.9 billion RMB, marking a historical high [1] - For Q4 2025, NIO aims for combined monthly sales of approximately 50,000 vehicles, with a projected gross margin increase to 17%–18% [1] - The order volume for the ES8 is anticipated to be around 40,000 to 50,000 units, with significant deliveries of the L90 and ES8 expected in Q4 2025 [1] Group 3: Market Outlook and Adjustments - NIO's 2025 sales forecast has been raised from 300,000 to 340,000 vehicles, with revenue expectations increased by 17.5% to 99.5 billion RMB, reflecting strong sales expectations for the L90 and ES8 [2] - The focus is on the sustainability of marginal improvements and cost reduction effectiveness, as well as the potential for profitability in Q4 2025 [2] - The target price for NIO has been adjusted to 62.7 HKD / 8.0 USD, corresponding to a 2025 price-to-sales ratio of 1.2 times, maintaining a buy rating [2]

Summary of NIO (NIO.N) Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: NIO Inc. - **Industry**: Electric Vehicles (EV) Key Points and Arguments 1. New Product Launch and Sales Expectations - NIO has initiated pre-sales for its new ES8 model, with pricing starting from Rmb416.8k or Rmb308.8k under the Battery as a Service (BaaS) model. If the final price is between Rmb285k and Rmb300k, expected monthly sales are projected at 5,000 units. If priced below Rmb285k, monthly sales could reach 7,000 to 8,000 units [1][2] 2. Production and Delivery Projections - The production volume for the L90 model is expected to exceed 10,000 units in September 2025, with a backlog supporting deliveries until early November 2025. Monthly deliveries of L90 are anticipated to surpass 10,000 units in Q4 2025, exceeding investor expectations [2] 3. Financial Performance Expectations - NIO is expected to achieve net profit breakeven in Q4 2025, with December 2025 deliveries projected at 50,000 units. The gross profit margin (GPM) for Q4 is estimated to be between 16% and 17%. Non-GAAP R&D expenses are projected at Rmb2 billion, with non-GAAP SG&A as a percentage of revenue at 10% [4] 4. Future Sales and Tax Benefits - A decline in sales is anticipated in Q1 2026 due to the low season for car sales, followed by a recovery in Q2 2026. The halved purchase tax exemption in 2026 is expected to benefit NIO, particularly as battery expenses under the BaaS model are exempt from this tax [5] 5. Upcoming Model Pipeline - NIO plans to launch the ES9 and L80 models in the first half of 2026, with the ES9 priced around Rmb500k, positioning it as a flagship SUV [5] Valuation and Market Outlook - The target price for NIO's shares is set at US$8.10, based on a 1.1x 2025E price-to-sales ratio, reflecting expectations of intensive new model launches and effective cost control [6][8] Risks - Key risks that could hinder reaching the target price include: - Failure to design and manufacture high-quality vehicles on schedule and at scale - Increased competition - Lower-than-expected demand - Inability to provide profitable customer service - Challenges in accessing affordable funding - Product quality issues [9] Market Metrics - Current share price (as of August 21, 2025): US$5.54 - Expected share price return: 46.2% - Market capitalization: US$11.563 billion [6] This summary encapsulates the essential insights from the conference call regarding NIO's product launches, sales expectations, financial projections, and associated risks, providing a comprehensive overview for potential investors.

Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley identifies four main drivers behind NIO's recent stock surge: strong pre-orders for the ES8 model, positive capital inflow, improved market sentiment, and a self-reinforcing effect of rising stock prices [1][3][4]. Group 1: ES8 Pre-orders - The pre-orders for the ES8 model have exceeded expectations, surpassing 30,000 units as of last weekend, with numbers continuing to grow [4]. - This strong demand supports NIO's goal of achieving monthly sales of 40,000 to 50,000 units starting in October [4]. Group 2: Capital Inflow - Over the past two days, NIO's stock trading volume exceeded $2.5 billion, equivalent to the total trading volume of the previous two weeks, indicating a significant increase in investor interest [6]. - This influx of capital provides a solid liquidity foundation for the continued rise in stock prices [6]. Group 3: Market Sentiment - There has been a notable shift in market sentiment, with a significant decrease in inquiries regarding NIO's fundamental demand and execution risks, replaced by interest in the upcoming L60 and L80 models [7]. - This change reflects a transition from skepticism to optimism among investors, focusing more on growth opportunities [7]. Group 4: Self-reinforcing Effect of Stock Price - The rise in NIO's stock price is believed to enhance confidence in the capital market, thereby improving the company's financing capabilities [7]. - This positive feedback loop is expected to further drive stock price increases, which is crucial for NIO's operational value framework and its ability to navigate the rapidly changing automotive industry [7].

Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley's latest report indicates that NIO's stock price has reached the target price of HKD 50.7 (USD 6.5), driven by four main factors: strong growth in ES8 model bookings, positive capital inflow, significantly improved market sentiment, and a self-reinforcing effect of the stock price [1] Group 1: ES8 Model Performance - The pre-order performance of the ES8 model has exceeded expectations, with pre-orders potentially surpassing 30,000 units as of last weekend, which supports NIO's goal of achieving monthly sales of 40,000 to 50,000 units starting in October [2] Group 2: Capital Inflow - In the past two days, NIO's stock trading volume exceeded USD 2.5 billion, equivalent to the cumulative trading volume of the previous two weeks, indicating a significant increase in attention from institutional and individual investors [3] Group 3: Market Sentiment - Market sentiment has notably improved, with NIO's stock price increasing over 90% in the past 60 days, significantly outperforming the Hang Seng Index's 9% increase [5] Group 4: Change in Investor Focus - Morgan Stanley observed a significant shift in investor inquiries, with a dramatic decrease in questions regarding NIO's fundamental demand and execution risks, replaced by interest in the upcoming L60 and L80 models set to launch early next year [6] Group 5: Self-Reinforcing Stock Price Mechanism - The report highlights a positive feedback loop where rising stock prices enhance market confidence, improving NIO's financing capabilities, which is crucial for the company's operational value framework and its ability to navigate the rapidly changing automotive industry [7]