研究报告 Research Report 27 Nov 2025 蔚来 NIO Inc. (9866 HK) 3Q25 规模与盈利双改善，盈利拐点已现但持续性待验证 3Q25 Scale and Margin Improve, Profit Inflection Emerges but Sustainability Remains Uncertain [Table_yemei 观点聚焦 1] Investment Focus [Table_Info] 维持中性 Maintain NEUTRAL 评级 中性 NEUTRAL 现价 HK$46.82 目标价 HK$50.02 HTI ESG 4.7-1.1-3.0 E-S-G: 0-5, (Please refer to the Appendix for ESG comments) 市值 HK$91.13bn / US$11.71bn 日交易额 (3 个月均值) US$71.24mn 发行股票数目 1,946mn 自由流通股 (%) 66% 1 年股价最高最低值 HK$61.20-HK$24.50 注：现价 HK$46.82 为 2025 年 11 月 25 日收 ...

Core Viewpoint - NIO's Q3 2025 financial report shows record-high delivery volume, revenue, and gross margin, with significant reduction in losses and increased cash reserves, exceeding market expectations and indicating sustainable development potential [2][3][4]. Delivery and Revenue Performance - In Q3, NIO delivered 87,071 vehicles, a year-on-year increase of 40.8% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 20.8%, setting a new record for quarterly deliveries [3]. - Revenue reached 21.79 billion yuan, up 16.7% year-on-year and 14.7% quarter-on-quarter, driven by increased delivery volume and optimized product mix [3]. - The overall gross margin improved to 13.9%, up 3.2 percentage points from the same period last year and 3.9 percentage points from the previous quarter, marking the highest level in three years [3]. Loss Reduction and Cash Flow - NIO's net loss for Q3 was 3.4805 billion yuan, a decrease of 31.2% year-on-year and 30.3% quarter-on-quarter. Non-GAAP net loss narrowed to 2.7351 billion yuan, down 34.1% year-on-year and 31.5% quarter-on-quarter [4]. - Cash reserves increased to 36.7 billion yuan, with positive operating cash flow and free cash flow, providing a solid foundation for future profitability [5]. Multi-Brand Strategy and Market Position - NIO's multi-brand strategy has successfully contributed to balanced growth, with deliveries from NIO, Ladao, and Firefly brands at 36,928, 37,656, and 12,487 vehicles respectively [5]. - The Ladao brand has become a growth driver, achieving 30,000 deliveries within 86 days of the Ladao L90's launch, while the NIO brand's new ES8 model set a record for deliveries of high-end electric vehicles [5]. Cost Control and Efficiency - R&D expenses decreased to 2.39 billion yuan, down 28.0% year-on-year, while sales, general, and administrative expenses increased slightly by 1.8% [6]. - NIO aims to control sales and administrative expenses to 12% of revenue, enhancing operational efficiency [6]. Q4 Outlook and Profitability Goals - NIO projects Q4 deliveries between 120,000 and 125,000 vehicles, with revenue guidance of 32.76 billion to 34.04 billion yuan, both setting new historical highs [7]. - The company aims for an 18% gross margin in Q4, driven by the delivery of high-margin models and continued cost optimization [7]. Market Challenges and Competitive Landscape - Price competition in the electric vehicle market poses a risk to gross margin, with recent price cuts from competitors impacting profitability [8]. - NIO's R&D expenses remain high at 15.8% of revenue, with a target to reduce this to 6%-7%, presenting a significant challenge [8]. Long-Term Strategy and International Expansion - NIO is focusing on international expansion, with plans for the Firefly brand to enter global markets, which could open new growth opportunities [9]. - The company continues to invest in key areas such as AI, ensuring efficiency in R&D while maintaining a strong focus on technological advancements [9].

智通财经APP讯，蔚来-SW(09866)发布2025年第三季度业绩，收入总额为人民币217.939亿元(30.614亿 美元)，同比增长16.7%。毛利约30.25亿元，同比增长50.7%。净亏损为34.805亿元(4.889亿美元)，同比 减少31.2%。 "2025年第三季度，本公司交付87071辆智能电动汽车，同比增长40.8%。强劲的增长势头得益于蔚来、 乐道及萤火虫品牌产品的综合竞争力。这些产品在其各自细分市场持续得到用户的青睐。"蔚来创始 人、董事长兼首席执行官李斌表示。"我们正与供应链合作伙伴紧密合作以提高产能，预计第四季度的 总交付量将介乎12万至12.5万辆，同比增长65.1%至72.0%，并创季度新高。" "全新蔚来ES8创下在中国40万元以上纯电动汽车交付量破万的最快纪录，乐道 L90连续三个月保持大型 纯电SUV销量第一，萤火虫自交付以来迅速在智能电动高端小车市场佔据领先地位。凭借我们的核心智 能电动汽车技术、互补的多品牌产品组合、全面便捷的充换电网络，以及具有活力并持续壮大的用户社 区，公司已进入一个加速增长的新周期。"李斌补充道。 "通过持续优化成本以及高毛利率车型交付占比提升， ...

"全新蔚来ES8创下在中国40万元以上纯电动汽车交付量破万的最快纪录，乐道 L90连续三个月保持大型 纯电SUV销量第一，萤火虫自交付以来迅速在智能电动高端小车市场佔据领先地位。凭借我们的核心智 能电动汽车技术、互补的多品牌产品组合、全面便捷的充换电网络，以及具有活力并持续壮大的用户社 区，公司已进入一个加速增长的新周期。"李斌补充道。 "通过持续优化成本以及高毛利率车型交付占比提升，我们的汽车毛利率在2025年第三季度环比提升至 14.7%，综合毛利率达到过去三年来的最高水平，突显我们产品及服务盈利能力的提升。"蔚来首席财 务官曲玉补充道。"我们在研发、销售和服务方面持续提升营运效率，亦推动非公认会计准则经营亏损 环比减少超过30%，延续2025年上半年的正向趋势。此外，本季度实现了正向经营现金流，且经营现金 流在扣除资本支出后仍保持为正。另外，在11.6亿美元股权发行的进一步支持下，我们更为稳健的资产 负债表为实现持续的长期增长奠定坚实基础。" 2025年第三季度的汽车交付量为87071辆，较2024年第三季度增长40.8%，较2025年第二季度增长 20.8%。 "2025年第三季度，本公司交付8707 ...

Group 1: E-commerce Developments - AliExpress achieved record sales in Brazil during the Double 11 shopping festival, with a peak daily transaction amount on November 11, marking the highest since its launch in 2013 [4] - SHEIN is accelerating the onboarding of global brands, supported by initiatives in Guangzhou aimed at boosting cross-border e-commerce growth [5] - The SHEIN platform is launching the "SHEIN Xcelerator" brand incubation and support program to attract more global sellers [5] Group 2: Transportation and Electric Vehicles - Didi's Brazilian ride-hailing platform, 99, has expanded its electric vehicle service "99electric-Pro" to five major cities, promoting green transportation [6][8] - The "99electric-Pro" service has registered over 30,000 electric and hybrid vehicles, serving over 27 million passengers and reducing CO2 emissions by approximately 31,200 tons [8] Group 3: Corporate Listings and Investments - Watsons Group plans to go public in Hong Kong and the UK, aiming to raise up to $2 billion in an IPO expected to launch in the first half of next year [9] - Tianqi Lithium's first North American electrolyte factory has broken ground with a total investment of approximately $200 million, targeting an annual production capacity of 200,000 tons [10][12] Group 4: Automotive Industry - NIO's Firefly brand has commenced mass production of right-hand drive models, with the first batch set to be shipped to Singapore [13] - The Firefly model has sold 26,242 units as of October, with plans to enter markets in Thailand and the UK next year [13] Group 5: Technology and AI Investments - Foxconn plans to invest between $1 billion and $5 billion to expand its manufacturing footprint in the U.S. to meet the demands of Nvidia and OpenAI [15] - Nvidia and Microsoft are set to invest up to $150 billion in Anthropic, marking a significant partnership in AI development [26] Group 6: Aerospace Developments - SpaceX's upgraded Starship rocket experienced an explosion during testing, highlighting ongoing challenges in aerospace technology [18][21] Group 7: Cross-Platform Innovations - Google and Apple have achieved cross-platform file sharing capabilities, allowing users to transfer files between iOS and Android devices seamlessly [22][25]

【文/观察者网 潘昱辰 编辑/高莘】11月18日，蔚来紧凑型车品牌萤火虫的右舵车型正式量产，首批将 发运至新加坡市场。 此外，萤火虫定位为面向全球市场布局的车型，于今年8月实现欧洲市场的首台交付。截至目前，萤火 虫已陆续在荷兰、挪威和比利时启动交付，并即将在丹麦、希腊、奥地利、葡萄牙和卢森堡开启试驾和 交付。 不过据路透社报道，蔚来副总裁、萤火虫总裁金舸表示，欧盟委员会在2024年底征收的关税挤压了萤火 虫在当地的利润率，并放缓了其在欧洲的扩张。 因此，考虑到大多数右舵市场并未对中国电动汽车征收惩罚性关税，蔚来正在寻求萤火虫在右舵国家市 场的增长，并计划在2026年增加在这些市场的交付数量。 金舸表示，萤火虫还计划于明年进入泰国和英国，目前正在与当地分销商进行谈判。他还将英国、澳大 利亚、新西兰和东南亚列为主要目标市场。不过，金舸没有透露萤火虫在以上市场的预期销量。 萤火虫 @firefly萤火虫 在此次发运的新加坡市场，萤火虫将作为精品小型车进行销售，价格将高于比亚迪等竞争对手。金舸表 示，萤火虫将避免与国内竞争对手在海外陷入价格战。 "如果我们降低它的定位，就完了。" 金舸表示，在与经销商的谈判中，蔚来强 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the resurgence of NIO, highlighting its recent sales growth and the strategic decisions made by CEO Li Bin that have led to a positive market re-evaluation of the company [2][11][21]. Group 1: Company Performance - NIO's monthly delivery volume surpassed 40,000 units for the first time in October, marking a nearly doubled year-on-year growth [9]. - The launch of flagship models, including the new ES8 and the L90, has significantly contributed to NIO's sales performance, with the L90 achieving over 10,000 deliveries for three consecutive months [8][9]. - NIO's sales matrix is characterized by high-value, high-margin products, which is expected to increase the company's gross margin to 16%-17% in the fourth quarter [9][12]. Group 2: Strategic Decisions - Li Bin emphasizes a long-term approach, focusing on technology and product planning rather than engaging in price wars, which he believes could harm the industry [12][18]. - NIO's strategy includes maintaining a flat organizational structure to support multiple brands, allowing for resource sharing and efficiency [20]. - The company has successfully navigated challenges by sticking to its core technological routes and product definitions, which has proven effective in the competitive landscape [17][19]. Group 3: Market Trends - The electric vehicle market is experiencing significant growth, with pure electric vehicle sales increasing by 50.1% in the first half of the year [16]. - NIO's battery swap service has gained popularity, with over 9 million swaps completed, indicating a shift in consumer preferences towards electric vehicles [16]. - Analysts have raised NIO's sales forecasts for 2026-2030 by 6% to 11%, reflecting growing confidence in the company's future performance [11].

Core Viewpoint - The challenge for NIO to achieve its target of 150,000 vehicle sales in the fourth quarter is significant, primarily due to the complexities of its battery swap model and the need for infrastructure to support it [2][3][5]. Group 1: Sales Target Challenges - NIO's unique battery swap model allows for diverse pricing but also presents risks, as the profitability of battery swap stations is uncertain and they may not generate sufficient revenue to support expansion [2][3]. - The current delivery volume of NIO is 910,000 units as of 2024, and maintaining a delivery rate of 40,000 units per month is crucial for doubling the vehicle ownership in two years [2][3]. - The competition in the charging infrastructure is intensifying, and if battery swap stations cannot keep pace with vehicle sales, it may lead to a shortage of available battery swaps for customers [2][3]. Group 2: Perspectives on Achieving Sales Goals - Some analysts believe that NIO will meet its sales target due to its strong capital structure and the need to demonstrate progress to investors [5][9]. - The reduction in vehicle prices and operational costs is expected to boost sales, as consumers respond positively to lower prices [5][9]. - The production capacity and delivery logistics are seen as the main hurdles, but existing orders indicate a potential for achieving the sales target [6][12]. Group 3: Future Outlook - NIO's strategy involves a focus on service and positioning itself as a mobility company, which may enhance its market appeal and sales performance [9][10]. - The introduction of new models and potential price adjustments could further stimulate demand, especially if the company can maintain a competitive edge in the market [10][12]. - Analysts suggest that 40,000 units per month could become a new normal for NIO, but achieving profitability while maintaining brand integrity will be a significant challenge [10][11].

连续创业者闯进汽车制造业 在创立蔚来汽车之前，李斌已经在其他领域颇有成绩。 李斌1974年出生于安徽安庆，高中时迷上编程的他，在AppleII机上编写BASIC程序的举动，已显露技 术创业者的潜质。1991年，他以太湖县文科状元身份考入北大。 在校期间，基于兴趣所在，李斌和同学共同创建了一家网络科技公司——南极科技，主要业务就是租服 务器在国内帮人注册域名、租空间。这也是李斌第一次成功的创业。 从销量来看，李斌与蔚来汽车(09866.HK、NIO.NYSE)似乎暂时度过了危机。 从零起步，到成为造车新势力头部，李斌带领着蔚来几经"生死"考验。李斌在最近对用户的回应中表 示，"被人问候一下蔚来什么时候倒闭，老被人问候也挺烦，对不对？" 实际上，蔚来刚交出了一份增长的销量成绩单。11月1日，蔚来汽车发布10月销量数据，蔚来公司交付 新车40397台，同比增长92.6%，月销量数据首次破4万辆，累计交付量达91.32万台。 增长与压力并存。蔚来仍处于亏损中，2025年上半年归母净利润亏损扩大至120.3亿元。 李斌立下军令状，蔚来2025年四季度必须实现盈利。为了实现这一关键目标，蔚来正全力冲刺。 距离交卷时刻已经 ...

Core Viewpoint - The automotive industry is experiencing a strong performance in October, with many companies reporting higher sales than in September, particularly in the electric vehicle (EV) segment. The year-end sales surge is anticipated to be significant due to various incentives and tax policies [1][4]. Group 1: BYD - In October, BYD's passenger car sales reached 436,856 units, maintaining a leading position in the EV market with over 3.7 million cumulative sales in the first ten months of the year [2][4]. - The sales breakdown includes 395,015 units from the Dynasty and Ocean series, 31,052 from the Fangcheng Leopard, 10,135 from Tengshi, and 654 from Yangwang [2]. Group 2: Geely - Geely's total sales in October were 307,133 units, with 177,882 units being electric vehicles. The Galaxy brand contributed 245,497 units, while Lynk & Co and Zeekr added 40,213 and 21,423 units, respectively [5][6]. - Geely's sales have shown rapid growth, particularly with the Galaxy brand doubling its sales compared to the previous month [8]. Group 3: Chery - Chery achieved a significant milestone with its monthly EV sales surpassing 110,000 units for the first time, driven by the newly launched Fengyun T11, which received nearly 40,000 orders within 24 hours [12]. Group 4: SAIC-GM-Wuling - SAIC-GM-Wuling reported total sales of 174,956 units in October, with 123,147 units being electric vehicles. The Hongguang MINI EV was a key contributor to this success [13][17]. Group 5: Great Wall Motors - Great Wall Motors sold 143,078 units in October, with 46,155 units being electric vehicles. The company is accelerating its transition to electric vehicles and achieving success in high-end and overseas markets [19]. Group 6: Leap Motor - Leap Motor delivered 70,289 units in October, showing strong momentum in the 100,000 to 200,000 yuan price range. The company is expanding its product line with new models [6][21]. Group 7: Huawei's Hongmeng Zhixing - Hongmeng Zhixing delivered 68,216 units in October, with significant contributions from the Zhijie and Xiangjie models. The company is focusing on increasing production capacity and solidifying its position in the high-end market [21][23]. Group 8: NIO - NIO delivered 40,397 units in October, with the brand's performance driven by the successful launch of new models and organizational efficiency improvements [26][30]. Group 9: Xiaomi - Xiaomi's electric vehicle sales exceeded 40,000 units in October, supported by a tax subsidy policy that has garnered positive feedback from consumers [31][33]. Group 10: Deep Blue and Avita - Deep Blue reported global deliveries of 36,792 units in October, with the Deep Blue S05 being a major contributor. The brand's cumulative sales increased by 57.1% year-on-year [11][35]. Group 11: Li Auto - Li Auto delivered 31,767 units in October, facing intense competition but maintaining a dual strategy of range-extended and pure electric vehicles [12][38]. Group 12: Dongfeng Yipai Technology - Dongfeng Yipai Technology achieved sales of 31,107 units in October, benefiting from the integration of multiple sub-brands [39]. Group 13: BAIC New Energy - BAIC New Energy sold 30,542 units in October, with significant contributions from the Arcfox and Xiangjie brands [40][42]. Group 14: FAW Bestune - FAW Bestune's sales reached 20,400 units in October, with 18,468 units being electric vehicles, indicating a successful transition towards electrification [15][44]. Group 15: Lantu - Lantu delivered 17,218 units in October, focusing on flagship models and technological upgrades in collaboration with Huawei [16][46]. Group 16: IM Motors - IM Motors delivered 13,159 units in October, with the launch of the LS6 model contributing to a new monthly delivery record [17][48]. Group 17: Jishi Motors - Jishi Motors delivered 1,426 units in October, showing steady growth in sales, particularly in international markets [18][51].