龙头重金押注，为AI算力需求的真实性与持续性提供了有力印证。半导体板块的这轮热度，正源自产 业基本面的坚实支撑。在当前趋势下，产业链中哪些环节将受益？请看机构最新研判。 近期半导体板块资金大幅流入，市场热度骤升。这轮行情的核心催化剂，来自产业龙头台积电交出的一 份超预期"答卷"：公司2025年四季度营收创下新高，同时大幅上调2026年资本开支至520亿—560亿美 元。这意味着，全球AI算力需求并非短期泡沫，而是具有坚实订单支撑的长周期趋势。 从台积电披露的财报来看，公司2025年第四季度营收突破337亿美元。3nm、5nm、7nm等先进制程贡献 了公司77%的晶圆总营收，其中3nm产能持续满载，成为营收增长的核心引擎。台积电表示，当下驱动 半导体尖端产能的，是AI芯片与高端消费电子的强劲需求。 资本开支方面，台积电2026年资本开支指引为520亿—560亿美元，其中70%—80%投向先进制程、约 10%投向特殊制程、10%—20%用于先进封装/测试/制版等，体现公司对AI芯片长期需求的坚定判断， 为后续产能释放奠定坚实基础。在此指引下，技术迭代与产能扩张持续强化高端晶圆代工竞争优势，充 分受益AI产业长期红 ...

近日，台积电发布了2025年四季度业绩报表，只能说是真的封神了。 到底有多牛？数据显示，这一季度营收1.04609 万亿元新台币（约2300亿元人民币），同比增长 35.5%，净利润5057.4 亿元新台币（约1120亿元），同比增长35%，创下历史纪录。 净利润高达48.3%，毛利率高达62.3%，这放在所有的芯片企业中，都是相当恐怖的，估计现在也只有 英伟达能够和它PK一下了。 为何台积电这么赚钱？ 有两个方面的主要原因，一是台积电的订单，真的是太多了，接都接不过来啊。 目前苹果、高通、英伟达、AMD、博通等等厂商，都在抢台积电的产能，对于台积电而言，只要有产 能，就根本不愁卖，现在完全是卖方市场，客户要看台积电脸色行事，台积电说了算。 同时台积电还在全球扩产，不断的提高产能，只要生产线运转，那就真的是客户送上门来，所以它的营 收才能持续不断的增长，因为产能越来越高嘛。 另外一个非常重要的原因，那就是台积电的先进芯片占比越来越高了。 数据显示，到2025年四季度时，台积电的7nm及以下工艺贡献的营收占比，已经达到77%了，其中3nm 占28%，5nm占35%，7nm占14%。 1、要想赚钱，还得发展先进工 ...

Industry & Operational Situation - In 2025, strong growth in AI-related demand was observed, while non-AI markets showed signs of recovery, with the "Foundry 2.0" industry growing by 16% year-on-year [1] - The "Foundry 2.0" industry is expected to grow by 14% year-on-year in 2026 [1] - AI accelerator business accounted for 15% of TSMC's revenue in 2025, with an upward revision of revenue growth forecast, expecting a CAGR of mid-to-high 50% from 2024 to 2029 [1] - TSMC's overall revenue is projected to have a CAGR of nearly 25% in USD from 2024 to 2029 [1] - The second phase of the Arizona facility has been completed, with production plans being advanced due to strong customer demand, aiming for mass production in the second half of 2027 [1] Financial Performance - Sales revenue reached NT$1,046.09 billion (approximately USD 33.73 billion), with a quarter-on-quarter increase of 5.7% and a year-on-year increase of 20.5% [2][3] - Net profit attributable to shareholders was NT$505.74 billion, reflecting a quarter-on-quarter increase of 11.8% and a year-on-year increase of 35.0% [2][3] - Gross margin was reported at 62.3%, up 2.8 percentage points quarter-on-quarter and 3.3 percentage points year-on-year, benefiting from favorable exchange rates and optimized capacity utilization [2][3] - Earnings per share (EPS) was NT$19.50, with a quarter-on-quarter increase of 11.8% and a year-on-year increase of 35.0% [2][3] Capital Expenditure & Guidance - Capital expenditure (CapEx) was NT$356.91 billion, showing a quarter-on-quarter increase of 24.2% but a year-on-year decrease of 1.4% [5] - For Q1 2026, revenue guidance is set between USD 34.6 billion and USD 35.8 billion, with a quarter-on-quarter increase of 4% and a year-on-year increase of 38% expected [5] - For the full year 2026, revenue is expected to grow nearly 30% year-on-year in USD, with market consensus at USD 150.44 billion, reflecting a growth of approximately 25% [6] - Long-term gross margin is expected to exceed 56%, with a focus on improving production efficiency and optimizing capacity across nodes [6] Market Dynamics & Customer Insights - TSMC's CEO expressed confidence in the sustainability of AI demand, citing positive feedback from customers regarding AI's impact on their business growth [7][8] - The company is accelerating capacity expansion in both Taiwan and Arizona to meet AI demand, with government support facilitating progress [8] - Despite concerns over rising storage costs, TSMC anticipates continued strong demand for high-end smartphones, which are less sensitive to price fluctuations [12][15] Technology & Competitive Landscape - TSMC's advanced process technologies, particularly in 3nm and upcoming 2nm nodes, are expected to maintain strong demand due to their performance advantages [18][20] - The company is committed to supporting all customers, even as it scales down 8-inch mature process capacity [14] - TSMC does not foresee a significant risk of market share loss to competitors like Intel, emphasizing the complexity and time required to develop advanced technologies [13]

Core Viewpoint - TSMC's Q4 2025 financial results significantly exceeded market expectations, driven by strong demand for AI-related high-end chips, with revenue reaching $33.73 billion, a year-on-year increase of 25.5% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 1.9% [2] Financial Performance - TSMC's net income for Q4 2025 was $16.04 billion, a 35% increase, surpassing analyst expectations of around 25% growth [6] - The gross margin for Q4 2025 rose to 62.3%, exceeding the market estimate of 60.6% [6] - The company reported a revenue of $122.42 billion for 2025, a 35.9% increase from 2024 [3] - Operating profit margin improved to 50.8%, up 5.1 percentage points from the previous year [3] - Free cash flow for 2025 was $1.00 billion, a 15.2% increase [3] Business Segments - High-performance computing accounted for 55% of TSMC's revenue, with a 48% year-on-year growth, while smartphone revenue increased to 32% [4] - Revenue from the smartphone, IoT, and automotive sectors grew by 11%, 15%, and 34% respectively, contributing 29%, 5%, and 5% to total revenue [4] Regional Contribution - North America remains TSMC's largest market, contributing 74% to total revenue [4] Future Outlook - TSMC projects a revenue growth rate of 30% for 2026, primarily driven by AI demand [5] - The company anticipates a compound annual growth rate of 15% to 20% for overall revenue over the next five years [6] - TSMC expects Q1 2026 gross margin to further increase to 63%-65% [6] Capital Expenditure - TSMC's capital expenditure for 2025 was $40.9 billion, within the expected range, with projections for 2026 capital expenditure to reach $49 billion to $56 billion [9] - The company plans to allocate 70%-80% of its capital budget to advanced process technologies [9] Production Capacity - TSMC's advanced process technology accounted for 77% of total wafer revenue in Q4 2025, with 3nm technology contributing 28% [9] - Despite significant capacity expansion, demand remains strong, and supply-demand tightness is expected to persist into 2026 [9][10] Market Impact - TSMC's stock price has surged approximately 340% since the beginning of 2023, reflecting the market's strong response to AI as a core growth driver [11] - The company's market capitalization is close to $1.7 trillion, making it the sixth most valuable company globally [11]

Core Viewpoint - TSMC is recognized as the most trusted semiconductor foundry globally, built on decades of technological leadership, a rigorous business model, excellent operations, and reliability [2][5]. Group 1: Business Model and Trust - TSMC's pure foundry model is the foundation of its reputation, as it does not compete with clients and maintains strict confidentiality, ensuring clients' intellectual property is protected [2][3]. - The company has established deep trust within a vast ecosystem, making it the preferred manufacturing partner for leading chip designers like Apple, AMD, and Qualcomm [2]. Group 2: Technological Leadership - TSMC consistently leads in the production of advanced process nodes such as 7nm, 5nm, and 3nm, maintaining high yield rates, which is crucial for reliable and timely delivery of innovative products [3][5]. - The company's focus on process control and defect management has resulted in industry-leading yield rates, allowing clients to reduce costs and accelerate production ramp-up [3]. Group 3: Intellectual Property and Confidentiality - TSMC has a strong reputation for protecting intellectual property, having proven its ability to handle sensitive data securely through long-term collaborations with thousands of clients [4]. - The company's internal culture and strict access controls contribute to its reliability in safeguarding client information [4]. Group 4: Scale and Ecosystem Integration - TSMC's significant investments in fabs, equipment, and talent have created unmatched manufacturing capabilities, earning client trust [4]. - Collaborations with equipment suppliers and EDA vendors form a robust ecosystem that reduces risks and shortens time-to-market for clients [4]. Group 5: Long-term Strategic Vision - TSMC's proactive investment strategy, often initiated before demand arises, ensures sufficient capacity even during industry fluctuations [5]. - The company's capacity planning during recent global chip shortages has reinforced its image as a stable and responsible industry leader [5]. Group 6: Global Reputation and Governance - TSMC demonstrates transparency and compliance, fostering cooperation with governments and clients worldwide, despite geopolitical risks [5]. - The company's expansion into the US, Japan, and Europe reflects its commitment to supply chain resilience and global trust [5].

大周五，咱们「国产 GPU 第一股」摩尔线程，整了个让资本市场直呼「看不懂」的骚操作。 公告字数不多，核心就一句：准备拿不超过 75 亿元的闲置资金，去买理财产品 。 这事儿有多魔幻？ 稍微翻翻账本你就知道，摩尔线程这次 IPO，扣除发行费后真正落袋的净额，一共才75.76 亿元。 换句话说，上市敲钟融来的钱，还没在账上捂热乎，99% 的资金就被原封不动地转手存进了「余额 宝」 。 是不是很有趣？网上瞬间炸了锅，段子手们调侃说：这操作，大洋彼岸的黄仁勋看了都得笑出声，说实 话，我也跟着笑了一会儿。 不过，笑完后，我认认真真又花几个小时看了下他们家的财报、行业数据，发现看似荒诞的「99% 闲 置率」背后，藏着一个中国硬科技行业最尴尬、也最残酷的真相。 01 什么真相呢？我们先说下这 75 亿，到底是个什么概念？ 根据摩尔线程 12 月 12 日晚上的公告，这 75 亿是买协定存款、通知存款、结构性存款这些「安全性 高、流动性好的保本型产品」 。 说白了，把钱放在银行的保险柜里，顺便吃点比活期高一丢丢的利息，而且期限不超过 12 个月 。 看到这儿，很多股民的第一反应还是想骂：我给你这么多钱，让你去造核弹，你却给 ...

Core Insights - Patience capital is reshaping the value assessment system in capital markets during a critical period of economic transformation towards "new productive forces" [2] - The article reveals the quantitative characteristics and strategic value of patience capital data from 2007 to 2025, providing insights for investors, policymakers, and enterprises [2] Definition and Quantitative Revolution - Patience capital is defined through a dynamic evaluation system based on the ratio of relational debt and the stability of strategic equity, moving beyond traditional financial metrics [3] - The relational debt ratio reflects the proportion of long-term liabilities in total liabilities, indicating a company's ability to support strategic innovation through debt financing [3] - Strategic equity stability is quantified by the ratio of institutional investors' shareholding and the standard deviation of their holdings over the past three years, indicating stronger strategic commitment [3] Data Innovations - A dual-factor model combining "debt structure + equity stickiness" provides a multidimensional portrayal of capital attributes [4] - Time series standard deviation analysis captures changes in investor behavior patterns, revealing the dynamic evolution of capital patience [4] Industry Distribution and Hard Technology Preference - Patience capital shows significant industry clustering effects, particularly in strategic emerging industries like semiconductors, biomedicine, and new energy [4] - Shenzhen's unicorn enterprises exhibit an average relational debt ratio of 41%, with 13 new unicorns receiving long-term funding from the National Integrated Circuit Industry Investment Fund [4] Regional Competition and Patience Capital Density - The Yangtze River Delta and Pearl River Delta form a dual-core driving pattern for the development of patience capital, with Shenzhen's model centered around industrial funds exceeding one trillion yuan [5] - The high density of patience capital supports the growth of hard technology benchmarks like DJI and BYD, creating a virtuous cycle of "capital-technology-industry" [5] Generational Evolution of Investor Structure - The investor group for patience capital exhibits distinct generational characteristics, with the first generation focusing on absolute returns and risk control, while the second emphasizes industrial synergy and strategic value [6] - The third generation incorporates ESG considerations into long-term investment perspectives, blending value investment with social responsibility [6] Capital Strategic Upgrades - Companies should enhance the efficiency of patience capital allocation through "technological credibility + governance transparency" [8] - Institutional investors need to innovate long-term value assessment models that include non-financial indicators like "technology maturity curve" and "industry ecological niche" [8] - Local governments should implement policies such as tax incentives to lower the participation costs of patience capital [9] Future Outlook - The strategic value of patience capital will become more prominent with the emergence of disruptive technologies like AI and quantum computing [10] - Companies receiving patience capital support in technology fields with R&D cycles exceeding five years have a success rate 2.3 times higher than the market average [10] - Capital markets must leverage this historical opportunity through institutional innovations to attract global patience capital [10]

Core Viewpoint - The article argues that the advancements in China's semiconductor industry, particularly in 7nm and 5nm chip technologies, are significant and not merely experimental, countering claims made by U.S. officials about China's capabilities [1][3][6]. Group 1: 7nm Chip Technology - SMIC has made notable progress in its N+2 process technology, achieving a yield rate exceeding 70%, which is a substantial step towards mass production, challenging the notion that these are just "laboratory samples" [3]. - The domestic semiconductor supply chain is improving, with enhanced purity of semiconductor-grade silicon wafers and photoresists, reducing chip failure rates and supporting the mass production of 7nm chips [3]. - Huawei's Mate60 series smartphones demonstrate the successful commercialization of 7nm chips, with strong sales reflecting consumer acceptance and market performance [3]. Group 2: 5nm Chip Technology - Chinese researchers have innovatively utilized DUV lithography combined with self-aligned quadruple patterning (SAQP) to achieve 5nm-level precision, overcoming the limitations posed by the lack of EUV technology [5]. - The collaboration of high-resolution photoresists and carbon-based semiconductor materials has led to a 30% increase in transistor density and doubled heat dissipation efficiency, laying the groundwork for 5nm chip performance optimization [5]. - SMIC's advancements in 5nm technology and the establishment of multiple 5nm wafer fabs in the Yangtze River Delta are expected to boost domestic chip self-sufficiency to over 45% by 2025, with automotive-grade chip installation rates nearing 50% [5]. Group 3: U.S. Response and Implications - The U.S. attempts to isolate China's technology sector may backfire, potentially leading to scenarios where American industries need to source 28nm chips from China due to global oversupply of mature chips [6]. - The reliance on Chinese resources such as rare earths and gallium may expose vulnerabilities in the U.S. supply chain, particularly in military and renewable energy sectors [6]. - The comments made by U.S. officials are seen as an effort to rally domestic support while misleading international opinion to hinder China's semiconductor industry collaboration [6].

Core Viewpoint - The rapid development of China's chip industry has led to a significant drop in North American chip prices by 66%, creating a challenging situation for Western chip manufacturers [1][3][9] Group 1: Market Dynamics - China has become a global leader in the production of mid-to-low-end chips, surpassing the U.S. in chip output in 2024 [1][3] - The strong supply capacity of Chinese mid-to-low-end chips and their competitive pricing have contributed to the price decline in North America [3][5] - Chinese companies, such as Yangtze Memory Technologies, have successfully captured market share from American firms like Micron and Samsung through aggressive pricing strategies [3][5] Group 2: Impact on Western Companies - The influx of low-priced Chinese chips has pressured U.S. chip manufacturers, leading to significant revenue declines, such as a 96% drop in Wolfspeed's performance over three years and a 41.9% revenue decrease for Microchip Technology in Q4 2024 [5][7] - Many U.S. companies are facing survival challenges, resulting in layoffs and factory closures to cope with the market downturn [5][7] Group 3: Future Outlook - China's dominance in mid-to-low-end chips is expected to continue, as these chips are crucial for various consumer products, including air conditioners and electric vehicles [7][9] - Despite existing gaps in high-end chip technology, China is making strides, with companies like SMIC achieving mass production of 7nm chips [7][9] - The ongoing technological advancements suggest that China may soon break through existing barriers in the high-end chip market, further solidifying its global position [9][11] Group 4: Geopolitical Implications - The U.S. has attempted to counter China's chip rise through tariffs and sanctions, but these measures have not effectively curbed China's growth and have instead led to price drops in the U.S. market [9][11] - The potential for increased tariffs could backfire, leading to higher costs for American companies and further reliance on Chinese chips [7][9]

Core Insights - Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited (TSM) reported second-quarter 2025 earnings per share (EPS) of $2.47, reflecting a year-over-year increase of 60.7% and surpassing Zacks Consensus Estimates by 4.2% [1][10] - TSM's net revenues for the second quarter reached $30.07 billion, marking a 44.4% increase year over year and exceeding Zacks Consensus Estimate by 0.1% [1][10] Financial Performance - TSM's revenue distribution by platform in the second quarter was as follows: high-performance computing (60%), smartphone (27%), Internet of Things (5%), automotive (5%), digital consumer electronics (1%), and other segments (2%) [2] - The largest contribution to wafer revenues came from 5nm technology, accounting for 36% of total wafer revenues, followed by 3nm at 24% and 7nm at 14% [3][4] - Geographically, North America was the dominant contributor, accounting for 75% of total revenues, while China and the Asia Pacific region each contributed 9%, Japan 4%, and EMEA 3% [5] Margins and Cash Flow - TSM's gross margin was reported at 58.6%, an expansion of 540 basis points year over year, while the operating margin was 49.6%, expanding 710 basis points [6] - The net profit margin stood at 42.7%, reflecting an increase of 590 basis points [6] - As of June 30, 2025, TSM had cash and cash equivalents totaling $90.36 billion, an increase from $81.4 billion at the end of the previous quarter [7] Guidance - For the third quarter of 2025, TSM expects revenues to range between $31.8 billion and $33.0 billion, with a projected gross profit margin between 55.5% and 57.5% and an operating profit margin between 45.5% and 47.5% [9] - For the entirety of 2025, TSM anticipates a revenue increase of approximately 30% in U.S. dollars [9]