大周五，咱们「国产 GPU 第一股」摩尔线程，整了个让资本市场直呼「看不懂」的骚操作。 公告字数不多，核心就一句：准备拿不超过 75 亿元的闲置资金，去买理财产品 。 这事儿有多魔幻？ 稍微翻翻账本你就知道，摩尔线程这次 IPO，扣除发行费后真正落袋的净额，一共才75.76 亿元。 换句话说，上市敲钟融来的钱，还没在账上捂热乎，99% 的资金就被原封不动地转手存进了「余额 宝」 。 是不是很有趣？网上瞬间炸了锅，段子手们调侃说：这操作，大洋彼岸的黄仁勋看了都得笑出声，说实 话，我也跟着笑了一会儿。 不过，笑完后，我认认真真又花几个小时看了下他们家的财报、行业数据，发现看似荒诞的「99% 闲 置率」背后，藏着一个中国硬科技行业最尴尬、也最残酷的真相。 01 什么真相呢？我们先说下这 75 亿，到底是个什么概念？ 根据摩尔线程 12 月 12 日晚上的公告，这 75 亿是买协定存款、通知存款、结构性存款这些「安全性 高、流动性好的保本型产品」 。 说白了，把钱放在银行的保险柜里，顺便吃点比活期高一丢丢的利息，而且期限不超过 12 个月 。 看到这儿，很多股民的第一反应还是想骂：我给你这么多钱，让你去造核弹，你却给 ...

Core Insights - Patience capital is reshaping the value assessment system in capital markets during a critical period of economic transformation towards "new productive forces" [2] - The article reveals the quantitative characteristics and strategic value of patience capital data from 2007 to 2025, providing insights for investors, policymakers, and enterprises [2] Definition and Quantitative Revolution - Patience capital is defined through a dynamic evaluation system based on the ratio of relational debt and the stability of strategic equity, moving beyond traditional financial metrics [3] - The relational debt ratio reflects the proportion of long-term liabilities in total liabilities, indicating a company's ability to support strategic innovation through debt financing [3] - Strategic equity stability is quantified by the ratio of institutional investors' shareholding and the standard deviation of their holdings over the past three years, indicating stronger strategic commitment [3] Data Innovations - A dual-factor model combining "debt structure + equity stickiness" provides a multidimensional portrayal of capital attributes [4] - Time series standard deviation analysis captures changes in investor behavior patterns, revealing the dynamic evolution of capital patience [4] Industry Distribution and Hard Technology Preference - Patience capital shows significant industry clustering effects, particularly in strategic emerging industries like semiconductors, biomedicine, and new energy [4] - Shenzhen's unicorn enterprises exhibit an average relational debt ratio of 41%, with 13 new unicorns receiving long-term funding from the National Integrated Circuit Industry Investment Fund [4] Regional Competition and Patience Capital Density - The Yangtze River Delta and Pearl River Delta form a dual-core driving pattern for the development of patience capital, with Shenzhen's model centered around industrial funds exceeding one trillion yuan [5] - The high density of patience capital supports the growth of hard technology benchmarks like DJI and BYD, creating a virtuous cycle of "capital-technology-industry" [5] Generational Evolution of Investor Structure - The investor group for patience capital exhibits distinct generational characteristics, with the first generation focusing on absolute returns and risk control, while the second emphasizes industrial synergy and strategic value [6] - The third generation incorporates ESG considerations into long-term investment perspectives, blending value investment with social responsibility [6] Capital Strategic Upgrades - Companies should enhance the efficiency of patience capital allocation through "technological credibility + governance transparency" [8] - Institutional investors need to innovate long-term value assessment models that include non-financial indicators like "technology maturity curve" and "industry ecological niche" [8] - Local governments should implement policies such as tax incentives to lower the participation costs of patience capital [9] Future Outlook - The strategic value of patience capital will become more prominent with the emergence of disruptive technologies like AI and quantum computing [10] - Companies receiving patience capital support in technology fields with R&D cycles exceeding five years have a success rate 2.3 times higher than the market average [10] - Capital markets must leverage this historical opportunity through institutional innovations to attract global patience capital [10]

Core Viewpoint - The article argues that the advancements in China's semiconductor industry, particularly in 7nm and 5nm chip technologies, are significant and not merely experimental, countering claims made by U.S. officials about China's capabilities [1][3][6]. Group 1: 7nm Chip Technology - SMIC has made notable progress in its N+2 process technology, achieving a yield rate exceeding 70%, which is a substantial step towards mass production, challenging the notion that these are just "laboratory samples" [3]. - The domestic semiconductor supply chain is improving, with enhanced purity of semiconductor-grade silicon wafers and photoresists, reducing chip failure rates and supporting the mass production of 7nm chips [3]. - Huawei's Mate60 series smartphones demonstrate the successful commercialization of 7nm chips, with strong sales reflecting consumer acceptance and market performance [3]. Group 2: 5nm Chip Technology - Chinese researchers have innovatively utilized DUV lithography combined with self-aligned quadruple patterning (SAQP) to achieve 5nm-level precision, overcoming the limitations posed by the lack of EUV technology [5]. - The collaboration of high-resolution photoresists and carbon-based semiconductor materials has led to a 30% increase in transistor density and doubled heat dissipation efficiency, laying the groundwork for 5nm chip performance optimization [5]. - SMIC's advancements in 5nm technology and the establishment of multiple 5nm wafer fabs in the Yangtze River Delta are expected to boost domestic chip self-sufficiency to over 45% by 2025, with automotive-grade chip installation rates nearing 50% [5]. Group 3: U.S. Response and Implications - The U.S. attempts to isolate China's technology sector may backfire, potentially leading to scenarios where American industries need to source 28nm chips from China due to global oversupply of mature chips [6]. - The reliance on Chinese resources such as rare earths and gallium may expose vulnerabilities in the U.S. supply chain, particularly in military and renewable energy sectors [6]. - The comments made by U.S. officials are seen as an effort to rally domestic support while misleading international opinion to hinder China's semiconductor industry collaboration [6].

Core Viewpoint - The rapid development of China's chip industry has led to a significant drop in North American chip prices by 66%, creating a challenging situation for Western chip manufacturers [1][3][9] Group 1: Market Dynamics - China has become a global leader in the production of mid-to-low-end chips, surpassing the U.S. in chip output in 2024 [1][3] - The strong supply capacity of Chinese mid-to-low-end chips and their competitive pricing have contributed to the price decline in North America [3][5] - Chinese companies, such as Yangtze Memory Technologies, have successfully captured market share from American firms like Micron and Samsung through aggressive pricing strategies [3][5] Group 2: Impact on Western Companies - The influx of low-priced Chinese chips has pressured U.S. chip manufacturers, leading to significant revenue declines, such as a 96% drop in Wolfspeed's performance over three years and a 41.9% revenue decrease for Microchip Technology in Q4 2024 [5][7] - Many U.S. companies are facing survival challenges, resulting in layoffs and factory closures to cope with the market downturn [5][7] Group 3: Future Outlook - China's dominance in mid-to-low-end chips is expected to continue, as these chips are crucial for various consumer products, including air conditioners and electric vehicles [7][9] - Despite existing gaps in high-end chip technology, China is making strides, with companies like SMIC achieving mass production of 7nm chips [7][9] - The ongoing technological advancements suggest that China may soon break through existing barriers in the high-end chip market, further solidifying its global position [9][11] Group 4: Geopolitical Implications - The U.S. has attempted to counter China's chip rise through tariffs and sanctions, but these measures have not effectively curbed China's growth and have instead led to price drops in the U.S. market [9][11] - The potential for increased tariffs could backfire, leading to higher costs for American companies and further reliance on Chinese chips [7][9]

Core Insights - Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited (TSM) reported second-quarter 2025 earnings per share (EPS) of $2.47, reflecting a year-over-year increase of 60.7% and surpassing Zacks Consensus Estimates by 4.2% [1][10] - TSM's net revenues for the second quarter reached $30.07 billion, marking a 44.4% increase year over year and exceeding Zacks Consensus Estimate by 0.1% [1][10] Financial Performance - TSM's revenue distribution by platform in the second quarter was as follows: high-performance computing (60%), smartphone (27%), Internet of Things (5%), automotive (5%), digital consumer electronics (1%), and other segments (2%) [2] - The largest contribution to wafer revenues came from 5nm technology, accounting for 36% of total wafer revenues, followed by 3nm at 24% and 7nm at 14% [3][4] - Geographically, North America was the dominant contributor, accounting for 75% of total revenues, while China and the Asia Pacific region each contributed 9%, Japan 4%, and EMEA 3% [5] Margins and Cash Flow - TSM's gross margin was reported at 58.6%, an expansion of 540 basis points year over year, while the operating margin was 49.6%, expanding 710 basis points [6] - The net profit margin stood at 42.7%, reflecting an increase of 590 basis points [6] - As of June 30, 2025, TSM had cash and cash equivalents totaling $90.36 billion, an increase from $81.4 billion at the end of the previous quarter [7] Guidance - For the third quarter of 2025, TSM expects revenues to range between $31.8 billion and $33.0 billion, with a projected gross profit margin between 55.5% and 57.5% and an operating profit margin between 45.5% and 47.5% [9] - For the entirety of 2025, TSM anticipates a revenue increase of approximately 30% in U.S. dollars [9]

Core Viewpoint - TSMC's wafer production costs in Arizona are only about 10% higher than those in Taiwan, contrary to the belief that U.S. production is prohibitively expensive [1][2]. Cost Factors - Equipment costs account for over two-thirds of semiconductor production costs, and prices for tools from leading manufacturers are similar in both Taiwan and the U.S., mitigating location-based cost differences [2]. - Labor costs in the U.S. are approximately three times higher than in Taiwan; however, due to advanced automation, labor constitutes less than 2% of total costs in wafer manufacturing [2]. TSMC's Production and Logistics - TSMC's wafers produced in Arizona are sent back to Taiwan for cutting, testing, and packaging, complicating logistics but not significantly increasing costs. TSMC plans to build packaging capacity in the U.S. [2]. - TSMC reportedly charges a 30% premium for chips produced in the U.S. [2]. Revenue Distribution by Node - In 2024, nearly 50% of TSMC's revenue will come from nodes that are five years old or older, such as 7nm and above, contrasting with Intel's strategy of shutting down older nodes [3][4]. - Advanced nodes (3nm and 5nm combined) contribute 52% of revenue but only 27% of profit, indicating that profitability is still developing for these newer technologies [6][9]. Profitability Insights - The 3nm and 5nm nodes were reported to be operating at a loss in 2023, but profitability is expected to improve as production ramps up [9]. - TSMC's financial health is bolstered by older nodes that have fully depreciated, while newer nodes still carry depreciation costs [11]. Methodology - The analysis of TSMC's profitability by node involves estimating costs based on revenue shares and accounting for depreciation, R&D, and operational expenses [12].