近日，美国商务部负责出口管制的助理部长肯德勒（Thea Kendler）在硅谷一次闭门会上大放厥词，声称 "中国半导体所谓 7nm 乃至 5nm 的突破只是「实 验室里给领导看的样品」，离规模化、商用化还差十万八千里。封锁一天不松，他们就一天造不出能用的先进芯片" 。 再看看 5nm 芯片领域，面对美国 "无 EUV 难造 5nm" 的断言，中国科研人员另辟蹊径，利用深紫外光刻机（DUV）结合自对准四重图案化（SAQP）技 术，成功将 28nm DUV 光刻精度压缩至 5nm 级别，套刻误差精准控制在 2nm 内，实现了对物理分辨率极限的突破。 事实并非如此！ 先看 7nm 芯片，中芯国际通过技术创新，在 N+2 工艺上取得了显著进展。该工艺采用了多重曝光等先进技术，实现了 12 层芯片的堆叠，其性能已能对 标台积电的 7nm 制程。更为关键的是，中芯国际的 N+2 工艺良率已成功突破 70%，这一成绩绝非 "实验室样品" 所能比拟，而是迈向规模化生产的坚实 一步。 与此同时，国产半导体产业链上的其他环节也在协同发力，半导体级硅片和光刻胶的纯度不断提升，大大降低了因材料缺陷引发的芯片失效问题，为 7nm 芯片 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1][11]. Core Insights - The company has raised its revenue guidance for 2025, indicating potential for further upward revisions in the future [3][10]. - The Q2 2025 financial results exceeded expectations, with revenue of NT$9,337.9 billion (US$300.7 billion), a QoQ increase of 11.3% and YoY increase of 38.6% [5][10]. - The company expects a revenue growth rate of approximately 30% for 2025, up from a previous mid-20% estimate [7][10]. - The gross margin for Q2 2025 was reported at 58.6%, slightly lower QoQ but higher YoY, indicating strong demand for advanced process nodes [7][10]. Financial Performance Summary - Q2 2025 revenue breakdown: 7nm, 5nm, and 3nm processes accounted for 14%, 36%, and 24% of wafer revenue, respectively, with advanced processes (7nm and below) making up 74% of total wafer revenue [7][10]. - The diluted EPS for Q2 2025 was NT$15.36, surpassing Bloomberg's consensus estimate [7][10]. - The company anticipates Q3 2025 revenue between US$318 billion and US$330 billion, which is above market expectations [7][10]. Forecasts - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are NT$36,862 billion, NT$42,199 billion, and NT$52,677 billion, respectively, with corresponding net profits of NT$15,676 billion, NT$17,505 billion, and NT$21,946 billion [9][10]. - The diluted EPS estimates for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are NT$60.46, NT$67.51, and NT$84.64, respectively [9][10]. - The report assigns a target price of NT$1,350.33 based on a 20x PE for the 2026 EPS [10].

Core Insights - Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited (TSM) reported second-quarter 2025 earnings per share (EPS) of $2.47, reflecting a year-over-year increase of 60.7% and surpassing Zacks Consensus Estimates by 4.2% [1][10] - TSM's net revenues for the second quarter reached $30.07 billion, marking a 44.4% increase year over year and exceeding Zacks Consensus Estimate by 0.1% [1][10] Financial Performance - TSM's revenue distribution by platform in the second quarter was as follows: high-performance computing (60%), smartphone (27%), Internet of Things (5%), automotive (5%), digital consumer electronics (1%), and other segments (2%) [2] - The largest contribution to wafer revenues came from 5nm technology, accounting for 36% of total wafer revenues, followed by 3nm at 24% and 7nm at 14% [3][4] - Geographically, North America was the dominant contributor, accounting for 75% of total revenues, while China and the Asia Pacific region each contributed 9%, Japan 4%, and EMEA 3% [5] Margins and Cash Flow - TSM's gross margin was reported at 58.6%, an expansion of 540 basis points year over year, while the operating margin was 49.6%, expanding 710 basis points [6] - The net profit margin stood at 42.7%, reflecting an increase of 590 basis points [6] - As of June 30, 2025, TSM had cash and cash equivalents totaling $90.36 billion, an increase from $81.4 billion at the end of the previous quarter [7] Guidance - For the third quarter of 2025, TSM expects revenues to range between $31.8 billion and $33.0 billion, with a projected gross profit margin between 55.5% and 57.5% and an operating profit margin between 45.5% and 47.5% [9] - For the entirety of 2025, TSM anticipates a revenue increase of approximately 30% in U.S. dollars [9]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of $300 [7][24]. Core Insights - The company reported Q2 2025 revenue of $30.07 billion, exceeding guidance due to strong demand for 3nm and 5nm processes, with a gross margin of 58.6% [1][12]. - The company raised its 2025 revenue growth guidance to approximately 30%, up from nearly 25% previously, and expects capital expenditures to remain between $38 billion and $42 billion [1][14]. - The report highlights the ongoing strong demand for AI and HPC, with HPC revenue increasing by 14% quarter-over-quarter, now accounting for 60% of total revenue [2][12]. Revenue and Profitability - The company expects Q3 2025 revenue to be between $31.8 billion and $33.0 billion, with a gross margin forecast of 55.5% to 57.5% [1][14]. - The revenue forecast for 2025-2027 has been adjusted upward by 1.9%, 1.7%, and 1.1% respectively, while net profit estimates have been adjusted to NT$1,528 billion, NT$1,820 billion, and NT$2,156 billion [5][24]. Capacity and Technology - The company maintains its capital expenditure budget for 2025 at $38 billion to $42 billion, with ongoing production plans for N2 and A16 processes [4][30]. - The report emphasizes the tight supply-demand balance for N3 and N5 nodes, with expectations for increased AI product transitions to N3 in the coming years [31]. Market Position and Valuation - The company is positioned as a leader in semiconductor foundry services, with a projected PE ratio of 25x for 2026, compared to a median of 21x for comparable companies [5][26]. - The target price of $300 reflects a significant increase from the previous target of $227.98, based on the anticipated growth in earnings per share [24][26].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the current state and future prospects of semiconductor manufacturing, particularly focusing on the challenges and methodologies involved in producing advanced nodes like 5nm and 3nm without EUV lithography. It emphasizes the importance of transistor density as a key metric for evaluating semiconductor technology advancements. Group 1: Semiconductor Manufacturing Techniques - DUV lithography combined with multiple exposure techniques can theoretically produce 5nm chips, and even 3nm under extreme conditions, although this approach is costly and not commonly adopted by mainstream foundries [5][23][48]. - The concept of "5nm" has evolved from a direct measurement of line width to a symbolic representation of a process node, with actual transistor gate lengths often exceeding the nominal node size [6][12][23]. Group 2: Transistor Density and Performance - Transistor density (MTr/mm²) is a more relevant metric than line width for comparing semiconductor technologies, as it reflects the number of transistors that can fit in a given area [13][21]. - The article provides a comparative analysis of transistor densities across various nodes, highlighting that the upcoming domestic 5nm technology may only achieve densities comparable to optimized 7nm processes [14][49]. Group 3: Industry Competition and Challenges - The competition among major players like TSMC, Intel, and Samsung is intense, with each company defining process nodes differently, leading to discrepancies in reported capabilities [21][22]. - The article points out that while Samsung claims to have achieved 5nm production, its actual transistor density and yield rates are significantly lower than those of TSMC, raising questions about the validity of such claims [15][21]. Group 4: Future Prospects and Technological Innovations - The semiconductor industry is expected to continue advancing, with predictions of achieving one trillion transistors on a single GPU chip within the next decade, driven by innovations beyond traditional lithography [19][48]. - The article stresses the need for domestic semiconductor manufacturers to focus on improving deposition and etching equipment, as these are critical for achieving high yields and performance in advanced nodes [48][50].

Core Viewpoint - TSMC is positioned at the center of the AI supercycle, leveraging its advanced 3nm and 5nm chip manufacturing capabilities to drive significant revenue growth and maintain strong pricing power [1][14]. Revenue Growth and Structure - TSMC's revenue growth is attributed to its advanced manufacturing technologies at nodes like 2nm, 3nm, and 5nm, with 3nm revenue contributing 26% of total wafer revenue in Q4 FY2024, up from 20% in Q3 FY2024 and 15% in Q4 FY2023 [1][3]. - The company's total revenue for Q4 FY2024 reached NT$868.46 billion, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 38.8%, driven by increased demand for AI accelerators, data centers, and HPC chips [3][14]. - The revenue from HPC increased from 43% in Q4 FY2023 to 53% in Q4 FY2024, while smartphone revenue decreased from 43% to 35% during the same period, indicating a shift in demand towards AI-related applications [3][13]. Technological Advancements - TSMC's roadmap includes the potential mass production of 2nm technology in the second half of FY2025, which could enhance speed by 10-15% at the same power or reduce power consumption by 25-30% at the same speed [6]. - The company expects to launch N2P and A16 nodes in FY2026, further driving demand for advanced semiconductor technologies [6]. Financial Performance and Projections - TSMC's revenue for January FY2025 was NT$293.29 billion, a 5.4% increase from December FY2024 and a 35.9% increase year-on-year, demonstrating resilience despite production disruptions from a 6.4 magnitude earthquake [6][10]. - The revenue for February FY2025 was NT$260.01 billion, reflecting an 11.3% month-on-month decline but a 43.1% year-on-year increase, indicating ongoing expansion and the growing adoption of advanced semiconductor processes [7]. Future Outlook and Challenges - TSMC forecasts over US$25.4 billion in revenue for Q1 FY2025, a 5.5% decrease from Q4 FY2024 but a 34.7% year-on-year increase, highlighting ongoing high-value contracts in advanced chip manufacturing [10]. - The company anticipates a 2% to 3% annual decline in gross margin over the next five years due to the expansion of overseas manufacturing facilities, which may dilute profitability [10][11]. - TSMC's growth increasingly relies on HPC platforms and AI-related applications, which introduces market vulnerability, as non-AI segments like smartphones show only moderate growth [13][14]. Dependency on Specific Markets - TSMC's reliance on CoWoS capacity, primarily for AI applications, raises concerns about revenue stability, especially if AI investment slows down due to market uncertainties [14].

Core Viewpoint - TSMC's wafer production costs in Arizona are only about 10% higher than those in Taiwan, contrary to the belief that U.S. production is prohibitively expensive [1][2]. Cost Factors - Equipment costs account for over two-thirds of semiconductor production costs, and prices for tools from leading manufacturers are similar in both Taiwan and the U.S., mitigating location-based cost differences [2]. - Labor costs in the U.S. are approximately three times higher than in Taiwan; however, due to advanced automation, labor constitutes less than 2% of total costs in wafer manufacturing [2]. TSMC's Production and Logistics - TSMC's wafers produced in Arizona are sent back to Taiwan for cutting, testing, and packaging, complicating logistics but not significantly increasing costs. TSMC plans to build packaging capacity in the U.S. [2]. - TSMC reportedly charges a 30% premium for chips produced in the U.S. [2]. Revenue Distribution by Node - In 2024, nearly 50% of TSMC's revenue will come from nodes that are five years old or older, such as 7nm and above, contrasting with Intel's strategy of shutting down older nodes [3][4]. - Advanced nodes (3nm and 5nm combined) contribute 52% of revenue but only 27% of profit, indicating that profitability is still developing for these newer technologies [6][9]. Profitability Insights - The 3nm and 5nm nodes were reported to be operating at a loss in 2023, but profitability is expected to improve as production ramps up [9]. - TSMC's financial health is bolstered by older nodes that have fully depreciated, while newer nodes still carry depreciation costs [11]. Methodology - The analysis of TSMC's profitability by node involves estimating costs based on revenue shares and accounting for depreciation, R&D, and operational expenses [12].