Core Viewpoint - Leap Motor's Q3 2025 financial report shows mixed results, with revenue exceeding expectations but net profit declining due to increased expenses [1][4]. Revenue Performance - Total revenue for Q3 reached 19.45 billion, significantly surpassing market expectations of 18.33 billion, primarily due to the recognition of 2.5 billion in carbon credit income and a rebound in vehicle selling prices [1][4]. - The average selling price of vehicles increased to 112,000, up by 6,000 from the previous quarter, contrary to market expectations of a decline [1][4]. Profitability Metrics - The vehicle gross margin rose by 0.9 percentage points to 14.5%, exceeding the market expectation of 12.9%, driven by higher selling prices, carbon credit income, and economies of scale [1][4]. - Despite the positive gross margin, net profit fell to 150 million, below the market expectation of 200 million, due to increased operating expenses [2][4]. Expense Analysis - R&D expenses increased to 1.2 billion, reflecting ongoing investments in smart technology and channel expansion [1][2]. - Selling expenses rose to 950 million, exceeding market expectations, as the company expanded its retail channels and increased marketing efforts [2][4]. Future Outlook - For Q4 and 2026, the company aims for a gross margin of 14%-15% and a net profit of 500-1,000 million for the full year 2025, with projected sales of 580,000 to 650,000 vehicles [5][6]. - The company is implementing promotional strategies to boost sales, including cash subsidies on various models, and anticipates Q4 sales to reach 218,000 vehicles, a 25% increase from the previous quarter [6][4]. Competitive Positioning - Leap Motor's strategy focuses on high vertical integration and self-sourcing, aiming to enhance cost advantages and offer high-value models to price-sensitive consumers [9]. - The partnership with Stellantis is expected to strengthen Leap Motor's overseas expansion, leveraging Stellantis's brand and distribution channels in Europe [9].

Core Viewpoint - Zhaoyin International reports that Leap Motor (09863) maintains robust profitability in its automotive business for Q3, with a revenue increase of 37% quarter-on-quarter to 19.5 billion RMB, exceeding previous forecasts by 5% due to higher-than-expected average selling prices [1] Financial Performance - Q3 gross margin increased by 0.9 percentage points to 14.5% quarter-on-quarter [1] - The combined expense ratio for sales management and R&D decreased by 1.8 percentage points to 14.3%, aligning with forecasts [1] - Net profit remained stable at 150 million RMB, primarily influenced by non-automotive business factors [1] Future Outlook - Q4 profitability is expected to be more resilient, with a sales forecast increase of 20,000 units to 620,000 units for 2025, implying a 29% increase in Q4 sales volume to 224,000 units [1] - After considering potential carbon credit income of 500 million RMB, Q4 net profit is anticipated to increase 4.5 times quarter-on-quarter to 677 million RMB [1] - Strong sales momentum is projected to continue into 2026, with over 25,000 new orders from Europe in October and November 2025 [1] Sales Targets - Leap Motor's overseas sales target of 100,000 to 150,000 units for 2026 is deemed achievable [1] - Total sales are expected to grow by 52% year-on-year to 940,000 units in 2026, driven by the launch of the Lafa5 and four new models (two D series and two A series) [1] - The newly unveiled D19 model has received significantly higher pre-order volumes than management expectations, enhancing confidence in the A series models for the upcoming year [1]

Core Viewpoint - Zhaoyin International reports that Leap Motor (09863) maintains robust profitability in its automotive business for Q3, with revenue increasing by 37% quarter-on-quarter to RMB 19.5 billion, exceeding previous forecasts by 5% due to higher-than-expected average selling prices [1] Financial Performance - Q3 gross margin increased by 0.9 percentage points to 14.5% quarter-on-quarter [1] - Combined sales, management, and R&D expense ratios decreased by 1.8 percentage points to 14.3%, aligning with forecasts [1] - Net profit remained stable at RMB 150 million, primarily influenced by non-automotive business factors [1] Future Outlook - Q4 profitability is expected to be more resilient, with sales forecasted to increase by 29% quarter-on-quarter to 224,000 units, raising the 2025 sales forecast by 20,000 units to 620,000 units [1] - Anticipated net profit for Q4 could increase 4.5 times quarter-on-quarter to RMB 677 million, considering potential carbon credit income of RMB 500 million [1] - Strong sales momentum is projected to continue into 2026, with over 25,000 new orders from Europe in October-November 2025 [1] Sales Targets - Leap Motor's overseas sales target of 100,000 to 150,000 units for 2026 is deemed achievable [1] - Total sales are expected to grow by 52% year-on-year to 940,000 units in 2026, driven by the launch of the Lafa5 and four new models (two D series and two A series) [1] - The D19 model, unveiled on October 16, has received significantly higher pre-order volumes than management expectations, enhancing confidence in the A series models for the following year [1]

Core Insights - Leap Motor reported a significant revenue increase of 174% year-on-year, reaching 24.25 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, with a net profit of 30 million yuan, marking its first positive half-year profit [1][2] - The company raised its annual sales guidance from 500,000-600,000 units to 580,000-650,000 units, with a target of 170,000-180,000 units for Q3 [1][4] - Leap Motor aims to achieve a sales target of 1 million units in 2026, supported by new model launches and existing series [1][3] Financial Performance - Revenue for the first half of 2025 was 24.25 billion yuan, a 174% increase from 8.85 billion yuan in the same period of 2024, driven by a significant rise in vehicle deliveries [2] - The total delivery volume reached 221,664 units, a 155.7% increase year-on-year, making Leap Motor the top-selling new energy vehicle brand in China [2] - The gross margin improved to 14.1%, up from 1.1% in 2024, nearing levels of competitors like Tesla and Li Auto [2][3] Research and Development - R&D expenditure for the first half of 2025 was 1.89 billion yuan, a 54.9% increase from 1.22 billion yuan in 2024, reflecting increased investment in smart driving technology [3] - The company plans to enhance its smart driving capabilities, aiming to reach a leading position in the domestic market by the end of 2025 [3] Market Strategy - Leap Motor plans to launch multiple new models in the second half of 2025, including the B05 at the Munich Auto Show and the D series, which will debut in Q1 2026 [5] - The company is focusing on maintaining a competitive edge in the domestic market while targeting 50,000-80,000 units in overseas sales without raising the current overseas sales target [5][6] - Leap Motor has initiated local assembly projects in Malaysia and plans to establish local production in Europe for its B series models [6]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 88.93 HKD [7][8] Core Insights - The company achieved record sales and reported its first half-year profit, with H1 2025 revenue reaching 24.25 billion HKD, a year-on-year increase of 174.15%, and a net profit of 0.33 billion HKD, marking a turnaround from losses [1][2] - The company is expected to maintain high revenue growth from 2025 to 2027, driven by strong sales momentum, competitive models across four major platforms, accelerated overseas market expansion, and strategic partnerships [1][5] Revenue Performance - In Q2 2025, the company sold 134,000 vehicles, a year-on-year increase of 152% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 53%, with July sales exceeding 50,000 units [2] - The sales structure is improving, with B/C platform vehicles accounting for 57.6% and 24.4% of sales in Q2 2025, while the lower-priced T03 model's share decreased to 18.0% [2] Profitability - The company achieved a gross margin of 14.1% in H1 2025, a year-on-year increase of 13.0 percentage points, and a net profit margin of 1.1% in Q2 2025, reflecting improved cost management and sales structure [3][4] - The report anticipates stable gross margins moving forward, with Q2 2025 net profit expected to continue its upward trend [3] Future Outlook - A strong new vehicle cycle is anticipated in 2025-2026, with multiple new models set to launch across various platforms [4] - The company is expanding its domestic and international presence, with plans to increase its store coverage and accelerate localization efforts in overseas markets [4] - Strategic collaborations and self-manufactured core components are expected to enhance revenue and profitability [4] Earnings Forecast and Valuation - The earnings forecast has been revised upward, with projected sales of 640,000, 1,030,000, and 1,416,000 vehicles for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, reflecting growth rates of 6.69%, 28.75%, and 37.16% [5][12] - Revenue projections for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are set at 74.53 billion, 128.73 billion, and 170.75 billion HKD, with corresponding net profits expected to reach 1.13 billion, 5.24 billion, and 8.25 billion HKD [5][15]