2026 年 01 月 09 日 晨会纪要 研究所： 证券分析师： 余春生 S0350513090001 yucs@ghzq.com.cn [Table_Title] 晨会纪要 ——2026 年第 4 期 观点精粹: 事件: 近期，部分地方政府债的借贷量有所增加，本文对此展开一定分析。 点评: 最新报告摘要 交易盘借贷做空地方债了吗？--固定收益点评 2025 年销量创新高，看好硬派越野扩容--长城汽车/乘用车(601633/212805) 公司点评 2025 年圆满收官，2026 年销量目标 345 万辆--零跑汽车/乘用车(09863/212805) 点评报告（港股美股） 乐舒适（2698.HK）深度报告：非洲卫生用品龙头，本土化护城河深厚--乐舒适/个护用品(02698/217701) 公 司 PPT 报告（港股美股） "AI+制造"政策重磅发布，或将驱动工业软件需求释放--事件点评 证券研究报告 1、最新报告摘要 1.1、交易盘借贷做空地方债了吗？--固定收益点评 分析师：颜子琦 S0350525090002 分析师：洪子彦 S0350525100001 本篇报告解决了以下核心问题：1、近期地方政府债 ...

行 业 及 产 业 行 业 研 究 / 行 业 点 评 相关研究 《关注中升控股；福达股份、恒勃股份更 新——一周一刻钟，大事快评（W138）》 2025/12/30 证券分析师 戴文杰 A0230522100006 daiwj@swsresearch.com 联系人 邵翼 A0230524120001 shaoyi@swsresearch.com 2026 年 01 月 07 日 补贴政策受益分析；小鹏、零跑、 长城销量解读 证 券 研 究 报 告 汽车 ⚫ 补贴政策受益分析：2026 年新能源汽车购置税补贴政策从"一刀切"模式调整为分档 等比例补贴，导致单车补贴金额出现小幅下降。以 2025 年 Q4 销量结构为基准的测算显 示，政策影响呈现显结构性差异：中低端车型占比越高的企业，补贴退坡幅度越大。其 中吉利、比亚迪补贴退坡幅度较大，而小鹏、长城、零跑受影响相对较小，15-20 万以 上的高端品牌基本不受本次政策调整影响。我们认为本次补贴政策调整将显著重塑2026 年新能源汽车销量结构。此前依赖补贴支撑的 A0 级及 A00 级低端车型需求预计将显著 降低，中高端新能源车型及整体 ASP 较高的企业将在 ...

Core Viewpoint - Leap Motor has achieved significant milestones in 2023, including surpassing its annual sales target of 500,000 units and expanding its product line with the new A and D series, targeting price ranges from 60,000 to 300,000 yuan [1][4][7]. Group 1: Strategic Partnerships and Investments - Leap Motor has entered a strategic partnership with FAW Group, which will invest 3.744 billion yuan to acquire a 5% stake in the company, marking the first investment by a state-owned enterprise in a new energy vehicle startup [4][6]. - The collaboration will involve joint research and development of hybrid and extended-range powertrains, enhancing Leap Motor's technological capabilities and resource sharing [4][6]. Group 2: Growth and Future Goals - Leap Motor aims to double its sales to 1 million units by 2026 and establish itself as a world-class smart electric vehicle manufacturer, aspiring to rank among the top 10 globally [7][8]. - The company has set ambitious sales targets, with expectations of significant contributions from its new A series and continued success from its B and C series models [62][70]. Group 3: Historical Context and Development - Leap Motor's journey began in 2015, with founder Zhu Jiangming leveraging his experience from the security industry to enter the automotive sector, driven by the belief that China could achieve breakthroughs in electric vehicles [15][18]. - The company faced early challenges, including low sales of its first model, the S01, which sold only 1,086 units in 2019, and a critical cash shortage in 2020 [22][24]. Group 4: Technological Advancements and Competitive Edge - Leap Motor has focused on developing its own technologies, such as the CTC battery integration and advanced driving assistance systems, which have become key competitive advantages [37][44]. - The company has established a robust in-house manufacturing system, producing 65% of its vehicle components internally, with plans to increase this to 80% [44][46]. Group 5: Market Position and Global Expansion - In 2023, Leap Motor delivered over 500,000 vehicles in China, with expectations for its new A series to drive further growth [62][63]. - The company has partnered with Stellantis, which holds an 18.99% stake, to facilitate its entry into international markets, with plans for local production in Malaysia and Europe [67][70].

Core Viewpoint - The new energy vehicle market in 2025 did not experience a significant year-end surge, but several companies achieved substantial annual growth in deliveries, with Leap Motor and Xpeng Motors doubling their delivery volumes, while NIO saw a 46.88% year-on-year increase. Li Auto, however, struggled to regain its peak performance due to unmet expectations in its pure electric strategy [1]. Group 1: Company Performance - Leap Motor delivered 60,423 vehicles in December 2025, marking a year-on-year increase of 42.11%, and achieved a total of 596,555 deliveries for the year, a 103.1% increase, setting a new record for new energy vehicle sales [2][3]. - NIO's December deliveries reached 48,135 vehicles, a historical monthly high with a year-on-year growth of 54.59%. The total deliveries for 2025 amounted to 326,028 vehicles, reflecting a 46.88% increase [5]. - Li Auto delivered 44,246 vehicles in December, with a total of 406,343 for the year, representing an 18.81% decline. However, it became the first new energy brand to surpass 1.54 million cumulative deliveries [7]. - Xpeng Motors achieved 429,445 deliveries in 2025, a significant year-on-year increase of 125.94%, although December deliveries were 37,508, falling short of its quarterly guidance [9]. Group 2: Market Trends and Future Outlook - The absence of a year-end surge in the 2025 car market was confirmed by industry analysts, with government policies expected to stabilize the market in 2026 [11]. - Leap Motor aims to reach a delivery target of one million vehicles in 2026, with new models from the A and D series set to launch [3]. - NIO's ES8 model has become a key contributor to sales, with a significant number of orders expected to mitigate performance dips in early 2026 [5]. - Li Auto is focusing on expanding its overseas market presence to alleviate domestic competition pressures [7]. - Xpeng Motors plans to introduce seven new models with advanced configurations in 2026, aiming to significantly expand its market reach [9].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [5]. Core Views - Leap Motor plans to issue 74.832 million domestic shares to FAW at a price of HKD 50.03 per share, totaling HKD 3.744 billion. Approximately 50% of the funds will be allocated for R&D, 25% for operational capital, and 25% for expanding sales and service networks [2][4][6]. - The company is expected to benefit from a strong domestic new car cycle, driving continuous sales growth, while its partnership with Stellantis will facilitate a light-asset overseas expansion, enhancing global sales potential [4][6]. - The projected net profits for Leap Motor from 2025 to 2027 are estimated at CNY 6.3 billion, CNY 5.0 billion, and CNY 8.37 billion, with corresponding P/E ratios of 102.5X, 13.0X, and 7.7X [4]. Summary by Relevant Sections Domestic Market - The company leverages its technological foundation to create a strong price-performance ratio, which is expected to enhance sales during the ongoing new car cycle. Scale effects and product structure optimization are anticipated to improve profitability [4][6]. Overseas Market - The collaboration with Stellantis, the fourth-largest automotive group globally, allows Leap Motor to utilize Stellantis's extensive sales and after-sales network and production capacity for a rapid and flexible overseas expansion. This partnership is expected to yield significant profit contributions from high single-vehicle profitability [4][6]. Product Development and Sales Network - Leap Motor plans to launch 2-3 new products globally each year over the next three years, with several models already introduced in 2025. The company has established a robust domestic sales network with 866 sales outlets across 292 cities and has expanded its international presence with over 700 sales and service points in approximately 30 international markets [6].

此刻，舞台上的双旗舰闪耀着自主创新的光芒，未来十年400万辆的战略蓝图徐徐展开。这十年，是零跑与中国新能源汽车产业共成长的十年，是工 程师们以匠心对抗浮躁的十年，更是与用户双向奔赴、彼此成就的十年。向上，是穿越周期的执着；领跑，是技术报国的担当。站在新的起点，零跑的故 事，才刚刚写下最精彩的序章。 12月28日，当2025年的冬阳洒满杭州奥体中心"小莲花"的穹顶，灯光亮起时，一场跨越十年的奔赴在此刻抵达顶点。零跑汽车十周年发布会的幕布拉 开，GALA乐队《追梦赤子心》的旋律穿透声场，与现场千余名嘉宾的掌声交织——这不仅是一场发布会，更是对一段 "不被看好却逆势生长" 的创业史 诗的深情回望，是对千万用户陪伴的温柔致谢，更是向世界级目标发起冲锋的庄严宣告。 十年前的2015年，电子工程师朱江明带着"IT改变汽车"的朴素愿景，率领一支90%都是工程师的初创团队，从IT跨界闯入造车赛道。彼时，新能源汽 车产业尚在萌芽，近百家新势力逐鹿中原，零跑的"全域自研"之路被视作异想天开的"笑话"。而十年后的今天，这里有累计超120万辆的用户信赖，有年 销近60万辆的新势力销冠成绩单，有覆盖35国、超1800家的全球渠道网络， ...

（文/观察者网 张家栋 编辑/高莘） 12月28日，在零跑汽车成立十周年的发布会上，零跑汽车董事长朱江明用了近一个小时，完整回顾了这 家造车新势力从"零起步"的十年历程，并宣布了其未来战略规划。 与以往更多聚焦产品和销量不同，本次发布会零跑与朱江明给出的，是一个阶段性总结式的判断：前十 年，零跑完成了"掌握技术、找到造车的感觉"；下一个十年，则是迈向"世界级智能电动车企"的步伐。 零跑十周年"向上，领跑"标语 文中未标注图片均来自观察者网 值得关注的是，在发布会现场，零跑首次提出"向上，领跑"的口号。相较于过去长期强调的"好而不 贵""技术驱动性价比"，这一变化不止是简单的品牌修辞，而是零跑对自身发展阶段的重新定位——从 证明生存能力，走向讨论产业地位。 不典型的新势力路径 零跑汽车董事长朱江明 零跑汽车官网 没有互联网公司的流量优势，也不是传统车企孵化的转型项目，而是由一位长期深耕安防与电子产业的 工程师，在新能源汽车窗口期选择跨界从零造车。 这种背景，决定了零跑最初与其他新势力全然不同的入局方式。 相比同期蔚、小、理等知名新势力企业从品牌、智能化叙事或高端定位切入市场，零跑选择了一条更偏 工程与制造导向的 ...

2025年12月24日，零跑汽车迎来创立十周年。从2015年跨界入局备受质疑，到全年销量逼近60万辆、连续季度盈利，这家自主品牌以十年坚守实现从"门 外汉"到"领跑者"的逆袭。在新能源汽车重塑全球竞争的今天，零跑的征程不仅是一家企业的成长史诗，更揭示了中国汽车从"跟跑"到"领跑"的核心密码 ——以全域自研筑牢根基，以用户至上赢得市场，以全球布局开拓未来。 十年磨一剑：全域自研的孤勇与远见 零跑的十年，是中国品牌坚持核心技术自主的缩影。创始人朱江明在跨界造车之初便确立"全域自研"道路，将占整车成本65%的核心零部件纳入自研范 畴，从三电系统到中央域控，从智能驾驶算法到底盘一体化技术，拒绝依赖外部"攒车"。这一选择最终成为零跑穿越行业周期的关键。 自研始终紧扣用户痛点。针对北方冬季用车难题，普及耐寒密封胶条与智能温控系统；面对智能驾驶需求，将高阶功能下放至10万级车型，提供"傻瓜式 倒车"、窄路辅助等实用配置。2025年，LEAP3.5中央域控、800V高压平台、OneBox制动系统等核心技术量产，使零跑成为少数全产业链自主掌控的车 企。 自研还带来成本优势。通过核心部件自研自制，零跑将零部件环节10%的毛利率让 ...

今年11月，零跑汽车交付70327台，连续9个月位列新势力品牌销量冠军。 这家坐落在杭州的车企，用了十年时间一步步做到了"领跑"。 2025年12月24日，零跑汽车十周年这一天，创始人、董事长兼CEO朱江明发布了一封内部信，叙说着对过往的复盘，展露着对当下的清醒，对未来的笃 定。 2019至2025年，朱江明发布的七封内部信，都有一个最鲜明的特性： 2025年12月24日，零跑汽车迎来十周岁生日。 没有华丽的辞藻，没有宏大的叙事。 只有朱江明发布的一封内部信。 十年间，朱江明一共发布了七封内部信，串联起了零跑从初创到盈利、从本土到全球的发展轨迹，而十周年这封沉甸甸的信函，更是将"务实可靠、以终 为始"的企业基因推向了新的高度。 本文首发于亿欧汽车 在这封内部信里，朱江明的笔触审慎且坚定："过去的十年我们很难，可以说是九死一生。现在我们也才刚过温饱线，远远没到庆功的时候。站在新十年 的起点，从跟跑到领跑，这要求我们不能再以'新势力'自居，而要以一家可持续发展、值得尊敬的世界级车企来要求自己。" 维度一：拒绝空谈，行胜于言， 作者｜郝秋慧 从2019年起，零跑每年生日这一天，创始人朱江明都会以一封内部信为企业纪年 ...

关于十年核心成果，朱江明指出，零跑已证明全域自研并非口号，成功实现LEAP3.5中央域控、800V高压平台等 核心技术快速量产，建立起有竞争力的核心零部件自造体系，且规模化优势将随销量提升进一步凸显；同时，零 跑验证了"好而不贵"的产品路线是主流，今年推出的B10、B01等多款车型上市即热销，其中C10月销突破2万辆， 旗舰D系列首款车型D19、智能精品A系列首款车型A10亮相即获用户期待。 全球化布局方面，零跑步伐持续加速。今年累计拓展35个海外市场，海外门店超800家，全年海外交付有望突破6 万辆；与Stellantis集团的合作协同效应逐步显现，零跑正加速向"世界的零跑"迈进。此外，公司体系能力同步夯 实，通过营销端与运营端的精细化、数字化管理，实现了效率与品质的双提升。朱江明强调，这些成绩的取得源 于零跑坚持长期主义，秉持"技术创新、务实稳健"的发展理念。 面对新十年，朱江明明确表示，零跑已度过"九死一生"的初创阶段，但刚过温饱线，远未到庆功时刻。未来需摒 弃"新势力"定位，以"可持续发展、值得尊敬的世界级车企"为标准要求自己，并锚定2026年年销百万辆的目标， 重点强化四项核心能力： 12月24日， ...