数说新能源 欢迎订购2026年月度电池装机数据库、中国汽车上险数据库、月度锂电排产数据、海外汽车销量、汽车零售和批发 销量、中国储能产业数据库、 全球锂电产能数据库 联系方式：13220160736（同微信） 出海：寻找油电价差扩大、低渗透率区域的弹性品种 低渗透率（10-15%）和高油电价差下（涨幅20%+），东南亚与澳洲是这一轮冲突后电车边际最 受益的市场，其次为欧洲、拉美。 【比亚迪】：海外市场布局全面，26 年海外目标销量160万辆（欧洲/亚太/拉美各占 1/3），本土 产能密集落地（印尼 Q1、匈牙利 Q2 投产）；冲突后澳/泰/马来订单翻2-3 倍，26 年出海贡献 320 亿利润（占比约 70%），为核心业绩支柱。 【吉利汽车】：轻资产出海，以PHEV为核心、马来宝腾工厂为支点辐射东南亚；26 年出海目标 75万辆，新能源出口 40 万辆（+215%），银河E5/星舰7 EM-i 成爆款，出海贡献78亿利润（占比超35%），盈利弹 性显著。 【零跑汽车】：与stellantis合资出海，26 年西班牙工厂量产 B10规避关税，经济型纯电小车精准 契合海外低成本补能需求，适配低渗透率市场，具备放量 ...

证 券 研 究 报 告 零跑汽车（09863.HK）2025 年四季报点评 强推（维持） 25Q4 盈利创新高，新车+出海经营稳步向上 目标价：61.68 港元 事项： ❖ 零跑汽车发布 2025 年四季报，4Q25 实现营收 210 亿元，同比+56%，环比 +8.1%；净利润 3.6 亿元，同比+2.8 亿元，环比+2.1 亿元。2025 年全年实现营 收 647 亿元、同比+1.0 倍；净利润 5.4 亿元，同比+34 亿元。 评论： [主要财务指标 Indicator_FinchinaSimpleHK] | | 2025A | 2026E | 2027E | 2028E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入(百万元) | 64,732 | 110,305 | 135,318 | 138,863 | | 同比增速(%) | 101.3% | 70.4% | 22.7% | 2.6% | | 归母净利润(百万元) | 538 | 5,140 | 7,520 | 8,522 | | 同比增速(%) | 119.1% | 854.7% | 46.3% | 13.3 ...

公司点评 | 零跑汽车 25 全年业绩符合预期，26 年冲击销量百万目标 证券研究报告 2026 年 03 月 24 日 零跑汽车（09863.HK）2025 年报点评 事件：公司 25Q4 净利润 3.6 亿元，营收 210.3 亿，Q4 毛利率 15%，其中整 车毛利率约 12%，首次全年盈利。25 年全年营收 647.3 亿元，同比翻倍，主 要是受新车上市拉动。全年 Non-GAAP 净利 10.8 亿元，同比+34.3 亿元。 公司处于新品周期，将全面覆盖 10-30 万元价格带，有望驱动销量持续突破。 公司新车型发布节奏明确，A10 将于 3 月底正式上市；D 平台首发车型 D19 预计于 4 月启动销售；A05 与 D99 则计划在 6 月中下旬至 7 月初推向市场。 我们认为，这四款新车上市后将构成完整的 ABCD 品牌矩阵，公司将全面覆 盖 10-30 万元的价格区间。预计 26 年存量车型与新增车型销量占比为 6:4。 海外渠道持续布局，产品加速出口海外。1）渠道方面，公司 2025 年出口量 为新势力第一，超 6.7 万辆。2026 年欧洲网点将超 800 家，南美、亚太渠道 将大幅增加。 ...

"富士康"模式能否助力中国 车出海 出品|虎嗅汽车组 作者|杨杰 头图|视觉中国 当关税大棒砸碎旧世界的玻璃屋顶，曾经在汽车行业彼此竞争的对手，正在成为彼此活下去的选项之一。 本月初，彭博社一则报道引发行业关注：据知情人士透露，奔驰正与中国车企长城汽车商讨共享南非东伦 敦工厂的可能性，长城代表已向南非贸易、工业与竞争部提交提案。 不过，经虎嗅与双方核实，这一说法并未得到证实。长城汽车方面明确表示，并无相关合作洽谈；奔驰方 面同样予以否认。 抛开这起暂未得到证实的谈判传闻，彭博社报道所揭示的行业趋势却是真实的—— 那个"汽车品牌绝不与竞 争对手共享核心资产"的固有观念，正在被时代撬动。 这背后，站着两股正在重塑全球汽车业的力量：一是美国关税大棒挥舞下被迫重绘的贸易版图，二是中国 车企从"产品出海"到"产能整合"的范式跃迁。那么，面对全球市场的不稳定冲击，中国车企又将何去何 从，本期《车圈脉动》Vol.23带你解密。 导火索：关税制造出 的"畸形共生" 美国前总统特朗普去年8月对南非商品加征30%关税，直接击穿了奔驰东伦敦工厂的盈利逻辑。尽管美国最 高法院今年2月暂停了这一政策，但特朗普政府计划从本月起对全球输美 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The Q4 performance of the company met expectations, with a strong product cycle. The company achieved a total revenue of 21.03 billion yuan in Q4, representing a year-on-year increase of 56.3% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 8.1%. The net profit attributable to shareholders for Q4 was 360 million yuan, with a quarter-on-quarter increase of 136.9% [8] - The company has launched new models, including the Leaping LAFA5, which contributed to a total delivery of 180,000 vehicles by the end of 2025. The overall average selling price (ASP) for Q4 was 105,000 yuan, showing a year-on-year decrease of 4.8% but a quarter-on-quarter increase of 5.4% [8] - The gross margin for Q4 was 15.0%, reflecting a year-on-year improvement due to economies of scale and effective cost control [8] - The company has expanded its sales and service network to cover 295 cities with 950 locations by the end of 2025, and has established over 900 international sales and service points [8] Financial Summary - Total revenue projections for the company are as follows: 2024A: 32,164 million yuan, 2025A: 64,732 million yuan, 2026E: 109,932 million yuan, 2027E: 130,556 million yuan, and 2028E: 139,122 million yuan, with respective year-on-year growth rates of 92.06%, 101.25%, 69.83%, 18.76%, and 6.56% [1] - The net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to be (2,820.80) million yuan in 2024A, 538.39 million yuan in 2025A, 2,618.62 million yuan in 2026E, 4,504.42 million yuan in 2027E, and 6,938.15 million yuan in 2028E, with year-on-year growth rates of 33.10%, 119.09%, 386.38%, 72.01%, and 54.03% respectively [1] - The earnings per share (EPS) are forecasted to be (1.98) yuan in 2024A, 0.38 yuan in 2025A, 1.84 yuan in 2026E, 3.17 yuan in 2027E, and 4.88 yuan in 2028E [1] - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is expected to be (19.78) in 2024A, 103.64 in 2025A, 21.31 in 2026E, 12.39 in 2027E, and 8.04 in 2028E [1]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, expecting a relative performance increase of over 15% compared to the benchmark index within the next 6 to 12 months [12]. Core Insights - The company achieved a revenue of 64.73 billion yuan in 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 101.3%. The gross margin reached a record high of 14.5%, up by 6.1 percentage points year-on-year, with a quarterly gross margin of 15% in Q4 2025 [5][6]. - The company turned profitable in 2025 with a net profit of 540 million yuan, marking a significant turnaround from previous losses [5][6]. - The company is set to launch new models in 2026, including the A series and D series, which are expected to fill gaps in its current product lineup and contribute to increased sales [8]. Financial Performance Summary - Revenue projections for the company are as follows: 32.16 billion yuan in 2024, 64.73 billion yuan in 2025, 100.81 billion yuan in 2026, 138.68 billion yuan in 2027, and 163.5 billion yuan in 2028, with growth rates of 92%, 101%, 56%, 38%, and 18% respectively [4]. - The net profit forecast shows a recovery trajectory with estimates of -2.82 billion yuan in 2024, 538 million yuan in 2025, 4.82 billion yuan in 2026, 7.35 billion yuan in 2027, and 9.25 billion yuan in 2028, indicating a year-on-year growth of 33%, 119%, 796%, 52%, and 26% respectively [4]. - The company’s gross margin is projected to improve slightly to 15.1% in 2026 and further to 15.3% by 2028 [10]. Market Position and Expansion - The company ranked first among new energy vehicle manufacturers in terms of export volume, with 67,000 units exported in 2025 and over 100,000 units cumulatively by February 2026 [7]. - The company is actively expanding into the South American market, having launched models in Brazil and established a significant presence in Europe with over 800 outlets [7]. - The upcoming production of the B10 model in Spain is expected to enhance the company's local manufacturing capabilities and support its international growth strategy [8].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expected relative performance increase of over 15% against the benchmark index within the next 6 to 12 months [12] Core Insights - The company achieved a revenue of 64.73 billion yuan in 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 101.3%. The gross margin reached a record high of 14.5%, up by 6.1 percentage points year-on-year, with a quarterly gross margin of 15% in Q4 2025 [5][6] - The company turned profitable in 2025 with a net profit of 540 million yuan, marking a significant turnaround from previous losses [5][6] - The company is set to launch new models in 2026, including the A series and D series, which are expected to fill gaps in the current product lineup and contribute to increased sales [8] Financial Performance Summary - Revenue projections for the company are as follows: 32.16 billion yuan in 2024, 64.73 billion yuan in 2025, 100.81 billion yuan in 2026, 138.68 billion yuan in 2027, and 163.5 billion yuan in 2028, with growth rates of 92%, 101%, 56%, 38%, and 18% respectively [4] - The company’s net profit is projected to reach 4.82 billion yuan in 2026, 7.35 billion yuan in 2027, and 9.25 billion yuan in 2028, with year-on-year growth rates of 796%, 52%, and 26% respectively [4] - The earnings per share (EPS) is expected to be 0.38 yuan in 2025, 3.39 yuan in 2026, 5.17 yuan in 2027, and 6.51 yuan in 2028 [4] Market Position and Expansion - The company ranked first among new energy vehicle manufacturers in terms of export volume, with 67,000 vehicles exported in 2025 and over 100,000 cumulative exports by February 2026 [7] - The company is actively expanding into the South American market, with new models launched in Brazil and plans for further growth in this region [7] Future Outlook - The introduction of the A and D series models is anticipated to drive domestic sales upward, while the new factory in Spain is expected to commence production of the B10 model in October 2026 [8] - Despite adjustments in profit forecasts due to industry challenges, the company is expected to maintain strong growth driven by new vehicle cycles and international expansion [8]

2025 年度扭亏为盈，看好 A 系列和 D 系列新车 零跑汽车实现全年盈利。零跑汽车 25Q4 实现 20.1 万销量，同比增长 66%，带动 收入实现 210 亿元，同比增长 56.1%。2025 年全年实现 59.7 万销量，连续两年 销量翻倍，收入同比翻倍至 647 亿元。2025 年全年汽车收入/服务及其他销售收 入分别为 620.1/27.2 亿元，服务及其他收入大幅增长主要是由于海外整车销量大 幅增长，带动相关碳积分交易收入增加，其绝对值大约为 10 亿元左右。25Q4 综 合毛利率达到 15%，其中汽车毛利率大约 12%；2025 年全年毛利率提升 6.1pct 至 14.5%，主要是由于持续的成本管理、产品组合的优化、其他业务收入。由于 品牌力的建设和营销活动的增加，Q4 销售费用明显增加，Q4 公司归母净利润实 现 2.3 亿元，同比增长 177%。2025 年全年归母净利润实现 5.4 亿元，首次实现 年度的扭亏为盈，也使得零跑成为第二家实现年度盈利的中国新势力车企；调整 后归母净利润 10.8 亿元。 展望 2026 年，公司维持 100 万销量、50 亿利润的指引。2025 年公司销 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Leap Motor, with a target price of HKD 72, corresponding to a valuation of HKD 1,030 billion, based on 18x 2026e P/E and 0.8x 2026e P/S [4][6]. Core Insights - Leap Motor is expected to achieve profitability in 2025, with a projected sales volume of 597,000 units, doubling sales for two consecutive years, and revenue reaching HKD 64.7 billion, a year-on-year increase of 56.1% [1][2]. - The company plans to launch four new models in 2026, including the A10 and D19, to sustain strong sales growth [2]. - Leap Motor's overseas market expansion is progressing steadily, with 67,000 units exported in 2025, leading the Chinese new energy vehicle sector [3]. Financial Performance - In Q4 2025, Leap Motor achieved a net profit of HKD 230 million, a year-on-year increase of 177%, and a full-year net profit of HKD 540 million, marking its first annual profit [1]. - The gross margin for 2025 improved by 6.1 percentage points to 14.5%, driven by cost management and product mix optimization [1]. - The company anticipates a revenue of HKD 112.6 billion in 2026, with a net profit of HKD 5 billion, and aims for a profit target of HKD 5 billion for 2026 [2][4]. Sales and Market Strategy - Leap Motor's sales network covers 295 cities with 950 sales stores and 526 service centers, aiming to enhance channel quality through investor programs [2]. - The company is focusing on local production in Spain, with plans to start production of the B10 model in October 2026 [3]. - The sales volume forecast for 2026-2028 is 1 million, 1.42 million, and 1.61 million units, respectively, with corresponding revenues of HKD 1,126 billion, HKD 1,618 billion, and HKD 1,772 billion [4].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, anticipating a price increase of over 15% in the next 6-12 months [6]. Core Insights - The company achieved a revenue of 64.73 billion yuan in 2025, marking a year-on-year growth of 101.3%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 540 million yuan, indicating a turnaround from losses [2]. - The launch of the B series new cars significantly boosted sales and revenue, with Q4 2025 automotive business revenue reaching 202 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 53.7% [3]. - The company is expanding its global footprint, with a focus on localizing operations in key markets such as Europe and South America, having established around 900 sales service outlets in approximately 40 international markets by the end of 2025 [4]. - The company is in a strong new product cycle, with four major product series set to launch in 2026, which is expected to drive sales growth and help achieve an annual sales target of one million units [5]. Financial Summary - The company is projected to achieve net profits of 4.65 billion yuan, 6.75 billion yuan, and 7.22 billion yuan for the years 2026, 2027, and 2028, respectively [6]. - The report indicates a significant improvement in gross margin, with Q4 2025 gross margin at 15.0%, up 1.8 percentage points year-on-year [3]. - The company’s revenue growth rate is expected to stabilize at 53.52% in 2026, following the substantial growth of 101.25% in 2025 [11].