周二，波音(BA.US)跌逾2%，报227.13美元。消息面上，据报道，航空咨询公司Cirium的数据显示，截 至今年8月初，A320系列累计交付量已达12,155架，仅比波音少20架，预计最快下月将反超，成为史上 交付量最高的商用飞机。 展望未来，空客首席执行官GuillaumeFaury已着手规划下一代机型，他在巴黎航展期间曾透露空客正在 研发A320继任者，预计2030年代中期投入运营——这清晰表明，争夺未来天空主导权的竞赛已然打 响。 ...

Core Viewpoint - Bank of America upgraded Boeing's stock rating from "Neutral" to "Buy" and raised the target price from $185 to $260, reflecting strong confidence in Boeing's future performance and market outlook [1] Company Overview - Boeing is a leading aerospace company and one of the duopolists in the large commercial aircraft manufacturing sector, with business segments including commercial airplanes, defense, space and security, and global services [1] - Despite facing intense competition from Airbus in the narrow-body jet market, Boeing remains a key player in the recovery of the commercial aviation sector [1] Financial Projections - Bank of America forecasts Boeing's earnings per share (EPS) to be a loss of $5.81 in 2023 and $20.38 in 2024, but expects a turnaround in 2025 with an EPS of $0.35, growing to $3.90 in 2026 and $6.40 in 2027 [2] - Boeing is projected to achieve positive free cash flow (FCF) of $2.924 billion in 2026, improving to $5.525 billion in 2027 [2] Production and Operational Improvements - Boeing's 737 program has seen significant operational improvements, with plans to increase the monthly production rate to 38 aircraft by the end of 2025, potentially rising to 42 aircraft per month [2] - The Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) is closely monitoring this production ramp-up [2] Challenges and Strategic Moves - Boeing faces short-term challenges including FAA production limits, integration issues with Spirit AeroSystems, and execution of defense projects [3] - To alleviate balance sheet pressures, Boeing plans to sell its digital aviation solutions division for approximately $10.6 billion, with expectations of more such transactions to enhance cash flow [3] - Boeing is transitioning from "crisis repair" to "value release," with potential for $50 billion in new orders over the next five years if trade strategies continue favorably [3] Defense Business Expansion - Boeing's defense segment is expanding through the Next Generation Air Dominance (NGAD) fighter program, expected to generate over $80 billion in revenue over its lifecycle [4] - The company aims to achieve a monthly production rate of 44 aircraft by 2027 and 48 by 2028, representing a nearly 40% increase from current capacity [4] Long-term Confidence - The upgrade in Boeing's rating is based on long-term confidence in its role as a strategic asset in U.S. trade and as a core player in the recovery of commercial aviation [4] - Key indicators to watch include the monthly delivery rate of the 737 MAX, the timeline for FAA capacity limit removal, and the gross margins of defense projects [4]

Group 1: Rare Earths and Strategic Resources - China has reiterated its control measures on rare earth exports amidst a global tariff war initiated by the US, highlighting the strategic importance of rare earth materials in various industries [1] - Rare earths are considered dual-use resources, essential for both civilian and military applications, making their regulation critical for national security [1] - China possesses the most comprehensive refining industry for rare earths, supplying the majority of these materials globally, which Western countries have long relied upon [1] Group 2: Impact on US Military and Technology - The F-35 fighter jet requires over 400 kilograms of rare earth materials per unit, making China's export control measures significantly impactful on US military capabilities [3] - The US has accused China of misusing export controls, while simultaneously imposing bans on a range of technology exports to China, including semiconductor-related products [3] Group 3: US Export Bans on Aviation Technology - The US plans to prohibit the export of commercial aircraft engines to China, which could significantly affect the production of Chinese aircraft like the C909 and C919, both of which utilize US technology [5] - The C909 and C919 aircraft are designed for international markets and rely heavily on international cooperation and foreign components [5][7] Group 4: China's Response and Future Developments - China has initiated a dual-track development strategy for aircraft engines, with the CJ-1000 engine already showing competitive technical specifications compared to imported engines [7] - Despite US sanctions, China is expected to continue advancing in the aviation sector and increasing its domestic production capabilities, similar to its progress in the semiconductor industry [9]

未来三年，阿里资本开支将超过过去十年总和。 今晚的阿里 2025 第三财季业绩会上，阿里集团 CEO 吴泳铭表示，AI 是几十年一遇的机会。阿里 的 AI 战略第一目标是 AGI （通用人工智能）的实现，可能远远超过现在可见的任何一个应用场 景。 他说，从实现 AGI 的商业价值来看，标准定义是能够完成 80% 以上的人类能力。全球 GDP 的 50% 支出是劳动工资支出，包括脑力劳动和体力劳动。如果实现 AGI ，人工智能相关产业大概率 将会是全球最大的产业，有可能影响或者替代现在 50% 左右的 GDP 构成。 管理层判断，阿里是亚洲市场具备几个关键要素的重要 AI 玩家，有亚洲最大、全球第四的云服务 和先进的自研 AI 模型，在 to c 生态上有最多应用场景。未来三年，阿里在云和 AI 的基础设施投 入预计将超越过去十年的总和（约 3800 亿元），要猛攻 AI 基础大模型和原生应用，死守技术领 先地位，以及用 AI 彻底改造电商等老业务，挖出用户新价值。 受 AI 相关利好推动，年初至今阿里股价已上涨近 49%，今日财报发布后，阿里盘前涨超 10% 至 138.2 港元。 9.9 价格战下，瑞幸咖啡 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (Maintain) [1] Core Views - Boeing is a global aerospace duopoly, with operations spanning commercial airplanes (BCA), defense and space (BDS), and global services (BGS). Despite facing challenges in 2024, including a significant incident with Alaska Airlines and a prolonged IAM union strike, the company has demonstrated strong corrective capabilities [4][5] - The company reported a revenue of $66.52 billion in 2024, with a net loss of $11.82 billion. The BCA segment faced a revenue of $22.86 billion with an operating loss of $7.97 billion, primarily due to the 737-9 incident and the strike [4][5] - Boeing's order backlog remains robust, with a total backlog of $521 billion, involving 5,500 aircraft, indicating strong demand for new aircraft over the next 20 years [4][5] Summary by Sections Company Overview - Boeing operates in three major segments: BCA, BDS, and BGS, and is the largest commercial aircraft manufacturer globally [4] - The company has faced operational challenges but is implementing strategic reforms under new CEO Kelly Ortberg to enhance quality control and operational efficiency [4][5] Financial Performance - In 2024, Boeing's revenue was $66.52 billion, down 14% year-over-year, with a gross loss of $1.99 billion and a net loss of $11.82 billion. The company expects a revenue increase to $81.99 billion in 2025, with a projected return to profitability by 2026 [5][10] - The company’s cash and securities increased to $26.3 billion by the end of 2024, while total debt decreased to $53.9 billion [4][5] Market Demand and Orders - Global air travel demand has surpassed pre-pandemic levels, with IATA projecting industry net profits of $31.5 billion in 2024 and $36.6 billion in 2025. Boeing anticipates a demand for approximately 43,975 new aircraft over the next 20 years [4][5] - The company has a significant order backlog, with $521 billion in total orders as of the end of 2024 [4][5] Strategic Initiatives - Boeing is pursuing vertical integration by acquiring Spirit AeroSystems to strengthen its supply chain and quality control, with the deal expected to close in 2025 [4][5] - The company is addressing safety concerns related to the 737 program and has implemented enhanced inspection processes in collaboration with the FAA [4][5]