在 A 股上半年收官之际，由 第一财经和九方智投共同举办的 2025 首席策略荟 于 6 月 30 日在上 海成功举行 。 随着上证指数在 6 月份突破年内高点， 2025 年下半年正式开启。本次活动也以 "202 5 下半年市 场策略 " 为主题，吸引了众多投资者和行业专家的关注。 首席策略会伊始，第一财经电视总监、资讯中心总监陈卫亮，九方智投总经理、九方金融研究所所长 程伟为策略会致辞。 第一财经电视总监、资讯中心总监陈卫亮作策略会致辞 陈卫亮表示，作为半年度活动，本次首席策略荟携手九方智投举办首届线下沙龙，邀请顶尖学者、首 席分析师共通碰撞智慧火花，同时也希望以专业洞察助力市场行稳致远，为市场投资决策注入确定 性。 九方智投总经理、九方金融研究所所长程伟作策略荟致辞 程伟表示，九方智投定位 "新一代股票投资助手"，坚持"科技 + 投研"双轮驱动战略，本次携手第 一财经联合举办首席策略荟，致力于帮助广大投资者提升认知、知识、信息体系，提升综合分析能 力，进而洞悉市场趋势，决胜 2025 下半年投资机会。 当前，国际地缘冲突、关税扰动等不确定性因素依然存在，如何判断全球宏观经济走向和资本市场趋 势成为市场关 ...

Core Insights - The 2025 "618" shopping festival reflects a shift in the e-commerce industry, indicating a potential "Kondratieff wave" bottleneck, characterized by consumer interest decline and stagnation in user growth [2][6][11] Group 1: Kondratieff Wave Theory - The "Kondratieff wave" theory, proposed by economist Nikolai Kondratieff, describes long economic cycles of approximately 40 to 60 years, consisting of four stages: innovation-driven growth, peak bubble, deleveraging recession, and industrial restructuring recovery [3][4] - The theory can be applied to the e-commerce sector, revealing similar cyclical patterns in its development [4] Group 2: E-commerce Development Over Two Decades - The Chinese e-commerce industry has evolved over 20 years, transitioning from the C2C model in the PC era to B2C driven by mobile internet, and now to content and social e-commerce [5] - The industry is currently in a bottleneck or transformation phase from 2021 to 2025, marked by the disappearance of user growth and a shift towards rational consumption [5][6] Group 3: Signs of Bottleneck in 2025 "618" - User interest is waning, with daily active users (DAU) growth slowing to under 5%, significantly lower than previous double-digit growth rates [6][7] - Major platforms are facing a traffic dilemma, shifting focus from transaction scale to operational quality, indicating a slowdown in growth [7][8] - There is a severe lack of innovation, with promotional strategies becoming homogenized and reliant on traditional methods like subsidies and live-streaming [8][9] - Consumer attitudes are changing towards value, sustainability, and personalization, moving away from price-driven decisions [9][10] - Platforms are adopting cost-cutting measures instead of aggressive expansion, reflecting a more results-oriented operational approach [10] Group 4: Future Directions for E-commerce Recovery - Future recovery in the e-commerce sector may be driven by AI innovations that reconstruct consumption experiences and interactions [12] - Emotional connections between brands and consumers are becoming core assets, with younger generations willing to pay for values and cultural alignment [13] - Sustainable e-commerce practices and circular economy initiatives are emerging as new growth points, aligning with global trends [14] Conclusion - The 2025 "618" festival signifies a transition rather than an end, indicating the conclusion of one cycle and the beginning of another, necessitating innovation and new consumption cultures for future growth [15]