2026 CES 现场直击+AI 新王上市大涨！AI 板块联合电 话会 20260110 摘要 2026 年 CES 上，AI 眼镜（中国公司主导，如 XA Rocket）、机器人 （任务解决型、陪伴型，如语数云、生猪）、智能介质（智能戒指）和 智能驾驶（特斯拉 V14）备受关注，预示相关领域投资机会。 一季度是科技板块重要窗口期，重磅 AI 模型发布将提升模型能力，存储 需求依然旺盛。大模型商业化加速，广告、电商领域（如 Up Loving、Unity、汇量科技、腾讯、阿里）值得关注。 Mini Max 上市后市值翻倍至 1,000 亿人民币，质谱市值达 666 亿人民 币。市场对质谱存在误解，其收入主要来自互联网大厂；Mini Max 的 M2 模型在编程领域已达全球第二，仅次于 Anthropic，未来增长空间 大。 谷歌 2025 年 11 月发布的 GEO（Generative Experience Optimization）旨在优化生成式体验，将对整个行业产生深远影响，未 来 30 年将是 GEO 的时代，受益链主是大模型本身。 Q&A 2026 年 CES 展会的整体情况如何？有哪些重要的趋势和 ...

智能眼镜：产品加速迭代，镜片龙头有望提份额 20260109 智能眼镜市场目前的发展状况如何？未来预期如何？ 摘要 智能眼镜市场快速增长，不带显示 AI 眼镜预计 2025 年出货量达 700 万台，2030 年达 9,000 万台；带显示 AR 眼镜预计 2025 年增至接近 100 万台，2027 年达 300 万台。AI 眼镜当前数量较多，AR 眼镜技术 尚不成熟，但未来市场潜力巨大。 市场上主要智能眼镜品牌包括 Manta、雷朋、ROKID 和阿里夸克等， 各品牌在性能、重量、续航和性价比上不断创新。例如，Manta 与雷朋 联名 AI 眼镜售价 299 美元起，ROKID 双目显示眼镜售价 3,299 元人民 币起。 带显 AR 眼镜镜片采用一体化贴合方案成主流，如阿里夸克双目带显 AR 玻璃，提升视觉效果和设备耐用性。康耐特光学在该技术领域处于领先 地位，为 Manta 等品牌提供一体化贴合方案。 康耐特光学通过收购日本朝日光学并切入三菱 1.74 原材料供应链，在 高折射率镜片领域打破外资垄断，占据中国市场约 50%的份额，年增长 率超过 40%。 Q&A 智能眼镜行业的发展趋势如何？ 智能眼镜 ...

康耐特光学 20260108 康耐特光学作为全球镜片行业的隐形冠军，具备稳定的业绩贡献和显著的技术 壁垒。公司在 AI 眼镜领域拥有先发优势，有望成为全球 AR 眼镜核心供应商， 充分受益于全球 AI 眼镜市场的增长红利。2026 年，康耐特光学首次纳入国家 补贴，并且在 CES 展会上引起广泛关注。预计未来几年，AI 眼镜出货量将大幅 提升，公司有望占据 30%的市场份额，每副均价提升至 300-400 元，净利润 率达到 30-35%。基于这些因素，公司市值有望达到 500-600 亿元。 康耐特光学当前估值及未来增长空间如何？ 目前康耐特光学估值约为 460 亿元，从长期来看，有望实现两到三倍的增长空 间，市值上限可达 500-600 亿元。短期内，公司受益于 1 月 1 日的新国补政 策和 CES 展会等催化因素。今年（2026 年）公司业绩预计为 6.5 亿元左右， AI 眼镜作为 AI 大模型落地移动端最佳载体，市场空间广阔。Meta 等龙 头企业预计 AI 眼镜将替代 AR 眼镜及手机，市场规模达 6 亿台，对应 2 万亿人民币市场。 康耐特光学积极布局海外产能，日本工厂已投产，泰国基地也将落地 ...

CES 现场连线全球科技巨头 2026 战略 20260107 摘要 联想强调 AI 数据中心需求强劲增长，机器人数量显著增加，中国机器人 公司表现突出，多家企业展示人形机器人，波士顿动力学作为唯一海外 企业参展，电子产业链对机器人投入明显增加。 汽车主机厂数量减少，反映行业进入成熟阶段，智能驾驶普及度提高。 三星和索尼退出 LVCC 展示区，表明韩日消费电子影响力下降，业务重 心转向内容、游戏或存储。AR 眼镜市场有小规模迭代，但无重大突破。 存储技术被认为是 2026 年科技行业确定性最高的投资领域之一，随着 AI 发展，对 DRAM 需求增加，英伟达等公司进入存储领域，美光、海力 士、三星及 ASML 等受到关注。 英伟达提前发布 Ruby 系列产品，采用高度自动化封装方式，减少线缆 使用，改用 PCB，对 A 股硬件厂商及 PCB 线缆企业影响较大，对组装 厂商如鸿海工业富联等价值链提升带来积极影响。 英伟达发布 Bluefield 4 平台，解耦 GPU 内存中的 KV cache，缓解推 理阶段主机内存压力，巩固整体存储逻辑的重要性。HBM 需求旺盛，三 星有望成为英伟达主要供应商之一，美光继续与 ...

Core Insights - The article emphasizes the importance of "Spatial Intelligence" as the next frontier for AI, moving beyond traditional language models to understand and interact with the physical world [1][6][38] - The CES 2026 event showcases advancements in embodied AI, highlighting the industry's shift towards spatial understanding and the need for AI to comprehend three-dimensional space [1][4][10] Group 1: Spatial Intelligence and Its Importance - Spatial Intelligence is defined as the ability of AI to understand depth, distance, occlusion, and gravity, which is essential for true embodiment [6][8] - The current challenge in AI is the inability to replicate the spatial intuition found in biological entities, which limits the effectiveness of AI in real-world applications [5][6] - The competition in the AI industry is shifting from parameter size to the ability to achieve faster spatial intuition at lower costs, marking a significant change in focus [6][8] Group 2: Technological Paths in Spatial Intelligence - Two main technological paths are emerging: "World Generation," which focuses on creating realistic 3D environments for AI training, and "Spatial Decision," which aims to enable real-time understanding and decision-making in physical environments [14][18] - Companies like META and NVIDIA are leading efforts in these paths, with projects aimed at enhancing AI's ability to interact with the physical world [16][19][28] Group 3: Cost Reduction and Market Expansion - The article discusses a potential industry turning point where the cost of spatial perception technology could drop significantly, making it accessible for widespread use [23][26] - Innovations in visual-based solutions are breaking the high-cost barrier traditionally associated with 3D spatial perception, allowing for consumer-grade applications [26][32] - The shift from expensive hardware to affordable algorithms is expected to expand the market for embodied AI, making it a part of everyday life [34][38] Group 4: Investment Opportunities - Investors are increasingly focused on companies that can effectively implement spatial intelligence in real-world applications, viewing this as a critical factor for success in the next decade [34][38] - The potential for spatial intelligence to revolutionize various sectors, including consumer electronics and industrial applications, is highlighted as a significant opportunity for growth [38]

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The focus is on the domestic consumption sector, with policies aimed at boosting consumer spending through increased household income, including minimum wage hikes and corporate salary increases [1][4][5] - The service consumption sector is expected to benefit from reforms in pricing mechanisms, particularly in healthcare, transportation, and public utilities [1][6] - The retail sector, especially offline retail, is seen as a crucial driver for domestic demand, supported by policies for updating commercial facilities [1][12] Core Insights and Arguments - **Consumer Policy Effectiveness**: The effectiveness of consumer promotion policies is anticipated to exceed market expectations, with significant increases in minimum wage across provinces, averaging over 8% [4][5] - **Service Sector Reforms**: Reforms in service pricing, particularly in healthcare, are expected to enhance the income of service providers while controlling costs for consumers [6] - **Product Innovation**: In the goods consumption sector, companies that excel in innovation and new supply offerings are likely to thrive, moving away from traditional consumer upgrade logic [7] - **Tourism and Local Policies**: Local government competition is expected to stimulate tourism, benefiting cultural and agricultural sectors [1][7] Important but Overlooked Content - **Retail Performance**: The first quarter of 2026 is projected to be crucial for leading regional retail companies, with expectations of strong performance during the extended Spring Festival [12] - **Cross-Border E-commerce**: Currency fluctuations have a limited impact on leading cross-border e-commerce companies, with exchange rate losses being a minor portion of profits [13] - **Household Appliances and Smart Hardware**: The government has initiated a subsidy plan for key household appliance categories, with a total subsidy of approximately 250 billion for 2026, focusing on six core categories [19][20] - **Food and Beverage Sector**: The food and beverage sector is expected to hit a performance bottom in Q1 2026, with a gradual recovery anticipated in Q2 [22] Future Outlook - **Economic Rebalancing**: The macroeconomic narrative is shifting towards economic rebalancing, with a cautious optimism for 2026 as supply-demand dynamics are expected to improve [8][9] - **Investment Opportunities**: Key investment opportunities are identified in sectors benefiting from government support, particularly in smart home and wearable technology, with a focus on companies like Midea, Haier, and TCL [20][21] - **Pork Market Expectations**: The pork market is showing signs of recovery, with prices expected to stabilize and improve, leading to a more optimistic outlook for the industry [16] This summary encapsulates the essential insights and projections from the conference call records, highlighting the key themes and potential investment opportunities across various sectors.

重申机器人贝塔机会和超额投资方向 20251231 摘要 特斯拉人形机器人的进展是行业标杆，其发布和量产标志着供应链的确 定性，对苹果、谷歌、华为等公司具有重要参考意义，投资者应关注其 SOP 和小批量生产及大规模量产阶段。 成长型行业估值不应仅凭静态 PE，而应关注技术和供应链成熟后的未来 增长潜力。对特斯拉及其供应链企业，应关注技术进展和大规模量产能 力，而非短期出货数据。 获得超额收益的策略包括：关注电子类标的，因其他科技巨头可能跟进 人形机器人；重视 ASP 提升和份额扩张；投资具有创新能力和技术优势 的公司，如恒立液压。 北塔及其相关行业的投资机会基于产业格局的高度确定性。即使一些供 应商未直接进入核心客户，但其市场份额巨大，同样值得关注。 奥比中光在深度相机领域、宁波华翔在 PIG 产能扩张、英诺赛科在中低 压氮化镓领域具有显著优势，A 股方面可关注宏微科技等公司。 绿谐波是全球人形机器人减速器领导者，收入快速增长，与特斯拉等客 户紧密合作。魔术科技是特斯拉长期合作伙伴，订单获取概率高；岱美 专注于触觉传感器，与特斯拉有成熟供货关系。 科森科技已进入特斯拉供应链，提供结构件，并拓展苹果散热模组、 ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns a rating of "Buy" to the company with a target price of 103.01 CNY, compared to the current price of 77.43 CNY [5]. Core Insights - The company aims to create a "Chinese version of TPU" to seize opportunities in AI inference, leveraging its subsidiaries to penetrate the AI consumer electronics market. The consumer segment is expected to realize its potential soon, while enterprise orders are rapidly increasing, indicating a broad future growth space [2][10]. - The company is projected to achieve revenues of 12.51 billion CNY, 16.07 billion CNY, and 19.54 billion CNY from 2025 to 2027, respectively, with a focus on optimizing its revenue structure through both consumer and enterprise segments [10][17]. Financial Summary - Total revenue is expected to grow from 506 million CNY in 2023 to 1.95 billion CNY in 2027, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 21.6% [4][17]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company is forecasted to improve from -383 million CNY in 2023 to -208 million CNY in 2027, indicating a reduction in losses over the forecast period [4][17]. - The company’s gross margin is expected to increase from 20.94% in 2024 to 29.84% in 2027, driven by improvements in both consumer and enterprise segments [19]. Revenue and Profit Forecast - Consumer segment revenue is anticipated to grow at a rate of 20% to 21% from 2025 to 2027, reaching approximately 4.87 million CNY, 5.89 million CNY, and 7.07 million CNY, respectively [14][15]. - Enterprise segment revenue is expected to see significant growth, with projections of 99.49%, 50.23%, and 30.11% year-on-year increases from 2025 to 2027, resulting in revenues of 4.96 million CNY, 7.45 million CNY, and 9.69 million CNY [15][16]. - Industry segment revenue is forecasted to grow modestly at 2% annually, reaching 2.59 million CNY, 2.64 million CNY, and 2.69 million CNY from 2025 to 2027 [16]. Valuation Analysis - The report utilizes both PS and PB valuation methods, concluding a reasonable valuation of 369.62 billion CNY, corresponding to a target price of 103.01 CNY [21][22]. - The company is expected to maintain a PS ratio of 23 times by 2026, reflecting its growth potential in the AI inference chip market [21][22]. Market Position and Strategy - The company is recognized as a leading player in the AI sector, focusing on AI inference chips and aiming to capitalize on the rapid growth of the AI market, which is projected to expand significantly in the coming years [25][44]. - The strategic acquisition of Qiancheng Technology is expected to enhance the company's capabilities in integrating AI technology with consumer electronics, thereby accelerating its market penetration [14][45].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a rating of "Buy" for the electronic industry [1] Core Insights - The electronic industry is expected to experience significant growth driven by advancements in AI technology and the domestic supply chain's maturation, particularly in cloud and edge computing [11][15] - The report highlights the importance of 3D DRAM as a key hardware innovation for AI applications, with expectations for substantial demand growth in 2026 [22][27] - The shift towards high-density interconnects and advanced power supply architectures is crucial for supporting the increasing power density of AI data centers [50][56] Summary by Sections Cloud Computing Power - The domestic computing power supply chain is accelerating, with significant performance releases expected from local manufacturers like Zhongke Shuguang and Huawei [11] - The transition from Scale-Out to Scale-Up networking is enhancing bandwidth and reducing latency, which is critical for AI applications [11] Edge Computing Power - The integration of edge and cloud computing is becoming essential for AI applications, with edge devices benefiting from advancements in SoC technology [15][17] - Companies like Jingchen and Ruixinwei are positioned to capitalize on the growing demand for edge AI solutions [19] 3D DRAM - 3D DRAM is anticipated to become mainstream in 2026, driven by its high bandwidth and low cost, making it essential for various AI applications [22][27] - Companies such as Zhaoyi Innovation are expected to lead in the development of 3D DRAM technologies [28] AI Models - The optimization of AI models is crucial for enhancing performance and user experience, with a focus on local processing capabilities [29][30] - The collaboration between terminal manufacturers and model providers is expected to evolve, shaping the competitive landscape [30][33] AI Terminals - 2026 marks the beginning of a new era for AI terminals, with major companies like Meta, Apple, and Google launching innovative products [34][36] - The development of new terminal forms, such as smart glasses and desktop robots, is expected to drive market growth [34][35] Longxin Chain - Longxin's expansion plans are set to enhance the DRAM supply chain, with a focus on 3D architecture to improve performance and efficiency [38][39] - The company is expected to benefit from increased capital investment and technological advancements [39][41] Wafer Foundry - The domestic wafer foundry industry is entering a new expansion phase, particularly in advanced logic processes [42][43] - Key players like SMIC and Huahong are expected to lead this expansion, addressing the growing demand for advanced chips [44] PCB Industry - The PCB market is poised for growth, driven by the demand for high-performance materials and advanced designs [45][48] - Companies like Shenghong Technology are expected to benefit from the rising demand for AI-related PCB applications [49] Optical-Copper Interconnection - The demand for optical and copper interconnections is increasing, driven by the growth of AI computing clusters [50][52] - Companies such as Changguang Huaxin are well-positioned to capitalize on this trend [53] Server Power Supply - The shift to HVDC power supply architectures is becoming essential for AI data centers, addressing the challenges of increasing power density [55][56] - Companies like Oulu Tong are expected to lead in the development of advanced power supply solutions [56]

Group 1 - The report emphasizes that global liquidity is continuously improving, which is expected to enhance equity asset returns, particularly in the context of AI-related software and edge applications [1][7][11] - The report suggests that the growth space for small-cap and growth sectors is likely to expand due to synchronized global monetary policy easing [7][11] - The report highlights the significant advancements in AI models, particularly with the release of Gemini 3.0 and GPT-5.2, which are expected to drive substantial commercial opportunities in AI applications [21][28][39] Group 2 - The report identifies key companies to watch, including Blue Sky Technology and Spring Wind Power, which are expected to benefit from AI-related growth [8][65] - It also mentions companies like Jieshun Technology and Kaige Precision Machinery, which are positioned to capitalize on AI-driven product releases and innovations [7][65] - The report notes that the valuation of small-cap stocks remains low, with PE ratios for the National Index 2000 and the Growth Enterprise Market Index at 57.1x and 41.21x respectively, indicating potential for further valuation recovery [65]