AI 时代创新先锋，行业配置更进一竿 - 电子行业 2025Q3 基金持仓分析 20251121 摘要 2025 年第三季度电子板块涨幅显著，位居全行业第二，主要受益于算 力相关领域及 AI 消费电子新品，但后者放量预计在明年下半年或后年。 电子行业细分领域中，零部件及元器件配置增长最多，半导体配置比例 最高达 12.91%，重仓标的包括寒武纪、兆易创新等，受益于 AI、大算 力及存储扩产。 立讯精密、工业富联等公司被看好，工业富联新增大量主动型基金持仓， 预示未来成长潜力，并有望在明年业绩中体现。 全球半导体月度销售额创新高，预计未来一两年内可能突破万亿美元， AI 和存储需求共振，存储市场呈现缺货涨价状态，2026 年预计持续高 增速。 尽管存储涨价带来压力，但终端环节软硬件创新将带动电子产品及元器 件板块增长，富联、沪电等公司被大幅增配，仍具备配置价值。 显示器件市场格局稳定，利润趋于稳定，核心龙头公司分红潜力大，但 短期内受 AI 热潮影响，基金有所减配，长期前景依然看好。 外资通过陆股通增配蓝思科技、水晶光电等行业龙头，减配豪威集团等， ETF 重仓股持仓金额增加但集中度下降，AI 仍是确定性投入增 ...

继续看好 AI-PCB 及核心算力硬件、苹果产业链及自主可控受益产业链。我们认为，AI 需求持续强劲，英伟达 AI 服务器四季度出货量提速，ASIC 迎来爆发式增长，产业链积极拉货，整体来看，继续看好 AI-PCB 及核心算力 硬件、苹果链及自主可控受益产业链。 细分行业景气指标：消费电子（稳健向上）、PCB（加速向上）、半导体芯片（稳健向上）、半导体代工/设备/材料 /零部件（稳健向上）、显示（底部企稳）、被动元件（稳健向上）、封测（稳健向上）。 电子周观点： 英伟达指引超预期，AI 需求持续旺盛。11 月 20 日，英伟达披露 FY26Q3（25.8~25.10）业绩，FY26Q3 公司营 收 570 亿美元，同比+62%，环比+22%，其中数据中心收入 512 亿美元，同比+66%，环比+25%。FY26Q3 公 司 GAAP 毛利率为 73.4%，净利润为 319 亿美元，同比+65%；Non-GAAP 毛利率为 73.6%，净利润为 318 亿 美元，同比+59%，环比+23%。公司预计 FY26Q4 收入为 650 亿美元（±2%），GAAP 与 Non GAAP 毛利率分 别为 74.8±0.5 ...

Group 1 - The report highlights the ongoing transformation in the artificial intelligence (AI) industry, with significant advancements in AI models and increasing capital expenditures from cloud service providers, driving demand for AI computing hardware infrastructure [8][20][39] - The semiconductor industry is expected to continue its upward trend, with AI driving a potential super cycle in the memory sector, as domestic manufacturers enhance their competitive advantages in technology and supply chains [11][18][19] - The electronic industry has significantly outperformed the CSI 300 index, with a year-to-date increase of 38.35% compared to the CSI 300's 16.85% [18][19] Group 2 - Major cloud companies are increasing their capital expenditures, with North American cloud providers collectively spending $96.4 billion in Q3 2025, a 67% year-on-year increase, to support AI infrastructure [39][40] - The report emphasizes the rapid growth of AI server demand, with the global AI server market projected to reach $158.7 billion in 2025, reflecting a compound annual growth rate of 15.5% from 2024 to 2028 [51][53] - The report identifies key investment opportunities in sectors such as AI computing chips, AI PCBs, and memory modules, recommending specific companies for investment based on their market positions and growth potential [11][12][52]

需求回暖叠加订单增长，消费电子逻辑与机会怎么看 20251119 摘要 政策利好与消费刺激：2024 年政府工作报告强调提升消费，推出包括 3,000 亿特别国债和以旧换新等补贴政策，覆盖手机、平板等数码产品， 并对个人消费贷款提供贴息，预计带动销量增长 10%-15%。 消费电子行业高景气度：申万电子二级行业单季度营收增速超 20%，归 母净利润增速超 30%，显示行业在收入和利润方面均有显著提升，但当 前消费电子板块动态市盈率约为 55 倍，处于过去五年 95.7%的高位。 AI 催化作用显著：AI 服务器需求增加带动产业链公司业绩增长，例如某 代工龙头企业云计算相关业务收入同比增长超 150%，三季度单季同比 增长 2.1 倍，GPU AI 服务器同比增速更是超过 300%。 国产品牌竞争力增强：国产智能手机品牌逐渐转向高端市场，依赖技术 创新和研发投入，如华为 Mate 70 搭载 100%国产麒麟 9,020 芯片， 并在卫星通信和折叠屏技术上取得领先。 AIoT 领域进展显著：国内领先手机厂商 IoT 连接设备接近 10 亿台，覆 盖 200 多品类，拥有超 1 亿用户，表明中国厂商在智能家居生态 ...

证券研究报告 | 2025年11月13日 2026 年 A 股策略展望 "小登"时代，牛途仍在 核心结论：①始于 24 年"924"行情的牛市还未结束，当前进入第二阶段， 驱动力从情绪面转向基本面。②全年维度，科技是主线，演绎路径从算力转 向应用，关注 AI 眼镜、机器人、智驾、AI 编程、AI+生命科学等方向。③牛 市中期有风格轮动，阶段性关注前期滞涨的地产、券商、白酒消费。老红利 有新逻辑，维持底仓配置敞口。 牛途仍在，驱动力转向基本面。完整的牛市三阶段包括孕育期、爆发期和疯 狂期，本轮牛市与 519 行情更相似，目前处于爆发期。市场结构性特征明显， "小登资产"碾压"老登"资产。2026 年牛市驱动力从情绪面转向基本面， 上市企业 ROE 稳步回升，合同负债同比修复，盈利预期持续上修。微观流动 性仍有支撑：1）国内方面，"花存款"趋势延续，中长期定存到期进一步 加速存款搬家进程；2）海外方面，美国中期选举仍存变数，选区重划强博 弈预示后续政治波动加大，美联储预防式降息下半场驱动全球资金流向新兴 市场风险资产。 科技是主线，拥抱"小登"时代。历史上牛市都有主线，从"煤飞色舞"、 "移动互联"到"能源革命" ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the electronics industry, indicating a "Buy" rating for the sector in Q3 2025 [4]. Core Insights - The electronics industry shows sustained recovery, with Q3 2025 revenue growth of 19% year-on-year, ranking third among all sectors [5][9]. - Net profit for the electronics sector increased by 50% year-on-year in Q3 2025, placing it eighth among all sectors [5][9]. - Key segments such as semiconductor equipment, storage, and AI-related demand are driving growth, with significant price increases expected to continue in the storage sector [4][11]. Summary by Sections 1. Industry Overview - The electronics industry is experiencing a recovery phase, with a continuous positive growth trend for nine consecutive quarters in revenue and seven quarters in net profit [9]. - The Shenyin Wanguo Electronics Index has seen a rise in price-to-earnings ratio, reaching a peak of 69 times in October 2025 [10]. 2. Semiconductor Equipment - Major companies like North Huachuang and Jiangfeng Electronics reported revenue growth of 39% and 20% respectively in Q3 2025, with net profits increasing by 14% and 18% [21]. - The semiconductor equipment sector is benefiting from structural advantages, with a significant increase in investment despite a general decline in the semiconductor industry [21]. 3. Wafer Foundry and Testing - The wafer foundry segment is seeing high capacity utilization, with Huahong's revenue growing by 21% year-on-year in Q3 2025 [22]. - Testing companies such as Tongfu Microelectronics and Weicai Technology exceeded expectations with revenue growth of 44% and 98% respectively [22]. 4. Storage - Storage companies like Jiangbolong reported a 55% increase in revenue, with net profits significantly exceeding expectations [25]. - The report anticipates continued price increases in storage products, driven by strong demand from AI servers [25]. 5. Power Devices - Companies in the power device sector are experiencing a mild recovery, with significant demand from the automotive sector [27]. 6. Analog Chips - The competitive landscape for analog chips is improving, with companies like Shengbang and SIRUI reporting revenue growth of 13% and 70% respectively [29]. 7. Consumer Electronics - The consumer electronics sector is poised for a new hardware cycle, with companies like Lingyi Zhi Zao reporting a 13% increase in revenue [31]. 8. Computing Power Related - Companies in the computing power sector, such as Industrial Fulian, reported a 43% increase in revenue, driven by strong demand for AI servers [32].

极米科技 20251109 摘要 极米科技受益于德州仪器芯片价格下降，高端投影仪市场份额回升， 2025 年得到验证。同时，公司通过业务结构调整，如车载业务突破， 显著提升了业绩。 极米通过股票回购政策和获得市场认可，显示出对自身股价的信心。与 当贝签订战略合作协议，授权制造光机和整机设备，带来重要收入增量， 加速内销供给侧出清。 极米科技积极拓展海外市场，准备港股上市，深耕日本、欧洲和北美市 场，拥有超过 6,500 个线下网点。越南工厂投产有效降低关税成本，预 计 2026 年海外收入增速有望达到 20%-30%。 极米科技进入商用投影仪赛道，推出 T10 型号产品，首月收入超 5,000 万元。布局 AI 眼镜领域，预计年底前推出，有望成为明年增长点。车载 业务预计四季度起业绩改善。 预计极米科技 2025 年净利润 2.5 亿元，2026 年翻倍至 5 亿元，2027 年达 7 亿元。当前市值约 80 亿，扣除现金后利润估值仅 10 倍 PE，具 备较大投资价值，预期未来业绩增长将使股价至少上涨 50%至翻倍。 Q&A 极米科技在过去一年中的表现如何？有哪些关键因素推动了其发展？ 极米科技在过去一年中 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" (maintained) [2] Core Views - The company has shown a recovery in shipments, with AI leading a multi-dimensional business layout. It is focusing on emerging markets and the value of AI edge traffic [7] - The company reported a revenue of 49.543 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 3.33%, and a net profit of 2.148 billion yuan, down 44.97% year-on-year [7] - The company aims to maintain a healthy gross margin level despite competitive market pressures and supply chain costs [7] - The company is expanding its presence in emerging markets, particularly in Africa, South Asia, Southeast Asia, the Middle East, and Latin America, while enhancing its AI capabilities [7] - The forecasted net profit for 2025-2027 is 3.004 billion, 4.238 billion, and 5.341 billion yuan respectively, with corresponding EPS of 2.63, 3.72, and 4.68 yuan [7] Financial Performance - For 2023, the company is expected to achieve a revenue of 62.295 billion yuan, with a growth rate of 33.7%. The net profit is projected at 5.537 billion yuan, reflecting a growth rate of 122.9% [6][8] - The company’s revenue for 2024 is forecasted at 68.715 billion yuan, with a growth rate of 10.3%, and a net profit of 5.549 billion yuan, showing a minimal growth of 0.2% [6][8] - The projected revenue for 2025 is 69.147 billion yuan, with a slight growth of 0.6%, and a significant drop in net profit to 3.004 billion yuan, indicating a decline of 45.9% [6][8] - The company’s gross margin is expected to decline to 19.0% in 2025 from 23.5% in 2023, reflecting increased competition and cost pressures [8] Market Position - The company ranked fourth globally in smartphone shipments in Q3 2025, with approximately 29.2 million units shipped, a year-on-year increase of 13.6% [7] - The company is leveraging AI technologies in its products, enhancing user experience through features like image enhancement and voice assistance [7]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market - A" and the rating is maintained [6] Core Insights - The report highlights that overseas AI implementation is accelerating, with a global resonance in the software sector [1] - IDC's leading orders have reached a historical high, with plans to double capacity by 2029 to meet the demand of over 900MW retail and xScale customers [1] - North American cloud providers are showing positive Capex guidance, with significant growth in cloud business [2][3][4] - ServiceNow's performance exceeded expectations, with AI contracts projected to reach $1 billion by 2026 [4] Summary by Sections Industry Insights - In Q3 2025, Equinix reported revenue of $2.32 billion, a year-on-year increase of 5%, with total bookings reaching a historical high of $394 million [1] - Google reported Q3 2025 revenue of $31.2 billion, a 9% year-on-year increase, with cloud revenue growing by 34% [2] - Microsoft achieved Q1 FY26 revenue of $77.7 billion, an 18% year-on-year increase, with cloud revenue exceeding $49 billion [2] - Amazon's Q3 2025 revenue was $180.2 billion, a 12% increase, with AWS revenue growing by 20.2% [3] - Meta's Q3 2025 revenue reached $51.2 billion, a 26% increase, driven by advertising revenue growth [3] Performance Metrics - ServiceNow's Q3 2025 subscription revenue was $2.599 billion, a 21.5% year-on-year increase, with cRPO at $11.35 billion [4] - The report suggests focusing on AI-related stocks in the US market, such as Salesforce, Vertiv, and Coreweave [4][16] Market Review - The report notes that the computer sector outperformed the Shanghai Composite Index by 2.55% this week [17] - The computer sector index increased by 2.66% year-to-date, significantly outperforming the overall market [18]

Group 1 - The overall industry sentiment shows an upward trend in sectors such as power equipment, machinery, electronics, food and beverage, light manufacturing, real estate, and retail, while sectors like oil and petrochemicals, building materials, pharmaceuticals, textiles, automobiles, public utilities, and environmental protection are on a downward trend [2][23] - The report predicts strong performance in specific sub-industries over the next four weeks, highlighting automotive services, commercial vehicles, automotive parts, rail transit equipment, lighting equipment, household appliance components, chemical pharmaceuticals, non-metallic materials, plastics, consumer electronics, and electronic chemicals [2][23] - The investment themes are categorized into three directions: 1) breakthroughs in technology AI, 2) economic recovery and market liquidity leading to a "stronger gets stronger" market style, and 3) the continued rise of undervalued assets [2][23] Group 2 - In September, exports exceeded expectations with a year-on-year growth of 8.3%, driven by strong performance in integrated circuits and shipbuilding, marking the highest growth in six months [3][27] - Imports also saw a significant increase, with a year-on-year growth of 7.4%, and a month-on-month increase of 8.5%, the highest September month-on-month growth since 2015 [3][29] - The trade surplus for September was $90.45 billion, lower than market expectations but still above last year's levels, indicating robust external trade performance [3][29] Group 3 - The chemical raw materials and chemical products manufacturing industry reported a total profit of 246.08 billion yuan from January to August, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 5.5% [11] - The prices of hydrogen fluoride and hydrogen peroxide have been rising, with the hydrogen peroxide market showing strong upward momentum due to tight supply and increased demand from downstream industries [11][17] - The report indicates that the chemical industry is facing challenges, including price fluctuations and production safety risks, which could impact profitability [11][17] Group 4 - The company Hualu Hensheng reported a revenue of 15.764 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 7.1%, with a net profit of 1.569 billion yuan, down 29.5% [10] - The company experienced a recovery in the second quarter, with revenue of 7.992 billion yuan and a net profit of 862 million yuan, reflecting a quarter-on-quarter increase of 2.8% and 21.9% respectively [10] - The production of new projects, such as the BDO-NMP facility in Jingzhou and the diacid project in Dezhou, is expected to contribute significantly to revenue and profit in the second half of the year [10]