公司研究 证 券 研 究 报 告 歌尔股份（002241）2025 年半年报点评 推荐（维持） 盈利能力改善逻辑持续兑现，业务多点开花 业绩有望迎来快速增长 事项： 2025 年 8 月 21 日，歌尔股份发布 2025 年半年度报告：公司 2025H1 实现营业 收入 375.49 亿元（YoY-7.01%），实现归母净利润 14.17 亿元（YoY+15.65%）， 实现扣非归母净利润 10.33 亿元（YoY-12.72%）。单季度来看，公司 2025Q2 实 现营业收入 212.45 亿元（YoY+0.83%，QoQ+30.3%），实现归母净利润 9.48 亿 元（YoY+12.12%，QoQ+102.2%），实现扣非后归母净利润 7.41 亿元（YoY- 18.43%，QoQ+153.61%）。 评论： [ReportFinancialIndex] 主要财务指标 | | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入(百万) | 100,954 | 104,317 | 110,900 | 121,000 ...

证券研究报告·海外公司点评·资讯科技器材(HS) 小米集团-W（01810.HK） 2025H1 业绩点评：汽车毛利率再创新高，手 机高端化持续推进 买入（维持） | [Table_EPS] 盈利预测与估值 | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入（百万元） | 270,970 | 365,906 | 491,829 | 628,447 | 726,720 | | 同比(%) | (3.24) | 35.04 | 34.41 | 27.78 | 15.64 | | 归母净利润（百万元） | 17,475 | 23,658 | 39,603 | 53,356 | 65,931 | | 同比(%) | 606.34 | 35.38 | 67.40 | 34.73 | 23.57 | | EPS-最新摊薄（元/股） | 0.67 | 0.91 | 1.52 | 2.05 | 2.53 | | P/E（现价&最新摊薄） | 72.78 | 53.76 | 32.11 | 23.84 | ...

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry and Company Involved - The conference call focuses on the **3C device industry**, specifically highlighting **Apple Inc.** and its supply chain partners. Core Insights and Arguments - **Capital Expenditure Increase**: Apple plans to increase capital expenditure in the second half of 2025 to 2026 after a decline from 2022 to 2024. In the first half of 2025, capital expenditure rose by 57% to **$6.53 billion** and is expected to continue increasing, benefiting core component suppliers and equipment manufacturers [1][6]. - **New Product Launches**: Apple is set to launch a **foldable smartphone** in 2026 with an expected production capacity of **10 to 20 million units**, necessitating significant new equipment for assembly lines, leading to approximately **¥4 billion** in capital expenditure [1][2]. - **AI Glasses Introduction**: The company plans to release **AI glasses** by the end of 2026, leveraging its large iPhone user base for market penetration. This product may include camera installations, benefiting related device suppliers [1][2]. - **New Product Release Strategy**: Starting in 2026, Apple will adopt a biannual product release strategy, with the **iPhone 17e** expected in Q1 2026 to alleviate supply pressure in the fall and penetrate the lower-end market [1][2][3]. - **Investment in AI**: Apple has been actively acquiring companies like **Darwin AI** and **Data Data Car Lab** to enhance its AI capabilities, with plans to acquire **Perplexity** to improve front-end interaction. Despite the launch of **Apple Intelligence**, it currently only supports about **10%** of existing iPhone hardware, indicating a need for significant hardware upgrades among users [1][4][5]. - **Historical Capital Expenditure Trends**: Historically, Apple’s capital expenditure peaks during innovation cycles, such as a **25%** increase in 2021 during the 5G upgrade year. After a decline from 2022 to 2024, the recent increase signals a recovery [6]. - **U.S. Investment Commitment**: Apple has committed to investing **$600 billion** in the U.S. for tariff exemptions, focusing on core components while assembly remains likely in China, Southeast Asia, or India, reducing tariff risks and potentially aiding valuation recovery [7][8]. Other Important but Possibly Overlooked Content - **Future Hardware Sales Growth**: With **65% to 70%** of iPhones in use being over three years old, there is a substantial opportunity for hardware sales growth as users upgrade to newer models compatible with advanced AI features [4][5]. - **Beneficiary Companies**: Key suppliers expected to benefit from Apple's innovation cycle include: - **Bojun Precision**: Anticipated to see orders increase from **¥4 billion** to over **¥5 billion** due to foldable screen orders [9][10]. - **Opto**: Will gain from new orders with each product change due to its defect detection solutions [9][10]. - **Quick Smart**: Expected to benefit from increased demand for wearable devices like AI glasses [9][10]. - **Saiteng Co.**: Will leverage its optical detection business to penetrate the domestic supply chain [9][10]. - **Kaige Precision**: Focused on SMT processes, with a growing market share in dispensing and LED packaging equipment [9][10].

Core Viewpoint - ByteDance is exploring the integration of AI capabilities, super apps, and hardware terminals through its upcoming AI phone, "Doubao," which is set to be produced by ZTE and primarily tested internally before any external sales [3][4][6]. Group 1: AI Phone Development - ByteDance is developing an AI phone named "Doubao," with ZTE as the ODM manufacturer, expected to launch by the end of this year or early next year [4]. - The Ocean team, responsible for AI hardware at ByteDance, is exploring various AI devices, including the recently launched Ola Friend smart headphones and upcoming AI glasses [4][6]. - The decision to self-develop the Doubao phone came after difficulties in partnering with existing phone manufacturers, who preferred to maintain control over AI model integration [6][7]. Group 2: Strategic Goals and Historical Context - ByteDance's CEO outlined three major AI goals for 2025: exploring intelligent limits, new UI interaction forms, and enhancing scale effects, with hardware like phones being a key focus [7]. - Previous hardware attempts by ByteDance, such as the Dali smart lamp and the acquisition of VR brand PICO, faced challenges, leading to significant resource allocation shifts [7][8]. - The integration of AI capabilities into hardware is seen as crucial for the deployment of large models, particularly in the smartphone sector [8]. Group 3: Competitive Landscape - ByteDance's move into the smartphone market aims to achieve a "trinity" of AI capabilities, super apps, and hardware, similar to Google's ecosystem with its Gemini models and Pixel phones [8]. - The upcoming Google Pixel 10 series is expected to feature several AI enhancements, highlighting the competitive nature of AI integration in smartphones [8].

Summary of Conference Call Records Industry and Company Overview - The discussion primarily revolves around the convertible bond market and its strategies, particularly focusing on high convexity convertible bonds in the context of the Chinese stock market and emerging sectors like AI glasses and the semiconductor industry. Key Points and Arguments 1. **High Convexity Convertible Bonds**: These bonds exhibit higher gains when long-term interest rates decline and lower losses when rates rise, making them suitable for both offensive and defensive investment strategies [1][3][5]. 2. **Market Performance**: As of August 15, 2025, the high convexity strategy has yielded approximately 1% returns, slightly outperforming the CSI 500 index, indicating its effectiveness even in a high valuation environment [1][5]. 3. **Investor Sentiment**: There is a cautious sentiment among fixed-income investors, particularly in first and second-tier bond funds and convertible bond funds, due to concerns about potential market pullbacks [2]. 4. **Stock Market Concentration**: The concentration of stocks in the Chinese market is about 17%, which is lower than that of developed countries, suggesting a more stable market environment with funds dispersed among small and medium-sized stocks [8]. 5. **ETF Inflows**: The convertible bond market has seen strong performance with record inflows into ETFs, driven by asset scarcity and high valuations [9]. 6. **AI Glasses Sector**: Key companies in the AI glasses sector include Jiahua (ODM), Huanshu (components/modules), Lingyi and Weir, and Yirui (display modules), with varying degrees of revenue elasticity [10]. 7. **Semiconductor Industry**: Emerging companies in the semiconductor chain include Weidao and Maolai, which are positioned in critical areas of lithography and chip production [11]. 8. **Active Directions**: Recent active sectors include liquid cooling technology and robotics, with companies like Yinlun, Jiali, and Yonggui showing promise [12]. Additional Important Content 1. **Calculation Methods for Convexity**: Three primary methods for calculating the convexity of convertible bonds are discussed: regression analysis, BS formula optimization, and parity premium rate method, each with its own advantages and challenges [4][6]. 2. **Market Outlook**: The Shanghai Composite Index has reached a 10-year high, and while the outlook remains cautiously optimistic, adjustments to high convexity strategies will be made to adapt to potential market changes [7].

Core Insights - The article discusses the shift in the AI industry from a focus on technical capabilities to a more comprehensive ecosystem approach, emphasizing the importance of collaboration and support for startups [2][20]. Group 1: AI Startup Landscape - AI startups are evolving from being mere efficiency tools to becoming central to product experiences, reshaping the relationship between humans and the digital/physical worlds [7][15]. - Companies like Xinying Suixing and Kotoko are exploring new forms of digital companionship and interaction, highlighting the need for advanced AI capabilities [9][10]. - The demand for AI in wearable technology, such as AI glasses, is growing, with companies like Li Weike Technology leading the way in creating user-friendly products [11][13]. Group 2: Baidu's Support for AI Startups - Baidu's AI Day introduced the "AI Venture Acceleration Program," which aims to provide substantial support to selected AI startups through computing power subsidies, financing channels, and policy support [6][21]. - The program has already assisted 20 companies in securing over 100 million yuan in funding within the past year, indicating a strong commitment to fostering innovation [6][21]. - Baidu's cloud services offer a comprehensive infrastructure that includes self-developed chips and AI models, enabling startups to focus on their core business logic [18][19]. Group 3: Ecosystem Development - The article emphasizes that the future of AI competition will hinge on ecosystem building rather than just technical prowess, with Baidu positioning itself as a key player in this transition [20][22]. - Baidu's support framework includes flexible computing resources, machine learning operations (MLOps), and access to a network of investors and government resources, which collectively lower operational costs and enhance innovation [21][22]. - The three-phase growth path outlined for startups—product validation, scene validation, and ecosystem expansion—demonstrates Baidu's strategic approach to nurturing AI entrepreneurship [21][22].

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Company and Industry Overview - The conference call discusses **Kaiying Network**, a company in the gaming and AI industry, focusing on its recent developments and market position in China [2][12]. Core Insights and Arguments - **Exclusive Licensing**: Kaiying Network has secured exclusive rights for the **Legend and Chuan Shi IP** in mainland China, becoming the only legal distributor of box-type products, which is expected to enhance its market share [2][3]. - **Revenue Growth**: The **Legend Box** business achieved a revenue of **9.4 billion RMB** in 2024, marking a **41.6% year-on-year increase** with a gross margin close to **90%** [3]. - **Strategic Partnerships**: Agreements worth **450 million RMB** have been signed with leading publishers like **Sanjiu Interactive Entertainment**, which will establish brand zones within the Legend Box, anticipated to significantly boost revenue [3]. - **AI Application Development**: The AI companion application **Eve** has shown outstanding performance in its initial tests, leading the market in terms of personification and memory capabilities, and is exploring gamified applications in real-life scenarios [2][5]. - **Growth in Female Gaming Market**: The female-oriented gaming market is rapidly expanding, with the game **Love and Deep Space** projected to generate over **5 billion RMB** in revenue in 2024, indicating a growing demand for romance and companionship games [6][7]. Additional Important Insights - **AI Platform Commercialization**: Leading AI platforms like **Talky** and **Xingye** have reached **30 million monthly active users**, with projected revenues of **10 million USD** in 2024, showcasing high commercialization potential [8]. - **Comprehensive AI Strategy**: Kaiying's AI strategy encompasses both software (ToB SaaS, ToC AI companions) and hardware (AR/VR products), with plans to release AI glasses this year, positioning itself uniquely in the domestic A-share gaming sector [9]. - **Upcoming Product Launches**: Kaiying has launched several products in 2025, including **Dragon Valley World** and **Biochemical Baby Yuan Code**, with more significant titles like **Three Kingdoms: The Return of Hearts** expected by early 2026 [4][10]. - **Enhanced Distribution Capabilities**: The company has improved its distribution capabilities, which are expected to play a crucial role in capturing the nostalgic MMO market and the Legend market [11]. - **Future Expectations**: There is an expectation for Kaiying to continue its comprehensive AI industry chain development and to monitor the release of new models and game products closely [13].

Summary of the Conference Call for 康耐特光学 Company and Industry Overview - 康耐特光学 is a leading global eyewear manufacturer, ranked second in global shipments in 2024, following Essilor, and approximately fifth in revenue in the global second-tier market [3][4] - The company has established a competitive advantage in the AI glasses sector through its three-in-one technology solution, international customer resources, and customization capabilities, benefiting from strategic support from GoerTek [2][3] Key Insights and Arguments - The AI glasses market is expected to grow significantly, with Meta's Ribbon sales exceeding expectations, projected to triple in volume by 2025 compared to 2024 [2][5] - AI glasses require higher precision in lens technology, with demands for improvements in accuracy to the micron level, performance optimization, and manufacturing process enhancements [6] - 康耐特光学's standard lenses are priced lower, while customized lenses are significantly higher, with AI engine pricing expected to be notably above standard products, enhancing the company's profitability [2][7] - The company has established an XR R&D service center to strengthen its competitive edge in AI glasses [2][10] Market Development and Performance - 康耐特光学's production capacity exceeds 100 million units, with sales in 2024 reaching over 90 million units, maintaining its position as the second-largest global supplier [9] - The company has a strong customization capability, able to deliver highly customized lenses within two to three days [9] - The traditional business is expected to see steady growth, with net profits projected to be 540 million, 660 million, and 820 million yuan from 2025 to 2027, reflecting growth rates of 26%, 23%, and 24% respectively [13] Strategic Initiatives - 康耐特光学 has purchased land in Thailand to support XR product production, catering to the U.S. market demand, and has received a strategic investment from GoerTek, holding approximately 20% [8] - The company has formed deep collaborations with several leading international manufacturers, enhancing its market reach [7][8] R&D and Technological Advancements - The company established an XR R&D team in 2024, consisting of about 70 members, primarily from traditional business sectors, to enhance its R&D capabilities [10] - Improvements in equipment have allowed for customization precision in AI glasses lenses to increase from millimeter to micron levels, addressing various vision issues effectively [11] Future Outlook - Investors are advised to monitor 康耐特光学's developments closely, particularly regarding breakthroughs in domestic and international markets and upcoming product launches [14]

Key Insights - The report highlights a positive trend in the Chinese economy, with GDP growth of 5.3% in the first half of 2025, driven by stable growth in the primary and tertiary industries, while the secondary industry showed a slowdown [13] - The software and media sectors are leading the market, with significant interest in semiconductor and internet service industries, indicating a favorable investment environment [8][10] - The brokerage sector showed a strong performance in June 2025, with the index rising by 8.85%, outperforming the broader market [16] - The automotive industry continues to grow, with June production and sales of vehicles reaching 279.41 million and 290.45 million units respectively, indicating a robust market demand [17][20] - The food and beverage sector experienced a decline, with a notable drop in prices for various products, while health products showed resilience [28][29] - The zero-sum game in the snack market is evolving, with significant growth expected in the next three years, driven by changing consumer preferences and innovative distribution channels [32][34] Market Performance - The A-share market has shown signs of stabilization, with the Shanghai Composite Index and the ChiNext Index trading at average P/E ratios of 14.83 and 40.93 respectively, suggesting a suitable environment for long-term investments [8][10] - The brokerage sector's performance is expected to remain strong, with a forecast of stable growth in self-operated businesses and brokerage services [19] - The automotive sector's sales growth is supported by favorable policies and increasing consumer demand, particularly in the new energy vehicle segment [20][36] Industry Trends - The software industry is experiencing a growth rate of 11.2% in revenue, with a focus on AI and domestic chip production, indicating a shift towards technological self-sufficiency [26][27] - The health and wellness segment within the food and beverage industry is gaining traction, with a growing consumer base for health products [28][29] - The snack market is projected to grow significantly, with a focus on innovative retail formats and a shift towards healthier options [32][34]

Core Insights - The report highlights a moderate recovery in the Chinese economy, driven by consumption and investment, with the GDP for the first half of 2025 reaching 660,536 billion, growing by 5.3% year-on-year [12][13] - The A-share market is experiencing a steady upward trend, with various sectors such as securities, healthcare, and resources leading the gains, while the average P/E ratios for the Shanghai Composite and ChiNext are at 14.75 and 40.41 respectively, indicating a suitable environment for medium to long-term investments [5][9][15] - The automotive industry shows continued growth, with June 2025 production and sales reaching 279.41 million and 290.45 million vehicles respectively, marking a year-on-year increase of 11.43% and 13.83% [17][18] Domestic Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3,605.73 with a daily increase of 0.65%, while the Shenzhen Component Index rose by 1.21% to 11,193.06 [3] - The A-share market is characterized by a small upward fluctuation, with significant trading volumes above the three-year average, indicating robust market activity [5][9] International Market Performance - Major international indices such as the Dow Jones and S&P 500 experienced declines of 0.67% and 0.45% respectively, while the Nikkei 225 saw a slight increase of 0.62% [4] Industry Analysis - The semiconductor industry is showing strong performance, with a 6.01% increase in June 2025, outperforming the broader market [35] - The food and beverage sector is facing challenges, with a decline of 4.54% in June, while health products are performing well [27][28] - The automotive sector is benefiting from favorable policies and a growing market for electric vehicles, with a penetration rate of 45.76% for new energy vehicles [19][34] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on sectors with high growth potential such as technology, healthcare, and consumer goods, particularly in the context of upcoming mid-year earnings reports [5][21] - Specific investment opportunities are highlighted in the automotive sector, particularly in companies benefiting from "anti-involution" policies and the growth of electric vehicles [19][29] - The report recommends monitoring the semiconductor supply chain and AI technology developments, as these are expected to drive future growth [25][37]