生死赛点。 作者 / 新智元 编辑 / 艾伦 来源 / 新智元 （ID：AI_era） 在硅谷的聚光灯下，奥特曼正骑着独轮车，手里抛接着越来越多的球。 对 于 这 位 Op e nAI 的 掌 舵 人 来 说 ， 仅 仅 打 造 一 个 全 知 全 能 的 聊 天 机 器 人 似 乎 已 经 显 得 过于保守。 为了让那些挥舞着支票的投资人和观众保持亢奋，他不得不持续抛出新的概念：自研芯 片、电商整合、企业咨询，甚至是乔尼·艾维（J o n y I v e）操刀的消费级硬件。 然而，这场表演的入场费正变得令人咋舌。 2 0 2 6 年，对于这家史上增长最快的独角兽而言，注定是惊心动魄的「赛点」。 自 Ch a tGPT 于 2 0 2 2 年底横空出世以来，Op e nAI 已经从投资者那里筹集了超过 6 0 0 亿美元，创下了私营公司的历史纪录。 但奥特曼的胃口远未满足。 据核心消息人士透露，Op e nAI 正计划在 2 0 2 6 年进行新一轮融资，目标高达 1 0 0 0 亿 美元，这可能将公司的估值推向惊人的 8 3 0 0 亿美元。 作为对比，其 2 0 2 5 年 1 0 月的估值还在 5 0 ...

为了让那些挥舞着支票的投资人和观众保持亢奋，他不得不持续抛出新的概念：自研芯片、电商整合、企业咨询，甚至是乔尼·艾维（Jony Ive）操刀的消费级硬件。 在硅谷的聚光灯下，奥特曼正骑着独轮车，手里抛接着越来越多的球。 然而，这场表演的入场费正变得令人咋舌。 来源 | 新智元 图片系 Nano Banana Pro 生成 对于这位 OpenAI 的掌舵人来说，仅仅打造一个全知全能的聊天机器人似乎已经显得过于保守。 2026 年，对于这家史上增长最快的独角兽而言，注定是惊心动魄的「赛点」。 根据泄露的财务预测，OpenAI 预计在 2026 年将烧掉 170 亿美元 的现金，这一数字在 2025 年还是 90 亿美元 。 更令人心惊的是，这种亏损态势预计在随后的三年内不仅不会收敛，反而会继续叠加。 这像是一场关于现金流的俄罗斯轮盘赌。 吞 金 兽 的 胃 口 自 ChatGPT 于 2022 年底横空出世以来，OpenAI 已经从投资者那里筹集了超过 600 亿美元 ，创下了私营公司的历史纪录。 但奥特曼的胃口远未满足。 据核心消息人士透露，OpenAI 正计划在 2026 年进行新一轮融资，目标高达 1000 ...

Core Viewpoint - OpenAI is facing a critical year in 2026, with significant financial challenges and increasing competition, particularly from Google, which could impact its growth and profitability [1][3]. Financial Overview - OpenAI is projected to burn through $17 billion in cash in 2026, up from $9 billion in 2025, with losses expected to continue accumulating over the next three years [3][5]. - The company has raised over $60 billion from investors, the highest for any private company, primarily after the launch of ChatGPT in late 2022 [3][5]. - OpenAI's revenue surpassed $1 billion in 2023, with projections of $13 billion in 2025 and an annualized revenue of $20 billion by the end of that year [6]. Funding and Valuation - OpenAI is reportedly seeking up to $100 billion in funding, with a potential valuation of $830 billion, significantly higher than the $500 billion valuation from the last funding round in October [5]. - Amazon is in talks to invest up to $10 billion, while NVIDIA may invest up to $100 billion to support OpenAI's acquisition of its products [5]. Competitive Landscape - OpenAI's computational needs are expected to grow from 200 megawatts in 2023 to 1.9 gigawatts by 2025, with plans to add 30 gigawatts of computing capacity at a total cost of approximately $1.4 trillion [6]. - The performance gap between OpenAI's models and competitors has narrowed, with Google's Gemini 3 model outperforming OpenAI's GPT-5.1 on several metrics [7]. User Engagement and Market Dynamics - ChatGPT's monthly active users reached 910 million, while Gemini's users were at 345 million, indicating a competitive user engagement landscape [8]. - There are concerns about stagnation in subscription growth for ChatGPT, prompting OpenAI to prioritize improvements to the platform [8]. Strategic Initiatives - OpenAI is exploring new revenue streams, including allowing companies like Etsy and Walmart to sell products through its chatbot, while also planning to integrate advertising in the future [9]. - The company is focusing on enterprise clients, which typically have higher retention rates, and has established a consulting division to assist large businesses in deploying its technology [9]. Technological Development - OpenAI is pursuing vertical integration by developing custom chips, inspired by Google's strategy, to reduce costs associated with AI model training [10]. - Collaborations with Broadcom for chip development and hiring design talent from Apple indicate a commitment to enhancing its hardware capabilities [10]. Investor Sentiment and Future Outlook - Some investors express concerns about OpenAI's financial sustainability, comparing its situation to that of WeWork, which faced a collapse due to unsustainable growth expectations [11]. - The company's future hinges on its ability to commercialize ChatGPT effectively and achieve satisfactory enterprise sales performance [12].

继No Jitter对Dreamforce 2024的报道之后，今年的活动强调了向互操作性、连接数据、平台和工作流的转变，而不是推出独立功能。在实践中，这是为了 让Salesforce不断扩大的人工智能产品组合与客户已经依赖的系统无缝协作。 CTI论坛（ctiforum.com）(编译/老秦)：如果Dreamforce今年有一个招牌，它会写着："关于代理的一切。"Salesforce正在将Agentforce及其最新的人工智能 创新置于中心舞台，因为它正在更深入地推进企业自动化。但是，要想看到这些承诺是如何成为现实的，你必须在后台查看不断增长的合作伙伴网络，这 些合作伙伴在真实的业务系统中集成、实施和支持人工智能。 整合就是故事 今年早些时候，Salesforce对Genesys进行了后续投资，扩大了已经支持250多个共享客户的CX Cloud合作伙伴关系。结合对Informatica的收购，这些举措表 明Salesforce专注于连接层，使人工智能能够在复杂的企业环境中运行。 此次价值约80亿美元的Informatica收购增加了数据管理和集成功能，增强了Salesforce跨系统统一客户信息的能力。通过将 ...

小虎要长成猛虎了。 12月19日，中国大模型六小虎之一智谱，通过港交所聆讯，正式向IPO发起冲击。 两天后，六小虎中的另一虎MiniMax（稀宇科技）也同样来到这一步，争夺全球大模型第一股。 不论这两家中国公司谁能先成功上市，都意味着在资本化程度上将领先OpenAI等美国一众大模型巨头。 国产大模型有1%的概率成为OpenAI 恰好沐曦和摩尔线程市值就在3000亿元人民币左右。 都说国产GPU有1%概率成为英伟达，因而估值就是1%的英伟达，对应市值是440亿美元（3097亿元人民币）。 搬到大模型领域，这个逻辑依然行得通。 12月18日，外媒消息，OpenAI正在洽谈千亿美元融资，估值可能达到8300亿美元，其1%是83亿美元（约584亿元人民币）。 今年7月MiniMax完成近3亿美元融资，估值达到约300亿元人民币；智谱则累计已完成数十轮融资，仅今年就斩获超30亿元，估值约在300-400亿元人民币 区间。 甚至还不到1%，为什么差距能这么大？ 2022年，ChatGPT横空出世，2个月内用户数破亿，成为互联网史上增长最快的应用。 从聊天助手ChatGPT到视频生成Sora，再到推理模型o3、智能体工具A ...

2025年12月22日早盘，三大指数集体高开。海南自贸区、CPO、半导体等板块领涨。消息面上，上周五 美股科技股普涨，对A股科技线亦有所提振。另一方面，综合机构观点，中长期来看中国权益市场具备 结构性机遇，企业盈利改善、资金配置转移及政策制度优化将成为主要驱动力。配置机会上，全球百年 未有之大变局加速演进，国内经济底层逻辑转向新质生产力，人工智能、具身智能、新能源、可控核聚 变、量子科技、航空航天等"十五五"重点领域值得关注。 海外方面，近日，美国劳工统计局公布，美国11月失业率小幅攀升至4.6%，创下2021年9月以来的最高 水平；此外，上月发布的就业数据修正报告显示，受美国政府部门就业岗位锐减影响，10月非农就业人 数减少10.5万人。此次公布的11月就业数据很大程度上印证了此前降息 25 个基点的决策是合理的。随 着货币宽松、财政政策以及贸易不确定性的缓解，再加上AI支出作为新的增长引擎，确实预示着2026 年宏观背景或将更加有利。 海通国际指出，火山引擎在2025冬季FORCE原动力大会上围绕智能体（Agent）的规模化生产与应用落 地进行了系统化升级，推出新一代Responses API、上线Ser ...

wo[Table_Title] Research Report 21 Dec 2025 中国电子 China (Overseas) Technology 火山引擎 FORCE 大会追踪（2）： Agent 规模化落地，方舟与企业底座升 级 Volcengine FORCE(2): Scaling Agents to Production: Upgrades to Volcano Ark and Enterprise Foundations 姚书桥 Barney Yao 吕小潼 Xiaotong Lyu barney.sq.yao@htisec.com xt.lyu@htisec.com [Table_yemei1] Flash Analysis [Table_summary] (Please see APPENDIX 1 for English summary) 风险: 事件 2025 年 12 月 18 日，火山引擎在 2025 冬季 FORCE 原动力大会上发布了面向多模态 Agent 场景优化的豆包大模型在 2025 FORCE 原动力大会开发者日（上海）上，火山引擎围绕智能体（Agent）规模化生产与 ...

SpaceX将IPO的热度还没过，OpenAI又整了个大活： 计划在新一轮融资中募集1000亿美元。 若能筹得目标金额，OpenAI的估值可将飙升至8300亿美元。 而在两天以前，这个数字是5000亿美元。 短短48小时内，涨了3300亿美元…… 这就是OpenAI。 2023年你觉得290亿美元的估值很贵，2024年你觉得1570亿美元的估值是泡沫…… 当2025年底面对8300亿美元的估值时，又能说出什么呢？ 01 65倍"溢价" 传统的SaaS公司估值通常看市销率或市盈率。 根据Techloy及WSJ的报道，OpenAI在2025年的预计营收约为127亿美元。 巴克莱银行测算，这项技术落地后，GPT-6的训练效率将提升10倍，但前期需要430亿美元的算力储 备，这正是千亿融资的核心用途之一。 就像SpaceX的火箭，虽然烧钱，但一旦成功脱离地心引力，投资人是真的愿意买账。 按8300亿美元估值算，其市销率高达65倍。 作为对比，在SaaS最疯狂的2021年，Snowflake的市销率也就是50-80倍左右，现在大部分成熟的SaaS公 司已经回落到10-15倍区间。 那么，山姆奥特曼凭什么让投资人接受65 ...

Core Insights - The article discusses the advancements in AI technology, particularly focusing on the launch of Doubao Model 1.8 and Seedance 1.5 pro by Huoshan Engine, highlighting their capabilities in multi-modal understanding and content creation [3][4][6]. Group 1: Doubao Model 1.8 - Doubao Model 1.8 has significantly enhanced its multi-modal understanding capabilities, increasing video frame understanding from 640 to 1280 frames, which supports various applications like online education and industrial quality inspection [4][5]. - The model's tool usage and complex instruction adherence capabilities have been improved, making it suitable for enterprise-level tasks that require planning and execution [5][6]. - Doubao Model 1.8 supports a context window of 256K and offers API management for context, optimizing performance while reducing costs [5][6]. Group 2: Seedance 1.5 pro - Seedance 1.5 pro introduces a native audio-video joint generation architecture, allowing for real-time synchronization of audio and visual elements, enhancing the realism of generated videos [6][7]. - The model supports multi-language dialogue and precise lip-syncing, significantly improving the global creative potential of video content [7][8]. - A "Draft Sample" feature will be launched to allow creators to preview low-resolution samples, increasing efficiency by 65% and reducing ineffective production costs by 60% [8]. Group 3: AI Cloud-Native Architecture - Huoshan Engine is transitioning to an AI cloud-native architecture to support the scaling of enterprise Agent applications, addressing challenges in identity management and system integration [9][10]. - The AgentKit platform has been upgraded to cover the entire lifecycle of Agent development, deployment, and management [9]. - The average number of intelligent agents per enterprise is expected to increase from dozens in 2024 to over 200 in 2025, with applications expanding from consumer entertainment to serious production scenarios [10].

Core Insights - The AI market in China is rapidly evolving, with Huoshan Engine emerging as a leading player, particularly in the model-as-a-service (MaaS) sector, where it holds the largest market share domestically and ranks third globally [2][3] - The daily token usage of the Doubao model has surged to over 50 trillion, marking a tenfold increase compared to the previous year [1][4] - The focus for 2025 in the AI market will be on multimodal capabilities and agents, with Huoshan Engine launching several new products centered around these themes [3][6] Market Position and Growth - Huoshan Engine has established itself as a significant force in the AI sector, with projected revenues exceeding 200 billion in 2024, reflecting a growth rate of over 60% [6][23] - The company aims to simplify model usage by integrating multiple capabilities into a single API, contrasting with competitors who offer separate models for different functions [26][27] Product Innovations - The newly launched Seedance 1.5 pro video generation model emphasizes immediate usability, capable of producing synchronized audio-visual content without extensive post-production [8][15] - The model's advancements include improved lip-sync accuracy and enhanced immersion, making it particularly suitable for diverse content creation [13][21] Competitive Landscape - The AI video model market is characterized by rapid iteration, with companies focusing on producing fully publishable works rather than just raw video segments [7][9] - Huoshan Engine's approach to model training and optimization has led to a tenfold increase in inference speed, significantly reducing costs and enhancing performance [31][30] Future Directions - The company is exploring innovative billing models, such as the "AI Savings Plan," which offers tiered discounts to help businesses reduce costs by up to 47% [32][33] - Huoshan Engine is committed to building a comprehensive AI infrastructure that enables businesses to easily adopt advanced AI capabilities, aiming to make AI assistants as ubiquitous as websites and apps [38][39]