证券代码：688008 证券简称：澜起科技 公告编号：2025-043 澜起科技股份有限公司 本公司董事会及全体董事保证本公告内容不存在任何虚假记载、误导性陈述 或者重大遗漏，并对其内容的真实性、准确性和完整性依法承担法律责任。 重要内容提示： ? 经财务部门初步测算，澜起科技股份有限公司（以下简称"公司"）预计： 较上年同期增长85.50%~102.36%； 一、本期业绩预告情况 （一）业绩预告期间 （二）业绩预告情况 经财务部门初步测算，公司预计： 增长约58.17%； 较上年同期（法定披露数据）增长85.50%~102.36%； （三）本次业绩预告未经注册会计师审计。 二、上年同期业绩情况 （一）2024年半年度营业收入：16.65亿元。 （二）2024年半年度利润总额：6.40亿元。 （三）2024年半年度属于母公司所有者的净利润：5.93亿元。 （四）2024年半年度归属于母公司所有者的扣除非经常性损益的净利润： （五）2024年半年度每股收益：0.52元/股。 三、本期业绩变化的主要原因 （一）2025年上半年，公司预计实现营业收入约26.33亿元，较上年同期增 长约58.17%，其中互连类芯片销 ...

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Core Viewpoint - The storage industry is undergoing significant changes driven by the rise of High Bandwidth Memory (HBM), with DDR4 prices increasing and Samsung Electronics experiencing a decline in quarterly profits, indicating a shift in focus towards HBM production [1][4]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - DDR4 prices have surged due to production cuts, while HBM is becoming the focal point of competition in the storage sector, leading manufacturers to shift capacity towards HBM [1][4]. - Samsung Electronics reported a projected sales revenue of 74 trillion KRW (approximately 55.5 billion USD) for Q2 2025, a slight decrease of 0.09% year-on-year, with operating profit dropping by 55.94% to 4.6 trillion KRW (about 3.3 billion USD), marking the lowest level in six quarters [4]. - SK Hynix has gained market share in the DRAM sector, achieving a 36% share in Q1 2023, surpassing Samsung for the first time, and holding a 70% share in the HBM market [4][8]. Group 2: Technological Advancements - The industry is moving towards the development of HBM4, with SK Hynix and Micron completing certifications for their HBM3e products, while Samsung is expected to complete its HBM3e certification by Q3 2025 [5][6]. - HBM technology faces challenges in both front-end and back-end processes, with future developments expected to include increased stacking layers and new manufacturing techniques [9]. Group 3: Customization Trends - The demand for HBM is expected to grow due to the strong AI market, with Nvidia currently consuming 61% of HBM, but this share is projected to decrease as more ASIC suppliers enter the market [8][10]. - Custom HBM solutions are being developed by several IT companies, including Nvidia, Amazon, and Microsoft, with expectations for significant market expansion by 2026 when HBM4 is launched [10][11].

Core Viewpoint - 澜起科技 has submitted its listing application to the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, aiming to capitalize on its position as the largest memory interconnect chip supplier globally, with a projected market share of 36.8% in 2024 [1][3]. Company Overview - 澜起科技 is a leading fabless integrated circuit design company focused on providing innovative, reliable, and high-efficiency interconnect solutions for cloud computing and AI infrastructure [3][4]. - The product portfolio includes memory interface chips and high-performance interconnect chips, addressing interconnect bottlenecks while enhancing data transmission speed, reliability, and energy efficiency [3][4]. Product Lines - The company offers a full range of DDR2 to DDR5 memory interface chips and supporting chips, including Serial Presence Detect (SPD), temperature sensors (TS), and power management integrated circuits (PMIC) [3][4]. - The DDR5 memory interface chips serve as critical interconnect components between CPUs and DRAM modules in servers, enabling stable high-speed data transmission [3][4]. - New interconnect chips such as MRCD/MDB, CKD (clock driver), PCIe Retimer, and CXL MXC (memory expansion controller) are designed to enhance data transmission reliability and efficiency in AI servers and personal computers [3][4]. Market Potential - The memory interconnect chip market is expected to grow significantly from $1.2 billion in 2024 to $5 billion by 2030, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 27.4% [6]. - The PCIe and CXL interconnect chip market is projected to increase from $2.3 billion in 2024 to $9.5 billion by 2030, with a CAGR of 26.7% [6]. Financial Performance - For the fiscal years 2022, 2023, and projected figures for 2024 and 2025, 澜起科技 reported revenues of approximately RMB 3.67 billion, RMB 2.29 billion, RMB 3.64 billion, and RMB 1.22 billion respectively [6][7]. - The net profit for the same periods was approximately RMB 1.30 billion, RMB 0.45 billion, RMB 1.34 billion, and RMB 0.50 billion respectively [6][7].

Core Viewpoint - The storage industry is undergoing a significant transformation with HBM (High Bandwidth Memory) becoming the focal point, as manufacturers prepare for the mass production of HBM4 in the second half of the year, which is expected to dominate the market in 2024 [1][2][4]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - DDR4 prices have surged due to production cuts, while HBM is gaining traction as the competitive focus in the storage sector [1][4]. - Samsung Electronics reported a decline in operating profit, attributed to slower HBM progress compared to competitors, impacting its market position [4]. - SK Hynix has seen an increase in market share, with its HBM market share reaching 70%, while Samsung's share has decreased significantly [4][5]. Group 2: HBM Development and Production - SK Hynix and Micron are nearing completion of HBM3e product certification, with plans for HBM4 mass production preparations underway [5][6]. - Samsung is lagging in HBM development, with uncertainties surrounding its ability to commercialize higher-tier HBM4 in a timely manner [5][6]. Group 3: Customization Trends - The demand for HBM is expected to grow due to the AI boom, with Nvidia leading the market but facing increasing competition from other AI chip manufacturers [6][8]. - Customization in HBM is becoming a trend, with several IT companies, including Nvidia, Amazon, and Microsoft, pushing for tailored HBM solutions [8]. - The shift towards customized HBM is anticipated to significantly expand the market by 2026, as more clients adopt bespoke solutions [8].

Core Viewpoint - The latest survey by TrendForce indicates that the shift in production capacity by major DRAM manufacturers towards high-end products, along with the end-of-life (EOL) status of older DDR4 and LPDDR4X products, is driving market demand for legacy products, which is expected to increase DRAM prices significantly in Q3 2025 [1] Group 1 - Major DRAM manufacturers are transitioning production capacity to high-end products [1] - DDR4 and LPDDR4X for PC/Server and Mobile applications are entering their product lifecycle end [1] - Increased market demand for older generation products is leading to proactive inventory stocking [1] Group 2 - Traditional peak season inventory buildup is contributing to price increases [1] - Conventional DRAM prices are projected to rise by 10% to 15% quarter-over-quarter in Q3 2025 [1] - Including HBM, the overall DRAM price increase is expected to be between 15% to 20% quarter-over-quarter [1]

3Q25新旧世代DRAM交替，合约价走势分化，Consumer DDR4将季增逾40% 根据Tr endFor c e集邦咨询最新调查，由于三大DRAM原厂将产能转向高阶产品，并陆续宣布 PC/Se rve r用DDR4以及Mobil e用LPDDR4X进入产品生命周期末期(EOL)，引发市场对旧世代 产品积极备货，叠加传统旺季备货动能， 将推升2025年第三季一般型DRAM(Conventional DRAM)价格季增10%至15%，若纳入HBM，整体DRAM涨幅将季增15%至20% 。 点击右边 阅读原文 了解更多详情 预估3Q25 NAND Flash合约价季增5%至10%，手机需求弱抑制eMMC、UFS涨幅 根据Tr endFor c e集邦咨询最新调查，NAND Fl a sh市场历经2025年上半年的减产与库存去化， 供需失衡情况已明显改善。随着原厂转移产能至高毛利产品，市场流通供给量缩减。需求面则 有企业加码AI投资，以及NVIDIA（英伟达）新一代Bl a ckwe ll芯片大量出货支撑。展望第三季 NAND Fl a sh价格走势， 预估平均合约价将季增5%至10%，但eMMC、UFS产品因 ...

中信证券认为，前期关税担忧下美国市场的虹吸效应显著，但三季度初或进入到美铜关税利多因素的加 速兑现期，叠加LME和国内库存偏低，短期铜价波动或将加剧。预计后续美国区域市场将进一步得到 夯实，而LME和国内铜价将回归基本面和宏观因素主导，交易因素退潮后，供给偏紧、需求韧性、流 动性宽松等多方面有利因素将支撑后续铜价高位运行。建议关注铜价回归长逻辑背景下的板块配置机 遇。 光伏"反内卷"立竿见影 美光、三星、SK海力士退出DDR4市场，南亚科暂停报价事宜持续刺激DDR4市场，推涨DDR4市场价 格。截至2025年7月9日DXI指数收于83072.69点，周涨幅为0.3%，年初至今涨幅为86.1%。 湘财证券指出，三星、SK海力士、美光拟退出利基型DRAM市场，利基型DRAM供需反转价格向上， 2025年及2026年利基型DRAM价格有望保持在中高位水平。需求端，智能手机、PC、IOT及工控板块弱 复苏态势延续，叠加国产化替代仍为大势所趋，预计推动各类存储原厂端供应价格逐步上行，国内存储 原厂受益。 短期铜价波动或加剧 美国时间7月8日，特朗普表示考虑对进口到美国的铜征收50%的附加税。受此影响，7月8日COMEX ...

兆易创新 20250709 摘要 兆易创新二季度经营状况良好，Flash 产品线预计同比增长约 5%，MCU 产品线预计同比增长约 10%，利基 DRAM 受益于现货价格 上涨，同比预期增幅约为 20%。 三季度存储市场增长动力将由工业领域接替，包括工控、数字能源、安 防等，其中工控具有季节性，数字能源库存调整正常，安防领域头部客 户恢复正常提货节奏。 DRAM 业务毛利率显著提升，一季度综合毛利率为小个位数，五月份已 达 20%以上，全年预估综合毛利率可达 15%-20%。 2025 年 DRAM 营收占比预计达到 20%，其中 D4 产品成为主要增长点， 营收占比已达 60%左右，预计第三季度价格还会继续上涨。 DDR4 市场因大厂退出导致供不应求，缺口约 40%-50%，刚性需求如 信创项目、PC 条子等确保其价格维持较高水平，预计下半年存储市场价 格将持续增长。 赵毅赴港上市旨在加码研发投入，支持 AI 战略和全球化战略，重点布局 服务器、AI 服务器、Flash 存储及 MCU 研发，并在东南亚开发封测厂。 定制化存储业务瞄准高端市场，通过 Hyperbonding 堆叠技术提升带宽 和容量，预计 ...

交银国际研究 | 科技行业月报 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 部分科技股创新高，建议继续抓住 | AI 投资主线 | 评级: | 领先 | | 王大卫, PhD, CFA | Dawei.wang@bocomgroup.com | | | 部分科技指数创历史新高，科技股整体跑赢大盘。全球股市维持强劲走 势，且科技股普遍相比大盘走势更加强劲。MSCI 全球指数/纳斯达克 100 较 4 月 7 日的低位分别反弹约 24%/31%，并不断突破历史新高。 台积电 6 月营收同比增 27%，看好 2H25 2 纳米持续扩大的技术优势。我们 看好台积电在 2H25 进入 2 纳米量产后持续扩大的技术优势，预计 2 纳米产 能爬升节奏或与 3 纳米产能爬升节奏相仿，且 2 纳米初始客户流片数量大于 之前 3 纳米和 5 纳米流片数量。 预计存储价格 2H25 继续保持上涨趋势：DDR4 合约平均价继续明显上涨， DDR5 现货平均价 6 月开始恢复高速增长，NAND Flash 合约平均价延续年初 以来的增长趋势。我们认为，关税缓解后持续补库影响下，存储价格对今年 智能手机和消费 ...