据《东方财富研究中心》2月13日消息，近日Counterpoint发布的《2月内存价格追踪报告》，截至2026 年第一季度，内存价格环比上涨80%—90%，本轮上涨的主要推手是通用服务器DRAM价格大幅攀升。 以服务器级内存为例，64GB RDIMM合约价已从去年第四季度的450美元，飙升至第一季度的900美元 以上，且二季度有望突破1000美元关口。 Counterpoint高级分析师Jeongku Choi 指出："存储器行业盈利水平预计将达到前所未有的高度。2025年 第四季度，DRAM营业利润率已达到60%区间，这是通用DRAM利润率首次超过HBM。2026年第一季 度，DRAM利润率将首次突破历史峰值。" 此外，TrendForce集邦咨询最新数据显示，受惠于AI浪潮的推升，存储器与晶圆代工产值均将在2026年 同步创下新高。存储器产业受供给吃紧与价格飙升影响，产值规模大幅扩张至5516亿美元。尽管晶圆代 工产值同步创下2187亿美元的新高纪录，但存储器产值规模已攀升至晶圆代工的2倍以上。 TrendForce集邦咨询表示，随着Inference（推理）AI应用场景扩大，市场对高效能储存设备的需求远 ...

Market Overview - US CPI data release has heightened fears regarding AI's potential to disrupt various industries, leading to significant declines in US stocks, commodities, and cryptocurrencies, with funds flowing into US Treasury bonds [1] - The S&P 500 fell by 1.6%, the Nasdaq dropped over 2%, and the Dow Jones decreased by 1.34%. Cisco's weak guidance resulted in a 12% plunge, while Apple led tech giants with a 5% drop [2] - The 30-year and 10-year US Treasury yields both fell by over 7 basis points, indicating a strengthening of US bonds [3] AI and Technology Developments - OpenAI has released the Cerebras chip to support its models, posing a competitive threat to Nvidia [4] - Apple is expected to launch the iPhone 17e and an M4 chip version of the iPad Air in the coming weeks [5] - Xiaomi's robotics division has achieved top performance in benchmark tests, showcasing advancements in their technology [8] Domestic Policy and Industry Updates - China's National Development and Reform Commission has issued guidelines to promote high-quality development in low-altitude insurance, aiming to establish a mandatory insurance system for unmanned aerial vehicles by 2027 [7][15] - New automotive pricing regulations have been introduced, highlighting legal risks for manufacturers if actual factory prices fall below production costs [7] - Shenzhen has launched an "AI + Advanced Manufacturing Action Plan" to strengthen the semiconductor industry, focusing on AI chips [7] Semiconductor and Storage Sector Insights - Hua Hong Semiconductor reported record sales in Q4, turning a profit, with Q1 sales expected to be between $650 million and $660 million [9] - The storage sector is experiencing increased demand driven by AI applications, with significant price increases anticipated for DRAM and SSDs due to supply shortages [11] AI Safety and Regulation - Reports indicate a rise in the dissemination of AI-generated misinformation, prompting regulatory scrutiny and the removal of over 13421 accounts and 543,000 pieces of illegal content [12] - The need for AI regulation is emphasized due to emerging safety concerns related to AI-generated content and its implications for privacy and security [12] Investment Opportunities - The market outlook suggests a cautious optimism for structural opportunities, particularly in high-end manufacturing and digital economy sectors, as policies supporting growth are expected to be implemented post-holiday [10]

Group 1 - Kioxia's annual performance forecast significantly exceeds market expectations, with revenue and net profit targets higher than analyst predictions by approximately 35% to 60% [1] - Demand for storage driven by AI computing power is becoming dominant, leading to a sustained shortage in storage [1] - In the DRAM sector, major cloud service providers (CSPs) in North America and China are actively negotiating long-term agreements for server DRAM supply, resulting in a projected price increase of about 90% in Q1, marking the highest increase on record [1] Group 2 - The market demand for high-performance storage devices is expected to exceed forecasts due to the expansion of AI inference applications, with major CSPs in North America starting to ramp up orders for Enterprise SSDs from the end of 2025 [2] - The supply gap is prompting buyers to aggressively stock up, leading to a projected price increase of 53-58% for Enterprise SSDs in Q1 2026, the highest quarterly increase on record [1][2] - Financial Street Securities anticipates that the trend of tight storage capacity will continue into 2026, with domestic manufacturers like "Two Storage" having sufficient motivation to expand production, benefiting the domestic storage industry chain [2] Group 3 - Zhaoyi Innovation, a global leader in NOR Flash, is expanding into niche DRAM and MCU markets, accelerating its growth in automotive electronics and AI terminal markets [3] - Daway Co., Ltd. has a subsidiary, Daway Chuangxin, whose main products include various DRAM products (DDR3, DDR4, LPDDR4X, DDR5) and NAND Flash products (eMMC, BGA NAND Flash) [3]

Core Viewpoint - The storage price surge is ongoing, with memory prices expected to rise by 80%-90% by Q1 2026, driven by significant demand in the server DRAM market and a broader increase across all memory categories [1][2]. Group 1: Price Trends - According to Counterpoint, memory prices are projected to increase by 80%-90% by Q1 2026, with server DRAM prices being a major contributor [2]. - The price of 64GB RDIMM has surged from $450 in Q4 2022 to over $900 in Q1 2023, with expectations to exceed $1,000 in Q2 2023 [2]. - TrendForce has revised its forecast for Q1 2023, predicting a 90%-95% increase in Conventional DRAM contract prices, up from an earlier estimate of 55%-60% [3]. Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - Goldman Sachs has significantly raised its forecast for the supply-demand gap in the memory chip market, predicting a shortage of 4.9% for DRAM in 2026 and 2.5% in 2027, marking the most severe shortage in 15 years [4]. - The demand for server DRAM is expected to grow by 39% in 2026 and 22% in 2027, with servers becoming the primary driver of DRAM demand [4]. - The NAND market is also tightening, with Goldman Sachs forecasting a 4.2% shortage in 2026 and 2.1% in 2027, driven by strong enterprise SSD demand [5]. Group 3: Market Drivers - The current memory cycle is driven by AI demand, which is leading to a more comprehensive shortage compared to previous cycles, with cloud service providers (CSPs) driving the demand [3]. - The shift in customer demand from end-users to CSPs has resulted in exponential growth in procurement volumes, with less sensitivity to price increases [3]. - The AI industry's focus on real-time response and data access efficiency is increasing the demand for high-capacity, high-bandwidth DRAM [3]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The storage industry is expected to see significant revenue growth, with the market projected to reach $551.6 billion by 2026, driven by supply constraints and price surges [2]. - The current price and demand dynamics suggest that 2026 will be a year of substantial performance releases for storage companies, with a focus on the sustainability of price trends and company performance [6].

Group 1 - The semiconductor materials and equipment theme indices have experienced declines, with the Shanghai Stock Exchange Sci-Tech Innovation Board index down by 2.13% and the China Securities semiconductor materials and equipment index down by 2.15% as of February 5, 2026 [1][2] - Key stocks such as Huafeng Measurement Control and Tuojing Technology have seen significant declines, with Huafeng Measurement Control leading the drop at 6.60% [1] - The Sci-Tech semiconductor ETF (588170) has seen a recent price drop of 2.06%, while the semiconductor equipment ETF (562590) decreased by 2.17% [1] Group 2 - The Sci-Tech semiconductor ETF has recorded a net outflow of 59.39 million yuan, but over the past five trading days, it has seen a net inflow of 202 million yuan, averaging 40.37 million yuan per day [2] - Qualcomm reported better-than-expected Q1 FY2026 results but provided a revenue outlook below market expectations due to global memory supply shortages, projecting revenue between 10.2 billion to 11 billion USD for Q2 [2] - The demand for AI computing power is increasingly dominating storage needs, leading to a significant rise in DRAM prices, with server DRAM prices expected to increase by approximately 90% in Q1 [3] Group 3 - The Sci-Tech semiconductor ETF and its linked funds track the semiconductor materials and equipment theme index, focusing on hard tech companies in semiconductor equipment (60%) and materials (25%) [4] - The semiconductor equipment ETF (562590) also emphasizes semiconductor equipment (63%) and materials (24%), highlighting the importance of domestic substitution in the semiconductor industry [4]

Group 1 - The spring market is expected to experience a period of volatility, with a need for adjustment after the initial momentum of the year. The average holding period for A-shares has reached a historical low, indicating excessive trading behavior [1] - The nomination of Kevin Walsh as the Federal Reserve Chairman has led to market pricing in expectations of "QT + rate cuts" and a strong dollar, suggesting a prolonged period of a volatile market before a new upward trend can be established [1] - The AI industry continues to show growth potential, with a transition towards application-level advancements expected in the long term. The recovery of cyclical alpha has not yet reached extreme values, indicating further room for growth [1] Group 2 - TrendForce has significantly revised its forecasts for the first quarter prices of DRAM and NAND Flash products, with conventional DRAM contract prices expected to increase by 90-95% and NAND Flash prices by 55-60% [2] - Despite concerns over consumer electronics demand potentially impacting storage needs, the demand driven by AI computing is becoming dominant, sustaining storage shortages [2] - In the server DRAM segment, major cloud service providers are actively negotiating annual supply agreements, leading to a projected price increase of approximately 90% for the first quarter, marking the highest annual increase on record [3] Group 3 - The demand for high-performance storage devices is expected to exceed expectations due to the expansion of AI application scenarios, with significant order increases for enterprise SSDs anticipated [3] - As traditional storage supply-demand gaps persist, domestic storage manufacturers are under pressure to expand production. Yangtze Memory Technologies has officially registered its third phase, aiming for a 15% share of global NAND flash supply by the end of 2026 [3]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news highlights the performance of the AI sector, with the Zhongzheng AI Theme Index showing a slight increase of 0.04% and specific stocks like Chipone and Huaguan rising significantly [1] - The AI Artificial Intelligence ETF experienced a minor decline of 0.35%, with a latest price of 2.31 yuan and a trading volume of 1.82 billion yuan during the session [1] - TSMC's 2nm production capacity has been fully booked by global tech giants, with AMD planning to start production in 2026, while Google and AWS are expected to adopt this technology in 2027 [1] Group 2 - According to Dongfang Securities, the demand for high-performance storage devices is surging due to the rapid expansion of AI inference application scenarios, with Enterprise SSD prices expected to increase by 53-58% in Q1 2026, marking a historical high for quarterly growth [2] - Server DRAM contract prices are projected to rise by 90-95%, the highest increase on record, indicating a shift from structural to global storage shortages driven by AI [2] - The Zhongzheng AI Theme Index includes 50 listed companies involved in providing resources, technology, and application support for AI, reflecting the overall performance of AI-related securities [2] Group 3 - The AI Artificial Intelligence ETF closely tracks the Zhongzheng AI Theme Index, which is composed of companies that support AI development [3]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained as "Positive" [4] Core Insights - The demand for AI computing power is driving a persistent shortage in storage [2][8] - Major storage companies are experiencing strong performance, with AI demand expected to continue creating incremental opportunities [6] - The supply of niche storage is under pressure from mainstream storage, leading to a sustained tight supply situation [7] Summary by Sections Investment Recommendations and Targets - Key investment targets include domestic storage chip design companies such as Zhaoyi Innovation, Puran, Jucheng, Dongxin, Beijing Junzheng, and Hengsuo [2][8] - Domestic storage module manufacturers like Jiangbolong, Demingli, and Baiwei Storage are also highlighted [2] - Companies benefiting from storage technology iterations include Lanke Technology, Lianyun Technology, and Aojie Technology [2] - Semiconductor equipment firms such as Zhongwei Company, Jingzhida, and Beifang Huachuang are recommended [2] - Domestic packaging and testing companies like Shentek, Huicheng, and Tongfu Microelectronics are included in the investment targets [2] Market Dynamics - TrendForce has revised upward the price growth rates for DRAM and NAND Flash products for the first quarter, with DRAM contract prices expected to rise by 90-95% and NAND Flash by 55-60% [7] - AI computing demand is becoming the dominant factor in storage demand, with significant price increases anticipated for Server DRAM and Enterprise SSDs [7] - The AI inference process is expected to significantly alter data center storage structures, leading to increased demand for active data storage [7] Niche Storage Supply - Niche storage products like NOR Flash and MLC/SLC NAND Flash are expected to remain in tight supply due to reduced production from major suppliers focusing on mainstream products [7] - The global capacity for MLC NAND Flash is projected to decrease by 41.7% in 2026 due to supply constraints [7]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained as "Positive" [4] Core Insights - The demand for AI computing power is driving a persistent shortage in storage [2][8] - Major storage companies are showing strong performance, with AI demand expected to continue creating incremental opportunities [6] - The supply of niche storage is expected to remain tight due to pressure from mainstream storage products [7] Summary by Sections Investment Recommendations and Targets - Key investment targets include domestic storage chip design companies such as Zhaoyi Innovation, Puran, Jucheng, Dongxin, Beijing Junzheng, and Hengsuo [2][8] - Domestic storage module manufacturers like Jiangbolong, Demingli, and Baiwei Storage are also highlighted [2] - Companies benefiting from storage technology iterations include Lanke Technology, Lianyun Technology, and Aojie Technology [2] - Semiconductor equipment firms such as Zhongwei Company, Jingzhida, and Beifang Huachuang are recommended [2] - Domestic packaging and testing companies like Shentek, Huicheng, and Tongfu Microelectronics are included [2] - Supporting logic chip manufacturers such as Jinghe Integration are also mentioned [2] Market Dynamics - TrendForce has revised upward the price growth rates for DRAM and NAND Flash products for the first quarter, with DRAM contract prices expected to increase by 90-95% and NAND Flash by 55-60% [7] - AI computing demand is becoming the dominant factor in storage demand, with significant price increases expected for server DRAM and Enterprise SSDs [7] - The AI inference process is anticipated to change data center storage structures, leading to increased demand for active data storage [7] Niche Storage Outlook - Niche storage products like NOR Flash and MLC/SLC NAND Flash are expected to remain in short supply due to reduced production from major suppliers focusing on mainstream products [7] - The global capacity for MLC NAND Flash is projected to decrease by 41.7% in 2026 due to supply constraints [7]

Core Insights - The demand for AI and data centers is expected to exacerbate the global imbalance in memory supply and demand in Q1 2026, leading to increased pricing power for manufacturers [1] - TrendForce has revised its price forecasts for DRAM and NAND Flash products, indicating significant price increases for both categories in the upcoming quarter [1] DRAM Price Forecast - Conventional DRAM contract prices are projected to increase by 90-95% in Q1 2026, up from an earlier estimate of 55-60% [2] - Server DRAM prices are expected to rise by 88-93%, while PC DRAM prices are anticipated to exceed a 100% increase, marking a historical high [2][3] NAND Flash Price Forecast - NAND Flash contract prices are revised to increase by 55-60% in Q1 2026, up from a previous estimate of 33-38% [1][2] - The supply of NAND Flash is constrained as manufacturers shift some production capacity to DRAM, limiting new capacity additions [3] Market Dynamics - The Server DRAM market is characterized by intense competition among North American and Chinese cloud service providers, driving prices to record highs [3] - The Mobile DRAM market is also experiencing significant price increases, with LPDDR4X and LPDDR5X contract prices expected to rise by approximately 90% [3] Enterprise SSD Demand - The demand for high-performance storage devices, particularly Enterprise SSDs, has surged due to the expansion of inference AI applications, leading to a projected price increase of 53-58% in Q1 2026 [4]