Group 1: Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Group 2: Core View - The lead price is expected to show a mainly oscillating and moderately upward trend [4][35] Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Market Review - Last week, the price of the main contract PB2509 of Shanghai lead futures showed a weak oscillating trend, ranging from around 16,615 yuan/ton to about 17,085 yuan/ton [9] - Last week, the price of LME lead futures contracts was around 1,961 - 2,037 US dollars/ton, showing an oscillating and weakening trend [13] 2. Spot Analysis - As of August 1, 2025, the average price of 1 lead in the Yangtze River non - ferrous market was 16,690 yuan/ton, a decrease of 140 yuan from the previous trading day. The spot prices in Shanghai, Guangdong, and Tianjin were 16,460 yuan/ton, 16,565 yuan/ton, and 16,480 yuan/ton respectively. The premium/discount of 1 lead was maintained at around a discount of - 150 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5 yuan/ton from the previous trading day [16] 3. Supply and Demand Situation - As of July 25, 2025, the average processing fees (factory - delivered prices) in Jiyuan, Chenzhou, and Gejiu were 400 yuan/metal ton, 300 yuan/metal ton, and 700 yuan/metal ton respectively. As of June 30, 2025, the monthly refined lead output was 660,000 tons, an increase of 11,000 tons from the previous month and a year - on - year increase of 3.1%. From a seasonal perspective, the current output is at a relatively high level compared to the past five years [22] 4. Inventory Situation - As of August 1, 2025, the refined lead inventory on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 63,283 tons, an increase of 29 tons from the previous week. As of August 1, 2025, the LME lead inventory was 275,325 tons, a decrease of 1,175 tons from the previous trading day, and the proportion of cancelled warrants was 26.73% [28] 5. Fundamental Analysis - On July 30, 2025, the Federal Reserve announced that it would keep the target range of the federal funds rate unchanged between 4.25% and 4.5%, marking the fifth consecutive "standstill" in 2025. Global lead supply and demand are basically balanced, with both lead consumption and lead supply decreasing. Global lead mine production continues to grow. Lead processing fees have changed little and remain at a low level. Lead production has maintained year - on - year growth and ended the month - on - month decline. The Shanghai lead inventory has slightly increased, and the inventory level is at a moderate level in recent years. The LME lead inventory has decreased, and the inventory level is at a high level in recent years [3][34] 6. Future Outlook - The lead price is expected to show a mainly oscillating and moderately upward trend [4][35]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View - Macroscopically, Fed Chair Powell is facing challenges. A potential resignation could cause financial market turmoil, while Fed rate - cuts would benefit the non - ferrous sector. - On the supply side, the开工 rate and output of primary lead smelters have declined due to falling lead prices. The supply of recycled lead is tight because of the limited supply of waste batteries. If the supply of waste batteries remains tight, the overall lead supply increment will be restricted. - On the demand side, the lead - acid battery industry, the main consumer of lead, is approaching the traditional peak season, but the actual spot trading is mediocre. The slow inventory reduction of dealers suppresses the enthusiasm of battery factories, and the seasonal peak effect has not appeared yet. - In terms of inventory, overseas and domestic inventories are rising, and the overall demand is slowing down. - The lead price remained in a narrow - range fluctuation, and the operation suggestion is to go long at low prices. [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main Shanghai lead futures contract was 16,890 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan; the 3 - month LME lead quotation was 2,028.5 dollars/ton, up 14 dollars. - The price difference between the 08 - 09 contracts of Shanghai lead was - 40 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan; the trading volume of Shanghai lead was 106,464 lots, up 4,398 lots. - The net position of the top 20 in Shanghai lead was - 749 lots, up 1,883 lots; the warehouse receipts of Shanghai lead were 60,259 tons, up 200 tons. - The inventory of the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 62,335 tons, up 7,186 tons; the LME lead inventory was 263,150 tons, up 650 tons. [3] 3.2 Spot Market - The spot price of 1 lead on the Shanghai Non - ferrous Metals Network was 16,700 yuan/ton, down 25 yuan; the spot price of 1 lead in the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Metals Market was 16,850 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan. - The basis of the main lead contract was - 190 yuan/ton, down 65 yuan; the LME lead premium (0 - 3) was - 25.21 dollars/ton, up 0.19 dollars. [3] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The average operating rate of primary lead was 70.84%, down 7.03 percentage points; the weekly output of primary lead was 3.32 tons, down 0.29 tons. - The processing fee of 60% lead concentrate at major ports was - 50 dollars/kiloton, unchanged; the global lead ore output was 399.7 kilotons, down 3.7 kilotons. - The domestic processing fee of lead concentrate was 540 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan. - The import volume of lead concentrate was 11.97 tons, up 2.48 tons; the import volume of refined lead was 815.37 tons, down 1,021.76 tons; the export volume of refined lead was 2,109.62 tons, up 223.33 tons. [3] 3.4 Downstream Situation - The export volume of batteries was 41.45 million pieces, down 425,000 pieces; the average price of lead - antimony alloy for batteries was 19,950 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan. - The output of automobiles was 2.8086 million, up 0.1666 million; the output of new - energy vehicles was 1.647 million, up 0.073 million. [3] 3.5 Industry News - Trump criticized Powell again, saying that the FOMC should take action, and "The Fed Whisperer" thought it impossible. - Bessent said they were not in a hurry to nominate a new Fed chair, and Trump would not fire Powell. - US House Speaker Johnson was "disappointed" with Powell, and the legal compliance of firing the Fed chair was unclear. [3]

Group 1: Report Title and Investment Rating - Report Title: "Shanghai Lead May Face Adjustment" [1] - Investment Rating: Not provided Group 2: Core View - The supply of primary and recycled lead is increasing, but the peak - season demand has not started yet. The supply - demand situation of lead is weakening marginally. With the loosening of waste battery costs, the pressure on high lead prices is increasing, and lead prices may face adjustment. Attention should be paid to the possibility of further improvement in demand later [7] Group 3: Fundamental Changes Processing Fees - In May 2025, China imported 103,900 tons of lead concentrates, a 6% month - on - month decrease. The domestic lead concentrate imports continued to decline month - on - month but remained at a moderately high level. The supply of domestic concentrates became more tense, and the processing fees of domestic and foreign lead concentrates continued to decline at a low level. In July, the domestic monthly processing fee was 400 - 700 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 50 yuan; the imported monthly processing fee was - 60 - - 30 US dollars/dry ton, a month - on - month decrease of 15 US dollars. The domestic weekly processing fee for lead ore was 400 - 700 yuan/ton, remaining flat week - on - week; the imported weekly processing fee was - 70 - - 40 US dollars/dry ton, also remaining flat week - on - week [3] Supply - In May 2025, the electrolytic lead output was 331,200 tons, a 3.53% month - on - month increase and a 14.7% year - on - year increase. In June (regular maintenance season), most enterprises planned to start maintenance after mid - June, and the reduction was obvious in late June. The output of recycled refined lead in May was 223,500 tons, significantly lower than expected, a 36.4% month - on - month decrease and a 16.5% year - on - year decrease. In June, the price of waste batteries rebounded, but the profit of recycled lead enterprises did not improve, and the scale of production reduction of recycled lead was still large. Last week, the operating rate of primary lead in three provinces decreased by 3.78 percentage points to 66.21% week - on - week. In July, some primary lead enterprises resumed production after maintenance, and the operating rate rebounded significantly this week. Last week, the weekly operating rate of recycled lead in four provinces was 34.62%, a 4.96 - percentage - point decrease week - on - week. Last week, the price of waste batteries increased with the rising lead price, and the profit of recycled lead improved. This week, the price of waste batteries fluctuated slightly downward, and the profit of recycled lead continued to recover. Some recycled lead enterprises were more willing to resume production, and the supply of recycled lead was expected to gradually increase. Recently, the internal - external price ratio fluctuated at a low level, and the lead ingot import window remained closed [4] Consumption - Last week, the weekly comprehensive operating rate of lead - acid battery enterprises in five provinces decreased week - on - week. At the end of the year, many large enterprises closed their accounts and reduced or stopped production. The willingness of dealers to take delivery was average during the week. Battery factories actively reduced prices to destock, but the effect was not good. The operating rate of large lead - acid battery enterprises was 63%, slightly lower than the previous week. The inventory of finished batteries was 30 days, and the inventory of raw material lead ingots was 4 days. The operating rate of small and medium - sized battery factories was 60 - 65%, the inventory of finished batteries was 21 days, and the raw material inventory was 4 days. This week, the rainy season ended in many places, and battery enterprises that reduced production at the end of the year resumed production. However, it was currently in the transition period between the off - season and the peak - season, and the peak - season demand had not started yet. Market dealers reported that orders were poor and the willingness to replenish inventory was low [5] Spot and Inventory - As of the week ending June 27, the premium of the domestic lead spot to the active month's contract decreased, and the premium was 35 yuan at the weekend. The discount of the LME lead spot narrowed slightly, and the discount was 22.14 US dollars at the end of last week. As of the week ending June 27, the weekly inventory of LME lead decreased by 10,650 tons to 273,400 tons. Although the inventory decreased significantly from a high level, it was still at an absolute high level in the past five years. The weekly inventory of SHFE lead increased by 638 tons to 51,900 tons. As of June 30, the domestic social inventory was 52,300 tons, and the inventory was gradually accumulating. Currently, the social inventory was at a moderately low level [6] Group 4: Market Outlook and Strategy - Last week, the LME lead inventory decreased significantly from a high level but remained at an absolute high level in the past five years. The spot discount narrowed slightly, and the supply - demand of overseas lead remained relatively loose. In May, the import volume of lead concentrates continued to decline month - on - month but was still higher than the same period in previous years. The monthly processing fees of domestic and foreign lead ores further declined at a low level, and the expectation of tight supply of lead concentrates intensified. In July, many primary lead enterprises resumed production after maintenance. The price of waste batteries loosened, the profit of recycled lead enterprises was recovering, and the willingness of recycled lead enterprises to resume production was high. It was expected that the short - term tight supply situation of lead would ease. This week, the rainy season ended in many places, and battery enterprises that reduced production at the end of the year resumed production. However, it was currently in the transition period between the off - season and the peak - season, and the peak - season demand had not started yet. Market dealers reported that orders were poor and the willingness to replenish inventory was low, and the spot was quoted at a discount. Overall, the supply of primary and recycled lead increased, the peak - season demand had not started yet, the supply - demand situation of lead weakened marginally, and with the loosening of waste battery costs, the pressure on high lead prices increased, and lead prices may face adjustment. Attention should be paid to the possibility of further improvement in demand later [7]

Group 1: Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The lead price is currently in a short - term upward trend, driven by improved macro - sentiment and expectations of consumption improvement. However, the recovery of secondary lead smelter profits increases the expectation of resuming production, which is not conducive to the lead price. The lead price is expected to be volatile and slightly stronger in the short term, and there is a risk of price retracement when the positive sentiment fades [3][6][8]. Group 3: Summary by Sections 1. Transaction Data - From June 20th to June 27th, the SHFE lead price rose from 16,810 yuan/ton to 17,125 yuan/ton, an increase of 315 yuan/ton; the LME lead price rose from 1,995 dollars/ton to 2,041.5 dollars/ton, an increase of 46.5 dollars/ton. The Shanghai - London ratio decreased from 8.43 to 8.39. The SHFE inventory increased by 638 tons to 51,929 tons, while the LME inventory decreased by 10,650 tons to 273,425 tons. The social inventory increased by 0.03 million tons to 5.6 million tons, and the spot premium decreased by 10 yuan/ton to - 170 yuan/ton [4]. 2. Market Review - Last week, the main contract of SHFE lead switched to PB2508, breaking through the 17,000 - yuan integer mark and rising strongly, with a weekly increase of 1.87%. The LME lead price also broke through the shock range, with a weekly increase of 2.33%. In the spot market, after the SHFE lead price rose and then fell, holders maintained a discount for sales, and the supply of secondary refined lead increased with an expanded discount, resulting in sluggish trading in the electrolytic lead market [5]. 3. Industry News - In July, the average domestic and imported lead concentrate processing fees were 550 yuan/metal ton and - 45 dollars/dry ton respectively, down 50 yuan/metal ton and - 15 dollars/dry ton month - on - month [8]. 4. Related Charts - The report provides multiple charts, including SHFE and LME lead prices, Shanghai - London ratio, inventory, lead ingot premium, price difference between primary and secondary lead, waste battery price, secondary lead enterprise profit, lead concentrate processing fee, primary and secondary lead production, lead ingot social inventory, and refined lead import profit and loss [10][11][13][15][17][21].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoint The overall supply of Shanghai lead has declined, which provides some support for prices. However, the price of Shanghai lead continues to decline under the influence of weakening demand. Affected by the diminishing marginal effect of national subsidies, domestic inventories have increased slightly, while overseas inventories remain high, putting significant pressure on lead prices. Technically, it is currently in a consolidation structure, and it is expected to continue consolidating for some time. It is recommended to go short on rallies [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the Shanghai lead main contract was 16,845 yuan/ton, a decrease of 35 yuan; the LME 3 - month lead quotation was 1,988 US dollars/ton, an increase of 14 US dollars [2]. - The price difference between the 07 - 08 month contracts of Shanghai lead was 5 yuan/ton, an increase of 10 yuan; the trading volume of Shanghai lead was 80,384 lots, a decrease of 6,808 lots [2]. - The net position of the top 20 in Shanghai lead was - 1,179 lots, a decrease of 2,189 lots; the Shanghai lead warehouse receipts were 42,198 tons, an increase of 399 tons [2]. - The inventory of the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 47,936 tons, an increase of 1,436 tons; the LME lead inventory was 279,975 tons, a decrease of 1,300 tons [2]. 现货市场 - The spot price of 1 lead on the Shanghai Non - ferrous Metals Network was 16,625 yuan/ton, unchanged; the spot price of 1 lead in the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Metals Market was 16,830 yuan/ton, an increase of 110 yuan [2]. - The basis of the lead main contract was - 220 yuan/ton, an increase of 35 yuan; the LME lead premium (0 - 3) was - 27.95 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 0.97 US dollars [2]. - The price of lead concentrate (50% - 60%) in Jiyuan was 15,796 yuan, an increase of 92 yuan; the price of domestic recycled lead (≥98.5%) was 16,570 yuan/ton, an increase of 60 yuan [2]. Upstream Situation - The WBMS supply - demand balance of lead was - 18,700 tons, an increase of 7,100 tons; the number of recycled lead production enterprises was 68, unchanged [2]. - The capacity utilization rate of recycled lead was 51.28%, a decrease of 3.13 percentage points; the monthly output of recycled lead was 224,200 tons, a decrease of 67,500 tons [2]. - The average weekly operating rate of primary lead was 70.88%, an increase of 0.31 percentage points; the weekly output of primary lead was 35,000 tons, an increase of 11,000 tons [2]. - The processing fee of lead concentrate (60%) at major ports was - 30 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the ILZSG lead supply - demand balance was 16,400 tons, an increase of 48,800 tons [2]. - The global lead ore output was 399,700 tons, a decrease of 3,700 tons; the monthly lead ore import volume was 119,700 tons, an increase of 24,800 tons [2]. Industry Situation - The monthly refined lead import volume was 815.37 tons, a decrease of 1,021.76 tons; the average domestic processing fee of lead concentrate to the factory was 720 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - The monthly refined lead export volume was 2,109.62 tons, an increase of 223.33 tons; the average price of waste batteries in the market was 10,073.21 yuan/ton, an increase of 23.21 yuan [2]. 下游情况 - The monthly export volume of batteries was 41,450,000, a decrease of 425,000; the average price of lead - antimony alloy (for batteries, containing 2% antimony) was 20,200 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - The Shenwan industry index of batteries was 1,690.34 points, a decrease of 4.16 points; the monthly automobile output was 2.604 million, a decrease of 440,600 [2]. - The monthly new energy vehicle output was 1.647 million, an increase of 73,000 [2]. 行业消息 - India and the US are expected to reach a temporary trade agreement by the end of the month, and the US and Mexico are close to reaching an agreement on steel import tariffs [2]. - Trump said the Los Angeles riot was a "foreign invasion", and a US judge rejected California's request to immediately stop the Trump administration from sending troops to the state [2]. - The White House denied that Treasury Secretary Bessent was the candidate for the next Fed chairman [2]. - The EU's 18th round of sanctions against Russia proposed to lower the price cap of Russian oil to 45 US dollars, and Putin announced the extension of counter - measures [2]. - The Russian ambassador to the US said that a new round of Russia - US talks will be held in Moscow soon [2]. - Five countries including the UK announced sanctions against two far - right Israeli ministers [2]. - The UK's employment in May had the largest decline since 2020, and traders fully priced in two more interest rate cuts by the Bank of England this year [2].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View of the Report - The overall supply of Shanghai lead has declined, which provides some support for prices. However, the price of Shanghai lead continues to decline under the influence of weakening demand. Affected by the diminishing marginal effect of national subsidies on consumption, domestic inventories have slightly increased, while overseas inventories remain high, putting significant pressure on lead prices. Attention should be paid to the new impacts brought by changes in tariff policies. Technically, it is currently in a triangular consolidation structure and is about to reach the resistance level. It is recommended to go short on rallies [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the Shanghai lead main contract is 16,880 yuan/ton, up 115 yuan; the 3 - month lead quotation on LME is 1,974 US dollars/ton, down 7 US dollars. The 07 - 08 month contract spread of Shanghai lead is - 5 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan. The position of Shanghai lead is 87,192 lots, up 263 lots. The net position of the top 20 in Shanghai lead is 1,010 lots, up 826 lots. The warehouse receipts of Shanghai lead are 42,198 tons, up 399 tons. The inventory of SHFE is 47,936 tons, up 1,436 tons; the LME lead inventory is 281,275 tons, down 1,375 tons [2] 现货市场 - The basis of the lead main contract is - 255 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan. The LME lead premium (0 - 3) is - 26.98 US dollars/ton, down 3.9 US dollars. The price of lead concentrate 50% - 60% in Jiyuan is 15,796 yuan, up 92 yuan. The price of domestic recycled lead (≥98.5%) is 16,510 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] Upstream Situation - The average operating rate of primary lead is 70.88%, up 0.31 percentage points. The weekly output of primary lead is 35,000 tons, up 1,100 tons. The processing fee of lead concentrate 60% at major ports is - 30 US dollars/kiloton, unchanged. The global lead ore output of ILZSG is 399,700 tons, down 3,700 tons. The monthly import volume of lead ore is 119,700 tons, up 24,800 tons [2] Industry Situation - The monthly import volume of refined lead is - 1,021.76 tons. The average domestic processing fee of lead concentrate to the factory is 815.37 yuan/ton, unchanged from 720 yuan. The monthly export volume of refined lead is 2,109.62 tons, up 223.33 tons. The average market price of waste batteries is 10,050 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan [2] Downstream Situation - The average price of lead - antimony alloy (for batteries, containing 2% antimony) is 41,450 yuan/ton. The monthly export volume of batteries is 20,200,000 pieces, up 750,000 pieces. The Shenwan industry index of batteries and other power sources is 1,694.5 points, up 26.21 points. The monthly automobile output is 2.604 million vehicles, down 440,600 vehicles. The monthly new - energy vehicle output is 1.647 million vehicles [2] Industry News - There are multiple news including protests in Los Angeles, the US Department of Justice's request to extend the suspension of the Trump tariff invalidation judgment, Trump's statements on not considering a meeting with Musk, the US Congressional Budget Office's prediction on debt - ceiling measures, the US Senate's plan to introduce a major adjustment plan for the Trump tax - reform bill, Trump's new - born savings plan, Japan's negotiation plans, and Japan's consideration of repurchasing some ultra - long - term bonds [2] Macro - aspect - In May in the US, the newly - added non - farm payrolls were slightly better than expected, but the data of the previous two months were significantly revised down; the unemployment rate was stable, and the average hourly wage was better than expected. Bets on the Fed's interest - rate cuts decreased. With fewer subsequent interest - rate cuts, there will be continuous unrest in the US, which will have a greater impact on lead demand [2]