Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The supply of lead ingots is increasing, with the apparent supply of domestic lead ingots reaching 72.39 million tons in November 2025, a year - on - year increase of 9.9%. The downstream battery enterprise operating rate is marginally warming up, but the social inventory of lead ingots is marginally accumulating. Currently, the lead price is near the upper edge of the long - term oscillation range, and the contradiction between long and short positions of macro funds and industrial seat funds is intensifying. Although the non - ferrous sector is still regarded as bullish in the double - loose cycle, the subsequent trend of leading varieties in the sector and the Shanghai - London ratio need to be observed [11] Summary by Directory 1. Weekly Assessment - **Price Review**: On Friday, the Shanghai Lead Index closed down 0.37% at 17,473 yuan/ton, with a total unilateral trading position of 122,500 lots. The LME 3S lead price fell 8 to $2,075/ton, with a total position of 174,800 lots. The average price of SMM 1 lead ingots was 17,300 yuan/ton, and the average price of recycled refined lead was 17,100 yuan/ton, with a refined - scrap price difference of 200 yuan/ton [11] - **Domestic Structure**: The SHFE lead ingot futures inventory was 27,300 tons, and the social inventory of lead ingots in major domestic markets was 27,400 tons, an increase of 2,600 tons from January 12. The domestic primary basis was - 175 yuan/ton, and the spread between continuous contracts and the first - month contract was - 60 yuan/ton [11] - **Overseas Structure**: The LME lead ingot inventory was 211,400 tons, and the LME lead ingot cancelled warrants were 48,700 tons. The overseas cash - 3S contract basis was - $43.58/ton, and the 3 - 15 spread was - $107.3/ton [11] - **Cross - Market Structure**: The ex - exchange Shanghai - London ratio was 1.215, and the import profit and loss of lead ingots was 192.55 yuan/ton [11] - **Industry Data**: At the primary end, the port inventory of lead concentrates was 46,000 tons, and the factory inventory was 483,000 tons, equivalent to 33.6 days. The import TC of lead concentrates was - $145/dry ton, and the domestic TC was 300 yuan/metal ton. The primary operating rate was 67.04%, and the primary ingot factory inventory was 24,000 tons. At the recycled end, the recycled lead scrap inventory was 93,000 tons, the weekly production of recycled lead ingots was 46,000 tons, and the recycled ingot factory inventory was 23,000 tons. The demand - side lead - acid battery operating rate was 70.77% [11] 2. Primary Supply - **Imports**: In November 2025, the net import of lead concentrates was 109,800 physical tons, a year - on - year increase of 15.7% and a month - on - month increase of 11.7%. From January to November, the cumulative net import of lead concentrates was 1,278,500 physical tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 14.3%. The net import of silver concentrates in November was 180,900 physical tons, a year - on - year increase of 26.5% and a month - on - month increase of 21.1%. From January to November, the cumulative net import of silver concentrates was 1,686,600 physical tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 7.2% [15] - **Production**: In December 2025, China's lead concentrate production was 126,300 metal tons, a year - on - year increase of 4.04% and a month - on - month decrease of 7.54%. From January to December, the total production of lead concentrates was 1,658,200 metal tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 9.89% [17] - **Total Supply**: In November 2025, the total supply of lead concentrates in China was 274,900 metal tons, a year - on - year increase of 10.09% and a month - on - month increase of 3.75%. From January to November, the cumulative supply of lead concentrates was 2,973,600 metal tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 10.62% [19] - **Inventory and Processing Fees**: The port inventory of lead concentrates was 46,000 tons, and the factory inventory was 483,000 tons, equivalent to 33.6 days. The import TC of lead concentrates was - $145/dry ton, and the domestic TC was 300 yuan/metal ton [21][23] - **Smelting Operating Rate and Output**: The primary operating rate was 67.04%, and the primary ingot factory inventory was 24,000 tons. In December 2025, China's primary lead production was 332,700 tons, a year - on - year and month - on - month increase of 1.56%. From January to December, the total production of primary lead ingots was 3,847,200 tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 6.32% [26] 3. Recycled Supply - **Raw Materials and Weekly Production**: The recycled lead scrap inventory was 93,000 tons. The weekly production of recycled lead ingots was 46,000 tons, and the recycled ingot factory inventory was 23,000 tons. In December 2025, China's recycled lead production was 354,500 tons, a year - on - year increase of 10.3% and a month - on - month decrease of 5.04%. From January to December, the total production of recycled lead ingots was 3,962,900 tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 4.52% [31][33] - **Imports and Total Supply**: In November 2025, the net export of lead ingots was - 23,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 262.0% and a month - on - month increase of 52.6%. From January to November, the cumulative net export of lead ingots was - 118,200 tons, a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 32.4%. The total domestic supply of lead ingots in November was 723,900 tons, a year - on - year increase of 9.9% and a month - on - month increase of 5.3%. From January to November, the cumulative domestic supply of lead ingots was 7,241,100 tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 4.4% [35] 4. Demand Analysis - **Battery Operating Rate and Apparent Demand**: The demand - side lead - acid battery operating rate was 70.77%. In November 2025, the apparent demand for domestic lead ingots was 680,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.9% and a month - on - month decrease of 1.4%. From January to November, the cumulative apparent demand for domestic lead ingots was 7,206,400 tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 3.6% [38] - **Battery Exports**: In November 2025, the net export volume of batteries was 1,530,070 units, a year - on - year decrease of 22.0% and a month - on - month decrease of 5.23%. From January to November, the total net lead - containing export of batteries was 19,680,580 units, and the cumulative net lead - containing export of batteries decreased by 10.47% year - on - year [41] - **Inventory Days**: In December 2025, the finished - product inventory days of lead - acid batteries in factories increased from 20.9 days to 21.5 days, and the inventory days of lead - acid batteries in dealers increased from 40.7 days to 43.6 days [43] - **Terminal Demand**: In the two - wheeled vehicle sector, although the production decline of electric bicycles directly affected the new - installation demand, the continuous growth of delivery scenarios such as express delivery and takeout improved the new - installation consumption of electric two - and three - wheeled vehicles. In the automotive sector, the contribution of lead demand is expected to maintain stable growth. Although new - energy vehicles are gradually replacing lead - acid batteries, the high stock of existing vehicles still provides support for lead consumption. In the base - station sector, the increasing number of communication base stations and 5G base stations has steadily increased the demand for lead - acid batteries [47][49][52] 5. Supply - Demand Inventory - **Domestic Supply - Demand Balance**: In November 2025, the domestic lead ingot supply - demand difference showed a surplus of 700 tons. From January to November, the cumulative domestic lead ingot supply - demand difference showed a shortage of - 8,400 tons [61] - **Overseas Supply - Demand Balance**: In October 2025, the overseas refined lead supply - demand difference showed a surplus of 5,400 tons. From January to October, the cumulative overseas refined lead supply - demand difference showed a surplus of 98,400 tons [64] 6. Price Outlook - **Domestic Structure**: The SHFE lead ingot futures inventory was 27,300 tons, and the social inventory of lead ingots in major domestic markets was 27,400 tons, an increase of 2,600 tons from January 12. The domestic primary basis was - 175 yuan/ton, and the spread between continuous contracts and the first - month contract was - 60 yuan/ton [69] - **Overseas Structure**: The LME lead ingot inventory was 211,400 tons, and the LME lead ingot cancelled warrants were 48,700 tons. The overseas cash - 3S contract basis was - $43.58/ton, and the 3 - 15 spread was - $107.3/ton [71] - **Cross - Market Structure**: The ex - exchange Shanghai - London ratio was 1.215, and the import profit and loss of lead ingots was 192.55 yuan/ton [74] - **Position Analysis**: The net long position of the top 20 in Shanghai lead decreased, the investment fund in LME lead turned net long, and the net short position of commercial enterprises increased. The contradiction between speculative funds and industrial funds in terms of positions intensified [77]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The supply - demand contradiction of lead in China is limited, and Shanghai lead may fluctuate widely. In the medium term, attention should be paid to the production dynamics of secondary lead, downstream demand, and domestic inventory changes [5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Fundamental Changes - **Processing Fees**: In November 2025, China imported 110,000 tons of lead concentrate in physical quantity, a year - on - year increase of 15.8% and a month - on - month increase of 11.7%. The domestic lead concentrate market demand is high in winter, and the domestic mine supply shortage continues. The domestic and overseas lead concentrate processing fees remain stable at a low level. The domestic monthly processing fee in January is 200 - 400 yuan/ton, and the import monthly processing fee is - 160--130 US dollars/dry ton, both unchanged month - on - month. The domestic weekly processing fee for lead ore is 250 - 350 yuan/ton, and the import weekly processing fee is - 160--130 US dollars/dry ton, also unchanged week - on - week [2]. - **Supply** - **Primary Lead**: In December 2025, the primary lead output was 332,700 tons, a month - on - month and year - on - year increase of 1.56%. The weekly operating rate of SMM's three - province primary lead smelters last week was 66.60%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.66%. Some smelters in Hunan, Yunnan, South China, and East China have production fluctuations, maintenance, or delayed resumption of production [3]. - **Secondary Lead**: In December 2025, the secondary refined lead output was 268,400 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 9.35% and a year - on - year increase of 0.83%. The weekly operating rate of SMM's four - province secondary lead last week was 49.01%, a week - on - week increase of 11.42%. After the environmental protection control was lifted, the production of secondary lead enterprises in Anhui gradually resumed. Some enterprises in Henan increased or decreased production due to different reasons. Some large smelters in Inner Mongolia expressed the intention to stop production. The raw material inventory of secondary lead enterprises has further declined, and the later supply release pressure is still limited. The import window of refined lead continues to open, and the profit has increased [3]. - **Consumption** - The weekly comprehensive operating rate of SMM's five - province lead - acid battery enterprises last week was 65.65%, a week - on - week increase of 0.95%. After the holiday factor is eliminated, the production of lead - acid battery enterprises will continue to recover. The operating rate of large battery enterprises is 70 - 80%, and that of small and medium - sized battery enterprises is about 70%. The finished battery inventory is generally more than 22 days. The energy storage and automobile sectors drive the consumption resilience, but the sales of new - standard electric two - wheeled vehicles are poor, and some enterprises' orders have shrunk [4]. - As of the week of January 9, the domestic lead spot basis fluctuated, and the lead spot basis was at a discount of 15 yuan at the end of last week. The LME lead spot continued to be at a deep discount, with a discount of - 44.05 US dollars at the end of last week [4]. - **Inventory** - As of the week of January 9, the LME lead weekly inventory decreased by 16,600 tons to 222,700 tons, and the LME inventory has continuously declined from a high level but is still at a high level in recent years. The weekly inventory of lead on the Shanghai Futures Exchange increased by 2,107 tons to 30,111 tons. As of January 12, the total social inventory of SMM's five - place lead ingots reached 24,800 tons, and the inventory continued to rise month - on - month but was at an absolute low level in the past four years [4]. Market Outlook and Strategy - Overseas, the LME lead inventory has continuously declined from a high level, but it is still at an absolute high level, and the spot remains at a deep discount, indicating a continued oversupply situation. The import of lead ore in November increased month - on - month, but the increase was limited, and the domestic mine supply still has a gap. The operating rate of primary lead remains high; the profit of secondary lead is acceptable, but the raw material inventory has further decreased, and the later supply pressure is limited. The import window of lead ingots continues to open, and the pressure of import inflow is relatively large. - Downstream, the energy storage and automobile sectors still drive the consumption resilience, but the consumption of electric bicycles is weak. The domestic lead inventory is accumulating at a low level. Overall, although there are both production cuts and resumptions in China, the supply pressure is not large due to raw material shortages. However, the pressure of import inflow has increased, and the domestic lead supply - demand has weakened marginally. Considering the short - term low domestic inventory, the supply - demand contradiction of lead is limited, and Shanghai lead may fluctuate widely [5].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - In the short - term, the supply and demand of lead are both weak, and the low domestic inventory provides some support. The Shanghai lead price may continue to show a volatile trend. Later, as the pressure of imported lead increases and inventory is expected to stop falling and rise, the upward pressure on lead prices will gradually increase. Attention should be paid to the production dynamics of recycled lead and downstream demand [5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Changes - Processing Fees - In November 2025, China imported 110,000 tons of lead concentrate in physical quantity, a year - on - year increase of 15.8% and a month - on - month increase of 11.7%. The import volume was higher than the average in recent years. The domestic lead concentrate market demand was high in winter, and the domestic mine supply shortage continued. The domestic and foreign lead concentrate processing fees remained stable at a low level. In January, the domestic monthly processing fee was 200 - 400 yuan/ton, flat month - on - month; the imported monthly processing fee was - 160 - - 130 US dollars/dry ton, flat month - on - month. In terms of spot processing fees, the domestic weekly processing fee for lead ore was 250 - 350 yuan/ton, flat week - on - week; the imported weekly processing fee was - 160 - - 130 US dollars/dry ton, flat week - on - week [2]. 3.2 Fundamental Changes - Supply - In November, the national electrolytic lead production increased slightly, a month - on - month increase of 0.49 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 1.61 percentage points; the recycled refined lead production increased by 8.5% month - on - month and 10.13% year - on - year. Last week, the operating rate of primary lead smelters in three provinces was 67.3%, a week - on - week increase of 0.2%. Although there was still a supply gap of lead concentrate, the primary lead production resumed after maintenance, and the operating rate remained at a high level. The weekly operating rate of recycled lead in four provinces was 37.6%, a week - on - week decline of 7.8%. In winter, there were frequent haze days, and environmental protection control potentially restricted the output of recycled lead smelters. The scrapping volume of waste lead - acid batteries decreased, and the tight supply of raw materials was difficult to ease. After the holiday, the price of waste batteries increased slightly, the profit margin of recycled lead enterprises narrowed, and the uncertainty of environmental protection disturbances in winter was relatively large, so the supply of recycled lead remained at a low level. Some enterprises actively reduced production. For example, a medium - sized recycled lead smelter in the southwest region planned to reduce production by 20% - 30% in January to cope with raw material pressure. In terms of imports, the Shanghai - London price ratio improved, the import window for refined lead remained open, and the profit increased [3]. 3.3 Fundamental Changes - Consumption - Last week was a holiday, and many battery enterprises had holidays, so the operating rate of lead - acid battery enterprises weakened. The automotive battery was approaching the traditional replacement peak season, while the traditional consumption peak season of electric bicycle batteries was coming to an end. At the beginning of the implementation of the new national standard for electric bicycles, consumers were more cautious, and the production of electric bicycles declined. Coincidentally, some lead - acid battery enterprises had holidays during the New Year's Day holiday, and the weekly operating rate decreased. After the holiday, the terminal consumption was still weak. With relatively strong lead prices, downstream enterprises purchased on demand, the trading volume was relatively limited, the circulation in the spot market was average, and the discount widened slightly [4]. 3.4 Fundamental Changes - Spot - As of the week ending December 31, the domestic lead spot basis discount widened, and the lead spot basis was a discount of 75 yuan last weekend. The LME lead spot remained in a deep discount state, with a discount of - 43.42 US dollars last weekend [4]. 3.5 Fundamental Changes - Inventory - As of the week ending December 31, the LME lead weekly inventory decreased by 6,975 tons to 241,900 tons. The LME inventory had declined for two consecutive weeks from a high level but was still at a high level in recent years; the weekly inventory of lead on the Shanghai Futures Exchange increased by 909 tons to 28,004 tons. As of December 29, the total social inventory of SMM lead ingots in five regions was 17,400 tons, and the inventory rebounded month - on - month, ending three consecutive months of decline, but it was at an absolute low level in the past four years [4].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View The report anticipates that Shanghai lead will experience oscillations, but the upward potential is limited. It is recommended to adopt a strategy of short - selling on rallies [3]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the Shanghai lead main contract is 17,420 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan; the 3 - month LME lead quotation is 2,025 dollars/ton, up 3 dollars [3]. - The price difference between the 12 - 01 contracts of Shanghai lead is - 10 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan; the trading volume of Shanghai lead is 119,718 lots, up 663 lots [3]. - The net position of the top 20 in Shanghai lead is - 85 lots, down 581 lots; the warehouse receipts of Shanghai lead are 21,645 tons, unchanged [3]. - The inventory of the Shanghai Futures Exchange is 35,999 tons, down 334 tons; the LME lead inventory is 220,300 tons, down 3,875 tons [3]. 3.2 Spot Market - The spot price of 1 lead from Shanghai Nonferrous Metals Network is 17,225 yuan/ton, unchanged; the spot price of 1 lead in the Yangtze River Nonferrous Metals Market is 17,440 yuan/ton, up 60 yuan [3]. - The basis of the lead main contract is - 195 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan; the LME lead premium (0 - 3) is - 26.48 dollars/ton, up 7.51 dollars [3]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The price of 50% - 60% lead concentrate in Jiyuan is 16,796 yuan, up 125 yuan; the price of domestic recycled lead (≥98.5%) is 17,100 yuan/ton, unchanged [3]. - The capacity utilization rate of recycled lead is 35.56%, down 2.32 percentage points; the average operating rate of primary lead is 82.65%, up 1.01 percentage points [3]. - The production of recycled lead in the current month is 22.42 tons, down 6.75 tons; the production of primary lead in the current week is 3.96 tons, up 0.05 tons [3]. - The processing fee of 60% lead concentrate at major ports is - 90 dollars/kiloton, unchanged; the ILZSG lead supply - demand balance is - 2.5 kilotons, up 3.1 kilotons [3]. - The global lead ore production of ILZSG is 383.3 kilotons, up 3.4 kilotons; the lead ore import volume is 15.06 tons, up 1.58 tons [3]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The refined lead import volume is 1,507.92 tons, down 312.63 tons; the average domestic processing fee of lead concentrate at the factory is 340 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan [3]. - The refined lead export volume is 1,486.13 tons, down 1,266.09 tons; the average price of the waste battery market is 9,969.64 yuan/ton, unchanged [3]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The export volume of batteries is 45,696 units, down 3,984 units; the average price of lead - antimony alloy (for batteries, containing 2% antimony) is 19,450 yuan/ton, unchanged [3]. - The Shenwan industry index of batteries and other power sources is 2,124.23 points, up 26.19 points; the automobile production is 3.227 million vehicles, up 474,600 vehicles [3]. - The new - energy vehicle production is 1.58 million vehicles, up 247,000 vehicles [3]. 3.6 Industry News - There were reports about a possible US military attack on Venezuela, which was later denied by Trump [3]. - Multiple Fed officials oppose interest - rate cuts, while Fed理事米兰 predicts a December rate cut [3]. - The US will cancel the 10% "fentanyl tariff" on Chinese goods, and relevant Chinese counter - measures will be adjusted [3]. - The US Department of Defense approves the provision of long - range Tomahawk missiles to Ukraine, with the final decision to be made by Trump [3]. 3.7 View Summary - Supply side: Primary lead production is expected to rise slightly due to smelter overhauls. Recycled lead supply may increase but is restricted by factors such as environmental protection transportation controls and scarce waste battery sources [3]. - Demand side: After the holiday impact, the weekly operating rate of lead - acid battery enterprises has rebounded. The traditional consumption season and the expansion of some battery enterprises' businesses support lead demand, but the export of Chinese lead - acid batteries is under pressure [3]. - Inventory: Inventory has been decreasing, but with the expected increase in imported lead arrivals and potential growth in recycled lead production, inventory may change this week, and a slowdown in inventory depletion may hinder price increases [3].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - Although some primary lead smelters plan to boost annual production and sales, there are many maintenance activities from October to November, so primary lead production is expected to increase slightly. For recycled lead, smelters affected by Document 770 are gradually resuming production, but raw material inventory levels are low, and waste transportation is affected by environmental protection requirements in the north, so the increase in recycled lead production is limited, and lead ingot spot will remain tight in the short term. It is recommended to short at high prices. After the National Day and Mid - Autumn Festival holidays, the weekly operating rate of lead - acid battery enterprises has significantly rebounded, and the traditional consumption season, along with the replacement market of cars and electric bicycles, supports lead demand. Some leading battery companies have good orders and are expanding energy - storage business, which will further increase lead demand. However, since September, the Shanghai - London ratio of lead ingots has gradually widened, and the export of Chinese lead - acid batteries is under pressure due to tariffs, which will suppress demand growth to some extent. Inventory has been decreasing, but with the expected increase in imported lead arrivals and the possible increase in recycled lead production, inventory may change next week. If the inventory depletion rate slows, it will resist price increases. It is recommended to short at high prices [3] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the Shanghai lead main contract is 17,350 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan; the LME 3 - month lead quote is 2,019 dollars/ton, down 6 dollars. The spread between the December - January contracts of Shanghai lead is - 5 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan. The trading volume of Shanghai lead is 119,775 lots, down 2,688 lots. The net position of the top 20 in Shanghai lead is 496 lots, up 1,470 lots. Shanghai lead warehouse receipts are 21,645 tons, down 1,352 tons. The Shanghai Futures Exchange inventory is 36,333 tons, down 5,368 tons; the LME lead inventory is 224,875 tons, down 4,800 tons [3] 3.2 Spot Market - The spot price of 1 lead on the Shanghai Non - ferrous Metals Network is 17,200 yuan/ton, unchanged; the spot price of 1 lead in the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Metals Market is 17,290 yuan/ton, unchanged. The basis of the lead main contract is - 150 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan; the LME lead premium (0 - 3) is - 35.12 dollars/ton, up 0.42 dollars [3] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The price of lead concentrate (50% - 60%) in Jiyuan is 16,671 yuan, up 275 yuan. The price of domestic recycled lead (≥98.5%) is 17,100 yuan/ton, unchanged. The number of recycled lead production enterprises is 68, unchanged. The capacity utilization rate of recycled lead is 35.56%, down 2.32 percentage points; the monthly output of recycled lead is 22.42 tons, down 6.75 tons. The average weekly operating rate of primary lead is 82.65%, up 1.01 percentage points; the weekly output of primary lead is 3.96 tons, up 0.05 tons. The processing fee of lead concentrate (60%) at major ports is - 90 dollars/kiloton, unchanged. The global lead ore production is 383.3 kilotons, up 3.4 kilotons; the monthly lead ore import volume is 15.06 tons, up 1.58 tons [3] 3.4 Industry Situation - The monthly refined lead import volume is 1,507.92 tons, down 312.63 tons; the monthly refined lead export volume is 1,486.13 tons, down 1,266.09 tons. The average price of waste batteries in the market is 9,967.86 yuan/ton, down 23.21 yuan [3] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The monthly export volume of batteries is 45,696 units, down 3,984 units. The average price of lead - antimony alloy (for batteries, 2% antimony content) is 19,450 yuan/ton, unchanged. The monthly automobile production is 322.7 tons, up 47.46 tons; the monthly new - energy vehicle production is 158 tons, up 24.7 tons [3] 3.6 Industry News - On October 30, a large recycled lead smelter in East China started the furnace - drying operation on Monday and plans to start formal production this weekend. According to SMM analysis, after resuming production, it is expected to contribute over 10,000 tons to the recycled refined lead production in November, which will have a positive impact on market supply. The Federal Reserve announced a 25 - basis - point interest rate cut [3]

Group 1: Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Group 2: Core View - The lead price is expected to show a mainly oscillating and moderately upward trend [4][35] Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Market Review - Last week, the price of the main contract PB2509 of Shanghai lead futures showed a weak oscillating trend, ranging from around 16,615 yuan/ton to about 17,085 yuan/ton [9] - Last week, the price of LME lead futures contracts was around 1,961 - 2,037 US dollars/ton, showing an oscillating and weakening trend [13] 2. Spot Analysis - As of August 1, 2025, the average price of 1 lead in the Yangtze River non - ferrous market was 16,690 yuan/ton, a decrease of 140 yuan from the previous trading day. The spot prices in Shanghai, Guangdong, and Tianjin were 16,460 yuan/ton, 16,565 yuan/ton, and 16,480 yuan/ton respectively. The premium/discount of 1 lead was maintained at around a discount of - 150 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5 yuan/ton from the previous trading day [16] 3. Supply and Demand Situation - As of July 25, 2025, the average processing fees (factory - delivered prices) in Jiyuan, Chenzhou, and Gejiu were 400 yuan/metal ton, 300 yuan/metal ton, and 700 yuan/metal ton respectively. As of June 30, 2025, the monthly refined lead output was 660,000 tons, an increase of 11,000 tons from the previous month and a year - on - year increase of 3.1%. From a seasonal perspective, the current output is at a relatively high level compared to the past five years [22] 4. Inventory Situation - As of August 1, 2025, the refined lead inventory on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 63,283 tons, an increase of 29 tons from the previous week. As of August 1, 2025, the LME lead inventory was 275,325 tons, a decrease of 1,175 tons from the previous trading day, and the proportion of cancelled warrants was 26.73% [28] 5. Fundamental Analysis - On July 30, 2025, the Federal Reserve announced that it would keep the target range of the federal funds rate unchanged between 4.25% and 4.5%, marking the fifth consecutive "standstill" in 2025. Global lead supply and demand are basically balanced, with both lead consumption and lead supply decreasing. Global lead mine production continues to grow. Lead processing fees have changed little and remain at a low level. Lead production has maintained year - on - year growth and ended the month - on - month decline. The Shanghai lead inventory has slightly increased, and the inventory level is at a moderate level in recent years. The LME lead inventory has decreased, and the inventory level is at a high level in recent years [3][34] 6. Future Outlook - The lead price is expected to show a mainly oscillating and moderately upward trend [4][35]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View - Macroscopically, Fed Chair Powell is facing challenges. A potential resignation could cause financial market turmoil, while Fed rate - cuts would benefit the non - ferrous sector. - On the supply side, the开工 rate and output of primary lead smelters have declined due to falling lead prices. The supply of recycled lead is tight because of the limited supply of waste batteries. If the supply of waste batteries remains tight, the overall lead supply increment will be restricted. - On the demand side, the lead - acid battery industry, the main consumer of lead, is approaching the traditional peak season, but the actual spot trading is mediocre. The slow inventory reduction of dealers suppresses the enthusiasm of battery factories, and the seasonal peak effect has not appeared yet. - In terms of inventory, overseas and domestic inventories are rising, and the overall demand is slowing down. - The lead price remained in a narrow - range fluctuation, and the operation suggestion is to go long at low prices. [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main Shanghai lead futures contract was 16,890 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan; the 3 - month LME lead quotation was 2,028.5 dollars/ton, up 14 dollars. - The price difference between the 08 - 09 contracts of Shanghai lead was - 40 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan; the trading volume of Shanghai lead was 106,464 lots, up 4,398 lots. - The net position of the top 20 in Shanghai lead was - 749 lots, up 1,883 lots; the warehouse receipts of Shanghai lead were 60,259 tons, up 200 tons. - The inventory of the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 62,335 tons, up 7,186 tons; the LME lead inventory was 263,150 tons, up 650 tons. [3] 3.2 Spot Market - The spot price of 1 lead on the Shanghai Non - ferrous Metals Network was 16,700 yuan/ton, down 25 yuan; the spot price of 1 lead in the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Metals Market was 16,850 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan. - The basis of the main lead contract was - 190 yuan/ton, down 65 yuan; the LME lead premium (0 - 3) was - 25.21 dollars/ton, up 0.19 dollars. [3] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The average operating rate of primary lead was 70.84%, down 7.03 percentage points; the weekly output of primary lead was 3.32 tons, down 0.29 tons. - The processing fee of 60% lead concentrate at major ports was - 50 dollars/kiloton, unchanged; the global lead ore output was 399.7 kilotons, down 3.7 kilotons. - The domestic processing fee of lead concentrate was 540 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan. - The import volume of lead concentrate was 11.97 tons, up 2.48 tons; the import volume of refined lead was 815.37 tons, down 1,021.76 tons; the export volume of refined lead was 2,109.62 tons, up 223.33 tons. [3] 3.4 Downstream Situation - The export volume of batteries was 41.45 million pieces, down 425,000 pieces; the average price of lead - antimony alloy for batteries was 19,950 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan. - The output of automobiles was 2.8086 million, up 0.1666 million; the output of new - energy vehicles was 1.647 million, up 0.073 million. [3] 3.5 Industry News - Trump criticized Powell again, saying that the FOMC should take action, and "The Fed Whisperer" thought it impossible. - Bessent said they were not in a hurry to nominate a new Fed chair, and Trump would not fire Powell. - US House Speaker Johnson was "disappointed" with Powell, and the legal compliance of firing the Fed chair was unclear. [3]

Group 1: Report Title and Investment Rating - Report Title: "Shanghai Lead May Face Adjustment" [1] - Investment Rating: Not provided Group 2: Core View - The supply of primary and recycled lead is increasing, but the peak - season demand has not started yet. The supply - demand situation of lead is weakening marginally. With the loosening of waste battery costs, the pressure on high lead prices is increasing, and lead prices may face adjustment. Attention should be paid to the possibility of further improvement in demand later [7] Group 3: Fundamental Changes Processing Fees - In May 2025, China imported 103,900 tons of lead concentrates, a 6% month - on - month decrease. The domestic lead concentrate imports continued to decline month - on - month but remained at a moderately high level. The supply of domestic concentrates became more tense, and the processing fees of domestic and foreign lead concentrates continued to decline at a low level. In July, the domestic monthly processing fee was 400 - 700 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 50 yuan; the imported monthly processing fee was - 60 - - 30 US dollars/dry ton, a month - on - month decrease of 15 US dollars. The domestic weekly processing fee for lead ore was 400 - 700 yuan/ton, remaining flat week - on - week; the imported weekly processing fee was - 70 - - 40 US dollars/dry ton, also remaining flat week - on - week [3] Supply - In May 2025, the electrolytic lead output was 331,200 tons, a 3.53% month - on - month increase and a 14.7% year - on - year increase. In June (regular maintenance season), most enterprises planned to start maintenance after mid - June, and the reduction was obvious in late June. The output of recycled refined lead in May was 223,500 tons, significantly lower than expected, a 36.4% month - on - month decrease and a 16.5% year - on - year decrease. In June, the price of waste batteries rebounded, but the profit of recycled lead enterprises did not improve, and the scale of production reduction of recycled lead was still large. Last week, the operating rate of primary lead in three provinces decreased by 3.78 percentage points to 66.21% week - on - week. In July, some primary lead enterprises resumed production after maintenance, and the operating rate rebounded significantly this week. Last week, the weekly operating rate of recycled lead in four provinces was 34.62%, a 4.96 - percentage - point decrease week - on - week. Last week, the price of waste batteries increased with the rising lead price, and the profit of recycled lead improved. This week, the price of waste batteries fluctuated slightly downward, and the profit of recycled lead continued to recover. Some recycled lead enterprises were more willing to resume production, and the supply of recycled lead was expected to gradually increase. Recently, the internal - external price ratio fluctuated at a low level, and the lead ingot import window remained closed [4] Consumption - Last week, the weekly comprehensive operating rate of lead - acid battery enterprises in five provinces decreased week - on - week. At the end of the year, many large enterprises closed their accounts and reduced or stopped production. The willingness of dealers to take delivery was average during the week. Battery factories actively reduced prices to destock, but the effect was not good. The operating rate of large lead - acid battery enterprises was 63%, slightly lower than the previous week. The inventory of finished batteries was 30 days, and the inventory of raw material lead ingots was 4 days. The operating rate of small and medium - sized battery factories was 60 - 65%, the inventory of finished batteries was 21 days, and the raw material inventory was 4 days. This week, the rainy season ended in many places, and battery enterprises that reduced production at the end of the year resumed production. However, it was currently in the transition period between the off - season and the peak - season, and the peak - season demand had not started yet. Market dealers reported that orders were poor and the willingness to replenish inventory was low [5] Spot and Inventory - As of the week ending June 27, the premium of the domestic lead spot to the active month's contract decreased, and the premium was 35 yuan at the weekend. The discount of the LME lead spot narrowed slightly, and the discount was 22.14 US dollars at the end of last week. As of the week ending June 27, the weekly inventory of LME lead decreased by 10,650 tons to 273,400 tons. Although the inventory decreased significantly from a high level, it was still at an absolute high level in the past five years. The weekly inventory of SHFE lead increased by 638 tons to 51,900 tons. As of June 30, the domestic social inventory was 52,300 tons, and the inventory was gradually accumulating. Currently, the social inventory was at a moderately low level [6] Group 4: Market Outlook and Strategy - Last week, the LME lead inventory decreased significantly from a high level but remained at an absolute high level in the past five years. The spot discount narrowed slightly, and the supply - demand of overseas lead remained relatively loose. In May, the import volume of lead concentrates continued to decline month - on - month but was still higher than the same period in previous years. The monthly processing fees of domestic and foreign lead ores further declined at a low level, and the expectation of tight supply of lead concentrates intensified. In July, many primary lead enterprises resumed production after maintenance. The price of waste batteries loosened, the profit of recycled lead enterprises was recovering, and the willingness of recycled lead enterprises to resume production was high. It was expected that the short - term tight supply situation of lead would ease. This week, the rainy season ended in many places, and battery enterprises that reduced production at the end of the year resumed production. However, it was currently in the transition period between the off - season and the peak - season, and the peak - season demand had not started yet. Market dealers reported that orders were poor and the willingness to replenish inventory was low, and the spot was quoted at a discount. Overall, the supply of primary and recycled lead increased, the peak - season demand had not started yet, the supply - demand situation of lead weakened marginally, and with the loosening of waste battery costs, the pressure on high lead prices increased, and lead prices may face adjustment. Attention should be paid to the possibility of further improvement in demand later [7]

Group 1: Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The lead price is currently in a short - term upward trend, driven by improved macro - sentiment and expectations of consumption improvement. However, the recovery of secondary lead smelter profits increases the expectation of resuming production, which is not conducive to the lead price. The lead price is expected to be volatile and slightly stronger in the short term, and there is a risk of price retracement when the positive sentiment fades [3][6][8]. Group 3: Summary by Sections 1. Transaction Data - From June 20th to June 27th, the SHFE lead price rose from 16,810 yuan/ton to 17,125 yuan/ton, an increase of 315 yuan/ton; the LME lead price rose from 1,995 dollars/ton to 2,041.5 dollars/ton, an increase of 46.5 dollars/ton. The Shanghai - London ratio decreased from 8.43 to 8.39. The SHFE inventory increased by 638 tons to 51,929 tons, while the LME inventory decreased by 10,650 tons to 273,425 tons. The social inventory increased by 0.03 million tons to 5.6 million tons, and the spot premium decreased by 10 yuan/ton to - 170 yuan/ton [4]. 2. Market Review - Last week, the main contract of SHFE lead switched to PB2508, breaking through the 17,000 - yuan integer mark and rising strongly, with a weekly increase of 1.87%. The LME lead price also broke through the shock range, with a weekly increase of 2.33%. In the spot market, after the SHFE lead price rose and then fell, holders maintained a discount for sales, and the supply of secondary refined lead increased with an expanded discount, resulting in sluggish trading in the electrolytic lead market [5]. 3. Industry News - In July, the average domestic and imported lead concentrate processing fees were 550 yuan/metal ton and - 45 dollars/dry ton respectively, down 50 yuan/metal ton and - 15 dollars/dry ton month - on - month [8]. 4. Related Charts - The report provides multiple charts, including SHFE and LME lead prices, Shanghai - London ratio, inventory, lead ingot premium, price difference between primary and secondary lead, waste battery price, secondary lead enterprise profit, lead concentrate processing fee, primary and secondary lead production, lead ingot social inventory, and refined lead import profit and loss [10][11][13][15][17][21].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoint The overall supply of Shanghai lead has declined, which provides some support for prices. However, the price of Shanghai lead continues to decline under the influence of weakening demand. Affected by the diminishing marginal effect of national subsidies, domestic inventories have increased slightly, while overseas inventories remain high, putting significant pressure on lead prices. Technically, it is currently in a consolidation structure, and it is expected to continue consolidating for some time. It is recommended to go short on rallies [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the Shanghai lead main contract was 16,845 yuan/ton, a decrease of 35 yuan; the LME 3 - month lead quotation was 1,988 US dollars/ton, an increase of 14 US dollars [2]. - The price difference between the 07 - 08 month contracts of Shanghai lead was 5 yuan/ton, an increase of 10 yuan; the trading volume of Shanghai lead was 80,384 lots, a decrease of 6,808 lots [2]. - The net position of the top 20 in Shanghai lead was - 1,179 lots, a decrease of 2,189 lots; the Shanghai lead warehouse receipts were 42,198 tons, an increase of 399 tons [2]. - The inventory of the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 47,936 tons, an increase of 1,436 tons; the LME lead inventory was 279,975 tons, a decrease of 1,300 tons [2]. 现货市场 - The spot price of 1 lead on the Shanghai Non - ferrous Metals Network was 16,625 yuan/ton, unchanged; the spot price of 1 lead in the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Metals Market was 16,830 yuan/ton, an increase of 110 yuan [2]. - The basis of the lead main contract was - 220 yuan/ton, an increase of 35 yuan; the LME lead premium (0 - 3) was - 27.95 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 0.97 US dollars [2]. - The price of lead concentrate (50% - 60%) in Jiyuan was 15,796 yuan, an increase of 92 yuan; the price of domestic recycled lead (≥98.5%) was 16,570 yuan/ton, an increase of 60 yuan [2]. Upstream Situation - The WBMS supply - demand balance of lead was - 18,700 tons, an increase of 7,100 tons; the number of recycled lead production enterprises was 68, unchanged [2]. - The capacity utilization rate of recycled lead was 51.28%, a decrease of 3.13 percentage points; the monthly output of recycled lead was 224,200 tons, a decrease of 67,500 tons [2]. - The average weekly operating rate of primary lead was 70.88%, an increase of 0.31 percentage points; the weekly output of primary lead was 35,000 tons, an increase of 11,000 tons [2]. - The processing fee of lead concentrate (60%) at major ports was - 30 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the ILZSG lead supply - demand balance was 16,400 tons, an increase of 48,800 tons [2]. - The global lead ore output was 399,700 tons, a decrease of 3,700 tons; the monthly lead ore import volume was 119,700 tons, an increase of 24,800 tons [2]. Industry Situation - The monthly refined lead import volume was 815.37 tons, a decrease of 1,021.76 tons; the average domestic processing fee of lead concentrate to the factory was 720 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - The monthly refined lead export volume was 2,109.62 tons, an increase of 223.33 tons; the average price of waste batteries in the market was 10,073.21 yuan/ton, an increase of 23.21 yuan [2]. 下游情况 - The monthly export volume of batteries was 41,450,000, a decrease of 425,000; the average price of lead - antimony alloy (for batteries, containing 2% antimony) was 20,200 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - The Shenwan industry index of batteries was 1,690.34 points, a decrease of 4.16 points; the monthly automobile output was 2.604 million, a decrease of 440,600 [2]. - The monthly new energy vehicle output was 1.647 million, an increase of 73,000 [2]. 行业消息 - India and the US are expected to reach a temporary trade agreement by the end of the month, and the US and Mexico are close to reaching an agreement on steel import tariffs [2]. - Trump said the Los Angeles riot was a "foreign invasion", and a US judge rejected California's request to immediately stop the Trump administration from sending troops to the state [2]. - The White House denied that Treasury Secretary Bessent was the candidate for the next Fed chairman [2]. - The EU's 18th round of sanctions against Russia proposed to lower the price cap of Russian oil to 45 US dollars, and Putin announced the extension of counter - measures [2]. - The Russian ambassador to the US said that a new round of Russia - US talks will be held in Moscow soon [2]. - Five countries including the UK announced sanctions against two far - right Israeli ministers [2]. - The UK's employment in May had the largest decline since 2020, and traders fully priced in two more interest rate cuts by the Bank of England this year [2].