1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report The lead price is expected to remain in a low - level oscillation. Although the losses of secondary lead enterprises and their delayed resumption of production support the lead price, downstream demand is weak, and the pressure of imported lead inflow persists [5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Fundamental Changes - **Processing Fees**: In February 2026, the import volume of lead concentrate was about 128,400 tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.78% and a year - on - year increase of 26.4%. The import volume in the first two months of this year increased significantly year - on - year. Domestic and foreign lead concentrate processing fees remained stable. The domestic monthly processing fee in March was 200 - 300 yuan/ton, with no month - on - month change; the imported monthly processing fee was - 160--140 US dollars/dry ton, also with no month - on - month change. The domestic weekly processing fee for lead ore was 200 - 300 yuan/ton, with no week - on - week change; the imported weekly processing fee was - 150--120 US dollars/dry ton, a week - on - week decrease of 10 US dollars/dry ton [2]. - **Supply**: In February 2026, the domestic electrolytic lead output was 283,700 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 17.07% and a year - on - year decrease of 1.21%. The output of secondary refined lead was 154,700 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 45.18% and a year - on - year decrease of 11.36%. In March, primary lead entered the centralized resumption period. As of the week of March 20, the average operating rate of primary lead smelters in three provinces was 62.59%, a week - on - week increase of 1.52%. The weekly operating rate of secondary lead in four provinces was 39.57%, a week - on - week increase of 10.42%. The price of waste batteries is firm, and the losses of secondary lead enterprises have expanded, with possible production cuts and delayed resumption of production. The Shanghai - London price ratio has risen, and refined lead imports are in a continuous profitable state, with overseas lead surplus pressure flowing into the domestic market [3]. - **Consumption**: The weekly comprehensive operating rate of lead - acid battery enterprises in five provinces last week was 73.92%, a week - on - week increase of 0.46%. The production of lead - acid battery enterprises is relatively stable. The terminal consumption of electric bicycles and automobile battery markets is mediocre. Currently, the lead price is adjusted at a low level, and battery enterprises replenish inventory at low prices, alleviating the domestic lead inventory pressure. However, the downstream purchasing enthusiasm is still general, and most purchases are for rigid needs. Considering the consumption off - season in April, it is expected that the domestic lead ingot social inventory will stop falling and start to rise in mid - to - late April [4]. - **Spot**: As of the week of March 20, the domestic lead spot basis premium increased, and the weekend lead spot basis was a premium of 165 yuan. The LME lead spot remained in a deep discount, with a weekend discount of - 39.51 US dollars [4]. - **Inventory**: As of the week of March 20, the LME lead weekly inventory decreased by 400 tons to 284,100 tons, with the LME inventory oscillating at a high level, at an absolute high in the past five years; the weekly inventory of lead on the Shanghai Futures Exchange decreased by 9,939 tons to 66,100 tons. As of March 23, the domestic lead ingot social inventory was 63,100 tons, a month - on - month decline, at a moderately high level [4]. Market Outlook and Strategy - Overseas lead supply is loose, with high - level oscillation of LME lead inventory and deep spot discounts. Overseas mine supply is gradually recovering, but the release period is mainly in the second half of the year. Although the import volume of lead ore has increased significantly year - on - year, the recovery of domestic lead ore supply is still limited, and the domestic lead ore supply shortage has not improved, with processing fees remaining at a low level. Primary lead enterprises have high production enthusiasm, and the operating rate of primary lead has steadily recovered. Currently, the price of waste batteries is firm, secondary lead enterprises have large losses, and although the operating rate has increased month - on - month, the resumption of production of some enterprises has been delayed. The Shanghai - London price ratio has risen, and the domestic import profit has expanded, with overseas lead surplus pressure shifting to the domestic market. - Currently, the lead price is adjusted at a low level, and battery enterprises replenish inventory at low prices, alleviating the domestic lead inventory pressure. However, the downstream purchasing enthusiasm is still general, and most purchases are for rigid needs. The second quarter is the off - season for lead consumption, demand will weaken month - on - month, and inventory may rise again. - Overall, the large losses of secondary lead enterprises, their delayed resumption of production, and production cuts support the lead price. However, downstream demand is general, and under the pressure of imported inflows, the low - level oscillation of lead is difficult to change. Later, attention should be paid to the resumption of production of secondary lead and the domestic inventory situation [5].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The lead price is under pressure and continues to be weak due to limited improvement in downstream demand, high domestic inventories, and imports. However, the expanding losses and slow resumption of production in the secondary lead sector provide some support to the lead price. Attention should be paid to the resumption of secondary lead production and the progress after secondary lead is included in the delivery system [5]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Changes - **Processing Fees**: In December 2025, the import volume of lead concentrates was about 149,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 35.8% and a year - on - year increase of 24.63%. The domestic lead concentrate market is in high demand in winter, and the tight supply situation continues. The domestic and foreign lead concentrate processing fees have further declined at low levels. In March, the domestic monthly processing fee was 200 - 300 yuan/ton, and the import monthly processing fee was - 160 - - 140 US dollars/dry ton, both remaining unchanged month - on - month. The weekly domestic lead ore processing fee was 200 - 300 yuan/ton, and the import weekly processing fee was - 160 - - 130 US dollars/dry ton, both remaining unchanged week - on - week [2]. 3.2 Supply - **Primary Lead**: In February 2026, the domestic electrolytic lead production was 283,700 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 17.07% and a year - on - year decrease of 1.21%. In March, primary lead entered the centralized resumption period. As of the week of March 13, the average operating rate of primary lead smelters in three provinces increased by 4.11 percentage points to 56.97% week - on - week, and the supply continued to increase slightly. The by - product silver price is at a high level, and the smelting profit is considerable, so the production enthusiasm of primary lead enterprises is high [3]. - **Secondary Lead**: In February 2026, the production of secondary refined lead was 154,700 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 45.18% and a year - on - year decrease of 11.36%. Affected by losses and environmental protection, the resumption of production is far below expectations. The weekly operating rate of SMM is only 29.15%, a week - on - week increase of 2.03%. Although large - scale smelters in Shandong and Jiangxi are expected to increase production this week, the high price of waste batteries and the low price of secondary lead have led to serious losses for secondary lead enterprises, and the situation of active production reduction and postponed resumption of production has increased. Starting from March 17, secondary lead will be officially included in the delivery system as an alternative delivery product, with a discount of 150 yuan/ton to the standard product. The pricing logic of Shanghai lead has changed to a dual - track pricing of primary and secondary lead, reducing the risk of cornering the market and putting pressure on the overall valuation of the market [3]. - **Imports**: The Shanghai - London price ratio has rebounded, and the import of refined lead has been in a state of continuous profit. The overseas lead surplus pressure has flowed into the domestic market [3]. 3.3 Consumption - **Battery Enterprises**: Last week, the weekly comprehensive operating rate of lead - acid battery enterprises in five provinces was 73.45%, a week - on - week increase of 1.78%. In March, major lead - acid battery enterprises have basically resumed normal production. The orders of electric bicycle and automobile battery enterprises mainly come from the post - Spring Festival replenishment of dealers, but the actual consumption improvement in the terminal market is limited. Dealers are not enthusiastic about purchasing, resulting in slow sales of new batteries and high inventory digestion pressure. Battery factories generally accumulate finished product inventories to a high level of 25 - 30 days. Battery factories are extremely cautious in purchasing lead ingots, and most enterprises only maintain a raw material inventory of 4 - 5 days, mainly using the "long - term order pick - up" or "on - demand replenishment" procurement model, and the spot transactions are extremely light [4]. 3.4 Spot and Inventory - **Spot**: As of the week of March 13, the domestic lead spot basis had a small premium, with a weekend premium of 95 yuan. The LME lead spot maintained a deep discount, with a weekend discount of - 47.55 US dollars [4]. - **Inventory**: As of the week of March 13, the LME lead weekly inventory decreased by 1,400 tons to 284,500 tons, and the LME inventory fluctuated at a high level, at an absolute high in the past five years. The weekly inventory of lead on the Shanghai Futures Exchange increased by 9,220 tons to 76,000 tons. As of March 12, the domestic social inventory of lead ingots was 77,700 tons, continuing to rise month - on - month and at an absolute high level in the past four years [4].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The supply of lead ingots is increasing, with the apparent supply of domestic lead ingots reaching 72.39 million tons in November 2025, a year - on - year increase of 9.9%. The downstream battery enterprise operating rate is marginally warming up, but the social inventory of lead ingots is marginally accumulating. Currently, the lead price is near the upper edge of the long - term oscillation range, and the contradiction between long and short positions of macro funds and industrial seat funds is intensifying. Although the non - ferrous sector is still regarded as bullish in the double - loose cycle, the subsequent trend of leading varieties in the sector and the Shanghai - London ratio need to be observed [11] Summary by Directory 1. Weekly Assessment - **Price Review**: On Friday, the Shanghai Lead Index closed down 0.37% at 17,473 yuan/ton, with a total unilateral trading position of 122,500 lots. The LME 3S lead price fell 8 to $2,075/ton, with a total position of 174,800 lots. The average price of SMM 1 lead ingots was 17,300 yuan/ton, and the average price of recycled refined lead was 17,100 yuan/ton, with a refined - scrap price difference of 200 yuan/ton [11] - **Domestic Structure**: The SHFE lead ingot futures inventory was 27,300 tons, and the social inventory of lead ingots in major domestic markets was 27,400 tons, an increase of 2,600 tons from January 12. The domestic primary basis was - 175 yuan/ton, and the spread between continuous contracts and the first - month contract was - 60 yuan/ton [11] - **Overseas Structure**: The LME lead ingot inventory was 211,400 tons, and the LME lead ingot cancelled warrants were 48,700 tons. The overseas cash - 3S contract basis was - $43.58/ton, and the 3 - 15 spread was - $107.3/ton [11] - **Cross - Market Structure**: The ex - exchange Shanghai - London ratio was 1.215, and the import profit and loss of lead ingots was 192.55 yuan/ton [11] - **Industry Data**: At the primary end, the port inventory of lead concentrates was 46,000 tons, and the factory inventory was 483,000 tons, equivalent to 33.6 days. The import TC of lead concentrates was - $145/dry ton, and the domestic TC was 300 yuan/metal ton. The primary operating rate was 67.04%, and the primary ingot factory inventory was 24,000 tons. At the recycled end, the recycled lead scrap inventory was 93,000 tons, the weekly production of recycled lead ingots was 46,000 tons, and the recycled ingot factory inventory was 23,000 tons. The demand - side lead - acid battery operating rate was 70.77% [11] 2. Primary Supply - **Imports**: In November 2025, the net import of lead concentrates was 109,800 physical tons, a year - on - year increase of 15.7% and a month - on - month increase of 11.7%. From January to November, the cumulative net import of lead concentrates was 1,278,500 physical tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 14.3%. The net import of silver concentrates in November was 180,900 physical tons, a year - on - year increase of 26.5% and a month - on - month increase of 21.1%. From January to November, the cumulative net import of silver concentrates was 1,686,600 physical tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 7.2% [15] - **Production**: In December 2025, China's lead concentrate production was 126,300 metal tons, a year - on - year increase of 4.04% and a month - on - month decrease of 7.54%. From January to December, the total production of lead concentrates was 1,658,200 metal tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 9.89% [17] - **Total Supply**: In November 2025, the total supply of lead concentrates in China was 274,900 metal tons, a year - on - year increase of 10.09% and a month - on - month increase of 3.75%. From January to November, the cumulative supply of lead concentrates was 2,973,600 metal tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 10.62% [19] - **Inventory and Processing Fees**: The port inventory of lead concentrates was 46,000 tons, and the factory inventory was 483,000 tons, equivalent to 33.6 days. The import TC of lead concentrates was - $145/dry ton, and the domestic TC was 300 yuan/metal ton [21][23] - **Smelting Operating Rate and Output**: The primary operating rate was 67.04%, and the primary ingot factory inventory was 24,000 tons. In December 2025, China's primary lead production was 332,700 tons, a year - on - year and month - on - month increase of 1.56%. From January to December, the total production of primary lead ingots was 3,847,200 tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 6.32% [26] 3. Recycled Supply - **Raw Materials and Weekly Production**: The recycled lead scrap inventory was 93,000 tons. The weekly production of recycled lead ingots was 46,000 tons, and the recycled ingot factory inventory was 23,000 tons. In December 2025, China's recycled lead production was 354,500 tons, a year - on - year increase of 10.3% and a month - on - month decrease of 5.04%. From January to December, the total production of recycled lead ingots was 3,962,900 tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 4.52% [31][33] - **Imports and Total Supply**: In November 2025, the net export of lead ingots was - 23,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 262.0% and a month - on - month increase of 52.6%. From January to November, the cumulative net export of lead ingots was - 118,200 tons, a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 32.4%. The total domestic supply of lead ingots in November was 723,900 tons, a year - on - year increase of 9.9% and a month - on - month increase of 5.3%. From January to November, the cumulative domestic supply of lead ingots was 7,241,100 tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 4.4% [35] 4. Demand Analysis - **Battery Operating Rate and Apparent Demand**: The demand - side lead - acid battery operating rate was 70.77%. In November 2025, the apparent demand for domestic lead ingots was 680,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.9% and a month - on - month decrease of 1.4%. From January to November, the cumulative apparent demand for domestic lead ingots was 7,206,400 tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 3.6% [38] - **Battery Exports**: In November 2025, the net export volume of batteries was 1,530,070 units, a year - on - year decrease of 22.0% and a month - on - month decrease of 5.23%. From January to November, the total net lead - containing export of batteries was 19,680,580 units, and the cumulative net lead - containing export of batteries decreased by 10.47% year - on - year [41] - **Inventory Days**: In December 2025, the finished - product inventory days of lead - acid batteries in factories increased from 20.9 days to 21.5 days, and the inventory days of lead - acid batteries in dealers increased from 40.7 days to 43.6 days [43] - **Terminal Demand**: In the two - wheeled vehicle sector, although the production decline of electric bicycles directly affected the new - installation demand, the continuous growth of delivery scenarios such as express delivery and takeout improved the new - installation consumption of electric two - and three - wheeled vehicles. In the automotive sector, the contribution of lead demand is expected to maintain stable growth. Although new - energy vehicles are gradually replacing lead - acid batteries, the high stock of existing vehicles still provides support for lead consumption. In the base - station sector, the increasing number of communication base stations and 5G base stations has steadily increased the demand for lead - acid batteries [47][49][52] 5. Supply - Demand Inventory - **Domestic Supply - Demand Balance**: In November 2025, the domestic lead ingot supply - demand difference showed a surplus of 700 tons. From January to November, the cumulative domestic lead ingot supply - demand difference showed a shortage of - 8,400 tons [61] - **Overseas Supply - Demand Balance**: In October 2025, the overseas refined lead supply - demand difference showed a surplus of 5,400 tons. From January to October, the cumulative overseas refined lead supply - demand difference showed a surplus of 98,400 tons [64] 6. Price Outlook - **Domestic Structure**: The SHFE lead ingot futures inventory was 27,300 tons, and the social inventory of lead ingots in major domestic markets was 27,400 tons, an increase of 2,600 tons from January 12. The domestic primary basis was - 175 yuan/ton, and the spread between continuous contracts and the first - month contract was - 60 yuan/ton [69] - **Overseas Structure**: The LME lead ingot inventory was 211,400 tons, and the LME lead ingot cancelled warrants were 48,700 tons. The overseas cash - 3S contract basis was - $43.58/ton, and the 3 - 15 spread was - $107.3/ton [71] - **Cross - Market Structure**: The ex - exchange Shanghai - London ratio was 1.215, and the import profit and loss of lead ingots was 192.55 yuan/ton [74] - **Position Analysis**: The net long position of the top 20 in Shanghai lead decreased, the investment fund in LME lead turned net long, and the net short position of commercial enterprises increased. The contradiction between speculative funds and industrial funds in terms of positions intensified [77]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The supply - demand contradiction of lead in China is limited, and Shanghai lead may fluctuate widely. In the medium term, attention should be paid to the production dynamics of secondary lead, downstream demand, and domestic inventory changes [5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Fundamental Changes - **Processing Fees**: In November 2025, China imported 110,000 tons of lead concentrate in physical quantity, a year - on - year increase of 15.8% and a month - on - month increase of 11.7%. The domestic lead concentrate market demand is high in winter, and the domestic mine supply shortage continues. The domestic and overseas lead concentrate processing fees remain stable at a low level. The domestic monthly processing fee in January is 200 - 400 yuan/ton, and the import monthly processing fee is - 160--130 US dollars/dry ton, both unchanged month - on - month. The domestic weekly processing fee for lead ore is 250 - 350 yuan/ton, and the import weekly processing fee is - 160--130 US dollars/dry ton, also unchanged week - on - week [2]. - **Supply** - **Primary Lead**: In December 2025, the primary lead output was 332,700 tons, a month - on - month and year - on - year increase of 1.56%. The weekly operating rate of SMM's three - province primary lead smelters last week was 66.60%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.66%. Some smelters in Hunan, Yunnan, South China, and East China have production fluctuations, maintenance, or delayed resumption of production [3]. - **Secondary Lead**: In December 2025, the secondary refined lead output was 268,400 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 9.35% and a year - on - year increase of 0.83%. The weekly operating rate of SMM's four - province secondary lead last week was 49.01%, a week - on - week increase of 11.42%. After the environmental protection control was lifted, the production of secondary lead enterprises in Anhui gradually resumed. Some enterprises in Henan increased or decreased production due to different reasons. Some large smelters in Inner Mongolia expressed the intention to stop production. The raw material inventory of secondary lead enterprises has further declined, and the later supply release pressure is still limited. The import window of refined lead continues to open, and the profit has increased [3]. - **Consumption** - The weekly comprehensive operating rate of SMM's five - province lead - acid battery enterprises last week was 65.65%, a week - on - week increase of 0.95%. After the holiday factor is eliminated, the production of lead - acid battery enterprises will continue to recover. The operating rate of large battery enterprises is 70 - 80%, and that of small and medium - sized battery enterprises is about 70%. The finished battery inventory is generally more than 22 days. The energy storage and automobile sectors drive the consumption resilience, but the sales of new - standard electric two - wheeled vehicles are poor, and some enterprises' orders have shrunk [4]. - As of the week of January 9, the domestic lead spot basis fluctuated, and the lead spot basis was at a discount of 15 yuan at the end of last week. The LME lead spot continued to be at a deep discount, with a discount of - 44.05 US dollars at the end of last week [4]. - **Inventory** - As of the week of January 9, the LME lead weekly inventory decreased by 16,600 tons to 222,700 tons, and the LME inventory has continuously declined from a high level but is still at a high level in recent years. The weekly inventory of lead on the Shanghai Futures Exchange increased by 2,107 tons to 30,111 tons. As of January 12, the total social inventory of SMM's five - place lead ingots reached 24,800 tons, and the inventory continued to rise month - on - month but was at an absolute low level in the past four years [4]. Market Outlook and Strategy - Overseas, the LME lead inventory has continuously declined from a high level, but it is still at an absolute high level, and the spot remains at a deep discount, indicating a continued oversupply situation. The import of lead ore in November increased month - on - month, but the increase was limited, and the domestic mine supply still has a gap. The operating rate of primary lead remains high; the profit of secondary lead is acceptable, but the raw material inventory has further decreased, and the later supply pressure is limited. The import window of lead ingots continues to open, and the pressure of import inflow is relatively large. - Downstream, the energy storage and automobile sectors still drive the consumption resilience, but the consumption of electric bicycles is weak. The domestic lead inventory is accumulating at a low level. Overall, although there are both production cuts and resumptions in China, the supply pressure is not large due to raw material shortages. However, the pressure of import inflow has increased, and the domestic lead supply - demand has weakened marginally. Considering the short - term low domestic inventory, the supply - demand contradiction of lead is limited, and Shanghai lead may fluctuate widely [5].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - In the short - term, the supply and demand of lead are both weak, and the low domestic inventory provides some support. The Shanghai lead price may continue to show a volatile trend. Later, as the pressure of imported lead increases and inventory is expected to stop falling and rise, the upward pressure on lead prices will gradually increase. Attention should be paid to the production dynamics of recycled lead and downstream demand [5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Changes - Processing Fees - In November 2025, China imported 110,000 tons of lead concentrate in physical quantity, a year - on - year increase of 15.8% and a month - on - month increase of 11.7%. The import volume was higher than the average in recent years. The domestic lead concentrate market demand was high in winter, and the domestic mine supply shortage continued. The domestic and foreign lead concentrate processing fees remained stable at a low level. In January, the domestic monthly processing fee was 200 - 400 yuan/ton, flat month - on - month; the imported monthly processing fee was - 160 - - 130 US dollars/dry ton, flat month - on - month. In terms of spot processing fees, the domestic weekly processing fee for lead ore was 250 - 350 yuan/ton, flat week - on - week; the imported weekly processing fee was - 160 - - 130 US dollars/dry ton, flat week - on - week [2]. 3.2 Fundamental Changes - Supply - In November, the national electrolytic lead production increased slightly, a month - on - month increase of 0.49 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 1.61 percentage points; the recycled refined lead production increased by 8.5% month - on - month and 10.13% year - on - year. Last week, the operating rate of primary lead smelters in three provinces was 67.3%, a week - on - week increase of 0.2%. Although there was still a supply gap of lead concentrate, the primary lead production resumed after maintenance, and the operating rate remained at a high level. The weekly operating rate of recycled lead in four provinces was 37.6%, a week - on - week decline of 7.8%. In winter, there were frequent haze days, and environmental protection control potentially restricted the output of recycled lead smelters. The scrapping volume of waste lead - acid batteries decreased, and the tight supply of raw materials was difficult to ease. After the holiday, the price of waste batteries increased slightly, the profit margin of recycled lead enterprises narrowed, and the uncertainty of environmental protection disturbances in winter was relatively large, so the supply of recycled lead remained at a low level. Some enterprises actively reduced production. For example, a medium - sized recycled lead smelter in the southwest region planned to reduce production by 20% - 30% in January to cope with raw material pressure. In terms of imports, the Shanghai - London price ratio improved, the import window for refined lead remained open, and the profit increased [3]. 3.3 Fundamental Changes - Consumption - Last week was a holiday, and many battery enterprises had holidays, so the operating rate of lead - acid battery enterprises weakened. The automotive battery was approaching the traditional replacement peak season, while the traditional consumption peak season of electric bicycle batteries was coming to an end. At the beginning of the implementation of the new national standard for electric bicycles, consumers were more cautious, and the production of electric bicycles declined. Coincidentally, some lead - acid battery enterprises had holidays during the New Year's Day holiday, and the weekly operating rate decreased. After the holiday, the terminal consumption was still weak. With relatively strong lead prices, downstream enterprises purchased on demand, the trading volume was relatively limited, the circulation in the spot market was average, and the discount widened slightly [4]. 3.4 Fundamental Changes - Spot - As of the week ending December 31, the domestic lead spot basis discount widened, and the lead spot basis was a discount of 75 yuan last weekend. The LME lead spot remained in a deep discount state, with a discount of - 43.42 US dollars last weekend [4]. 3.5 Fundamental Changes - Inventory - As of the week ending December 31, the LME lead weekly inventory decreased by 6,975 tons to 241,900 tons. The LME inventory had declined for two consecutive weeks from a high level but was still at a high level in recent years; the weekly inventory of lead on the Shanghai Futures Exchange increased by 909 tons to 28,004 tons. As of December 29, the total social inventory of SMM lead ingots in five regions was 17,400 tons, and the inventory rebounded month - on - month, ending three consecutive months of decline, but it was at an absolute low level in the past four years [4].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View The report anticipates that Shanghai lead will experience oscillations, but the upward potential is limited. It is recommended to adopt a strategy of short - selling on rallies [3]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the Shanghai lead main contract is 17,420 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan; the 3 - month LME lead quotation is 2,025 dollars/ton, up 3 dollars [3]. - The price difference between the 12 - 01 contracts of Shanghai lead is - 10 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan; the trading volume of Shanghai lead is 119,718 lots, up 663 lots [3]. - The net position of the top 20 in Shanghai lead is - 85 lots, down 581 lots; the warehouse receipts of Shanghai lead are 21,645 tons, unchanged [3]. - The inventory of the Shanghai Futures Exchange is 35,999 tons, down 334 tons; the LME lead inventory is 220,300 tons, down 3,875 tons [3]. 3.2 Spot Market - The spot price of 1 lead from Shanghai Nonferrous Metals Network is 17,225 yuan/ton, unchanged; the spot price of 1 lead in the Yangtze River Nonferrous Metals Market is 17,440 yuan/ton, up 60 yuan [3]. - The basis of the lead main contract is - 195 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan; the LME lead premium (0 - 3) is - 26.48 dollars/ton, up 7.51 dollars [3]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The price of 50% - 60% lead concentrate in Jiyuan is 16,796 yuan, up 125 yuan; the price of domestic recycled lead (≥98.5%) is 17,100 yuan/ton, unchanged [3]. - The capacity utilization rate of recycled lead is 35.56%, down 2.32 percentage points; the average operating rate of primary lead is 82.65%, up 1.01 percentage points [3]. - The production of recycled lead in the current month is 22.42 tons, down 6.75 tons; the production of primary lead in the current week is 3.96 tons, up 0.05 tons [3]. - The processing fee of 60% lead concentrate at major ports is - 90 dollars/kiloton, unchanged; the ILZSG lead supply - demand balance is - 2.5 kilotons, up 3.1 kilotons [3]. - The global lead ore production of ILZSG is 383.3 kilotons, up 3.4 kilotons; the lead ore import volume is 15.06 tons, up 1.58 tons [3]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The refined lead import volume is 1,507.92 tons, down 312.63 tons; the average domestic processing fee of lead concentrate at the factory is 340 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan [3]. - The refined lead export volume is 1,486.13 tons, down 1,266.09 tons; the average price of the waste battery market is 9,969.64 yuan/ton, unchanged [3]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The export volume of batteries is 45,696 units, down 3,984 units; the average price of lead - antimony alloy (for batteries, containing 2% antimony) is 19,450 yuan/ton, unchanged [3]. - The Shenwan industry index of batteries and other power sources is 2,124.23 points, up 26.19 points; the automobile production is 3.227 million vehicles, up 474,600 vehicles [3]. - The new - energy vehicle production is 1.58 million vehicles, up 247,000 vehicles [3]. 3.6 Industry News - There were reports about a possible US military attack on Venezuela, which was later denied by Trump [3]. - Multiple Fed officials oppose interest - rate cuts, while Fed理事米兰 predicts a December rate cut [3]. - The US will cancel the 10% "fentanyl tariff" on Chinese goods, and relevant Chinese counter - measures will be adjusted [3]. - The US Department of Defense approves the provision of long - range Tomahawk missiles to Ukraine, with the final decision to be made by Trump [3]. 3.7 View Summary - Supply side: Primary lead production is expected to rise slightly due to smelter overhauls. Recycled lead supply may increase but is restricted by factors such as environmental protection transportation controls and scarce waste battery sources [3]. - Demand side: After the holiday impact, the weekly operating rate of lead - acid battery enterprises has rebounded. The traditional consumption season and the expansion of some battery enterprises' businesses support lead demand, but the export of Chinese lead - acid batteries is under pressure [3]. - Inventory: Inventory has been decreasing, but with the expected increase in imported lead arrivals and potential growth in recycled lead production, inventory may change this week, and a slowdown in inventory depletion may hinder price increases [3].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - Although some primary lead smelters plan to boost annual production and sales, there are many maintenance activities from October to November, so primary lead production is expected to increase slightly. For recycled lead, smelters affected by Document 770 are gradually resuming production, but raw material inventory levels are low, and waste transportation is affected by environmental protection requirements in the north, so the increase in recycled lead production is limited, and lead ingot spot will remain tight in the short term. It is recommended to short at high prices. After the National Day and Mid - Autumn Festival holidays, the weekly operating rate of lead - acid battery enterprises has significantly rebounded, and the traditional consumption season, along with the replacement market of cars and electric bicycles, supports lead demand. Some leading battery companies have good orders and are expanding energy - storage business, which will further increase lead demand. However, since September, the Shanghai - London ratio of lead ingots has gradually widened, and the export of Chinese lead - acid batteries is under pressure due to tariffs, which will suppress demand growth to some extent. Inventory has been decreasing, but with the expected increase in imported lead arrivals and the possible increase in recycled lead production, inventory may change next week. If the inventory depletion rate slows, it will resist price increases. It is recommended to short at high prices [3] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the Shanghai lead main contract is 17,350 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan; the LME 3 - month lead quote is 2,019 dollars/ton, down 6 dollars. The spread between the December - January contracts of Shanghai lead is - 5 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan. The trading volume of Shanghai lead is 119,775 lots, down 2,688 lots. The net position of the top 20 in Shanghai lead is 496 lots, up 1,470 lots. Shanghai lead warehouse receipts are 21,645 tons, down 1,352 tons. The Shanghai Futures Exchange inventory is 36,333 tons, down 5,368 tons; the LME lead inventory is 224,875 tons, down 4,800 tons [3] 3.2 Spot Market - The spot price of 1 lead on the Shanghai Non - ferrous Metals Network is 17,200 yuan/ton, unchanged; the spot price of 1 lead in the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Metals Market is 17,290 yuan/ton, unchanged. The basis of the lead main contract is - 150 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan; the LME lead premium (0 - 3) is - 35.12 dollars/ton, up 0.42 dollars [3] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The price of lead concentrate (50% - 60%) in Jiyuan is 16,671 yuan, up 275 yuan. The price of domestic recycled lead (≥98.5%) is 17,100 yuan/ton, unchanged. The number of recycled lead production enterprises is 68, unchanged. The capacity utilization rate of recycled lead is 35.56%, down 2.32 percentage points; the monthly output of recycled lead is 22.42 tons, down 6.75 tons. The average weekly operating rate of primary lead is 82.65%, up 1.01 percentage points; the weekly output of primary lead is 3.96 tons, up 0.05 tons. The processing fee of lead concentrate (60%) at major ports is - 90 dollars/kiloton, unchanged. The global lead ore production is 383.3 kilotons, up 3.4 kilotons; the monthly lead ore import volume is 15.06 tons, up 1.58 tons [3] 3.4 Industry Situation - The monthly refined lead import volume is 1,507.92 tons, down 312.63 tons; the monthly refined lead export volume is 1,486.13 tons, down 1,266.09 tons. The average price of waste batteries in the market is 9,967.86 yuan/ton, down 23.21 yuan [3] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The monthly export volume of batteries is 45,696 units, down 3,984 units. The average price of lead - antimony alloy (for batteries, 2% antimony content) is 19,450 yuan/ton, unchanged. The monthly automobile production is 322.7 tons, up 47.46 tons; the monthly new - energy vehicle production is 158 tons, up 24.7 tons [3] 3.6 Industry News - On October 30, a large recycled lead smelter in East China started the furnace - drying operation on Monday and plans to start formal production this weekend. According to SMM analysis, after resuming production, it is expected to contribute over 10,000 tons to the recycled refined lead production in November, which will have a positive impact on market supply. The Federal Reserve announced a 25 - basis - point interest rate cut [3]

Group 1: Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Group 2: Core View - The lead price is expected to show a mainly oscillating and moderately upward trend [4][35] Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Market Review - Last week, the price of the main contract PB2509 of Shanghai lead futures showed a weak oscillating trend, ranging from around 16,615 yuan/ton to about 17,085 yuan/ton [9] - Last week, the price of LME lead futures contracts was around 1,961 - 2,037 US dollars/ton, showing an oscillating and weakening trend [13] 2. Spot Analysis - As of August 1, 2025, the average price of 1 lead in the Yangtze River non - ferrous market was 16,690 yuan/ton, a decrease of 140 yuan from the previous trading day. The spot prices in Shanghai, Guangdong, and Tianjin were 16,460 yuan/ton, 16,565 yuan/ton, and 16,480 yuan/ton respectively. The premium/discount of 1 lead was maintained at around a discount of - 150 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5 yuan/ton from the previous trading day [16] 3. Supply and Demand Situation - As of July 25, 2025, the average processing fees (factory - delivered prices) in Jiyuan, Chenzhou, and Gejiu were 400 yuan/metal ton, 300 yuan/metal ton, and 700 yuan/metal ton respectively. As of June 30, 2025, the monthly refined lead output was 660,000 tons, an increase of 11,000 tons from the previous month and a year - on - year increase of 3.1%. From a seasonal perspective, the current output is at a relatively high level compared to the past five years [22] 4. Inventory Situation - As of August 1, 2025, the refined lead inventory on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 63,283 tons, an increase of 29 tons from the previous week. As of August 1, 2025, the LME lead inventory was 275,325 tons, a decrease of 1,175 tons from the previous trading day, and the proportion of cancelled warrants was 26.73% [28] 5. Fundamental Analysis - On July 30, 2025, the Federal Reserve announced that it would keep the target range of the federal funds rate unchanged between 4.25% and 4.5%, marking the fifth consecutive "standstill" in 2025. Global lead supply and demand are basically balanced, with both lead consumption and lead supply decreasing. Global lead mine production continues to grow. Lead processing fees have changed little and remain at a low level. Lead production has maintained year - on - year growth and ended the month - on - month decline. The Shanghai lead inventory has slightly increased, and the inventory level is at a moderate level in recent years. The LME lead inventory has decreased, and the inventory level is at a high level in recent years [3][34] 6. Future Outlook - The lead price is expected to show a mainly oscillating and moderately upward trend [4][35]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View - Macroscopically, Fed Chair Powell is facing challenges. A potential resignation could cause financial market turmoil, while Fed rate - cuts would benefit the non - ferrous sector. - On the supply side, the开工 rate and output of primary lead smelters have declined due to falling lead prices. The supply of recycled lead is tight because of the limited supply of waste batteries. If the supply of waste batteries remains tight, the overall lead supply increment will be restricted. - On the demand side, the lead - acid battery industry, the main consumer of lead, is approaching the traditional peak season, but the actual spot trading is mediocre. The slow inventory reduction of dealers suppresses the enthusiasm of battery factories, and the seasonal peak effect has not appeared yet. - In terms of inventory, overseas and domestic inventories are rising, and the overall demand is slowing down. - The lead price remained in a narrow - range fluctuation, and the operation suggestion is to go long at low prices. [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main Shanghai lead futures contract was 16,890 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan; the 3 - month LME lead quotation was 2,028.5 dollars/ton, up 14 dollars. - The price difference between the 08 - 09 contracts of Shanghai lead was - 40 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan; the trading volume of Shanghai lead was 106,464 lots, up 4,398 lots. - The net position of the top 20 in Shanghai lead was - 749 lots, up 1,883 lots; the warehouse receipts of Shanghai lead were 60,259 tons, up 200 tons. - The inventory of the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 62,335 tons, up 7,186 tons; the LME lead inventory was 263,150 tons, up 650 tons. [3] 3.2 Spot Market - The spot price of 1 lead on the Shanghai Non - ferrous Metals Network was 16,700 yuan/ton, down 25 yuan; the spot price of 1 lead in the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Metals Market was 16,850 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan. - The basis of the main lead contract was - 190 yuan/ton, down 65 yuan; the LME lead premium (0 - 3) was - 25.21 dollars/ton, up 0.19 dollars. [3] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The average operating rate of primary lead was 70.84%, down 7.03 percentage points; the weekly output of primary lead was 3.32 tons, down 0.29 tons. - The processing fee of 60% lead concentrate at major ports was - 50 dollars/kiloton, unchanged; the global lead ore output was 399.7 kilotons, down 3.7 kilotons. - The domestic processing fee of lead concentrate was 540 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan. - The import volume of lead concentrate was 11.97 tons, up 2.48 tons; the import volume of refined lead was 815.37 tons, down 1,021.76 tons; the export volume of refined lead was 2,109.62 tons, up 223.33 tons. [3] 3.4 Downstream Situation - The export volume of batteries was 41.45 million pieces, down 425,000 pieces; the average price of lead - antimony alloy for batteries was 19,950 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan. - The output of automobiles was 2.8086 million, up 0.1666 million; the output of new - energy vehicles was 1.647 million, up 0.073 million. [3] 3.5 Industry News - Trump criticized Powell again, saying that the FOMC should take action, and "The Fed Whisperer" thought it impossible. - Bessent said they were not in a hurry to nominate a new Fed chair, and Trump would not fire Powell. - US House Speaker Johnson was "disappointed" with Powell, and the legal compliance of firing the Fed chair was unclear. [3]

Group 1: Report Title and Investment Rating - Report Title: "Shanghai Lead May Face Adjustment" [1] - Investment Rating: Not provided Group 2: Core View - The supply of primary and recycled lead is increasing, but the peak - season demand has not started yet. The supply - demand situation of lead is weakening marginally. With the loosening of waste battery costs, the pressure on high lead prices is increasing, and lead prices may face adjustment. Attention should be paid to the possibility of further improvement in demand later [7] Group 3: Fundamental Changes Processing Fees - In May 2025, China imported 103,900 tons of lead concentrates, a 6% month - on - month decrease. The domestic lead concentrate imports continued to decline month - on - month but remained at a moderately high level. The supply of domestic concentrates became more tense, and the processing fees of domestic and foreign lead concentrates continued to decline at a low level. In July, the domestic monthly processing fee was 400 - 700 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 50 yuan; the imported monthly processing fee was - 60 - - 30 US dollars/dry ton, a month - on - month decrease of 15 US dollars. The domestic weekly processing fee for lead ore was 400 - 700 yuan/ton, remaining flat week - on - week; the imported weekly processing fee was - 70 - - 40 US dollars/dry ton, also remaining flat week - on - week [3] Supply - In May 2025, the electrolytic lead output was 331,200 tons, a 3.53% month - on - month increase and a 14.7% year - on - year increase. In June (regular maintenance season), most enterprises planned to start maintenance after mid - June, and the reduction was obvious in late June. The output of recycled refined lead in May was 223,500 tons, significantly lower than expected, a 36.4% month - on - month decrease and a 16.5% year - on - year decrease. In June, the price of waste batteries rebounded, but the profit of recycled lead enterprises did not improve, and the scale of production reduction of recycled lead was still large. Last week, the operating rate of primary lead in three provinces decreased by 3.78 percentage points to 66.21% week - on - week. In July, some primary lead enterprises resumed production after maintenance, and the operating rate rebounded significantly this week. Last week, the weekly operating rate of recycled lead in four provinces was 34.62%, a 4.96 - percentage - point decrease week - on - week. Last week, the price of waste batteries increased with the rising lead price, and the profit of recycled lead improved. This week, the price of waste batteries fluctuated slightly downward, and the profit of recycled lead continued to recover. Some recycled lead enterprises were more willing to resume production, and the supply of recycled lead was expected to gradually increase. Recently, the internal - external price ratio fluctuated at a low level, and the lead ingot import window remained closed [4] Consumption - Last week, the weekly comprehensive operating rate of lead - acid battery enterprises in five provinces decreased week - on - week. At the end of the year, many large enterprises closed their accounts and reduced or stopped production. The willingness of dealers to take delivery was average during the week. Battery factories actively reduced prices to destock, but the effect was not good. The operating rate of large lead - acid battery enterprises was 63%, slightly lower than the previous week. The inventory of finished batteries was 30 days, and the inventory of raw material lead ingots was 4 days. The operating rate of small and medium - sized battery factories was 60 - 65%, the inventory of finished batteries was 21 days, and the raw material inventory was 4 days. This week, the rainy season ended in many places, and battery enterprises that reduced production at the end of the year resumed production. However, it was currently in the transition period between the off - season and the peak - season, and the peak - season demand had not started yet. Market dealers reported that orders were poor and the willingness to replenish inventory was low [5] Spot and Inventory - As of the week ending June 27, the premium of the domestic lead spot to the active month's contract decreased, and the premium was 35 yuan at the weekend. The discount of the LME lead spot narrowed slightly, and the discount was 22.14 US dollars at the end of last week. As of the week ending June 27, the weekly inventory of LME lead decreased by 10,650 tons to 273,400 tons. Although the inventory decreased significantly from a high level, it was still at an absolute high level in the past five years. The weekly inventory of SHFE lead increased by 638 tons to 51,900 tons. As of June 30, the domestic social inventory was 52,300 tons, and the inventory was gradually accumulating. Currently, the social inventory was at a moderately low level [6] Group 4: Market Outlook and Strategy - Last week, the LME lead inventory decreased significantly from a high level but remained at an absolute high level in the past five years. The spot discount narrowed slightly, and the supply - demand of overseas lead remained relatively loose. In May, the import volume of lead concentrates continued to decline month - on - month but was still higher than the same period in previous years. The monthly processing fees of domestic and foreign lead ores further declined at a low level, and the expectation of tight supply of lead concentrates intensified. In July, many primary lead enterprises resumed production after maintenance. The price of waste batteries loosened, the profit of recycled lead enterprises was recovering, and the willingness of recycled lead enterprises to resume production was high. It was expected that the short - term tight supply situation of lead would ease. This week, the rainy season ended in many places, and battery enterprises that reduced production at the end of the year resumed production. However, it was currently in the transition period between the off - season and the peak - season, and the peak - season demand had not started yet. Market dealers reported that orders were poor and the willingness to replenish inventory was low, and the spot was quoted at a discount. Overall, the supply of primary and recycled lead increased, the peak - season demand had not started yet, the supply - demand situation of lead weakened marginally, and with the loosening of waste battery costs, the pressure on high lead prices increased, and lead prices may face adjustment. Attention should be paid to the possibility of further improvement in demand later [7]