来源：市场资讯 （来源：Refinitiv路孚特） Alexandre Hardouin LSEG 股票交易主管，Shared Workflow Trading联席主管 我们探讨了近期政治经济动荡，如：关税上调及央行政策转向如何引发股票、债券和大宗商品市场的剧 烈波动。 这些剧烈波动不仅是本能反应，还反映出全球贸易政策、通胀和央行政策走向的深层不确定性。投资者 对通胀风险重新定价及美联储政策路径的再评估，美国国债收益率剧烈震荡。与此同时，溢出效应持续 扰动欧洲股市并冲击大宗商品价格，对各类货币与资产产生连锁效应。 关键之处在于，当前市场波动不仅受经济基本面驱动，还受政治议程推动。 对于敏捷型投资者而言， 这既意味着需应对的风险，更蕴含着可把握的机遇——尤其在那些价格波动更多由市场情绪驱动、而非 盈利表现或宏观趋势支撑的行业、地区及资产类别中。 在如今的全球市场环境中，仅靠信息灵通已远远不足。 投资者必须精准把握关键要素、行动时机及高 效果断采取行动，才能在市场错位中捕捉机遇。 跨资产意识已是必备能力 孤立分析股票已不符合今市场现实。股票波动受到跨资产类别的多重驱动：大宗商品价格异动、汇率波 动、利率预期调整及 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the impact of recent political and economic turmoil, such as tariff increases and central bank policy shifts, on the volatility of stock, bond, and commodity markets [1][2]. Market Volatility - Following the announcement of a series of tariff policies by the Trump administration, global markets experienced significant turbulence, with nearly $6.6 trillion in market value evaporating from the U.S. stock market within two trading days. The S&P 500 index rebounded by 9.5% the following day, marking the largest single-day gain in over a decade [2]. - The volatility reflects deeper uncertainties regarding global trade policies, inflation, and central bank directions, leading to a reassessment of inflation risks and U.S. Federal Reserve policy paths, resulting in dramatic fluctuations in U.S. Treasury yields [2]. Cross-Asset Awareness - Isolated analysis of stocks is no longer sufficient; stock volatility is influenced by multiple asset classes, including commodity price fluctuations, currency volatility, interest rate expectations, and geopolitical risks [3][4]. - The divergence between U.S. and European stock markets exemplifies this, where the S&P 500 is buoyed by strong technology sector performance, while European indices are pressured by tariff concerns and energy price shocks [3]. Data Tools and Decision-Making - Investors must leverage advanced data tools like LSEG Workspace and StarMine to filter market noise and extract actionable insights, enabling them to make informed decisions in volatile markets [4][5]. - The ability to focus on critical information and utilize refined data-driven signals is increasingly valuable, as it helps identify potential opportunities during market dislocations [5]. Strategic Adjustments - Recognizing market dynamics is crucial, but the ability to act under pressure is equally important. Tariff policy adjustments can have complex ripple effects across industries and asset classes [6]. - Integrated decision-making environments, such as LSEG Workspace, allow investors to analyze and adjust strategies without switching systems, enhancing agility in responding to market changes [6]. Maintaining a Competitive Edge - Market volatility is expected to persist, and investors must build processes, utilize appropriate tools, and apply precise insights to turn market complexities into competitive advantages [7]. - The ultimate winners in this rapidly changing market will be those who can accurately determine where to allocate funds and seize the best timing for action [7].

Core Insights - The article discusses the opportunities and challenges for Chinese enterprises in overseas mergers and acquisitions (M&A) by 2025, highlighting the significant changes in global trade dynamics and the need for compliance, financing, and transaction structuring considerations [1][5][11]. Group 1: M&A Market Overview - As of June 2025, M&A transactions involving Chinese mainland companies accounted for 13% of the global market share, totaling $252 billion, a 130% increase year-over-year, with transaction numbers up by 13% [6]. - The number of mega-deals (over $5 billion) globally increased by 67% compared to the previous year, while transactions over $1 billion involving Chinese mainland companies surged by 440% [6]. - However, cross-border transactions involving Chinese mainland companies totaled $7.4 billion, a decrease of 32% from the previous year, with Sino-American cross-border M&A down by 30% [6]. Group 2: Regional Insights and Trends - Southeast Asia has seen nearly $500 billion in cross-border M&A over the past decade, primarily in high-tech, finance, and industrial sectors, with Singapore, Indonesia, Vietnam, and Malaysia being popular target countries [6]. - Indonesia is highlighted as a growing market with a young workforce and a projected economy ranking seventh globally by 2030, attracting more companies for investment [12]. Group 3: Risks and Challenges - The article outlines the risks and challenges of entering the Indonesian market, including significant changes in economic trends and industry distributions, particularly in infrastructure and public construction [12]. - Legal considerations for investments in Indonesia are emphasized, including requirements for LLCs and specific industry regulations [12]. Group 4: Strategic Insights - The article notes that Chinese enterprises are increasingly adopting strategies such as nearshoring and brand acquisitions to navigate global tariff challenges, with examples of companies successfully leveraging local production to reduce costs [19]. - The importance of risk management tools is highlighted, with companies utilizing geopolitical due diligence and digital tools to monitor tariff policies and streamline decision-making processes [19].

Core Insights - The 2025 Financial Markets Connectivity Summit hosted by LSEG gathered over 400 leaders and innovators from the financial ecosystem to discuss pressing issues in finance and technology [1] Group 1: Customer Experience Transformation - The summit opened with a keynote by Nej D'Jelal, emphasizing the revolutionary enhancement of customer experience in financial services [2] - AI is becoming a core component of financial workflows, enabling smarter, faster, and more autonomous decision-making across front, middle, and back offices [4] - The importance of interoperability, cloud infrastructure, and engineering mindset is highlighted as essential for building scalable and integrated systems [4] Group 2: AI and Automation in Financial Services - A roundtable discussion featured experts discussing how AI and automation are reshaping customer engagement in financial services [5] - The need for interoperable platforms was emphasized to ensure seamless workflows and reduce barriers in customer interactions [5] - Companies are moving towards intent-driven experiences where AI can anticipate customer needs and provide personalized insights in real-time [5] Group 3: AI Adoption in Investment Banking - A discussion focused on how banks and fintech companies can collaborate to integrate AI into daily workflows for investment bankers [8] - The shift from open prompt models to customizable, context-aware AI agents is noted, enhancing productivity and providing targeted insights [8] - The use of quantifiable metrics to track AI's impact on trading execution, research analysis, and customer service is becoming increasingly common [8] Group 4: Data and Relationships in Trading - A roundtable led by David Rickard explored the dynamic role of data and relationships in an increasingly automated trading environment [11] - Despite the acceleration of AI and electronic trading, the importance of trustworthy relationships and market intuition remains critical [11] - Recent market dynamics, including macroeconomic uncertainties and the rise of portfolio trading, were discussed, along with strategies companies are adopting to stay competitive [11] Group 5: The Role of AI in Economic Transformation - Andrew Busch's keynote highlighted the accelerating role of AI in driving real economic change, emphasizing that generative AI is already delivering tangible benefits [13] - Companies that can interpret macro signals in real-time will gain a competitive advantage in the evolving financial landscape [13] Group 6: LSEG Workspace Experience - Attendees experienced the LSEG Workspace, developed in collaboration with EPAM Systems, designed to meet the growing demands of financial professionals [16] - The platform integrates LSEG's premium content, advanced analytical tools, and efficient collaboration features, addressing inefficiencies caused by fragmented systems [16] - LSEG Workspace aims to enhance productivity, clarity of information, and collaboration in the financial services sector [16]

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of utilizing LSEG solutions to maximize value through various training courses and innovative tools designed for financial professionals [2][3][9]. Training Courses - A series of online and offline training sessions are scheduled for July 2025, focusing on various aspects of asset management and data solutions [3][6][7]. - Specific courses include topics such as using Datastream API for data downloads, capturing volatility in the U.S. stock market, and utilizing LSEG Data Libraries for bond searches [6][7]. Product Features - LSEG Workspace is introduced as a comprehensive ecosystem for financial insights, news, and advanced analytics, aimed at enhancing workflow and task efficiency [8][9]. - The platform combines cutting-edge technology with market-leading content to help users manage portfolios, develop trading strategies, and conduct market analysis [9][11]. User Experience - The Workspace interface is designed to be intuitive, allowing users to easily navigate and find relevant information, with AI-generated suggestions to anticipate future needs [11][13]. - Accessibility is highlighted, with the platform providing equal functionality on web and desktop, supporting multi-device synchronization for real-time updates [14]. Customization and Integration - Users can customize their workflows within Workspace to streamline tasks and improve efficiency, with integration capabilities for Microsoft Office applications [15][17]. - The CodeBook feature allows for rapid development of Jupyter notebooks using LSEG API and data, enhancing analytical capabilities [15].

Core Insights - The article emphasizes the new opportunities for companies in the wealth management sector due to the rapid development of AI technology, which enables product innovation and personalized services [1] - It highlights the increasing demand for AI solutions in overseas markets, creating a blue ocean for early adopters [1] - The article also points out the challenges posed by strict data compliance regulations and cultural differences that may lead to algorithmic bias [1] Group 1: AI and Wealth Management - AI-powered innovations such as intelligent customer service and financial analysis can quickly respond to personalized needs of clients [1] - High-quality financial big data supports the precise operation of AI products [1] - Companies need to balance technological innovation with compliance risks through differentiated strategies, such as vertical AI applications [1] Group 2: Event Information - The event will focus on the innovation and application of AI and data technology in wealth management and broader business development for companies going overseas [1][2] - The agenda includes discussions on how AI can assist wealth management firms and other companies in their globalization efforts [3] Group 3: Challenges in Wealth Management - The wealth management industry faces significant challenges, including a changing regulatory environment and increasing demand for personalized services [12] - Companies must adapt quickly and leverage technology and data to provide superior experiences for investors [12] - LSEG's solutions aim to enhance advisor efficiency and streamline digital onboarding processes [12][10]

Core Viewpoint - The evolving climate commitments of countries require investors to adjust their interpretations and strategies accordingly, as these commitments signal future economic directions and climate risks [1][2]. Group 1: Climate Commitment Progress - The progress towards achieving climate goals may be stagnating, with only 13 out of 195 countries submitting updated 2035 emission reduction targets by the deadline [2]. - The urgency and political attention surrounding climate commitments have diminished due to competing global issues such as war, inflation, and geopolitical tensions [2]. - Despite varying levels of government support for energy transition, the shift is reshaping global market dynamics driven by technology, regulation, and finance [2]. Group 2: Integration of Climate Commitments and Investment Analysis - LSEG provides data, models, and research to help investors interpret the intentions and feasibility behind national climate commitments [3]. - The latest "Net Zero Atlas" aligns emission reduction targets with sovereign decarbonization pathways, assessing the compatibility of these commitments with the goal of limiting global warming to well below 2°C [3][4]. - As of now, only 20 updated Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) have been submitted, with some countries' commitments still aligning with the 1.5°C target while others indicate a trajectory exceeding 2°C [4]. Group 3: Long-term Climate Goals - LSEG has developed a global dataset identifying over 100 countries with announced long-term climate goals, with 81 aiming for net-zero emissions by 2050 [6]. - Some countries have earlier targets (e.g., Germany by 2045), while others have later targets (e.g., China by 2060, India by 2070) [6]. - The dataset quantifies the scope and specifics of these goals, highlighting whether they are legally binding or merely public commitments, and which greenhouse gases are included [6]. Group 4: Investor Needs Beyond Targets - Investors require more than just targets; they need clear information on policy frameworks, industry implementation pathways, and funding requirements to make climate commitments actionable [8]. - LSEG's tools track not only overall targets but also critical aspects such as interim milestones, legal enforceability, gas coverage, and financing dependencies [9]. - Understanding the specifics of these commitments is crucial for investors assessing future emission risks and transition exposures [9].

Core Viewpoint - The London Metal Exchange (LME) is undergoing transformation by shifting more bulk trades to its electronic platform, LME Select, to enhance market liquidity and transparency, despite some resistance from members who feel their business is being encroached upon [2][3][4]. Group 1: Market Transformation - LME aims to increase trading activities on the exchange by encouraging members to process certain client orders through LME Select, allowing for competitive bidding that could yield better prices for clients [3][4]. - The LME's commitment to improving market transparency has intensified following the 2022 nickel crisis, which highlighted the impact of over-the-counter (OTC) positions on price volatility [3][4]. Group 2: Member Dynamics - The LME has rejected proposals to transform into a fully open futures market, maintaining that trading must still occur through member channels, thus preserving their control over trading records and market liquidity [4]. - The exchange's cautious approach is justified as metal trading liquidity is inherently limited compared to other commodities, and member market-making activities are crucial for maintaining the vitality of less liquid contracts [4]. Group 3: Technological Advancements - LSEG has expanded its advanced trading platform, utilizing artificial intelligence to optimize negotiation processes, reduce error rates, and enhance bilateral trading efficiency [2][5]. - The integration of automated features into the LSEG Messenger service aims to streamline communication between members and clients, further improving trading efficiency [5].

Core Viewpoint - The roundtable discussion highlighted that disruptions in trade are not temporary but signify a fundamental restructuring of the global economic order, necessitating a new strategic realism mindset [3]. Group 1: Key Themes from the Discussion - The U.S. trade policy is undergoing a fundamental transformation [4]. - Economic policy has become synonymous with security policy, requiring businesses to adapt to a more fragmented and politicized market environment [6]. - The current U.S. government aims to shift the economy towards a manufacturing-based model, recognizing the risks of over-reliance on foreign supply chains, particularly in critical sectors like semiconductors and pharmaceuticals [7]. Group 2: Strategic Shifts in Global Trade - Data-driven scenario planning is replacing predictive models, as companies seek actionable insights to navigate long-term geopolitical uncertainties [5]. - The uncertainty surrounding U.S. global policy roles continues to persist, impacting international relations and trade dynamics [9]. - Countries are reassessing their positions in the market economy, leading to increased government intervention and the development of policies focused on national champions and economic resilience [12]. Group 3: Global Economic Order Changes - Long-standing allies of the U.S., such as Canada and the EU, face new tariff measures, eroding trust and complicating future cooperation [12]. - Concerns over the long-term dominance of the U.S. dollar as a reserve currency are emerging, with limited alternatives currently available [12]. - Japan and South Korea are quickly aligning their trade strategies with U.S. policies, while ASEAN countries seek to balance relations between the U.S. and China [12].

李冈峰 欧洲天然资源基金 Commodity Discovery 特约分析师 这是一个主要从美国每周的CFTC数据公布基金(Managed Positions)在当地期货市场的各种部署，继而反映 现时市场对贵金属的情绪和对短/中期的一个价格判断。美国每周五收市后公布的CFTC数据，记录日为刚过 去的周二(如果过去一周原本工作日是假日的话数据出炉会延期)。 | 概要 | | --- | | 市场认为联储还会在7月减息的机率从四周前的76.4%跌至上周五的25.2%。9月息率维持不变的几 | | 率亦从6.2%升到43.8%。 | 美国评级被下调后，美国债券拍卖行清冷清，债券息率继续向上(价格下跌)。换作以前的情况，如 果美国经济衰退，会出现美股下跌，但美汇及美债受惠资金涌入而上升(这也是为什么笔者原本不 敢太过看好金价的原因，因为美国经济衰退会导致美汇强势)；不过由于近期曾出现美股债汇三杀 的现象，以前的投资常识可能有所改变，因此大家要随时做好两手准备。但以目前情况来看，金 价依然强势。 LSEG Workspace用户可以搜寻CFTC寻找最新数据： | | | COMEX黄金 | | COMEX白银 | | ...