Core Insights - The total cross-border e-commerce import and export volume in China reached 1.32 trillion yuan in the first half of 2025, marking a year-on-year growth of 5.7%, indicating a significant transformation in the industry where Chinese brands are moving from a "low-price, high-volume" model to a focus on technological innovation, localization, and emotional value creation [1] Group 1: Technological Innovation - Chinese outbound brands are breaking category boundaries through technological breakthroughs, with products like the HOVERAir flying camera and JisuLife portable fan showcasing innovative features that cater to specific market needs, leading to significant sales success [2] - The HOVERAir flying camera, designed to meet Japanese regulations, became a bestseller on Amazon on its launch day, exemplifying the philosophy of "creating demand" rather than merely discovering it [2] - In the first quarter of 2025, the top four global smart vacuum robot brands by shipment volume were all Chinese, highlighting the role of technological innovation as a core driver for Chinese products to penetrate high-end markets [2] Group 2: Localization Strategy - Successful globalization strategies are shifting from "global uniformity" to "local deep cultivation," with over 75% of outbound brands establishing operations in five or more overseas markets [3] - The green mobility brand Heybike has successfully penetrated 20 countries, including the U.S. and Japan, by integrating into local cycling cultures through emotional marketing initiatives [3] - JisuLife's localized strategy includes adjusting product offerings based on regional consumer habits, achieving significant sales milestones with over 30 million units sold and revenue exceeding 1 billion yuan [3] Group 3: Emotional Value and AI Empowerment - Chinese brands are creating emotional connections with global consumers, as seen with Pop Mart's Labubu3.0 series, which experienced a nearly 480% increase in overseas revenue in the first quarter of 2025 [4] - The integration of AI in cross-border e-commerce is accelerating, with 45% of companies using generative AI for product innovation and 86% of small to medium-sized brands considering AI a key driver for marketing success [4] - The transformation in cross-border e-commerce is not only about trade data growth but also about establishing new pathways for Chinese brands to connect with global consumers on an emotional level [4]

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Trading Buy" rating for the company, indicating a potential upside of 5% to 15% from the current price [6][14]. Core Insights - The company is expected to achieve a revenue growth of no less than 200% year-on-year for the first half of 2025, with net profit anticipated to increase by no less than 350%, resulting in revenues of at least 13.7 billion RMB and profits of at least 4.2 billion RMB [6]. - The strong performance is attributed to the success of the Labubu3.0 series, which has significantly enhanced the company's IP matrix and profitability across various markets [10]. - The report anticipates continued strong growth momentum in the second half of 2025, driven by pre-sales and the popularity of multiple IP series [10]. Financial Summary - The company forecasts net profits of 7.15 billion RMB, 10.34 billion RMB, and 13.48 billion RMB for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 128.6%, 44.7%, and 30.4% [10]. - Earnings per share (EPS) are projected to be 5.32 RMB, 7.70 RMB, and 10.04 RMB for the same years, with corresponding price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios of 45, 31, and 24 [10]. - The total revenue is expected to reach 26.52 billion RMB in 2025, with a significant increase in operating profit and net profit over the forecast period [16].

Group 1 - Shenzhen is advancing the integration of finance, technology, and data to empower high-quality development of the real economy [2] - The focus areas include educational and talent system reforms, building a higher-level open economy, and establishing a scientific and legal governance model [2] Group 2 - The National Defense Science and Technology University has developed a bionic robot the size of a mosquito, which may transform reconnaissance methods on future battlefields [3] - OpenAI's CEO indicated that GPT-5 is likely to be released this summer, although delays may occur due to naming and safety testing [4] Group 3 - Reports of the cessation of "national subsidies" in Shanghai are false; subsidies are still being issued normally [5] - The three major telecom operators in China will fully reopen eSIM services in the second half of this year [6] Group 4 - Li Auto's CEO announced that the number of Li 5C supercharging stations has reached 2,500, surpassing Tesla's charging stations in China [7] - Xiaomi acquired an industrial land parcel in Beijing's Yizhuang New City for approximately 635 million yuan [7] - JD.com is testing compliant stablecoins in Hong Kong, with plans to launch in the fourth quarter of this year [7] Group 5 - Alipay+ launched the first embedded global payment solution for smart glasses, completing its first transaction in Hong Kong [8] - Pop Mart has initiated a large-scale restock and online pre-sale for the Labubu series to enhance consumer shopping experience [9] Group 6 - SoftBank raised approximately $4.8 billion by selling shares of T-Mobile to fund its ambitious AI plans [9] - Apple aims to utilize generative AI to accelerate the design of its custom chips [10] Group 7 - SpaceX's Starship S36 experienced a significant explosion during a static fire test, with an investigation underway [11] - TDK acquired the American smart glasses manufacturer SoftEye for less than $100 million [12] Group 8 - LG Energy Solution and Toyota Tsusho established a joint venture in the U.S. focused on battery recycling, aiming for a processing capacity of 13,500 tons of waste annually [13][14] - Honda successfully conducted a test of a reusable rocket, marking a first for a private Japanese company [15] Group 9 - Zoox, an Amazon subsidiary, is ramping up production of autonomous taxis, with plans for a commercial launch in Las Vegas [15] Group 10 - Yushu Technology completed a C-round financing led by several major investors, including Tencent and Alibaba [16] - Yuxin Technology submitted an application for H-share listing on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange [17] Group 11 - A-shares and Hong Kong stocks experienced collective declines, with the Shanghai Composite Index down 0.79% [18] - U.S. stock indices showed mixed results, with the Nasdaq up 0.13% [19]

资料图。本文来源：第一财经 Labubu大量补货后二手报价腰斩,知情人士回应补 货节奏和产能情况 泡泡玛特相关知情人士表示，泡泡玛特相关产品的补货不会呈现出规律，也是在一定程度上规避黄 牛的影响。 潮玩二手交易平台千岛app显示，近2个月内，Labubu3.0系列的成交价呈直线上升，6月16日到达 最高点，近两日有所回落。 近日，Labubu似乎没有那么难抢了。 随之冷静的还有泡泡玛特的股价。截至6月19日17时，泡泡玛特当日跌超5%。在此之前的很长一 段时间内，泡泡玛特的股价一直高歌猛进。今年3月至6月中旬，泡泡玛特股价涨幅达100%。而从 2024年初至今，泡泡玛特的股价涨幅超过了11倍。 ■ 6月18日，泡泡玛特THE MONSTERS前方高能系列-搪胶毛绒挂件盲盒（LABUBU 3.0系列）在泡 泡玛特官方商城小程序等渠道补货，有不少消费者在社交平台表示自己抢到了。 力，从春节开始就紧急找工人复工，扩充产能，但目前看来市场需求远超供应链的反应速度。 补货后，二手市场的Labubu3.0价格也应声下跌。6月18日之前，在泡泡玛特二手交易群里， Labubu3.0一端（整盒内含6个盲盒）的价格多在1100 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent restock of Labubu 3.0 series by Pop Mart has led to a decrease in scarcity and a subsequent drop in secondary market prices, impacting the company's stock performance significantly [1][2]. Group 1: Product Restock and Consumer Response - On June 18, Pop Mart restocked the Labubu 3.0 series, which received high demand from consumers, leading to system overloads during the purchasing process [1]. - The pre-sale period for Labubu 3.0 extends until September 22, indicating a potential three-month wait for consumers [1]. - Pop Mart has optimized the sales process to enhance consumer experience and mitigate negative behaviors affecting genuine fans [1]. Group 2: Secondary Market Dynamics - Following the restock, the price of Labubu 3.0 in the secondary market dropped significantly, with prices ranging from 600 to 900 yuan, down from 1100 to 1500 yuan prior to the restock [2]. - The price decline is attributed to the reduced scarcity of the product, with some sellers indicating they may keep unsold items for personal use [2]. - The trading platform Qianshao reported a recent spike in Labubu 3.0 prices, peaking on June 16 before experiencing a downturn [2]. Group 3: Stock Market Impact - As of June 19, Pop Mart's stock price fell over 5%, following a period of significant growth where the stock had increased by 100% from March to mid-June [2]. - Since the beginning of 2024, Pop Mart's stock has surged over 11 times, indicating a volatile market response to product availability and consumer demand [2].

Economic and Trade Developments - The first meeting of the China-US economic and trade consultation mechanism was held in London, where both sides reached a framework agreement to implement the consensus from the recent phone call between the two countries' leaders and to consolidate the outcomes of the Geneva talks [2] - The State Council of China held a meeting to deploy pilot measures for the replication and promotion of the China (Shanghai) Free Trade Pilot Zone, focusing on stabilizing expectations and activating demand in the real estate market [1][2] Consumer and Producer Price Index - In May, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) decreased by 0.2% month-on-month and by 0.1% year-on-year, with the core CPI (excluding food and energy) rising by 0.6% year-on-year, an increase of 0.1 percentage points from the previous month [3] - The Producer Price Index (PPI) fell by 0.4% month-on-month and by 3.3% year-on-year, with the decline attributed to international input factors and a temporary decrease in domestic energy and raw material prices [3] Financial and Monetary Data - As of the end of May, the broad money supply (M2) stood at 325.78 trillion yuan, growing by 7.9% year-on-year, while the narrow money supply (M1) was 108.91 trillion yuan, up by 2.3% year-on-year [6] - The People's Bank of China reported a net cash injection of 306.4 billion yuan in the first five months of the year [6] Automotive Industry Developments - Several major automotive companies, including China FAW, Dongfeng, and Geely, announced a unified payment term of 60 days for suppliers, reflecting a commitment to maintaining a healthy supply chain [8] - The launch of aluminum alloy futures trading on June 10, with a base price set at 18,365 yuan per ton, indicates a new development in the commodities market [8] Regulatory Changes - The State Administration for Market Regulation released a draft for public consultation on the supervision of live e-commerce, emphasizing the responsibility of live stream operators to avoid false or misleading commercial promotions [5] - New regulations for individual business registration will take effect on July 15, clarifying the registration process for individual businesses operating online [5]

Domestic News - The State Council held a meeting to promote the replication of pilot measures from the China (Shanghai) Free Trade Zone and discussed optimizing drug and consumable procurement [2] - The People's Bank of China reported that in the first five months, RMB loans increased by 10.68 trillion yuan, with corporate loans accounting for 9.8 trillion yuan [2] - The total social financing scale increased by 18.63 trillion yuan in the first five months of 2025, which is 3.83 trillion yuan more than the same period last year [2] - The China Securities Regulatory Commission announced new regulations for program trading in the futures market, effective from October 9, 2025, to enhance oversight and ensure market order [2][3] - The Guangzhou government proposed a plan to boost consumption, including measures to cancel real estate purchase restrictions and reduce loan down payment ratios [3] Company Announcements - Huayang New Materials stated that it does not possess rare earth permanent magnet attributes [5] - Dongshan Precision plans to invest up to 5.935 billion yuan in Solstice Optoelectronics to expand its optical communication layout [5] - ST Haicheng will repurchase shares worth 30 to 50 million yuan during the delisting period [5] - Honghui Fruits and Vegetables announced a change in its controlling shareholder to Shenze Ruitai, with stock resuming trading [5] - Vision China is introducing investors to increase capital by 100 million yuan in its subsidiary to accelerate its layout in AI [5]

Core Viewpoint - The recent surge in popularity of the Labubu 3.0 series from Pop Mart has led to a global buying frenzy, significantly impacting the stock performance of related companies in the A-share market, particularly Yuanlong Yatu, which has seen a notable increase in its stock price [1] Group 1: Stock Performance - Pop Mart's stock has increased over tenfold in the past year [1] - Yuanlong Yatu's stock has achieved 7 consecutive trading limits in 11 days [1] Group 2: Company Collaborations - Ten listed companies have confirmed their collaborations with Pop Mart in the past three months, including Changlian Co., Yidian Tianxia, Debi Group, Qingmu Technology, and others [1][2] - Changlian Co. has established long-term strategic partnerships with multiple Fortune 500 companies, including Pop Mart [2] - Yidian Tianxia has identified Pop Mart as an important client, indicating a positive business relationship [2] - Debi Group has introduced Pop Mart vending machines in its properties [2] - Qingmu Technology serves as the operational service provider for Pop Mart's Tmall flagship store [2] - Zhongxin Tourism is one of the official ticketing agents for Pop Mart's city parks [2] - Hanshuo Technology's products and solutions are being utilized in Pop Mart's overseas stores [2] - *ST Yangguang has vending machines and stores for Pop Mart in its shopping centers [2] - Yuanlong Yatu is engaged in brand marketing and promotional projects with Pop Mart [2] - Wanda Film has collaborated with Pop Mart on numerous IPs, resulting in over a hundred related SKUs [2] - Nanling Technology has established a partnership with Pop Mart to provide integrated network security services for its global stores [2]

Core Viewpoint - Bubble Mart's Labubu 3.0 series has seen strong demand, selling out quickly online in mainland China, while in Hong Kong, purchases require a lottery system, indicating high consumer interest and potential for growth [2] Group 1: Financial Performance - Bubble Mart's revenue for Q1 FY2025 is expected to grow by 165% to 170% year-on-year, with domestic revenue increasing by 95% to 100% and overseas revenue soaring by 475% to 480% [3] - Analysts have raised profit forecasts for Bubble Mart, with CICC increasing net profit estimates for FY2025 and FY2026 by 10% and 8% respectively, reaching RMB 6.4 billion and RMB 7.92 billion [3] - Bank of America has raised its earnings per share estimates by 8% and 10% for the next two years, increasing the target price from HKD 200 to HKD 236 [4] Group 2: Product and Market Strategy - The Labubu 3.0 series is priced at USD 27.99, reflecting a 27% increase from previous series, indicating the company's ability to pass on tariff costs to consumers [5] - Morgan Stanley anticipates strong sales in Q2, driven by the launch of Labubu 3.0 and replenishment of popular products, estimating growth of over 100% in Q2 [6] - Citi highlights that Bubble Mart's overseas revenue growth is attributed to a low base and strong new product sales, with Labubu 3.0 expected to be a short-term growth catalyst [6]