Key Takeaways Nebius targets $7B-$9B ARR by 2026, with 2026 revenue seen at $3B-$3.4B.Nebius topped $1.2B ARR in 2025, adding 9 data centers and over 2GW of contracted power.Nebius sees longer AI contracts, $4B pipeline growth and Microsoft revenue ramping in 2027.Nebius Group N.V. (NBIS) has outlined an ambitious yet clearly defined financial trajectory, targeting an annualized run rate (ARR) revenue of between $7 billion and $9 billion by the end of 2026. The company reiterated its confidence in achieving ...

When you don't know what to pay for a stock you tend to sell it. Right now, we have people selling technology shares left and right because they are unsure of what they own and what it might be worth. They are looking at the incredible shrinking price-to-earnings ratio — the "multiple" — and they are saying get me out of here. I see it. And not just in tech. What do we pay for Danaher when it buys a company , Masimo, that we have long since disliked, ever since its litigation with Apple over patent infringe ...

Core Insights - Microsoft and Oracle are leading companies in cloud and artificial intelligence, both expanding their AI infrastructure and integrating AI into their offerings as they approach 2026 [1] Microsoft (MSFT) Overview - Microsoft Cloud revenues surpassed $50 billion in Q2 FY2026, marking a 26% year-over-year increase, with Azure growing by 39% [2] - The company has 15 million commercial Microsoft 365 Copilot seats, indicating strong revenue potential through ARPU expansion [3] - Microsoft reported commercial remaining performance obligations (RPO) of $625 billion, a 110% increase year-over-year, providing significant revenue visibility [4] - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for MSFT's fiscal 2026 earnings is $16.97 per share, reflecting an 8.4% upward revision and a projected 24.41% growth from fiscal 2025 [5] Oracle (ORCL) Overview - Oracle is heavily investing in Oracle Cloud Infrastructure (OCI), with OCI revenues growing 68% in Q2 FY2026 and GPU-related revenues increasing by 177% [6] - The company reported a record RPO of $523 billion, up 438% year-over-year, driven by commitments from major clients [6] - Oracle's fiscal 2026 revenue guidance remains at $67 billion, with an additional $4 billion projected for fiscal 2027 [7] - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for ORCL's fiscal 2026 earnings is $7.45 per share, showing a slight downward revision of 0.4% but indicating a 23.55% growth from fiscal 2025 [10] Valuation and Performance Comparison - Microsoft has a forward P/E ratio of 21.95x, while Oracle's is 19.46x, with Microsoft's valuation appearing more justified due to its scale and profitability [11] - Oracle shares have declined by 34.4% over the past six months, underperforming the sector, while Microsoft shares have lost 22.1%, outperforming Oracle [14] Conclusion - Microsoft demonstrates advantages in scale, profitability, AI monetization, and balance sheet strength compared to Oracle [16] - Oracle faces challenges such as negative free cash flow and declining software revenues, which may impact its near-term outlook [16] - Investors are advised to monitor Microsoft for potential entry points, while Oracle holders may consider holding or waiting for a more favorable entry [16]

Microsoft’s AI chief, Mustafa Suleyman, told the Financial Times last week that the tech giant is striving for “true self-sufficiency” in AI. That means developing its own powerful models and steadily reducing its dependence on OpenAI, even as the two companies maintain their partnership. Essentially, the company aims to move beyond the “powered by someone else” model.Shares of the tech giant have slumped 18% on a year-to-date (YTD) basis. There are two main drivers behind those losses: the company’s FQ2 ea ...

Tim Beyers: To that point, Jason, let's talk about two that are on the radar this morning as we are taping. This is on Monday late morning Mountain Time. Both Monday.com, ticker MNDY, and Kyndryl, ticker KD, are getting absolutely slaughtered. Monday has been down more than 20% through various parts of the day. Kyndryl down more than 50%. These two are a little different, though. We'll talk about Monday in a second, but just the story on Kyndryl as the CFO and the General Counsel both appear to have been d ...

Core Insights - Alithya Group reported mixed financial results for Q3 fiscal 2026, with consolidated revenue remaining flat year over year at CAD 115.2 million, while net earnings increased to CAD 0.7 million, attributed to lower goodwill impairment [6][4]. Revenue Performance - International revenue increased by CAD 1.0 million, or 19.2%, to CAD 6.2 million, driven by organic growth in enterprise transformation services and favorable foreign exchange [1]. - U.S. revenue rose by CAD 6.2 million, or 12.7%, to CAD 55.0 million, supported by the acquisition of eVerge and organic growth, although impacted by an unfavorable U.S. dollar exchange rate [2]. - Canadian revenue decreased by CAD 7.7 million, or 12.5%, to CAD 54.0 million, primarily due to reduced public sector contract revenues and maturing client projects, partially offset by contributions from the XRM Vision acquisition [3][8]. Profitability Metrics - Adjusted EBITDA was CAD 10.0 million, representing 8.7% of revenues, down from 8.9% the previous year, mainly due to lower gross margins [5]. - Gross margin for the consolidated revenue was 31.7%, a decline from 32.3% year over year [5]. Bookings and Pipeline - Alithya reported bookings of CAD 130.9 million, with a book-to-bill ratio of 1.14 for the quarter [9][11]. - Bookings by segment included CAD 62.1 million in Canada, CAD 56.6 million in the U.S., and CAD 12.2 million internationally, with over CAD 52 million in renewals [12]. Strategic Initiatives - The company plans to spin off Datum IP in exchange for a minority stake, with no cash involved, and intends to repurchase approximately 2.5 million Class A shares to fund this initiative [7][18]. - Management emphasized a focus on higher-value services and noted that 13.9% of professionals are now engaged in Smart Shoring [21]. Cash Flow and Debt Management - Alithya generated net cash from operating activities of CAD 25.5 million, an increase of CAD 13.8 million year over year [15]. - Net debt stood at CAD 101.9 million, with a leverage ratio improving to 1.9 times net debt over trailing 12-month adjusted EBITDA [16]. Management Insights on AI and Market Trends - Management addressed concerns regarding AI's impact on IT services, stating that AI enhances productivity by shifting tasks rather than eliminating jobs [20]. - The company is investing in training to adapt to the evolving market landscape, particularly in AI-based solutions for the healthcare industry [17].

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The software industry is experiencing a valuation multiple decline of 33%, reaching its lowest level since 2016, primarily due to uncertainties stemming from accelerated AI innovations that have increased discount rates [2][4][5]. - Despite the valuation drop, the fundamental trends in the software industry have not significantly deteriorated, with no major acceleration or deceleration in growth observed [4][5]. Company-Specific Insights Palantir - Palantir reported a strong fourth quarter with a growth rate of 70% and an operating margin of 57%, projecting over 60% growth for the next year [2][5]. - The company's success is attributed to its ontology data technology, which is crucial for understanding data relationships and requires deep domain knowledge and customized services [2][5][6]. - Palantir's Foundry platform is increasingly adopted by clients in industrial and oil & gas sectors, positioning it as a key supplier for companies looking to implement AI projects [5]. Atlassian - Atlassian's free cash flow multiple is approximately 14 times, indicating a low valuation compared to other high-growth companies [8]. - Despite good financial performance, the stock price has not improved, reflecting low market risk appetite and varying investor expectations regarding growth and profitability [8][9]. Snowflake - Snowflake's enterprise value/sales multiple has returned to levels seen in 2014-2016, with signs of growth emerging [3][14]. - The company has shown consistent product revenue growth of 28% over two consecutive quarters, with one quarter reaching 30% [14][15]. - Snowflake's core business remains stable, and its AI business is performing strongly, with product revenue growth expected to approach 30% [18]. Microsoft - Microsoft has demonstrated steady growth in its Azure platform, with a rolling 12-month fixed currency growth rate showing improvement [15]. - The Microsoft 365 business cloud segment is also improving, with a fixed currency growth rate of 15% in the last quarter [15]. Intuit - Intuit is expanding into the high-end market through global business solutions and is focusing on auxiliary services during tax season, which could open a $35 billion market opportunity [19]. ServiceNow - ServiceNow is advancing its new product cycle, with its Now Assist product currently generating an annual recurring revenue (ARR) of $600 million [20]. - The adoption rate of its Prosci product is expected to increase significantly in the coming years, contributing to stronger growth [20]. Market Sentiment and Future Outlook - The current market sentiment is cautious, with software stocks averaging a 20% decline this year, and prices at 55% of their 52-week highs [4][5]. - Investors are looking for signs of improvement in the participation of established software companies in large-scale innovation cycles to drive growth [14]. - The "AI is software" perspective suggests that AI represents an evolutionary change in software, with large language models being significant breakthroughs that enhance automation in workflows [10][11]. Valuation Considerations - The current enterprise value/sales multiple for the software industry is approximately 4.4 times expected sales, close to historical averages but not at the lowest point [13]. - GAAP earnings issues are affecting investor decisions, with some companies like Microsoft and ServiceNow showing positive GAAP earnings growth, yet not attracting significant market interest [13]. This summary encapsulates the key insights and trends discussed in the conference call, highlighting the current state of the software industry and specific company performances.

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for Pengding Holdings (002938) with a target PE of 30x for 2025E and 24x for 2026E, while other companies like Shenghong Technology (300476) and Shengyi Technology (600183) do not have a specific rating [3]. Core Insights - North American cloud vendors are experiencing a significant increase in capital expenditures, driven by AI demand, with total capital expenditures projected to rise from approximately $160 billion to about $450 billion from 2023 to 2025, indicating a strong alignment between capital expenditure growth and AI computing demand [9][25]. - The NPO (Near-Photonics Optics) and CPO (Co-Packaged Optics) technologies are gaining traction in the industry, providing substantial growth opportunities for domestic optical communication companies [31][46]. - The report emphasizes the importance of scalable optical modules in future cloud infrastructure, with NPO currently favored by domestic cloud vendors due to its advantages in interconnect density and cost [34][36]. Summary by Sections North American Cloud Vendors' Financial Performance - Microsoft reported Q4 FY26 revenue of $81.273 billion, a year-over-year increase of 16.72%, with a net profit of $38.458 billion, up 59.52% [12]. - Google achieved Q4 FY25 revenue of $113.828 billion, a 17.99% increase year-over-year, with a net profit of $34.455 billion, up 29.84% [16]. - Amazon's Q4 FY25 revenue reached $213.386 billion, a 13.62% increase year-over-year, with a net profit of $2.1192 billion, up 5.93% [20]. - Meta's Q4 FY25 revenue was $59.893 billion, a 23.78% increase year-over-year, with a net profit of $22.768 billion, up 9.26% [21]. Capital Expenditure Outlook for 2026 - Google is expected to have a capital expenditure of $175-185 billion in 2026, representing a year-over-year increase of 97% [25]. - Meta's capital expenditure is projected to be in the range of $115-135 billion for 2026, indicating a 77% increase year-over-year [27]. - Amazon's capital expenditure for 2026 is estimated at around $200 billion, a 50% increase from previous estimates [20]. NPO and CPO Technology Developments - NPO technology is gaining popularity among cloud vendors due to its high interconnect density and cost-effectiveness, making it suitable for distributed scale-up networks [34][36]. - CPO technology, which integrates optical engines and switching chips, is being actively promoted by NVIDIA and is expected to replace traditional pluggable optical modules in the future [37][42]. - The report highlights the significant development space for domestic optical communication companies driven by the advancements in NPO and CPO technologies [31][46].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for Pengding Holdings (002938) with a target price reflecting a potential upside of over 15% compared to the benchmark index [3]. Core Insights - North American cloud vendors are experiencing a significant increase in capital expenditures, driven by ongoing AI demand, with total capital expenditures projected to rise from approximately $160 billion to about $450 billion from 2023 to 2025, indicating a strong alignment with AI computing needs [9][25]. - The NPO (Near-Passive Optical) and CPO (Co-Packaged Optics) technologies are gaining traction, providing substantial growth opportunities for domestic optical communication companies, with NPO being particularly favored by cloud service providers [31][36]. Summary by Sections North American Cloud Vendors' Financial Performance - Microsoft reported Q4 FY26 revenue of $81.273 billion, a year-over-year increase of 16.72%, with net profit rising 59.52% to $38.458 billion, exceeding market expectations [12]. - Google achieved Q4 FY25 revenue of $113.828 billion, up 17.99% year-over-year, with net profit increasing by 29.84% to $34.455 billion, driven by strong cloud business performance [16]. - Amazon's Q4 FY25 revenue reached $213.386 billion, a 13.62% increase year-over-year, with net profit of $2.1192 billion, reflecting robust AWS growth [20]. - Meta's Q4 FY25 revenue was $59.893 billion, up 23.78% year-over-year, with net profit of $22.768 billion, showcasing strong performance in advertising [21]. Capital Expenditure Outlook for 2026 - Google is expected to increase its capital expenditures to a range of $175 billion to $185 billion in 2026, representing a year-over-year growth of approximately 97% [25]. - Meta's capital expenditure guidance for 2026 is set between $115 billion and $135 billion, indicating a nearly 77% increase compared to 2025 [27]. - Amazon's capital expenditure for FY2026 is projected at around $200 billion, a 50% increase from previous estimates, primarily for AI computing and cloud infrastructure [20]. NPO and CPO Technology Developments - NPO technology is gaining popularity among cloud vendors due to its high interconnect density and cost-effectiveness, facilitating the construction of distributed Scale Up networks [34][36]. - CPO technology, which integrates optical engines and switching chips, is being actively promoted by NVIDIA, with plans for deployment in AI supercomputing environments [37][42]. - The report highlights significant opportunities for domestic optical communication companies, recommending continued attention to the CPO and NPO supply chains, including companies like Zhongji Xuchuang and Tianfu Communication [46].

Nvidia’s growth story is far from over, given analysts' forecast revenue to increase from $130.5 billion in fiscal 2025 (ended in January) to $575 billion in fiscal 2030. Out of the 50 analysts covering NVDA stock, 44 recommend “Strong Buy,” three recommend “Moderate Buy,” two recommend “Hold,” and one recommends “Strong Sell.” The average NVDA stock price target is $255.34, above the current price of about $190.That transformation is showing up in the numbers. NVDA stock has delivered a staggering 1,230% g ...