消息面上，据每日经济新闻报道，摩根士丹利（简称"大摩"）近期报告指出，泡泡玛特正在从 过去两年的"爆发式增长"阶段，过渡到未来的"可持续增长"阶段。该机构预测泡泡玛特2026年 Labubu的收入增速将显著放缓，增长引擎将由单一爆款转向非Labubu IP的多元化驱动。 该公司曾在2025年第三季度交出一份颇为亮眼的业绩，整体收益同比激增245%-250%。业绩大 增主要是得益于泡泡玛特此前推出的Mini Labubu、SP不眠剧场等新品，叠加二季度预售发货的 收入确认，直接推动业绩增长。此外，核心IP Labubu延续全球热度，成为关键增长动力。 资料图。本文来源 ：界面新 闻 记者 宋佳楠 泡泡玛特跌超8%，大摩预测明年Labubu收入增速 将显著放缓 12月8日，知名潮玩公司泡泡玛特在港股早盘低开低走，一度跌超8%，创近8个交易日以来新 低。截至午间休市，其股价为201港元，较昨日收盘价下跌18港元，跌幅达8.22%。 11月下旬，伯恩斯坦驻香港亚洲消费股高级研究分析师胡美林指出，围绕泡泡玛特Labubu系列 玩具的狂热情绪，正逐渐重现20世纪90年代"豆豆娃"从鼎盛走向崩盘的"繁荣-萧条"周期。她认 ...

此前11月13日晚，泡泡玛特Labubu新品上市，热度明显下降，其在二级市场的溢价已明显回落。其中隐藏款溢价幅度缩水超50%，而3.0及4.0常规款在 二手平台售价已跌破官方零售价。 12月8日，泡泡玛特开盘闪崩，一路低走，截至收盘跌近8.5%，为六周多来最大跌幅；近一个月累计跌超14%，与8月高点相比跌约40%，市值蒸发超 1800亿港元。 据智通财经报道，德银最新研报指出，为应对需求激增，泡泡玛特将Labubu产能从上半年的1000万只大幅提升至年底月均5000万只。该行警示，对于 依赖独特设计与稀缺性驱动的潮流玩具品牌而言，大规模量产往往是热度消退的前兆。 市场看空情绪持续升温。港交所12月8日披露数据显示，截至收盘，泡泡玛特沽空金额为10.92亿港元，较上一交易日上升210.58%，较最近30个交易 日均值上升47.35%；沽空比率为19.23%，较近30个交易日沽空比率均值的偏离幅度达-17.33%。 自12月2日以来，泡泡玛特卖空股数从111.06万股增至161.70万股，同期卖空金额也从2.41亿港元大幅上升至6.23亿港元。 | 近10日活空金额及活空比率一览： | | --- | | 交易日 ...

| 交易日期 | 沽空金额(亿港元) | 活容比率(%) | 涨跌幅 (%) | 收盘价(港元) | 成交金额(亿港元) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 12月8日 | 10.92 | 19.23 | -8.49 | 200.40 | 56.87 | | 12月5日 | 3.51 | 24.83 | 1.67 | 219.00 | 14.10 | | 12月4日 | 3.32 | 19.81 | -0.28 | 215.40 | 16.77 | | 12月3日 | 3.66 | 26.13 | -1.28 | 216.00 | 14.01 | | 12月2日 | 2.41 | 12.55 | 1.67 | 218.80 | 19.23 | | 12月1日 | 3.81 | 11.87 | -4.27 | 215.20 | 32.12 | | 11月28日 | 4.99 | 14.94 | 2.84 | 224.80 | 33.38 | | 11月27日 | 9.79 | 16.64 | 6.84 | 218.60 | 58.98 | | 11月26日 | 3 ...

| 交易日期 | 法空金额(亿港元) | 洁空比率(%) | 涨跌幅 (%) | 收盘价(港元) | 成交金额(亿港元) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 12月8日 | 10.92 | 19.23 | -8.49 | 200.40 | 56.87 | | 12月5日 | 3.51 | 24.83 | 1.67 | 219.00 | 14.10 | | 12月4日 | 3.32 | 19.81 | -0.28 | 215.40 | 16.77 | | 12月3日 | 3.66 | 26.13 | -1.28 | 216.00 | 14.01 | | 12月2日 | 2.41 | 12.55 | 1.67 | 218.80 | 19.23 | | 12月1日 | 3.81 | 11.87 | -4.27 | 215.20 | 32.12 | | 11月28日 | 4.99 | 14.94 | 2.84 | 224.80 | 33.38 | | 11月27日 | 9.79 | 16.64 | 6.84 | 218.60 | 58.98 | | 11月26日 | 3 ...

泡泡玛特(09992.HK)股价今日持续下行。截至发稿，跌8.95%，报199.40港元。 消息面上，据每日经济新闻报道，摩根士丹利（简称"大摩"）近期报告指出，泡泡玛特正在从过去两年的"爆发式增长"阶段，过渡到未来的"可 持续增长"阶段。该机构预测泡泡玛特2026年Labubu的收入增速将显著放缓，增长引擎将由单一爆款转向非Labubu IP的多元化驱动。 该公司曾在2025年第三季度交出一份颇为亮眼的业绩，整体收益同比激增245%-250%。业绩大增主要是得益于泡泡玛特此前推出的Mini Labubu、SP不眠剧场等新品，叠加二季度预售发货的收入确认，直接推动业绩增长。此外，核心IP Labubu延续全球热度，成为关键增长动力。 | 十田 = | 期末息股本(万股) | 定容公用 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 卖空股数(万股) ; | 金额(亿元) ; | | 2025-12-08 | 134,294.32 | 305.12 | 6.23 | | 2025-12-05 | 134,294.32 | 161.70 | 3.51 | | 2025-12-04 | 13 ...

Core Viewpoint - The stock price of Pop Mart (09992.HK) has experienced a significant decline following the release of its Q3 operating results, with a drop of over 9% and a cumulative decline of nearly 30% since September [1][3]. Financial Performance - Pop Mart reported a remarkable year-on-year revenue increase of 245%-250% for Q3 2025, continuing the high growth trend observed in the first half of the year [5]. - Revenue from the Chinese market grew by 185%-190%, with online channels seeing a growth rate of 300%-305% and offline channels increasing by 130%-135% [5]. - The overseas market showed exceptional performance, with overall revenue soaring by 365%-370%. The Americas market led with a staggering growth rate of 1265%-1270%, while Europe and Asia-Pacific regions grew by 735%-740% and 170%-175%, respectively [6]. Market Sentiment and Analyst Opinions - There is a divergence in analyst opinions regarding the sustainability of Pop Mart's high growth. Some analysts express concerns that revenue growth may peak this year, leading to a potential slowdown in 2024 [7]. - Conversely, JPMorgan upgraded Pop Mart's rating from "Neutral" to "Overweight," raising the target price from 300 HKD to 320 HKD, citing strong performance of popular IPs and improved valuation attractiveness as key drivers [7]. - According to招商证券, Pop Mart's net profit for 2025 is expected to reach 7 billion RMB, approximately 15% higher than market consensus, primarily due to an underestimation of the scale and speed of its overseas expansion [7]. - The significant divergence in institutional views has led to market volatility, with Pop Mart's stock dropping nearly 11% intraday, reflecting investor concerns about the sustainability of growth amid high base effects [7].

Core Viewpoint - The company, Pop Mart, announced a significant increase in overall revenue for Q3 2025, with a projected growth of 245% to 250% year-on-year, driven by strong performance in both domestic and overseas markets [1] Group 1: Revenue Growth - The revenue from the Chinese market is expected to grow by 185% to 190%, while overseas market revenue is projected to increase by 365% to 370% [1] - In Q3, the offline channels in China are anticipated to grow by 130% to 135%, and online channels are expected to see a growth of 300% to 305% [1] Group 2: Product and Channel Strategy - The company launched new IP products such as Mini Labubu and SP Unrest Theater, which, along with increased production capacity, contributed to the revenue growth in Q3 [1] - The company plans to balance product categories while continuously investing in new IP exposure and growth, ensuring a consistent consumer experience across different channels [1] Group 3: Organizational Changes and Global Expansion - In April, the company underwent its largest organizational restructuring in five years to enhance its global layout, which included adding new regions and strengthening its middle office [2] - The restructuring aims to promote globalization and streamline decision-making processes, allowing for more efficient responses to local market needs [2] - The overseas market revenue saw substantial growth, with the Asia-Pacific region increasing by 170% to 175%, the Americas by 1265% to 1270%, and Europe and other regions by 735% to 740% [2] Group 4: Future Outlook - The CEO expressed confidence in the growth of the North American and Asia-Pacific markets, projecting that their sales could match last year's domestic sales despite having fewer stores [3] - The company's ongoing globalization efforts have begun to yield positive results, indicating a successful initial phase of international expansion [3]

Core Viewpoint - The Hong Kong stock market experienced significant net inflows from northbound trading, with a total net buy of 15.822 billion HKD on October 16, 2023, indicating strong investor interest in specific stocks [1]. Group 1: Northbound Trading Activity - Northbound trading saw a net buy of 8.672 billion HKD through the Shanghai Stock Connect and 7.15 billion HKD through the Shenzhen Stock Connect [1]. - The stocks with the highest net inflows included Zijin Mining International (02259), Xiaomi Group-W (01810), and Alibaba-W (09988) [1]. - The stocks with the highest net outflows were Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corporation (00981), GigaDevice Semiconductor (02367), and Tencent (00700) [1]. Group 2: Individual Stock Performance - Alibaba-W (09988) had a net buy of 2.696 billion HKD, with total buy and sell amounts of 4.816 billion HKD, reflecting a net inflow of 575 million HKD [2]. - Xiaomi Group-W (01810) recorded a net buy of 2.508 billion HKD, with total buy and sell amounts of 3.995 billion HKD, resulting in a net inflow of 1.02 billion HKD [2]. - Zijin Mining International (02259) received a net buy of 1.843 billion HKD, with total buy and sell amounts of 1.949 billion HKD [5]. - GigaDevice Semiconductor (02367) faced a net sell of 3.80 billion HKD, with total buy and sell amounts of 1.422 billion HKD [4]. - Tencent (00700) experienced a net sell of 2.35 billion HKD, with total buy and sell amounts of 3.020 billion HKD [2]. Group 3: Market Insights and Future Projections - Zijin Mining International is expected to achieve a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 20% in production from 2025 to 2027, increasing total output from 45 tons to 65 tons, which could lead to a 30% CAGR in profits [5]. - Xiaomi's stock price volatility is influenced by various news events, with expectations of a decline in gross profit margin (GPM) in the second half of the year [5]. - Alibaba's future capital expenditure forecast has been raised to 460 billion HKD, with projected year-on-year growth rates for cloud revenue of 31%, 38%, and 37% over the next three quarters [5]. - Kangfang Biologics (09926) received a net buy of 602 million HKD following the acceptance of its clinical research results for a new drug in a top medical journal [6]. - Pop Mart (09992) saw a net buy of 470 million HKD, with expectations of strong sales growth from new IPs [7].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" based on the strong performance and growth potential observed in the report [1]. Core Insights - The company is expected to continue its strong operational trends in Q4 with new store openings, seasonal demand, and product launches, indicating sustained growth momentum [2]. - The overseas expansion is accelerating, with a target of 200 stores by the end of the year, reflecting a significant increase from 140 stores reported mid-year [2]. - The company's IP ecosystem and supply chain optimization are strengthening its competitive barriers, with successful performance from key IPs and new product launches expected to drive sales [2]. - The financial forecasts indicate substantial growth in revenue and net profit over the next few years, with projected net profits of 112.8 billion, 166.2 billion, and 200.3 billion for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [3][4]. Financial Summary - Revenue is projected to grow from 13.038 billion in 2024 to 59.496 billion in 2027, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 106.92% to 15.21% [3][4]. - The net profit is expected to increase significantly from 3.125 billion in 2024 to 20.032 billion in 2027, with growth rates of 189% and 21% in the respective years [3][4]. - Earnings per share (EPS) are forecasted to rise from 2.36 in 2024 to 14.92 in 2027, indicating strong profitability growth [3][4]. Key Financial Ratios - The company is expected to maintain a healthy return on equity (ROE) of 29.26% in 2024, increasing to 32.59% by 2027 [5]. - The debt-to-equity ratio is projected to decrease from 26.80% in 2024 to 19.27% in 2027, indicating improved financial stability [5]. - The current ratio is expected to improve from 3.63 in 2024 to 5.29 in 2027, reflecting strong liquidity [5].

Core Viewpoint - The recent decline in Pop Mart's stock price, which has dropped nearly 25% from its peak on August 26, is primarily driven by market concerns over the second-hand prices of certain popular products and the sustainability of their popularity. However, the company believes that second-hand prices are not a reasonable indicator of popularity, as the current price adjustments are mainly driven by supply expansion rather than changes in demand [1][2]. Group 1: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The fluctuation in the second-hand prices of Labubu is attributed to increased supply rather than a decline in popularity, as evidenced by stable or increasing prices for products not affected by capacity changes [2]. - The company maintains a leading position in the artist IP toy market, with exclusive brand positioning and control over supply, which allows for a highly expandable product lifecycle [2]. - The balance of supply and demand is crucial for enhancing fan experience and mitigating the impact of counterfeit products [2]. Group 2: Product Innovation and Pricing Strategy - Recent product launches, such as Mini Labubu, have generated significant fan engagement and strong sales performance in North America, showcasing the company's ability to blend product and social play [3]. - The company has demonstrated flexibility in pricing strategies, as seen with the price increase of SP plush toys to 159 yuan, indicating strong pricing power in the rubber plush category [3]. - Upcoming quarterly results are anticipated to be positive, driven by pre-sale shipments and new product launches, with Q4 expected to benefit from the overseas peak season and anniversary series [3]. Group 3: Long-term Growth Drivers - The company is expected to see substantial growth in 2026, driven by rapid capacity expansion in plush products and a low base in the first three quarters [4]. - The global commercial value of the company's largest IP, The Monsters, has significant growth potential, with the top five IPs showing strong momentum [4]. - The company plans to expand its overseas store count to over 180 by 2025, enhancing brand influence through flagship store openings [4]. Group 4: Financial Forecast and Valuation - The company has raised its adjusted net profit forecasts for 2025-2027 by 14%/12%/12% to 116 billion, 170 billion, and 220 billion yuan, respectively, driven by capacity expansion and product upgrades [4]. - The target price has been increased by 14% to 396 HKD, maintaining a "buy" rating based on the company's high growth potential and expanding global IP influence [4].