证券研究报告 公司研究 [Table_ReportType] 公司点评报告 [Table_StockAndRank] 泡泡玛特(9992.HK) 投资评级 上次评级 [Table_Author] 姜文镪 新消费行业首席分析师 执业编号：S1500524120004 邮箱：jiangwenqiang@cindasc.com 蔡昕妤 商社分析师 职业编号：S1500523060001 邮箱：caixinyu@cindasc.com 陆亚宁 新消费行业分析师 执业编号：S1500525030003 邮箱：luyaning@cindasc.com 信达证券股份有限公司 CINDA SECURITIES CO.,LTD 北京市西城区宣武门西大街甲127号金隅大厦B 座 邮编：100031 [Table_Title] 泡泡玛特：Q4 开店+旺季+新品+内容，经营 趋势持续强势 [Table_ReportDate] 2025 年 9 月 19 日 [Table_S 二手市场价格波动属合理回调，产品依然供不应求 ummary] 。Mini Labubu 多平台均 处于售罄状态，印证需求持续旺盛。Labubu3.0、mini ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that Chinese brands are entering a "global growth" phase, transitioning from initial export through processing to establishing brand awareness and localizing in overseas markets [1][3][4] - The growth of Chinese brands is driven by both internal and external factors, including international policy uncertainties and changing global consumer demands [4][7] - Chinese companies need to innovate products, upgrade technology, and enhance brand resilience to achieve global value growth [7][10] Group 2 - External factors affecting global growth include international policy uncertainties and changes in global supply and demand relationships [9][10] - Recent events, such as anti-dumping investigations by the EU and reciprocal tariff demands from the US, highlight the need for Chinese brands to strengthen their influence and pricing power in international markets [9][10] - The global consumer market is evolving, with increasing demands for personalization and scenario-based needs, requiring Chinese companies to enhance their brand awareness and consumer service capabilities [10][21] Group 3 - Internal drivers for global growth include national initiatives and self-driven efforts by enterprises, such as the "China Manufacturing 2025" initiative promoting digital and intelligent transformation [12][53] - Chinese companies are achieving technological breakthroughs and innovations in certain sectors, which need to be translated into brand premium through global expansion [12][53] - The global expansion paths for Chinese companies vary, with strategies including price advantages in Southeast Asia, entering North America first, and gradually expanding to other regions [19][21] Group 4 - The integration of the entire industry chain is essential for efficiency and resilience, as seen in the Chinese electric vehicle sector, which is moving from "selling globally" to "rooting globally" [52][60] - Localized production bases are being established in regions like Thailand, Indonesia, and Europe, enhancing the collaboration of the entire supply chain [60][61] - The ability to control the supply chain is crucial for brand success in the global market, as companies must adapt to diverse and complex market conditions [66][67] Group 5 - The rise of content e-commerce, exemplified by platforms like TikTok, is reshaping how brands engage with consumers, emphasizing social connections and community-driven marketing [67][72] - "Omni-channel management" is becoming a core competitive advantage, allowing companies to integrate data across platforms for better marketing and operational decisions [72][73] - Emerging technologies like AI are driving significant improvements in product capabilities and supply chain optimization, enhancing the overall competitiveness of Chinese brands [73][76] Group 6 - Service ecosystems are increasingly important for Chinese companies going global, as they require specialized capabilities in areas like cloud services, logistics, and digital marketing [81][85] - Payment systems, influencer marketing, and cloud services are critical components of the global expansion strategy for Chinese brands [85][87][92] - The collaboration between service providers and brands is expected to deepen, leading to enhanced growth effects for both parties [81][84]

Group 1: Market Overview - Northbound capital recorded a net purchase of HKD 25.89 billion in the Hong Kong stock market, with HK Stock Connect (Shanghai) net buying HKD 8.12 billion and HK Stock Connect (Shenzhen) net buying HKD 17.77 billion [1] - The most net bought stocks included Meituan-W (03690), SMIC (00981), and China Construction Bank (00939) [1] Group 2: Net Buying and Selling Details - Meituan-W (03690) received a net inflow of HKD 7.85 billion, with a focus on consolidating operations in key regions and expanding its flash purchase and supermarket services [6] - SMIC (00981) saw a net inflow of HKD 7.23 billion amid reports of potential changes in U.S. technology export policies affecting major chip manufacturers [6] - China Construction Bank (00939) had a net inflow of HKD 6.93 billion, supported by favorable dividend yields compared to A-shares [6] - Xinda Biopharmaceutical (01801) received a net inflow of HKD 5.99 billion due to its ADC product being included in breakthrough therapy designations [7] - Pop Mart (09992) had a net inflow of HKD 5.26 billion, attributed to improved supply chain capabilities and sales management [7] Group 3: Net Selling Highlights - Xiaomi Group-W (01810) faced a net outflow of HKD 15.51 billion, with analysts noting potential risks from macroeconomic conditions and slower EV demand growth [9] - Alibaba-W (09988) experienced a net outflow of HKD 7.51 billion, following its merger of Ele.me and Fliggy into its e-commerce division, which was seen as a move to enhance operational efficiency [8] - Tencent (00700) had a net outflow of HKD 9.44 billion, reflecting broader market trends [9] - Shandong Molong (00568) and CNOOC (00883) were sold off due to declining oil prices amid geopolitical developments [8]

Group 1 - Huazhu Group responded to the incident involving a blood-stained HIV test kit found in a hotel wash bag, stating that they have taken serious action against the involved employee and are cooperating with police investigations [3] - Yuxin Technology announced that it has submitted an application for the issuance of overseas listed shares (H shares) and listing on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange [1] - Shanjin International plans to issue H shares and list on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, with the board authorizing management to initiate preparatory work for the issuance [2] Group 2 - Deloitte's report predicts a 14% year-on-year increase in the number of IPOs and financing amounts in the A-share market for the first half of 2025, estimating 50 new stocks and a total financing of 371 billion yuan [6] - Audi has reversed its previous plan to stop developing internal combustion engine vehicles by 2033, with no new timeline set for this transition [8] - Intel has appointed new engineering executives from major tech companies like Apple and Google to strengthen customer relations as part of its business revitalization plan [8] Group 3 - The European Court's legal advisor recommended rejecting Google's appeal regarding a 4.1 billion euro antitrust fine, which stems from Google's abuse of its dominant position in the mobile search market [9] - The Swiss National Bank has lowered interest rates to zero, raising concerns about a potential return to negative interest rates [11] - The Chinese Ministry of Commerce announced it will expedite the review of export license applications related to rare earths, emphasizing the importance of maintaining global supply chain stability [11]

Industry News - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and other departments held a video conference on enhancing the safety management of new energy vehicles, emphasizing the importance of long-termism and avoiding "involution" competition [8] - The Beijing Municipal Committee of the Communist Party of China issued support measures for the high-quality development of the gaming and esports industry, offering rewards up to 30 million yuan for projects that enhance R&D efficiency through computing power, model deployment, and data governance [8] - The National Narcotics Control Office announced the inclusion of 12 new psychoactive substances, including N-ethylhexedrone, into regulatory control to strengthen monitoring and prevent abuse [8] - The photovoltaic industry is expected to see a significant reduction in production in the third quarter, with operating rates projected to decrease by 10%-15% compared to the previous quarter, and low-price sales will undergo auditing [9] - The semiconductor sector is anticipated to experience a comprehensive recovery by 2025, with global semiconductor sales showing year-on-year and month-on-month growth in April [30] Company News - Taiji Co., Ltd. announced a change in its actual controller to the Hubei State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission, leading to the resumption of its stock trading [12] - Lianchuang Optoelectronics reported strong demand for drone countermeasure equipment in the Middle East and is actively engaging with potential local customers and partners [13] - Shengnuo Bio announced an expected net profit increase of 254%-332% year-on-year for the first half of the year [15] - Yuncong Technology stated that its multi-modal AI technology for live detection and dynamic verification can be applied to stablecoin wallet scenarios [16] - Zhongyan Chemical announced plans to agree to a capital reduction by shareholders of Zhongyan Alkali Industry, which is expected to constitute a major asset restructuring [17]

泡泡玛特(09992.HK)跌超5%，股价回落至250港元下方，成交额超29亿港元。Labubu3.0首次开启线上预 售，黄牛回收价格腰斩。 ...

Market Performance in Hong Kong - ZhongAn Online (06060) surged over 8%, with a cumulative increase of over 50% this month, benefiting from stablecoin legislation that positively impacts its virtual asset business [1] - Education stocks collectively rose, with China Education Group (0839) up over 5% and New Oriental (9901) up over 2% [1] - Kingsoft (03888) fell over 6% as Q1 revenue missed expectations [1] - Export stocks strengthened, with Shenzhou International (02313) rising nearly 5% amid a U.S. federal court blocking Trump's tariff policy [1] - Gold stocks collectively declined as international gold prices fell to $3,250 [1] - Apple-related stocks rose collectively, with AAC Technologies (02018), Q Technology (01478), and Sunny Optical (02382) each up over 2% [1] - Junshi Biosciences (01877) increased over 6% after receiving approval for two new indications, accelerating clinical progress of its pipeline [1] - XPeng Motors-W (09868) rose over 6% as the new MONA M03 version saw over 12,000 pre-orders within an hour [1] - Pop Mart (09992) increased over 4% as Labubu 3.0 sparked a global phenomenon, with its brand POPOP set to open its first official store [1] - CRO concept stocks strengthened, with WuXi Biologics rising over 8% and WuXi AppTec and Zai Lab each up over 4% following the U.S. International Trade Court's decision to halt Trump's tariffs [1] - Hongteng Precision (06088) rose over 6% as NVIDIA's data center revenue surged over 70%, resolving previous overheating issues [1] - Tongcheng Travel (00780) increased over 4% with accelerated net profit growth in Q1, as institutions remain optimistic about OTA platform performance [1] - WuXi AppTec-B (02126) surged over 20% after the acceptance of a new indication application for Regorafenib [1] Market Performance in U.S. - NVIDIA (NVDA.US) rose nearly 6% after reporting strong Q1 results and projecting shipments of Blackwell Ultra for Q2 of fiscal 2026 [2] - AI software provider C3.ai (AI.US) soared over 12% with Q4 revenue growth of 26% year-over-year, reaching $109 million [2] - Software giant Salesforce (CRM.US) rose nearly 6% after reporting Q1 revenue of $9.8 billion, an 8% year-over-year increase, and raising its full-year revenue guidance [2] - HP Inc. (HPQ.US) fell nearly 15% after lowering its full-year earnings forecast due to increased costs from tariffs, reporting Q2 net revenue of $13.22 billion [2] - Spero Therapeutics (SPRO.US) surged 245% after successful Phase 3 trial results for a urinary tract infection drug [2] - JZXN (JZXN.US) jumped nearly 25% as the company plans to acquire 1,000 bitcoins within the next year [2] - Joby Aviation (JOBY.US) soared over 28% after receiving a $250 million investment from Toyota, which had previously committed a total of $500 million [2] Additional U.S. Market Highlights - Abercrombie & Fitch (ANF.US) rose nearly 15% as its fiscal outlook indicated that tariffs would not impact sales [3] - ZTO Express (ZTO.US) rose over 4.5% with a Q1 net profit growth of 40.9% [5] - Manbang Group (YMM.US) initially rose over 4%, closing up 1.7%, with Q1 operating profit increasing 1.7 times [5] - Tempus AI (TEM.US) fell nearly 20% after a short-seller report questioned its AI capabilities [5]

Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley has raised the target price for Pop Mart (09992.HK) by 9.8% to HKD 224, citing strong global demand for Labubu 3.0, particularly in the U.S. market, as a key growth driver [1] Group 1 - The strong global demand for Labubu 3.0, especially in the U.S., is expected to facilitate the opening of new stores in the U.S. and other regions, becoming a major growth driver for the next two years [1] - The rapid establishment of Pop Mart's supply chain in Vietnam has exceeded expectations, with most goods exported to the U.S. expected to ship from Vietnam by Q3 this year, potentially reducing the impact of tariffs on profit margins [1] - New products in the U.S. have seen price increases of 12% to 27%, which have been well-received by consumers, indicating that the long-term increase in average product prices could enhance profit margins for the U.S. business as tariff impacts diminish [1]