Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the report industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints - Nickel prices are expected to experience wide - range fluctuations due to the information game between Indonesia and the Philippines [1]. - For stainless steel, there are frequent maintenance and production cuts in February, and the cost support center has shifted upward [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Data**: - The closing price of the Shanghai Nickel main contract is 139,610, with a change compared to T - 1 of 250, T - 5 of 5,180, T - 10 of - 7,860, T - 22 of 1,160, and T - 66 of 20,900 [1]. - The closing price of the stainless - steel main contract is 13,970, with a change compared to T - 1 of - 70, T - 5 of 160, T - 10 of - 615, T - 22 of 180, and T - 66 of 1,545 [1]. - The trading volume of the Shanghai Nickel main contract is 433,838, with a change compared to T - 1 of - 84,787, T - 5 of - 148,686, T - 10 of - 349,437, T - 22 of - 843,852, and T - 66 of 335,590 [1]. - The trading volume of the stainless - steel main contract is 220,012, with a change compared to T - 1 of - 43,037, T - 5 of - 110,145, T - 10 of - 228,480, T - 22 of - 127,542, and T - 66 of 80,309 [1]. - **Industry Chain Data**: - The price of 1 imported nickel is 140,750, with a change compared to T - 1 of 3,000, T - 5 of 5,550, T - 10 of - 3,900, T - 22 of - 250, and T - 66 of 21,750 [1]. - The ex - factory price of 8 - 12% high - nickel pig iron is 1,052, with a change compared to T - 1 of 9, T - 5 of 14, T - 10 of - 3, T - 22 of 71, and T - 66 of 143 [1]. - The price of 304/2B coil - rough edge (Wuxi) Hongwang/Beibuwan is 14,100, with a change compared to T - 1 of 0, T - 5 of 0, T - 10 of - 300, T - 22 of 200, and T - 66 of 1,275 [1]. - The price of battery - grade nickel sulfate is 31,950, with a change compared to T - 1 of 0, T - 5 of - 300, T - 10 of - 1,450, T - 22 of - 900, and T - 66 of 3,505 [1]. 3.2 Macro and Industry News - Indonesia has suspended issuing new smelting licenses through the OSS platform, targeting projects producing "restricted products" such as Nickel matte, MHP, FeNi, and NPI [1]. - Indonesia's energy and mineral resources ministry will revise the benchmark price formula for nickel ore products in early 2026, including treating cobalt as an independent commodity for royalty collection [2]. - Some Indonesian mining companies face potential fines of about 80.2 trillion Indonesian rupiah for illegal occupation of forest land, and the final amount may be lower [2]. - The KPPU found monopoly behavior in the port warehousing and logistics of the IMIP park in Indonesia, and the park is in negotiation [3]. - Indonesia's energy and mineral resources ministry has started approving the 2026 mining work plan and budget (RKAB) for some companies [3]. - The Solway Investment Group plans to restart its nickel mine in Guatemala in a few months due to the rebound of nickel prices and the lifting of restrictions [3]. - The approved nickel ore production quota in Indonesia in 2026 is between 2.6 billion and 2.7 billion tons, and PT WBN received a preliminary notice to submit an RKAB [4]. - Philippine miners claim that the export volume of nickel ore to Indonesia may double [5]. 3.3 Trend Intensity - Nickel trend intensity is 0, and stainless - steel trend intensity is 0, indicating a neutral view [6].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the document. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The news from Indonesia has caused new disturbances in the nickel market, and the departure of funds before the holiday restricts the price elasticity of nickel. In the stainless - steel market, there are frequent maintenance and production cuts in February, and the cost support has shifted the price center upwards [1]. - The trend strength of nickel and stainless steel is both rated as 1, indicating a neutral outlook [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Data**: - The closing price of the Shanghai Nickel main contract is 133,350, down 1,170 from the previous day. The closing price of the stainless - steel main contract is 13,740, up 5 from the previous day [1]. - The trading volume of the Shanghai Nickel main contract is 281,436, a decrease of 135,669 from the previous day. The trading volume of the stainless - steel main contract is 140,567, a decrease of 61,676 from the previous day [1]. - **Industrial Chain Data**: - The price of 1 imported nickel is 134,000, down 600 from the previous day. The Russian nickel premium is - 100, unchanged from the previous day [1]. - The price of 8 - 12% high - nickel pig iron (ex - factory price) is 1,041, up 1 from the previous day. The price difference between nickel plate and high - nickel iron is 299, down 7 from the previous day [1]. - The price of 304/2B coil - rough edge (Wuxi) Hongwang/Beibuwan is 14,100, unchanged from the previous day. The price of 304/2B coil - trimmed edge (Wuxi) Taiyuan Iron and Steel/Zhangpu is 14,650, unchanged from the previous day [1]. - The price of battery - grade nickel sulfate is 31,950, unchanged from the previous day. The nickel sulfate premium is 2,470, up 132 from the previous day [1]. 3.2 Macro and Industry News - Indonesia has suspended issuing new smelting licenses through the OSS platform, targeting projects producing "restricted products" such as Nickel matte, MHP, FeNi, and NPI [1]. - China's Ministry of Commerce and General Administration of Customs have decided to implement export license management for some steel products starting from January 1, 2026 [2]. - Indonesia's Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources will revise the benchmark price formula for nickel ore commodities in early 2026, including treating cobalt as an independent commodity and levying royalties [2]. - Indonesia plans to significantly reduce the 2026 nickel ore production target from 379 million tons to 250 million tons [4]. - Some Indonesian mines are facing potential fines of about 80.2 trillion Indonesian rupiah for illegal occupation of forest land, and the final fine may be lower [4]. - Indonesia will adjust the 2026 nickel production quota according to industry demand, with the production likely to be around 250 - 260 million tons [4]. - The KPPU found monopoly behavior in the port storage and logistics of the IMIP park in Indonesia, and the park is in negotiation with the KPPU [4]. - A Singapore - flagged bulk carrier carrying about 50,000 tons of nickel ore sank on its way from the Philippines to Yangjiang, China [5]. - Indonesia's Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources has started approving the 2026 mining work plans and budgets (RKAB) [5]. - The Solway Investment Group plans to restart its nickel mine business in Guatemala in a few months due to the rebound of nickel prices and the lifting of restrictions [5]. - Indonesia's BKPM disclosed that ITSS, a subsidiary of Tsingshan Holding Group, has never submitted an investment activity report, and its actual investment amount is not registered [6].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The nickel market is affected by pre - holiday capital outflows, and the medium - term contradiction lies in Indonesia; the stainless - steel market has frequent maintenance and production cuts in February, and the cost support center has shifted upward [1] - The trend intensities of both nickel and stainless steel are neutral, with a value of 0 [7] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Data**: The closing price of the Shanghai nickel main contract is 131,840, down 2,590 compared to T - 1; the closing price of the stainless - steel main contract is 13,670, down 140 compared to T - 1. The trading volume of the Shanghai nickel main contract is 554,444, down 28,080 compared to T - 1; the trading volume of the stainless - steel main contract is 287,657, down 42,500 compared to T - 1 [1] - **Industrial Chain Data**: The price of 1 imported nickel is 130,900, down 4,300 compared to T - 1; the price of 8 - 12% high - nickel pig iron (ex - factory price) is 1,040, up 3 compared to T - 1. The price of 304/2B roll - rough edge (Wuxi) Hongwang/Beibuwan is 14,100, unchanged compared to T - 1; the price of 304/2B roll - trimmed edge (Wuxi) Taiyuan Iron and Steel/Zhangpu is 14,650, unchanged compared to T - 1 [1] 3.2 Macro and Industry News - The Indonesian government has suspended issuing new smelting licenses through the OSS platform for projects producing "restricted products" such as Nickel matte, MHP, FeNi, and NPI [1] - The Chinese Ministry of Commerce and the General Administration of Customs have decided to implement export license management for some steel products starting from January 1, 2026 [2] - The Indonesian Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources will revise the benchmark price formula for nickel ore commodities in early 2026, and will start treating cobalt as an independent commodity and collecting royalties [2] - The Indonesian government plans to significantly reduce the 2026 nickel ore production target from 379 million tons to 250 million tons [4] - Some Indonesian mines are facing potential fines of about 80.2 trillion Indonesian rupiah for illegal occupation of forest land, and are negotiating with the government [4] - The Indonesian Minister of Energy and Mineral Resources said that the 2026 nickel ore production quota will be adjusted according to industry demand, and the production may be around 250 - 260 million tons [4] - The KPPU found monopoly behavior in the port storage and logistics of the IMIP park in Indonesia, and the park is negotiating with the KPPU [4] - A Singapore - flagged bulk carrier carrying about 50,000 tons of nickel ore sank on its way from the Philippines to Yangjiang, China [5] - The Indonesian Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources has started approving the 2026 mining work plan and budget (RKAB) [5] - The Solway Investment Group plans to restart its nickel mine business in Guatemala in a few months due to the rebound in nickel prices and the lifting of restrictions [5] - The Indonesian investment department said that the Indonesian Qing Shan Stainless Steel Co., Ltd. under Tsingshan Holding Group has never submitted an investment activity report [6]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core View of the Report - The situation of nickel - related events in Indonesia is uncertain, and there is a game between hedging and speculative positions in the nickel market. The concerns about nickel mines in Indonesia have intensified, and the rising price of nickel - iron supports the center of the stainless - steel market [2] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Data**: The closing price of the Shanghai Nickel main contract was 144,370, down 1,740 from T - 1; the closing price of the stainless - steel main contract was 14,465, down 75 from T - 1. The trading volume of the Shanghai Nickel main contract was 404,592, a decrease of 118,804 from T - 1, and that of the stainless - steel main contract was 454,242, a decrease of 25,750 from T - 1 [2] - **Industrial Chain Data**: The price of 1 imported nickel was 142,900, down 2,050 from T - 1; the ex - factory price of 8 - 12% high - nickel pig iron was 1,054, up 1 from T - 1; the price of red clay nickel ore 1.5% (Philippines CIF) was 59, unchanged from T - 1 [2] 3.2 Macro and Industry News - Indonesia has suspended issuing new smelting licenses through the OSS platform for projects producing Nickel matte, MHP, FeNi, and NPI [2] - China's Ministry of Commerce and General Administration of Customs have decided to implement export license management for some steel products from January 1, 2026 [3] - Indonesia's energy and mineral resources department will revise the benchmark price formula for nickel ore products in early 2026, and will levy royalties on cobalt as an independent commodity [3] - Indonesia plans to cut the 2026 nickel ore production target from 379 million tons to 250 million tons [5] - Some Indonesian mines may face fines of about 80.2 trillion Indonesian rupiah for illegal occupation of forest land, and are negotiating with the government [5] - Indonesian officials said that nickel production in 2026 will be adjusted according to industry demand and smelter production capacity, possibly around 250 - 260 million tons [5] - The KPPU found monopoly behavior in the port storage and logistics of the IMIP park in Indonesia, and the park is negotiating with the KPPU [5] - A Singapore - flagged bulk carrier carrying about 50,000 tons of nickel ore sank on its way to Yangjiang, China [6] - Indonesia's energy and mineral resources department has started to approve the 2026 mining work plan and budget (RKAB) [6] 3.3 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of nickel is 0, and that of stainless steel is 0, indicating a neutral outlook for both [7]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - The situation of the Indonesian nickel - related events is undetermined, with a game between hedging and speculative positions in the nickel market. The concerns about nickel ore in Indonesia have intensified, and the rising price of ferronickel supports the center of the stainless - steel market [2] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Data**: The closing price of the Shanghai nickel main contract was 145,380, down 2,630 compared to T - 1; the closing price of the stainless - steel main contract was 14,645, down 80 compared to T - 1. The trading volume of the Shanghai nickel main contract was 718,003, down 34,837 compared to T - 1; the trading volume of the stainless - steel main contract was 555,399, up 67,119 compared to T - 1 [2] - **Industrial Chain Data**: The price of 1 imported nickel was 150,800, up 6,000 compared to T - 1; the ex - factory price of 8 - 12% high - nickel pig iron was 1,050, up 8 compared to T - 1. The price of 304/2B coil - rough edge (Wuxi) Hongwang/Beibuwan was 14,550, up 100 compared to T - 1; the price of 304/2B coil - trimmed edge (Wuxi) Taigang/Zhangpu was 15,050, up 100 compared to T - 1 [2] 3.2 Macro and Industry News - The Indonesian government has suspended issuing new smelting licenses through the OSS platform, targeting projects producing "restricted products" such as Nickel matte, MHP, FeNi, and NPI [2] - China's Ministry of Commerce and General Administration of Customs have decided to implement export license management for some steel products, effective from January 1, 2026 [3] - The Indonesian government plans to revise the benchmark price formula for nickel ore products in early 2026, and will start treating cobalt as an independent commodity and levy royalties [3] - The Indonesian government plans to significantly reduce the 2026 nickel ore production target from 379 million tons to 250 million tons [5] - Some Indonesian mines are facing potential fines of about 80.2 trillion Indonesian rupiah for illegal occupation of forest land, and are negotiating with the government [5] - The Indonesian energy and mineral resources minister said that the 2026 nickel production quota will be adjusted according to industry demand, and the output may be around 250 - 260 million tons [5] - The KPPU found monopoly behavior in the port storage and logistics of the IMIP park in Indonesia, and the park is negotiating with the KPPU [5] - A Singapore - flagged bulk carrier carrying about 50,000 tons of nickel ore sank on its way from the Philippines to Yangjiang, Guangdong, China [6] 3.3 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of nickel is 0, and the trend intensity of stainless steel is 0, both indicating a neutral state [7]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The situation in Indonesia regarding nickel is uncertain, with a game between hedging and speculative positions in the nickel market; concerns about nickel ore in Indonesia are intensifying, and the rising price of nickel iron is supporting the center of the stainless - steel market [1] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Fundamental Tracking - Nickel and stainless - steel futures: The closing price of the Shanghai Nickel main contract is 148,010, the stainless - steel main contract is 14,725; the trading volume of the Shanghai Nickel main contract is 752,840, and the stainless - steel main contract is 488,280 [1] - Nickel industry chain: The price of 1 imported nickel is 144,800, the price of 8 - 12% high - nickel pig iron is 1,043; in the stainless - steel sector, the 304/2B roll - rough edge (Wuxi) is 14,450, and battery - grade nickel sulfate is 32,800 [1] Macro and Industry News - Indonesia has suspended issuing new smelting licenses for certain nickel - related products through the OSS platform [1] - China's Ministry of Commerce and General Administration of Customs will implement export license management for some steel products starting from January 1, 2026 [2] - Indonesia plans to revise the benchmark price formula for nickel ore products and levy royalties on cobalt [2] - Indonesia may significantly reduce the 2026 nickel ore production target from 3.79 billion tons to 2.5 billion tons [4] - Some Indonesian mining companies may face fines of about 80.2 trillion Indonesian rupiah for illegal land occupation [4] - Indonesian officials said they will adjust nickel production according to industry demand and smelter capacity, with production likely between 250 million and 260 million tons [4] - The KPPU found monopoly behavior in the port storage and logistics of the IMIP park in Indonesia, and the park is in negotiation [4] - A ship carrying about 50,000 tons of nickel ore sank on the way from the Philippines to Guangdong, China [5] Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of nickel is 0, and that of stainless steel is 0, indicating a neutral outlook [6]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View The nickel market is in a game between the burden of real - world pressure and the narrative of cyclical transformation, with wide - range fluctuations. The stainless - steel market is dragged down by the real fundamentals, and the disk mainly plays on Indonesian policies [1]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Data**: - For nickel futures, the closing price of the Shanghai nickel main contract is 147,720, the trading volume is 1,132,256. For stainless - steel futures, the closing price of the main contract is 13,885, and the trading volume is 547,902 [1]. - **Industrial Chain Data**: - In the nickel industry chain, the price of 1 imported nickel is 145,850, the price of 8 - 12% high - nickel pig iron (ex - factory price) is 948, and the price of red clay nickel ore 1.5% (Philippines CIF) is 55. In the stainless - steel aspect, the price of 304/2B roll - rough edge (Wuxi) is 13,900, and the price of high - carbon ferrochrome (FeCr55 Inner Mongolia) is 8,200 [1]. 3.2. Macro and Industry News - Indonesia has suspended issuing new smelting licenses through the OSS platform for projects producing "restricted products" such as Nickel matte, MHP, FeNi, and NPI [1]. - China's Ministry of Commerce and General Administration of Customs will implement export license management for some steel products starting from January 1, 2026 [2]. - Indonesia's ESDM will revise the benchmark price formula for nickel ore commodities in early 2026, and will treat cobalt as an independent commodity and levy royalties [2]. - Indonesia plans to significantly reduce the 2026 nickel ore production target from 3.79 billion tons to 2.5 billion tons [4]. - Some Indonesian mining companies may face potential fines of about 80.2 trillion Indonesian rupiah for illegal occupation of forest land, and are negotiating with the government to reduce the fines [4]. 3.3. Trend Intensity The trend intensity of nickel is 0, and that of stainless - steel is 0, with the range of trend intensity being integers in the [-2, 2] interval [4].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The fundamentals of refined nickel have undergone a structural shift, but the current and expected overall surplus still restricts the upside of nickel prices. From the end of this year to the first quarter of next year, attention should be paid to the impact of hidden restocking and news from Indonesia. Short - term short - selling at low levels is not recommended, and opportunities for short - selling on rallies in the medium - to - long - term can be considered, combined with options for upside risk protection [1]. - The fundamentals of stainless steel are in a situation of weak supply and demand, and the valuation range is anchored by costs and profits. The steel price is expected to fluctuate at a low level in the short term. Attention should also be paid to the policy risks from Indonesia from the end of this year to the first quarter of next year [2]. Summary by Related Catalogs Nickel Market - **Fundamentals**: Refined nickel is moving towards a pattern of weak supply and demand. The demand for corrosion - resistant alloys is under pressure. Many enterprises have shifted to nickel sulfate production, and the slope of refined nickel inventory accumulation has slowed down, but the overall surplus and the expectation of wet - process production may still drag down nickel prices. Attention should be paid to hidden restocking expectations and news risks from Indonesia [1]. - **Inventory**: This week, China's social refined nickel inventory increased by 1,729 tons to 56,707 tons. LME nickel inventory decreased by 84 tons to 253,032 tons [3]. Stainless Steel Market - **Fundamentals**: The supply and demand of stainless steel are both weak. The production schedule in December decreased to 3.16 million tons, with a cumulative year - on - year increase of 2% and a month - on - month decrease of 8%. The cost center has shifted upward, and the steel price is expected to fluctuate at a low level in the short term [2]. - **Inventory**: On November 30, SMM nickel - iron inventory was 29,346 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3%. In November, SMM stainless steel factory inventory was 1.588 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 6% and a month - on - month increase of 1%. On December 11, the total social inventory of stainless steel decreased by 1.55% week - on - week [5]. New Energy Sector - **Inventory**: On December 12, the inventory days of upstream, downstream, and integrated production lines of SMM nickel sulfate changed by +1, 0, 0 month - on - month to 5, 9, 7 days respectively. On December 4, the precursor inventory increased by 0.4 week - on - week to 12.8 days. On December 11, the ternary material inventory remained flat at 6.9 days week - on - week [4][5]. Market News - In Indonesia, the forestry working group took over a 148 - hectare nickel mining area of PT Weda Bay Nickel, which is expected to affect a monthly nickel ore production of about 600 metal tons. China suspended an unofficial subsidy for imported copper and nickel from Russia. The Indonesian Energy and Mineral Resources Ministry imposed sanctions on 190 mining companies. The Indonesian government suspended the issuance of new smelting licenses for some products. Some nickel wet - process projects in Indonesian industrial parks will reduce production due to safety inspections [6][8]. - The US President Trump claimed to impose an additional 100% tariff on China and implement export controls on "all key software". New York Fed President John Williams and Fed Governor Stephen Miran made dovish remarks, increasing the probability of a 25 - basis - point interest rate cut in December. China's Ministry of Commerce and General Administration of Customs will implement export license management for some steel products starting from January 1, 2026 [7][8]. Weekly Key Data Tracking - The closing price of the main contract of Shanghai nickel was 115,590, with a change of - 280 compared to the previous day. The closing price of the main contract of stainless steel was 12,565, with a change of +65 compared to the previous day [10].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided regarding the industry investment rating in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - Steel prices are under pressure and fluctuating at a low level, with the nickel market also affected by various factors such as policy changes and production adjustments in Indonesia [1]. - The trend intensity for nickel is +1, and for stainless steel is also +1, indicating a moderately bullish outlook [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Nickel and Stainless Steel Futures Data**: The closing price of the Shanghai nickel main contract was 114,050, down 1,330 compared to the previous day; the closing price of the stainless - steel main contract was 12,290, up 1 compared to the previous day. The trading volume of the Shanghai nickel main contract was 138,203, and that of the stainless - steel main contract was 233,924 [1]. - **Nickel - related Product Prices**: The price of 1 imported nickel was 115,000, down 1,600 compared to the previous day; the price of 8 - 12% high - nickel pig iron (ex - factory price) was 891, down 4 compared to the previous day [1]. - **Stainless Steel Product Prices**: The price of 304/2B coil - rough edge (Wuxi) Hongwang/Beibuwan was 12,675, up 200 compared to the previous day; the price of 304/2B coil - trimmed edge (Wuxi) Taiyuan Iron and Steel/Zhangpu was 13,250, unchanged compared to the previous day [1]. 3.2 Macro and Industry News - **Indonesia's Nickel Mining Policy**: The Indonesian forestry working group took over more than 148 hectares of the PT Weda Bay Nickel mining area, which is expected to affect nickel production by about 600 nickel metal tons per month. The Indonesian government also imposed sanctions on 190 mining companies, and the issuance of new smelting licenses for some nickel - related products has been suspended [1][2][4]. - **International Trade Policy**: China has suspended an unofficial subsidy for imported copper and nickel from Russia. Trump may impose an additional 100% tariff on China from November 1st and implement export controls on "all key software" [2][3]. - **Production Adjustment**: Some nickel wet - process projects in Indonesian industrial parks will reduce production in December, affecting about 6000 nickel metal tons of output [4]. - **Monetary Policy**: New York Fed President John Williams and Fed Governor Stephen Miran made dovish remarks, increasing the probability of a 25 - basis - point interest rate cut in December [4].