Group 1 - The report highlights that the black electrical appliance industry is adopting a more aggressive pricing strategy, particularly in the offline market, with significant price reductions observed from Q4 2024 to Q1 2025 [6][21][33] - Mini LED technology is experiencing rapid penetration, with a projected global shipment increase of 40% to 8.6 million units in 2025, driven by cost reduction pathways and structural upgrades in product offerings [7][9][55] - Major brands like Hisense and TCL are focusing on the Mini LED segment to enhance their market share in both global and high-end markets, with a notable increase in their product offerings [6][9][55] Group 2 - The report indicates that the pricing strategy for Mini LED products is significantly downward, with offline average prices dropping from nearly 20,000 yuan in December 2022 to approximately 11,500 yuan by April 2025 [9][36] - The competitive landscape in overseas markets, particularly North America and Eastern Europe, is intensifying, with local brands employing aggressive pricing strategies that have led to a decline in average prices [8][41] - The report suggests that the impact of the current pricing strategies on profitability for manufacturers is relatively limited due to the dual support of cost reduction and product structure upgrades [9][67]

Core Viewpoint - TrendForce's latest survey indicates that global TV brand shipments are expected to reach 92.5 million units in the first half of 2025, reflecting a 2% year-on-year increase, but the second half may face challenges due to various market factors [2]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The anticipated demand for the second half of 2025 may be pressured by high panel costs, which hinder brands from expanding promotional activities [2]. - Expected tariff adjustments could influence retail prices, leading consumers to make purchases earlier, with U.S. TV sales in the first half of 2025 showing a year-on-year increase of 2% to 3%, potentially pulling forward demand that would have been released in the second half [2]. - Domestic demand may face pressure due to changes in the market environment and policy adjustments, leading to a downward revision of the total shipment forecast for 2025 to 195.71 million units, a decrease of 1.1% year-on-year [2]. Group 2: Brand Performance - The top five TV brands in the first half of 2025 are Samsung, TCL, Hisense, LGE, and Xiaomi, collectively holding 65.6% of the market share [5]. - TCL and Hisense experienced significant shipment growth in the first half of 2025, with increases of 12.5% and 7.3% respectively, outperforming the market average and improving their market shares compared to 2024 [5]. - Vizio's shipments grew by 13% in the first half of 2025, the highest among all brands, and is expected to see over 30% annual growth due to its acquisition by Walmart [5]. Group 3: Technology Trends - Mini LED TV shipments are projected to increase by 67% year-on-year, reaching 12.9 million units, with TCL, Hisense, and Xiaomi expected to capture a combined market share of 62% [6]. - OLED technology is anticipated to account for approximately 3.4% of the global TV market by 2025, with Samsung raising its shipment target to 2 million units, leading to a 5.6% year-on-year increase in OLED TV shipments, capturing nearly 80% of the market share among the two major Korean brands [6]. - High refresh rate TVs (120Hz and above) are expected to see a year-on-year shipment growth of 24.4%, with an overall market penetration rate of 13.6% driven by policy support and brand upgrades [6].

Core Insights - The global TV brand shipment volume is projected to reach 92.5 million units in the first half of 2025, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 2% [1] - Mini LED TV shipments are expected to grow by 67% this year, reaching 12.9 million units, with TCL, Hisense, and Xiaomi collectively increasing their market share to 62% [1] - The overall TV shipment forecast for 2025 has been revised down to 195.71 million units, a decrease of 1.1% year-on-year [1] Brand Performance - Samsung's shipment volume remains stable at 16.55 million units for both 1H24 and 1H25, with a slight decline in market share from 18.2% to 17.9% [2] - TCL's shipments are projected to increase by 12.5% from 12.52 million units in 1H24 to 14.08 million units in 1H25, raising its market share from 13.8% to 15.2% [2] - Hisense is expected to see a 7.3% increase in shipments, from 12.88 million units in 1H24 to 13.82 million units in 1H25, with market share rising from 14.2% to 14.9% [2] - Vizio's shipments grew by 13% in the first half of the year, with an expected annual growth of over 30% due to its acquisition by Walmart [4] Market Trends - The penetration rate of Mini LED TVs is projected to be around 6.6%, with significant contributions from TCL, Hisense, and Xiaomi [1] - OLED technology is expected to account for approximately 3.4% of the global TV market in 2025, with Samsung raising its shipment target to 2 million units, leading to a 5.6% year-on-year increase in OLED TV shipments [4] - High refresh rate TVs (120Hz and above) are anticipated to see a year-on-year growth rate of 24.4%, with a market penetration rate of 13.6% [4] - The overall TV market is experiencing a structural upgrade driven by technology, with brands focusing on Mini LED, OLED, and high refresh rate products to enhance competitiveness [5]

Core Insights - The global TV brand shipment volume reached 92.5 million units in the first half of 2025, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 2% [2] - The overall shipment forecast for 2025 has been revised down to 195.71 million units, indicating a year-on-year decrease of 1.1% [2] Group 1: Market Performance - Major brands in the first half of 2025 included Samsung, TCL, Hisense, LGE, and Xiaomi, collectively holding a market share of 65.6% [6] - TCL and Hisense experienced significant growth in shipments, with increases of 12.5% and 7.3% respectively, outperforming the market average [7] - Vizio's shipments grew by 13% in the first half of 2025, with an expected annual growth of over 30% following its acquisition by Walmart [7] Group 2: Technology Trends - Mini LED TV shipments are projected to increase by 67% in 2025, reaching 12.9 million units, with TCL, Hisense, and Xiaomi expected to capture 62% of the market share [8] - OLED technology is anticipated to account for approximately 3.4% of the global TV market in 2025, with Samsung raising its shipment target to 2 million units, leading to a 5.6% annual growth in OLED shipments [8] - High refresh rate TVs (120Hz and above) are expected to see a 24.4% increase in shipments, with a market penetration rate of 13.6% driven by mid-to-high-end product demand [8]

Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage on TCL Electronics with a "Buy" rating [2][5]. Core Views - TCL Electronics is focusing on high-end MiniLED televisions to enhance its global brand strength, with expectations to surpass Samsung in global brand sales within three years [5]. - The company has set ambitious performance targets through stock incentive plans, aiming for significant profit growth in the coming years [5][36]. - The global black television market is shifting in favor of Chinese brands, with TCL positioned to benefit from this trend as competitors like Samsung and LG exit the LCD panel production market [5][63]. Financial Forecasts - Revenue projections for TCL Electronics are as follows: - 2024: 99,322 million HKD - 2025: 114,834 million HKD (growth of 15.6%) - 2026: 128,495 million HKD (growth of 11.9%) - 2027: 142,249 million HKD (growth of 10.7%) [2][5]. - Net profit forecasts are: - 2024: 1,759 million HKD - 2025: 2,378 million HKD (growth of 35.2%) - 2026: 2,878 million HKD (growth of 21.1%) - 2027: 3,463 million HKD (growth of 20.3%) [2][5]. Market Trends - The global television market is experiencing stable demand, with a notable increase in Mini LED technology adoption, expected to grow significantly in the coming years [49][50]. - The trend towards larger screen sizes is becoming mainstream, with a projected increase in demand for televisions over 80 inches [57]. - High refresh rate televisions are also seeing rapid growth, with expectations for significant increases in market share [60]. Competitive Landscape - The report highlights a shift in the competitive landscape, with Korean companies like Samsung and LG exiting the LCD panel market, which may benefit TCL and other Chinese brands [63][64]. - TCL's strategy of focusing on high-end products and large screens is expected to improve its market position against traditional competitors [5][63].

Core Viewpoint - The Japanese flat-panel TV market is experiencing growth, with June 2025 shipments showing a 6.7% increase compared to the same month last year, reaching 394,000 units, marking the second consecutive month of growth and the highest monthly shipment since December 2024 [1][3]. Group 1: TV Shipment Data - In June 2025, shipments of 60-inch and larger TVs increased significantly by 16.2% to 69,000 units, while shipments of 50-59 inch TVs slightly decreased by 0.5% to 122,000 units [3]. - The 4K TV segment saw a remarkable growth of 36.2% in June 2025, with shipments reaching 261,000 units, the highest monthly shipment since December 2024 [3]. - The share of 4K TVs in the overall flat-panel TV shipments reached 66.2% in June 2025, with a shipment value of 36.7 billion yen, accounting for 90.4% of the total flat-panel TV shipment value of 40.6 billion yen [3]. Group 2: OLED TV Performance - In contrast, OLED TV shipments in June 2025 decreased by 16.6% to 45,000 units, marking the 12th consecutive month of decline [3]. - The shipment value of OLED TVs in June 2025 was 9.8 billion yen [3]. Group 3: Overall Market Trends - For the first half of 2025 (January to June), the total flat-panel TV shipments in Japan decreased by 0.4% year-on-year to 2.112 million units, with 4K TV shipments slightly increasing by 0.4% to 1.07 million units, while OLED TV shipments plummeted by 42.3% to 138,000 units [3]. - The overall digital home appliance shipment value in June 2025 fell by 3.7% year-on-year to 92.2 billion yen, marking the eighth consecutive month of decline [4]. - The shipment value for flat-panel TVs and related imaging devices decreased by 4.8% to 47.9 billion yen, while audio-related devices and automotive AVC machines also experienced declines [4].

Group 1 - Samsung Electronics' operating profit guidance for Q2 2025 is expected to drop by 56% year-on-year, while LG Electronics' guidance is projected to decline by 47%, indicating a shift in pricing power towards Chinese panel manufacturers and a loss of influence in the global high-end market [1] - Samsung's video display division is estimated to see a 46% year-on-year decline in Q2 operating profit, recording only 113 billion KRW (approximately 600 million RMB), while LG Electronics anticipates a loss between 23.5 billion to 99 billion KRW (approximately 120 million to 520 million RMB), potentially marking one of its worst performances in recent years [1] Group 2 - The concentration of the industry is accelerating due to national subsidies, with the market share of the top four companies increasing from 82% before subsidies to 87% after [2] - The penetration rate of MiniLED TVs surged from 16% during the same period last year to over 40% during the 618 shopping festival, indicating a significant market shift [2] - The upstream panel industry is undergoing a consolidation, with TCL Huaxing completing the acquisition of LGD's Guangzhou panel factory and BOE acquiring a 30% stake in Rainbow Optoelectronics, leading to the top four manufacturers controlling nearly 70% of the market [2] Group 3 - Global high-end TV shipments increased by 44% year-on-year in Q1 2025, with sales revenue growing by 35%; Hisense's market share in high-end TV shipments rose from 14% to 20%, and TCL's share increased from 13% to 19%, surpassing LG [3] - Samsung's share in the high-end TV market fell from 39% to 28%, while LG's share dropped from 23% to 16%, resulting in a decline to fourth place [3] - The penetration of MiniLED TVs is expected to double to 16 million units in 2025, while OLED TV shipments are projected to remain stagnant at around 6 million units due to cost constraints [3]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a strong buy recommendation for Hisense, TCL Electronics, and Zhao Chi shares, highlighting their potential in the MiniLED market [2]. Core Insights - The report indicates that the MiniLED TV market is experiencing accelerated penetration due to national subsidies, leading to improved profitability for domestic brands. The market share of leading brands is increasing, while Korean brands are losing their competitive edge [1][6]. - The report emphasizes that the MiniLED penetration rate has significantly increased, with sales during the 618 shopping festival rising from 16% to over 40% year-on-year [6][15]. - The report suggests that the overall market for MiniLED TVs is expected to double in 2025, with a projected shipment of 16 million units globally [6]. Summary by Sections Competition: Market Concentration and MiniLED Penetration - The report notes that the domestic TV industry is entering a growth phase post-subsidy, with online retail sales increasing by 35% in Q4 2024 and 15% in H1 2025 [11]. - The concentration of the top four manufacturers (Hisense, TCL, Xiaomi, and Skyworth) has increased, with their combined market share rising from 82% to 87% post-subsidy [19][21]. Cost: Panel Price Stability - The report highlights that the panel price volatility has decreased, with major manufacturers controlling production to stabilize prices. The market share of domestic panel manufacturers has increased to nearly 70% [25][26]. - The cost structure is shifting, with the cost of panels decreasing as MiniLED technology becomes more prevalent, allowing brands to improve profitability [26]. Product: National Subsidies Driving MiniLED Growth - The report states that MiniLED TV shipments in 2024 are expected to reach 4.16 million units, a 352% increase year-on-year, with penetration rates rising from 2.5% to 11.6% [31]. - The report discusses the impact of national subsidies on MiniLED penetration, with rates expected to exceed 41% during the 2025 618 shopping festival [37]. Overseas: Domestic Brands Targeting High-End Market - The report indicates that domestic brands are making significant inroads into the high-end TV market, with Hisense and TCL increasing their market shares significantly in Q1 2025 [6]. - The report notes that the global high-end TV shipment volume increased by 44% year-on-year, with domestic brands surpassing Korean competitors [6].

Investment Rating - The report rates the black electrical appliances industry as "Overweight" [1][34]. Core Viewpoints - The black electrical appliances industry is currently in a window of demand recovery and technological upgrade, with global capacity layout, especially in Mexico and Vietnam, being a core strategy to address tariff challenges. Chinese brands have advantages in high-end positioning and cost control, which provide resilience to the industry. The recent tariff adjustments in Vietnam are expected to reduce uncertainties, with tariffs on major production bases for exports to the U.S. projected to be in the range of 10% to 40%, improving from previous pessimistic expectations of over 46% [3][34]. Summary by Sections 1. Core Logic - The recent tariff agreement with Vietnam, effective July 3, 2025, introduces a 20% export tariff and a 40% transshipment tariff, which, despite increasing costs, have been mitigated by the flexible capacity layout of leading companies. The global expansion of leading black electrical appliance brands continues, with an upward trend in market share for the "dual champions" [8]. 2. Current Global Market Status 2.1. Enhanced Global Competitiveness of the Dual Champions - The global market is dominated by Chinese black electrical appliance leaders, TCL Electronics and Hisense, who leverage technological and capacity advantages. The global TV market is expected to reverse its continuous decline in 2024, with significant growth in shipments of large-sized TVs (80 inches and above). In Q1 2025, shipments of high-end TVs (75 inches and above) surged by 79% year-on-year, with revenue increasing by 59% [9][34]. 2.2. Tariff Conflicts in the North American Market - The North American market accounts for approximately 17% of the global market share. The lack of domestic panel production in the U.S. means that black electrical appliance production relies entirely on imports. Tariff increases could lead to higher retail prices, potentially suppressing end demand, but the impact on leading companies is limited due to similar cost pressures across all brands [20][34]. 3. Resolution of Tariff Negotiations in Vietnam 3.1. Vietnam as a Key Production Base for Exports to the U.S. - The recent tariff negotiations with Vietnam, which began in April 2025 and concluded in July, have resulted in a significant reduction in tariffs, alleviating previous uncertainties. The agreement allows for a 20% export tariff and a 40% transshipment tariff, a notable improvement from earlier expectations of over 46% [30][34]. 3.2. Long-term Advantages of Globally Positioned Leading Brands - While uncertainties from tariffs have decreased, the long-term risk of fluctuating U.S. tariff policies remains. Brands with global production layouts are better positioned to navigate these challenges through flexible supply chain adjustments, enhancing their competitive edge [32][34]. 4. Investment Recommendations - The black electrical appliances industry is positioned for growth due to demand recovery and technological upgrades. The report recommends investing in leading companies with established overseas layouts and ample production capacity, specifically highlighting TCL Electronics (2025 PE: 12.0X) and Hisense (12.1X) as key investment opportunities [34][35].

Group 1: Samsung Electronics - Samsung Electronics reported preliminary earnings for Q2 2025, with sales of 74 trillion KRW (approximately 388.87 billion RMB), a year-on-year decrease of 0.09% and a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 6.49% [1] - The operating profit was 4.6 trillion KRW (approximately 24.17 billion RMB), reflecting a year-on-year decline of 55.94% and a quarter-on-quarter decline of 31.24%, falling short of the market expectation of 6.69 trillion KRW [1][2] - This operating profit is the lowest since Q4 2023 and the lowest for a Q2 since Q2 2023 [2] - The expected operating profits for various departments include approximately 1 trillion KRW for the Device Solutions (DS) division, around 2 trillion KRW for the Mobile Experience (MX) and Network divisions, 600 to 700 billion KRW for the Display division, 400 to 500 billion KRW for the TV and home appliance division, and 300 to 400 billion KRW for the Automotive Electronics division [3] Group 2: LG Electronics - LG Electronics reported a consolidated revenue of 20.74 trillion KRW (approximately 108.99 billion RMB) for Q2 2025, with an operating profit of 639.1 billion KRW (approximately 3.36 billion RMB), representing year-on-year declines of 4.4% and 46.6%, respectively [4] - The decline in revenue and operating profit is attributed to slow recovery in consumer sentiment, unfavorable business environment, rising tariff costs due to changes in global trade policies, and intensified market competition [7] - Despite the challenges, LG Electronics' home appliances, B2B, and HVAC businesses performed well, maintaining healthy profitability [7] - The media and entertainment solutions business faced pressure due to demand slowdown, rising LCD panel prices, and increased marketing costs, impacting profitability [7] - For the second half of 2025, LG Electronics plans to focus on maintaining business fundamentals and emphasize "quality growth" in areas such as B2B, non-hardware, and D2C (direct-to-consumer) [8] - To strengthen its position in the high-end OLED TV market, LG Electronics aims to launch new wireless products and expand into new content areas like gaming and digital art to enhance the competitiveness of its webOS platform [9]