屋漏偏逢连夜雨！最近5年以来的中国彩电市场，不只是遭遇了电视机产品的"量跌价连降"，更让众多彩电企业痛苦的是"越来 越多新老用户都在加速抛弃电视机"，选择其他的娱乐方式和产品。 最新数据显示：2025年第三季度中国彩电市场零售量615万台，同比下降12.1%；零售额252亿元，同比下降8.1%。今年前三季度 中国彩电市场零售量、零售额分别为1991万台、814亿元，同比下跌2.9%、增长2.1%。奥维云网还预测，2025年中国彩电全渠道 零售额规模预计1208亿元，同比下降5%；零售量规模预计达2892万台，同比下降6%。 不过，从前三季度不足2千万台的出货量，要在今年四季度取得近900万台的出货量，对于市场上的众多彩电厂商而言，难度不 小。这还意味着，短短几年时间，彩电在中国市场的零售量，已经从高光时期的超5千万台，一路下跌之后，如今则直接失守 3000万台，未来是否会一步步跌破2500万台、2000万台，并不意外。 电视，对于中国家庭和消费者来说，如今最大的生存困局，不只是在市场上彻底"卖不动"，关键还在于家庭里"看不上"。不管 是液晶电视、OLED电视，还是激光电视、投影电视，最终都在遭遇一个挑战：与显 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the trend of RGB-Mini LED TVs in the market, highlighting the introduction of new models by Hisense and TCL, and the implications of size and price adjustments on market competition with OLED TVs [3][4][5]. Group 1: Product Launches and Market Trends - In the first half of 2025, Hisense was the only brand selling RGB-Mini LED TVs, with sizes of 85, 100, and 116 inches available during the 618 promotion [5]. - By the second half of 2025, both Hisense and TCL actively launched new RGB-Mini LED TV models, including TCL's Q9M and Q10M Ultra series, and Hisense's E8S Pro series [5][8]. - The size range for RGB-Mini LED TVs expanded to include 65 inches during the Double 11 promotion, indicating a trend towards smaller sizes [8][11]. Group 2: Pricing Strategy - The introduction of 65-inch RGB-Mini LED TVs during the Double 11 promotion was priced lower than comparable OLED models, suggesting a competitive pricing strategy [11]. - The 75-inch RGB-Mini LED TV was priced lower than the 77-inch OLED, and the 85-inch RGB-Mini LED TV was cheaper than the 83-inch OLED, indicating a price advantage for RGB-Mini LED TVs in the high-end market [11][13]. - The high-end RGB-Mini LED TVs, such as the 115-inch and 116-inch models, are priced around 100,000 yuan, reflecting their premium specifications [13]. Group 3: Market Impact - The expansion of sizes and competitive pricing for RGB-Mini LED TVs is expected to positively influence sales in the terminal market [9]. - The shift towards smaller sizes, including the introduction of 50-inch FHD TVs by multiple brands, is aimed at capturing demand previously held by 43-inch UHD TVs, contributing to an increase in average TV sizes [14][15].

Core Viewpoint - The television industry in 2025 is experiencing declining sales, yet manufacturers continue to promote "revolutionary" technologies, with RGB+Mini LED being highlighted as the "ultimate picture quality solution" [1][10] Technology Overview - RGB+Mini LED is a backlighting technology for LCDs, enhancing brightness and color purity by using red, green, and blue LEDs directly, avoiding the loss associated with white light and filters [3][5] - Mini LED technology allows for thousands of smaller LEDs, enabling more precise local dimming and improved contrast compared to traditional backlighting methods [3][4] Market Positioning - RGB+Mini LED is positioned as a superior alternative to OLED, offering higher brightness and longer lifespan, particularly advantageous for large screen sizes [4][8] - The technology is seen as a strategic move for Chinese manufacturers to leverage their strengths in the LCD supply chain while competing against OLED technologies from Korean companies [8] Consumer Experience - Users have reported that RGB+Mini LED displays provide superior color purity and performance in both dark and bright environments, enhancing overall viewing experience [6][7] - Despite the technological advancements, the industry faces challenges with declining television usage rates as consumer attention shifts to mobile devices and other forms of entertainment [9][10] Economic Considerations - The cost of RGB backlighting modules is significantly higher than traditional white light solutions, with production costs increasing by 30% to 50% [7] - High power consumption and heat generation in large models pose additional challenges, impacting design and user experience [7] Future Outlook - The future of televisions may depend less on technical specifications and more on redefining their role in the home as entertainment hubs and smart living interfaces [9][10] - While RGB+Mini LED represents a peak in LCD technology, it may serve as a transitional phase as the industry explores new innovations like Micro LED and AI-enhanced features [9][10]

Group 1 - The report highlights that the black electrical appliance industry is adopting a more aggressive pricing strategy, particularly in the offline market, with significant price reductions observed from Q4 2024 to Q1 2025 [6][21][33] - Mini LED technology is experiencing rapid penetration, with a projected global shipment increase of 40% to 8.6 million units in 2025, driven by cost reduction pathways and structural upgrades in product offerings [7][9][55] - Major brands like Hisense and TCL are focusing on the Mini LED segment to enhance their market share in both global and high-end markets, with a notable increase in their product offerings [6][9][55] Group 2 - The report indicates that the pricing strategy for Mini LED products is significantly downward, with offline average prices dropping from nearly 20,000 yuan in December 2022 to approximately 11,500 yuan by April 2025 [9][36] - The competitive landscape in overseas markets, particularly North America and Eastern Europe, is intensifying, with local brands employing aggressive pricing strategies that have led to a decline in average prices [8][41] - The report suggests that the impact of the current pricing strategies on profitability for manufacturers is relatively limited due to the dual support of cost reduction and product structure upgrades [9][67]

Core Viewpoint - TrendForce's latest survey indicates that global TV brand shipments are expected to reach 92.5 million units in the first half of 2025, reflecting a 2% year-on-year increase, but the second half may face challenges due to various market factors [2]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The anticipated demand for the second half of 2025 may be pressured by high panel costs, which hinder brands from expanding promotional activities [2]. - Expected tariff adjustments could influence retail prices, leading consumers to make purchases earlier, with U.S. TV sales in the first half of 2025 showing a year-on-year increase of 2% to 3%, potentially pulling forward demand that would have been released in the second half [2]. - Domestic demand may face pressure due to changes in the market environment and policy adjustments, leading to a downward revision of the total shipment forecast for 2025 to 195.71 million units, a decrease of 1.1% year-on-year [2]. Group 2: Brand Performance - The top five TV brands in the first half of 2025 are Samsung, TCL, Hisense, LGE, and Xiaomi, collectively holding 65.6% of the market share [5]. - TCL and Hisense experienced significant shipment growth in the first half of 2025, with increases of 12.5% and 7.3% respectively, outperforming the market average and improving their market shares compared to 2024 [5]. - Vizio's shipments grew by 13% in the first half of 2025, the highest among all brands, and is expected to see over 30% annual growth due to its acquisition by Walmart [5]. Group 3: Technology Trends - Mini LED TV shipments are projected to increase by 67% year-on-year, reaching 12.9 million units, with TCL, Hisense, and Xiaomi expected to capture a combined market share of 62% [6]. - OLED technology is anticipated to account for approximately 3.4% of the global TV market by 2025, with Samsung raising its shipment target to 2 million units, leading to a 5.6% year-on-year increase in OLED TV shipments, capturing nearly 80% of the market share among the two major Korean brands [6]. - High refresh rate TVs (120Hz and above) are expected to see a year-on-year shipment growth of 24.4%, with an overall market penetration rate of 13.6% driven by policy support and brand upgrades [6].

Core Insights - The global TV brand shipment volume is projected to reach 92.5 million units in the first half of 2025, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 2% [1] - Mini LED TV shipments are expected to grow by 67% this year, reaching 12.9 million units, with TCL, Hisense, and Xiaomi collectively increasing their market share to 62% [1] - The overall TV shipment forecast for 2025 has been revised down to 195.71 million units, a decrease of 1.1% year-on-year [1] Brand Performance - Samsung's shipment volume remains stable at 16.55 million units for both 1H24 and 1H25, with a slight decline in market share from 18.2% to 17.9% [2] - TCL's shipments are projected to increase by 12.5% from 12.52 million units in 1H24 to 14.08 million units in 1H25, raising its market share from 13.8% to 15.2% [2] - Hisense is expected to see a 7.3% increase in shipments, from 12.88 million units in 1H24 to 13.82 million units in 1H25, with market share rising from 14.2% to 14.9% [2] - Vizio's shipments grew by 13% in the first half of the year, with an expected annual growth of over 30% due to its acquisition by Walmart [4] Market Trends - The penetration rate of Mini LED TVs is projected to be around 6.6%, with significant contributions from TCL, Hisense, and Xiaomi [1] - OLED technology is expected to account for approximately 3.4% of the global TV market in 2025, with Samsung raising its shipment target to 2 million units, leading to a 5.6% year-on-year increase in OLED TV shipments [4] - High refresh rate TVs (120Hz and above) are anticipated to see a year-on-year growth rate of 24.4%, with a market penetration rate of 13.6% [4] - The overall TV market is experiencing a structural upgrade driven by technology, with brands focusing on Mini LED, OLED, and high refresh rate products to enhance competitiveness [5]

Core Insights - The global TV brand shipment volume reached 92.5 million units in the first half of 2025, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 2% [2] - The overall shipment forecast for 2025 has been revised down to 195.71 million units, indicating a year-on-year decrease of 1.1% [2] Group 1: Market Performance - Major brands in the first half of 2025 included Samsung, TCL, Hisense, LGE, and Xiaomi, collectively holding a market share of 65.6% [6] - TCL and Hisense experienced significant growth in shipments, with increases of 12.5% and 7.3% respectively, outperforming the market average [7] - Vizio's shipments grew by 13% in the first half of 2025, with an expected annual growth of over 30% following its acquisition by Walmart [7] Group 2: Technology Trends - Mini LED TV shipments are projected to increase by 67% in 2025, reaching 12.9 million units, with TCL, Hisense, and Xiaomi expected to capture 62% of the market share [8] - OLED technology is anticipated to account for approximately 3.4% of the global TV market in 2025, with Samsung raising its shipment target to 2 million units, leading to a 5.6% annual growth in OLED shipments [8] - High refresh rate TVs (120Hz and above) are expected to see a 24.4% increase in shipments, with a market penetration rate of 13.6% driven by mid-to-high-end product demand [8]

Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage on TCL Electronics with a "Buy" rating [2][5]. Core Views - TCL Electronics is focusing on high-end MiniLED televisions to enhance its global brand strength, with expectations to surpass Samsung in global brand sales within three years [5]. - The company has set ambitious performance targets through stock incentive plans, aiming for significant profit growth in the coming years [5][36]. - The global black television market is shifting in favor of Chinese brands, with TCL positioned to benefit from this trend as competitors like Samsung and LG exit the LCD panel production market [5][63]. Financial Forecasts - Revenue projections for TCL Electronics are as follows: - 2024: 99,322 million HKD - 2025: 114,834 million HKD (growth of 15.6%) - 2026: 128,495 million HKD (growth of 11.9%) - 2027: 142,249 million HKD (growth of 10.7%) [2][5]. - Net profit forecasts are: - 2024: 1,759 million HKD - 2025: 2,378 million HKD (growth of 35.2%) - 2026: 2,878 million HKD (growth of 21.1%) - 2027: 3,463 million HKD (growth of 20.3%) [2][5]. Market Trends - The global television market is experiencing stable demand, with a notable increase in Mini LED technology adoption, expected to grow significantly in the coming years [49][50]. - The trend towards larger screen sizes is becoming mainstream, with a projected increase in demand for televisions over 80 inches [57]. - High refresh rate televisions are also seeing rapid growth, with expectations for significant increases in market share [60]. Competitive Landscape - The report highlights a shift in the competitive landscape, with Korean companies like Samsung and LG exiting the LCD panel market, which may benefit TCL and other Chinese brands [63][64]. - TCL's strategy of focusing on high-end products and large screens is expected to improve its market position against traditional competitors [5][63].

Core Viewpoint - The Japanese flat-panel TV market is experiencing growth, with June 2025 shipments showing a 6.7% increase compared to the same month last year, reaching 394,000 units, marking the second consecutive month of growth and the highest monthly shipment since December 2024 [1][3]. Group 1: TV Shipment Data - In June 2025, shipments of 60-inch and larger TVs increased significantly by 16.2% to 69,000 units, while shipments of 50-59 inch TVs slightly decreased by 0.5% to 122,000 units [3]. - The 4K TV segment saw a remarkable growth of 36.2% in June 2025, with shipments reaching 261,000 units, the highest monthly shipment since December 2024 [3]. - The share of 4K TVs in the overall flat-panel TV shipments reached 66.2% in June 2025, with a shipment value of 36.7 billion yen, accounting for 90.4% of the total flat-panel TV shipment value of 40.6 billion yen [3]. Group 2: OLED TV Performance - In contrast, OLED TV shipments in June 2025 decreased by 16.6% to 45,000 units, marking the 12th consecutive month of decline [3]. - The shipment value of OLED TVs in June 2025 was 9.8 billion yen [3]. Group 3: Overall Market Trends - For the first half of 2025 (January to June), the total flat-panel TV shipments in Japan decreased by 0.4% year-on-year to 2.112 million units, with 4K TV shipments slightly increasing by 0.4% to 1.07 million units, while OLED TV shipments plummeted by 42.3% to 138,000 units [3]. - The overall digital home appliance shipment value in June 2025 fell by 3.7% year-on-year to 92.2 billion yen, marking the eighth consecutive month of decline [4]. - The shipment value for flat-panel TVs and related imaging devices decreased by 4.8% to 47.9 billion yen, while audio-related devices and automotive AVC machines also experienced declines [4].

Group 1 - Samsung Electronics' operating profit guidance for Q2 2025 is expected to drop by 56% year-on-year, while LG Electronics' guidance is projected to decline by 47%, indicating a shift in pricing power towards Chinese panel manufacturers and a loss of influence in the global high-end market [1] - Samsung's video display division is estimated to see a 46% year-on-year decline in Q2 operating profit, recording only 113 billion KRW (approximately 600 million RMB), while LG Electronics anticipates a loss between 23.5 billion to 99 billion KRW (approximately 120 million to 520 million RMB), potentially marking one of its worst performances in recent years [1] Group 2 - The concentration of the industry is accelerating due to national subsidies, with the market share of the top four companies increasing from 82% before subsidies to 87% after [2] - The penetration rate of MiniLED TVs surged from 16% during the same period last year to over 40% during the 618 shopping festival, indicating a significant market shift [2] - The upstream panel industry is undergoing a consolidation, with TCL Huaxing completing the acquisition of LGD's Guangzhou panel factory and BOE acquiring a 30% stake in Rainbow Optoelectronics, leading to the top four manufacturers controlling nearly 70% of the market [2] Group 3 - Global high-end TV shipments increased by 44% year-on-year in Q1 2025, with sales revenue growing by 35%; Hisense's market share in high-end TV shipments rose from 14% to 20%, and TCL's share increased from 13% to 19%, surpassing LG [3] - Samsung's share in the high-end TV market fell from 39% to 28%, while LG's share dropped from 23% to 16%, resulting in a decline to fourth place [3] - The penetration of MiniLED TVs is expected to double to 16 million units in 2025, while OLED TV shipments are projected to remain stagnant at around 6 million units due to cost constraints [3]