证券研究报告 | 半年报点评 gszqdatemark 2025 08 26 年 月 日 全球份额不断提升，H1 业绩持续增长 事件：公司发布 2025 年半年报。公司 2025H1 实现营业总收入 272.31 亿元，同比增长 6.95%；实现归母净利润 10.56 亿元，同比增长 26.63%。 其中，2025Q2 单季营业总收入为 138.55 亿元，同比增长 8.59%；归母净 利润为 5.02 亿元，同比增长 36.82%。 国内及海外高端化领域龙头地位稳固。内销看，公司高端化领域龙头地位 巩固， 2025H1 公 司 在 百 寸 以 上 电 视 零 售 量 / 零 售 额 市 占 率 为 41.65%/48.66%；高端市场中，线上/线下额占有率为 34.88%/43.15%； MiniLED 产品中量/额市占率达 33.95%/34.98%。外销看，公司 Miniled 出 货量同比+108.24%，分区域看，北美 Miniled 占比+2.1pct 至 5.9%，品 牌价格指数同比提升 7.4；欧洲 MiniLED 占比+1.6pct 至 9.5%，品牌价格 指数提升 8；日本 MiniLED ...

海信视像（ [Table_StockNameRptType] 600060） 公司点评 结构和盈利改善如期兑现 ——海信视像 25Q2 业绩点评 | | | 报告日期： 2025-08-26 | [Table_BaseData] 收盘价（元） | 21.71 | | --- | --- | | 近 12 个月最高/最低（元） | 25.88/14.28 | | 总股本（百万股） | 1,305 | | 流通股本（百万股） | 1,295 | | 流通股比例（%） | 99.24 | | 总市值（亿元） | 283 | | 流通市值（亿元） | 281 | [公司价格与沪深 Table_Chart] 300 走势比较 -15% 9% 32% 56% 79% 8/24 11/24 2/25 5/25 海信视像 沪深300 [Table_Author] 分析师：邓欣 执业证书号：S0010524010001 邮箱：dengxin@hazq.com 分析师：成浅之 执业证书号：S0010524100003 邮箱：chengqianzhi@hazq.com 主要观点： [⚫Table_Summary] 公司发布 202 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the home appliance industry, indicating a cautious but positive outlook for investment opportunities in this sector [2]. Core Insights - The report highlights a decrease in the proportion of public funds heavily invested in the home appliance sector, with a notable shift towards black appliances and cleaning appliances, while white appliances and two-wheeled vehicles saw a reduction in allocation [2][18]. - The overall market sentiment is influenced by concerns over domestic demand due to the temporary suspension of national subsidy policies and escalating trade tensions with the U.S. [13][19]. - Despite the challenges, leading home appliance companies are expected to expand their presence in emerging markets, which may enhance their overseas revenue and provide stable growth opportunities [13][19]. Summary by Sections Section 1: Fund Heavyweight Analysis - In Q2 2025, the proportion of public funds invested in home appliances decreased to 4.74%, down by 0.77 percentage points from the previous quarter [13]. - The overweight ratio for the home appliance sector was 2.44%, reflecting a decline of 0.55 percentage points [13]. Section 2: Sector Allocation - Funds increased their allocation to black appliances and small appliances, with respective increases of 0.09 percentage points and 0.06 percentage points [18]. - Conversely, allocations to white appliances, kitchen appliances, upstream components, and two-wheeled vehicles decreased by 0.63, 0.02, 0.10, and 0.17 percentage points, respectively [18]. Section 3: Key Stocks - The report notes an increase in fund holdings for companies such as Hisense Visual and TCL Electronics, with increases of 0.03 and 0.06 percentage points, respectively [69]. - In the white appliance sector, major companies like Midea Group, Gree Electric, and Haier Smart Home saw declines in fund holdings, with decreases of 0.29, 0.15, and 0.15 percentage points, respectively [66][67][68].

（文章来源：每日经济新闻） 招商证券指出，家用电器和白色家电行业出口链再迎催化，中美关税第三轮谈判聚焦延长关税暂缓期， 同时7月底第三批690亿元国补资金下发到地方政府，以旧换新消费刺激延续。黑电行业呈现东升西落趋 势，TCL电子、海信视像冲击高端市场，韩系品牌业绩折戟，背后是面板厂商上游格局出清、MiniLED 电视结构升级的产业趋势。白电行业重视以海尔为代表的品牌，发挥美国本土制造优势，获取增量份额 及海外利润率修复机会。行业整体受益于出口政策及补贴资金支持，产业链格局优化与高端化升级趋势 明确。 家电ETF（159996）跟踪的是家用电器指数（930697），该指数从市场中选取涉及空调、冰箱、洗衣机 等家电产品制造与销售的上市公司证券作为指数样本，以反映家用电器相关上市公司证券的整体表现。 行业配置上侧重于消费电子和耐用消费品领域，具有较强的消费属性。 ...

Group 1: Macro Insights - The implementation of the childcare subsidy system is a significant step towards the "investment in people" policy direction, with a current annual subsidy of 3600 yuan per child under three years old, potentially reaching a scale of 1188 billion yuan from 2025 to 2027 [2][3][6] - The subsidy reflects a new paradigm of central-local cooperation, with a funding distribution ratio of 9:1 between central and local governments, allowing provinces to adjust subsidy standards based on local conditions [4] - The expected gradual increase in birth rates due to the subsidy may lead to a more direct boost in consumption, with an estimated consumption increment of about 780 billion yuan in 2024 [5][6] Group 2: Fixed Income and Special Bonds - The issuance of special bonds has accelerated but remains below the average levels of previous years, with a cumulative issuance progress of 49% by the end of June 2025, primarily directed towards debt repayment and real estate [9][10] - The structural changes in project construction indicate a shift towards land acquisition and storage, with significant regional disparities in bond allocation [10][11] - The potential for new infrastructure investments is expected to grow, with traditional infrastructure remaining a key support for economic stability [12][13] Group 3: Military Industry - The military sector is experiencing increased fund holdings, with a notable rise in military fund allocations, indicating a favorable investment opportunity driven by domestic demand and military trade [23][25] - The upcoming 80th anniversary of the victory in the Anti-Japanese War is expected to serve as a catalyst for the industry, alongside positive earnings expectations from Q2 reports [25] - The long-term outlook for military equipment demand is optimistic, with significant growth potential anticipated as geopolitical tensions rise [25][26] Group 4: Non-Ferrous Metals - The "anti-involution" sentiment is gaining traction, leading to a strong rebound in lithium prices, which have increased by 27% recently due to stricter mining approvals and a crackdown on low-price competition [27][30] - The current market dynamics suggest that lithium prices may continue to rise, supported by supply uncertainties and ongoing policy adjustments [30] - The overall performance of the non-ferrous metals sector has shown significant growth, with various metals experiencing price increases [27][28]

Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage on TCL Electronics with a "Buy" rating [2][5]. Core Views - TCL Electronics is focusing on high-end MiniLED televisions to enhance its global brand strength, with expectations to surpass Samsung in global brand sales within three years [5]. - The company has set ambitious performance targets through stock incentive plans, aiming for significant profit growth in the coming years [5][36]. - The global black television market is shifting in favor of Chinese brands, with TCL positioned to benefit from this trend as competitors like Samsung and LG exit the LCD panel production market [5][63]. Financial Forecasts - Revenue projections for TCL Electronics are as follows: - 2024: 99,322 million HKD - 2025: 114,834 million HKD (growth of 15.6%) - 2026: 128,495 million HKD (growth of 11.9%) - 2027: 142,249 million HKD (growth of 10.7%) [2][5]. - Net profit forecasts are: - 2024: 1,759 million HKD - 2025: 2,378 million HKD (growth of 35.2%) - 2026: 2,878 million HKD (growth of 21.1%) - 2027: 3,463 million HKD (growth of 20.3%) [2][5]. Market Trends - The global television market is experiencing stable demand, with a notable increase in Mini LED technology adoption, expected to grow significantly in the coming years [49][50]. - The trend towards larger screen sizes is becoming mainstream, with a projected increase in demand for televisions over 80 inches [57]. - High refresh rate televisions are also seeing rapid growth, with expectations for significant increases in market share [60]. Competitive Landscape - The report highlights a shift in the competitive landscape, with Korean companies like Samsung and LG exiting the LCD panel market, which may benefit TCL and other Chinese brands [63][64]. - TCL's strategy of focusing on high-end products and large screens is expected to improve its market position against traditional competitors [5][63].

Group 1 - Samsung Electronics' operating profit guidance for Q2 2025 is expected to drop by 56% year-on-year, while LG Electronics' guidance is projected to decline by 47%, indicating a shift in pricing power towards Chinese panel manufacturers and a loss of influence in the global high-end market [1] - Samsung's video display division is estimated to see a 46% year-on-year decline in Q2 operating profit, recording only 113 billion KRW (approximately 600 million RMB), while LG Electronics anticipates a loss between 23.5 billion to 99 billion KRW (approximately 120 million to 520 million RMB), potentially marking one of its worst performances in recent years [1] Group 2 - The concentration of the industry is accelerating due to national subsidies, with the market share of the top four companies increasing from 82% before subsidies to 87% after [2] - The penetration rate of MiniLED TVs surged from 16% during the same period last year to over 40% during the 618 shopping festival, indicating a significant market shift [2] - The upstream panel industry is undergoing a consolidation, with TCL Huaxing completing the acquisition of LGD's Guangzhou panel factory and BOE acquiring a 30% stake in Rainbow Optoelectronics, leading to the top four manufacturers controlling nearly 70% of the market [2] Group 3 - Global high-end TV shipments increased by 44% year-on-year in Q1 2025, with sales revenue growing by 35%; Hisense's market share in high-end TV shipments rose from 14% to 20%, and TCL's share increased from 13% to 19%, surpassing LG [3] - Samsung's share in the high-end TV market fell from 39% to 28%, while LG's share dropped from 23% to 16%, resulting in a decline to fourth place [3] - The penetration of MiniLED TVs is expected to double to 16 million units in 2025, while OLED TV shipments are projected to remain stagnant at around 6 million units due to cost constraints [3]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a strong buy recommendation for Hisense, TCL Electronics, and Zhao Chi shares, highlighting their potential in the MiniLED market [2]. Core Insights - The report indicates that the MiniLED TV market is experiencing accelerated penetration due to national subsidies, leading to improved profitability for domestic brands. The market share of leading brands is increasing, while Korean brands are losing their competitive edge [1][6]. - The report emphasizes that the MiniLED penetration rate has significantly increased, with sales during the 618 shopping festival rising from 16% to over 40% year-on-year [6][15]. - The report suggests that the overall market for MiniLED TVs is expected to double in 2025, with a projected shipment of 16 million units globally [6]. Summary by Sections Competition: Market Concentration and MiniLED Penetration - The report notes that the domestic TV industry is entering a growth phase post-subsidy, with online retail sales increasing by 35% in Q4 2024 and 15% in H1 2025 [11]. - The concentration of the top four manufacturers (Hisense, TCL, Xiaomi, and Skyworth) has increased, with their combined market share rising from 82% to 87% post-subsidy [19][21]. Cost: Panel Price Stability - The report highlights that the panel price volatility has decreased, with major manufacturers controlling production to stabilize prices. The market share of domestic panel manufacturers has increased to nearly 70% [25][26]. - The cost structure is shifting, with the cost of panels decreasing as MiniLED technology becomes more prevalent, allowing brands to improve profitability [26]. Product: National Subsidies Driving MiniLED Growth - The report states that MiniLED TV shipments in 2024 are expected to reach 4.16 million units, a 352% increase year-on-year, with penetration rates rising from 2.5% to 11.6% [31]. - The report discusses the impact of national subsidies on MiniLED penetration, with rates expected to exceed 41% during the 2025 618 shopping festival [37]. Overseas: Domestic Brands Targeting High-End Market - The report indicates that domestic brands are making significant inroads into the high-end TV market, with Hisense and TCL increasing their market shares significantly in Q1 2025 [6]. - The report notes that the global high-end TV shipment volume increased by 44% year-on-year, with domestic brands surpassing Korean competitors [6].

Investment Rating - The report rates the black electrical appliances industry as "Overweight" [1][34]. Core Viewpoints - The black electrical appliances industry is currently in a window of demand recovery and technological upgrade, with global capacity layout, especially in Mexico and Vietnam, being a core strategy to address tariff challenges. Chinese brands have advantages in high-end positioning and cost control, which provide resilience to the industry. The recent tariff adjustments in Vietnam are expected to reduce uncertainties, with tariffs on major production bases for exports to the U.S. projected to be in the range of 10% to 40%, improving from previous pessimistic expectations of over 46% [3][34]. Summary by Sections 1. Core Logic - The recent tariff agreement with Vietnam, effective July 3, 2025, introduces a 20% export tariff and a 40% transshipment tariff, which, despite increasing costs, have been mitigated by the flexible capacity layout of leading companies. The global expansion of leading black electrical appliance brands continues, with an upward trend in market share for the "dual champions" [8]. 2. Current Global Market Status 2.1. Enhanced Global Competitiveness of the Dual Champions - The global market is dominated by Chinese black electrical appliance leaders, TCL Electronics and Hisense, who leverage technological and capacity advantages. The global TV market is expected to reverse its continuous decline in 2024, with significant growth in shipments of large-sized TVs (80 inches and above). In Q1 2025, shipments of high-end TVs (75 inches and above) surged by 79% year-on-year, with revenue increasing by 59% [9][34]. 2.2. Tariff Conflicts in the North American Market - The North American market accounts for approximately 17% of the global market share. The lack of domestic panel production in the U.S. means that black electrical appliance production relies entirely on imports. Tariff increases could lead to higher retail prices, potentially suppressing end demand, but the impact on leading companies is limited due to similar cost pressures across all brands [20][34]. 3. Resolution of Tariff Negotiations in Vietnam 3.1. Vietnam as a Key Production Base for Exports to the U.S. - The recent tariff negotiations with Vietnam, which began in April 2025 and concluded in July, have resulted in a significant reduction in tariffs, alleviating previous uncertainties. The agreement allows for a 20% export tariff and a 40% transshipment tariff, a notable improvement from earlier expectations of over 46% [30][34]. 3.2. Long-term Advantages of Globally Positioned Leading Brands - While uncertainties from tariffs have decreased, the long-term risk of fluctuating U.S. tariff policies remains. Brands with global production layouts are better positioned to navigate these challenges through flexible supply chain adjustments, enhancing their competitive edge [32][34]. 4. Investment Recommendations - The black electrical appliances industry is positioned for growth due to demand recovery and technological upgrades. The report recommends investing in leading companies with established overseas layouts and ample production capacity, specifically highlighting TCL Electronics (2025 PE: 12.0X) and Hisense (12.1X) as key investment opportunities [34][35].

Group 1 - Vietnam is an important production base for the U.S. and serves as a barometer for U.S. tariff negotiations, with most countries achieving lower new tariff rates, reducing tariff disruptions [1][2] - The black electrical appliances industry is in a window of demand recovery and technological upgrade, with global capacity layout, especially in Mexico and Vietnam, being a core strategy to address tariff challenges [1][2] - Chinese brands, particularly TCL and Hisense, are gaining market share globally, narrowing the gap with Samsung and capturing high-end market segments [1][2] Group 2 - The expected tariff range for major production bases in the U.S. is between 10% and 40%, an improvement from previous pessimistic expectations of over 46%, with uncertainties largely eliminated [1][2] - The global television market is expected to reverse its continuous decline in 2024, with significant growth in shipments of large-sized TVs (80 inches and above) as consumer preferences continue to strengthen [1][2] - The penetration rate of MiniLED technology is rapidly increasing in China due to government subsidies, which is expected to enhance the profitability of black electrical appliance manufacturers in the medium to long term [1][2]