机构：西部证券 研究员：郑宏达/李想 公司持续推进AI 业务商业化：公司于2025 年9 月底推出了可灵2.5 Turbo模型，登顶Artificial Analysis 全 球文生视频模型和图生视频模型榜单第一名。 可灵AI 在25Q3 单季度收入超过3 亿元。公司持续优化OneRec 端到端生成式推荐大模型，将应用场景从 短视频内容推进扩展至线上营销、电商商城等场景。此外，公司还推出了生成式强化学习出价模型 G4RL，让广告投放在整段周期内自动实现预算与ROI双最优。OneRec 等大模型技术已在25Q3为公司国 内线上营销收入带来4%–5%的提升。 公司主营业务稳健增长：公司核心商业收入（线上营销服务和以电商为主的其他服务）同比增长 19.2%。公司线上营销服务25Q3 单季度收入为201 亿元（YoY+14%），直播服务25Q3 单季度收入为96 亿元（YoY+2.5%）。 我们认为：在生成式AI 应用加速落地的背景下，公司基于多模态大模型技术积极迭代软硬件，或将进 一步促进公司主营业务持续增长，同时，公司生成式AI 应用不断推进技术落地和商业化也有望为公司 带来新的增量空间。 投资建议：我们预计公司 ...

晨会纪要 证券研究报告 2025 年 11 月 26 日 核心结论 分析师 【传媒】快手-W（01024.HK）2025Q3 业绩点评：盈利能力稳步提升，AI 业务商业化提供增量空间 我们预计公司 2025 年-2027 年营业收入为 1431.03 亿元、1574.36 亿元、 1713.30 亿元，同比增长 12.8%、10.0%、8.8%，维持"买入"评级。 【海外政策】海外政策周聚焦：独木难支：为什么英伟达财报暂未打消市场 对 AI 的疑虑？ 英伟达财报暂未平息 AI 泡沫担忧。市场质疑 AI 投资回报率与循环融资。更 深层的，AI 叙事的基本假设在被质疑。AI 成本与收益方面，AI 创新与智能 手机存在两大差异，基建投资规模更大，但收益因开源模型竞争不能赢家通 吃。历史上的索洛悖论表明，技术进步加快不一定表现在全要素生产率提高。 观察 AI 对劳动生产率的影响，类似电力等新一轮工业革命还是社交媒体， 需看 AI 是否在重要行业产生较大影响，技术扩散速度是关键。 周颖 S0800520080003 zhouying@research.xbmail.com.cn 国内市场主要指数 | 指数名称 | 收盘 ...

公司点评 | 快手-W 盈利能力稳步提升，AI 业务商业化提供增量空间 证券研究报告 2025 年 11 月 25 日 快手-W（01024.HK）2025Q3 业绩点评 业绩摘要：公司 25Q3 单季度实现营业收入 355.54 亿元（YoY+14%），营 业利润 46.76 亿元（YoY+76%），净利润 44.88 亿元（YoY+37%），经调整 净利润 49.86 亿元（YoY+26%），经调整净利率为 14%，盈利能力稳步提升。 快手应用 25Q3 平均日活跃用户（DAU）4.16 亿（YoY+2.1%），平均月活 跃用户（MAU）7.31 亿（YoY+2.4%），每位日活跃用户平均线上营销服务 收入（ARPDAU）48.3 元（YoY+12%），总电商 GMV 为 3850.44 亿元 （YoY+15%）。 公司持续推进 AI 业务商业化：公司于 2025 年 9 月底推出了可灵 2.5 Turbo 模型，登顶 Artificial Analysis 全球文生视频模型和图生视频模型榜单第一名。 可灵 AI 在 25Q3 单季度收入超过 3 亿元。公司持续优化 OneRec 端到端生 成式推荐大模型 ...

Core Insights - Kuaishou reported a 13.1% year-on-year revenue growth to 35 billion RMB in Q2 2025, with adjusted net profit increasing by 20.1% to 5.6 billion RMB, both achieving double-digit growth [2][3] - The company announced a special dividend of 0.46 HKD per share, totaling approximately 2 billion HKD, marking the first dividend distribution since its IPO, signaling confidence in profitability [2] - Kuaishou's AI business, Keling AI, generated over 250 million RMB in revenue in Q2, up from 150 million RMB in Q1, indicating accelerated commercialization [2][12] Revenue and Profit Performance - Kuaishou's average daily active users reached 409 million, a 3.4% increase year-on-year, while monthly active users grew by 3.3% to 715 million [3] - The revenue structure shows online marketing services contributed 19.8 billion RMB, live streaming 10 billion RMB, and other services (including e-commerce and Keling) 5.2 billion RMB, with respective shares of 56.4%, 28.7%, and 14.9% [6] - Live streaming revenue grew by 8.0% year-on-year to 10 billion RMB, but the growth rate slowed from 14.4% in Q1 [6][10] E-commerce Insights - Kuaishou's e-commerce GMV reached 358.9 billion RMB in Q2, a 17.6% year-on-year increase, up from 15.4% in Q1 [6][9] - The average monthly buyers in e-commerce were 134 million, showing a slight decline from 135 million in Q1 [9] - Kuaishou faces intense competition from rivals like Douyin and Alibaba, with significant gaps in GMV compared to competitors [9] AI Business Development - Keling AI's revenue in Q2 exceeded 250 million RMB, with user growth doubling from 22 million in April to 45 million by July [12][14] - The AI technology is being integrated into Kuaishou's ecosystem, enhancing operational efficiency for merchants and creators [13] - Despite the promising growth of Keling AI, its contribution to overall revenue remains minimal at 0.7%, highlighting the need for a clearer path to monetization [14] Future Outlook - Kuaishou's transition from a traffic-driven model to a technology and efficiency-driven approach is evident, with AI opening new monetization avenues [14][15] - The company's ability to enhance efficiency in its core business while scaling AI monetization will be crucial for sustainable growth [15]

Group 1: Company Performance - The company's Q2 revenue reached 35.05 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 13.1%, while adjusted net profit was 5.618 billion yuan, up 20.1% year-on-year, with an adjusted net profit margin of 16.0%, an increase of 0.9 percentage points year-on-year [1] - The company declared its first special dividend of 0.46 HKD per share, totaling approximately 2 billion HKD [1] - The revenue from the company's Keling AI exceeded 250 million yuan in Q2, up from 150 million yuan in Q1, with expectations to double the revenue by 2025 [1] Group 2: AI Model and Ecosystem - The company launched the OneRec end-to-end generative recommendation model in Q2, which improved user engagement metrics, with daily active users (DAU) increasing by 3.4% and average daily usage time rising by 3.9% year-on-year [2] - The company’s e-commerce GMV grew by 17.6% to 358.9 billion yuan, exceeding expectations, with live streaming revenue reaching 10 billion yuan, up 8% year-on-year [2] - The company is expected to maintain robust growth in its e-commerce business in the second half of the year, driven by AI technology optimizing marketing solutions [2] Group 3: Profit Forecast and Investment Rating - The company is expected to maintain a high growth trend for Keling AI, with non-IFRS net profit forecasts for 2025-2027 at 20 billion, 24.5 billion, and 29.6 billion yuan, respectively, corresponding to non-IFRS PE ratios of 15, 12, and 10 times [3] - The investment rating is maintained at "Buy" due to the positive outlook on the company's performance and AI-driven efficiency improvements [3]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Kuaishou-W (01024.HK) [1] Core Views - The company's Q2 performance exceeded expectations, with revenue reaching 35.05 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 13.1%. Adjusted net profit was 5.618 billion yuan, up 20.1% year-on-year, with an adjusted net profit margin of 16.0%, an increase of 0.9 percentage points year-on-year [3][9] - The launch of the Keling AI 2.1 model has significantly improved model quality, enhancing dynamic performance and semantic response accuracy, which is expected to drive revenue growth [3][9] - The introduction of the OneRec end-to-end generative recommendation model has improved user engagement, with daily active users (DAU) increasing by 3.4% year-on-year and daily usage time rising by 3.9% year-on-year [3][9] Financial Forecasts - The report forecasts total revenue for Kuaishou to be 126.898 billion yuan in 2024, 142.599 billion yuan in 2025, and 156.929 billion yuan in 2026, with corresponding year-on-year growth rates of 11.78%, 12.37%, and 10.05% respectively [1][10] - The adjusted net profit is projected to reach 17.286 billion yuan in 2025 and 21.450 billion yuan in 2026, with year-on-year growth rates of 12.72% and 24.09% respectively [1][10] - The report anticipates that the non-IFRS net profit will be 20.016 billion yuan in 2025 and 24.455 billion yuan in 2026, with corresponding price-to-earnings ratios (P/E) of 14.86x and 12.16x [1][10]

Core Insights - The company reported better-than-expected performance in Q2 2025, with revenue increasing by 13% to 35 billion yuan and Non-IFRS net profit rising by 20% to 5.62 billion yuan, surpassing market expectations [1] - The company announced its first special dividend of 0.46 HKD per share, totaling 2 billion HKD, reflecting strong cash flow and commitment to shareholder returns [2] Revenue Growth - Q2 revenue growth was driven by strong performance in advertising and other services, with advertising revenue increasing by 13%, supported by key industry advertisers and improved product efficiency [1] - Other services revenue grew by 26%, with e-commerce GMV increasing by 18% to 358.9 billion yuan, indicating a rise in monthly active buyers and repurchase frequency [1] AI Ecosystem Development - The company launched version 2.1 of its AI platform, enhancing productivity and generating revenue of 250 million yuan in Q2, a 67% quarter-on-quarter increase [2] - The introduction of the OneRec end-to-end generative recommendation model aims to improve user engagement and advertising effectiveness, contributing to low single-digit growth in advertising revenue [2] Financial Health and Future Outlook - The company’s decision to distribute a special dividend and its share buyback of approximately 1.9 billion HKD in the first half of 2025 demonstrate its financial strength and commitment to returning value to shareholders [2] - The company expects to double its revenue from the AI segment in 2025 compared to initial forecasts, indicating strong growth potential [2] Valuation and Earnings Forecast - The company maintains its Non-IFRS net profit forecast, with the current stock price corresponding to 14/12 times the Non-IFRS P/E for 2025/2026 [2] - The target price has been raised by 11% to 89 HKD, reflecting a 24% upside potential due to the ongoing upgrades in the AI ecosystem [2]

Core Viewpoint - Kuaishou Technology reported record highs in both traffic and profitability for Q2 ending June 30, 2025, with revenue growth of 13.1% year-on-year to 35 billion RMB and adjusted net profit growth of 20.1% to 5.6 billion RMB [1][2] Financial Performance - Revenue reached 35.046 billion RMB, a 13.1% increase from 30.975 billion RMB in the previous year [2] - Gross profit was 19.504 billion RMB with a gross margin of 55.7%, up from 55.3% [2] - Operating profit increased by 35.4% to 5.289 billion RMB, while net profit rose by 23.7% to 4.922 billion RMB [2] - Adjusted net profit margin improved to 16.0% from 15.1% [2] User Engagement - Average daily active users reached 409 million, a 3.4% increase year-on-year, while average monthly active users grew by 3.3% to 715 million [1] - Total user engagement time increased by 7.5% year-on-year, indicating a significant boost in overall traffic [1] AI Integration and Business Transformation - The shift in focus from user growth and e-commerce GMV to AI-driven effects is evident, with AI seen as a core indicator for future growth [3][4] - Kuaishou's AI capabilities, particularly the Keling AI, have evolved into a significant independent business unit, generating 250 million RMB in revenue in Q2 [5][6] - AI is being integrated into Kuaishou's core operations, enhancing efficiency and reducing operational costs significantly [7][8] Advertising and E-commerce Innovations - Kuaishou's AI practices have restructured the advertising chain, improving conversion rates and optimizing marketing strategies [8][9] - The introduction of AI-driven digital hosts for live streaming has lowered operational barriers for merchants, allowing for more efficient and effective marketing [10][12] - E-commerce GMV reached 35.89 billion RMB, maintaining double-digit growth at 17.6% year-on-year, with AI playing a crucial role in enhancing transaction efficiency [13][14] Future Outlook - Kuaishou is transitioning from a content platform to an AI-driven digital business system, aiming for seamless integration from content creation to transaction [18] - The company is positioned to redefine efficiency in the next decade, focusing on maintaining user relationships while leveraging AI for operational improvements [18]

Core Insights - Kuaishou is shifting its focus from solely pursuing e-commerce GMV to leveraging AI for growth opportunities, as indicated by its recent financial performance and strategic direction [1][6] Financial Performance - In Q2 2025, Kuaishou reported a revenue increase of 13.1% year-on-year to 35 billion yuan, with operating profit rising 35.4% to approximately 5.3 billion yuan, and net profit increasing 23.7% to about 4.9 billion yuan [1] - Adjusted net profit for the quarter was approximately 5.6 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 20.1% [1] AI Integration and Growth - The integration of AI technology has led to improved marginal effects in Kuaishou's business, particularly in online marketing services and other service revenues [1] - Online marketing service revenue reached 19.8 billion yuan in Q2, growing 12.8% year-on-year, while other services, including e-commerce and Keling AI, saw a significant revenue increase of 25.9% to 5.2 billion yuan [1][5] Keling AI Performance - Keling AI generated over 250 million yuan in revenue in Q2, up from over 150 million yuan in Q1, indicating strong commercial potential [2] - The annualized revenue run rate for Keling AI surpassed 100 million USD within ten months of its launch, with monthly revenue exceeding 100 million yuan in April and May [2] Strategic Shift in E-commerce - Kuaishou's CFO announced that starting Q1 2026, the company will stop separately disclosing quarterly and annual GMV, emphasizing a shift towards a more diversified e-commerce business model [6] - The growth drivers for e-commerce will now focus on diverse e-commerce scenarios, AI-enabled merchant solutions, and enhanced user experiences [6] Investment in AI Capabilities - Kuaishou has increased its investment in Keling AI's inference computing power, expecting a doubling of Capex for Keling AI in 2025 compared to initial budgets [4] - The company anticipates that the overall impact of AI investments on profit margins will remain between 1% and 2% for the year [4] Future Growth Areas - Kuaishou aims to explore growth opportunities in local life services and automotive sectors, as well as content consumption industries like short dramas and mini-games [6]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the significant growth and market impact of Kuaishou's AI strategy, particularly through its "Keling AI" platform, which has become a key driver of revenue and innovation for the company [1][2][3]. Group 2 - Kuaishou's revenue for Q2 2025 reached 35 billion yuan, marking a 13.1% year-on-year increase, with adjusted net profit rising by 20.1% to 5.6 billion yuan, showcasing improved profitability with gross margin and adjusted net profit margin at 55.7% and 16.0% respectively [1]. - The "Keling AI" series has achieved a global market share of 30.7% in AI video tools, indicating its strong recognition and influence in the industry [3]. - Keling AI's revenue exceeded 250 million yuan in Q2 2025, with expectations to double its annual revenue compared to initial targets [3]. - The introduction of the OneRec model has significantly enhanced content recommendation efficiency, improving computational efficiency by 10 times and reducing operational costs to 10.6% of traditional solutions [4]. - Kuaishou's e-commerce GMV grew by 17.6% year-on-year to 358.9 billion yuan in Q2 2025, with an average of 134 million monthly buyers [5][6]. - The local life business saw a revenue increase of nearly 120% year-on-year in Q2 2025, driven by AI tools enhancing operational efficiency for over 10,000 local businesses [6]. - Kuaishou's overseas business revenue reached 1.3 billion yuan in Q2 2025, reflecting a 20.5% year-on-year growth, indicating successful replication of domestic operational strategies in international markets [6]. Group 3 - The articles emphasize the importance of practical AI applications and the establishment of effective profit models, highlighting Kuaishou's focus on sustainable growth through continuous technological investment and product iteration [7].