本文是由投资/产品专员而非分析师撰写的文章汇编。 它不构成研究报告，也不应被解释为研究报告，也不旨在提供 专业、投资或任何其他类型的建议或推荐。 CSIWM 个股点评 2026 年 1 月 9 日 摘要 中信证券财富管理与中信里昂研究观点一致。根据中信里昂研究在 2026 年 1 月 8 日发布的题为《Supersize profits》 的报告，过去一个月海力士 2026 年营业利润的市场一致预期已上调 30%，自 9 月以来累计上调 120%。分析指出， 由于数据中心客户需求保持强劲，DRAM 供应商积极提价，考虑到供应商库存处于极低水平，这一趋势预计将在未 来几个季度持续。 SK 海力士 000660 KS 本文内容由 Ryan Lee (李昊谦) 提供 中信证券财富管理(香港) 产品及投资方案部 韩国科技行业 电话：(852) 2237 9250 / 电邮：wminvestmentsolutions@citics.com.hk 利润超预期增长 目前海力士 DRAM 和 NAND 库存分别仅为 2 周和 6 周，在旺盛需求与供给受限的双重推动下，内存市场已完全转向 卖方市场。尽管大客户要求供应商签订长期 ...

深圳市江波龙电子股份有限公司 投资者关系活动记录表 编号：2025-037 | 投资者关系活动 | √特定对象调研 □分析师会议 □媒体采访 | | --- | --- | | 类别 | □业绩说明会 □新闻发布会 □路演活动 | | | √电话会议 □现场参观 □其他 | | 参与单位名称及 | 中泰证券、博普资产、创金合信、混沌投资、前海再保险、 | | | 安信基金、泰达宏利、国源信达、摩根士丹利、国信自营、 | | | 富荣基金、鹏华基金、橡果资管、方正证券、恒越基金、易 | | | 方达、前海人寿、远望角投资、开源资管、中盈蓝景、西部 | | 人员姓名 | 证券、华夏基金、东吴证券、万家基金、盘京投资、国寿资 | | | 产、弘毅远方、中信保诚基金、中邮基金、国寿资产、天弘 | | | 基金、泰康基金、大家资产、交银施罗德、平安基金、中海 | | | 基金、国寿资产 | | 时间 | 年 月 日（周二）10:00-11:00 2025 12 23 | | | 2025 年 12 月 23 日（周二）16:00-17:30 | | | 年 月 日（周五）10:00-11:30 2025 12 26 | ...

南财智讯12月23日电，江波龙在投资者关系活动中表示，AI技术应用持续推进云服务商对高效能 TLCeSSD、QLCeSSD的需求，叠加HDD供应短缺促使云服务商转单至SSD，NANDFlash需求迎来爆 发；受过往周期影响，主要原厂维持审慎的产能扩张策略，即使后续资本开支回升，受限于产能建设周 期的滞后性，对2026年位元产出的增量贡献也将较为有限。 ...

| | 升，目前 TCM | 模式的导入工作正加速进行，并有望在更多原 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 厂和 Tier1 | 客户的合作上持续取得突破。 | | 关于本次活动是 | | | | 否涉及应披露重 | | 本次活动不涉及未公开披露的重大信息。 | | 大信息的说明 | | | | 附件清单（如有） | 无 | | 编号：2025-036 | 投资者关系活动 | √特定对象调研 □分析师会议 □媒体采访 | | --- | --- | | 类别 | □业绩说明会 □新闻发布会 □路演活动 | | | □现场参观 √电话会议 □其他 | | | 长江证券、生命资产、聚象私募、东方财富证券、太平资产、 | | 参与单位名称及 | 西部证券、China Renaissance Securities (HK) Ltd、China | | 人员姓名 | Universal Asset Management Co., Ltd、Point72 Asset | | | Management、Pinpoint Asset Management Limited、WT Capital | | | 年 ...

Core Viewpoint - The demand for high-performance TLC eSSD and QLC eSSD will continue to rise due to AI applications, while HDD supply remains constrained, leading to an expected increase in overall NAND Flash prices in Q4 [1] Group 1 - AI applications are driving the demand for high-performance TLC eSSD and QLC eSSD [1] - HDD supply is still short, which is expected to support the increase in NAND Flash prices in Q4 [1] - Major manufacturers are maintaining a cautious capacity expansion strategy due to past cycles [1] Group 2 - If capital expenditures increase in the future, the contribution to bit output growth by 2026 will be limited due to the lag in capacity construction cycles [1]

Group 1: Market Trends and Pricing - The demand for CSP in high-performance TLC eSSD and QLC eSSD is expected to rise due to AI applications, while HDD supply remains tight, supporting a continued increase in NAND Flash prices in Q4 [2][3] - Major manufacturers are maintaining a cautious capacity expansion strategy, which may limit the contribution to bit output growth in 2026 due to the lag in capacity construction cycles [2] Group 2: Supply Chain and Partnerships - The company has established long-term direct cooperation with major global storage wafer manufacturers, providing a competitive edge in the supply chain [3] - Supplier information is disclosed in public documents such as the prospectus [3] Group 3: Technology and Product Development - The company's self-developed controller chip technology offers significant performance and power consumption advantages, utilizing advanced foundry processes and proprietary firmware algorithms [3] - The company has launched several cutting-edge high-performance storage products, including MRDIMM and CXL2.0 memory expansion modules, and is focused on market demand for future product development [3] Group 4: Clientele and Market Engagement - The company actively participates in technology and new product bidding for major clients, with enterprise storage products integrated into the supply chains of leading internet companies, including telecom operators and server manufacturers [3] Group 5: Disclosure Compliance - The activity does not involve any undisclosed significant information [3]

Core Insights - The conference highlighted the significant impact of AI on the semiconductor storage market, indicating that the demand is real and has altered the supply chain dynamics in high-tech manufacturing [3][9] - The year 2026 is viewed as a critical juncture for the industry, with various sectors expected to experience substantial growth driven by AI technologies [9] Group 1: Semiconductor Manufacturing - TrendForce forecasts a 19% annual revenue growth for the wafer foundry industry by 2026, with AI-related advanced processes expected to grow by 28%, significantly outpacing the overall market [3] - TSMC has already implemented 2nm process technology in production and plans to advance to 1nm, indicating a strong push towards cutting-edge manufacturing capabilities [3] Group 2: DRAM Market - AI servers and general servers are driving a new super cycle in the memory market, with applications related to AI and servers projected to account for 66% of total DRAM capacity by 2026 [4] - The average selling price (ASP) of DRAM is expected to increase by 36% in 2026, with revenue anticipated to surge by 56%, despite limited output growth due to cleanroom space and equipment delivery constraints [4] Group 3: NAND Flash and Storage Solutions - The NAND Flash market is transitioning from passive storage to an auxiliary computing core, with high-bandwidth flash (HBF) positioned as a cost-effective alternative to HBM [6] - A significant storage gap of 150EB is expected in the HDD market by 2026, leading to increased demand for high-density QLC eSSD [5] Group 4: AI and AR Integration - AI advancements in image recognition and language processing are enhancing the functionality of AR glasses, which are seen as the ultimate form of human-computer interaction [6] - The global shipment of AR glasses is projected to exceed 10 million units by 2030, driven by major brands like Google and Apple entering the market post-2027 [7] Group 5: Power Semiconductors - The shift in data center power supply architecture towards 800V HVDC is being driven by the rising power consumption of AI chips, with SiC and GaN technologies becoming crucial [8] - SiC is establishing a leading position in high-voltage applications, while GaN is entering a rapid growth phase across various sectors, including AI data centers and automotive [8] Group 6: Overall Industry Trends - The conference underscored a consensus that AI is catalyzing a new cycle centered around storage, with 2026 being a pivotal year for observing this trend [9]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent surge in memory prices, particularly DDR4 and NAND, driven by supply constraints, persistent demand, and market panic, indicating a structural shift in the memory industry towards new technologies like DDR5 and HBM [3][4][6]. Summary by Sections Memory Market Overview - The article provides an overview of the memory market in 2023, highlighting the significant price increases in DDR4 and NAND due to various factors [2]. DDR4 Price Surge - DDR4 prices have surged due to a substantial reduction in supply and unchanged demand, exacerbated by market panic and structural adjustments in the industry [3]. - Major manufacturers like Micron and Samsung have announced the end of life (EOL) for DDR4, leading to a drastic cut in supply, with effective production capacity for DDR4 decreasing significantly [3][4]. - Demand for DDR4 remains strong in specific sectors, particularly among North American internet companies and AI-driven businesses in China, with a year-on-year increase in AI server demand of 60%-70% [4][5]. Market Sentiment and Price Dynamics - Market panic has intensified as news of supply shortages spread, leading to hoarding behavior among distributors and a rapid increase in prices, with some DDR4 modules exceeding the prices of DDR5 [5][6]. - The price increase is attributed to a combination of reduced supply, persistent demand, and market fear of shortages, indicating a transitional phase in the industry from older technologies to newer ones [6]. OpenAI and Strategic Partnerships - OpenAI has formed strategic partnerships with Samsung and SK Hynix to support its AI data center project, which aims to significantly increase DRAM procurement [7]. - OpenAI plans to purchase up to 900,000 wafers of DRAM monthly by 2029, which is nearly half of the projected global DRAM capacity by the end of 2025 [8]. NAND Market Insights - The NAND market is experiencing a resurgence due to new demand from AI applications, which require high-speed and high-capacity storage solutions [13][14]. - The shift from HDD to NAND-based solutions is expected to drive further demand, with predictions of significant growth in the NAND market driven by AI-related applications [14][15]. Domestic Memory Companies - Company D is focusing on enterprise SSDs, with significant order growth expected, particularly from major clients like Alibaba and ByteDance [19][20]. - Company J has introduced innovative products tailored for AI data centers and is seeing rapid growth in its self-developed controller chips [22][23]. - Company Z is experiencing strong demand across its product lines, with a focus on DRAM and industrial applications, and plans for an IPO to support its AI and global strategies [25][27].

Core Insights - The NAND Flash market composite price index increased by 5% in Q3 2025, while the DRAM market composite price index rose by 19.2% [1] - In September alone, the NAND Flash market composite price index saw a 4.7% increase, and the DRAM market composite price index increased by 2.6% [1] - It is anticipated that the eSSD prices will rise by approximately 10% in Q4, and DDR5 RDIMM prices are expected to increase by about 10% to 15% [1] - The acceleration of large cloud service providers in adopting high-capacity QLC eSSD has led to a supply shortage of certain QLC NAND products [1]

Summary of the Conference Call on NAND Industry and AI Impact Industry Overview - The conference call focuses on the NAND industry and its intersection with artificial intelligence (AI) technology, highlighting the expected growth and changes in market dynamics due to AI applications [1][2][9]. Key Insights - **AI's Entry into NAND**: The demand for NAND is expected to surge due to AI inference, with the overall addressable market projected to reach $29 billion by 2029. AI NAND is anticipated to account for 34% of the global NAND market by 2029 [1][2][9]. - **Supply Shortages**: A supply shortage in the NAND industry is expected to begin in the second half of 2026, following a prolonged period of oversupply since 2022. This shift is attributed to increased demand from cloud service providers and limitations in HDD capacity [2][10]. - **Market Dynamics**: The transition from traditional NAND to newer technologies like QLC eSSD and NL SSD is expected to reshape the market. The latter is projected to capture 5% of the market share by 2026, potentially leading to an 8% NAND shortage [2][10]. Company-Specific Insights - **SanDisk Corporation (SNDK.O)**: Target price raised from $70 to $96, identified as a top pick due to its favorable positioning in the AI NAND market [1][3]. - **KIOXIA and Samsung Electronics**: Both companies are expected to benefit significantly from the long-term growth trends in the NAND market [3][17]. - **Component Suppliers**: Companies like Phison and Longsys are rated overweight due to anticipated improvements in NAND pricing as supply tightens [3][17]. Additional Considerations - **Technological Innovations**: The introduction of high-bandwidth flash (HBF) and NL SSD technologies is expected to alleviate memory capacity bottlenecks in AI clusters, further driving NAND demand [2][12]. - **Earnings Projections**: The average earnings forecast for the preferred stocks in the NAND sector is projected to exceed market consensus by 26% for 2026, indicating a strong outlook for AI NAND growth [3][14]. - **HDD Market Impact**: The rise in AI-driven data requirements is expected to benefit HDD manufacturers like WDC and STX, as the total cost of ownership between HDD and SSD remains significantly different [3][17]. Conclusion - The NAND industry is poised for a significant transformation driven by AI applications, with expected supply shortages and technological advancements creating new investment opportunities. Companies like SanDisk, KIOXIA, and Samsung are well-positioned to capitalize on these trends, while component suppliers are also likely to see favorable market conditions.