消息面，9月12日，现货黄金一度升至3674.27美元/盎司，创下新的历史纪录，并首次突破1980年1月21 日创下的850美元/盎司峰值（按通胀调整约为3590美元）。 没有股票账户的投资者可关注国泰中证沪深港黄金产业股票ETF发起联接A（021673），国泰中证沪深 港黄金产业股票ETF发起联接C（021674）。 注：如提及个股仅供参考，不代表投资建议。指数/基金短期涨跌幅及历史表现仅供分析参考，不预示 未来表现。市场观点随市场环境变化而变动，不构成任何投资建议或承诺。文中提及指数仅供参考，不 构成任何投资建议，也不构成对基金业绩的预测和保证。如需购买相关基金产品，请选择与风险等级相 匹配的产品。基金有风险，投资需谨慎。 每日经济新闻 高盛在最新报告中称，央行持续购金、私人投资者加仓以及美元资产信任削弱，共同推动金价进入新阶 段。该行预计，到2025年底金价或升至3700美元，2026年中有望突破4000美元；若出现美元资产资金外 流，价格甚至可能触及4500至5000美元。 相关机构表示，长期来看，去美元化的趋势仍在进行时。近日美国财政部贝森特在华尔街日报刊文，指 责美联储通过货币政策过度干涉经济和产 ...

数据公布后，交易员加大了对美联储9月降息50个基点的押注。据CME"美联储观察"，美联储9月降息 50个基点的概率升至10%，降息25个基点的概率为90%。 没有股票账户的投资者可关注国泰中证沪深港黄金产业股票ETF发起联接A（021673），国泰中证沪深 港黄金产业股票ETF发起联接C（021674）。 相关机构表示，长期来看，去美元化的趋势仍在进行时。近日美国财政部贝森特在华尔街日报刊文，指 责美联储通过货币政策过度干涉经济和产业，从而失去了公众的信任，这成为行政部门与美联储之间的 最新一轮冲突；美国总统川普正通过任命亲信改组美联储，使该机构的独立性受到广泛质疑。展望后 市，对黄金的配置需求基于上述诸多因素或将持续增加，从而对金价构成支撑。投资者可通过黄金基金 ETF（518800）和黄金股票ETF（517400）布局相关机会。 黄金股票ETF（517400）跟踪的是SSH黄金股票指数（931238），该指数覆盖A股和港股市场，选取50 只涉及黄金采掘、冶炼及销售等业务的上市公司证券作为指数样本，以反映黄金全产业链相关上市公司 证券的整体表现。该指数偏中小市值风格且龙头效应显著，聚焦黄金产业链优质企业，具 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that gold prices are expected to rise due to new catalysts, particularly signals of interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve, which may lead to a reallocation of funds back into gold [1] - Since April, gold has been experiencing fluctuations at high levels, with political and policy risks causing funds to flow into other metals like silver, palladium, and copper [1] - The SSH Gold Stock Index, which the gold stock ETF (517400) tracks, includes 50 listed companies involved in gold mining, refining, and sales, reflecting the overall performance of the gold industry [1] Group 2 - The index components exhibit characteristics of both small and medium market capitalization and leading effects, indicating a high industry concentration [1] - Investors without stock accounts are advised to consider the Guotai CSI Shanghai-Shenzhen-Hong Kong Gold Industry Stock ETF Initiated Linkage C (021674) and A (021673) [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the independence of the Federal Reserve is being challenged, and the decline in real interest rates is driving a strong upward potential for gold [1] - The recent concerns expressed by Powell regarding weak employment data suggest that inflation levels will not slow down the Fed's future rate cuts, indicating a rapid decline in real interest rates [1] - There is optimism for a new round of price increases in gold [1] Group 2 - The gold stock ETF (517400) tracks the SSH Gold Stock Index (931238), which selects 50 listed companies involved in gold mining, refining, and sales from the A-share and Hong Kong markets, covering the entire gold industry chain [1] - The index components feature a mix of small and medium-sized market capitalization stocks along with leading companies, reflecting a high industry concentration [1] - Investors without stock accounts can consider the Guotai CSI Shanghai-Shenzhen-Hong Kong Gold Industry Stock ETF Initiated Linkage C (021674) and A (021673) [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article is that the Federal Reserve is expected to lower interest rates by 25 basis points in September, with further reductions anticipated in the next 3 to 6 months depending on upcoming data [1] - The expectation of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve has led to an increase in gold prices, driven by ongoing macroeconomic uncertainties and the enhanced safe-haven appeal of gold [1] - Long-term projections indicate that the monetary expansion and fiscal deficit monetization are challenging the credibility of the dollar, while global geopolitical instability is driving demand for gold as a safe asset [1] Group 2 - The SSH Gold Stock Index, which tracks 50 listed companies involved in gold mining, refining, and sales, reflects the overall performance of the gold industry and has a high industry concentration [1] - Investors without stock accounts can consider the Guotai Zhongzheng Shanghai-Shenzhen-Hong Kong Gold Industry Stock ETF linked funds, which provide access to the gold sector [1]

华鑫证券表示，鲍威尔在全球央行会议发布鸽派言论。美联储鲍威尔在杰克逊霍尔央行年会上发表重磅 讲话，认为当前的形势意味着，就业面临的下行风险上升。这种风险平衡的转变可能意味着需要降息。 关于劳动力市场，鲍威尔表示："总体来看，劳动力市场虽处于平衡，但这是一种因劳动力供需双双大 幅放缓所致的'奇特平衡'。这种异常形势暗示就业的下行风险正在增加。"关于关税对通胀的影响，鲍 威尔表示一种"合理的基准假设"是关税会导致物价水平"一次性"上涨，但这些影响需要时间才能完全体 现在经济中。 总结而言，鲍威尔发出鸽派发言以后，贵金属价格上扬。美联储仍处于降息周期，鲍威尔发言为贵金属 市场注入强心剂，看好黄金价格进一步上涨。 没有股票账户的投资者可关注国泰中证沪深港黄金产业股票ETF发起联接C（021674），国泰中证沪深 港黄金产业股票ETF发起联接A（021673）。 注：如提及个股仅供参考，不代表投资建议。指数/基金短期涨跌幅及历史表现仅供分析参考，不预示 未来表现。市场观点随市场环境变化而变动，不构成任何投资建议或承诺。文中提及指数仅供参考，不 构成任何投资建议，也不构成对基金业绩的预测和保证。如需购买相关基金产品，请选 ...

Core Insights - The U.S. non-farm payroll data for July was weaker than expected, raising concerns about the labor market, with unemployment rising to 4.2% and labor participation rate declining to 62.2% [1] - Despite the Federal Reserve signaling a hawkish stance in July, the release of the non-farm data has led to increased expectations for interest rate cuts [1] - The weak dollar environment is supporting precious metals, with gold prices rising by 0.79% during the week and the dollar index falling to 98.69 [1] Group 1: Economic Indicators - July non-farm payroll data was significantly revised down for May and June, indicating a weakening demand in the labor market [1] - Unemployment rate increased to 4.2%, while labor participation rate decreased to 62.2% [1] Group 2: Market Reactions - The market's expectation for interest rate cuts has intensified following the disappointing non-farm payroll data [1] - Gold prices have benefited from the weak dollar, reflecting a supportive environment for precious metals [1] Group 3: Investment Opportunities - Analysts recommend taking advantage of the current window for gold investments, anticipating a potential restart of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [1] - The SSH Gold Stock Index (931238) tracks companies involved in gold mining, production, and sales, providing an effective investment tool for those interested in the precious metals market [1] - Investors without stock accounts can consider the Guotai CSI Hong Kong-Shenzhen Gold Industry Stock ETF linked funds (021674 and 021673) [1]

没有股票账户的投资者可关注国泰中证沪深港黄金产业股票ETF发起联接A（021673），国泰中证沪深 港黄金产业股票ETF发起联接C（021674）。 注：如提及个股仅供参考，不代表投资建议。指数/基金短期涨跌幅及历史表现仅供分析参考，不预示 未来表现。市场观点随市场环境变化而变动，不构成任何投资建议或承诺。文中提及指数仅供参考，不 构成任何投资建议，也不构成对基金业绩的预测和保证。如需购买相关基金产品，请选择与风险等级相 匹配的产品。基金有风险，投资需谨慎。 国信证券指出，短期黄金价格有概率再度上冲，中长期依旧看多，地缘冲突、美元走弱与降息预期、非 美国家央行持续购金等多重逻辑继续支撑金价。 天风证券指出，美联储独立性丧失及政治干预风险加剧，可能复现70年代滞胀情景，为黄金长牛提供底 层逻辑支撑。7月非农数据大幅下修，反映美国经济下行压力，私营部门就业疲软凸显高利率挤出效 应，市场对9月降息预期升至近90%。联储鹰派理事提前辞职、就业统计部门换帅等事件进一步削弱数 据可信度与政策独立性，美元信用弱化强化黄金货币属性。当前非农下修与人事变动形成金融属性（降 息预期）与货币属性（美元走弱）共振，持续看好贵金属板块 ...

Group 1 - The long-term outlook indicates that the dollar credit system is under challenge due to excessive monetary issuance and the monetization of fiscal deficits, leading to increased demand for gold as a safe asset amid global geopolitical instability [1] - The trend of "de-dollarization" globally suggests that gold may become a new pricing anchor, providing upward momentum for precious metals [1] - The People's Bank of China continues to increase its gold reserves, reporting a total of 73.9 million ounces as of the end of June, with an increase of 70,000 ounces month-on-month, marking the eighth consecutive month of gold accumulation [1] Group 2 - The gold stock ETF (code: 517400) tracks the SSH Gold Stock Index (code: 931238), which is compiled by China Securities Index Co., Ltd., selecting 50 large-cap listed companies involved in gold mining, smelting, and sales from the mainland and Hong Kong markets [1] - The index constituents include gold mining companies and jewelry firms, reflecting significant industry concentration characteristics [1] - Investors without stock accounts can consider the Cathay CSI Shanghai-Shenzhen-Hong Kong Gold Industry Stock ETF Initiated Link C (021674) and Initiated Link A (021673) [1]

黄金股板块开盘上行，黄金股票ETF（517400）涨超2%。 华源证券表示，美国7月非农仅新增7.3万人，前两月数据大幅下修。美国7月非农新增就业岗位7.3万 个，远低于市场预期的11万个，同时5月、6月的新增就业岗位总数被大幅下调，较之前公布的水平合计 减少了25.8万个，修正后，分别仅有1.4万人和1.9万人。7月份非农就业人数增长低于预期、失业率小幅 上升，下半年预计美国货币政策变化将接力财政政策为黄金价格提供支撑，建议关注阶段性配置机会。 黄金股票ETF（代码：517400）跟踪的是SSH黄金股票指数（代码：931238），该指数由中证指数有限 公司编制，从内地与香港市场中选取50只市值较大、业务涉及黄金采掘、冶炼及销售的上市公司证券作 为指数样本，以反映黄金产业相关上市公司证券的整体表现。该指数成分股涵盖黄金矿企和珠宝公司等 细分领域，具有显著的行业集中特征。 没有股票账户的投资者可关注国泰中证沪深港黄金产业股票ETF发起联接C（021674），国泰中证沪深 港黄金产业股票ETF发起联接A（021673）。 注：如提及个股仅供参考，不代表投资建议。指数/基金短期涨跌幅及历史表现仅供分析参考，不预示 ...