中金公司：投资中国优质券商正当时 中国证券行业的成长受益于中国经济发展及资本市场改革，中资头部券商有望在"十五五"期间加速向国 际一流投行迈进、更好服务中国式现代化的同时实现自身业务规模、专业能力及盈利质效的提升，其长 期投资配置价值料将进一步凸显。 在今日券商晨会上，华西证券认为，太空算力产业链发展提速；中信建投认为，关注智能驾驶产业链； 中金公司认为，投资中国优质券商正当时。 华西证券：太空算力产业链发展提速 太空算力产业链贯通上中下游，企业合力推动技术创新，旨在构建天地一体化计算架构。其核心在于利 用太空太阳能与超低温环境，实现"天数天算"，大幅降低时延与数据传输量。上游领域，美国SpaceX的 Starlink V3卫星性能跃升，可回收技术持续降低成本。中国相关火箭回收尝试虽未成功，却是关键技术 探索。一箭多星方面，SpaceX创发射数量纪录，中国则强调高运载与精准分批释放技术。中游运营 中，星链依赖相控阵、动态调度与激光链路核心技术，已形成大规模商用星座并在实战中验证价值。中 国国网星座作为国家系统，采用双层轨道设计正式进入建设阶段。千帆星座则聚焦激光链路技术突破， 以实现高速率传输与全球覆盖，并面 ...

证券研究报告|行业研究周报 [Table_Date] 2025 年 12 月 28 日 [Table_Title] 太空算力新基建—太阳翼 计算机行业周报 [Table_Title2] 本周观点 （一）柔性太阳翼助力大规模星座建设 2025 年 12 月 26 日，长征八号甲于海南商业航天发射场成功发射 卫星互联网低轨 17 组卫星，任务隶属中国星网（GW）星座。该 发射场 2025 年发射成功率 100%，并计划 2026 年执行 20 至 30 次 发射。 国网星座规划约 1.3 万颗卫星，采用高低轨协同双层设计，旨在 提供低时延通信与高分辨率对地观测服务。低轨卫星运行在200- 2000 公里轨道，是构建卫星互联网的核心。在此背景下，柔性太 阳翼因能解决大发电面积与小收纳体积的矛盾，成为关键发展方 向。其重量可减轻 20%-40%，收纳体积缩小 60%以上，展开面积 显著扩大。 中国已发展出刚性、半刚性和柔性太阳翼。中国空间站应用了柔 性太阳翼，并采用世界首创的"二次展开"技术。风云四号 03 星采用独特的 T 型"单翅膀"太阳翼设计。银河航天成功发射了 全球首颗搭载卷式全柔性太阳翼的卫星，其可卷绕、高 ...

Core Insights - The concept of space data centers is transitioning from science fiction to reality, driven by the surge in demand for artificial intelligence and the structural limitations faced by terrestrial data centers [1] - SpaceX has confirmed its IPO plans for next year, aiming for a valuation of $1.5 trillion, with strong support from Elon Musk for deploying data centers in space [1] - Major investment banks like Morgan Stanley and Deutsche Bank are beginning to assess the feasibility of space data centers, focusing on engineering challenges rather than physical limitations [1][2] Technological Advantages - Space data centers offer significant advantages in energy, cooling, latency, and scalability, with solar panels in optimal orbits capable of generating 6-8 times more energy than terrestrial counterparts [3] - Cooling systems in space can eliminate the need for traditional water-cooling methods, which account for 40% of energy consumption in ground data centers [3] - Laser link transmission speeds in vacuum are over 40% faster than terrestrial fiber optics, enabling real-time processing of data in orbit [3] Cost and Engineering Challenges - Despite theoretical advantages, space data centers face high launch costs, with the reusable Falcon 9 rocket priced at approximately $70 million, leading to a cost of about $1,500 per kilogram [4] - Effective thermal management in space is complex, requiring innovative designs for passive heat dissipation due to the vacuum environment [4] - Radiation threats can accelerate chip aging, necessitating the use of "space-grade" hardware, which increases costs [4] Market Opportunities - Deutsche Bank predicts that if technology validation is successful, the scale of satellite constellations could reach hundreds to thousands by the 2030s, creating new market opportunities for launch and satellite manufacturing companies [2][7] - Companies like Planet Labs, Rocket Lab, and Intuitive Machines are positioned to benefit from the space data center concept, with existing partnerships and capabilities in satellite production and launch services [7][8] Private Sector Developments - Startups like Starcloud have secured over $20 million in seed funding, while Axiom Space plans to launch its first two orbital data center nodes by the end of 2025, having raised over $700 million [8] - Lonestar Data Holdings is developing lunar and space data center infrastructure, with its "Freedom" payload successfully landing on the moon via SpaceX [8]

Group 1 - The establishment of a dedicated regulatory body for commercial space in China marks a significant step in the development of the commercial space industry, with over 600 companies currently operating in the sector [1] - The "Action Plan for Promoting High-Quality and Safe Development of Commercial Space (2025-2027)" outlines four core objectives, including support for low-cost technologies, integration of civil and commercial standards, establishment of a national fund, and the creation of a comprehensive safety regulatory system [1] Group 2 - According to招商证券, the commercial space sector is expected to enter a phase of high-frequency launches starting in 2026 following the clarification of the policy framework [2] - The European Space Agency has approved its highest budget ever, totaling approximately €22.1 billion for the years 2026 to 2028, focusing on key scientific, exploratory, and technological projects, as well as increased investment in Earth observation, navigation, and telecommunications [2] Group 3 - Major companies are actively pursuing advancements in space computing, with Starcloud launching the Starcloud-1 satellite equipped with NVIDIA H100 GPU and plans for future satellite launches and a space data center [3] - Google has announced the Suncatcher project, aiming to launch satellites equipped with the latest Trillium TPU by 2027, forming an AI computing cluster of 81 satellites [3] - Elon Musk indicated that expanding the Starlink V3 satellite scale could enable the construction of large data centers in space, with ambitious deployment goals for data centers on the Moon [3] Group 4 - The space industry supply chain is categorized into three core segments: upstream (rocket launches, satellite manufacturing), midstream (constellation networking, in-orbit control), and downstream (emergency communication and diverse application scenarios) [3] - Key companies in the upstream and midstream sectors include Yunnan Zhenye (germanium substrates), Kaipuyun and Aerospace Electronics (laser communication), and various rocket manufacturers [3]

Core Insights - Elon Musk announced that the advent of Starship paves the way for large-scale deployment of solar-powered AI satellites, which he believes is the only path to achieve 1 terawatt (1TW) of AI computing power annually [1] - The energy supply shortage is a critical bottleneck for AI data center construction, with FTI Consulting predicting that energy demand for data centers in the U.S. will nearly double by 2027 [4] - Companies are increasingly considering building data centers in space due to the limitations of terrestrial power supply [4] Group 1: Space Data Centers - StarCloud successfully launched a satellite equipped with NVIDIA H100 chips and Google Gemini models, which will provide 100 times the GPU computing power of previous space computing facilities [4] - StarCloud plans to construct a 5-gigawatt orbital data center with large solar and cooling battery panels, measuring approximately 4 kilometers in width and length [4] - The space data center will not require water for cooling and will not depend on batteries or backup power, potentially offering unlimited low-cost renewable energy [4] Group 2: Google’s Initiatives - Google is exploring the idea of equipping its Tensor Processing Units (TPUs) on satellites with solar panels that can generate power almost continuously, with an efficiency eight times that of similar panels on Earth [5] - This initiative, named "Project Suncatcher," aims to establish the first space data center, with plans to launch prototype satellites by 2027 in collaboration with Planet [5] Group 3: Industry Trends - The U.S. has launched over 10,000 satellites, with significant implications for the ongoing conflict in Ukraine, prompting expectations for accelerated launch schedules in China [6] - The commercial aerospace sector is anticipated to experience significant growth in the coming years, with strong performance observed in the A-share commercial aerospace sector recently [6]

Core Viewpoint - The commercial aerospace sector in China is experiencing a significant surge, driven by recent technological advancements, supportive government policies, and competitive dynamics in the global market [1][4][5]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The A-share commercial aerospace sector saw a sharp rise, with companies like Shanghai Huguang hitting the daily limit and others like Aerospace Zhizhuang and Shanghai Hanxun also experiencing gains [1][2]. - Analysts attribute this sudden market movement to three main factors: successful tests of reusable rockets, supportive government plans, and international developments in satellite technology [1][4]. Group 2: Technological Advancements - Star River Dynamics successfully completed the ground testing of the Zhishen-1 reusable liquid rocket's first-stage propulsion system, marking a significant milestone towards its maiden flight [4]. - The Zhishen-1 is designed for at least 25 reuses and targets the large satellite launch market, indicating a shift towards more sustainable space operations [4]. Group 3: Government Policies - The 14th Five-Year Plan emphasizes the construction of a "strong aerospace nation," highlighting the importance of commercial aerospace alongside other sectors [1][4]. - Future government reports are expected to further promote the development of commercial aerospace and related industries as new growth engines for the economy [4][5]. Group 4: Global Competition - The global commercial aerospace landscape is intensifying, with the U.S. leading in technological innovation and market presence, while China is rapidly catching up [5][6]. - The competition for satellite orbits and frequency resources is becoming critical, with countries recognizing the strategic value of low Earth orbit and satellite communication systems [6]. Group 5: Market Potential - The global commercial aerospace market is projected to reach $480.3 billion by 2024, accounting for 78% of the global aerospace economy [5]. - China's commercial aerospace market is expected to grow from 324.4 billion yuan in 2017 to 713.3 billion yuan by 2024, reflecting a compound annual growth rate of 11.9% [5].

Core Viewpoint - The commercial aerospace sector in China is experiencing a significant surge, driven by recent developments in reusable rocket technology, supportive government policies, and competitive dynamics in the global market [1][2][4]. Group 1: Recent Developments - Beijing's Xinghe Power Aerospace successfully completed the ground testing of the first stage power system for the reusable liquid rocket, Zhishen-1, marking the completion of all major ground tests and preparing for its maiden flight [2][5]. - The successful static ignition test of the reusable rocket Zhuque-3 has also been completed, indicating readiness for its first launch [5]. - The commercial aerospace concept has gained momentum, with several companies like Shanghai Huguang and others experiencing significant stock price increases [1][4]. Group 2: Policy Support - The 14th Five-Year Plan emphasizes the construction of a manufacturing powerhouse, quality powerhouse, aerospace powerhouse, and other strong nations, highlighting the importance of commercial aerospace [2][6]. - The 2024 Government Work Report aims to actively develop commercial aerospace and low-altitude economy as new growth engines, further reinforcing the policy framework for the sector [6]. Group 3: Global Competition - Elon Musk announced plans to expand SpaceX's Starlink V3 satellite scale and establish data centers in space to address the growing demand for computing power in the AI era, indicating a rising interest in space-based computing resources [2][6]. - The U.S. has launched over 10,000 satellites, significantly impacting global communications, and China is expected to accelerate its launch schedule in the coming years [4][9]. Group 4: Market Potential - The global commercial aerospace market is projected to reach $480.3 billion by 2024, accounting for 78% of the global aerospace economy [9]. - China's commercial aerospace market is expected to grow from 324.44 billion yuan in 2017 to 713.32 billion yuan by 2024, with a compound annual growth rate of 11.9% [9]. - The competition for satellite orbits and frequency resources is intensifying, with countries recognizing the strategic value of low Earth orbit and frequency resources [9]. Group 5: Future Outlook - By the end of 2025, China is anticipated to witness a series of maiden flights for various reusable rockets, including those from China Aerospace Science and Technology Corporation and other private companies [10].

Core Insights - The construction of data centers in space is becoming a viable solution for addressing the energy supply constraints faced by terrestrial data centers, with predictions indicating that energy demand for U.S. data centers will nearly double by 2027 [1][3] Group 1: Industry Trends - Major tech companies, including Google and SpaceX, are exploring the feasibility of building scalable machine learning computing systems in space, with Google's "Suncatcher" initiative leading the charge [3][5] - SpaceX plans to expand its Starlink V3 satellite capabilities to facilitate the construction of data centers in space, while Jeff Bezos anticipates that within the next 10 to 20 years, humans will be able to build gigawatt-scale data centers in space [3][4] Group 2: Technological Advancements - Starcloud is set to launch a satellite equipped with NVIDIA H100 GPUs, marking the first instance of advanced data center GPUs being deployed in space, with the satellite expected to provide 100 times the GPU computing power of previous space computing facilities [4] - The potential for unlimited low-cost renewable energy in space is highlighted as a significant advantage, with Starcloud's data center projected to save 10 times the carbon dioxide emissions compared to terrestrial data centers [4][5] Group 3: Future Projections - Industry experts predict that within the next decade, space could emerge as a primary location for new data centers, with the cost of building these facilities expected to decrease significantly [6][7] - Historical data suggests that by the mid-2030s, launch costs could drop below $200 per kilogram, making the operational costs of space data centers comparable to those of ground-based facilities [6][7]

Core Viewpoint - Elon Musk announced that SpaceX will expand the scale of Starlink V3 satellites and begin constructing data centers in space to address the growing demand for computing power in the AI era [1][3]. Group 1: Space-Based Computing - The interest in space-based computing is rapidly increasing due to the significant growth in computing power demand driven by artificial intelligence [3]. - SpaceX's current Starlink V2 mini-satellites have a maximum downlink capacity of approximately 100 Gbps, while the V3 satellites are expected to increase this capacity tenfold to 1 Tbps [3][5]. Group 2: Unique Value of Space-Based Data Centers - Space-based data centers are modular computing infrastructures deployed in orbit, designed to process massive amounts of data directly in space, overcoming physical expansion limitations faced by ground-based data centers [5][7]. - By utilizing efficient solar arrays, space-based data centers can generate power from solar energy, achieving five times the power generation per unit area compared to ground facilities [5][12]. Group 3: Advantages Over Traditional Data Centers - Space-based data centers exhibit disruptive advantages in technology architecture, cost structure, deployment mode, energy efficiency, and scalability compared to traditional ground data centers [10][12]. - The total cost for operating a 40 MW cluster in space for ten years is estimated at approximately $8.2 million, significantly lower than the $167 million cost for a similar ground-based operation [12][13]. Group 4: Technical Challenges - Key technical challenges for space-based computing include radiation resistance and hardware reliability, heat dissipation system design, stable energy supply, communication bottlenecks, and launch costs [14][15][20]. - Solutions being explored include using military-grade equipment to withstand radiation, innovative cooling systems, and large solar arrays for energy generation [15][17]. Group 5: Major Players in Space-Based Computing - Major players in the space-based computing sector include startups like Starcloud, Axiom Space, and Lonestar, as well as tech giants like NVIDIA, Amazon, and Microsoft [21][22]. - Starcloud aims to launch the first AI satellite equipped with NVIDIA H100 chips, targeting the construction of a gigawatt-level orbital data center [21]. Group 6: Industry Chain Overview - The upstream of the space-based computing industry chain involves satellite manufacturers and launch service providers, including companies like Maxar, Thales Alenia, and SpaceX [23]. - The midstream includes companies providing space-hardened computing hardware and high-speed communication technologies, while the downstream focuses on applications that convert technological advantages into productivity [24].