每周投资策略 产品及投资方案部 ｜2026年2月2日 中信证券财富管理 (香港) CITIC Securities Wealth Management (HK) 投资策略 每周投资策略 | 上周环球 大类资产表现 | (1) 印度市场焦点 | (2) 英国市场焦点 | (3) 澳大利亚市场焦点 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 宏观环境趋稳， | 預期英伦银行 | 本周议息会议有75%概率 | | | 经济有望复苏 | 本次议息按兵不动 | 加息25个基点 | | | 股票 | 股票 | 股票 | | 本周主要地区 | 等待情绪回暖； | 估值修复驱动，盈利增速向上； | 首选澳大利亚资源股； | | 经济数据公布日程 | Eternal；Vedanta | 巴克莱 ；倫敦交易所 | Northern Star；力拓集团 | | | ETF | ETF | ETF | | | 安硕核心SENSEX印度ETF | iShares MSCI英國ETF | iShares安硕MSCI澳大利亚ETF | | 资料来源：中信证券财富管理 (香港) | | | | 1 上周环球 股市表现 特 ...

Group 1: Japan Market Focus - The election of Fumio Kishida as Japan's first female Prime Minister is expected to influence market dynamics, with a focus on fiscal expansion and industrial policy [12][13]. - Kishida's government plans to implement measures to alleviate inflation, including tax adjustments and energy subsidies, while also promoting nuclear energy and reviewing social security policies [13]. - The market has reacted positively to Kishida's election, with a notable rise in Japanese stocks, although concerns about fiscal discipline remain [19]. Group 2: Specific Companies in Japan - Tokyo Electron, a leading semiconductor manufacturing equipment provider, is expected to benefit from the government's focus on AI and semiconductor industries, with a target price of 32,500 JPY [22]. - Kajima Corporation, a major construction company, is positioned to gain from increased government spending on infrastructure, with a target price of 5,300 JPY [22]. Group 3: South Korea Market Focus - The South Korean economy is anticipated to show strong growth in Q3, supported by robust export performance and a stable inflation rate, with the KOSPI index expected to rise further [35][42]. - Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix are highlighted as key players, with optimistic forecasts for their semiconductor businesses, particularly in DRAM and HBM markets [46]. Group 4: Australia Market Focus - The Australian labor market is showing signs of weakness, which may lead to a rate cut in November, impacting mining companies positively due to rising resource prices [58][60]. - Australian mining companies are expected to benefit from the global trend of resource nationalism, particularly in critical minerals like zircon and lithium, which Australia produces in significant quantities [60].

Group 1: Australia Market Focus - The short-term inflation rebound does not change the expectation of interest rate cuts in Q4, with the Australian CPI rising to 3.0% in August, up from 2.8% in July, exceeding market expectations of 2.9% [17] - The Australian economy showed a strong performance with Q2 GDP growth of 1.8%, surpassing the market consensus of 1.6%, driven by domestic demand and government spending [14] - The commodity upcycle opens further upside for the Australian materials sector, with a focus on companies like Northern Star and Lynas [19][24] Group 2: Northern Star and Lynas - Northern Star (NST AU) is expected to have strong production growth prospects, with a target price of AUD 24.7, supported by a robust balance sheet and a significant stock buyback plan [24] - Lynas (LYC AU) is positioned as a strategic player in the rare earths market, benefiting from high demand in high-end electronics and clean energy sectors, with a focus on ESG principles [24] Group 3: Thailand Market Focus - Thailand's GDP was boosted by pre-emptive shipments before tariff implementation, highlighting structural industry opportunities, particularly in companies like CP ALL and Bangkok Dusit Medical Services [39]

Group 1: US Market Focus - The core commodity prices are expected to reflect tariff impacts more significantly starting mid-year, with a bullish outlook for US stocks in the second half of the year [7][16]. - The Federal Reserve maintained the policy interest rate at 3.9% during the June meeting, aligning with market expectations, while adjusting inflation and unemployment forecasts upward and economic growth forecasts downward [9][12]. - The upcoming release of the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index is anticipated to show a year-on-year increase of 2.3%, with core PCE expected to rise to 2.6% [16] Group 2: Company Insights - Circle Internet, a major stablecoin issuer, has issued over $60 billion in USDC, with a trading volume of $25 trillion, benefiting from the evolving regulatory landscape in the US [41]. - Robinhood is expected to continue benefiting from the US stock market and cryptocurrency trends, with a focus on enhancing user experience and product offerings, which may lead to market share growth [41]. - The SPDR S&P 500 ETF aims to replicate the performance of the S&P 500 index, which includes companies from all 11 GICS sectors, providing diversified exposure to large-cap US stocks [42]. Group 3: Sector Performance - The S&P 500's 25-year revenue and earnings growth forecasts have been adjusted downwards, reflecting market pricing in of tariff tensions and economic slowdown [27][35]. - The technology sector is highlighted for its strong growth momentum and reasonable valuation, while utilities and healthcare sectors are also recommended due to their dividend characteristics and growth potential from new treatments [37].

Group 1: China Market Focus - The report highlights the importance of policy packages in stabilizing market expectations amid trade tensions, with a focus on stocks like Sungrow Power and Heng Rui Pharmaceutical [9][15][22] - The report emphasizes the potential for growth in the energy storage system (ESS) sector, particularly for Sungrow Power, due to increasing demand for grid upgrades in Europe [23] - Heng Rui Pharmaceutical is noted for its strong innovation capabilities, with expectations for record revenue and profit in 2024, driven by a significant share of innovative drug sales [23] Group 2: Japan Market Focus - The report indicates that Japan's economic growth is being hampered by trade wars, with a focus on stable high-dividend stocks [30][32] - The anticipated performance of high-dividend stocks such as KDDI and MS&AD Insurance is highlighted, as they are expected to continue to perform well despite economic uncertainties [41] - The report mentions that if Japan cannot secure tariff reductions from the U.S., it may face significant political risks [41] Group 3: Australia Market Focus - The report discusses the Labor Party's significant election victory and its historical correlation with strong performance in the energy and materials sectors [46][50] - Northern Star and Lynas Rare Earths are identified as key stocks that may benefit from increased demand for resources, particularly in the context of global shifts away from reliance on Chinese supply [56] - The report notes that historically, the Australian stock market has seen an average increase of 7.5% in the year following a Labor victory, with energy and materials sectors performing particularly well [56]