新兴市场股票正逐渐成为今年以来全球股票市场最热门的投资与交易主题之一，并且全球最顶级基金经理们愈发偏好广义上的新兴市场资 产——包含新兴市场股票、债券以及主权货币类资产。花旗集团的股票分析师团队表示，来自全球最大规模的那些资产管理机构的基金经 理们已大幅增加对亚洲、拉丁美洲以及欧洲、中东和非洲新兴市场股票资产的多头仓位。 华尔街金融巨头花旗集团(Citigroup Inc.)的分析师们在审阅投资型基金们已公开发布的展望后表示，全球最大规模的那些资产管理机构—— 累计管理着逾20万亿美元资产，正在大举买入新兴市场股票标的/新兴市场ETF、本币债券甚至某些信用类资产，押注强劲的全球经济增长 态势、受益于全球AI基建狂潮的算力链高度集中和持续走弱的美元将利好新兴市场资产。 花旗集团的股票分析师团队表示，基金经理们已大幅增加对亚洲、拉丁美洲以及欧洲、中东和非洲新兴市场股票资产的多头仓位。新兴市 场债券则是他们最偏好的久期资产押注，与基金经理们对于美国国债和核心欧洲主权债券的空头仓位形成鲜明对比。花旗表示，在信用市 场中，新兴市场公司债务获得最大幅度的超配，而美国投资级债券仍是热门的低配或者减持对象。 即使本周全球市场 ...

Group 1 - The U.S. Supreme Court's ruling against Trump's tariffs has led to a strong rally in emerging market assets, with a benchmark index for emerging market currencies reversing weekly losses and an emerging market ETF reaching a historical high [1][5] - Michael Hartnett, a strategist at Bank of America, emphasizes that emerging markets are likely to outperform the U.S. market amid the decline of "American exceptionalism" and a shift in global growth focus [1][7] - The iShares MSCI Emerging Markets ETF has seen a rare "ten consecutive days of gains," reaching a historical peak, with trading volume significantly above its 20-day average [1][4] Group 2 - The strong performance of key stocks like TSMC, Samsung, and SK Hynix has contributed to the iShares MSCI Emerging Markets ETF's rise, which has increased by 14% in 2026, outperforming the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 [4] - The ongoing global AI boom and the "sell America" narrative have positioned the Korean stock market as one of the best-performing markets globally, with a 40% increase in its benchmark index this year [4][8] - The Supreme Court's tariff decision is seen as a catalyst for emerging market currencies, highlighting significant uncertainty in U.S. government policies and driving diversification trends [5][8] Group 3 - Recent U.S. economic data indicates weakness, with GDP growth falling short of expectations and inflation measures exceeding forecasts, creating mixed signals for the Federal Reserve's interest rate outlook [6] - Despite geopolitical tensions, most Wall Street strategists believe that these will not escalate into a full-scale war, allowing emerging markets to maintain their strong upward momentum [6][7] - The uncertainty surrounding U.S. fiscal policies and high valuations in the U.S. market are prompting large investors to seek diversification in emerging markets, which are seen as more attractive in terms of valuation and growth expectations [8]

Group 1 - The core view of the article is that the global economy is expected to advance more robustly than investors anticipate by 2026, with stronger growth in the US and China, driven by AI investments and a rotation in market leadership [1][21] - Bank of America predicts that the US GDP growth will exceed market expectations, forecasting an annualized growth of 2.4% for 2026, supported by fiscal measures from the Inflation Reduction Act, restored incentives from the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act, favorable trade policies, strong business investment, and the lagging effects of Federal Reserve rate cuts [3][23] - The macroeconomic fundamentals are not as weak as many investors believe, according to Bank of America [4][24] Group 2 - The AI investment cycle is expected to continue constructively, with capital expenditures related to data centers, chip manufacturing, and automation technologies significantly boosting GDP and remaining key growth drivers in 2026 [5][25] - Emerging markets are likely to benefit from a favorable macro environment, with a combination of a weaker dollar, declining US interest rates, and soft oil prices alleviating financing pressures and leading to increased capital inflows [6][26] - Bank of America expresses optimism about China's growth prospects, citing positive signals from recent trade negotiations and the gradual effectiveness of stimulus measures [8][28] Group 3 - The S&P 500 is projected to see a 14% increase in earnings per share (EPS) in 2026, but stock price growth is expected to be limited to 4% to 5%, with a target level set at 7100 points [9][29] - The decline in US Treasury yields may be more pronounced than expected, with predictions for the 10-year Treasury yield to be between 4% and 4.25% by the end of 2026, influenced by anticipated rate cuts from the Federal Reserve [11][31] - US housing prices are expected to remain stable, with potential upward risks as mortgage rates decline alongside Federal Reserve rate cuts [13][34] Group 4 - Market volatility is anticipated to increase as investors gain clarity on how AI will reshape economic fundamentals, potentially leading to significant fluctuations across asset classes [15][35] - Private credit returns are expected to cool down, with total returns projected to drop from approximately 9% in 2025 to about 5.4% in 2026, prompting investors to consider high-yield bonds or other income-generating assets [17][37] - Copper prices are expected to continue rising in 2026, supported by ongoing supply constraints and improved global demand [19][39]

Group 1 - Emerging market stocks have unexpectedly become a significant source of returns for U.S. traders during the volatility of the S&P 500 index caused by President Trump's trade war [1] - The Cboe volatility index (VIX) has been higher than the Cboe emerging markets ETF volatility index for 48 out of the past 54 trading days, indicating increased investor interest in emerging markets to mitigate risks [1] - The iShares MSCI Emerging Markets ETF (EEM) has risen by 14% year-to-date, marking the largest excess return relative to the S&P 500 since 2009 [1] Group 2 - Speculators are preparing for potential increased volatility in emerging markets as the 90-day "tariff pause" initiated by the Trump administration is set to expire [4] - The number of put options open contracts relative to call options for the emerging markets ETF is nearing its highest level since December of the previous year [4] - Market strategist Matt Maley anticipates a short-term pullback in emerging market stocks relative to the S&P 500 index [4] Group 3 - Positive developments in trade negotiations could boost the S&P 500 index, as significant progress has been reported in talks with China [7] - Investors are pricing in two rate cuts by the Federal Reserve this year, hoping that Trump's tax cuts will drive corporate earnings and domestic economic growth [7] - The current upward momentum in the U.S. stock market may diminish the relative advantage of emerging markets, with the S&P 500 nearing historical highs [7] Group 4 - A weaker dollar may continue to benefit emerging markets, as their stock valuations remain cheaper compared to U.S. stocks [7] - Matt Maley suggests that emerging market stocks may be available at more attractive prices in late June [7] - The uncertainty surrounding tariffs has become a stabilizing force for emerging market assets, with varying outcomes expected from trade negotiations across the 24 countries covered by the MSCI Emerging Markets Index [7]