美国GDP增速将高于市场预期 来源：金十 美国银行全球研究部预测，全球经济将在2026年以比投资者预想中更猛的势头向前推进。他们预计美国 和中国的增长都会更强劲，人工智能（AI）驱动的投资将持续发力，而且市场领跑者的地位也将发生 轮换。 在美股和国际市场经历了2025年的强劲上涨后，投资者普遍开始疑惑：这波牛市到底还能走多远？ 美银全球研究部负责人坎迪斯·布朗宁（Candace Browning）表示："尽管当前担忧声不断，但我们团队 对全球经济和AI的发展依旧持乐观态度。" 对于2026年的美国经济，美银的态度比绝大多数市场人士都要积极得多。 她认为，关于人工智能泡沫即将破裂的担忧"言过其实了"，并预计2026年美国和中国的GDP增速将超出 市场普遍预期。 以下是美银对2026年的10项核心预测： 美银高级经济学家阿迪蒂亚·巴夫（Aditya Bhave）预测，美国年化GDP将增长2.4%。这背后的主要推力 包括《大而美的法案》带来的财政支持、重新恢复的《减税与就业法案》激励措施、更友好的贸易政 策、持续强劲的商业投资，以及美联储降息政策的滞后效应。 在美银看来，宏观经济的基本面并没有许多投资者想象的那么疲 ...

Group 1 - Emerging market stocks have unexpectedly become a significant source of returns for U.S. traders during the volatility of the S&P 500 index caused by President Trump's trade war [1] - The Cboe volatility index (VIX) has been higher than the Cboe emerging markets ETF volatility index for 48 out of the past 54 trading days, indicating increased investor interest in emerging markets to mitigate risks [1] - The iShares MSCI Emerging Markets ETF (EEM) has risen by 14% year-to-date, marking the largest excess return relative to the S&P 500 since 2009 [1] Group 2 - Speculators are preparing for potential increased volatility in emerging markets as the 90-day "tariff pause" initiated by the Trump administration is set to expire [4] - The number of put options open contracts relative to call options for the emerging markets ETF is nearing its highest level since December of the previous year [4] - Market strategist Matt Maley anticipates a short-term pullback in emerging market stocks relative to the S&P 500 index [4] Group 3 - Positive developments in trade negotiations could boost the S&P 500 index, as significant progress has been reported in talks with China [7] - Investors are pricing in two rate cuts by the Federal Reserve this year, hoping that Trump's tax cuts will drive corporate earnings and domestic economic growth [7] - The current upward momentum in the U.S. stock market may diminish the relative advantage of emerging markets, with the S&P 500 nearing historical highs [7] Group 4 - A weaker dollar may continue to benefit emerging markets, as their stock valuations remain cheaper compared to U.S. stocks [7] - Matt Maley suggests that emerging market stocks may be available at more attractive prices in late June [7] - The uncertainty surrounding tariffs has become a stabilizing force for emerging market assets, with varying outcomes expected from trade negotiations across the 24 countries covered by the MSCI Emerging Markets Index [7]