黄奇帆表示，私募基金、公募基金，以及各种产业基金是重要的企业股权资本金补充机制，但并未改变企业70%负债率、30%股权资本金（占比）的格局。 一方面，对于微观企业，凡有基金投入的地方都会出现股权结构变化；另一方面，从宏观角度来说，数十万亿元的私募股权基金、公募基金、产业基金依然 是从工商企业本身的股权中"调出来的"。 "中国资本市场讨论不要老在证券、上市这一个范围，资本市场实际上既包含企业股权投资基金、股权补充机制的环节，也包含证券市场本身这个环节，两 个'轮子'一起转。"1月10日，在第三十届（2026年度）中国资本市场论坛上，中国国家创新与发展战略研究会学术委员会常务副主席、重庆市原市长黄奇帆 围绕资本市场改革分享了重要观点。 他强调，资本市场对一个国家、一个社会来说包含两个"轮子"：一个是上市公司、证券公司，以及股民等形成的股票市场；另一个是全社会工商企业的资本 金形成和补充机制，涉及到股权投资基金的发展，是超越股票市场的一个更大的范围。 在黄奇帆看来，资本市场两个"轮子"一起转，形成国民经济的一个重要推动力。解决中国企业效益问题和风险问题，需要形成长期的、可持续的企业资本金 补充机制，额外调度资金降低 ...

Core Insights - The next generation of AI technology paradigms is expected to focus on Autonomous Learning, which allows models to evolve independently without heavy reliance on human-annotated data and offline pre-training [1][2] - The potential for innovation in AI is seen as high in China, with the ability to quickly replicate and improve upon discoveries, contingent on breakthroughs in key technologies like lithography machines [3] Group 1: Next Generation Paradigms - Autonomous Learning is a trending concept that enables models to generate learning signals and optimize through closed-loop iterations, leading to continuous evolution [1] - The definition and understanding of Autonomous Learning vary among experts, emphasizing its dependence on specific data and task contexts [1] - Current advancements in AI, such as Claude's ability to self-improve by transforming 95% of its own code, indicate that self-learning is already occurring, albeit with efficiency limitations [1] Group 2: Market Leaders and Innovations - OpenAI is viewed as the most likely candidate to lead the next paradigm shift in AI, despite facing challenges in maintaining its innovative edge [2] - The current Reinforcement Learning (RL) paradigm is still in its early stages, with significant potential yet to be realized, focusing on "autonomous evolution" and "proactivity" [2] - The introduction of proactivity in AI raises new safety concerns, necessitating the instillation of appropriate values and constraints [2] Group 3: China's Position in AI - The probability of Chinese teams leading in AI innovation in the next three to five years is considered high, given their ability to quickly replicate and enhance discoveries [3] - Key challenges for China include production capacity and software ecosystem development, alongside the need for a more mature B2B market [3] - Cultural and economic factors may hinder the willingness to pursue groundbreaking innovations in China [3]

设立股权引导基金，规模可达四五十万亿元。 他强调，资本市场对一个国家、一个社会来说包含两个"轮子"：一个是上市公司、证券公司，以及股民等形成的股票市场；另一个是全社会工商企业的资本 金形成和补充机制，涉及到股权投资基金的发展，是超越股票市场的一个更大的范围。 在黄奇帆看来，资本市场两个"轮子"一起转，形成国民经济的一个重要推动力。解决中国企业效益问题和风险问题，需要形成长期的、可持续的企业资本金 补充机制，额外调度资金降低企业负债率。 两个"轮子"要一起转 "我们国家长期存在的问题就是工商企业股权资本不够、补充机制不够，（往往）起步的时候够了，过五年、十年又不够了，没有形成长远的补充机制。"黄 奇帆说。 他提到，上世纪90年代由国家主导的国有企业破产核销坏账和债转股，以及股票市场的建设发展，对补充企业资本起到了重要作用。 "到2000年的时候，中国上市公司的资本金一度达到70%以上，国有企业资本金也都在50%以上，这个时候是比较丰富的。但是，过了十年，不管国有企业 还是民营企业，包括上市公司在内，我国的企业负债率都在70%左右，它们的债务资本是净资本的200%，比美国、欧洲工商企业30%～40%的负债率高了1 ...

Group 1 - The next generation of AI technology paradigms is expected to focus on Autonomous Learning, which allows models to evolve independently without heavy reliance on labeled data and offline pre-training [2] - Autonomous Learning is not a universal methodology but is highly dependent on specific data and task scenarios, with ongoing discussions about its definition and implementation among industry experts [2] - Current advancements in AI, such as Claude's ability to self-improve by transforming 95% of its code, indicate that self-learning is already occurring, albeit with efficiency limitations [2] Group 2 - OpenAI is considered the most likely candidate to lead the next paradigm innovation, despite experiencing various commercial changes that may have diluted its innovative edge [3] - The current Reinforcement Learning (RL) paradigm is still in its early stages, with significant potential yet to be realized, and the next paradigm will emphasize "self-evolution" and "proactivity" [3] - Introducing proactivity in AI may lead to new safety concerns, necessitating the instillation of correct values and constraints, similar to educating a child [3] Group 3 - A significant paradigm shift is anticipated by 2026, with developments in continuous learning, memory, and multimodal capabilities, driven by improvements in computational power in academia [4] - The probability of Chinese teams leading in AI innovation in the next three to five years is considered high, given their ability to quickly replicate and improve upon discovered technologies [4] - Key challenges for China include breakthroughs in lithography technology, capacity, and software ecosystem development, alongside the need for a more mature B2B market [4]

短期不必把两个市场挂钩挂得很紧。 随着人民币汇率波动加大，市场对股汇联动的关注度有所提升，关于"人民币汇率重估将推动中国资产重估"等说法的声量渐高。 "这其中存在三大误解。"1月10日，中银证券全球首席经济学家管涛在第三十届（2026年度）中国资本市场论坛上提示，汇率更多时候起到"减震器"作用， 短期内不必把两个市场挂钩挂得很紧。 首先是关于股市汇市同涨同跌的误解。管涛以日本和印度举例说，股市和汇市虽然都属于资产价格，但是又受到不同因素的影响，某些时候是同涨同跌，大 部分时候是被各自的因素驱动。"股市上涨、资产价格重估就一定要汇率上涨"的观点站不住脚。 其次是关于"汇率升值就意味着资本流入，汇率贬值就意味着资本外流"的误解。"实际上，影响资本流动的决定因素不是汇率，是国际收支结构。"管涛举例 说，2025年美国和中国的情况都可以证伪上述观点。 "比如，（去年）美国是结构性的贸易逆差，所以美国就是资本流入。而且不要以为去年美元跌了，美国资本流入就少了，去年前三个季度美元指数跌了 9.8%，根据美国财政部的国际资本流动报告（TIC），美国去年证券投资项下的资本净流入同比增长38%，其中私人外资净流入同比增长83% ...

Core Insights - Rolex officially launched its Certified Pre-Owned program in mainland China, starting with a store in Nanjing, marking its entry into the second-hand watch market [1] - The program aims to standardize the second-hand market, enhancing the value of pre-owned Rolex watches and providing a two-year warranty [2][4] - The second-hand watch market is experiencing a shift, with luxury brands like Rolex recognizing its potential and entering the space to improve market transparency [4][5] Group 1 - Rolex's Certified Pre-Owned program is expected to generate over $500 million in sales by 2025 [1] - The program requires that certified second-hand watches be sold for at least two years and undergo official inspection and refurbishment [2] - The average price of Rolex watches with the official RCPO certification is at least 25% higher than those sold by non-certified dealers [3] Group 2 - The high-end watch market is facing a downturn, with Swiss watch exports declining by 7.3% to 2.2 billion Swiss francs in November 2025 [5] - The entry of luxury brands into the second-hand market is seen as a way to boost confidence and encourage consumers to purchase new watches [4] - The second-hand market's growth is expected to positively impact the sales of new watches, as a well-functioning second-hand market can enhance the perceived value of new purchases [4]

Core Viewpoint - Rolex has officially launched its certified pre-owned watch program in mainland China, aiming to regulate the secondary market, enhance transparency, and support primary watch sales [1][3]. Group 1: Launch of Certified Pre-Owned Program - The Rolex Certified Pre-Owned program was introduced in mainland China at the beginning of the year, with the first store operated by Oriental Watch in Nanjing [1]. - This program allows consumers to purchase refurbished and guaranteed pre-owned Rolex watches through authorized dealers, with a two-year warranty [1][3]. - The initiative began in Switzerland in late 2022 and has since expanded to major global markets, with plans to enter Hong Kong in October 2024 [1]. Group 2: Market Dynamics and Sales Projections - The high-end watch market is experiencing a cooling trend, prompting Rolex to adapt its strategies; sales from the certified pre-owned program are projected to exceed $500 million by 2025 [3]. - According to a report by Morgan Stanley and Luxe Consult, Rolex's sales are expected to surpass 10.5 billion Swiss francs in 2024, capturing a market share of 32% [4]. - Rolex's production capacity is one million units per year, establishing it as a significant player in the luxury watch industry [4]. Group 3: Pricing and Market Transparency - The introduction of the certified pre-owned program is expected to enhance market transparency, as it standardizes pricing and quality assessments for pre-owned watches [3][8]. - Certified pre-owned Rolex watches are priced at least 25% higher than non-certified counterparts, with dealers determining final pricing based on local demand and costs, potentially leading to a premium of 15% to 40% [7]. - The secondary market for Rolex watches is currently at a historical high, with the Rolex price index fluctuating since its peak of over $40,000 in March 2022 [7]. Group 4: Industry Response and Future Outlook - Other luxury watch brands are also entering the pre-owned market, recognizing its potential to drive primary sales by ensuring the value retention of second-hand watches [8]. - The Swiss watch industry is facing challenges, with a reported 7.3% decline in exports in November 2025, prompting secondary market players to adopt competitive pricing strategies [9]. - The long-term impact of Rolex's initiative may help rebuild confidence in the luxury second-hand market, particularly for new buyers, while experienced collectors may still find better deals in the secondary market [9].

Group 1 - The core argument emphasizes that limiting competition and reducing supply in response to economic downturns may further weaken demand by suppressing income and expectations [1] - The discussion highlights the importance of understanding industrial advantages, demand constraints, and macroeconomic policy orientation in the context of China's economic structural transformation and changing internal and external environments [1] - The speaker, a chief economist, points out that China's manufacturing, particularly in green industries and artificial intelligence, exhibits typical characteristics of economies of scale [2] Group 2 - The speaker notes that since the Industrial Revolution, economies of scale have been a core driver of long-term economic growth, characterized as "dynamic economies of scale" that evolve with technological progress and innovation [1] - It is emphasized that merely understanding economies of scale from the supply side is insufficient; the ability to translate scale advantages into real growth depends critically on effective demand matching [1] - Historical experiences indicate that addressing economic downturns through supply-side restrictions does not fundamentally resolve issues, as it may further diminish demand [1] Group 3 - The speaker asserts that in sectors like photovoltaics and electric vehicles, larger scales lead to lower costs, with technological advancements closely linked to scale expansion, contrasting sharply with fossil fuel industries that are resource-constrained and monopolistic [2] - From a global perspective, China's rapid development in green industries provides cost-advantage solutions for global green transitions, representing a significant contribution to the global economy [2] - The speaker argues that green manufacturing cannot form cartel-like monopolies similar to the oil industry, as it belongs to a fully competitive scale economy sector [2] Group 4 - On the macroeconomic policy front, the speaker stresses the need to understand the relationship between direct and indirect financing beyond just financing structure, highlighting the role of banks as important carriers of money supply [2] - The speaker believes that current economic challenges in China are not solely financial or industrial issues but are intertwined results of financial cycles, insufficient demand, and income distribution structures [2] - Improving the social security system and increasing disposable income for low-income groups is deemed essential for both safeguarding livelihoods and stabilizing consumption to mitigate financial cycle fluctuations [2]

AI竞争的尽头是电力和制造能力。 在全球资产表现方面，刘煜辉强调，2025年美元走弱约10%，但未出现系统性崩塌。与此对应，半导体 和科创相关产业指数普遍上涨：例如，韩国股市半导体类上涨约70%，中国"两创"指数上涨约50%。 "中国通过端到端的产业生态优势，实现大模型训练、硬件应用和数据回流闭环，形成完整的技术与商 业生态，这将决定下半场的国际竞争格局。"刘煜辉说。 1月10日，在"2026年中国首席经济学家论坛年会"上，中国首席经济学家论坛理事刘煜辉在发表主旨演 讲时指出，人工智能（AI）竞争的尽头是电力和制造能力，这一轮AI产业革命将由中国完成。 在演讲中，刘煜辉将AI产业革命分为"上半场"和"下半场"。上半场以算力和技术研发为核心，资本和人 才投入巨大，为未来发展奠定基础；下半场则关注如何将技术势能转化为商业落地，形成完整的产业生 态。 他认为，中国在制造能力、产业生态建设和AI落地方面具有明显优势，而美国更多停留在技术蓝图和 设计层面，难以形成完整产业闭环。 刘煜辉最后提到，尽管短期市场仍存在波动和不确定性，但从长期趋势看，中国在AI及科创产业革命 的下半场中占据优势，"东风压倒西风"已成大势。 ...

Group 1 - Morgan Stanley and Citigroup are set to release their financial reports on January 15, 2026 [2] - The second China eVTOL Innovation Development Conference is scheduled for January 15, 2026 [2] - The fifth AIGC China Developer Conference will take place on January 18, 2026 [2] Group 2 - The U.S. Federal Reserve will publish its Beige Book on January 14, 2026, providing insights into economic conditions [2] - The OPEC monthly oil market report is expected to be released on January 14, 2026 [2] - The EIA will publish its monthly short-term energy outlook on January 14, 2026 [2]