（原标题：渣打银行展望下半年全球市场：美元走弱或推动新兴市场资产配置） 在美国经济"软着陆"的基本情境下，渣打认为股票仍有进一步上行空间，因此对股市的看好程度略超固 定收益。在固定收益方面，美元走弱预期有助于增加对新兴市场本币债的配置。渣打还预计，美国机构 按揭抵押证券的表现将持续优于发达市场投资级政府债。 针对中国市场，得益于财政政策支持及美元可能走弱，渣打看好科技、通信服务和非必需消费品行业， 并维持超配中国股票的建议。渣打中国财富管理部首席投资策略师王昕杰表示，相较于A股，港股（H 股）更具吸引力，主要受益于更低的估值、外资回流预期及与全球市场的更高联动性。 渣打对关键资产的观点具体如下： 债券：收益率存在"拉锯战"，对美联储减息的预期抵消了对美国预算赤字的担忧。渣打将全球债券作为 投资组合核心配置，超配新兴市场本币政府债。基于估值高企及美国经济增长不确定性导致收益率溢价 扩大风险，渣打低配发达市场投资级公司债。同时，看好新兴市场亚洲本币债、未对冲外汇风险的英国 国债和美国国库抗通胀债券。 股票：渣打维持超配全球股票的建议。贸易紧张局势缓和且盈利增长稳健，尽管关税带来影响，但通胀 仍受控。渣打将亚洲（除 ...

Company Overview - LXJ International Holdings Limited, known as "老乡鸡," is the largest Chinese QSR brand, founded in 2003 by a veteran and poultry farmer [1] - The company has transitioned from an A-share listing attempt to pursuing a listing on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, with the prospectus updated recently [1] Market Position - In 2024, the company holds a 0.9% market share in the Chinese QSR industry and ranks eighth in the overall fast food sector with a 0.5% market share [1] - The brand's menu focuses on home-style dishes centered around chicken, with signature items priced between 12-17 yuan [1] Supply Chain and Expansion - The company has established a comprehensive supply chain involving breeding, procurement, processing, and logistics, with three chicken farms and two automated central kitchens [2] - Plans for further supply chain integration include developing a new central kitchen in Hefei, expected to be completed by 2027 [2] - As of April 30, 2025, the company operates 1,564 stores across 58 cities, with a mix of 911 direct-operated and 653 franchised stores [2] Financial Performance - The company's revenue for 2022, 2023, and 2024 is projected to be 4.528 billion yuan, 5.651 billion yuan, and 6.288 billion yuan, respectively, with net profits of 252 million yuan, 375 million yuan, and 409 million yuan [3] - For the first four months of 2025, revenue reached 2.12 billion yuan, a 9.84% increase year-on-year, with net profit at 174 million yuan, up 7.41% from the previous year [3]

Core Insights - OpenAI is struggling to find a sustainable profit model despite its integration into Microsoft's Azure ecosystem and widespread use of its technology by various enterprises [2] - The company's attempts to establish direct partnerships with advertising agencies have been hindered by existing agreements with Microsoft, which allow agencies to access OpenAI's tools without direct contracts [3][4] - OpenAI's shift towards enterprise services and subscription models has led to significant revenue growth, but the company is still facing substantial losses [8] Group 1: Challenges with Advertising Agencies - OpenAI has been actively reaching out to advertising agencies for deeper collaboration, sometimes requesting prepayments of up to one million dollars, which has deterred many agencies from direct partnerships [3] - The existing relationship with Microsoft complicates OpenAI's efforts, as agencies can utilize OpenAI's models through Microsoft without needing to engage directly with OpenAI [4] - Some independent agencies, like LERMA, are willing to sign direct agreements with OpenAI, indicating a potential avenue for collaboration with smaller firms [3] Group 2: Impact of AI on Advertising - The rise of AI tools like ChatGPT is changing how brands appear in consumer search paths, making it crucial for brands to maintain visibility within large language models (LLMs) [6] - A significant portion of U.S. consumers, 35.8%, frequently use ChatGPT, and 58% have replaced traditional search engines with AI tools, highlighting a shift in consumer behavior [6] - Leading advertising agencies are forming dedicated AI search teams to adapt to these changes, indicating a major evolution in advertising strategies [7] Group 3: OpenAI's Revenue Growth and Losses - OpenAI has introduced various subscription models, including ChatGPT Enterprise, which has helped its commercial user base exceed 3 million and annual recurring revenue to double to 10 billion dollars [8] - Despite this growth, OpenAI reported a loss of nearly 5 billion dollars in 2024, indicating that even profitable subscription models are not enough to cover operational costs [8] - The company is restructuring its enterprise subscription model to a usage-based system, which may attract more budget-sensitive clients [8] Group 4: Strategic Transformation in Advertising - OpenAI's advancements are prompting the advertising industry to rethink its role, shifting from merely placing ads to influencing how algorithms perceive brands [9] - The transition to AI as a primary marketing channel means that OpenAI is redefining how brands are seen and understood in the digital landscape [9] - The advertising industry is at a crossroads, needing to adapt to the evolving dynamics of AI and its implications for brand visibility and consumer engagement [9]

Core Insights - The insurance trust business is rapidly emerging as a new growth point in China's wealth management market, driven by the deepening of the "three classifications" reform and expanding market demand [1][2] - As of the end of 2024, the scale of wealth management service trusts has exceeded 1 trillion yuan, with insurance trusts reaching 270.3 billion yuan, accounting for over 26% of the total [1] - The recent compilation meeting for the "Insurance Trust Business Guidelines" marks a new phase in the standardized development of insurance trust business [1][4] Group 1: Market Dynamics - Over 40 life insurance companies and more than 30 trust companies are actively participating in the insurance trust market, creating a multi-dimensional collaboration model of "insurance + trust + banking" [2] - The insurance trust business is expected to experience explosive growth due to industry needs and the continuous improvement of related systems [2][3] Group 2: Product Features - Insurance trusts combine the risk isolation and wealth transfer functions of trusts with the leverage and risk management advantages of insurance, creating a synergistic effect [3] - The establishment threshold for insurance trusts typically ranges from 1 million to 3 million yuan, making it accessible for middle-class and affluent families [3] Group 3: Future Outlook - The implementation of the newly compiled "Insurance Trust Business Guidelines" and ongoing efforts in product design, customer service, and technological empowerment are expected to position insurance trusts as a core pillar in the wealth management sector [4]

Group 1 - Taiwan's leader Lai Ching-te's "Ten Talks on Independence" was abruptly halted, originally scheduled for July 5, due to a claimed response to a typhoon [1][2] - Speculation arose regarding the cancellation, with some suggesting it was influenced by the American Institute in Taiwan (AIT) after reviewing Lai's speech, fearing it could disrupt US-China negotiations [3] - Internal party advice also played a role, as previous speeches had been criticized and could negatively impact upcoming elections, with polls indicating only 3 to 4 out of 24 targeted opposition members might be removed [3][4] Group 2 - Following the speech cancellation, Taiwan's military began its annual "Han Kuang" exercise, which is set to last for 10 days, involving extensive real-time drills [5] - The military's exercises are designed to engage public interest, with this year's highlight being a live demonstration of the M1A2T main battle tank, purchased from the US [8][7] - The M1A2T tanks, costing approximately $1.7 million each, total around $1.87 billion for 108 units, have been criticized for being unsuitable for Taiwan's terrain and infrastructure [10]

（原标题：大卫和歌利亚） 展期：6月21日 - 7月20日 地点：Tong Gallery+Projects 无锡市中山路348号大东方百货A座8F 在遥远的希伯来文明叙事里，《撒母耳记上》第 17 章记载着震撼人心的一幕：年轻牧羊人大卫赤足立 于沙场，青铜铸就的巨人歌利亚身披重甲、手持长矛，阴影笼罩着整个山谷。此刻大卫手中那具用兽皮 与藤条编织的投石器，看似脆弱不堪，却承载着人类面对绝对力量时，从原始本能中迸发的勇气与智慧 —— 它打破了以力取胜的常规逻辑，用巧劲与谋略挑战不可一世的权威，成为文明记忆中最具象征意 义的抗争符号。 跨越三千年时光长河，这个古老传说的精神内核仍在当代社会持续回响。现代都市的钢铁森林里，每个 人都在与属于自己的 "歌利亚" 对峙：或许是职场中难以突破的玻璃天花板，或许是生活里无法挣脱的 经济困境，又或许是内心深处如影随形的焦虑与自我怀疑。这些无形的巨人以不同姿态压迫着个体，而 人类在对抗过程中展现出的坚韧与突破，恰如大卫甩出石子的瞬间，将渺小个体的光芒投射在命运的幕 布之上，赋予存在以超越性的意义。 在这场永不停歇的生存史诗中，艺术始终以独特的视角捕捉着人类抗争的每一个瞬间。绘画 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the discovery of a significant archaeological treasure in Nanjing, specifically a golden beast and various ancient coins, which has sparked interest and debate regarding its historical context and significance [1][2][4]. Discovery of the Treasure - The treasure was accidentally unearthed by villagers in Xuyi County, Jiangsu, during spring plowing in February 1982, leading to the discovery of a golden beast and a copper pot filled with gold coins [2][4]. - The initial discovery attracted a large crowd, prompting local authorities to intervene and secure the artifacts for preservation [4][6]. Details of the Artifacts - The golden beast, weighing 9,100 grams with a gold content of 99%, is noted for its unique design resembling a leopard, which may have been intended to symbolize protection [12][16]. - The copper pot contained 9 gold cakes weighing 2,864 grams, 15 pieces of horse-hoof gold weighing 4,845 grams, and 11 pieces of the Chu state currency "Ying Ruan" weighing 3,260 grams, totaling over 20 kilograms of gold [4][8]. Historical Context and Significance - The artifacts are believed to date back to the late Qin to early Han dynasty, with ongoing debates about their exact historical context, particularly regarding the political turmoil of the time [17][21]. - The "Ying Ruan" coins are recognized as some of the earliest standardized gold currency in China, adding to the historical value of the find [14][15]. Institutional Response - The Nanjing Museum quickly mobilized to secure the artifacts, leveraging government support to transport them safely to the museum, where they are now considered national treasures [8][21].

（原标题：应该为人民币稳定币立规则） 随着国际上一些经济体就稳定币展开立法进程，各界对稳定币的发展有了各种憧憬和讨论，同时也对人 民币稳定币如何发展进行探讨。本文认为，稳定币作为一种支付结算领域的辅助工具，在金融领域的应 用是有效的，同时，对货币发行、货币流通和货币政策有一定的正面和负面影响，需要加以规范和监 管。因此，应该尽快制定有关人民币稳定币的法规，确保相关业务的有序开展，防范可能的风险。 一、 关于稳定币相关观念的辨误 稳定币是在以比特币为代表的各类加密货币基础上出现的一种与真实资产锚定的支付工具，其中锚定法 定货币的稳定币与其他加密货币在金融功能上具有不同的性质和特点。但目前在叙述锚定法定货币的稳 定币中，往往与其他加密货币相混淆，同时，也如前些年互联网金融一样，以技术特性代替金融本质， 造成很多误解，干扰了稳定币的正常发展。 1、香港、美国等经济体为稳定币立法，不是稳定币的合法化，而是加强对稳定币的监管。 按普通法系的原则，法律没有明确禁止的行为，都不是非法行为。因此，可以说，在没有稳定币立法的 情况下，稳定币、稳定币支付结算是合法的。之所以立法，说明两个问题：一是稳定币支付在经济生活 中是有良好 ...

Core Viewpoint - The liquidity changes in Hong Kong dollars (HKD) are a response to market dynamics and have significant implications for the Hong Kong stock market, with the fundamental economic conditions being a more critical factor than liquidity itself [1][3]. Group 1: Liquidity Changes - On June 26, the Hong Kong Monetary Authority (HKMA) sold US dollars and bought HKD to withdraw 9.42 billion HKD from the market due to the HKD exchange rate hitting the weak end of the peg at 7.85 HKD per USD [1]. - On July 2, HKMA further withdrew 20.018 billion HKD from the market, indicating a proactive approach to managing liquidity [1]. - The HKD is pegged to the USD, and the HKMA's actions are part of a system that maintains the exchange rate within a specified range, responding to market demand for HKD [1][2]. Group 2: Market Dynamics - The recent liquidity withdrawal is a dynamic balance following excessive HKD liquidity injected in early May, which led to a significant increase in interbank liquidity from 44.6 billion HKD to 174.1 billion HKD [2]. - The overnight and one-month Hong Kong Interbank Offered Rate (Hibor) remained low at around 0.5% for two months, indicating a misjudgment in the demand for HKD by the banking system [2]. - The rapid expansion of the USD-HKD interest rate differential has led to increased carry trade activities, causing the HKD to touch the weak end of the peg within a month [2]. Group 3: Future Outlook - HKD liquidity is expected to remain relatively ample, with the primary influence on the Hong Kong stock market being the underlying economic fundamentals rather than liquidity levels [3]. - The current high interest rate differential of 3%-4% between USD and HKD is unlikely to persist, suggesting a gradual recovery of HKD liquidity and a rise in Hibor rates [3]. - The demand for HKD is expected to increase due to a weaker USD, inflows from the southbound trading, and a surge in Hong Kong IPOs, indicating a positive outlook for the HKD liquidity situation [3].

Core Viewpoint - Porsche's global deliveries in the first half of 2025 decreased by 6% year-on-year, primarily driven by a significant slowdown in the Chinese market, where sales fell by 28% [1][2]. Group 1: Sales Performance - Porsche's global delivery volume reached 146,391 units in the first half of 2025, marking a 6% decline compared to the previous year [1]. - The Chinese market, which had previously supported Porsche's growth, saw a dramatic 28% drop in sales, significantly impacting overall performance [2]. - In contrast, North America experienced a 10% increase in sales, becoming a key growth area for the company [3]. Group 2: Market Dynamics - The Chinese market is undergoing a transformation from high-end consumption to a reassessment of product value, leading to increased competition from local electric vehicle brands [2]. - Economic uncertainties have caused some loyal Porsche customers to delay purchasing decisions or shift towards more feature-rich domestic brands within the same budget [2]. Group 3: Product Strategy - Porsche's electric vehicle, the Taycan, has not met sales expectations in China, prompting significant price reductions of nearly 20% for some versions to stimulate demand [3]. - Despite challenges, Porsche's management remains optimistic about the Taycan, emphasizing its technological capabilities and driving performance [3]. - The company is accelerating its electrification strategy, with electric and plug-in hybrid models accounting for 36% of global deliveries in the first half of 2025, a 14.5% increase year-on-year [4]. Group 4: Competitive Landscape - Porsche faces significant competition in the Chinese market from leading electric vehicle manufacturers like BYD, Geely, and others, particularly in terms of smart features and user engagement [4]. - The traditional brand's high-end status is no longer a decisive factor in sales, as the market increasingly values technological capabilities and overall system performance [4].