Core Insights - ADP has launched a new data release mechanism to provide preliminary estimates of private sector employment on a weekly basis, starting from October 29, 2025 [1] - The initial data indicates an average of 14,250 new jobs added weekly in the private sector, based on a four-week moving average from over 26 million anonymous payroll records [1] - This weekly data will serve as a leading indicator for ADP's traditional monthly employment report, which will continue to be released on the first Wednesday of each month [1] Group 1 - The introduction of weekly employment data aims to provide a more timely reference for labor market dynamics [1] - The next monthly employment report is scheduled for November 5, 2025, and will include detailed employment metrics across industry distribution, company size, and geographic dimensions [1] - ADP's Chief Economist highlighted the importance of near real-time data in providing a clearer view of the labor market during critical economic periods [1] Group 2 - Subsequent weekly preliminary estimates will be updated on November 11, 18, and 25, 2025 [1] - The weekly data is designed to enhance market sensitivity to changes in employment trends, especially in a context where economic policy heavily relies on data [1]

Group 1: U.S. Government and Economic Policies - The U.S. Senate failed for the 13th time to pass a funding bill aimed at ending the government shutdown, with a vote of 54 to 45, failing to meet the required threshold [1] - Senate Minority Leader Schumer indicated that the government shutdown could last until November, affecting healthcare subsidies for millions, federal employee salaries, and food assistance programs [1] - The Senate passed a resolution by a vote of 52 to 48 to terminate Trump's 50% tariff on Brazilian imports, which was enacted under a national emergency declaration [1] Group 2: Employment and Labor Market - ADP announced the launch of a new data release mechanism, providing preliminary estimates of private sector employment on a weekly basis, marking the first time ADP offers weekly employment indicators [2] Group 3: International Economic Developments - The U.S. plans to sign an agreement with South Korea to enhance bilateral cooperation in advanced technologies such as artificial intelligence, quantum computing, and 6G [3] - The Bank of Korea plans to increase its gold reserves for the first time since 2013, monitoring market conditions to determine the timing and scale of purchases [3] - The Philippine central bank allowed the peso to float freely against the dollar, resulting in the peso hitting a historic low of 59 pesos per dollar, influenced by strong remittance income and economic growth [3] Group 4: Consumer Confidence and Economic Indicators - The U.S. consumer confidence index fell to 94.6 in October, marking the third consecutive month of decline, with the expectations index dropping to 71.5, the lowest since June [4] - South Korea's GDP grew by 1.2% quarter-on-quarter in Q3, slightly above the Bank of Korea's expectation of 1.1% [5] Group 5: Global Market Dynamics - The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose by 0.34% to 47,706.37 points, the S&P 500 increased by 0.23% to 6,890.89 points, and the Nasdaq Composite climbed by 0.8% to 23,827.49 points, all reaching record highs [7] - COMEX gold futures fell by 1.28% to $3,968.10 per ounce, while silver futures rose by 0.78% to $47.14 per ounce [8] - U.S. oil futures declined by 1.84% to $60.18 per barrel, and Brent crude futures dropped by 1.62% to $63.85 per barrel [8]

Core Insights - The agricultural prices in China show mixed trends, with some products experiencing price increases while others see declines [1][2]. Price Trends - **Pork Products**: The average price of live pigs is 12.32 yuan/kg, up 0.2% week-on-week but down 32.2% year-on-year. The average price of pork is 23.11 yuan/kg, down 1.1% week-on-week and down 22.0% year-on-year. The average price of piglets is 25.13 yuan/kg, down 3.5% week-on-week and down 29.5% year-on-year [1]. - **Poultry Products**: The average price of eggs is 8.74 yuan/kg, down 1.4% week-on-week and down 23.1% year-on-year. The average price of chicken is 22.33 yuan/kg, down 0.6% week-on-week and down 5.7% year-on-year. The average price of broiler chicks is 3.60 yuan each, down 1.1% week-on-week and down 8.6% year-on-year [1]. - **Beef and Mutton Products**: The average price of beef is 71.27 yuan/kg, unchanged week-on-week and up 5.8% year-on-year. The average price of mutton is 70.61 yuan/kg, up 0.2% week-on-week and up 1.0% year-on-year [1]. Feed Prices - **Corn**: The average price of corn is 2.46 yuan/kg, unchanged week-on-week and up 2.9% year-on-year. In the main production area of Northeast China, the price is 2.25 yuan/kg, down 0.4% week-on-week [2]. - **Soybean Meal**: The average price of soybean meal is 3.26 yuan/kg, down 0.3% week-on-week and down 2.7% year-on-year [2]. - **Fattening Pig and Chicken Feed**: The average price of fattening pig feed is 3.36 yuan/kg, down 0.3% week-on-week and down 1.5% year-on-year. The average price of chicken feed is 3.49 yuan/kg, down 0.3% week-on-week and down 1.1% year-on-year [2].

Core Insights - The launch of the new model N8L by Tengshi brand is aimed at the large six-seat SUV market, with a price range of 299,800 to 329,800 yuan, and initial market reactions are positive [1][3] - The N8L has received more small orders than expected, particularly from family users, indicating strong demand for family-oriented features [1][2] - The N8L is positioned as a key product for Tengshi and BYD's overall high-end strategy, aiming to achieve scale in the high-end market [3][4] Product Features - The N8L includes 49 storage spaces, a third-row seat that can slide 10 cm, and a hidden storage space of 51 liters in the trunk, all designed to address family travel needs [1][2] - The vehicle features a collaboration with Midea's high-end appliance brand COLMO for smart home integration, allowing users to control home appliances via voice commands from the car [2] - Safety is emphasized as a core aspect of the N8L, with a body structure made of 2000MPa hot-formed steel and advanced safety technologies [2] Market Positioning - Tengshi has established itself as a high-end brand since the launch of the D9 model in 2022, with an average transaction price of around 350,000 yuan for new models in 2024 [4][5] - The brand aims to compete in the high-end SUV market, having faced challenges in achieving expected sales for previous models N7 and N8 [5][6] - The introduction of the N8L is seen as a strategic move to strengthen Tengshi's market position and support BYD's overall high-end strategy [6][7] Industry Trends - BYD's focus on high-end, global, and intelligent development is becoming evident, with a notable increase in the sales proportion of high-end brands [7][8] - The overall sales of BYD's high-end brand series reached 296,000 units in the first nine months of the year, accounting for 9% of total sales, reflecting a growth of approximately 3 percentage points year-on-year [8] - The competitive landscape is shifting as more domestic brands, including Leap Motor, are entering the high-end market, indicating a broader trend among manufacturers to enhance their high-end offerings [8][9]

Core Viewpoint - The document outlines the drafting process and key considerations for the "15th Five-Year Plan" (2026-2030), emphasizing its significance in achieving socialist modernization and addressing both opportunities and challenges in China's economic and social development [3][4][7]. Group 1: Drafting Process - The drafting of the "15th Five-Year Plan" was initiated in February 2023, following the decision by the Central Political Bureau to review the plan at the 20th Party Congress [3]. - A comprehensive approach was taken, including extensive research, soliciting opinions from various sectors, and conducting field studies across 12 provinces [4][5]. - The drafting process involved multiple meetings of the Central Political Bureau to review and refine the proposal, resulting in significant revisions based on feedback received [5][6]. Group 2: Key Considerations and Content - The overall consideration for the draft is to align with the strategic goals set by the 20th Party Congress, focusing on the critical role of the "15th Five-Year Plan" in the broader context of socialist modernization [7][8]. - The draft emphasizes a goal-oriented and problem-solving approach, aiming to solidify the foundation for modernization while addressing emerging global challenges [8]. - The document is structured into three main sections: an overview of achievements and guiding principles, detailed strategic tasks across various sectors, and concluding remarks on governance and social mobilization [9]. Group 3: Major Proposals and Goals - The "15th Five-Year Plan" is positioned as a pivotal period for consolidating the foundations laid during the "14th Five-Year Plan," with a focus on achieving significant progress by 2035 [10]. - Key economic and social development goals include maintaining reasonable economic growth, improving productivity, and enhancing residents' income in line with economic growth [11]. - The plan prioritizes high-quality development, emphasizing technological self-reliance and innovation as central themes for economic advancement [12][13]. Group 4: Domestic and International Circulation - The draft highlights the importance of strengthening domestic economic circulation while also expanding international trade and cooperation [14]. - It stresses the need for a robust domestic market and effective investment strategies to stimulate consumption and economic growth [14]. Group 5: Common Prosperity and Social Welfare - The document underscores the commitment to common prosperity, focusing on improving living standards, education, and social security systems [15]. - It aims to reduce regional disparities and enhance rural development as part of a broader strategy for equitable growth [15]. Group 6: Security and Governance - The draft addresses the need for a comprehensive approach to security, linking it to development goals and emphasizing the modernization of national security systems [16]. - It reinforces the importance of the Party's leadership in guiding economic and social development, ensuring effective governance and accountability [16].

风险因素在于，印尼电解铝项目建设投产超出预期的风险，印尼氧化铝项目建设投产超出预期的风险， 国内企业氧化铝利润水平下降的风险，全球贸易争端加剧的风险，海外其他区域电解铝产能投产超预期 的风险，电解铝下游需求增长不及预期的风险，全球能源成本上升的风险，矿端原料供给扰动的风险。 中信证券最新研报指出，得益于其丰厚的铝煤资源，印尼已经成为全球铝业发展的热土。当地铝土矿成 本具备突出优势，但是能源价格并无显著优势。根据测算，印尼电解铝投资回报处于有限水平，但是氧 化铝回报优势不容小觑，预测2025-2030年印尼氧化铝、电解铝产能年均增量将分别达320万吨、56万 吨。虽然印尼项目投产不改电解铝供产量增速下移趋势，但将改变全球氧化铝成本曲线，看好电解铝行 业投资机会。 （文章来源：新华财经） 中信证券具体表示，氧化铝方面，预计随着Inalum、南山铝业、锦江集团、齐力铝业、哈利塔集团等项 目陆续建设投产，印尼氧化铝产能将由400万吨／年增至2520万吨／年，对应CAGR 35.9%，年均增幅 320万吨／年。电解铝方面，预计随着Inalum Kuala Tanjung升级、Mempawah项目、华青铝业、南山铝 业、 ...

截至10月28日，全球最大的黄金ETF——SPDR Gold Trust的黄金持仓量为1038.92吨，较前一个交易日 维持不变。 （文章来源：新华财经） ...

（文章来源：新华财经） 截至10月28日，全球最大白银ETF--iShares Silver Trust持仓较上日减少131.22吨，当前持仓量为15209.57 吨。 ...

Core Viewpoint - Russian oil company Lukoil plans to sell its overseas assets due to sanctions imposed by certain countries [1] Group 1: Company Actions - Lukoil has begun reviewing applications from potential buyers for its international assets [1] - The company intends to apply for an extension of the license issued by the U.S. Treasury Department if necessary, to ensure that international asset operations are not affected [1] Group 2: Regulatory Environment - The U.S. Treasury Department announced sanctions against Lukoil on October 22, affecting all entities and subsidiaries in which Lukoil holds 50% or more ownership [1] - All transactions with these subsidiaries must be completed by November 21 [1] Group 3: Operational Impact - The asset sale will be conducted under the gradual shutdown license issued by the U.S. Treasury's Office of Foreign Assets Control [1]

Core Viewpoint - Barclays economists predict that the Federal Reserve will announce a 25 basis point rate cut in the upcoming monetary policy meeting, aligning with market expectations. However, this decision may reveal increasing policy divergence within the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) compared to the consensus seen in the September meeting [1]. Group 1 - In the September meeting, only one member, Fed Governor Milan, voted against the consensus, advocating for a more aggressive rate cut [1]. - The October meeting may witness "dual dissent," with Milan potentially opposing the 25 basis point cut again, while some regional Fed presidents may advocate for maintaining the current rates, indicating hawkish dissent [1]. - Barclays anticipates that hawkish members may support the rate cut, but would not be surprised if Kansas City Fed President Schmid or Richmond Fed President Musalem votes against the cut, favoring a hold on rates [1].