全年经济总量迈上140万亿元新台阶、制造业增加值连续16年位居全球第一、年末常住人口城镇化率比 上年提高0.89个百分点……2025年，我国交出一份高质量的发展答卷。 新的一年，如何落实中央经济工作会议精神，推动"十五五"实现良好开局？国务院新闻办公室20日举行 新闻发布会，国家发展改革委相关负责人回答记者提问。 充分挖掘中国经济潜能 "经济社会发展主要目标顺利完成，经济运行稳中有进，发展韧性进一步彰显，民生政策更有温度，交 出了一份高质量答卷。"在总结过去一年经济发展成果时，国家发展改革委副主任王昌林这样概括。 "展望2026年，我们认为消费与投资、科技与产业、城乡与区域都将释放出巨大的发展潜能。"国家发展 改革委国民经济综合司司长周陈说。 从点上看，新技术新产品新场景蔚然成势。周陈表示，我国新能源、新材料、航空航天等新的经济增长 点正在蓄势待发。"目前我们正在谋划推进一批'十五五'时期的高技术产业标志性引领性重大工程。"周 陈说。 从线上看，创新链产业链人才链加速融合。周陈介绍，我国有完整的产业体系和超大规模市场，也有全 球规模最宏大、门类最齐全的人才资源，具备了将创新成果从"书架"推上"货架"的全链条全 ...

Core Viewpoint - The market's concerns over Japan's significant increase in government spending and the resurgence of inflation are leading to a breakdown in the traditional correlation between the yen and the dollar, prompting HSBC strategists to revise their forecasts for the yen's trajectory in the coming months [1] Group 1: Economic Factors - Two catalysts for the "sudden revaluation" of the yen are identified: the substantial rise in Japanese inflation that began in 2022 and the ascension of Prime Minister Kishi Matsumoto in October [1] - HSBC now predicts that the yen will fall to 160 yen per dollar by mid-year, contrary to previous expectations of strengthening to 150 yen [1] Group 2: Market Dynamics - The complexity of the situation is highlighted by the potential for Japanese authorities to intervene in the foreign exchange market if the yen falls below 160 [1] - Several potential factors that could halt the yen's recent decline are noted, with the most feasible being an economic slowdown in the United States, which is beyond the control of Japanese policymakers [1]

从短期走势看，经季节性调整后，2025年11月南非矿业产量环比下降5.9%。不过，从阶段性表现来 看，截至11月的三个月矿业产量较此前三个月仍增长1.6%，显示行业整体仍具一定韧性。 分析人士指出，美国关税政策引发的通胀压力、国际大宗商品市场波动以及南非国内物流和基础设施瓶 颈，仍是影响该国矿业稳定增长的主要因素。 （文章来源：新华财经） 新华财经约翰内斯堡1月21日电（记者靳博文） 南非统计局20日数据显示，2025年11月该国矿业产量同 比下降2.7%，为该国矿业自2025年4月以来首次出现同比下滑，最新数据亦明显低于市场此前普遍预期 的3.9%增幅。 数据显示，矿业整体走弱主要受多项核心矿产品产量下降拖累。其中，煤炭产量同比下降7.9%，铁矿 石下降7.6%，铂族金属下降2.8%，黄金下降6.0%。但与此同时，锰矿产量同比增长17%，表现相对强 劲，在一定程度上对整体矿业产量形成对冲支撑。 除产量波动外，持续攀升的运营成本亦对南非矿业形成长期制约。南非矿业理事会日前发布数据显示， 2025年11月该国电力成本同比飙升近16%，水成本同比上涨11.6%，劳动力成本亦同比上升约6%。高企 的生产成本已导致近 ...

作者：袁闯，财信证券首席经济学家 1月19日，国家统计局发布数据显示，初步核算，2025年国内生产总值1401879亿元，按不变价格计算， 比上年增长5.0%。从环比增速来看，一季度GDP环比增长1.2%，二季度增长1.0%，三季度增长1.1%， 四季度增长1.2%。整体来看，全年经济运行节奏大体平稳，经济社会发展主要目标任务圆满实现，"十 四五"胜利收官，结构上继续向新向优。 内需方面，经济自发复苏动能仍待巩固。拆分投资因素来看，鉴于"反内卷"政策可能拖累部分制造业投 资、房价偏弱仍将制约房地产投资、财政政策继续支撑基建投资，预计2026年固定资产投资增速可能有 限回升。拆分消费因素来看，2026年预计"股市财富效应"对消费仍将发挥一定贡献，"收入效应"对消费 仍有一定制约作用，但伴随着切实改善民生、提升民众福祉，使消费行为从政策驱动转为自觉、可持续 的内生性增长，2026年消费将延续温和复苏态势。 外需方面，虽然2025年"抢出口"行为可能对2026年实际出口有一定"透支效应"，但在光伏等产品出口退 税政策调整、中美关税摩擦"烈度"降级、全球经济仍有韧性、中国出口企业竞争力提升等共同支撑下， 预计2026 ...

新华财经上海1月20日电（记者杨溢仁）高成长产业债自推出以来，正稳步发展为交易所债券市场服务 实体经济的有力融资渠道之一。 截至2025年12月31日，市场累计迎来70家发行人，成功发行112单债券，募集资金规模达683.48亿元， 广泛覆盖化工、机械、电气设备、消费、建筑、交通运输等国民经济关键领域。 记者调研发现，高成长产业债发行人普遍在募集说明书中设置了强化信息披露的相关条款。一家发行人 在接受采访时表示："合规是第一位的，底线是没有财务造假。作为公开市场债券发行人，信息披露既 是公司的义务，也是向投资者展示公司信用的重要途径。增加自愿披露内容体现了公司积极做好信息披 露的态度。" 从满足合规要求至主动传递信用信息，高成长产业债发行人正逐步践行"信用即价值"，即回归信用本 源。 "发行人通过及时披露重大事项，针对性地分析相关事项对偿债能力的影响，有助于提高信息披露的有 效性，从而使债券成交定价更加准确、交易更加活跃，吸引更多投资者参与债券市场。"上交所债券业 务中心的相关负责人表示。 记者从多家高成长产业债发行人处了解到，信息披露带来的积极效应不仅体现在资本市场的流动性改善 方面，也有助于企业在公开市场 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese government is implementing a comprehensive fiscal and financial policy package to stimulate domestic demand, with a focus on supporting small and micro enterprises, promoting consumer spending, and enhancing private investment [1][2]. Group 1: Policy Overview - The fiscal and financial policy package includes six key measures aimed at expanding domestic demand, with four focused on stimulating private investment and two on promoting consumer spending [2]. - The policies are designed to simplify processes, allowing for direct benefits without application requirements, thereby enhancing efficiency and effectiveness [2]. Group 2: Specific Policies - **Small and Micro Enterprises Loan Interest Subsidy Policy**: This policy provides interest subsidies of 1.5 percentage points on loans for key industries such as new energy vehicles and medical equipment, with a maximum loan amount of 50 million yuan and a subsidy period of up to 2 years [3]. - **Private Investment Special Guarantee Plan**: This plan offers loan guarantees for small and micro private enterprises, allowing for loans up to 20 million yuan for activities like facility upgrades and expansions [3]. - **Support for Private Enterprise Bond Risk Sharing Mechanism**: Central government funds will be allocated to share risks associated with bond issuance by private enterprises, helping to lower financing thresholds [3]. Group 3: Additional Policies - **Equipment Upgrade Loan Interest Subsidy Policy**: This policy expands the scope of interest subsidies to include loans for equipment upgrades and technology innovation, with a subsidy of 1.5 percentage points for up to 2 years [4]. - **Service Industry Operating Entity Loan Interest Subsidy Policy**: The loan limit for this policy has been increased from 1 million yuan to 10 million yuan, with a 1 percentage point subsidy for one year, covering 11 consumer sectors [4]. - **Personal Consumption Loan Interest Subsidy Policy**: Residents can receive a 1 percentage point subsidy on personal consumption loans, including credit card installment payments, with over 500 financial institutions eligible to provide these loans [4]. Group 4: Financial Arrangements - Sufficient budgetary provisions have been made for the fiscal expenditures required by these policies in 2026, encouraging local entities to actively engage in business [5].

三是重点支出保障有力。2025年，财政部门持续优化支出结构，社会保障和就业、科技、教育、卫生健 康等重点领域支出得到了较好的保障。前11个月，上述四项支出合计超过10万亿元，占一般公共预算支 出的四成多。 一是财政收入"前低中高后稳"。分季度看，全国一般公共预算收入一季度下降1.1%；二季度由降转升， 增长0.6%；三季度增幅明显提高，增长2.5%。进入四季度，10月份增长3.2%，11月份与2024年同期基 本持平。其中，税收收入自4月份以来持续保持同比增长，成为拉动财政收入增长的主要引擎，这也反 映出我国经济运行延续了稳中有进的发展态势。 二是收支平衡目标可以实现。收入方面，全国一般公共预算收入保持恢复性增长态势，总体平稳。支出 方面，全国一般公共预算支出靠前发力、保持强度，为经济社会发展提供了必要的财力支撑。预计全年 可以实现收支平衡。 新华财经北京1月20日电（记者董道勇）20日，财政部综合司司长李先忠在国新办新闻发布会上表示， 2025年度的财政收支数据还在汇总当中，预计1月底或2月初正式对社会发布。就目前初步掌握的情况 看，2025年财政收支运行可以概括为以下三点。 （文章来源：新华财经） "同时 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese agricultural insurance sector is heavily supported by government subsidies, with nearly 80% of premiums coming from fiscal support, and is projected to exceed 155 billion yuan in premiums by 2025, providing risk coverage of over 5.2 trillion yuan for 125 million farming households [1][2]. Group 1: Agricultural Insurance Development - Since 2007, the central government has supported agricultural insurance through premium subsidies, marking one of the earliest fiscal-financial collaborative policies in China [1]. - China's agricultural insurance premium scale ranks first globally, playing a crucial role in stabilizing farmers' income and ensuring national food security, supporting a grain production level of over 1.4 trillion jin [1]. Group 2: Insurance Coverage and Benefits - The agricultural insurance system has been continuously improved, with various departments collaborating to establish a comprehensive framework tailored to China's conditions [1]. - The insurance coverage for major agricultural products like grains, oils, and sugars is designed to fully cover costs or planting income, while local specialty products benefit from national subsidy policies [2]. - Farmers have received over 520 billion yuan in compensation during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, aiding recovery from natural disasters [2]. Group 3: Future Initiatives - The Ministry of Finance plans to enhance the quality and efficiency of agricultural insurance and will issue guiding documents in 2026 to promote high-quality development in this sector [2].

Group 1 - Shanghai Jiading is establishing a high-end medical device industry cluster, promoting a dual empowerment of medical services and industrial development [1] - The "Shanghai Medical Valley" industrial park has attracted over 60 biopharmaceutical companies, with a projected total output value of 700 million yuan in 2024 [1] - A new model of industry-medical integration has been created, involving collaboration with Shanghai Jiao Tong University to support the transformation of medical and engineering innovations [1] Group 2 - The first domestically produced proton therapy system has been put into clinical use, treating over 1,000 patients with a maximum treatment cost of 170,000 yuan, which is 15% to 20% lower than imported equipment [2] - The "Union Medical-Jiading Regional Imaging Center" has been established to enhance grassroots medical imaging capabilities, addressing shortages in diagnostic physicians and improving service quality [2] - A digital twin management platform for high-value medical imaging equipment has been created, optimizing workflows and improving patient experience through real-time data monitoring [2] Group 3 - The "Jiading Model" is a practical implementation of the national hierarchical diagnosis and treatment system, promoting high-quality development of public hospitals and the entire chain of high-end medical equipment [3] - This model has been successfully implemented in nearly 400 projects across 31 provinces and cities, covering over 3,000 hospitals and serving nearly 200 million people [3] - The model is being promoted to countries and regions involved in the Belt and Road Initiative, including Indonesia, Brazil, and Africa [3]

（文章来源：新华财经） 世界黄金协会（WGC)公布的数据显示，截至1月16日当周，全球实物黄金ETF净流入53.409亿美元，需 求增加35.8吨或0.9%，持仓量达到4,064.7吨。 ...