作者：袁闯，财信证券首席经济学家 1月19日，国家统计局发布数据显示，初步核算，2025年国内生产总值1401879亿元，按不变价格计算， 比上年增长5.0%。从环比增速来看，一季度GDP环比增长1.2%，二季度增长1.0%，三季度增长1.1%， 四季度增长1.2%。整体来看，全年经济运行节奏大体平稳，经济社会发展主要目标任务圆满实现，"十 四五"胜利收官，结构上继续向新向优。 内需方面，经济自发复苏动能仍待巩固。拆分投资因素来看，鉴于"反内卷"政策可能拖累部分制造业投 资、房价偏弱仍将制约房地产投资、财政政策继续支撑基建投资，预计2026年固定资产投资增速可能有 限回升。拆分消费因素来看，2026年预计"股市财富效应"对消费仍将发挥一定贡献，"收入效应"对消费 仍有一定制约作用，但伴随着切实改善民生、提升民众福祉，使消费行为从政策驱动转为自觉、可持续 的内生性增长，2026年消费将延续温和复苏态势。 外需方面，虽然2025年"抢出口"行为可能对2026年实际出口有一定"透支效应"，但在光伏等产品出口退 税政策调整、中美关税摩擦"烈度"降级、全球经济仍有韧性、中国出口企业竞争力提升等共同支撑下， 预计2026 ...

新华财经上海1月20日电（记者杨溢仁）高成长产业债自推出以来，正稳步发展为交易所债券市场服务 实体经济的有力融资渠道之一。 截至2025年12月31日，市场累计迎来70家发行人，成功发行112单债券，募集资金规模达683.48亿元， 广泛覆盖化工、机械、电气设备、消费、建筑、交通运输等国民经济关键领域。 记者调研发现，高成长产业债发行人普遍在募集说明书中设置了强化信息披露的相关条款。一家发行人 在接受采访时表示："合规是第一位的，底线是没有财务造假。作为公开市场债券发行人，信息披露既 是公司的义务，也是向投资者展示公司信用的重要途径。增加自愿披露内容体现了公司积极做好信息披 露的态度。" 从满足合规要求至主动传递信用信息，高成长产业债发行人正逐步践行"信用即价值"，即回归信用本 源。 "发行人通过及时披露重大事项，针对性地分析相关事项对偿债能力的影响，有助于提高信息披露的有 效性，从而使债券成交定价更加准确、交易更加活跃，吸引更多投资者参与债券市场。"上交所债券业 务中心的相关负责人表示。 记者从多家高成长产业债发行人处了解到，信息披露带来的积极效应不仅体现在资本市场的流动性改善 方面，也有助于企业在公开市场 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese government is implementing a comprehensive fiscal and financial policy package to stimulate domestic demand, with a focus on supporting small and micro enterprises, promoting consumer spending, and enhancing private investment [1][2]. Group 1: Policy Overview - The fiscal and financial policy package includes six key measures aimed at expanding domestic demand, with four focused on stimulating private investment and two on promoting consumer spending [2]. - The policies are designed to simplify processes, allowing for direct benefits without application requirements, thereby enhancing efficiency and effectiveness [2]. Group 2: Specific Policies - **Small and Micro Enterprises Loan Interest Subsidy Policy**: This policy provides interest subsidies of 1.5 percentage points on loans for key industries such as new energy vehicles and medical equipment, with a maximum loan amount of 50 million yuan and a subsidy period of up to 2 years [3]. - **Private Investment Special Guarantee Plan**: This plan offers loan guarantees for small and micro private enterprises, allowing for loans up to 20 million yuan for activities like facility upgrades and expansions [3]. - **Support for Private Enterprise Bond Risk Sharing Mechanism**: Central government funds will be allocated to share risks associated with bond issuance by private enterprises, helping to lower financing thresholds [3]. Group 3: Additional Policies - **Equipment Upgrade Loan Interest Subsidy Policy**: This policy expands the scope of interest subsidies to include loans for equipment upgrades and technology innovation, with a subsidy of 1.5 percentage points for up to 2 years [4]. - **Service Industry Operating Entity Loan Interest Subsidy Policy**: The loan limit for this policy has been increased from 1 million yuan to 10 million yuan, with a 1 percentage point subsidy for one year, covering 11 consumer sectors [4]. - **Personal Consumption Loan Interest Subsidy Policy**: Residents can receive a 1 percentage point subsidy on personal consumption loans, including credit card installment payments, with over 500 financial institutions eligible to provide these loans [4]. Group 4: Financial Arrangements - Sufficient budgetary provisions have been made for the fiscal expenditures required by these policies in 2026, encouraging local entities to actively engage in business [5].

三是重点支出保障有力。2025年，财政部门持续优化支出结构，社会保障和就业、科技、教育、卫生健 康等重点领域支出得到了较好的保障。前11个月，上述四项支出合计超过10万亿元，占一般公共预算支 出的四成多。 一是财政收入"前低中高后稳"。分季度看，全国一般公共预算收入一季度下降1.1%；二季度由降转升， 增长0.6%；三季度增幅明显提高，增长2.5%。进入四季度，10月份增长3.2%，11月份与2024年同期基 本持平。其中，税收收入自4月份以来持续保持同比增长，成为拉动财政收入增长的主要引擎，这也反 映出我国经济运行延续了稳中有进的发展态势。 二是收支平衡目标可以实现。收入方面，全国一般公共预算收入保持恢复性增长态势，总体平稳。支出 方面，全国一般公共预算支出靠前发力、保持强度，为经济社会发展提供了必要的财力支撑。预计全年 可以实现收支平衡。 新华财经北京1月20日电（记者董道勇）20日，财政部综合司司长李先忠在国新办新闻发布会上表示， 2025年度的财政收支数据还在汇总当中，预计1月底或2月初正式对社会发布。就目前初步掌握的情况 看，2025年财政收支运行可以概括为以下三点。 （文章来源：新华财经） "同时 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese agricultural insurance sector is heavily supported by government subsidies, with nearly 80% of premiums coming from fiscal support, and is projected to exceed 155 billion yuan in premiums by 2025, providing risk coverage of over 5.2 trillion yuan for 125 million farming households [1][2]. Group 1: Agricultural Insurance Development - Since 2007, the central government has supported agricultural insurance through premium subsidies, marking one of the earliest fiscal-financial collaborative policies in China [1]. - China's agricultural insurance premium scale ranks first globally, playing a crucial role in stabilizing farmers' income and ensuring national food security, supporting a grain production level of over 1.4 trillion jin [1]. Group 2: Insurance Coverage and Benefits - The agricultural insurance system has been continuously improved, with various departments collaborating to establish a comprehensive framework tailored to China's conditions [1]. - The insurance coverage for major agricultural products like grains, oils, and sugars is designed to fully cover costs or planting income, while local specialty products benefit from national subsidy policies [2]. - Farmers have received over 520 billion yuan in compensation during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, aiding recovery from natural disasters [2]. Group 3: Future Initiatives - The Ministry of Finance plans to enhance the quality and efficiency of agricultural insurance and will issue guiding documents in 2026 to promote high-quality development in this sector [2].

Group 1 - Shanghai Jiading is establishing a high-end medical device industry cluster, promoting a dual empowerment of medical services and industrial development [1] - The "Shanghai Medical Valley" industrial park has attracted over 60 biopharmaceutical companies, with a projected total output value of 700 million yuan in 2024 [1] - A new model of industry-medical integration has been created, involving collaboration with Shanghai Jiao Tong University to support the transformation of medical and engineering innovations [1] Group 2 - The first domestically produced proton therapy system has been put into clinical use, treating over 1,000 patients with a maximum treatment cost of 170,000 yuan, which is 15% to 20% lower than imported equipment [2] - The "Union Medical-Jiading Regional Imaging Center" has been established to enhance grassroots medical imaging capabilities, addressing shortages in diagnostic physicians and improving service quality [2] - A digital twin management platform for high-value medical imaging equipment has been created, optimizing workflows and improving patient experience through real-time data monitoring [2] Group 3 - The "Jiading Model" is a practical implementation of the national hierarchical diagnosis and treatment system, promoting high-quality development of public hospitals and the entire chain of high-end medical equipment [3] - This model has been successfully implemented in nearly 400 projects across 31 provinces and cities, covering over 3,000 hospitals and serving nearly 200 million people [3] - The model is being promoted to countries and regions involved in the Belt and Road Initiative, including Indonesia, Brazil, and Africa [3]

（文章来源：新华财经） 世界黄金协会（WGC)公布的数据显示，截至1月16日当周，全球实物黄金ETF净流入53.409亿美元，需 求增加35.8吨或0.9%，持仓量达到4,064.7吨。 ...

在规模、效益、结构稳步前行的同时，宁波银行资产质量继续保持业内较好水平。据悉，2025年，宁波 银行坚持"经营银行就是经营风险"的风控理念，持续完善全面风险管理体系，严格执行统一授信政策， 坚持实施独立的授信审批，进一步强化行业和产业链研究，从源头端控制好客户准入，做好风险全流程 预警，有序做好不良贷款的清收处置，资产质量保持稳健。 新华财经上海1月20日电（记者王淑娟）宁波银行20日晚间发布的2025年度业绩快报显示，2025年宁波 银行实现营业收入719.68亿元，同比增长8.01%，实现归属于母公司股东的净利润293.33亿元，同比增 长8.13%，不良贷款率0.76%，资产质量继续保持业内较好水平。宁波银行2025年A股股价涨幅达 20.68%。 2025年，面对复杂多变的经营环境，宁波银行持续积累差异化的比较优势，经营效益实现稳步提升。 值得一提的是，2025年，宁波银行实现利息净收入531.61亿元，同比增长10.77%，取得较快增长；实现 手续费及佣金净收入60.85亿元，同比增长30.72%，轻资本业务增长势头良好。 2025年，宁波银行严格落实国家各项金融政策要求，聚焦实体经济重点领域和薄弱 ...

Group 1 - The People's Bank of China conducted a 7-day reverse repurchase operation of 324 billion yuan at an interest rate of 1.40%, maintaining the previous rate, resulting in a net withdrawal of 34.6 billion yuan due to 358.6 billion yuan of reverse repos maturing on the same day [1] - The Shanghai Interbank Offered Rate (Shibor) for short-term instruments saw a slight increase, with overnight Shibor rising by 5.60 basis points to 1.3740%, 7-day Shibor increasing by 1.60 basis points to 1.4830%, and 14-day Shibor up by 8.10 basis points to 1.5820% [1][2] Group 2 - In the interbank pledged repo market, both volume and price for short-term instruments increased, with R001 transaction volume exceeding 7.8 trillion yuan. The weighted average rates for DR001 and R001 rose by 5.3 basis points and 4.6 basis points, respectively, to 1.3712% and 1.4212%, with transaction volumes increasing by 33.3 billion yuan and 20.9 billion yuan [5] - The overall funding situation in the market remained balanced, with overnight rates for pledged deposits trading in the range of 1.48%-1.50% and 7-day funding rates around 1.50% [9] Group 3 - The secondary market for negotiable certificates of deposit (NCDs) was active, with short-term yields fluctuating slightly and medium to long-term yields declining marginally. The 1-month NCD yield closed at approximately 1.55%, unchanged from the previous day, while the 3-month and 6-month yields were also stable [10]

Core Viewpoint - The company has achieved a significant milestone in mineral resource reserves, with new findings in tungsten and other associated minerals, indicating a breakthrough in geological exploration [2][3]. Group 1: Mineral Resource Findings - The company’s subsidiary, Hunan Shizhu Garden Nonferrous Metals Co., Ltd., has reported an increase in mineral resources, including 91,700 tons of tungsten, 24,426,000 tons of associated fluorite, 63,300 tons of bismuth, 133,700 tons of tin, and 13,600 tons of molybdenum [2]. - After the recent assessment, the total reserves for tungsten stand at 678,700 tons, with associated fluorite at 6,676,900 tons, bismuth at 277,300 tons, tin at 238,300 tons, and molybdenum at 113,600 tons [2]. Group 2: Production Capacity and Strategic Implications - The company currently has a tungsten ore processing capacity of 2,354,000 tons per year and is implementing a technical transformation project aimed at increasing this capacity to 3,500,000 tons per year [3]. - The newly added reserves will extend the lifespan of the mining operations and support the sustainable development of strategic mineral resources, although the increase in reserves will not impact current production levels due to government restrictions on tungsten mining [3].