乌克兰总统泽连斯基告诉议员，尽管因日益扩大的腐败丑闻而面临要求其罢免叶尔马克的巨大压力，但 他仍将支持这位位高权重的幕僚长。 据不愿透露姓名的知情人士透露，继上周两名内阁成员辞职后，泽连斯基誓言要惩罚所有涉案官员，但 他同时也警告议员们，如果在战时向乌克兰领导层施加压力从而破坏稳定，他们将为此承担责任。 叶尔马克是泽连斯基的亲密盟友，在基辅拥有巨大的权力，他并未卷入此次腐败丑闻，但议员们认为他 应对7月份一项失败的计划负责，该计划旨在取消乌克兰反腐败机构的独立性，此举曾引发基辅盟友的 一致批评。 泽连斯基与议员们的这次交流发生在他最亲密的盟友之一蒂穆尔·明迪奇（Timur Mindich）被指控的一 周多之后。明迪奇被指控经营一个涉及多名部长的贪污网络，旨在从国营核能运营商乌克兰国家核能发 电公司（Energoatom）窃取资金。明迪奇已逃离该国。 泽连斯基正在应对来自美国的一份和平计划草案，该草案与俄罗斯为结束这场已进入第四个年头的冲突 所设定的条件相符。这份包含28点的和平蓝图将迫使该国割让大片被俄罗斯占领的领土，限制其军队规 模，并随着时间的推移解除对莫斯科的制裁。 据知情人士透露，在周四晚些时候与本党 ...

Group 1 - The strong U.S. employment report has reinforced expectations that the Federal Reserve will remain on hold during the December meeting, leading to a decline in gold prices [1][4] - Gold prices are currently consolidating, with a stronger dollar making gold more expensive for investors holding other currencies [3] - The U.S. labor report showed a non-farm payroll increase of 119,000 in September, significantly exceeding the forecast of 50,000 [4] Group 2 - Analysts suggest that the employment report is favorable for both hawkish and dovish factions, with many Fed officials leaning towards maintaining interest rates [5] - Swap traders see only a 40% chance of a rate cut next month, down from previous expectations of a 25 basis point cut [6] - Despite a pullback from historical highs, gold has risen over 50% year-to-date, supported by ETF inflows and central bank purchases [6] Group 3 - Geopolitical developments, particularly regarding Ukraine's peace plan, are also being monitored by traders [7]

AI播客：换个方式听新闻 下载mp3 音频由扣子空间生成 全球基金管理巨头先锋集团（Vanguard） 表示，随着人工智能领域的"大规模"支出热潮推动经济强劲 增长，美联储的降息幅度将远低于华尔街的预期。 掌管着2.8万亿美元资产的先锋集团固定收益主管Sara Devereux在接受采访时表示，继今秋两次降息25 个基点之后，她预计美联储只会再降息一到两次。这一预测与市场普遍押注的到2026年底降息三到四次 形成鲜明对比。 "目前市场定价中计入了太多的美联储降息预期。市场对此过度依赖，"Devereux指出，"也许我们只会 再看到一到两次降息。" Devereux补充道，美联储可能会在"明年年中"达到利率的"中性"水平，即借贷成本既不加速也不减缓经 济增长的状态。 Devereux对芯片、数据中心和其他基础设施AI支出的乐观态度，与近期投资者的焦虑情绪相左，后者担 心科技股的涨势已经过度。以科技股为主的纳斯达克综合指数本月下跌了约7%，大型科技集团发行的 债券价格也有所下跌。 Devereux警告称，随着市场消化包括亚马逊、Meta、Alphabet和甲骨文在内的公司发行的大量债券，企 业债价格可能会在未来几 ...

Core Insights - The discussion emphasizes the dual nature of AI as both a powerful tool and a potential risk, highlighting the need for responsible management and governance of technology [1][3][29] - The next frontier in AI is identified as "spatial intelligence," which involves AI's ability to understand, perceive, reason, and interact with the three-dimensional world [1][25] - The importance of democratizing AI technology is stressed, advocating for broader access and responsible usage rather than monopolization by a few large tech companies [1][3][24] Group 1: AI's Impact and Future - AI is described as a civilization-level technology that profoundly affects various aspects of life, work, and well-being [2][28] - The potential for job displacement due to AI is acknowledged, with historical parallels drawn to past technological advancements that reshaped labor markets [28] - The need for continuous learning and adaptation by individuals, businesses, and society in response to technological changes is emphasized [28] Group 2: Governance and Responsibility - Concerns regarding the governance of superintelligent AI are raised, questioning how humanity can prevent potential crises stemming from advanced AI systems [29][30] - The necessity for international cooperation and responsible development of AI technologies is highlighted, with a call for a global awareness of the implications of AI [30][31] - The role of educators in integrating AI responsibly into learning environments is underscored, stressing the importance of preparing future generations [32][34] Group 3: Environmental Considerations - The environmental impact of AI, particularly regarding energy consumption and the need for renewable energy sources, is discussed [31][32] - The potential for innovation in energy policies to support sustainable AI development is recognized as crucial [31][32] Group 4: Personal Insights and Experiences - The speaker's journey from a challenging upbringing to becoming a leader in AI research illustrates the importance of resilience and curiosity in scientific pursuits [17][18][19] - The influence of mentors and the significance of traditional values in education and personal development are acknowledged [19][34]

Group 1 - The ceasefire agreement between Israel and Hamas is currently being maintained, despite ongoing violence in Gaza, as stated by U.S. Ambassador to the UN, Mike Waltz [1] - The U.S. supports a peace plan that includes the establishment of an international stabilization force, which will work alongside Egypt and Israel during the IDF's withdrawal from Gaza [1] - The UN Security Council has approved a resolution supporting the U.S.-proposed peace plan, which aims to create a transitional government under a "peace commission" [1] Group 2 - The peace plan requires Hamas to disarm in subsequent phases and deploy an international stabilization force, but it has been rejected by Hamas and several Palestinian factions [2] - The first phase of the ceasefire saw Hamas release all 20 surviving Israeli hostages and return most of the bodies, although three bodies remain withheld due to equipment issues [2] - The U.S. plans to designate a Venezuelan drug trafficking group, allegedly led by Maduro, as a foreign terrorist organization, amid ongoing military actions against drug trafficking in the Caribbean and East Pacific [2] Group 3 - The U.S. has implemented measures to criminalize the actions of the "Cartel de los Soles" and restrict its members from entering the U.S., while allowing the government to seize the organization's funds [3] - The opioid crisis, particularly related to fentanyl, has resulted in more deaths in the past year than during the entire Vietnam War, highlighting the severity of the issue [3]

AI播客：换个方式听新闻 下载mp3 世界上最赚钱的对冲基金之一城堡证券（Citadel Securities）的股票策略主管Scott Rubner认为，标普500指数近期的"健康"回调已为强劲反弹奠 定基础，市场仓位和季节性趋势有望推动年末行情。Rubner是研究资金流的专家，曾是高盛集团的全球市场董事总经理兼战术专家。 Rubner在周四发给客户的报告中指出了多个利好因素：散户交易者持续的需求；机构投资者在感恩节假期前减少了对美国股票的敞口，这让他 们现在有更大的空间重新加仓；以及英伟达（NVDA）强劲的业绩，这可能会促使交易员在年底前迅速平仓对冲并重建头寸。 "年末派对并未取消，只是换了个地方举行，"Rubner在周四写道。他预计标普500指数将在年底前迈向7000点。 Rubner写道，季节性因素对股市有利，追溯到1928年的数据显示，标普500指数从现在到年底通常会上涨约4%。 Rubner还指出了他正在关注的一个关键群体：系统性投资者。这些基金根据价格趋势和波动性机械地调整敞口，它们"显然已进入去风险阶 段"，在最近的市场疲软中减少了股票持有量。对Rubner来说，这些机械性资金流出可能在未来几 ...

SHMET 网讯：据《莫斯科时报》报道，俄罗斯央行周三宣布，作为财政部充实国家预算行动的一 部分，已首次开始出售储备中的实体黄金。 "随着国内黄金市场流动性近年持续提升，俄罗斯央行目前在国内市场进行的等价操作开始部分通 过黄金完成，"一位央行发言人向国际文传电讯社表示。 资深分析师Stephen Innes在Fxstreet撰文称，在这个制裁资产无法流动、美元资产遭冻结、地缘政治 不断重构全球金融管道的时代，克里姆林宫最终认定：唯一仍能自由奔涌的储备池只剩黄金。俄罗斯国 内黄金市场的流动性动态已悄然蜕变，使央行得以将操作规模扩大到数年前无法想象的水平。这并非虚 张声势的作秀，而是一场结构性转向——在本就依靠恐慌情绪、供应缺口和去美元化浪潮支撑的市场 中，又增添了一股无声的东风。 俄罗斯央行未披露此次销售的具体时间表与规模。 Innes写道，制裁虽切断了国际通道，却意外迫使体系加速成熟——如今市场周转率已提升到足以 让央行开展黄金操作，为国家财富基金调整资产组合时，其精准程度堪比交易员将负债驱动型投资组合 向强势资产重新平衡。 在俄乌冲突全面爆发之前，国家财富基金持有405.7吨黄金。此后为弥补预算缺口，财政部 ...

亿万富翁投资者、桥水基金创始人瑞·达利欧（Ray Dalio）认为，即便你担心市场热潮是等待破裂的泡 沫，也不该过早放弃人工智能（AI）领域。 他周四接受CNBC采访时表示，他确信当前股市已深陷泡沫——但这仍不是投资者退出AI交易的理由。 达利欧向该媒体解释，投资者应留在市场的原因很简单：目前泡沫破裂的条件根本不存在。 "别只因泡沫就抛售，"这位传奇基金经理说，"你得把握时机。是什么会刺破泡沫？通常是货币政策收 紧，而我们现在不会面临这种情况。" 这与生成式AI领域正在上演的动态高度契合——AI热潮已将部分科技公司的估值推至极高水平。 近几周，投资者愈发担忧部分这类公司的盈利计划，同时也关注到该领域许多交易本质上具有循环性。 在达利欧看来，当市场出现资产清算需求时，泡沫才会最终破裂。他推测，美联储加息或消费者面临财 富税等事件可能引发抛售。 在可预见的未来，这两种情况在市场中似乎都不太可能发生。尽管美联储12月降息的前景因就业数据不 完整且表现强劲而受到审视，但根据芝商所美联储观察工具（CME FedWatch tool）的数据，市场预计 到明年6月，利率从当前水平下调的概率达96%。 达利欧曾多次警告风险资 ...

Core Viewpoint - Japan has issued its strongest warning yet regarding the recent volatility of the yen, with the finance minister indicating that intervention is a potential response to curb the yen's continued decline [1][4]. Group 1: Government Actions and Statements - Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama expressed deep concern over the extreme and rapid fluctuations in the foreign exchange market, stating that appropriate actions will be taken against disorderly movements, including potential intervention [1][4]. - The government is expected to announce a significant economic stimulus package, funded by an additional budget of 17.7 trillion yen (approximately 112 billion USD), which is the largest since the reduction of pandemic-era measures [4][5]. - Market participants are closely monitoring the 160 yen per dollar level, as the Japanese authorities have previously intervened in this range [3][7]. Group 2: Market Reactions and Speculations - The dollar briefly fell to 157.20 yen following the finance minister's comments but rebounded, remaining near its highest level since January [1]. - Analysts suggest that the yen is becoming a speculative tool, with market sensitivity to Japanese officials' comments diminishing, and macroeconomic factors supporting a weaker yen [4][6]. - There is speculation that Japan may intervene before the yen reaches the 160 mark, as the government believes it has sufficient foreign reserves to act if necessary [5][9]. Group 3: Historical Context and Future Outlook - Japan has previously intervened in the market four times last year to support the yen, costing approximately 100 billion USD, and has spent around 173 billion USD since 2022 on interventions [9]. - The Japanese government emphasizes that intervention will only occur in response to sudden, disorderly, or speculative fluctuations in the market [9][11]. - The yield on Japan's 10-year government bonds has risen to 1.8%, the highest since 2008, reflecting market optimism about the Japanese economy despite concerns over fiscal stability [5][6].

与库克一样，她说她认为金融体系状况良好，银行资本充足，家庭资产负债表稳健。但与库克一样，哈 玛克也表示她正在关注对冲基金的高杠杆水平，并认为私人信贷值得关注。 吴雨，金十数据 金融市场稳定担忧，包括资产价格可能急剧下跌的风险，正成为美联储官员讨论降息时机甚至是否降息 时的新主题。 在周四乔治城大学的演讲中，美联储理事丽莎·库克（Lisa Cook）并未特别就近期利率政策发表看法。 但她列举了一系列金融体系风险，包括快速增长的私人信贷市场、对冲基金在国债市场的交易，以及生 成式人工智能在机器交易中的应用。 库克还暗示，她不会对处于历史高位的资产价格崩盘感到惊讶——这些高估值资产支撑了整体消费支出 和更广泛的美国经济——尽管这种下跌本身并不意味着金融市场不稳定。"目前，我的感觉是资产价格 大幅下跌的可能性增加了。" 在早些时候的另一场合，克利夫兰联储主席贝丝·哈玛克（Beth Hammack）重申了她对进一步降息的反 对，因为通胀仍然过高，并表示她认为宽松的金融条件是反对降息的另一个理由。 虽然降息可能被视为为就业市场"购买保险"，但她说，"我们应该记住，这种保险可能以加剧金融稳定 风险为代价。" 巴尔支持美联储 ...