Group 1: Lead Market Insights - The International Lead and Zinc Study Group (ILZSG) forecasts a significant oversupply in the global refined lead market by 2026, with a surplus of 102,000 tons [1] - Global refined lead demand is expected to grow by 1.8% to 13.25 million tons in 2023 and by 0.9% to 13.37 million tons in 2026 [1] - Refined lead mine supply is projected to increase by 0.7% to 4.57 million tons in 2025 and by 2.2% to 4.67 million tons in 2026 [1] Group 2: Zinc Market Insights - Global refined zinc demand is anticipated to grow by 1.1% to 13.71 million tons in 2025 and by 1% to 13.86 million tons in 2026 [2] - Refined zinc metal production is expected to rise by 2.7% to 13.80 million tons in 2025 and further increase by 2.4% to 14.13 million tons in 2026 [2] - A surplus of 85,000 tons in refined zinc supply is expected in 2025, with the surplus projected to increase to 271,000 tons in 2026 [2]

Core Insights - Indonesia's refined tin exports in September decreased by 3.94% year-on-year, totaling 4,844.21 tons [2] - However, there was a significant month-on-month increase of nearly 50% compared to August's exports of 3,246.46 tons [2] Summary by Category - **Export Performance** - Year-on-year decline in September exports by 3.94% [2] - Month-on-month increase of nearly 50% from August [2] - **Volume Data** - September refined tin exports amounted to 4,844.21 tons [2] - August refined tin exports were recorded at 3,246.46 tons [2]

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Group 1 - In September 2025, China's imports of unwrought copper and copper products reached 485,000 tons, marking the highest monthly figure of the year and a slight year-on-year increase of 1% [2] - From January to September 2025, the cumulative import volume was 4.019 million tons, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 1.7% [2] - The traditional demand peak in September, known as "Golden September," contributed to the rebound in unwrought copper and copper products imports [2] Group 2 - As the world's largest copper consumer, China's industry chain faces three major challenges: increasing dependence on foreign upstream resources, overcapacity in the midstream processing sector, and suppressed downstream demand due to high copper prices [4] - To assist the industry in navigating these challenges, Shanghai Nonferrous Metals Network collaborated with copper industry chain enterprises to compile the "2026 China Copper Industry Chain Distribution Map," available in both Chinese and English [4]

Core Viewpoint - The London Metal Exchange (LME) plans to introduce a new mechanism to determine the premium customers are willing to pay for low-carbon metals that meet sustainability standards, addressing complaints from miners about competition with cheaper coal-produced metals [1][2]. Group 1: New Initiatives - LME will expand its existing partnership with the digital platform Metalshub, which currently facilitates low-carbon nickel trading, to include copper, aluminum, nickel, and zinc products that meet sustainability criteria [1]. - The new initiative is set to launch in the first quarter of next year, aiming to enhance trading volumes on Metalshub [1][4]. Group 2: Pricing Mechanism - The parent company of LME, Hong Kong Exchanges and Clearing, has established a new company in Dubai to independently set premium prices, which will assess buy and sell quotes if trading volumes on Metalshub are insufficient [2]. - LME has released a discussion paper outlining its proposed premium pricing methodology [4]. Group 3: Market Dynamics - LME's CEO Matthew Chamberlain noted that many end-users are reluctant to pay higher prices for sustainable products, indicating that some metals may not have any premium space [1]. - Since March of last year, Metalshub has completed 488 tons of low-carbon nickel transactions, reflecting initial market activity in this segment [3].

Core Insights - The report provides an overview of the inventory changes for various metals, including copper, aluminum, zinc, tin, and nickel, highlighting the fluctuations in registered and canceled warehouse receipts. Inventory Changes Summary Copper - Current inventory stands at 139,350 tons, a decrease of 50 tons from the previous day - Registered warehouse receipts are at 131,075 tons, with 8,275 tons canceled, representing a cancellation rate of 5.94% [1][3] Aluminum - Current inventory is 506,000 tons, down by 2,825 tons from the previous day - Registered warehouse receipts total 405,700 tons, with 100,300 tons canceled, leading to a cancellation rate of 19.82% [1][5] Zinc - Current inventory is 37,475 tons, a decrease of 475 tons - Registered warehouse receipts are at 22,900 tons, with 14,575 tons canceled, resulting in a cancellation rate of 38.89% [1][9] Tin - Current inventory is 2,385 tons, down by 25 tons - Registered warehouse receipts total 2,170 tons, with 215 tons canceled, leading to a cancellation rate of 9.01% [1][11] Nickel - Current inventory is 242,094 tons, an increase of 4,716 tons - Registered warehouse receipts are at 235,896 tons, with 6,198 tons canceled, resulting in a cancellation rate of 2.56% [1][13]

Core Viewpoint - The copper market is experiencing price fluctuations due to escalating trade tensions, with recent price drops being partially offset by a recovery in market sentiment. The domestic copper inventory continues to accumulate amid high prices, and uncertainties in trade dynamics persist, leading to a high-level retreat in copper prices while concerns about supply from mining remain [1]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - On Friday, copper prices fell by 2.06%, with a significant drop occurring during the night session due to trade friction [1]. - Domestic copper concentrate processing fees remain low at -40 USD/dry ton, indicating limited changes in the market, necessitating close monitoring of whether tight supply will continue to affect the smelting sector [1]. - Recent price movements have raised concerns that high copper prices may suppress downstream demand [1]. Group 2: Supply and Production Insights - Codelco of Chile has raised its estimate for copper production losses at the El Teniente project, although its overall production targets remain unchanged [1]. - The Freeport Indonesia mine accident is expected to result in a production cut of approximately 470,000 tons from Q4 this year to next year, which will significantly alter the global supply-demand balance, leading to a tight equilibrium in global copper supply and demand by 2026 [1]. Group 3: Macroeconomic Factors - The Federal Reserve has initiated interest rate cuts, with market expectations indicating two more cuts within the year, contributing to a macroeconomic environment of dual easing in fiscal and monetary policy in the U.S. [1]. - Following the resolution of current market shocks, copper prices are expected to continue their upward trend, suggesting opportunities for strategic buying on dips [1].

Core Insights - In September, China's copper ore and concentrate imports reached 2.587 million tons, with a cumulative import of 22.634 million tons from January to September, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 7.7% [1] - Conversely, the imports of unwrought copper and copper products in September were 485,000 tons, with a cumulative total of 4.019 million tons for the first nine months, showing a year-on-year decrease of 1.7% [1] - Exports of unwrought aluminum and aluminum products in September amounted to 521,000 tons, with a cumulative export of 4.516 million tons from January to September, indicating a decline of 8.1% year-on-year [1] Import Data - Copper ore and concentrate imports in September: 2.587 million tons, cumulative imports from January to September: 22.634 million tons, year-on-year increase: 7.7% [1] - Unwrought copper and copper products imports in September: 485,000 tons, cumulative imports from January to September: 4.019 million tons, year-on-year decrease: 1.7% [1] Export Data - Unwrought aluminum and aluminum products exports in September: 521,000 tons, cumulative exports from January to September: 4.516 million tons, year-on-year decrease: 8.1% [1]

Group 1 - The London Metal Exchange (LME) reported that copper inventories showed fluctuations, with the latest level at 139,400 tons, marking a relative low over the past two months [1] - The Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE) indicated a 15.42% increase in copper inventories for the week of October 10, reaching 109,690 tons, the highest level in over five months [1] - International copper inventories decreased by 604 tons to 11,673 tons [1] Group 2 - COMEX copper inventory reached 339,525 tons, the highest since May 2003 [1][4] - The data from October 10 shows a consistent increase in COMEX inventory from 327,073 tons on October 3 to 339,525 tons [4] - The overall trend indicates that declining inventories in domestic and international exchanges generally support copper prices, while increasing inventories may exert downward pressure [1]

Core Viewpoint - The global risk assets experienced a decline due to escalating trade tensions, with significant drops in nickel and tin prices observed in the market [1] Market Performance - On the night trading session last Friday, both Shanghai tin and nickel saw substantial declines, with tin dropping over 2% and nickel falling by 1.76% [1] Supply and Demand Dynamics - The nickel market continues to face a long-term oversupply situation, although strong nickel ore prices are providing some cost support [1] - Tin ore supply remains tight, with slow recovery in the Wa State tin mines in Myanmar, making it difficult to achieve significant production levels in the short term [1] - Overall consumption demand for tin is currently weak, limiting the fundamental drivers for price movements [1]