注：一般来说，国内外交易所库存不断下降将对期价形成支撑，反之，则对期价有所利空。 | 日期 | LME | 上期所 | | --- | --- | --- | | 2025/12/23 | 4, 675 | | | 2025/12/22 | 4, 625 | | | 2025/12/19 | 4, 645 | 8, 095 | | 2025/12/18 | 4, 425 | | | 2025/12/17 | 4, 190 | | | 2025/12/16 | 3, 815 | | | 2025/12/15 | 3, 795 | | | 2025/12/12 | 3, 670 | 7, 391 | | 2025/12/11 | 3, 695 | | | 2025/12/10 | 3, 655 | | | 2025/12/9 | 3, 050 | | | 2025/12/8 | 3, 075 | | | 2025/12/5 | 3, 085 | 6, 865 | | 2025/12/4 | 3, 175 | | | 2025/12/3 | 3, 195 | | | 2025/12/2 | 3, 145 | | | ...

分析师表示，国际铜业研究小组（ICSG）预测，2026年将出现15万吨的供应缺口，如果智利的项目停 滞不前，这一缺口还会扩大。 "从长远来看，建设新矿并非易事。全球经济想要投资的几乎所有领域都离不开铜，包括能源转型和人 工智能领域，"Benchmark Minerals公司铜分析师Albert Mackenzie 表示。 Guzmán称，智利2026年项目面临的主要风险在于社区关系，而非市场动态或2026年3月上任的新政府。 12月22日（周一），随着全球供应紧张的担忧导致铜价上涨，预计2026年，13个价值148亿美元的智利 铜矿项目将达到关键里程碑。 据官方数据显示，智利有望从中受益，其中7个国内项目计划于明年投产，新增近50万吨年产能，投资 额达71亿美元。 这些项目包括英美资源集团/嘉能可的Collahuasi基础设施和产能升级项目（即C20 项目）、智利国家铜 业公司（Codelco）的Rajo Inca结构项目、Capstone Copper公司的Mantos Blancos项目以及备受争议的 Andes Iron的Dominga项目。 另有六个开发项目计划开工建设，与铜在能源和技术领域的战略作用 ...

Summary of Key Points Core Viewpoint - The article provides a detailed schedule of trading hours for various exchanges during the holiday period from December 24 to December 26, 2025, highlighting early closures and market holidays for different commodities and indices [1]. Group 1: Trading Hours Overview - CME will have early closures for stock indices and interest rates on December 24, with no trading on December 25, and normal trading resuming on December 26 [1]. - NYMEX will also close early for crude oil and other energy products on December 24, with a complete market holiday on December 25, and normal trading on December 26 [1]. - CBOT will see early closures for agricultural products on December 24, a market holiday on December 25, and delayed opening on December 26 [1]. Group 2: Specific Commodities and Indices - ICE (U.S.) will have early closures for cotton, coffee, cocoa, and orange juice on December 24, with a market holiday on December 25, and normal trading on December 26 for certain products [1]. - CBOE will close early for the VIX index on December 24, with no trading on December 25, and normal trading on December 26 [1]. - HKEX will operate half-day trading on December 24, with a market holiday on December 25, and no trading on December 26 [1].

Core Viewpoint - LME copper prices reached a historic high, surpassing $12,000 per ton, driven by a weaker dollar and expectations of tightening supply, with speculative buying momentum boosted by year-end trading activity [1] Group 1: Copper Market Dynamics - On December 23, LME three-month copper rose by $135.5, or 1.14%, closing at $12,060.5 per ton, with an intraday peak of $12,159.50 [1][2] - Year-to-date, copper prices have increased by 37%, marking the largest annual gain since 2009, despite a reported surplus of 12,200 tons in the first ten months of the year [3] - Anticipation of U.S. import tariffs on refined copper starting in 2027 is leading to tighter supply in traditional consumption centers [3] Group 2: Economic Indicators - The U.S. GDP grew at an annualized rate of 4.3% in Q3, up from 3.8% in Q2, driven by increased consumer spending, exports, and government expenditure [3][4] - Goldman Sachs forecasts that copper prices will stabilize at an average of $11,400 per ton in 2026 amid tariff uncertainties, with potential declines expected in late 2026 and early 2027 as U.S. inventories decrease [4] Group 3: Other Metals Performance - LME three-month nickel increased by $463, or 3.03%, closing at $15,739.0 per ton, reaching a near seven-month high of $15,980 earlier in the day [4] - LME three-month aluminum fell by $2.5, or 0.08%, to $2,939.0 per ton, while zinc rose by $8.5, or 0.28%, to $3,093.5 per ton [4] - LME three-month lead increased by $11, or 0.56%, to $1,982.5 per ton, whereas tin decreased by $155, or 0.36%, to $42,792.0 per ton [4]

（截至12月23日19:26分，伦铜的价格走势） （文华综合） 受美元走软及供应紧张相关担忧支撑，伦敦金属交易所（LME）期铜再创历史新高，三个月期铜合约升穿12,000美元/吨，稍早高见12,038.50美元/吨。 ...

数据来源：海关总署 据海关总署数据显示，2025年11月中国镍湿法中间品进口量17.85万吨，环比增加2.73万吨，增幅 18.02%；同比增加6.28万吨，增幅54.28%。创仅次于9月的第二高位。其中自印度尼西亚进口量为15.89 万吨，环比增加18.75%，占当月进口量的88.99%。2025年1-11月镍湿法冶炼中间品进口总量170.89万 吨，同比增加31.38%。 ...

据海关总署数据显示，2025年11月中国镍锍进口量4万吨，环比增加1.16万吨，增幅41.03%；同比增加 1.53万吨，增幅68.36%。其中自印度尼西亚进口量为3.78万吨，环比增加35.41%，占本月进口量的 94.52%。2025年1-11月镍锍进口总量39.29万吨，同比减少0.66%。 数据来源：海关总署 ...

数据来源：海关总署 据海关总署数据显示，2025年11月中国镍的硫酸盐进口量为31818吨，环比增加9762吨，增幅44.3%； 同比增加13744吨，增幅76.0%。其中，印尼进口量为17935吨，韩国进口量为1529吨，芬兰进口量为 9090吨。 2025年1-11月中国镍的硫酸盐进口量累计243594吨，同比增幅22.1%。 ...

Group 1 - The core point of the article highlights that China's imports of tin ore and concentrates in November 2025 showed a year-on-year decrease of 0.67% but a month-on-month increase of 12.73% [1] - Imports from Myanmar significantly increased, with a total of 7,190.21 tons (approximately 1,636.05 metal tons), marking a year-on-year increase of 92.16% and a month-on-month increase of 89.94% [1] - The total imports from other countries, excluding Myanmar, amounted to 7,909.13 tons (approximately 3,941.99 metal tons), reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 17.29% and a month-on-month decrease of 3.58% [1] Group 2 - The cumulative imports of tin concentrates from January to November reached approximately 118,100 tons, with a year-on-year decrease of 1.88% [1] - The significant increase in tin ore imports from Myanmar indicates a gradual recovery in production resumption [1]

据海关总署数据显示，2025年11月中国精锡进口量为1195吨，同比减少66.05%，环比增加127.04%， 2025年1-11月中国锡锭进口总量1.77万吨。11月进口窗口基本处于关闭状态，本次进口量大部分来自此 前部分贸易商在LME锡盘面上所做的单边行情订购的进口锡，实际数量有限。 中国11月出口精锡1946吨，同比增加33.57%，环比增加31.46%。出口主要为进料加工贸易，销往荷 兰、韩国、印度、日本等精锡消费地。2025年1-11月中国锡锭出口总量2万吨，同比增长32.41%，2025 年1-11累计净出口精锡2298吨。 （文华综合） 数据来源：海关总署 ...