Group 1 - LME three-month copper price decreased by $21.5, or 0.22%, closing at $9,878.0 per ton, after reaching a three-month high of $9,917 [1] - The copper price increased by 2.2% during the week, indicating a generally positive trend despite the recent decline [1] - Shanghai Futures Exchange copper price rose by 1.5% to 79,920 yuan (approximately $11,148.93), with a weekly increase of 2% [3] Group 2 - China's industrial enterprises reported a total profit of 27,204.3 billion yuan from January to May, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 1.1% [3] - The expectation of U.S. tariffs on imported copper has attracted the metal to the U.S., causing shortages elsewhere [3] - LME copper inventory plummeted by 66%, leading to a significant rise in spot contract premiums [4] Group 3 - The premium for LME spot copper contracts fell from a peak of $320 per ton to $207, after reaching the highest level since November 2021 [4] - Comex copper price decreased by 0.2% to $5.11 per pound, resulting in a premium of $1,394 per ton over LME copper, the highest since April 22 [4]

Group 1 - The U.S. first-quarter consumption has been revised down, leading to a drop in the dollar index below 97, a three-year low, while copper prices have surged, boosting non-ferrous metals [1] - Tin supply remains tight due to insufficient mining permits in Myanmar and transportation restrictions from Thailand, impacting tin imports [1] - Domestic processing fees are low, with smelters facing losses and reduced raw material inventories, resulting in smelter operating rates below normal levels [1] Group 2 - The recovery of tin supply is expected to improve with the resumption of transportation from African tin mines and the progress in Myanmar's production, although the timing and scale of recovery remain uncertain [1] - In the photovoltaic sector, orders for tin bars in East China have declined post-installation rush, leading to reduced operating rates among some producers [1] - The electronics sector in South China is entering a low season, with high tin prices causing a cautious approach among end-users, maintaining only essential orders [1][2]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article indicates a significant decline in aluminum premiums for Japan in Q3, with a drop of 40.66% compared to Q2, reflecting a challenging market environment [1] - The assessed import price for primary aluminum in Japan is set at a premium of $108 per ton over the LME spot price, based on transactions reported between May 30 and June 26 [1] - The price range during negotiations for the Japanese landed price was between $130 and $145 per ton, which is 20-29% lower than the final settled price of $182 per ton in Q2 [2] Group 2 - Market participants expect the aluminum premium for Q3 to be between $105 and $115 per ton, influenced by weak demand from the construction and automotive sectors [3] - The U.S. has imposed a 25% tariff on automobiles since April 2, which has negatively impacted demand in the automotive industry [3] - The U.S. aluminum tariff was increased from 25% to 50% on June 4, leading to decreased export interest to the U.S. and an overall oversupply in Europe and Asia [3] Group 3 - Two projects are expected to come online in Q4, but the short-term outlook for Asia remains bearish due to anticipated supply increases and weak demand [4] - The inventory at Japanese major ports was reported at 331,000 tons at the end of May, reflecting a month-on-month increase of 3.34% but a year-on-year decrease of 6.50% [5]

Group 1: Investment in Nickel and Copper Industry - Indonesia has attracted over $80 billion in investments for nickel smelting plants over the past decade, and is rapidly becoming a significant player in the copper smelting industry as global demand for copper rises [1] - In the past year, Indonesia has attracted over $9 billion in investments in the copper sector, including a large copper refining facility by Freeport Indonesia in East Java and a new smelting plant by Amman Mineral in West Nusa Tenggara [1][2] - The Indonesian Chamber of Commerce and Industry anticipates more copper smelting plants will emerge, contingent on sufficient financing and long-term investments [2] Group 2: Demand for Copper in Electric Vehicles - Analysts indicate that interest in copper processing plants is increasing, driven by the significant rise in electric vehicle production, with each battery pack for medium-sized electric vehicles containing approximately 10% copper, or about 80 kilograms [2] - By 2030, Indonesia's annual sales of four-wheeled electric vehicles are expected to reach 195,000 units, and two-wheeled electric vehicles are projected to reach 5 million units, with each four-wheeled vehicle requiring 83 kilograms of copper [3] Group 3: Current and Future Copper Production - Freeport Indonesia's copper refining facility in East Java is expected to produce at least 1.1 million tons of cathode copper annually, moving the country from sixth to fifth in global rankings for this category [4] - The new copper refining facility in East Java resumed operations in late May after a temporary closure due to a fire, with a processing capacity of 1.7 million tons of copper concentrate, yielding 650,000 tons of cathode copper [4][5] - Amman Mineral began producing cathode copper in March and is currently fine-tuning new equipment to achieve full and continuous capacity, with a processing capacity of 900,000 tons of copper concentrate [5] Group 4: Investment Potential and Industry Gaps - Indonesia has 220.3 million tons of copper reserves, ranking 10th globally, but its refined copper output ranks 16th, indicating a significant investment potential in the copper refining sector [3] - The current copper processing facilities primarily produce anode copper for decorative coatings and cathode copper for electric vehicle batteries, but there is a lack of facilities for producing sintered copper products for automotive electrical systems [3][4]

随着通胀的加剧和基础设施建设等因素推动资本支出增加，资本成本越来越成为建设新铜矿的挑战。 "当前约4.50美元/磅的铜价，相当于大约三年前的3.5美元/磅左右。这是我们在开发项目时出现的增量通胀。" 第一量子（First Quantum Minerals）首席执行官Tristan Pascall在伦敦矿业大会(London Indaba)上告诉与会者，矿商面临的资本成本远高于其他全球行业。 韦丹塔基本金属（Vedanta Base Metals）首席执行官Chris Griffith在演讲中表示，新的铜项目的资本密集度已从每千吨约1500万美元增加到现在的平均约2500 万美元。 随着采矿项目规模的扩大，获得必要投资回报的能力推动了对更高的激励性铜价的追求。 Pascall表示："我认为实际铜价并没有太大变动。我们需要重新理解通货膨胀。在新冠疫情爆发之前，我们经历了很长一段时间的低通胀，以至于我们习惯 于用绝对术语来谈论，而我们应该用与通胀相关的术语来谈论。" Pascall表示："作为一个行业，我们现在面临着最高的资本成本之一。现实情况是，我们确实必须去市场开发这些大型资本项目。作为全球最大的矿商，必 和必 ...

Group 1 - LME copper prices surged to a nearly three-month high, driven by a weak dollar, supply concerns, and speculative buying after key technical levels were breached [1][3] - As of June 26, LME three-month copper rose by $187, or 1.93%, closing at $9,899.5 per ton, marking the strongest level since March 27 [1][2] - The premium of LME spot copper contracts over three-month copper rebounded to $310 per ton, the highest since November 2021 [4] Group 2 - The dollar index fell to its lowest level since early 2022, weakening confidence in the robustness of U.S. monetary policy, which supports commodity prices [3] - Active buying in the Chinese copper market was noted, with Shanghai Futures Exchange copper contracts rising by 0.6% to 79,000 yuan (approximately $11,022.74), the highest since June 11 [6] - LME copper has increased by 22% since hitting a low of $8,105 per ton in April 2023 [6] Group 3 - Other base metals also saw price increases, with LME three-month zinc rising by $63.5, or 2.35%, to $2,768.0 per ton, and three-month tin increasing by $556, or 1.68%, to $33,749.0 per ton [2][6]

SHMET 网讯： 征稿(作者：弘业期货 张天骜）--在经过长期的博弈和多轮谈判后，目前关税问题仍未有明显进展。中 美临时保持10%关税至8月10日，而美国对其他国家保持10%临时关税至7月9日。未来关税问题仍是影 响全球经济增长的最主要因素，存在较大的不确定性。 一、行情回顾 （一）一季度有色金属走势偏强 2025年国际宏观环境风云突变，大宗商品市场波动较大。一季度市场受到美联储降息预期和中国经济温 和反弹的支撑，市场整体走势偏强。汇率方面，美元持续大跌，人民币小幅上涨。在外部形势恶化的压 力下，中国保持政策定力。在并未实施大规模经济刺激的情况下，经济数据稳中有升，给市场带来的更 好的预期。一季度，国内工业品和农产品多数震荡走高。 （二）关税影响，4月初有色金属大跌后持续反弹 进入4月后，美国对等关税政策对市场造成巨大冲击，市场情绪急转直下。避险情绪推动，工业品全面 暴跌，农产品大涨。但很快美国宣布将对等关税推迟90日执行，同时与各国逐步展开贸易谈判，市场情 绪明显好转。因此，4月初大跌后，有色金属震荡反弹，目前回到4月初价格附近。 二、宏观基本面情况 （一）关税仍是最大变数 4月3日，美国公布对等关税计划 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that the tin market is experiencing a tight supply situation due to slow recovery in Myanmar's tin mines, leading to a significant increase in tin prices, which reached a nearly one-month high with a rise of 1.95% to 267,270 yuan/ton [1] - Domestic tin concentrate processing fees have dropped to historical lows, nearing the cost line for smelting enterprises, resulting in squeezed profit margins and prompting some companies to reduce production or undergo maintenance [1] - The downstream electronics industry is entering a low season, and with current high tin prices, there is a prevailing wait-and-see sentiment among end-users, contributing to weak consumption during the off-peak season [1] Group 2 - In May, China's tin ore imports increased month-on-month, with significant contributions from Africa, although the actual output from Myanmar remains low due to slow recovery, with only a few dozen tons exported from Wa State [1] - The import window for tin ingots opened briefly in late April to early May but began to close after mid-May, with some traders relying on previously locked-in prices for shipments [2] - The market outlook suggests that while supply constraints exist due to raw material shortages in Yunnan and reduced scrap tin recovery in Jiangxi, the demand side is showing significant reductions, leading to expectations of a slight oversupply and pressure on tin prices [2]

6月25日（周三），伦敦金属交易所（LME）期铜在伊朗和以色列暂时停火的支撑下上涨，这改善了整 体市场情绪，金属市场的注意力转移到了现货铜合约溢价的大幅下跌上。 渣打银行分析师Sudakshina Unnikrishnan表示，本季度迄今为止，铜价一直保持稳定，因为铜受全球经 济增长前景担忧、铜精矿供应受限和LME注册仓库库存减少等因素左右。 伦敦时间6月25日17:00(北京时间6月26日00:00)，LME三个月期铜上涨43.5美元，或0.45%，收报每吨 9,712.5美元。 | | 6月25日 LME基本金属收盘报价(美元/吨) | | | --- | --- | --- | | 全屋 | 收盘价 | 张跌 张跌幅 | | 三个月期铜 | 9.712.50 ↑ | +43.50 ↑ +0.45% | | 三个月期铝 | 2,563.50 ↓ | -15.50 J -0.60% | | 三个月期锌 | 2,704.50 ↑ | +23.00 ↑ +0.86% | | 三个月期铅 | 2,032.00 ↑ | +13.00 ↑ +0.64% | | 三个月期镇 | 15,074.00 ↑ | +154.0 ...

Group 1 - LME and SHFE copper prices experienced slight increases due to a weaker dollar and a temporary ceasefire between Iran and Israel, with LME three-month copper rising by 0.34% to $9,702 per ton and SHFE August copper contract increasing by 0.47% to ¥78,810 per ton [1] - The ceasefire between Israel and Iran is seen as a potential stabilizing factor, although analysts caution that it may not be a final resolution, and the market is awaiting clearer signals [1] - The Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell maintained a cautious stance regarding interest rate cuts, with the market estimating a 18% chance of a rate cut in July, contributing to the dollar's weakness and making dollar-denominated metals more attractive to buyers using other currencies [1] Group 2 - Lead smelters have increased the supply of second-hand electric bicycle batteries in preparation for rising summer lead demand, which has positively impacted primary lead prices [2] - Electric bicycles typically require more frequent battery replacements during summer due to reduced battery lifespan in hot weather [3] - Other LME metals showed mixed performance, with three-month aluminum down by 0.47% to $2,567 per ton, while three-month tin, zinc, and nickel saw increases of 0.68%, 0.73%, and 0.64% respectively [3]