Group 1 - The Democratic Republic of Congo's copper exports are projected to increase by nearly 10% in 2025, rising from 3.1 million tons to 3.4 million tons [2] - The surge in copper demand is driven by the transition to clean energy and the artificial intelligence industry [2] - Copper prices have risen by 40% over the past 12 months, reaching a historical high of over $14,500 per ton at the end of January [2] Group 2 - Chile is expected to produce 5.3 million tons of copper in 2025, maintaining its status as the world's largest copper producer [3] Group 3 - China's copper industry faces three major challenges: increasing dependence on foreign upstream resources, overcapacity in the midstream processing sector, and suppressed downstream demand due to high copper prices [4]

Core Viewpoint - The copper market is experiencing slight upward movement, but overall momentum is weak due to increasing global inventories and seasonal demand slowdown in China [1] Group 1: Market Performance - Shanghai copper prices rose by 0.39% amid a narrow trading range [1] - The market sentiment is generally positive, influenced by stronger surrounding metals [1] Group 2: Economic Indicators - U.S. non-farm payrolls exceeded market expectations, and the unemployment rate continues to decline, reducing the urgency for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates [1] - The U.S. dollar index has stabilized as a result of these employment data [1] Group 3: Inventory Trends - Global visible copper inventories are on the rise, with LME copper stocks increasing to over 190,000 tons, the highest level in nearly nine months [1] - Domestic copper inventories are also accumulating, particularly as the market enters a traditional demand lull with downstream sectors starting to take holidays [1] Group 4: Supply and Demand Dynamics - Codelco's Teniente mine is expected to maintain low production levels due to a collapse incident, contributing to a slower growth rate in global refined copper supply [1] - Despite the seasonal accumulation of domestic inventories slowing down, the overall supply-demand balance suggests that copper prices will likely remain in a high-level consolidation phase [1]

2月11日（周三），刚果民主共和国矿业部长Louis Watum Kabamba表示，如果与美国的矿产合作框架不 能带来具体项目，该国将寻找其他合作伙伴。 他称，目前该国矿产资源开采率还不到10%。 （文华财经） "它可能会成为一个很好的大型项目。它也可能成为另一个他们不感兴趣的项目。我们会继续，因为还 有许多其他合作伙伴可以讨论。" 刚果拥有巨量的钴、铜和锂矿藏，2025年12月，该国与美国签署了一项框架协议，旨在为数据中心、国 防和电动汽车使用的关键矿物开发供应链。 "对于那些认为我们会白白把一切卖给美国的人，我必须非常明确地说：我们什么也没卖，也不会白 卖。" "我们与美国所做的一切都是一个框架，我们将在这个框架下讨论共同感兴趣的问题。这就是全部。" ...

Core Insights - South America is positioned to become a cornerstone for the West's strategic realignment of critical mineral supply chains [1] - The research highlights the potential of Argentina, Brazil, Chile, and Peru in the context of supply chain rebalancing opportunities [1] Industry Analysis - Verisk Maplecroft's study evaluates ten emerging markets with significant reserves of cobalt, copper, graphite, lithium, nickel, and rare earth elements [1] - The region possesses abundant critical mineral reserves, which are essential for various industries, including technology and renewable energy [1] Political and Economic Considerations - The study notes the presence of resource nationalism and political risks in South America, which could impact the stability of mineral supply chains [1]

俄罗斯诺里尔斯克镍公司（Nornickel）在周三公布的业绩报告显示，2025年，全球镍市场连续第四年出 现供应过剩，过剩量约24万吨，主要得益于供应持续增长，其中印尼的供应增长尤为显著，印尼的镍产 量约占全球供应量的66%。 2025年，受不锈钢（同比增长4%）、合金（同比增长5%）、特种钢（同比增长2%）和电池（同比增长 2%）行业的推动，原镍消费量同比增长6%至362万吨。 供应方面，原镍供应量同比增长6%至386万吨，反映出印尼产能的持续扩张。2025年，印尼镍生铁 （NPI）产量同比增长15%，而印尼（同比增长89%）和中国（同比增长26%）的1级镍产量均有所增 长。与此同时，中国镍生铁产量同比下降11%，全球镍铁产量与上年持平。 **镍市场前景** 谨慎乐观；2026年镍市场供需平衡存在高度不确定性，取决于印尼政府减产计划能否实施。Nornickel认 为，如果事态发展按照最激进的情景进行，市场可能实现供需平衡，也可能出现供需缺口。同时，如果 维持现状，市场过剩将增至27.5万吨。 该公司认为，在印尼未大幅减产的情况下，受该国新项目投产的推动，镍产量将同比增长6%至410万 吨。与此同时，受不锈钢 ...

Group 1 - Nickel prices on the London Metal Exchange (LME) have risen for the fourth consecutive trading day, driven by a significant reduction in production quotas for the world's largest nickel mine in Indonesia [1][2] - The three-month nickel price on LME increased by $390, or 2.23%, closing at $17,880 per ton, with an intraday high of $18,020, marking the highest level since January 30 [1] - Indonesia's commitment to reducing supply has led to a 22.8% increase in nickel prices over the past two months, highlighting the country's significant influence in the global nickel market, controlling about 60% of global production [3] Group 2 - The initial production quota for the PT Weda Bay Nickel project, a joint venture between Eramet and Chinese Tsingshan Group, has been drastically reduced from 32 million wet tons in 2025 to 12 million wet tons in 2026 [2] - Despite the price increases, the International Nickel Study Group forecasts a surplus of 261,000 tons for the year [4] Group 3 - Other base metals have also seen price increases, with three-month copper rising by $58.5, or 0.45%, to $13,166.5 per ton, and reaching a one-week high of $13,480 [5] - Three-month aluminum prices increased by $10, or 0.32%, closing at $3,103 per ton [7] - Three-month zinc prices rose by $11.5, or 0.34%, to $3,406.5 per ton, while lead prices increased by $18.5, or 0.94%, to $1,993 per ton [8][9]

LME铜库存 | 地点 | | 前日库存 入库 出库 | | 今日库存 | 变动 | 注册仓单 | 注销仓单 | 注销占比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 铜 | 189100 | 3000 | 0 | 192100 | +3000 | 169650 | 22450 | 11.69% | | 高雄 | 82425 | 3000 | 0 | 85425 | +3000 | 73425 | 12000 | 14.05% | | 米阳 | 28575 | 0 | 0 | 28575 | 0 | 23175 | 5400 | 18.90% | | हैं। | 22750 | 0 | 0 | 22750 | 0 | 19375 | 3375 | 14.84% | | 新奥尔良 | 18475 | 0 | 0 | 18475 | 0 | 18475 | 0 | 0.00% | | 首港 | 11250 | 0 | 0 | 11250 | 0 | 11200 | 50 | 0.44% | | 鹿特丹 | 10275 | 0 | 0 | ...

2月11日（周三），铜价因美元走软而攀升，尽管在将于周末开始的中国九天春节假期前夕，需求有所 放缓。 上海期货交易所主力期铜合约上涨0.31%，收报每吨102,180元。 上期所铜库存上周五升至3月以来最高水平，美国Comex铜库存则创下536,563吨的历史新高。 其他基本金属中，沪镍领涨，上涨4.02%，报每吨139,360元。LME三个月期镍上涨2.66%至每吨17,955 美元。 印尼当地媒体周二晚间报道称，该国最大镍生产商已批准2026年镍矿开采配额约为2.6亿至2.7亿吨。 麦格理集团大宗商品策略董事总经理Jim Lennon在报告中指出："印尼政府已着手在2026年削减煤炭和 镍矿开采许可，这可能导致产量和出口量下降。" 上海期货交易所其他金属方面，铝上涨0.49%，报每吨23,660元；锌上涨0.57%，报每吨24,585元；铅上 涨0.39%，报每吨16,740元；锡上涨3.27%，报每吨394,700元。 伦敦金属交易所其他金属方面，三个月期铝上涨0.81%，至每吨3,118.00美元；三个月期锌上涨0.94%， 至每吨3,427.00美元；三个月期铅上涨0.33%，至每吨1,981.00 ...

2月10日（周二），印度尼西亚多家当地媒体周二晚援引矿业部官员Tri Winarno的话报道称，印度尼西 亚目前已为2026年批准了约2.6亿至2.7亿吨镍矿开采配额。 ...

Group 1 - Codelco's El Teniente project is expected to produce 301,000 tons of copper this year, following a fatal accident last year that impacted production [2][4][5] - The company anticipates that production levels will likely remain stable around current levels for the next five years [3][4] - Codelco aims to recover mineral resources from the northern section of the mine based on ongoing research [6] Group 2 - China, as the largest copper consumer, faces three major challenges: increasing reliance on foreign resources, overcapacity in the midstream processing sector, and suppressed downstream demand due to high copper prices [6]