Group 1: Market Overview - LME copper prices declined due to a stronger dollar and positive U.S. employment data, suggesting the Fed may not cut rates immediately [1][3] - As of July 3, LME three-month copper closed at $9,954.50 per ton, down $58.50 or 0.58% [1][2] Group 2: Employment Data Impact - The U.S. added 147,000 non-farm jobs in June, exceeding expectations, while the unemployment rate unexpectedly fell to 4.1% [3] - These employment figures diminish the likelihood of a Fed rate cut in July, despite pressures from tariffs and immigration policies [3] Group 3: Copper Market Dynamics - The potential for tariffs on copper imports is influencing market perceptions, with COMEX copper prices approximately $1,300 per ton higher than LME prices [4] - LME copper inventories have decreased by 65% since February, now standing at 94,325 tons, which may attract metal back to the LME market [4] Group 4: Price Adjustments and Forecasts - UBS raised its copper price forecasts for 2025 and 2026 by 7% and 4%, respectively, reversing previous cautious demand outlooks due to reduced tariff uncertainties [4] - Other base metals showed mixed performance, with LME three-month aluminum down $15, zinc down $7, lead up $4.5, nickel up $149, and tin up $134 [2][5][6][7][8][9]

Core Viewpoint - The London Metal Exchange (LME) copper prices reached a three-month high due to uncertainties surrounding U.S. tariffs, which increased the premium of U.S. copper over LME copper, despite a moderate inflow of LME copper stocks alleviating tightness in the market [1][3]. Group 1: Copper Market - On July 2, LME three-month copper rose by $79, or 0.8%, closing at $10,013 per ton, with an intraday high of $10,020.5, the highest level since March 26 [1][2]. - The premium of U.S. Comex copper over LME copper is 14%, as market expectations suggest that the investigation into potential U.S. copper import tariffs will take longer, while the White House focuses on "reciprocal" tariff negotiations [3][4]. - Alastair Munro from Marex stated that U.S. copper is the real leader in the market, with LME spot copper contracts trading at a premium of $85 per ton over three-month copper, down from $320 per ton last week, the highest level since November 2021 [4]. Group 2: Other Metals Market - LME three-month aluminum increased by $21.5, or 0.83%, closing at $2,620.0 per ton [5]. - LME three-month zinc rose by $43.5, or 1.6%, closing at $2,757.5 per ton [6]. - LME three-month lead increased by $21.5, or 1.05%, closing at $2,059.5 per ton [7]. - LME three-month nickel rose by $96, or 0.63%, closing at $15,302.0 per ton [8]. - LME three-month tin increased by $53, or 0.16%, closing at $33,714.0 per ton [9].

Group 1 - LME copper prices reached a three-month high, testing the $10,000 per ton mark, closing at $9,934.00, up $65.00 or 0.66% [1][2][3] - The manufacturing PMI in China rose to 49.7% in June, indicating a slight improvement in economic conditions, supported by policies in exports, consumption, and infrastructure [3][4] - The overall supply of copper remains tight, with LME registered warehouse stocks down 66% since mid-February, contributing to strong demand and a premium in the spot market [4] Group 2 - The US manufacturing sector continues to show weakness, with the ISM manufacturing PMI at 49.0, indicating contraction for the fourth consecutive month [4][5] - The Federal Reserve's Chairman Powell indicated a cautious approach to interest rate cuts, suggesting potential action later in the year [5] - Other base metals showed mixed performance, with aluminum slightly up by $1.00 or 0.04%, while zinc, lead, nickel, and tin experienced declines [6][7][8][9][10]

Market Overview - Tin is a globally priced commodity, but it is considered a small commodity compared to copper and aluminum due to its limited presence in the Earth's crust [1] - The global distribution of tin resources is concentrated in China, Indonesia, Myanmar, and Australia, with limited new mines in recent years leading to low supply elasticity [1] - The supply disruptions, particularly after Myanmar's ban on tin mining in August 2023, have significantly impacted the market [1] Price Trends - In the first phase from January to early April 2025, tin prices on the Shanghai Futures Exchange rose from 240,000 yuan/ton to a peak of 299,990 yuan/ton, marking a 25% increase due to supply disruptions from Africa and Myanmar [2] - Following this, prices fell over 13% to around 260,000 yuan/ton due to negative market sentiment and the announcement of tariffs by the U.S. [2][4] - The lowest price recorded in 2025 was 235,000 yuan/ton, influenced by the resumption of operations at the Bisie mine in the Democratic Republic of Congo [2][4] Supply Dynamics - Myanmar is the third-largest tin producer globally, contributing 15%-20% of the total supply, with the Wa region accounting for 90% of its production [4] - After the ban on mining in Myanmar, China's tin ore imports have significantly declined, with May 2025 imports at 13,400 tons, a 36.39% month-on-month increase but a 36.51% year-on-year decrease [5] - The supply situation remains tight, with domestic smelting fees declining and production affected by raw material shortages [7] Recovery Challenges - The recovery of tin mining in Myanmar has faced delays due to various factors, including rising costs of essential materials and a decrease in ore quality [10] - The resumption of operations in Myanmar is crucial for supply recovery, but the process is slow and complicated by external factors such as natural disasters and policy changes [9][10] Demand Factors - The global semiconductor market is experiencing cyclical changes, with a slowdown in growth expected in 2025, impacting demand for tin in electronics [13] - Domestic consumption of electronic products is also weak, with smartphone shipments showing only modest growth [15] - The overall demand for tin is being suppressed by high prices and cautious purchasing behavior from downstream buyers [17] Future Outlook - The core issue in the tin market remains the supply side, with a tight supply situation expected to persist in the short term due to slow recovery in Myanmar [21] - The second half of 2025 will be critical for assessing the recovery of tin supply, particularly from Myanmar and Africa [21] - Short-term price stability is anticipated, but a downward trend may emerge as supply conditions improve [21]

Core Viewpoint - The London Metal Exchange (LME) copper prices experienced a slight decline amid ongoing trade discussions between Canada and the United States, with three-month copper closing at $9,869.00 per ton, down $9.00 or 0.09% [1]. Group 1: Market Performance - On June 30, LME three-month copper closed at $9,869.00, down $9.00 or 0.09% [2]. - Other metals showed mixed performance, with three-month aluminum up $2.50 or 0.10% at $2,597.50, while three-month zinc fell $27.50 or 0.99% to $2,751.50 [2][6]. - The overall market sentiment was positive, with strong risk appetite noted in financial markets [3]. Group 2: Economic Indicators - China's Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for June indicated a slight recovery, with manufacturing PMI at 49.7%, non-manufacturing PMI at 50.5%, and composite PMI at 50.7%, all showing increases from the previous month [3]. - The cancellation of Canada's digital services tax aimed to advance stalled trade negotiations with the U.S., boosting market confidence [3]. Group 3: Commodity Production - Chile's copper production in May reached 486,574 tons, a 9.4% increase year-on-year, reinforcing its position as the largest copper producer globally [5]. - Guinea's bauxite exports surged by 39% in the first quarter, reaching a record 48.6 million tons, despite regulatory challenges faced by major operators [5].

Group 1 - London copper prices experienced a slight decline, with three-month copper down by $36 or 0.36% to $9,842 per ton, following a three-month high reached last Friday [3] - The Shanghai copper market saw the most active August contract drop by 120 yuan or 0.15% to 79,650 yuan per ton [5] - The financial markets were buoyed by the announcement from the Canadian government to cancel the digital services tax, aiming for a "mutually beneficial comprehensive trade arrangement" with the U.S. [5][6] Group 2 - The dollar's weakness provided support to the metal markets, keeping the dollar index near a three-year low [7] - A weaker dollar makes dollar-denominated commodities cheaper for overseas buyers, potentially increasing demand [8] - COMEX copper fell by 0.8% to $5.08 per pound, with the premium of COMEX over LME copper slightly decreasing to $1,365 per ton [9]

就供应端而言，我国政策限制了电解铝的产能天花板，令电解铝供应难以明显增加，而目前铝供应又以铝水为主，导致交割品铝锭占比低，供应端利多铝 价。 成本：吨铝盈利水平高，但影响有限 电解铝的原材料主要为氧化铝、预焙阳极、氟化铝等。氧化铝是生产电解铝的主要原材料，占氧化铝生产成本的42%。由于氧化铝产业并没有执行产能限 制，当前氧化铝产能依然可以扩张。据阿拉丁，5月，我国氧化铝总产能为11242万吨，在产产能为8950万吨，开工率为79.61%。由于有色价格普涨，氧化 铝期货价格近期表现尚可，出现小幅走强。截至6月27日，氧化铝期货主连收于 2986元/吨。然而，在供过于求基本面的影响下，氧化铝价格上行空间预计 比较有限。 SHMET 网讯： 6月中旬，沪铝价出现一波走强，其中AL2506在交割前出现快速拉涨，一度逼近21000元/吨整数关口。究其原因，主要是因为当前电解铝社会库存持续下 降，并处于历史低位，为逼仓创造了条件。展望后市，由于供应无法增加，且铝锭占比少，而需求稳步扩大，这将令电解铝社会库存长时间保持低位，铝价 或易涨难跌。 供应：产能上限确定，铝锭占比低 2017年，我国电解铝行业实行"供给侧改革"，产 ...

SHMET 网讯： 6月国内精炼锌库存先增后降，处于往年同期偏低位，交割前后上期所锌仓单量有所累积，整体重心较5月有升，上周上期所锌库存43633吨，仓单量6372 吨；截止6月26日，SMM七地锌锭社库7.95万吨，短期内变化不大。6月中旬，各地锌锭现货升水还偏强，近日却是快速回落的态势，锌价快速走高，下游 畏高慎采，贸易商为出货而下调升水。LME锌库存延续4月底以来的降势，由4月中的高位19.5万吨降至最新的11.9万吨，注册仓单在6月中旬有一次攀升， 最新为9.1万吨，总体水平略偏低；关键指标LME0-3锌现货由前期持续小幅贴水已收复至平水附近，谨防出现类似于铜的挤仓风险。 据ILZSG最新报告，今年4月全球锌矿产量101.92万吨，环比微降0.6%，同比增加9.7%；1-4月累计产量393.7万吨，累计同比增长5.07%。一季度，海外矿山 稳步释放产量，Tara矿复产、Kipushi重启均同比有增量，Antamina矿产量虽同比小降但年度指导目标明显提升，还有OZ矿贡献增量。国内，5月SMM锌精 矿产量环比增长9.2%至32.5万吨，季节性恢复中，1-5月累计产量139.84万吨，同比下降3.4%。进 ...

Group 1 - Copper prices have recently surged, leading to a significant increase in tin prices, but the market sentiment has cooled down, resulting in a 0.6% decline in tin prices, closing at 268,110 CNY per ton [1] - The supply of tin from Myanmar is recovering slowly, providing short-term support for prices, but the long-term recovery expectations are clear, which may restrict upward price movement [1] - The operating rate of refined tin smelting enterprises in Yunnan and Jiangxi has slightly increased, reaching 50.97% as of last week, but production enthusiasm remains low due to supply shortages and maintenance [1] Group 2 - The recent decline in demand from the photovoltaic industry and the electronics sector has contributed to a weak market performance, with downstream consumers showing a cautious attitude towards high prices [1] - The social inventory of tin ingots has shifted from a depletion phase to a slight accumulation, indicating a change in market dynamics [1] - Expectations for the future suggest that tin prices may experience a slight decline, as the fundamental factors do not support a sustained increase, despite the recent high price levels [2]

Core Viewpoint - Nornickel anticipates a decline in financial performance for the year due to low metal prices, high interest rates, a strong ruble, and global trade disputes [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - Nornickel expects significant negative impacts on financial indicators due to high geopolitical uncertainty, escalating trade disputes, risks of global economic slowdown, and tightening monetary policies [1] - The company faces challenges from a strong ruble, low metal prices, inflation, and high debt servicing costs [1] - The Russian central bank's key interest rate of 20% is seen as a major drag on the economy, leading to a substantial slowdown this year [1] Group 2: Investment and Dividends - Difficult conditions have forced Nornickel to reduce investments and postpone certain projects [1] - The board of directors has recommended not to pay dividends for the 2024 performance, stating that increasing debt levels to pay dividends is inappropriate [1] Group 3: Market Outlook - Nornickel's vice president, Anton Berlin, predicts that the palladium market will remain balanced in 2025, while the nickel market will be oversupplied [2] - The automotive industry, a major consumer of these metals, is still in crisis [2] - Berlin criticized Indonesia for flooding the global market with cheap nickel, harming other producers, and noted that approximately 40% of nickel producers are currently operating at a loss [2] - Nornickel aims to ensure that global trade disputes do not affect its export volumes and intends to sell all of its produced products [2]