隔夜美国科技股再遭抛售，海外风险偏好不佳，工业品普遍下挫，铜价难逃跌势，今日晚间市场较为关 注的美国通胀数据即将出炉，市场将根据数据表现继续评估美联储货币政策前景。 周中上期所铜仓单持续增加，今日公布的上期所周度库存大概率增加较多，且最近LME和COMEX铜库 存同步增加，全球显性库存累增背景下，铜价有所承压。 沪铜夜盘下跌，日内延续弱势姿态，收盘下跌2.24%，期价守住100000关口。外围风险偏好再度转弱， 期市氛围偏空，全球铜显性库存持续累积，沪铜走势承压。 （文华综合） 对于铜价走势，光大期货表示，铜价近期走势与海外金融市场和贵金属表现有一定趋同性，这表明当前 运行逻辑仍依赖于金融属性和市场情绪，整体仍以震荡偏多行情看待。策略上，建议维持逢低买入思 路，但春节假期即将到来，节日期间外盘地缘扰动仍然较强，建议轻仓过节。 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that the tin market has experienced a significant decline, with the main contract dropping by 7.05% to 365,400 yuan/ton, primarily driven by macroeconomic sentiment rather than fundamental changes in the tin market [1] - The supply of tin ore has shown signs of easing, particularly with the resumption of tin mining in Myanmar and the normalization of tin ingot exports from Indonesia, leading to expectations of a more stable long-term supply [1] - The downstream market is entering the Chinese New Year holiday period, with most solder manufacturers halting operations and low procurement willingness due to previous stockpiling during price corrections [1] Group 2 - As the Chinese New Year approaches, most domestic tin smelting enterprises are expected to gradually enter a production halt, with demand-side replenishment nearly completed and only sporadic essential transactions occurring [2] - The core supply tightness in the mining sector remains unchanged, and short-term price fluctuations are anticipated to continue [2]

高盛预计，2026年和2027年全球锌需求将分别增长约2%。 该行表示，目前尚不认为需要中国持续出口锌来平衡全球市场，但指出中国将在缓解临时性供应紧张方 面发挥越来越重要的作用，未来几年出口套利机会可能更频繁出现。 2月12日（周四），高盛表示，预计今年全球锌市场将出现小幅过剩，主要受矿山供应增长和精矿去库 存推动，同时需求保持稳定。 但该投行在报告中指出，预计2027年和2028年矿山供应增速将显著放缓，届时中国以外市场将转为短 缺。 ...

在印尼和南美供应中断以及关税扰动推动下，铜价于2025年上涨，并延续涨势至今年，如今再度回落。 周四COMEX3月铜期货合约下跌3.02%，结算价报每磅5.7855美元，较两周前高点已回落12%。伦敦金属交易所（LME）三个月期铜下跌2.21%。 卫星数据显示1月冶炼厂活动量创近十年监测以来最低水平，加剧了铜市的不确定性。 Earth-i最新发布的SAVANT全球铜冶炼指数显示，1月全球14.3%的冶炼产能处于停产状态，较12月下降2.5%，在行业传统旺季出现显著下滑。这也是七年来 同期首次出现两位数闲置率，当前闲置率较三年均值高出6.8%。Earth-i卫星覆盖全球约95%的冶炼产能。 全球总数据掩盖了显著的区域差异。亚太地区同比降幅最为显著，尽管环比12月实现增长（该地区为唯一实现环比增长的区域），但仍贡献了超过85万吨的 产能下降量。该地区持续遭受重大扰动冲击，包括菲律宾Isabel Leyte（PASAR）冶炼厂关闭，以及印尼Gresik和Manyar冶炼厂临时停产。两家印尼工厂均因 9月Grasberg 矿泥石流事件被迫停产，该事件导致上下游作业全面受阻。 南美洲和欧洲的活跃产能均下降逾10万吨。南 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article indicates that both domestic and international copper prices are experiencing a decline, with current losses exceeding 2% [2] - The recent sell-off in U.S. technology stocks has negatively impacted overseas risk appetite, leading to a general downturn in industrial commodities, including copper [2] - The price difference between COMEX copper and LME copper has turned negative, reflecting seasonal weakness in the domestic market and an evident accumulation of global copper inventories [2] Group 2 - The article highlights that the pressure on copper prices is increasing due to the visible accumulation of copper stocks globally [2] - The ongoing seasonal effects in the domestic market are contributing to the downward trend in copper prices [2] - The overall sentiment in the market remains bearish, as industrial commodities are broadly declining amid unfavorable external conditions [2]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights a significant decline in the prices of nickel and tin in the night session, with nickel dropping over 4% and tin falling nearly 5% in early trading today [1] - The overnight performance of U.S. stocks, precious metals, and cryptocurrencies showed a substantial decline, raising concerns about increasing liquidity risks that have spread to the non-ferrous metals sector [1] - The basic metals sector is experiencing widespread losses, with all major metals showing negative performance [1]

阿沃伊蒂斯称，约90%的矿权由个人持有，其余为企业持有。 "这类矿权中，有很多原本就属于投机性质的个人。" 他表示，部分企业已与政府达成协议缩减所持矿 权数量，其中包括墨西哥矿企Industrias Pe?oles与Minera Autlán。 （文华综合） 2月12日（周四），墨西哥经济部矿业主管费尔南多·阿沃伊蒂斯（Fernando Aboitiz）表示，自 2024年 10月以来，墨西哥政府已收回1,126个采矿特许权，涉及面积88.9万公顷。 他在周四总统例行晨间新闻发布会上称，个人及企业被收回特许权的原因是未缴纳采矿权维持费用，且 未提交统计数据或进展报告。 一份演示材料显示，这些矿权多数位于墨西哥北部及中部地区，包括索诺拉州、奇瓦瓦州、科阿韦拉 州、杜兰戈州和萨卡特卡斯州。 ...

当季，受供应紧张以及汽车、包装和基础设施行业需求稳定的支撑，全球铝价保持坚挺。 在政府主导的基础设施支出和制造业增长的带动下，国内对非铁金属的需求也获得提振。 在印度，该公司铜业务收入增长33%，而上游和下游铝业务分别增长6%和22%。 2月12日（周四），印度铝业公司（Hindalco Industries）公布，尽管铝和铜价格走强，但由于成本上涨 及美国子公司Novelis业务中断拖累业绩，该公司第三季度利润下滑45%。 这家隶属于Aditya Birla Group的金属生产商公布，截至12月31日的三个月，合并净利润为204.9亿卢 比，上年同期为373.5亿卢比。 利润下滑主要源于一笔261.0亿卢比的例外支出，该支出与纽约Oswego工厂的中断有关。 其美国子公司Novelis主要为饮料罐制造商和汽车制造商供应轧制铝材，去年其纽约工厂发生的火灾造 成了影响。 业绩公布前一天，该公司表示，Novelis火灾将使其2026年现金流减少13亿至16亿美元，公司目标是在 第二季度末左右恢复生产。 得益于印度业务的强劲表现、铜销量上升以及增值铝产品增长，该公司合并收入增长14%，达到6652.1 亿卢比。 ...

Core Viewpoint - LME aluminum prices reached a near two-week high due to South32's confirmation of production suspension at its Mozambique smelter, but subsequently, all metal prices declined amid worsening investor sentiment and a drop in other financial markets [1][3]. Group 1: Metal Prices - LME three-month aluminum fell by $3, or 0.1%, closing at $3,100.00 per ton after earlier reaching a high of $3,163.50 per ton [1][2]. - LME three-month copper decreased by $291, or 2.21%, closing at $12,875.50 per ton, despite having previously reached a record high of $14,527.50 per ton on January 29 [5]. - LME three-month nickel dropped by $452, or 2.53%, closing at $17,428.00 per ton, reversing a 2.2% gain from the previous day [5]. - LME three-month zinc fell by $32.50, or 0.95%, closing at $3,374.00 per ton [6]. - LME three-month lead decreased by $15.50, or 0.78%, closing at $1,977.50 per ton [7]. - LME three-month tin increased by $28, or 0.06%, closing at $49,663.00 per ton [8]. Group 2: Company and Market Context - South32 confirmed that its Mozambique aluminum plant will undergo maintenance next month due to drought affecting power supply [3]. - The company reported higher-than-expected profits for the first half of the year [4]. - The U.S. stock market declined, influenced by a sell-off in software and tech stocks, while gold prices fell to a near one-week low due to strong U.S. labor market data undermining expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts [4].

Core Viewpoint - Marubeni Corporation reported that aluminum inventories at Japan's three major ports decreased to 312,200 tons by the end of January, representing a month-on-month decline of approximately 1.5% [1] Group 1 - The data was collected from the ports of Yokohama, Nagoya, and Osaka [1]