12月3日(周三)，高盛将2026年上半年伦敦金属交易所(LME) 铜均价预测上调至每吨10,710美元，此前预 测为10,415美元/吨。 该行同时指出，预计LME铝价将在2026年第四季度跌至2,350美元/吨。 ...

沪铜早间小幅低开，日内震荡走强，收盘上涨0.13%。最近宏观氛围尚好，但铜价刷新高位过后需求转 弱，期价继续上行略显乏力，市场需要看到更多利多信号。 近期市场对于美联储12月是否降息的押注出现了较大变化，当前投资者预计后续货币政策整体偏鸽，市 场风险偏好整体偏暖，为铜价高位运行提供温床。 （文华综合） 对于铜价走势，金瑞期货表示，近期宏观降息预期升温，基本面CSPT共识消息强化未来精铜转紧预 期，短期宏微观在预期层面有合力。但现实尚需兑现，铜价偏强边际或放缓，未来关注政策路径，以及 非美能否兑现去库。 矿紧局面困扰铜市已久，最近隐隐有向冶炼端传导的迹象，且国内冶炼厂表态明年将减产应对，供应端 担忧再度提振铜价走势。截至周初机构统计的数据显示，国内精铜社会库存仍在进一步回落，不过最近 铜价整体回归高位区间，下游采购需求受到一定的抑制，现货升水状态更多是受市场货源有限影响。最 近精铜杆企业成交较为平淡，新增订单显著减少。与此同时，最近精废价差有所增加，但废铜需求同样 受限，整体市场活跃度一般。 ...

（文华综合） 当前锡价高位运行背景下，下游企业询价及挂单意愿清淡，观望情绪愈发浓厚，现货市场成交维持平淡 态势。下游订单以刚需为主，消费电子领域需求不振，终端企业当前以消化库存为核心，刚需采买节奏 平缓，终端订单恢复进程缓慢，整体需求端支撑力度偏弱。综合来看，锡市呈现"供应担忧主导价格上 涨，实际需求支撑不足"的分化格局，锡价受地缘政治扰动及供应端情绪推动显著走高，资金参与度较 高，沪锡持仓量突破10万手，短期内资金炒作氛围浓厚。 对于后市，金源期货评论表示，特朗普积极暗示哈塞特为下任美联储主席，美元小幅收跌，且日债拍卖 企稳，修复市场情绪，锡价震荡运行。当前刚果金武装冲突尚未对锡矿生产构成实质性冲击，但运输成 本上升，加剧市场对脆弱供应端的担忧。短期宏观中性偏好，且供应端支撑强化，预计锡价仍易涨难 跌。 沪锡震荡上行，主力合约收涨2.15%，报312370元/吨。近期锡价走势强劲，核心驱动因素包括三方面： 一是刚果（金）地缘局势紧张，引发市场对锡供应中断的担忧情绪；二是市场对美联储降息的预期持续 升温；三是伦沪铜价格创下历史新高，对整个有色金属板块形成情绪提振与估值传导，多重利好共振推 动锡价走强。 当前国 ...

智利海关公布的数据显示，智利11月铜出口量为124,422吨，当月对中国出口铜29,112吨。 SMM联合制作联系人 刘明康 156 5309 0867 liumingkang@smm.cn 智利11月铜矿石和精矿出口量为1,054,487吨，当月对中国出口铜矿石和精矿716,614吨。 （文华综合） 作为全球最大的铜消费国，中国产业链面临三大挑战：上游资源对外依存度攀升、中游加工环节产能过 剩、下游需求受高铜价抑制。为助力行业应对变局，上海有色网携手铜产业链企业联合编制《2026中国 铜产业链分布图》中英双语版，点击此链接即可免费领取铜产业链分布图： https://s.wcd.im/v/470opZ19l/。 ...

（文华综合） 沪锡震荡上行，主力合约涨超2%，逼近周一高点。近期锡价走势强劲，核心驱动因素包括三方面：一 是刚果（金）地缘局势紧张，引发市场对锡供应中断的担忧情绪；二是市场对美联储降息的预期持续升 温；三是伦沪铜价格创下历史新高，对整个有色金属板块形成情绪提振与估值传导，多重利好共振推动 锡价走强。 ...

Core Viewpoint - LME copper prices fell on December 2 due to a stronger dollar, decreased risk appetite, and profit-taking after reaching record highs [1] Group 1: Market Performance - On December 2, three-month copper closed at $11,145.00 per ton, down $107.00 or 0.95%, after hitting a historical high of $11,334.00 per ton on the previous day [1][2] - Year-to-date, LME copper has increased by 27%, primarily driven by concerns over potential shortages [3] Group 2: Market Sentiment and Factors - Market sentiment remains high for copper, but a correction is anticipated; prices are expected to have upward potential as long as they stay above $11,000 per ton [3] - The strong dollar has made dollar-denominated commodities more expensive for buyers using other currencies, impacting demand [3] Group 3: Supply Dynamics - The market is assessing the impact of major Chinese smelters' plans to reduce production by 10% next year, which could tighten refined copper supply [4][5] - Analysts suggest that the smelters' reduction plans reinforce the outlook for a tighter refined copper supply [5]

以下为2025年11月以来LME和上期所镍库存数据：（单位：吨） 上期所公布的数据显示，11月28日当周，沪镍库存有所累积，周度库存增加2.48%至40,782吨，增至逾 七年新高。 注：一般来说，国内外交易所库存不断下降将对期价形成支撑，反之，则对期价有所利空。 2023年以来LME和上期所镍库存对比 伦敦金属交易所（LME）公布数据显示，上周伦镍库存呈区间波动格局，最新库存水平为254,364吨， 位于逾四年相对高位。 | 日期 | LME | 上期所 | | --- | --- | --- | | 2025/12/2 | 254, 364 | | | 2025/11/28 | 254, 760 | 40, 782 | | 2025/11/27 | 255, 450 | | | 2025/11/26 | 254, 520 | | | 2025/11/25 | 253, 482 | | | 2025/11/24 | 253, 482 | | | 2025/11/21 | 253, 950 | 39, 795 | | 2025/11/20 | 254, 172 | | | 2025/11/19 | 255, ...

》查看更多金属库存信息 | 金屋 | 阵存 | 増減 变动 | | --- | --- | --- | | 铜 | 161800 | 1 +2,375 1 +1.49% | | 品 | 535900 | T -2.000 1 -0.37% | | 锌 | 52375 | 1 +350 ↑ +0.67% | | 寝 | 253074 | 1 -1,290 J -0.51% | | 铝 | 256950 | T -3,925 J -1.50% | | 锡 | 3145 | - -15 -0.47% | | 铝合金 | 1500 | 0 - 0.00% | | LME库存 | | --- | | 彩星 | 廟 | 注册仓审 | | 变动 | 注销仓单 | 变动 | | 注销占比 上日占比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 铜 | 161800 | 155500 | T | +1.67% | 6300 | -2.70% | 3.89% | 4.06% | | 분 | 006555 | 485575 | | 0.00% | 50325 ...

Group 1: Copper Price Surge - Copper prices on the London Metal Exchange (LME) reached a new high due to tightening supply expectations and a weakening dollar, closing at $11,252.00 per ton, up $63.00 or 0.56% [1] - Year-to-date, copper prices have increased by nearly 30% [1] Group 2: Market Dynamics - The China Copper Raw Material Joint Negotiation Group (CSPT) has agreed to reduce copper concentrate production capacity by over 10% for the 2026 fiscal year to improve the supply-demand fundamentals [3] - Chile's state-owned copper company, Codelco, has set record high quotes for Chinese buyers, leading some to abandon annual contracts, with premiums reaching $350 per ton above LME prices [4] - Concerns about supply disruptions and challenging negotiations for ore supply were reiterated at the recent Asian Copper Week held in Shanghai [4] Group 3: Zinc Market Insights - LME zinc inventories are at low levels, with spot prices for zinc trading at a premium of approximately $245 per ton over the three-month LME zinc price, a significant increase of $190 since the end of October [5]

Core Insights - Saudi Arabia has initiated a bidding round for three mineral exploration licenses, covering a total area of 13,000 square kilometers, as part of its efforts to accelerate the extraction of an estimated 9.4 trillion riyals (approximately $2.50 trillion) in mineral deposits [1] Group 1 - The licenses pertain to newly designated areas in Medina, Mecca, Riyadh, Qassim, and Hail regions [1] - The exploration areas are expected to yield gold, silver, copper, zinc, and lead [1]