Core Viewpoint - The analysis indicates that the adjustment phase for tin prices has likely ended, and the long-term upward trend that began in Q4 2022 is expected to continue based on macroeconomic and supply-demand factors [1][19]. Group 1: Macroeconomic Sentiment - Recent signals show a significant easing in the US-China tariff war, with important agreements reached during trade talks in Geneva and London, positively impacting global trade and economic conditions [2]. - China's manufacturing PMI for May recorded 49.5, a marginal increase, indicating a slight recovery in manufacturing activities, with production index rising to 50.7, suggesting acceleration in production [3]. Group 2: Tin Supply and Demand Factors - Tin supply is constrained due to lower-than-expected recovery in Myanmar's Wa State, with imports from Myanmar remaining at historically low levels of 1,000 to 3,000 tons per month since November 2024 [6]. - The Bisie mine in the Democratic Republic of Congo, a significant tin production area, is experiencing slow recovery due to local security issues, with current imports from this region around 3,000 tons [7]. - Domestic tin mining in China faces challenges due to declining ore grades and rising extraction costs, with regulatory actions aimed at curbing illegal mining impacting production [9]. - Processing fees for tin concentrate have hit record lows, which reflects tight supply conditions and has suppressed domestic refined tin output to below 15,000 tons per month [11]. - Both domestic and international tin inventories are in a destocking cycle, with LME tin inventories decreasing by nearly 50% since the end of last year [14]. Group 3: Demand Growth - Traditional applications of tin in electronics, home appliances, and chemicals are being supplemented by increased demand from the semiconductor and photovoltaic sectors, with global semiconductor sales projected to reach $627.6 billion in 2024, a 19.1% year-on-year increase [17]. - The semiconductor industry is in a recovery phase, with demand for tin solder materials expected to grow, and the correlation between LME tin prices and the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index is strong, indicating a close relationship between semiconductor market performance and tin demand [17].

Group 1 - Nickel prices have recently declined due to the Philippines' decision to remove the export ban on raw minerals, which has impacted market sentiment and led to a drop in prices [1] - The Philippines aims to promote domestic mining development by implementing a mineral export ban similar to Indonesia's, but the current weak demand in stainless steel and new energy sectors has dampened investment motivation [1][2] - Indonesia has become the largest producer of nickel globally, and its new nickel mining quota approval policy has slowed down the approval process, affecting market dynamics [2][3] Group 2 - Despite the recent drop in nickel prices, the supply of nickel ore remains tight due to seasonal weather impacts in both Indonesia and the Philippines, which has kept prices relatively high [3][4] - Domestic nickel iron smelting plants are experiencing losses, leading to reduced production and a decline in procurement demand [4][5] - The production of nickel intermediate products, particularly MHP, is expected to increase, which may lead to a further decline in cost levels in the industry [7][9] Group 3 - The demand for refined nickel has shown positive growth, particularly driven by the emerging need for pre-plated nickel materials in battery production, which is expected to create a significant supply-demand gap [13] - Traditional demand from stainless steel production is weakening, with notable reductions in output and a slower pace of inventory depletion [14][15] - The overall supply tightness in nickel ore and intermediate products is expected to provide cost support for nickel prices, although weak terminal demand may limit price increases [17]

6月11日（周三），全球最大的铜生产商--智利Codelco公司首席财务官Alejandro Sanhueza表示，该公司 将更加专注于公私合作伙伴关系，以提高财务状况，并提升开发新项目的能力，这些都旨在提高产量。 Codelco公司已经和自由港麦克莫兰公司（Freeport-McMoRan）在El Abra矿建立合作关系，并拥有英美 资源集团五分之一的股份。今年，其还从小型公司Enami手中收购了Quebrada Blanca资源10%股份。 Sanhueza表示，另一目标是建立联合基础设施，促进新技术的应用，或者尽量减少对环境的影响。 Codelco今年早些时候宣布了一项协议，将和英美资源集团共同经营临近的铜矿。该公司称，将在21年 内每年增加12万吨产量。 该公司也在加强自身的勘探预算，2023年和2024年平均每年增加到8,300万美元，2025-29年期间将增至 平均每年1.5亿美元。 Sanhueza表示，公私合作伙伴关系将是"增长的支柱"，而非用于大修项目或任何现有业务，以遵守公司 的国有化规定，该规定不允许其矿山接受私人资金。 Sanhueza表示："绿地计划（新项目）是我们增长战略的关键部分 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that the tin market is experiencing a tug-of-war between tight supply and loose expectations, leading to a short-term strong fluctuation in tin prices [1] - The main contract for tin closed at 265,530 yuan per ton, reflecting a slight increase of 0.69% [1] - The current trading performance in the spot market is relatively quiet, with only a few participants maintaining essential purchases due to strong observation sentiment from downstream [1] Group 2 - Tin ore supply remains tight, which is constraining production at smelting plants, with the combined operating rate in Yunnan and Jiangxi reaching 53.86% as of last Friday [1] - The operating rate of smelting enterprises in Yunnan has continued to decline, with the processing fee for 40% grade tin concentrate remaining at historical lows, nearing the cost line for smelting plants [1] - Some smelting enterprises have already halted production for maintenance, while others are gradually reducing output to cope with the current tight supply of raw materials [1] Group 3 - Thailand has decided to suspend the transportation of tin ore from Myanmar to Thailand starting June 4, which is expected to impact the monthly import of tin ore into China by 500-1,000 metal tons [2] - The ban on transportation is likely to exacerbate raw material supply concerns, although market sentiment may experience a short-term boost [2] - The demand from the semiconductor and photovoltaic sectors is slowing down, and the high prices are leading to reduced purchasing from downstream, indicating that tin prices may maintain a trend of rebound followed by consolidation [2]

Group 1: Market Overview - Copper prices have shown a narrow fluctuation since May, with market sentiment being cautious due to a tight supply from mines and weakening demand [2] - The macroeconomic environment lacks clear drivers, with potential tariff increases on copper following the U.S. tariffs on steel and aluminum, causing temporary price spikes [3] - The U.S. economy shows signs of stability with improved GDP and employment data, but concerns over fiscal deficits and credit risks keep market sentiment cautious [3] Group 2: Supply Dynamics - Global copper mine production in March was 1.969 million tons, up 11.4% month-on-month and 3.68% year-on-year, with Chile's production at a four-year high [4] - Supply disruptions are noted, including a temporary halt in operations at the Kakula copper mine due to an earthquake, while other mines remain unaffected [4] - Domestic processing fees for copper remain low, with a recent figure of -$43.29 per ton, indicating ongoing supply tightness [5] Group 3: Production and Demand - Global refined copper production for January to March was 7.058 million tons, a 3.17% year-on-year increase, driven by growth in China, the Democratic Republic of Congo, and India [6] - China's electrolytic copper production in May reached 1.1383 million tons, a 12.86% year-on-year increase, but a decline in production is expected due to tight copper ore supply [6] - Demand from downstream sectors is weakening, with reduced operating rates in copper rod, pipe, and plate manufacturers, while cable manufacturers maintain higher rates due to existing orders [8] Group 4: Inventory and Pricing - LME copper inventory has decreased rapidly, with total stocks at 132,400 tons, raising concerns about short-term supply risks [7] - Domestic copper inventory is low, and the spot premium has decreased, indicating a tightening supply situation [9] - The market is experiencing a tug-of-war between tight supply and weakening demand, leading to expectations of continued price fluctuations in the short term [9]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that the refined nickel market is experiencing a supply surplus, with prices showing volatility due to high production levels and weak demand from the stainless steel and battery sectors [1][2] - Refined nickel production remains at high levels in China, despite losses in raw material procurement and integrated high-nickel production, while the MHP project continues to yield high profits [1] - Domestic refined nickel social inventory has decreased to an eight-month low, while overseas LME inventory remains around 200,000 tons, indicating a trend of stable inventory levels [1] Group 2 - Demand for stainless steel is weak, leading to production cuts in steel mills, while the sales growth of new energy vehicles has slowed down, impacting the demand for nickel in battery production [1][2] - The production of nickel sulfate is expected to decline further in June due to reduced demand from ternary precursor enterprises and poor profit margins [1] - The macroeconomic environment remains uncertain, with fluctuating expectations for U.S. interest rate cuts, contributing to overall volatility in the non-ferrous metals market [2]

摩根士丹利（Morgan Stanley）分析师表示，美国总统特朗普决定将铝进口关税提高一倍至50%，这可 能会推高铝价格及其用户的成本。 分析师表示，以每磅20美分作为消费者在美国实物市场购买铝的溢价基准水平，将关税上调至50% 将"意味着未来铝价格将进一步上涨，以保持金属流入"美国。 高盛分析师表示，溢价必须上升至每磅0.68美元至0.70美元之间，才能充分反映关税上调的影响。 摩根士丹利在给客户的报告中写道，特朗普加征的关税还可能对美国的现货铝采购产生影响，因为消费 者可能会等待观望，看是否会有所逆转或者该政策是否会有所豁免。美国进口大量的铝。 他们补充称，如果过剩的金属被转移到其他地区，其他地区的溢价也可能受到抑制。美国政府最初对铝 征收25%的关税，导致一些生产商将铝转移到欧洲，引发了欧洲铝溢价自2025年初以来下跌，并支持了 废铝从欧盟流向美国。 策略师们表示，市场似乎也在押注铝关税的上调将增加对铜进口征税的可能性，特朗普政府目前正在根 据1962年《贸易扩张法》第232条对铜进口征税进行调查。这可以作为针对特定行业征收关税的理由， 这些关税旨在促进对国家安全至关重要的商品的国内生产。 不过，摩根 ...

6月9日（周一），伦敦金属交易所（LME）期铜上涨，受助于库存下降和对中美贸易会谈的乐观情 绪。 交易商称，这些金属大部分运往美国。由于美国对进口铜征收关税的潜在威胁，美国的铜价大幅上涨。 伦敦时间6月9日17:00(北京时间6月10日00:00)，LME三个月期铜收涨100美元或1.03%，收报每吨9,793 美元。 | | 6月9日LEE基本金属收盘报价(美元/吨) | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 我屋 | 收盘价 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | | 三个月期铜 | 9,793.00 | ↑ +100.00 ↑ +1.03% | | | 三个月期铝 | 2,479.00 | ↑ +28.50 +1.16% | | | 三个月期锌 | 2.649.50 | - -16.50 J | -0.62% | | 三个月期铅 | 1.986.50 | 1 +8.00 ↑ +0.40% | | | 三个月期镍 | 15,421.00 | 1 -66.00 -0.43% | | | 三个月期锡 | 32,709.00 | ↑ +366.00 ↑ +1.13% | | 由于担心矿山供应和LME ...

SHMET 网讯： 近期全球宏观市场氛围明显缓和，市场主题依旧是外贸环境，不过，英美和中美关贸协议达成令全球宏观市场情绪转暖，并对铜价形成了一定的积极影响。 在经历美国对外贸环境的极端施压后，5月初英美就关税贸易协议条款达成一致，市场对于全球贸易环境改善开始抱有期待，美元也由此小幅向上修复。5月 12日，商务部发布中美日内瓦经贸会谈联合声明，表示美国将修改2025年4月2日第14257号行政令中规定的对中国商品（包括香港特别行政区和澳门特别行 政区商品）加征的从价关税，其中，24%的关税在初始的90天内暂停实施，同时保留按该行政令的规定对这些商品加征剩余10%的关税。中美贸易谈判达成 重要共识推动市场短期乐观情绪，美股大幅跳空上行，市场风险情绪明显回升，铜价也一度受到此积极氛围提振。 此外，美联储5月议息会议召开，本次会议继续暂缓降息，联邦基金利率的目标区间保持4.25%至4.5%不变，与市场预期一致。联储自去年9月起连续三次会 议降息，合计降幅100个基点，自今年1月以来，美联储一直暂停行动。美联储主席鲍威尔称，高关税可能导致通胀和失业率上升，当前货币政策有适度限制 性，潜在的通胀前景良好，观望是很明确的决 ...

伦敦金属交易所（LME）期铜周五收低，受到美元走强打压，但LME铜库存持续流出以及对短期供应 的担忧限制了跌幅。 伦敦时间6月6日17:00(北京时间6月7日00:00)，LME三个月期铜收低46.50美元或0.48%，收报每吨9,693 美元。 | | | 6月6日LE基本金属收盘报价(美元/吨) | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 令屋 | 收盘价 | | 涨跌 涨跌幅 | | 三个月期铜 | 9693.00 | - | -46.50 -0.48% | | 三个月期铝 | 2450.50 | → | -27.50 -1.11% | | 三个月期锌 | 2666.00 | 一 | -20.00 -0.74% | | 三个月期铅 | 1978.50 | 1 | +0.50 ↑ +0.03% | | 三个月期镍 | 15487.00 J | | -36.00 -0.23% | | 三个月期锡 | | 32343.00 J -218.00 ↓ -0.67% | | 期铜周四曾触及逾两个月新高9,809.50美元，本周累计上涨约2%。 LME三个月期铝收低27.50美元或1.11%，至每 ...